It's been an incredible string of 5-to-1 days, either up or down. Get me out, or let me in. Right now, it's let me in. So the bet has to be further gaps up + upside.
The question is how do you value TZOO based on GRPN's IPO price? Initially, I wanted to look at # of subscribers, but out of TZOO's 24 million subs, I'm guessing only a few million subscribe solely for the local deals.
You can't compare the companies on profit as GRPN loses money. I think the only way to objectively compare the stocks is to look at local deal revenue.
GRPN revenue last quarter was $645 million. TOF projects TZOO local deal revenue at $42 million per quarter. This is roughly 7% of GRPN's revenue per quarter. If GRPN IPOs at $15 billion, TZOO local deals segment should be valued at $1.05 billion. If GRPN IPOs at $20 billion, TZOO local deals segment should be valued at $1.4 billion.
Now, one must look at what TZOO's traditional business is worth. The easiest way to determine this imo is to look at TZOO's stock price before they announced local deals. Their stock was fluctuating between 15 and 20 dollars.
So, depending on the ultimate GRPN ipo price, I would give TZOO a fair value price of 75 based on $15 for its traditional biz plus 60 based on a GRPN $15 billion ipo. The upper end would be $104 based on $20 plus $84.
Long story short, there's no way TZOO hits either one of those targets prior to the ipo, but it certainly gives one confidence to hold for more than a day or two.
Leading up to the ipo, my guess is that there will be a media frenzy. This will be free advertising on a MASSIVE scale for both GRPN and its competitors. One might expect a surge in new subscribers and conversion rates for the industry around the ipo. Given the transparency in how the deals are progressing, the stock(s) should fluctuate almost directly with any potential new subs and conversion rates.
Jesse - I completely agree with your posts above...with one caveat: local deals on TZOO have been ramping up pretty quickly...quicker than Groupon. Back in May analysts estimated they were doing $24 Million per quarter in gross sales.
If you look at subscriber growth prior to the local deals and then extrapolate them and compare to current subscribers that might be one way of determining the # of subs they have for local deals...maybe you could add a fraction of the number of other subs to get the total subs they have for local deals???
I still think another thing to keep in mind with TZOO is the URL www.fly.com that it owns. They announced that they had 5 million searches on their site in July alone. I doubt it's a profitable segment of their biz yet but that's a great URL to own... http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/flycom-achieves-record-5-million-searches-in-july-as-new-look-and-feel-takes-off-126698523.html
T3D - I appreciate your posts. A recent graph showed insiders buying heavily at May highs and now. May was the market peak. I conclude that it is all corporate stock hype and a waste of money for the stakeholders.
CP -- I think I read somewhere that modern software allows people to hide their bids and asks and only reveal them in very small parts. This might be what Denninger is observing...
North Anna Nuclear Plant Design Limit may have been exceeded: Virginia quake's motion may have exceeded nuclear plant's design August 29, 2011 | 4:05 pm
I've said this before, but never really got a good explanation from the old timers.
Aren't people like me screwing up the 'system' that worked so well for so long? Think about it. I can day trade up to $1.6M over breakfast. Probably more leverage with straight up 3xers.
I agree with Kyle. The days of dollar cost averaging into the market for 40 years is dead. It's a wide open market(read casino) now and losers like BC are scrambling to make a few bucks on web TV and a subscription site to make up for the difference.
CP - Most nuclear power plants are an accident waiting to happen. Just my informed opinion and I have a feeling you do not disagree much.
It's one thing to be without power for days, as I experienced in St. Louis in the last decade due to usual storms. A nuclear event would be so much worse with or without a nature catastrophe.
illini - yeah, the earthquake could easily have been worse and caused the rods to break, or worse, if the dam for the cooling lake("waste heat treatment facility") had collapsed, there would be no cooling water...
We're used to being without power for days here, when a hurricane blows through. I lent my generator out for the weekend because of this.
I decided to place sell limit orders on my September TLT puts with the lowest strike prices: at $5 for 5 contracts of $109 puts I purchased for $3.95 and at $6 for 6 contracts of $110 puts I purchased at $4.30.
Also, placed a sell limit order at $15 for the 2 October $110 SPY calls I purchased at $8.90 (that's like selling SPY at $125, which was my target all along for this relief rally).
You know, folks, what will drive this rally to 1250 and possibly even 1300? Realization by big funds that the long-term Treasuries ain't going up from their current hugely overbought level, and so taking money out of them (read: investing that money in equities) is the right thing to do for now, at least until TLT hits 100.
I really question the longevity of the daily deal business. Groupon and friends seem to have all become discounts on paintball and boat tours and restaurants I wouldn't really want to eat.
Yelp today announced they are scaling back on the daily deal business.
CP, I think SVM is interesting here as well. My concern is that we are hitting a major pullback in precious metals and, if that is the case, SVM will have a tough time moving up regardless of how well the business does. I've added to my watch list for later though.
"The days of dollar cost averaging into the market for 40 years is dead."
Even though it does not seem that way because trading is done at the margins and controls short term prices, the bulk of the stock market is held by pension plans, mutual/hedge funds, insurance companies, etc. and these types of organizations are by default dollar cost averaging (they get revenues in every month and invest them).
The key for individuals like us (I think) is to take advantage of our small size and the inherent flexibility that comes with this over say a Calpers with $230 billion in assets who can't even really worry about a single million dollar investment.
"The key for individuals like us (I think) is to take advantage of our small size and the inherent flexibility that comes with this over say a Calpers with $230 billion in assets who can't even really worry about a single million dollar investment."
I agree! Did you notice Calpers target return is now modeled for 6%?
I completely disagree with the notion that buy and hold is dead...it just depends on what you want to buy and hold.
By the way, did you guys see the action in CVV yesterday? That sucker is clearly in play...I've been researching the whole graphene thing and trying to understand exactly who would be big players in it...I haven't gotten very far. ALU might have some patents on the space, NOK appears to have a big project in the works with a graphene enabled smartphone, some of the small graphite players claim to have made inroads into making graphene...but I'm not closer to making sense of it. The only takeaway I got is that both ALU and NOK might be decent buys right here...moreso NOK if the Nokia Morph phone I saw a preview of comes to fruition:
CP - I think the selling panic is over man...people freaked out way too much. There is no confirmation that we're in a recession at this point so the market won't free fall here.
Sold another 1/8th TZOO at $38.1. I think what I'm going to do is scale back to about 1k shs and just let that ride long term...I'm really warming up to the idea of having several high fliers and just letting them ride for years...
Screw it..sold the rest of TZOO at $37..thinking we might just go back to the low 30s again looking at how OPEN is trading, which I think is a proxy for them...
