"It is now urgent for investors to recognize that the set of economic evidence we observe reflects a unique signature of recessions comprising deterioration in financial and economic measures that is always and only observed during or immediately prior to U.S. recessions. These include a widening of credit spreads on corporate debt versus 6 months prior, the S&P 500 below its level of 6 months prior, the Treasury yield curve flatter than 2.5% (10-year minus 3-month), year-over-year GDP growth below 2%, ISM Purchasing Managers Index below 54, year-over-year growth in total nonfarm payrolls below 1%, as well as important corroborating indicators such as plunging consumer confidence. There are certainly a great number of opinions about the prospect of recession, but the evidence we observe at present has 100% sensitivity (these conditions have always been observed during or just prior to each U.S. recession) and 100% specificity (the only time we observe the full set of these conditions is during or just prior to U.S. recessions)."
So the economic recovery that we had since the spring of 2009 is most likely over now. The economy is obviously slowing down now, and the only question is whether we quickly plunge to a strongly negative GDP or we stay around 0 for a few quarters. Unless, of course, Obama and the Fed announce some miraculous steps in the next few weeks.
2nd - The "economic recovery'" is stagnant. The banking system is screwed here and in Europe. Debt loads are tremendous. Nothing is being done about any of this. Governments are paralyzed. We are ruled by oligarchs who are leading all to ruin. The people are blind and apathetic. That's it in a nutshell. Except to add that the next shock will come from Europe and will affect everyone in this interconnected world financial system.
2nd_ave, I can understand why someone would be ignoring Hussman's take on the stock market, since his strategy assumes a 10-year time horizon (and thus he simply increases his exposure as price goes down and reduces it as price goes up).
However, Hussman's take on the economy is something very different -- here he is just using statistics of how similar circumstances have evolved in the past. If you don't think that we'll be in a recession soon, then you think this time will be different from all other times in the past. If so, then what makes you think this way? I am just curious...
I hope your feel about my TLT puts proves to be correct. :) What gives me hope is the observation that the bond market was fully front-running the Fed during QE1 and QE2: a huge run-up in expectations of QE1 in December 2009 and then a sell-off into Fed's hands in January 2010; a large run-up into the QE2 announcement and an immediate drop the very second QE2 was announced, continuing that sell-off for most of QE2. Thus, even if the Fed makes some announcement that will imply bond buying in September, the bond market will most likely sell-off on that announcement. Unfortunately, a large part of my TLT puts has a September expiration, and so I cannot afford to wait that long. I need the collapse in TLT to start by Tuesday at the latest. Otherwise, I am closing my September puts (possibly rolling them over into October puts).
Hussman states: '100% sensitivity (these conditions have always been observed DUING or just prior to each U.S. recession) and 100% specificity (the only time we observe the full set of these conditions is DURING or just prior to U.S. recessions).'
I would say we're in a recession- but also moving out of recession.
"I would say we're in a recession- but also moving out of recession."
That's a very interesting take, 2nd_ave! So you think that 3Q GDP might make a negative print (after all revisions are completed), but the 4Q GDP number will be positive once again? This is something I can believe into, since as Bernanke rightfully noted we had a major economic shock coming out of Japan in the spring AND very high commodity prices depressing economic activity. Both of those effects have dissipated by now...
Overall, a GDP that oscillates between -1 and +2 is fully consistent with Mauldin's "Muddle Through Economy" and Grantham's "Seven Lean Years." I can also easily believe that such a GDP oscillation does not warrant S&P below 1000, and maybe even 1120 would be the bottom of oscillations in this case. However, in this case 1400 will most likely be the top, until we get out of this muddle-through phase.
Illini -- let's hope that today's profit taking due to the fear of a bad payroll report tomorrow has exhausted all potential sellers and the market will rally (with TLT collapsing) tomorrow even if we get a bad payroll report...
2nd - You are right about the inconsistency via short TLT and short the economy. The short TLT will likely be a quickie for me and a hedge against a few longs.
