I'm a spy in the House of Pain
I know the dreams you chase in vain
I know the word that you long to hear
I know your deepest secret fear
Man, what's with the negative vibes? There's only one way to ride this bull train to its final destination- stay the course.
My take is we rally hard into the weekend. Why? It's the path of least resistance. Funds are going accumulate stocks ahead of the vacationing crowds.
ReplyDeleteDo you see any headlines announcing a continuation of the rally? Neither do I. That's bullish.
ReplyDeleteThen we gap up the Tuesday following Labor Day. At that point, ST traders might want to take a few profits.
ReplyDeleteWith a gun pointed to my head, I would say starting tomorrow (the last day of the most volatile month in memory), the nasdaq heads to 2400, bounces to 2500 and makes new lows over the next 4-6 weeks.
ReplyDeletejesse- You need to stop smoking that crap! The NDQ heads to 2700, bounces to 2600 and makes new highs over the next 4-6 weeks.
ReplyDeleteTry some blonde Moroccan hashish. It will set your mind on a higher path.
ReplyDeleteI get mine from illini.
ReplyDeleteI haven't smoked any crap at least since Saturday:) I think this is a bear spike for several reasons. One of which is the fact that bull moves during bear markets are relentlessly fast and furious like the 200 point move in the nasdaq in 3 sessions. We probably saw dozens of these in 2008. In a healthy market, I like to see several nice violent pullbacks along the way to shake out the weak hands.
ReplyDeleteNaz has moved 200 points in 3 sessions and 250 in 6. A bit too quick in my book.
Three hash-free days? That explains the pessimism.
ReplyDeleteThe indexes are going much higher, bro. Don't get left behind.
ReplyDeleteThis board is going off on tangents, mathematically meaning spinning off into outer space. Recent cases in point: TZOO, graphene, MITK. Oh, I forgot, MITK was a big winner for me.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's the smoking or the Nadurra. I don't do either one but am getting closer to the latter.
Illini is a drug dealer...OK, I can die now. I've seen everything.
ReplyDeleteI always figured it was RB. Man, I always look to the obvious.
ReplyDeleteTwits quote of the day...
ReplyDelete$HEK http://stks.co/2IU Expanding volume, price broke above kijun today, tenken following, entering kumo, MACD crossed
This guy must know Illini.
I can see it now: 2nd will be fully transformed into a momentum player, riding CVV to $1,900 ($10 Billion mkt cap) and higher as graphene replaces silicon and battery powered cars, thus solving our computing and energy needs for the next century.
ReplyDeleteI will say the first word out of his mouth after I said graphene was Gallium arsenide.
ReplyDeleteIllini, don't do it you'll never go back, think Ill have some of the sacrament now.
I'll be shocked if we do not go back to 1100 and then 1010. The timing is the question.
ReplyDeleteT3 > The timing is ALWAYS the question. It's the difference between making book worthy returns and pocket change worth returns.
ReplyDeleteIf this market does not turn over, I want to be in banks.
ReplyDeleteEuropean banks.
DB and BCS.
Jesse - I totally agree...in fact, I think the buy on DB is RIGHT HERE...with a stop below recent lows (if you can handle the risk). It's a very low risk trade in my mind with $45 and then $47 as upside targets.
ReplyDeleteGuys, read the latest Mauldin's letter before venturing into the European banks:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2011/08/27/the-end-of-the-world-part-1.aspx
Here are some excerpts from it:
“German President Christian Wulff has accused the European Central Bank of violating its treaty mandate with the mass purchase of southern European bonds. In a cannon shot across Europe’s bows, he warned that Germany is reaching bailout exhaustion and cannot allow its own democracy to be undermined by EU mayhem.
The combined attacks come just two weeks before the German constitutional court rules on the legality of the various bailout policies. The verdict is expected on September 7.”
So we can have some fireworks in Europe in mid-September...
I may have been 8 months early.
ReplyDeleteDare I say natural gas?