Any of you guys have a kindle? I just bought no, cuz it seemed crazy to be paying 9 bucks for a paper back. I'm surprised to see most e-books are about 9 bucks. Is this what you guys see?
Mark - I don't have a kindle...we have an ipad so we would just use that altho we don't have time for reading.
I agree with 2nd...this was just a shakeout. I highly doubt we retest 1,120 any time soon...maybe in several weeks if the global economy starts waning again. I'm going to be looking to add things on weakness again should a logical low risk stop out point come up.
Consistent with my recent decision to trade less...I'm taking at least 24 hours off from buying anything again. This has worked well the past few times I've traded...
.nd - Not sure of the exact date but believe it was Feb 2010'ish...
Lord, I was born a ramblin' man Tryin' to make a livin' and doin' the best I can And when it's time for leavin' I hope you'll understand That I was born a ramblin' man
My Daddy was a gambler down in Georgia He wound up on the wrong end of a gun And I was born in the back seat of a Greyhound bus Rollin' down highway 41
If you're going to trade right now, that's the only way. All of your positions are born in the back seat of a Greyhound bus. And when it's time to toss the baby out an hour later, we all understand.
Exited TZOO trade 39.30's. Had too much leverage in that one. I see some resistance at 40 on my AMTD chart. I'll be on the road for awhile. Heading to Glacier National Park on Wednesday and then to Asia for 3 months. Cash feels good at the moment although there should be a ton of trading opps.
t3d - Thanks man...some of you guys on this board are way more tech savvy than I am (ehem...David) so I'd love to get your take on graphene. With the big boys like IBM/Samsung/PKX/NOK/MSFT etc getting into it in a big way I think we really need to pay a lot of attention to it.
Thinking about that TED spread chart, it seems to me that its a coincident indicator and we need to keep that in mind.
ISM chart indicates that while averages over time are nice, the last three events were in the -9% range and may be more reflect of the times than the historical.
Also, these charts were in a report from a major banking brokerage firm which has a vested interest in keep one invested as to sheer the most sheep.
Enjoy your time in the Glacier NP, Jesse! I read somewhere that most of the glaciers have melted away there already... Are you planning to ascend some formidable mountain or just drive around the park?
Congratulations to all you guys who were able to take some decent profits on this rally, in TZOO, MITK, etc.!
My vehicle of choice is not working out too well -- TLT is up considerably today... If it rises to 110, then I'll have to bail on my September puts before they become totally worthless...
David - I was looking at TLT earlier and am curious as to why it never really pulled back when the market rallied from it's lows. Perhaps its a tell that we should be slowly going out the back door?
Granted, I'm now 100% in cash and just sitting researching stuff so I could really care less...
NOK starting to look interesting...they have a ton of cash on hand relative to mkt cap. If the NOK Morph phone ever comes to be that could be a really nice turnaround story. I wouldn't count them out just yet.
TOF- Funny that you mention DB. I've been looking at BCS and DB this morning. Looks like they could rally for a bit.
Before we get all bullish and fuzzy inside about banks and the market, we just need to take a quick glance at their monthly charts to show us future direction.
I see mega potential resistance for the Nasdaq between 2590 and 2600 from Nov '10, and the neckline from March and June. That's just a few points above. I see lots of bullish setups, but I'm gonna TRY to take it slow for now.
I like TOF's playbook here. After a big up or down day, it really, really, really pays to take at least 1 day off to gain new perspective. Otherwise your ego takes over and you start chasing.
Graphine - A monoatomic carbon structure? Poses an interesting a challenge... Similar to an epitaxial silicon process but with carbon instead... Slightly more difficult, might be an understatement.
So I found a little bit of info...
Once you've got something resembling a carbon substrate, you'd need to mask and etch it in order to obtain specific geometry and electrical characteristics:
I seem to recall one of Cramer's reply's to a caller re. over-seas banks... 'Why would I go over there to lose money when I can just as easily lose money on banks in the good ole' USA???'
Jesse - Yeah man...the market has had a good run...can it go higher? Abso freaking lutely. However, we need to clear our heads every so often and think clearer. The last thing I need to do right now after making nice gains is to chase stuff higher that I have no conviction in and then the market takes a dump. It's good for the trading book and the mind to take breaks.
Right now I'm gonna spend time researching this graphene stuff more. CVV has a pretty impressive list of customers: http://www.cvdequipment.com/company/customers/
It looks like Nanotechnology is starting to grab hold, about a decade after it was hyped like crazy. I remember watching NVEC run from $6 to $60 like 7 years ago...great company that is still probably a great investment, but it go way ahead of itself. I wouldn't be surprised to see CVV make a run to $40 or $50 to be quite honest.
I also love the drop in MMYT...would love to see it much lower..that's one I would buy and hold.
Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month. We have a HUGE monthly bar. Monthly bars of this magnitude usually close near the lows of the month. If they do not, they tend to test the lows the following month. I'm also noticing VIX reaching support as well as seeing possible setups in the inverses.
I'm not saying we are definitely going to crash tomorrow, but it is the last day of the most volatile month in memory. It is a far more pivotal day than any other. I do not want to risk it.
"Some Federal Reserve officials favored making a bolder move Aug. 9 to try and boost a stubbornly weak U.S. economy, minutes of their last policy-setting meeting showed. The most potent tool, a third round of asset purchases that markets have dubbed QE3, was raised as a possibility by some officials, according to Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, released with the customary three-week lag Tuesday.
Some officials suggested that extending the average duration of the Fed's existing portfolio by selling bonds with short maturities and buying those with longer maturities could have a similar effect as buying new securities outright."
Heading into the last day, the Nasdaq has moved 200 points in 3 trading sessions coinciding w/ several overbought indicators. This is all within the confines of a new bear market (defined as the 50 dma/200dma crossover).
Jesse - Appreciate your warning. I've eliminated most of my swing trade positions (except SVM, DNN, & JBLU). Hopefully I will have the discipline to only day-trade (ala Vad) after this...
David- I haven't made any plans yet for my trip. I rarely do. I generally just jump in my car and go. I just need to be a little worried about bears given their friskiness this year.
Two weeks ago Jesse and I debated which high flier stocks would run the most when the market runs...I remember thinking: why not just buy BGU? If the market was to rise to 1,260 then BGU would go up 35% or so. Of all of the companies I have purchased since the bottom last week, none have beaten BGU, which is up 27% from when I bought DECK / TZOO / BTU...
Graphine - Apparently someone has developed a chemical vapor deposition process to deposit graphite, which they call graphine (I assume that means a non-amorphous carbon FLG(few layers graphine or SLG(single layer graphine) and from there, were able to build some working gate stacks:
Still, I wonder how robust their carbon deposition process is, chemical vapor deposition of carbon might present a huge challenge outside of a laboratory. Not sure who developed or owns this CVD process, possibly AMAT or more likely the sematech consortium.