I should heed Felix Zulauf in an 8/15 interview on CNNmoney: Avoid stocks and corporate bonds, buy gold and short term/intermediate term treasuries.
"U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages"
Now that ought to be interesting to watch the reaction. Wonder how much they stand to recover, bet it doesn't go far enough to cover much government debt.
BAC - Warren's deal could be pretty sweet, an option to buy a butt load @ $7.15 within the next 10 years.
I think tomorrow will be a day to move the market on a low volume day. The direction will be clearer next week. Tnotes are being held up by Pimco dudes saying Euro will have to lower interest rates making treasuries appealing to foreigners as a currency hedge with the possibility of a collapsing euro.Of coarse the PIMCO dudes are always wrong and yet any drivel out of their mouths is spread at infinitude throughout the web. They have been negative on t-notes since tlt was 90.
"But i am skeptical, that the govt that is owned by banks will prosecute banks. and the further they push banks, the further the need to bail out those banks." i agree
I'm probably screwing myself up but I'm now using MP, pivots and fib's, overlaying pivots and fib's on the same chart (my longer time frame chart) and using MP (with PA) on my short time frame charts (3min and 55 tick), only trading where there is confluence, less trades each day, but my hit rate is starting to move back up. not enough data yet but I'm going to stay with it for now
SVM - Speaking of this, the chart reminds me somewhat of that India chart from last year...what was it REDF or something...where there are these spikes then more roaches crawl out of the woodwork...
Kyle - Did GaN win a nobel prize and have IBM/NOK/MSFT/Samsung hyping it as the key to the future? Not being a smartass...just asking to gauge how it compares to Graphene.
tof - What I'm saying is that many of these exotic technologies are in R&D labs and in small companies that professors and some of their graduate students have. The utilization of these technologies MAY result in Pay-Off for these small companies (after they are bought out), but they DO NOT represent an investable opportunity for those outside those privately held companies.
MEMS, RFID, etc...I saw many of these when I was working govt. satellite systems. Very smart, specialized shops that will be 'assimilated' when the time comes...
Well, that serves me right -- engaging in pure chart-based speculation is not the way to make money. Although I *am* surprised that the TLT chart has resolved itself the way it did. In any case, I just closed all my September TLT puts for a $3K loss, which was exactly the gain I made on SPY puts a couple of weeks back. Still holding my October TLT puts.
On the plus side, both gold and silver rallied on the weak jobs report, pulling ECU up with them. With my 225K shares of ECU, the 2c gain in ECU.TO outweighs the loss I took today on TLT puts. :) So it is as if I was hedging my ECU.TO position with puts, which is a reasonable thing to do.
We could have gotten a good jobs report, which would have eliminated all the need for QE3, and both gold/silver could have collapsed. Now we are likely to get some initiative from Obama/Fed, which will permanently increase the stock of $USD and thus permanently increase the price of gold/silver.
Kyle - I look at the potential applications Graphene can be used in, how much money is being put to work in it, all of the big players are backing it and then I see CVV's backlog and revenue growth, their market cap and valuation, and it makes me want to buy them.
tof - I haven't looked at CVV at all and don't plan to. I regard these as similar to biotech speculations. You don't know how what CVV does compares to other privately held spin-offs from say Lincoln Labs or Sandia, etc. Good Luck.
SLW broke below Fib-R3 = 40.76, small short position, looking @ DeMark R1 = 40.52 as next support level.
tof - OK so looked at the yahoo profile on CVV...it's an equipment provider in competition with AMAT, etc. So what product does CVV have that these other larger companies can't???
I looked at the daily TLT chart again now, and it definitely doesn't look bearish anymore. In fact, it looks quite bullish, suggesting that TLT can easily go higher in the short term. So I decided to sell my October TLT puts as well, which I just did for a $1.5K loss, which completely offset the gain I made on the SPY calls I purchased when S&P made a double bottom at $1120. I may revisit TLT puts again after the Fed's meeting in September (especially if they announce some new bond buying program and the bond traders start actively selling their positions to the Fed, as they like to do, bringing down the whole bond market).