LOTS of positive divergence heading into historical low period of late August-Early October.
David - I think Jesse and I are merely talking about trades here. Judging by the futures it sure looks like we could be trading up to 1,260 or even up to prior support around 1,295. If that were to happen I would be on high alert for a trend reversal day that would open up a good short entry. At this point it looks like shorts will be looking to get really short at 1,250...so the best fakeout the market could do at that point would be to have it run to 1,295, above the 200 DMA and high enough to convince people that it's all clear. At which point a selloff below 1,120 would make a lot of sense. Remember, we need to get a lot of the bearishness out of the market. It was excessive.
ReplyDeleteIreland may be a a good place to look for bank invesments - they seem to be restructuring which could lead to good upside.
ReplyDeleteBank of Ireland raised over $1 billion last month from a group led by distressed investor / insurance company, Fairfax Financial, and Irish Life Insurance is in the process of taking bids.
Another interesting place is still Greece - 2 banks announced a merger last week and a big Kuwaiti investment, they are all taking writedowns on their debts to get their balance sheets in order and they actually do have lots of capital assuming their Greek government bond holdings get paid.
I'm still long NBG from $2.75, now under $1.00.
Stuff we love...
ReplyDeleteCTCT started at buy.
ZIPer/F deal... http://www.freep.com/article/20110831/BUSINESS0102/110831003/Ford-partners-Zipcar-reach-car-sharing-students
I'm certainly qualified to work for HPQ:
ReplyDelete9:23 AM Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) says it will temporarily resume manufacturing of its TouchPad tablet just 11 days after killing it. The resurrection follows a spike in demand after H-P, desperate to clear out unsold inventory, slashed the price from $399 to $99. But the decision to manufacture a second run is puzzling, since the basic TouchPad costs ~$306 to manufacture.
whenever I think I'm too old and stupid to work in hi-tech again all I need to do is read HPQ's press releases.
ReplyDeleteMITK to ring the opening bell Sept. 7. Too funny.
ReplyDeleteJB, dude, where you been homey?
ReplyDeleteyo, yo bro - usually pretty busy trading the CL and 6E in the early a.m.....not trading today since we have too many econ reports, plus today is end of month window dressing BS.
ReplyDeletewhat's new with you?
JB and I plan a run to Barstow to stock up.
ReplyDeleteSPY/QQQ's bumping up against resistance here.
ReplyDeleteWe'll meet up with RB in Laughlin to split the take.
ReplyDeleteApplied for a position with MITK. Haven't hear anything yet.
ReplyDeleteMark- A quick head butt is all it will take- sellers who would normally be getting out here got taken out much lower during the Panic of '11.
ReplyDelete2nd - now that's a plan!
ReplyDeleteAnd through!
ReplyDeleteMITK...Well, here we are. 10 bucks again. 24K shares on the ask.
ReplyDeleteMITK new high. This baby could go momo.
ReplyDeleteUt ho....It's stalling out!!!
ReplyDelete30K on the ask @ 10.26.
ReplyDeleteGood morning!
ReplyDeleteWEB-TV - I suppose BC will do a fine job of exposing the CNBC crowd for what they are once he gets his Web-TV project up and running.
It could have the potential to earn quite a following.
SVM - If my position does well enough to qualify, I'm thinking of trying to get the proceeds into BC's hands to manage. Seems fair.
There's the head butt.
ReplyDeleteMITK. Seeing if I can get rid of a little more. 3K @ 10.55/ 5K @ 10.60.
ReplyDeleteWow. There goes the ones at 10.55.
ReplyDeletegood job Mark! I'm still holding my MITK
ReplyDeleteJB- I'll finally hold about 5K shares I think...Maybe a little more.
ReplyDeleteGTI - I believe I see a gap up from yesterday that needs to fill.
ReplyDelete10.60. Half gone.
ReplyDeleteCan't he just STFU.