Lots of hoopla about the possibilities but not much about how or where these thin films are coming from...
T3d -- Thanks much for reminding me that I need to have the discipline to obey my trading style and not become distracted by other peoples' approaches.
I decided to take profits on my S&P calls now and just sold them at $13.60 (purchased them at $8.90). I hope I sold too early and S&P will keep moving up, since in that case TLT will be pressured to move down, and at this point I am just hoping to get out of my TLT puts alive...
I'm in cash and forcing myself to take a break. If I was forced to trade I would be scaling into shorts. I think we eventually have to re-test those lows from earlier this month.
Well, at least I sold my SPY calls at the peak of the day today... Interesting -- right before the close, SPY plunged down AND TLT moved down as well. Crazy market...
Mark -- congrats on your MITK trade! I sold out my position at $7.25 when S&P was testing 1120 and put that money into S&P calls and TLT puts. The former have already worked out well, but the latter are still not working...
Thanks guys, but I still have 17K original shares to 'get rid of'...or I have to reload for the third time. It's been a wild ride and one I'm ready to exit honestly. Cash is feeling much more comfortable right now. I guess I expect another test of the lows before we rally into year end.
Another thing on my mind is a lack of work soon. Those $20K daily swings come with a certain degree of pressure.
Kyle - "But since graphene is a gapless semiconductor, these transistors have high off-state leakage and nonsaturating drive currents."
Obviously leakage makes for undesirable noise factors. I don't know what he's trying to say in the second half, a saturated transistor is slow to turn off. He also doesn't note much about the structure or if it's been optimized.
Everyone wants a smaller device(low capacitance) to increase speed, and if that can't be achieved with a graphine film then there's not much point going that route. Okay, maybe for analog applications, but expensive saphire substrates are already being used there. Digital could go that route sub ~14nm, I think is what they've been contemplating anyway, right?
So even if graphite FLG/SLG by CVD/PECVD/MEB/etc. deposition is feasible, graphite might not be the wonder material presumed... Look towards saphire substrates for the next shrink (again, prohibitively expensive).
Also, and I know this sounds crazy, but my soccer schedule is really going to get crazy for the next 2 months.
Yesterday we found out Hailey, our 6 year old, has been asked to take a roster spot on the U-9 team. She's been practicing with them all year, but this will be her first games. There is a tourny this weekend. She's on cloud nine! Know what I'm proud of? Not that she is good enough to play, but at 6 she has been able to focus during practice and pay attention! A lot of the 7,8 and 9 year olds on the team cant!!
TOF- I'm finishing a big job right now and have nothing in the hopper. Am I worried about it, not really. But it usually takes about 6 months from bidding to actually starting a job, so I'm already looking to next spring. Since I do ultra high end stuff, $2+M, and don't advertise etc. it's really hard to make a overall call on the industry due to what I see. Things are soft though...and not just for me.
I will be taking you up though on the few week stay at your pad. Don't worry, I'll call the day before we all show up.
As opposed to trying to guess at whether graphine will become a semiconductor technology, I think I'd start looking at gallium arsinide(GaAs) substrate manufacturers. GaAs should remain in strong demand for all those smart phones and RF devices, and faster microprocessors might have to use GaAs
Screw it - I'm taking off the rest of the week and gonna have a stress free Labor Day...i'll be lurking here fellas. Cheers to you guys making some coin!
According to Hulbert's contrarian analysis, we still have a long way to go higher...given how skeptical people are of this rally, I gotta say he makes a lot of sense:
If people were stubbornly bullish at the beginning of the year despite the market giving way to lower prices, then being stubbornly bearish right now would most likely yield higher prices...
So if people are expecting 1,250 as a place to short...either right here is where they should short...or more likely the market goes to 1,300 and recaptures the 200 DMA...that would piss off a lot of people
I have to assume that today's high was THE top going forward in a weekly bear flag pattern. We'll see how the pattern develops. Q's have already given up all of today's gains after hours.
More on Gallium Arsinide (III-V) (Substrates, not deposited):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallium_arsenide
Or, it appears they're also considering Germanium, not sure how they plan on implementing any of this, via substrate or perhaps epitaxial deposition...
" Technology trends to watch 7, July 2011 Pete Singer Editor-in-Chief
Beyond fully depleted devices with high-k metal gates, Steegen said the industry will have to change how it employs stressors (i.e., tensile compressive nitride liners at the epi source/drain) to improve device performance. "When you start scaling the dimensions to 14nm and below, they become less and less effective," she said. "One way of improving the device performance is by engineering the channel mobility." The way to do that is by introducing new materials, such as germanium and III-Vs, in the channel. Steegen said imec has already been working for a long time on germanium devices, so that work is well established at this point. "A lot of focus these days is on the III-V devices. We're very proud at imec that we could demonstrate the first transistor built on a III-V material, grown on a 300mm silicon substrate," she said. However, there's still a lot of work to do on these III-V transistors. "Clearly, the substrate defects are a big issue. The other one is the passivation of the III-V materials," Steegen said.
Looking even further out, Steegen said there were many flavors of exploratory devices that could replace the MOSFET. "One of them that's really getting a lot of attention right now and is being studied quite a bit is the tunnel FET," she said. TunnelFETs use band-to-band tunneling in a gate-controlled heterojunction type of device to be able to reduce the subthreshold voltage to below 60mV/decade. "That's a pretty unique device and the way you do that is just by filtering your energy through that gate voltage and allow tunneling in the on-state of the device," Steegen said. "The key issue of this device is the on current. We can't get enough drive into these devices. We need to improve the tunnel efficiency of the source of the device by implementing new materials. It's pretty much a given at this point that a silicon-based heterojunction device is not going to work so we have to again adopt new materials, like germanium and III-V, to build this device and improve the tunneling efficiency. It's going to have to be seen if the on-current of this device can meet industry requirements," Steegen said."
Kyle - Well yes, until you get to the mechanical limit of the size of atom you're attempting to manipulate.
I think some of these lines are already just several atoms wide, carbon atoms are fairly small, I suppose, I haven't heard too much about integrating graphene films, leave that one to the propellerheads. More about self-assembly or "tiny robot" assembly and cheaper manufacturing techniques in general. I still have yet to see a "lights out" fab with my own eyes.
Kyle / CP > I'm sitting on the sidelines reading as I'm too dull to add anything toe the conversation.
Jesse - I think I agree with you...in fact, ultimately whether or not we rally in the short term, I think we have significant more downside risk. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1,010 again.
GTI - TOF - Agreed, graphite components are something the world will always need, that's for sure. Arc furnaces for melting recycled metals, brushes for electric motors, bushings, compressor seals, on and on...