SVM-Stopped Out at $7.69 Submitted by papadynamite (215 comments) on Fri, 09/02/2011 - 13:29 #93956 A minimal loss but it cut right thru support at $7.70. Now down to $7.26. The next meaningful support is $6.00-$6.20. I'll step aside for now. Enough is enough!! Now 100% cash.
Kyle - I'm a trader man...why you asking me these questions!?!? seriously, though, they have significant revenue growth, 20% of mkt cap in cash, and a valuation that is cheap. of course a big company can do what they do, but they're doing it and doing it well right now. The more big players that jump on the Graphene bandwagon, the better it is for CVV, which as of right now is the only pure play graphene company out there, with massive revenue growth and a cheap valuation.
tof - CVV - they're an equipment provider, do they have any patents in graphene technology??? When u say they're the 'only pure play...' that usually equates to patents right???
Kyle - Yep they make equipment used for testing...profits and revenues are exploding. Client list is here: http://www.cvdequipment.com/company/customers/
As of right now it's the only "play" on graphene that I can find...
I agree that the volume isn't great but I've seen a pattern of higher highs and when it moves up it moves up on volume...Volume has been growing over time as well....
Ummm can someone please talk me off the ledge...I'm considering investing in RAS right now. They have paid a dividend of $0.15 already for the first half of this year...and there is pretty substantial insider buying...
Kyle - From that Sandia graphine article: "Scientists are excited by its potential".
Perhaps graphine is one of those rare materials necessary for the next generation space travel. It appears they may have stumbled on some unique materials with never before seen properties:
"The team uses unorthodox material science and investigative techniques to investigate a series of unexplained, often ghastly occurrences, which are related to mysteries surrounding a parallel universe."
I'm gonna hold off but RAS sure looks like a good divvy play at this point. They had over $200k in insider buying recently. I suspect that dividend is good and possibly going higher going forward. Right now it's a 6.8% div. Shit if the market can just stabilize you could get a double plus a 10%+ dividend. In fact that dividend could rise much higher over time if things improve...big if but who knows...
rental properties are doing extremely well in this economy so that's why I'm thinking RAS could be a smart play now...especially after a 70% drop in the stock price, heavy insider buying, and a 7% dividend that was previously only 2.5%...
Page down to applications in super-string theory, the belief is that at each point in normal 4-dimensional space (3 space + 1 time), there is a 6-dimensional space which permits all the diversification present in the elementary particles. So maybe w/ the introduction of graphine, we get WARP-Drive...OR maybe NOT... BUT WTFKnows
Jeez the concept of a 7% dividend with the possibility of it rising significantly over time is pretty enticing...would be nice to sit back and collect cash.
Kyle - True, my investment in transparent aluminum took an eternity to pay off, but these new materials are nothing short of exciting. It's possible, with more research, to totally eliminate the need for transportation fuels:
"Much of the development process involves a parallel universe that mostly mirrors the prime universe, but with numerous historical idiosyncrasies. The scientists were strongly interested in "world building", and the parallel universe allowed them to demonstrate a very similar world with a large amount of detail to fill in the texture of the world. A parallel universe would also allow them to show "how small choices that you make define you as a person and can change your life in large ways down the line", according to scientist Jeff Pinkner."
tof - REDF...wasn't that the Indian stock from last year or have I drank too much alcohol from cp's alternate universe???? ... it was REDF wasn't it????
Kyle - Yep REDF...i'm still watching it but the rev growth hasn't quite materialized yet....the big broadband rollout in india should have an impact on them but its not having one yet....total broadband users in india is still extremely low relative to pop'n...which is why i'm so bullish on MMYT longer term....
REDF - But some of those sharp selloffs were due to some undisclosed acquisition by the CEO that came to light...weren't they or am I not recalling correctly???