ReplyDeleteOK, so there goes the rest. Total off 8K. Now down to 9K shares.
ReplyDeleteMITK now showing up on the top 10 for the day. crazy.
ReplyDeleteL8ter guys. I'm REALLY looking forward to this weekend :))))
Natty- There she blows.
ReplyDeleteI actually forgot I had 2,400 shares in Patricia's IRA. Those are now off also @ 10.72.
ReplyDeleteFreakin A Mark! Well played.
ReplyDeleteI see CVV is down some on the chairman selling 3% of his stake. I don't blame him...here's to the stock going to $13. I'll be getting in there.
I'm eyeing NLS believe it or not...its worked well twice now, why not a third time?
Big boys QID, SDS, TWM all hit lower bolinger band today. Hmmm.....
ReplyDeleteJesse - Yep, watching TZA and FAZ closely
ReplyDeleteUpdate on TZOO:
ReplyDeleteOver the past 26 hours: $243k in gross sales (includes estimate for direct purchases that can't be tracked but no estimate for deals pulled, which probably more than compensates for returns allowances).
This translates into a run rate of $31 Million for the quarter or with a 32% commission rate, $9.9 Million net sales. Assuming a 5% growth rate in core sales, total sales for the quarter at this run rate would be $39.3 Million, which is right around analyst estimates.
This run rate is slightly lower than the run rate from late last week. After mixing in weekend sales there is a chance they're running below estimates but it's such a small sample size.
Give me a red close with follow through tomorrow and I'll consider a short...otherwise I'm not taking the bait.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
ReplyDeleteCDS Sovereign spreads contracting a bit but still pretty damn high.
Italy Germany spread and Spain Germany spread pulled back a couple of weeks ago but still trending higher:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.SPN:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.ITAGER10:IND
I wonder if the equity markets are running up when the rest of the trading community is on vacation. Sovereign and corporate spreads don't quite mirror the action in the equity markets...they're easing a bit but not enough to warrant a move much higher I would think...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44335728
McCain: ‘I Was Noncommittal’ On Helping Qaddafi Get Military Equipment.
ReplyDeleteSilver - A break of $42 improves the probability of ~$46.
ReplyDeleteWhoa...puts on SPY are significantly higher than the calls on every expiration date. Either the big boys know something we don't or Hulbert is right....we need to rally higher and higher to work off the pessimism.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- VIX is still above 30, which speaks volumes about pessimism out there. Or maybe it is not pessimism but is just an expectation of a large directional move, UP or DOWN, after the mid-September vote in Germany about the bailouts and the late-September Fed meeting.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think a lot of people are looking toward Obama's speech around Labor Day as well....it's crazy how much pessimism is out there. The entire investing public didn't trust the entire move...so when it moves down it just reinforces their beliefs...it's a self reinforcing bullish cycle.
ReplyDeleteIf you believe in the rising channel technical trend, then SPY hit the upper end of the channel this morning spot on.
ReplyDeleteThe bearish argument is this is just a retracement making a rising wedge or channel that will resolve to the downside. This might actually be a decent spot to speculate on the short side as the downside risk is low.
high fliers have pulled back quite a bit from today's highs...not a great sign.
ReplyDeleteFrom my "momo watch list" today:
ReplyDeleteJVA -14%
CVV -10%
VHC -6%
OPEN -4%
TZOO -2%
IDCC -2.5%
MCP -1.5%
LULU -1%
NFLX -1%
SFLY +.35%
MITK - Mark, you are a GOD:)
Selling short Q's here 55.20's. Stop at today's high. The last 2 hours of the last day of the month and the first trading day of September should be very interesting considering the overbought nature of the monthly bar.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm not liking the feel either. It's not clear if the large short position is a bad omen b/c we have no visibility on who that is.
ReplyDeleteWonder why we don't have that visibility?
My gut feeling is that AAPL saw its top at 392 today. When I say top, I mean it will never trade there again in its corporate history. Just a hunch. I think it will have a failed weekly gap that will mark the top.