Kyle - "December 29, 1959. Feynman considered the possibility of direct manipulation of individual atoms as a more powerful form of synthetic chemistry than those used at the time."
Fenman had some pretty good insight, one often overlooked vector for blood poisoning comes from absorption through the skin of toxic materials. The advent of nanoparticles that are so small as to be able to measily move through the epidermal layer into the blood stream opens up an entire world of possibilities from medical to outright hazardous.
Some of the new sunscreens, for instance, are said to make use of nanoparticles, yet aren't labeled as such, which means people who apply these products to the skin may suffer from blood poisoning. Otherwise "harmless" aluminum through the skin into the blood could present unknown consequences.
The question is how do you value TZOO based on GRPN's IPO price? Initially, I wanted to look at # of subscribers, but out of TZOO's 24 million subs, I'm guessing only a few million subscribe solely for the local deals.
ReplyDeleteYou can't compare the companies on profit as GRPN loses money. I think the only way to objectively compare the stocks is to look at local deal revenue.
GRPN revenue last quarter was $645 million. TOF projects TZOO local deal revenue at $42 million per quarter. This is roughly 7% of GRPN's revenue per quarter. If GRPN IPOs at $15 billion, TZOO local deals segment should be valued at $1.05 billion. If GRPN IPOs at $20 billion, TZOO local deals segment should be valued at $1.4 billion.
Now, one must look at what TZOO's traditional business is worth. The easiest way to determine this imo is to look at TZOO's stock price before they announced local deals. Their stock was fluctuating between 15 and 20 dollars.
So, depending on the ultimate GRPN ipo price, I would give TZOO a fair value price of 75 based on $15 for its traditional biz plus 60 based on a GRPN $15 billion ipo. The upper end would be $104 based on $20 plus $84.
Long story short, there's no way TZOO hits either one of those targets prior to the ipo, but it certainly gives one confidence to hold for more than a day or two.
Leading up to the ipo, my guess is that there will be a media frenzy. This will be free advertising on a MASSIVE scale for both GRPN and its competitors. One might expect a surge in new subscribers and conversion rates for the industry around the ipo. Given the transparency in how the deals are progressing, the stock(s) should fluctuate almost directly with any potential new subs and conversion rates.
ReplyDeleteJesse - I completely agree with your posts above...with one caveat: local deals on TZOO have been ramping up pretty quickly...quicker than Groupon. Back in May analysts estimated they were doing $24 Million per quarter in gross sales.
ReplyDeleteIf you look at subscriber growth prior to the local deals and then extrapolate them and compare to current subscribers that might be one way of determining the # of subs they have for local deals...maybe you could add a fraction of the number of other subs to get the total subs they have for local deals???
I still think another thing to keep in mind with TZOO is the URL www.fly.com that it owns. They announced that they had 5 million searches on their site in July alone. I doubt it's a profitable segment of their biz yet but that's a great URL to own...
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/flycom-achieves-record-5-million-searches-in-july-as-new-look-and-feel-takes-off-126698523.html
SVM - Interesting chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://savecapitalism.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/silvercorp4.png?w=578&h=246
http://screencast.com/t/RkDbL6osYoDX
ReplyDeleteAloha
t3d- It's encouraging to see historical data illustrating the power of negativity as a driving force.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we're not going to have a commodity backed currency anytime in the future, we can all breath easier now:
ReplyDelete"CNBC poll finds that 71% of respondents support return to gold standard, 22% don't"
Report from YHOO:
ReplyDeleteS&P - Day's Range: 1,177.91 - 1,210.28
But I don't see that range on my broker page:
1190.40-1210.21
What's up with that, fellas?
Were the shorts hoping to see NY flooded squeezed today?
ReplyDeleteT3D - I appreciate your posts. A recent graph showed insiders buying heavily at May highs and now. May was the market peak. I conclude that it is all corporate stock hype and a waste of money for the stakeholders.
ReplyDeleteGreat charts, T3d -- keep posting them!
ReplyDeleteRE: market illiquidity as observed by Denninger
ReplyDeleteCP -- I think I read somewhere that modern software allows people to hide their bids and asks and only reveal them in very small parts. This might be what Denninger is observing...
CP- I also recently read comments about liquidity in the /ES. Looking into it more now.
ReplyDeleteT3D- Keep um coming!
North Anna Nuclear Plant Design Limit may have been exceeded: Virginia quake's motion may have exceeded nuclear plant's design
ReplyDeleteAugust 29, 2011 | 4:05 pm
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2011/08/virginia-quakes-motion-may-have-exceeded-nuclear-plants-design.html
CP- I have...
ReplyDeleteLow 1177
High 1210
Not sure what your getting at.
SPY was..
118.06
121.43
These #'s are from Schwab.
Mark - According to my broker, the SPX low was 1190.40, high was 1210.28
ReplyDeleteCP- Wow, that's way off. Does it show that way on the charts?
ReplyDeleteI've said this before, but never really got a good explanation from the old timers.
ReplyDeleteAren't people like me screwing up the 'system' that worked so well for so long? Think about it. I can day trade up to $1.6M over breakfast. Probably more leverage with straight up 3xers.
I agree with Kyle. The days of dollar cost averaging into the market for 40 years is dead. It's a wide open market(read casino) now and losers like BC are scrambling to make a few bucks on web TV and a subscription site to make up for the difference.
The real market is right here.
CP - Most nuclear power plants are an accident waiting to happen. Just my informed opinion and I have a feeling you do not disagree much.
ReplyDeleteIt's one thing to be without power for days, as I experienced in St. Louis in the last decade due to usual storms. A nuclear event would be so much worse with or without a nature catastrophe.
Hmm, so I reloaded the page and now the numbers match yours...
ReplyDeleteSee, so based on erroneous numbers, that's why I thought we had a gap to the upside that needed to fill.
ReplyDeleteGlad I didn't short on that, and someone told me I was incorrect thinking there was an open gap!
illini - yeah, the earthquake could easily have been worse and caused the rods to break, or worse, if the dam for the cooling lake("waste heat treatment facility") had collapsed, there would be no cooling water...
ReplyDeleteWe're used to being without power for days here, when a hurricane blows through. I lent my generator out for the weekend because of this.
Hmm, yep, I'm realizing once again how it's unwise to put stock in what BC might say...
ReplyDeleteSolar - Seems to be running since Japan vowed to invest in alternative energy, and perhaps the earthquake which shut down reactors on the east coast?
ReplyDeleteI decided to place sell limit orders on my September TLT puts with the lowest strike prices: at $5 for 5 contracts of $109 puts I purchased for $3.95 and at $6 for 6 contracts of $110 puts I purchased at $4.30.
ReplyDeleteAlso, placed a sell limit order at $15 for the 2 October $110 SPY calls I purchased at $8.90 (that's like selling SPY at $125, which was my target all along for this relief rally).