Kyle - well that's what got me scared out of the stock...the CEO started up a company called Vubites which has something to do with local TV advertising if I recall correctly..anyway, the company unanimously agreed to purchase the company from him despite it having no direct link to their core business and not being profitable. Having seen the mess at Satyam close up (I was short the stock before the scandal because they did some shady ass deal with their own CEO where they bought some unrelated biz) I was worried the same thing would happen at REDF...clearly that's not the case. I think they're just trying to put money in a bunch of areas and hope they stick...
one of the things that encourages me about the recent trading the market is that there are still some risky high fliers were able to make new highs:
MITK, MAKO, CVV to name a few
also, the last few days when i was flipping through charts i didn't realize how well some stocks outperformed the market back in the 2000-2003 bear market. that gave me a bit of confidence to enter some longs today.
in particular, back then the blue chip defensive companies performed pretty well, as did REITs, and even some consumer companies. it makes it harder to pick the winners for sure, but i like the challenge.
ultimately, i think we have some more downside risk though so it's important to make sure that if you're long then your company can perform well in a tough environment. even if we don't it will probably take a little while to get out of this negative sentiment. no one knows for sure though so i suppose it doesn't hurt to start getting some exposure to equities at some point here.
for my personal furniture business, things continue to be pretty steady....neither great nor terrible...just steady. that's the same thing i hear from my friend in the semi industry.
granted, i've decided to celebrate a successful week of trading and ended the day early...i'm finishing up the first beer, fat tire, i have had in a while (ok, it's only been a week). so the buzz is kicking in a little bit and my thoughts are rambling.
Yeah, I'm not completely convinced the market is cooked, as much as I think the US employment and hence housing situation, are.
Minority unemployment rates are running double that of the majority, indicative of a lack of demand for unskilled labor, I suppose.
Sure would've been nice if instead of moving next week's employment proposal to Thursday, it could've been moved to tonight, or maybe even last year. I'm pretty sure someone in some parallel universe somewhere has some ideas on how employment might be improved...
I don't get the anxiety right now. What part of 'the economy is recovering' do investors not understand?
ReplyDeletedid you guys dig up anything else on graphene?
ReplyDeleteThe greatest nation on the planet. That would not be China.
ReplyDeleteWho would you rather have for an uncle- Roubini, or Birinyi?
ReplyDeleteTZOO- So as of 8/15/11, 80% of the float was short. What are the odds most of them have covered? Right.
ReplyDeleteWhich of the headlines on Bloomberg would lead one to invest more wisely than the four common sensical lines I posted above?
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, here is what Hussman wrote last Sunday:
ReplyDelete"It is now urgent for investors to recognize that the set of economic evidence we observe reflects a unique signature of recessions comprising deterioration in financial and economic measures that is always and only observed during or immediately prior to U.S. recessions. These include a widening of credit spreads on corporate debt versus 6 months prior, the S&P 500 below its level of 6 months prior, the Treasury yield curve flatter than 2.5% (10-year minus 3-month), year-over-year GDP growth below 2%, ISM Purchasing Managers Index below 54, year-over-year growth in total nonfarm payrolls below 1%, as well as important corroborating indicators such as plunging consumer confidence. There are certainly a great number of opinions about the prospect of recession, but the evidence we observe at present has 100% sensitivity (these conditions have always been observed during or just prior to each U.S. recession) and 100% specificity (the only time we observe the full set of these conditions is during or just prior to U.S. recessions)."
So the economic recovery that we had since the spring of 2009 is most likely over now. The economy is obviously slowing down now, and the only question is whether we quickly plunge to a strongly negative GDP or we stay around 0 for a few quarters. Unless, of course, Obama and the Fed announce some miraculous steps in the next few weeks.
David- I know it's a sacrilege to say it, but I'm happy ignoring any and all comments by Hussman.
ReplyDeleteYour end-of-day puts may pay off handsomely sooner than you think. JMHO.