ReplyDeleteMITK - And Mark says he thinks some of us are smarter than he is, LOL!
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, back at the ranch...
SVM - I thought if might retest the 20SMA...
ReplyDeleteJust saw this:
ReplyDelete8/31/11 11:00:00 UPDATE: Lockhart Won't Rule Out Any Quantitative Easing Options
This from late July:
http://bighaber.com/haber/wrapup-3-feds-lockhart-says-bar-high-to-further-easing-1031289.html
Are these guys really leading the central bank? Is the tail wagging the dog?
1275 - Hmm, no run to the double bottom target?
ReplyDeleteSVM - Sucking wind here again...
SPY hit Traderstewie's "Black Box" limit @ 123.50 today. Been watching this for awhile....
ReplyDeletehttp://chart.ly/users/traderstewie
Man, I'd love to play UNG again. Those were fun days!
ReplyDeleteJesse- Thanks, but it was TOF's play. I just traded it as best as I could. I still really like it LT.
TOF - The truth IMO, is the dollar is too strong(wages too high) and too many jobs were lost as a result.
ReplyDeleteThey have to do something about that unless they're willing to accept the reality, maybe they already made that decision a couple decades ago and they're just following the plan allowing the dollar to rise similarly to what we've witnessed in the Yen?
Unsustainable debt leads to some form of default, and as tax base shrinks, that date is moved in. That's the trend I'm observing... All the whipsaw is just noise.
Japan has been heading in that direction as well, the difference is Japanese citizens hold Japanese government debt and so, Japanese gov. can't give their citizens a paper haircut without hurting them on both ends of the deal.
NOW I am confused (and pleasantly surprised): over the past 30 minutes, both SPY and TLT have collapsed. Bonds do seem to have a life of their own lately, as bond investors are speculating back and forth on a wide range of possible outcomes of both Obama's speech and the next Fed meeting...
ReplyDeleteCovered the Q's on that downdraft. Hitting the road for a 9 day cross country adventure in the am. Won't have internet 90% of the time. Back to cash.
ReplyDeleteThis pullback is nothing more than a pullback in my mind. The market was at 1,120 last week...it ran to 1,230. only natural to see profit takers.
ReplyDeletePeople say there is no such a thing as a quadruple bottom. So if TLT breaks $108 now, it would be a great intraday short until EOD.
ReplyDeleteJesse - Who are you working for? I'd like to get that schedule...
ReplyDeleteJesse - being in cash on a trip is a nice feeling. In fact, being in cash in general right now is a nice feeling. When asset prices fall the value of your cash rises.
ReplyDeleteWell, perhaps this is a reaction to this morning's presidential speech? Apparently the ideas didn't compute...
ReplyDeleteTLT is at $108 again -- let's see if there is such a thing as a quadruple bottom...
ReplyDeleteTLT - Wasn't there an T' auction scheduled for today? Sad, isn't it, tax receipts are so inadequate that government ceases to function without issuing additional debt paper...
ReplyDeleteApparently, people DO know what they are talking about -- TLT is having a MAJOR spike down. I hope somebody here shorted it for a day trade when it approached $108 for the 4th time. If you didn't, then watch out next time for a weak 3rd bounce off the support level in any security, and if that bounce fizzles away, then don't wait to short it until the support is broken -- short it when it even starts approaching the support for the 4th time, as THERE ISN'T such a thing as a quadruple bottom.
ReplyDeleteWill the $106.5 level be broken tomorrow by TLT? If so, then I'll be a happy camper, as I was afraid for a while that TLT has put in a higher low over the past few days and was on the way to a new high. The breakdown that has just occurred has significantly reduced the chance of that happening...