You know, folks, what will drive this rally to 1250 and possibly even 1300? Realization by big funds that the long-term Treasuries ain't going up from their current hugely overbought level, and so taking money out of them (read: investing that money in equities) is the right thing to do for now, at least until TLT hits 100.
ReplyDeleteI really question the longevity of the daily deal business. Groupon and friends seem to have all become discounts on paintball and boat tours and restaurants I wouldn't really want to eat.
ReplyDeleteYelp today announced they are scaling back on the daily deal business.
CP, I think SVM is interesting here as well. My concern is that we are hitting a major pullback in precious metals and, if that is the case, SVM will have a tough time moving up regardless of how well the business does. I've added to my watch list for later though.
"The days of dollar cost averaging into the market for 40 years is dead."
ReplyDeleteEven though it does not seem that way because trading is done at the margins and controls short term prices, the bulk of the stock market is held by pension plans, mutual/hedge funds, insurance companies, etc. and these types of organizations are by default dollar cost averaging (they get revenues in every month and invest them).
The key for individuals like us (I think) is to take advantage of our small size and the inherent flexibility that comes with this over say a Calpers with $230 billion in assets who can't even really worry about a single million dollar investment.
"The key for individuals like us (I think) is to take advantage of our small size and the inherent flexibility that comes with this over say a Calpers with $230 billion in assets who can't even really worry about a single million dollar investment."
ReplyDeleteI agree! Did you notice Calpers target return is now modeled for 6%?
SPY @ 120.20 for a scalp.
ReplyDeleteCan you imagine trying to build a retirement portfolio with 6% return?
ReplyDeleteNo wonder these States are getting into so much trouble with low returns and early retirements.
Off at 120.60. Wow, that was easy.
ReplyDeleteBB- Crazy hun? I wouldn't be surprised if all of these gov. plans go the way of the dodo bird.
ReplyDeleteI completely disagree with the notion that buy and hold is dead...it just depends on what you want to buy and hold.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, did you guys see the action in CVV yesterday? That sucker is clearly in play...I've been researching the whole graphene thing and trying to understand exactly who would be big players in it...I haven't gotten very far. ALU might have some patents on the space, NOK appears to have a big project in the works with a graphene enabled smartphone, some of the small graphite players claim to have made inroads into making graphene...but I'm not closer to making sense of it. The only takeaway I got is that both ALU and NOK might be decent buys right here...moreso NOK if the Nokia Morph phone I saw a preview of comes to fruition:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IX-gTobCJHs
Keep an eye on TZOO...gonna be a volatile open.
Good to see a few posts this morning... Good morning all!
ReplyDeleteSo is this market really going up now, or what?
ReplyDeleteI'm totally confused at this point.
Still long SVM, it's priced for sub $20 silver.
ReplyDeleteStill looking to get back into GMO, but not at this price... Too far away from obtaining their permits for any kind of meaningful rally, me thinks.
CP - I think the selling panic is over man...people freaked out way too much. There is no confirmation that we're in a recession at this point so the market won't free fall here.
ReplyDeleteI sold 1/8th of my TZOO position at $37.3 just because it was too large for me for such a volatile company. I may scale back some more...
ReplyDeleteSold another 1/8th TZOO at $38.1. I think what I'm going to do is scale back to about 1k shs and just let that ride long term...I'm really warming up to the idea of having several high fliers and just letting them ride for years...
ReplyDelete"I completely disagree with the notion that buy and hold is dead...it just depends on what you want to buy and hold."
ReplyDeleteOMG what a softball! I'll just let it go :)
Good job with the ZOO dude!
BAC- Man, look at that trap.
ReplyDeleteTook my original cost basis in TZOO out at $38. Letting the profits ride for longer term. I'll join 2nd in the LT buy and hold cell
ReplyDeleteTOF- You wont make it till the end of the week.
ReplyDeleteHow in the hell are the QQQ's flat. Everything I checked are down.
ReplyDeleteScrew it..sold the rest of TZOO at $37..thinking we might just go back to the low 30s again looking at how OPEN is trading, which I think is a proxy for them...
ReplyDelete2nd - I'll join you one day in the cell I promise...
ReplyDeleteDo you guys see a 119.26 print in SPY just now?
ReplyDeletehaha Mark...you got me! I hate being confined in that damn cell.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Crap! I was going to change it until 'the end of the day' and you already bailed!!
ReplyDeleteYour the best man! :))
Mark - I'm too damn jittery about this freaking market...
ReplyDeleteI'm still going to track and post my findings on TZOO local deals. I updated this morning and the continue to look good.
In this mini pullback I think it's good to watch the following companies to see how much they pull back:
ReplyDeleteWHR
TIF
M
JCP
CMI
FDX
TXN
Sold the UXG trade from 5.79 today at 6.01
ReplyDeleteMight take off the VZ today in the B&H port for a couple points gain. Looking at trimming some back.
Okay guys, I'm not one for going short at this point and TOF thinks we're putting/put in a bottom, so I'll try re-entering or adding to my positions.
ReplyDeleteIt's okay even if I don't get my price, I'm pretty long SVM anyway (still underwater)
SVM or GMO, we'll see. I think GMO tries one last shakeout...
Another shakeout. Awesome.
ReplyDeleteAny of you guys have a kindle? I just bought no, cuz it seemed crazy to be paying 9 bucks for a paper back. I'm surprised to see most e-books are about 9 bucks. Is this what you guys see?
ReplyDeleteOK, took off 5K shares of MITK @ 9.25 that I bought at 8.00/7.78.
ReplyDelete2nd might be right here. Things have really sold of hard. Perhaps that CC # was totally priced in.
ReplyDeleteTranys now green.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteA lot of older books (off copyright) are free at gutenberg.org.
Many of the others can be downloaded from the torrent sites if you want to avoid paying.
Mark - I don't have a kindle...we have an ipad so we would just use that altho we don't have time for reading.
ReplyDeleteI agree with 2nd...this was just a shakeout. I highly doubt we retest 1,120 any time soon...maybe in several weeks if the global economy starts waning again. I'm going to be looking to add things on weakness again should a logical low risk stop out point come up.
BB- Thanks! I don't need to read anything new. Just for enjoyment.
ReplyDeleteMan, look at SVM go!
I would like to take back my decision to sell my "long term" trailer in TZOO mr. market...thanks.
ReplyDeleteConsistent with my recent decision to trade less...I'm taking at least 24 hours off from buying anything again. This has worked well the past few times I've traded...
ReplyDeleteC looks like an inverted h&s if it gets down to the mid $28 range. That might be a good trade...buy at $28.5 and stop out at $27.5
ReplyDeleteGMO - Okay guys, the BOM Record Of Decision is probably close to being published, so I've decided to try getting back into my core position...