ReplyDelete2nd - The "economic recovery'" is stagnant. The banking system is screwed here and in Europe. Debt loads are tremendous. Nothing is being done about any of this. Governments are paralyzed. We are ruled by oligarchs who are leading all to ruin. The people are blind and apathetic. That's it in a nutshell. Except to add that the next shock will come from Europe and will affect everyone in this interconnected world financial system.
ReplyDeleteillini- Really?
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, I can understand why someone would be ignoring Hussman's take on the stock market, since his strategy assumes a 10-year time horizon (and thus he simply increases his exposure as price goes down and reduces it as price goes up).
ReplyDeleteHowever, Hussman's take on the economy is something very different -- here he is just using statistics of how similar circumstances have evolved in the past. If you don't think that we'll be in a recession soon, then you think this time will be different from all other times in the past. If so, then what makes you think this way? I am just curious...
I hope your feel about my TLT puts proves to be correct. :) What gives me hope is the observation that the bond market was fully front-running the Fed during QE1 and QE2: a huge run-up in expectations of QE1 in December 2009 and then a sell-off into Fed's hands in January 2010; a large run-up into the QE2 announcement and an immediate drop the very second QE2 was announced, continuing that sell-off for most of QE2. Thus, even if the Fed makes some announcement that will imply bond buying in September, the bond market will most likely sell-off on that announcement. Unfortunately, a large part of my TLT puts has a September expiration, and so I cannot afford to wait that long. I need the collapse in TLT to start by Tuesday at the latest. Otherwise, I am closing my September puts (possibly rolling them over into October puts).
Illini -- did you reload your TLT short by EOD today?
ReplyDelete2nd - What part of real-ity do you disagree with?
ReplyDeleteHussman states: '100% sensitivity (these conditions have always been observed DUING or just prior to each U.S. recession) and 100% specificity (the only time we observe the full set of these conditions is DURING or just prior to U.S. recessions).'
ReplyDeleteI would say we're in a recession- but also moving out of recession.
illini- Reality? It's the nature of man to recognize change only after change is well underway.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Yea, I reloaded via TBT about 45 minutes before close and am now holding at a small loss.
ReplyDelete"I would say we're in a recession- but also moving out of recession."
ReplyDeleteThat's a very interesting take, 2nd_ave! So you think that 3Q GDP might make a negative print (after all revisions are completed), but the 4Q GDP number will be positive once again? This is something I can believe into, since as Bernanke rightfully noted we had a major economic shock coming out of Japan in the spring AND very high commodity prices depressing economic activity. Both of those effects have dissipated by now...
Overall, a GDP that oscillates between -1 and +2 is fully consistent with Mauldin's "Muddle Through Economy" and Grantham's "Seven Lean Years." I can also easily believe that such a GDP oscillation does not warrant S&P below 1000, and maybe even 1120 would be the bottom of oscillations in this case. However, in this case 1400 will most likely be the top, until we get out of this muddle-through phase.
Illini -- let's hope that today's profit taking due to the fear of a bad payroll report tomorrow has exhausted all potential sellers and the market will rally (with TLT collapsing) tomorrow even if we get a bad payroll report...
ReplyDeleteLet me get this straight- both David and illini are short Treasurys, and also short the economic recovery.
ReplyDeleteThe ultimate would be a 'bad' jobs number, and the market rallies hard.
ReplyDeleteThe market wants to rally. So it will rally, regardless of any 'news.'
ReplyDeleteI can choke on those words tomorrow. But tomorrow's another day. Hitting the sack. Lights out.
ReplyDelete2nd - You are right about the inconsistency via short TLT and short the economy. The short TLT will likely be a quickie for me and a hedge against a few longs.
ReplyDeleteI should heed Felix Zulauf in an 8/15 interview on CNNmoney: Avoid stocks and corporate bonds, buy gold and short term/intermediate term treasuries.
"Let me get this straight- both David and illini are short Treasurys, and also short the economic recovery."
ReplyDeleteMaybe that's because we talk what we think, but we trade what we see. :)
I'm thinking a bad employment report is likely to create a reason to rally, in anticipation of some form of monetary stimulus.
