Friday, August 5, 2011
08/05/11 Last of the Mohicans
What's with the negativity?
You should be driving home with a smile, having survived the sell off with your portfolio and your psyche intact. The sage investor will embrace the first week of August '11 the same way an entrepreneur embraces failure, or a football coach embraces the first loss of the season. Recognize it for what it is- it's not a loss (what's that amigo, can't take a freaking paper loss), it's the market paying its dues, doing the grunt work, packing its bags for zero hour, 9 am.
My take, from a LT perspective:
(a) We all knew a sell off of this magnitude (or greater) was in the cards. The sooner the better. I'll take it in August, thank you. Thanksgiving and Christmas are better celebrated against the backdrop of a rising market.
(b) There will be more sell offs over the next ten years. What better timing than to experience the first not even three months into a buy-and-hold decision?
(c) How many of you were anxiously awaiting what transpired this week? Has that anxiety not dissipated? The anticipation is always worse than the reality.
(d) When all is said and done, the 1000-point drop in the DJIA this week all but guarantees an added lift to the next bull phase. Instead of DJIA 18000, for instance, we may see DJIA 20000. JMO, of course.
Come on, guys. Celebrate the sell off. No need to work at it. Ponder the implications of the sell off, and arrive at your own conclusion(s).
Cheers!
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well said 2nd! and you friend laz 2nd's you 2nd!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/birinyi-says-bull-market-fundamentals-to-trump-emotion/2011/08/05/gIQAFhQgwI_video.html
lead post edited for clarity
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link, tof. I'm going to avoid listening to Laz for the same reason I don't chat with the inmates here.
ReplyDeleteS&P- AA+
ReplyDeleteThat must be (partly) what the market was pricing in.
ReplyDeleteGood post bro.
ReplyDeleteUS Treasury- S&P analyst has a $2T error.
ReplyDeleteIs that the money printed at night, hidden under the bed? That sneaky Timmy...
Go Ben! The Fed is throwing punches!!
ReplyDeleteOMG- That John Mauldin dude is scary looking!! To funny. I'm watching Bloom TV and I guess all these econ cats are at some stupid fishing thing in Maine.
ReplyDeleteI guess the real scary thing is I'm watching Bloom TV on a Friday night :)
ReplyDeletethanks for ruining my night Mark. now i have to think about this too.
ReplyDeleteA better QE rally?
ReplyDeletePut the money directly in the hands of the people?
TOF- It's what I do man.
ReplyDeleteMy kids call me 'The Ruiner', true story.
ReplyDeleteSoccer this weekend Mark? I have only one game indoors. Like a free weekend.
ReplyDeleteI mean T.R. That has got to be your new handle. THE RUINER! You could get a mean comic book avatar that will make everyone say. "Who is this nerd?"
ReplyDeleteYeah, Kendra is a guest player this weekend for a tourny. 2 tomorrow and 2 or 3 Sunday. I'm not as jaded and burned out as you. I still enjoy it...for now :)
ReplyDeleteRB- Do you guys have full size indoor fields ala Thunder Dome style? How much is a beer?...and is there a morning discount?
ReplyDeleteNo indoor is a converted hockey rink. Kids play
ReplyDelete7 0n 7. Its fun fast action with at least 10 goals in a match. I'm not that jaded it is just I wish there was a definitive season instead of an endless one. I might want to sit and watch Bloomberg one weekend. I am excited about the US men's team new coach. I want to see new blood out there. Is your nephew still playing at Oregon?
Well, I always thought the best answer was to print as opposed to borrow, considering the dollar is overvalued (non-competitive workforce) and the debt is unsustainable.
ReplyDeleteOh, the mighty and holy paper dollar, we pray to thee.
CP: How are those ducks doing? How do you keep them warm in the winter.
ReplyDeleteRB - How clairvoyant, or something like that... We lost three ducks to raccoons just last night, have been chasing them off all week and they finally found a way into the fly pen. Three nights ago, raccoons reached through the wire fence and caught one of the young baby ducks sleeping too close to the wire. Headless duck! They sneak up and strangle them, apparently. The pen is a large area with a net over top.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, just tonight I finally took the time to set up the trap. They probably won't be back for another couple nights, but hopefully they notice the trap.
Actually, ducks do just fine in winter above ~20*, anything less challenges them but those conditions don't typically last long. An aquarium heater keeps their water from freezing, access to clean water's important for ducks.
RB - How clairvoyant, or something like that... We lost three ducks to raccoons just last night, have been chasing them off all week and they finally found a way into the fly pen. Three nights ago, raccoons reached through the wire fence and caught one of the young baby ducks sleeping too close to the wire. Headless duck! They sneak up and strangle them, apparently. The pen is a large area with a net over top.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, just tonight I finally took the time to set up the trap. They probably won't be back for another couple nights, but hopefully they notice the trap.
Actually, ducks do just fine in winter above ~20*, anything less challenges them but those conditions don't typically last long. An aquarium heater keeps their water from freezing, access to clean water's important for ducks.
RB - How clairvoyant, or something like that... We lost three ducks to raccoons just last night, have been chasing them off all week and they finally found a way into the fly pen. Three nights ago, raccoons reached through the wire fence and caught one of the young baby ducks sleeping too close to the wire. Headless duck! They sneak up and strangle them, apparently. The pen is a large area with a net over top.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, just tonight I finally took the time to set up the trap. They probably won't be back for another couple nights, but hopefully they notice the trap.
Actually, ducks do just fine in winter above ~20*, anything less challenges them but those conditions don't typically last long. An aquarium heater keeps their water from freezing, access to clean water's important for ducks.
DANG coons. Hope its a "Have No Heart Trap." TO bad I don't live close by. I would take Ruby my coon beagle in my avatar and get them varmits! "Where the Red Fern Grows" style. Coons are not too bad in tacos. They taste like chicken.
ReplyDeleteIs it true MCD now has less debt and more cash on hand than the US gov.?
ReplyDeleteDowngrade - Definitely will be an interesting week...
ReplyDeleteThere must be some kind of contingency plan in place in anticipation of a potential downgrade. Assuming rates rise, the cutbacks will likely be accelerated and Ben may have to step up buying in order to keep the treasury funded. They've already got the ball rolling on that by sucking foreign countries into sacrificing their currencies to buy US debt as those currencies were becoming too strong against the $USD.
Hmm, I recall back in April, Geithner stating there was no chance the US balance sheet would be downgraded.
Anyway, considering the receipts are less than sales and likely to remain that way, the numbers are negative. This downgrade definitely pulls the schedule in for the cutbacks and tax hikes debate. I would anticipate emergency congressional meetings ASAP, these guys should be returning to DC from their French villas this weekend.