ReplyDeleteSVM - Well finally! Got a ways to go, but it might not take long considering there's such a price discrepancy. ;)
ReplyDeleteOverheard in the caboose:
ReplyDelete'If you're long, you're strong
If in cash, it's trash
If you're short, you're gored, you're gored, you're gored'
Along with 99 bottles of beer...
.nd - Not sure of the exact date but believe it was Feb 2010'ish...
ReplyDeleteLord, I was born a ramblin' man
Tryin' to make a livin' and doin' the best I can
And when it's time for leavin'
I hope you'll understand
That I was born a ramblin' man
My Daddy was a gambler down in Georgia
He wound up on the wrong end of a gun
And I was born in the back seat of a Greyhound bus
Rollin' down highway 41
If you're going to trade right now, that's the only way. All of your positions are born in the back seat of a Greyhound bus. And when it's time to toss the baby out an hour later, we all understand.
Now who do you thank posted that???? :^)
2nd... and think...slight corrections
ReplyDeleteKinda looks like the sage was correct, don't it?
ReplyDeleteAlways good to work off positive sentiment first thing in the morning.
ReplyDeleteTrying to figure out how to cancel my filled trades on TZOO this morning...anyone know how to do this?
ReplyDeleteExited TZOO trade 39.30's. Had too much leverage in that one. I see some resistance at 40 on my AMTD chart. I'll be on the road for awhile. Heading to Glacier National Park on Wednesday and then to Asia for 3 months. Cash feels good at the moment although there should be a ton of trading opps.
ReplyDeleteTOF - LOL, let me know if you figure out a way to cancel those trades! I need to resubmit some bids myself. ;)
ReplyDeleteTOF, I have someone checking on your graphene idea in the tech business. Let's see if he comes back with something.
ReplyDeleteBuckyballs, about five years ago Phyllis starting talking about this and I said what are you talking about?
ALU has tons of patents.
t3d - Thanks man...some of you guys on this board are way more tech savvy than I am (ehem...David) so I'd love to get your take on graphene. With the big boys like IBM/Samsung/PKX/NOK/MSFT etc getting into it in a big way I think we really need to pay a lot of attention to it.
ReplyDeleteThinking about that TED spread chart, it seems to me that its a coincident indicator and we need to keep that in mind.
ReplyDeleteISM chart indicates that while averages over time are nice, the last three events were in the -9% range and may be more reflect of the times than the historical.
Also, these charts were in a report from a major banking brokerage firm which has a vested interest in keep one invested as to sheer the most sheep.
Ramblim man indeed.
Hey sweety how ya doing this mornin?
TOF, what is MSFT doing with grahene? when you have time TIA
ReplyDeleteST extended, but solid weekly, MSFT MOS
T3d >
ReplyDeletehttp://www.stockrants.com/2011/08/22/ibm-to-use-graphene-in-pcs-emc-hpq-ibm-msft-nok-orcl.html
Graphene in Nano-Antennas...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ece.gatech.edu/research/labs/bwn/papers/2011/c7.pdf
http://www.ece.gatech.edu/research/labs/bwn/papers/2010/c13.pdf
Also, check out the IEEE Proceedings Dec 2010 Special Issue in Nano-electronics. Acouple of papers there
TBT, TNX, DXY acting strange today vs. equities.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GDAXI+Interactive#symbol=^gdaxi;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
ReplyDeleteWhat is UP with the German markets? I mean I know what's up with them, but what's up!? They can't get off the floor.
if you think the german markets are going to rise again then DB is probably the best way to play it no?
ReplyDeleteor if you don't then you would short SPY right?
http://www.objectivetrader.com/.a/6a014e5f6975b2970c015434f3be08970c-pi
ReplyDeleteThe summation index just triggered a buy signal yesterday. This index is usually a good intermediate term indicator.
Enjoy your time in the Glacier NP, Jesse! I read somewhere that most of the glaciers have melted away there already... Are you planning to ascend some formidable mountain or just drive around the park?
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to all you guys who were able to take some decent profits on this rally, in TZOO, MITK, etc.!
ReplyDeleteMy vehicle of choice is not working out too well -- TLT is up considerably today... If it rises to 110, then I'll have to bail on my September puts before they become totally worthless...
David - I was looking at TLT earlier and am curious as to why it never really pulled back when the market rallied from it's lows. Perhaps its a tell that we should be slowly going out the back door?
ReplyDeleteGranted, I'm now 100% in cash and just sitting researching stuff so I could really care less...
NOK starting to look interesting...they have a ton of cash on hand relative to mkt cap. If the NOK Morph phone ever comes to be that could be a really nice turnaround story. I wouldn't count them out just yet.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Funny that you mention DB. I've been looking at BCS and DB this morning. Looks like they could rally for a bit.
ReplyDeleteBefore we get all bullish and fuzzy inside about banks and the market, we just need to take a quick glance at their monthly charts to show us future direction.
http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=2343
I see mega potential resistance for the Nasdaq between 2590 and 2600 from Nov '10, and the neckline from March and June. That's just a few points above. I see lots of bullish setups, but I'm gonna TRY to take it slow for now.
ReplyDeleteI like TOF's playbook here. After a big up or down day, it really, really, really pays to take at least 1 day off to gain new perspective. Otherwise your ego takes over and you start chasing.
Graphine - A monoatomic carbon structure? Poses an interesting a challenge... Similar to an epitaxial silicon process but with carbon instead... Slightly more difficult, might be an understatement.
ReplyDeleteSo I found a little bit of info...
Once you've got something resembling a carbon substrate, you'd need to mask and etch it in order to obtain specific geometry and electrical characteristics:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn20196-graphene-etching-to-usher-in-computing-revolution.html
You'd need to deposit the film (this is early work, no doubt):
http://www.patentgenius.com/patent/7700424.html
IBM has demonstrated an operational FET stack:
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/29343.wss
Need to know who has developed a process to produce such a material on an industrially economic scale...
I seem to recall one of Cramer's reply's to a caller re. over-seas banks... 'Why would I go over there to lose money when I can just as easily lose money on banks in the good ole' USA???'
ReplyDeletecp - I'm in the IEEE and get the Proceedings (have it on the shelf) but the pdf isn't freely available it seems. The article is highlighted here...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mendeley.com/research/graphene-cmos-beyondcmos-applications/
Jesse - Yeah man...the market has had a good run...can it go higher? Abso freaking lutely. However, we need to clear our heads every so often and think clearer. The last thing I need to do right now after making nice gains is to chase stuff higher that I have no conviction in and then the market takes a dump. It's good for the trading book and the mind to take breaks.