ReplyDeleteIt seems there's still a correlation between QE and equities prices, and with each "QE" murmur, the market appears to run briefly.
Or that could just be my imagination, Obama introduces his employment proposal Thursday next week, that might become a reason to rally.
Aside from a lower dollar(competitive wages), I don't see the employment recovery that the housing market apparently needs.
No way in hell Warren didn't know about this...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/business/us-is-set-to-sue-dozen-big-banks-over-mortgages.html?_r=2
Hell, he's got Obama in his back pocket and Becky in his front pocket doing who knows what.
I don't know of many people other than permabears that think we can go under 900 on the S&P...that would be a doozy.
ReplyDelete"U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages"
ReplyDeleteNow that ought to be interesting to watch the reaction. Wonder how much they stand to recover, bet it doesn't go far enough to cover much government debt.
BAC - Warren's deal could be pretty sweet, an option to buy a butt load @ $7.15 within the next 10 years.
HFT - SEC wants codes and strategies:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/goodbye-high-frequency-trading-regulators-seek-secret-hft-codes
I think tomorrow will be a day to move the market
ReplyDeleteon a low volume day. The direction will be clearer next week. Tnotes are being held up by Pimco dudes saying Euro will have to lower interest rates making treasuries appealing to foreigners as a currency hedge with the possibility of a collapsing euro.Of coarse the PIMCO dudes are always wrong and yet any drivel out of their mouths is spread at infinitude throughout the web. They have been negative on t-notes since tlt was 90.
We have the bad news. And at least initially, a bad reaction.
ReplyDeleteInteresting article CP. Be interesting to see if anything really happens.
ReplyDeleteMiners and Gold Strong!
ReplyDeleteWell, we got the bad jobs report - now let's see if we get the strong market!
ReplyDeleteBAC off 7%?
ReplyDeleteFT: US-based banks face mortgage lawsuits (Top Story)
ReplyDeletemight be a buy chance as goverment back stop is there
ReplyDelete"But i am skeptical, that the govt that is owned by banks will prosecute banks. and the further they push banks, the further the need to bail out those banks." i agree
ReplyDeleteEven if we pop here I see aa market MUCH lower in 6 mths
ReplyDeleteJB- You have any pivots down here for SPY?
ReplyDeleteNot cool:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.ITAGER10:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.SPN:IND
Both of these spreads for Italy and Spain continue to rise...
SVM, pump and dump.
ReplyDeleteUncle Roubini!
Just relax the government's of the world know what they are doing, good now I can sleep soundly.
SVM news... That was a rough open. Fighting back.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure what investors were expecting. So job growth was flat last month? What about next month, bros?
ReplyDeleteThis group is too smart for a posting like this but I do it anyway.
ReplyDeleteWhy large losses need to be avoided:
lose 25% you need 33.3% to get even, why dig a hole for yourself?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0I2ZrBuFdQ
Sweety don't look.
Hilda Solis- "We're trying very, very, hard".
ReplyDeleteOK, thanks.
SPY - Looking at some WEEKLY Pivot Levels...
ReplyDeleteFib-R1 Weekly = 119.26
SPY Currently = 118.34
DeMark Weekly PP = 117.30
Floor Weekly PP = 116.59
Thanks Kyle!
ReplyDeletelet's see if they can rally her from here...
ReplyDeleteThe safest play in my mind is to wait for the market to get at least 3% above the 200 DMA before going long...
This is probably short covering here guys. Would you want to get long here ahead of the weekend?
ReplyDeleteA baker's three that is gonna makes us good money going forward BEXP, WLL, AREX.
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend, you too sweety.
TOF, no update on graphene, sorry.
Mark - I'm looking at TNA, but not sure yet. FWIW
ReplyDeleteCiao T3D.
ReplyDeleteGMO hanging in there. You back in CP?
ReplyDeleteBack to day trading only Kyle?