ReplyDeleteBruce Krasting is suggesting that Obama is likely to announce a new plan to re-fi residential mortgages on a massive scale:
ReplyDeletehttp://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/08/feds-plan-rumors-of-news.html
This would lead massive repayments to the Fed of MBS securities, which would allow the Fed to reinvest that money into Treasury bond purchases on a massive scale WITHOUT announcing a new QE3. Maybe that's what kept bonds up over the past few days. But now that this speculation is out, what else is left to keep bonds up this week?
I could see the market holding up until Obama's jobs initiative announcement. I think it will be Sep. 7th.
ReplyDeleteW/ the monthly charts, I think the odds of at least a re-test of the bottom is in the cards in September and/or October.
I will be watching natty.
I'm most likely just gonna stay until cash until after the holiday weekend. I am really enjoying the peace of mind. The only thing that would change it is if I get the following prices:
ReplyDeleteMMYT: $12
CVV: $12-$13
DECK: $73
CTCT: $14
IBKC: $42
OPEN: $46
They'll try to throw you off the train any way they can.
ReplyDeleteAs I've said in the past, I use GAZ as a proxy for natgas. I love the chart. Weekly breakout today.
ReplyDeleteScaling into UNG as we speak. Will probably set stop 9.99 or so to give it a little wiggle room.
Historical nat gas bottoms- Late August/Early September:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NATGAS&p=W&st=1999-09-30&en=(today)&i=p84176621919&a=202311991&r=448
Looks like TLT is set on making a triple bottom at around $107 level on the DAILY chart now. According to the "no-quadruple-bottom" theory, if TLT makes a small bounce tomorrow and then heads back down to $107, it would be great short down to its previous support at $104. Don't miss this opportunity, folks -- watch it closely...
ReplyDeleteI don't mind being away from my computer while holding natty since it is so liquid for stops and because it is almost market neutral. $4 natty heading into Fall/Winter.
ReplyDeleteToday is a buying opportunity, IMO. What better way to trip up investors going into Labor Day than a blow-out jobs report on Friday?
ReplyDeletelooks like someone bailed into the close on NLS....i think the odds of this being a 10 bagger from this price over the next 5 years are as good as any you will get in the market.
ReplyDeletejust turned on the television for some stupid reason and every single fast money guy is negative.
ReplyDeleteevery. one.
in fact, i heard one of them say that the econ reports are bad and getting worse. really? haven't jobless claims been ok and haven't the consumer spending reports been ok? wasn't Chicago PMI and durable goods better than expected?
i have no take and am not ready to move until i do but jeez this just feeds into hulbert's article about excessive pessimism.
2nd what is the final destination?
ReplyDeleteCongrats Mark!!!
ReplyDelete"Bank of Ireland raised over $1 billion last month from a group led by distressed investor / insurance company, Fairfax Financial, and Irish Life Insurance is in the process of taking bids."
ReplyDeleteBB - I see AIB has been delisted...whats to say that IRE doesn't have the same fate?
TLT - David, I hear you on the short opportunity. Too bad you got stopped out above 109 a few days ago. Meantime I have made a little coin by day trading when 109 is approached and buying back on the pullback. First time it was a straight short. Next day no TLT was available (Scottrade) so went with TBT. Don't do puts or calls. Just a simpleton. Still 50% cash after doing some day trading. Don't fully trust this market due to macro concerns. BTW, I hold GTY again but at a loss since bought at 22.37 on Aug 3. Bad timing but I think it will work out, as last time.
ReplyDeleteSmall world, I used to work under Dr. Chris Gronet while at AMAT!
ReplyDeleteFremont:
"The California solar panel manufacturer that received a high-profile $535-million Energy Department loan guarantee said it was ceasing operations, laying of 1,100 workers and preparing to file for bankruptcy protection.
Solyndra would become the third such company to file for bankruptcy in recent days. Spectrawatt Inc. of Hopewell Junction, N.Y., filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Aug. 19. Evergreen Solar Inc. of Marlboro, Mass., filed for Chapter 11 on Aug. 15."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-solar-shutdown-20110901,0,5045155.story