ReplyDeleteRight now I'm gonna spend time researching this graphene stuff more. CVV has a pretty impressive list of customers:
http://www.cvdequipment.com/company/customers/
It looks like Nanotechnology is starting to grab hold, about a decade after it was hyped like crazy. I remember watching NVEC run from $6 to $60 like 7 years ago...great company that is still probably a great investment, but it go way ahead of itself. I wouldn't be surprised to see CVV make a run to $40 or $50 to be quite honest.
I also love the drop in MMYT...would love to see it much lower..that's one I would buy and hold.
Graphene- You know I love a good gizmo!!! If you guys can figure it out count me in!
ReplyDeleteHEK- I fing knew it.
ReplyDeleteMark - It probably won't amount to much (as an investment) for the general public. Small specialized shops like
ReplyDeletehttp://www.buffalo.edu/businessengagement/SuccessStories/Graphene.php
will be bought out by large companies w/ negligible impact on the bottom line. Like the Borg...
Warning guys.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow is the last trading day of the month. We have a HUGE monthly bar. Monthly bars of this magnitude usually close near the lows of the month. If they do not, they tend to test the lows the following month. I'm also noticing VIX reaching support as well as seeing possible setups in the inverses.
I'm not saying we are definitely going to crash tomorrow, but it is the last day of the most volatile month in memory. It is a far more pivotal day than any other. I do not want to risk it.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=M&yr=18&mn=0&dy=5&i=p11682348704&a=213366018&r=487
ReplyDeleteHere is a possible reason for TLT to be up today:
ReplyDelete"Some Federal Reserve officials favored making a bolder move Aug. 9 to try and boost a stubbornly weak U.S. economy, minutes of their last policy-setting meeting showed. The most potent tool, a third round of asset purchases that markets have dubbed QE3, was raised as a possibility by some officials, according to Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes, released with the customary three-week lag Tuesday.
Some officials suggested that extending the average duration of the Fed's existing portfolio by selling bonds with short maturities and buying those with longer maturities could have a similar effect as buying new securities outright."
All right, I probably should have done it the first time, so I just sold 5K shares of MITK in one of my original positions I bought at 5.78 for 9.75.
ReplyDeleteHeading into the last day, the Nasdaq has moved 200 points in 3 trading sessions coinciding w/ several overbought indicators. This is all within the confines of a new bear market (defined as the 50 dma/200dma crossover).
ReplyDeleteJesse - Appreciate your warning. I've eliminated most of my swing trade positions (except SVM, DNN, & JBLU). Hopefully I will have the discipline to only day-trade (ala Vad) after this...
ReplyDeleteDavid- I haven't made any plans yet for my trip. I rarely do. I generally just jump in my car and go. I just need to be a little worried about bears given their friskiness this year.
ReplyDeleteJesse - The huge red back in Jan 08 ended above halfway up from it's bottom...this looks similar
ReplyDeleteTwo weeks ago Jesse and I debated which high flier stocks would run the most when the market runs...I remember thinking: why not just buy BGU? If the market was to rise to 1,260 then BGU would go up 35% or so. Of all of the companies I have purchased since the bottom last week, none have beaten BGU, which is up 27% from when I bought DECK / TZOO / BTU...
ReplyDeleteThx Kyle.
ReplyDeleteMark.
ReplyDeleteWow.
Graphine - Apparently someone has developed a chemical vapor deposition process to deposit graphite, which they call graphine (I assume that means a non-amorphous carbon FLG(few layers graphine or SLG(single layer graphine) and from there, were able to build some working gate stacks:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110617110710.htm
Still, I wonder how robust their carbon deposition process is, chemical vapor deposition of carbon might present a huge challenge outside of a laboratory. Not sure who developed or owns this CVD process, possibly AMAT or more likely the sematech consortium.
Lots of hoopla about the possibilities but not much about how or where these thin films are coming from...
T3d -- Thanks much for reminding me that I need to have the discipline to obey my trading style and not become distracted by other peoples' approaches.
ReplyDeleteI decided to take profits on my S&P calls now and just sold them at $13.60 (purchased them at $8.90). I hope I sold too early and S&P will keep moving up, since in that case TLT will be pressured to move down, and at this point I am just hoping to get out of my TLT puts alive...
ReplyDeleteAAPL gap on the weekly. That will close.
ReplyDeleteMark - Helluva trade man! Great guts on that.
ReplyDeleteI'm in cash and forcing myself to take a break. If I was forced to trade I would be scaling into shorts. I think we eventually have to re-test those lows from earlier this month.
Well, at least I sold my SPY calls at the peak of the day today... Interesting -- right before the close, SPY plunged down AND TLT moved down as well. Crazy market...
ReplyDeleteMark -- congrats on your MITK trade! I sold out my position at $7.25 when S&P was testing 1120 and put that money into S&P calls and TLT puts. The former have already worked out well, but the latter are still not working...
ReplyDeletefrom Steve Grasso...
ReplyDeletethis is pension rabalance if it wer short covering vol would be greater
sure does look like 1240 first then a retest , bofa put out a nice note saying basicly the same
http://twitter.com/#!/GrassoSteve
I suspect we get "news" tomorrow. SPY down .4% thus far w/in minutes after the close.
ReplyDeleteleft out one...
ReplyDeletewe can squeeze higher but i am still thking we test 1101 so i would be quick to lock in prof if buying here , market intraday straight up
Thanks guys, but I still have 17K original shares to 'get rid of'...or I have to reload for the third time. It's been a wild ride and one I'm ready to exit honestly. Cash is feeling much more comfortable right now. I guess I expect another test of the lows before we rally into year end.
ReplyDeleteAnother thing on my mind is a lack of work soon. Those $20K daily swings come with a certain degree of pressure.
Kyle - "But since graphene is a gapless semiconductor, these transistors have high off-state leakage and nonsaturating drive currents."
ReplyDeleteObviously leakage makes for undesirable noise factors. I don't know what he's trying to say in the second half, a saturated transistor is slow to turn off. He also doesn't note much about the structure or if it's been optimized.
Everyone wants a smaller device(low capacitance) to increase speed, and if that can't be achieved with a graphine film then there's not much point going that route. Okay, maybe for analog applications, but expensive saphire substrates are already being used there. Digital could go that route sub ~14nm, I think is what they've been contemplating anyway, right?
So even if graphite FLG/SLG by CVD/PECVD/MEB/etc. deposition is feasible, graphite might not be the wonder material presumed... Look towards saphire substrates for the next shrink (again, prohibitively expensive).
Mark > Why are you going to be lacking work soon?
ReplyDeleteAlso, and I know this sounds crazy, but my soccer schedule is really going to get crazy for the next 2 months.