Mark - Yep, pretty much. I still have small positions in DNN, SVM, ZSL but 96% cash otherwise.
ReplyDeleteMark - I have S1, for the ES, at 82.25
ReplyDeleteand the pivot is 1210
ReplyDeleteI'm probably screwing myself up but I'm now using MP, pivots and fib's, overlaying pivots and fib's on the same chart (my longer time frame chart) and using MP (with PA) on my short time frame charts (3min and 55 tick), only trading where there is confluence, less trades each day, but my hit rate is starting to move back up. not enough data yet but I'm going to stay with it for now
ReplyDeletemissed first chance on way to work, but BGU in play on bounce of $spx 1177
ReplyDeleteSLW - up against Weekly R1 @ 41.24...watching for short
ReplyDeleteJB- That's the setup I like.
ReplyDeleteDB lows didn't hold and is looking VERY weak...sure looks like it wants to go back to 2009 levels.
ReplyDeleteMy cash holdings are increasing nicely in value as the asset prices I'm watching are going down.
Mark - excellent! when are you going to move into full time trading? I'm finding that it does wonders for my BP
ReplyDeleteBro- About 2 weeks. I'm going to combat the BP issue by drinking.
ReplyDeletenow that's a plan I can endorse. going to implement it myself here in about 1 hr (5 p.m. in Germany)
ReplyDeleteDB- Boy, on a monthly it sure does TOF.
ReplyDeleteShit, missed it twice...damn day job
ReplyDeleteAt the close boyz...Smoke um if you got um.
ReplyDeleteThe only stock I hold is up nicely, but the problem is I only have 2,000 shs: NLS
ReplyDeleteBig UXG position has me near flat today.
ReplyDeleteOn the bright side, ECUXF up +6.7%.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Nope, I'm not in b/c I still think downside risk is too great. Someone's using HTF to snare fish before the dump.
ReplyDeleteSVM - What's this, an Bill Cara Pump and Dump?
I wonder if he sold his position and didn't tell us?
SVM - Speaking of this, the chart reminds me somewhat of that India chart from last year...what was it REDF or something...where there are these spikes then more roaches crawl out of the woodwork...
ReplyDeleteSLW - floor(daily)R2 @ 40.76 serving as support so far...
ReplyDeleteFreaking MITK....wow.
ReplyDeletePicked up a starter position in CVV at $16.99
ReplyDeleteGaN was another technology that was hyped a few years ago...
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gallium_nitride
There was an interesting nanotech ETF a few years ago (before things blew up), but I see they've moved away from the more speculative holdings...
http://www.invescopowershares.com/products/holdings.aspx?ticker=pxn
Well, I think there will be a lot of surprised shorts when silver is trading at $80 by this time next year, or maybe before.
ReplyDeleteSilver trading there will no doubt help put some wind into PM miner sails.
Kyle - Did GaN win a nobel prize and have IBM/NOK/MSFT/Samsung hyping it as the key to the future? Not being a smartass...just asking to gauge how it compares to Graphene.
ReplyDeletetof - What I'm saying is that many of these exotic technologies are in R&D labs and in small companies that professors and some of their graduate students have. The utilization of these technologies MAY result in Pay-Off for these small companies (after they are bought out), but they DO NOT represent an investable opportunity for those outside those privately held companies.
ReplyDeleteMEMS, RFID, etc...I saw many of these when I was working govt. satellite systems. Very smart, specialized shops that will be 'assimilated' when the time comes...
Well, that serves me right -- engaging in pure chart-based speculation is not the way to make money. Although I *am* surprised that the TLT chart has resolved itself the way it did. In any case, I just closed all my September TLT puts for a $3K loss, which was exactly the gain I made on SPY puts a couple of weeks back. Still holding my October TLT puts.
ReplyDeleteOn the plus side, both gold and silver rallied on the weak jobs report, pulling ECU up with them. With my 225K shares of ECU, the 2c gain in ECU.TO outweighs the loss I took today on TLT puts. :) So it is as if I was hedging my ECU.TO position with puts, which is a reasonable thing to do.