ReplyDeleteYesterday we found out Hailey, our 6 year old, has been asked to take a roster spot on the U-9 team. She's been practicing with them all year, but this will be her first games. There is a tourny this weekend. She's on cloud nine! Know what I'm proud of? Not that she is good enough to play, but at 6 she has been able to focus during practice and pay attention! A lot of the 7,8 and 9 year olds on the team cant!!
Mark - Can we buy long term options on Hailey making team USA by 2025?
ReplyDeleteTOF :) !
ReplyDeleteI just hope all of this keeps my kids out of a certain degree of trouble. Like maybe 1/2 of what I got into.
TOF- I'm finishing a big job right now and have nothing in the hopper. Am I worried about it, not really. But it usually takes about 6 months from bidding to actually starting a job, so I'm already looking to next spring. Since I do ultra high end stuff, $2+M, and don't advertise etc. it's really hard to make a overall call on the industry due to what I see. Things are soft though...and not just for me.
ReplyDeleteI will be taking you up though on the few week stay at your pad. Don't worry, I'll call the day before we all show up.
As opposed to trying to guess at whether graphine will become a semiconductor technology, I think I'd start looking at gallium arsinide(GaAs) substrate manufacturers. GaAs should remain in strong demand for all those smart phones and RF devices, and faster microprocessors might have to use GaAs
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4212649/Gallium-arsenide-on-a-roll--says-analyst
Not sure whatever other uses might be found for graphine, or if there's even a mechanism for manufacturing it.
"Things are soft though...and not just for me"
ReplyDeleteYou certainly don't speak for em, I don't have that problem...
Careful CP...Or I'll Fedx Haraln out there too kick your ass.
ReplyDeleteHaha...it's gonna be tight when you come Mark. The place is barely big enough for us and the newborn.
ReplyDeleteI tell ya today sure felt a lot like 8/17, when we topped out before and opened up to a big gap down.
Screw it - I'm taking off the rest of the week and gonna have a stress free Labor Day...i'll be lurking here fellas. Cheers to you guys making some coin!
ReplyDeletecp - So I guess I'm going to actually have to read this crap rather than just stack up the journals in order to answer ur questions hey???
ReplyDeleteDid you know this....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/There's_Plenty_of_Room_at_the_Bottom
According to Hulbert's contrarian analysis, we still have a long way to go higher...given how skeptical people are of this rally, I gotta say he makes a lot of sense:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarians-are-bullish-2011-08-30
If people were stubbornly bullish at the beginning of the year despite the market giving way to lower prices, then being stubbornly bearish right now would most likely yield higher prices...
So if people are expecting 1,250 as a place to short...either right here is where they should short...or more likely the market goes to 1,300 and recaptures the 200 DMA...that would piss off a lot of people
ReplyDeleteI have to assume that today's high was THE top going forward in a weekly bear flag pattern. We'll see how the pattern develops. Q's have already given up all of today's gains after hours.
ReplyDeleteMore on Gallium Arsinide (III-V) (Substrates, not deposited):
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallium_arsenide
Or, it appears they're also considering Germanium, not sure how they plan on implementing any of this, via substrate or perhaps epitaxial deposition...
"
Technology trends to watch 7, July 2011
Pete Singer
Editor-in-Chief
Beyond fully depleted devices with high-k metal gates, Steegen said the industry will have to change how it employs stressors (i.e., tensile compressive nitride liners at the epi source/drain) to improve device performance. "When you start scaling the dimensions to 14nm and below, they become less and less effective," she said. "One way of improving the device performance is by engineering the channel mobility." The way to do that is by introducing new materials, such as germanium and III-Vs, in the channel. Steegen said imec has already been working for a long time on germanium devices, so that work is well established at this point. "A lot of focus these days is on the III-V devices. We're very proud at imec that we could demonstrate the first transistor built on a III-V material, grown on a 300mm silicon substrate," she said. However, there's still a lot of work to do on these III-V transistors. "Clearly, the substrate defects are a big issue. The other one is the passivation of the III-V materials," Steegen said.
Looking even further out, Steegen said there were many flavors of exploratory devices that could replace the MOSFET. "One of them that's really getting a lot of attention right now and is being studied quite a bit is the tunnel FET," she said. TunnelFETs use band-to-band tunneling in a gate-controlled heterojunction type of device to be able to reduce the subthreshold voltage to below 60mV/decade. "That's a pretty unique device and the way you do that is just by filtering your energy through that gate voltage and allow tunneling in the on-state of the device," Steegen said. "The key issue of this device is the on current. We can't get enough drive into these devices. We need to improve the tunnel efficiency of the source of the device by implementing new materials. It's pretty much a given at this point that a silicon-based heterojunction device is not going to work so we have to again adopt new materials, like germanium and III-V, to build this device and improve the tunneling efficiency. It's going to have to be seen if the on-current of this device can meet industry requirements," Steegen said."
http://www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/print/volume-54/issue-7/columns/editorial/technology-trends-to-watch.html
guys - I think GTI is another great play on this graphite/graphene...as well as my old favorite: CHGI.
ReplyDeleteKyle - Well yes, until you get to the mechanical limit of the size of atom you're attempting to manipulate.
ReplyDeleteI think some of these lines are already just several atoms wide, carbon atoms are fairly small, I suppose, I haven't heard too much about integrating graphene films, leave that one to the propellerheads. More about self-assembly or "tiny robot" assembly and cheaper manufacturing techniques in general. I still have yet to see a "lights out" fab with my own eyes.
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4041783/-Lights-out-fab-could-arrive-in-three-years-
Speed costs money, how fast do you really need to go?
cp - I was really talking about the fact that Feynman gave the talk in 1959...
ReplyDeleteKyle / CP > I'm sitting on the sidelines reading as I'm too dull to add anything toe the conversation.
ReplyDeleteJesse - I think I agree with you...in fact, ultimately whether or not we rally in the short term, I think we have significant more downside risk. I wouldn't be surprised to see 1,010 again.
GTI - TOF - Agreed, graphite components are something the world will always need, that's for sure. Arc furnaces for melting recycled metals, brushes for electric motors, bushings, compressor seals, on and on...
ReplyDeleteLooks like GTI is severely oversold, too.
Kyle - "December 29, 1959. Feynman considered the possibility of direct manipulation of individual atoms as a more powerful form of synthetic chemistry than those used at the time."
ReplyDeleteFenman had some pretty good insight, one often overlooked vector for blood poisoning comes from absorption through the skin of toxic materials. The advent of nanoparticles that are so small as to be able to measily move through the epidermal layer into the blood stream opens up an entire world of possibilities from medical to outright hazardous.
Some of the new sunscreens, for instance, are said to make use of nanoparticles, yet aren't labeled as such, which means people who apply these products to the skin may suffer from blood poisoning. Otherwise "harmless" aluminum through the skin into the blood could present unknown consequences.
new post
ReplyDelete