We could have gotten a good jobs report, which would have eliminated all the need for QE3, and both gold/silver could have collapsed. Now we are likely to get some initiative from Obama/Fed, which will permanently increase the stock of $USD and thus permanently increase the price of gold/silver.
What's up with SVM, by the way? What are people holding against it?
ReplyDeleteKyle - I think they're rapidly eunning out of room on Si, it's gonna be SiOI then most likely both germanium and GaAs.
ReplyDeleteQualcom just announced their chosen 20nm roadmap recently, SiOI for the time being.
EUV - I don't see happy days.
Kyle - I look at the potential applications Graphene can be used in, how much money is being put to work in it, all of the big players are backing it and then I see CVV's backlog and revenue growth, their market cap and valuation, and it makes me want to buy them.
ReplyDeleteAs far as CVD (Chemical Vapor Deposition) goes, LED's are a bright idea.
ReplyDeletetof - I haven't looked at CVV at all and don't plan to. I regard these as similar to biotech speculations. You don't know how what CVV does compares to other privately held spin-offs from say Lincoln Labs or Sandia, etc. Good Luck.
ReplyDeleteSLW broke below Fib-R3 = 40.76, small short position, looking @ DeMark R1 = 40.52 as next support level.
Kyle - gotcha..thanks. I like profitable fast growing, small cap plays over biotechs, but i hear ya.
ReplyDeleteanother one you guys should look at is CRMB...i like this company and think the valuation is getting enticing the lower it gets...
tof - OK so looked at the yahoo profile on CVV...it's an equipment provider in competition with AMAT, etc. So what product does CVV have that these other larger companies can't???
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/co?s=CVV+Competitors
SLW - rebounded to hit the DeMark R1 @ 40.52. Let's see if this lvl serves as rejection or I exit w/ small change.
ReplyDeleteI looked at the daily TLT chart again now, and it definitely doesn't look bearish anymore. In fact, it looks quite bullish, suggesting that TLT can easily go higher in the short term. So I decided to sell my October TLT puts as well, which I just did for a $1.5K loss, which completely offset the gain I made on the SPY calls I purchased when S&P made a double bottom at $1120. I may revisit TLT puts again after the Fed's meeting in September (especially if they announce some new bond buying program and the bond traders start actively selling their positions to the Fed, as they like to do, bringing down the whole bond market).
ReplyDeleteSVM - Looks like it Hurt Some Over at CC...
ReplyDeleteSVM-Stopped Out at $7.69
Submitted by papadynamite (215 comments) on Fri, 09/02/2011 - 13:29 #93956
A minimal loss but it cut right thru support at $7.70. Now down to $7.26. The next meaningful support is $6.00-$6.20. I'll step aside for now. Enough is enough!! Now 100% cash.
SOld my NLS from yesterday for a $120 gain...$100 after commissions. Will now use that to go on a nice dinner...
ReplyDeleteKyle - I'm a trader man...why you asking me these questions!?!? seriously, though, they have significant revenue growth, 20% of mkt cap in cash, and a valuation that is cheap. of course a big company can do what they do, but they're doing it and doing it well right now. The more big players that jump on the Graphene bandwagon, the better it is for CVV, which as of right now is the only pure play graphene company out there, with massive revenue growth and a cheap valuation.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more CVV at $17.19
ReplyDeleteTNK - Nice dividend, anyone like the chart?
ReplyDeletetof - CVV - they're an equipment provider, do they have any patents in graphene technology??? When u say they're the 'only pure play...' that usually equates to patents right???
ReplyDeleteSandia --- Graphene
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sandia.gov/LabNews/ln03-26-10/labnews03-26-10.pdf
CVV - "what product does CVV have that these other larger companies can't???"
ReplyDeleteIt must be graphine.
cp - they're an equipment PROVIDER as best as I can tell from the yahoo Profile. Not the material itself, but maybe I'm wrong.
ReplyDeleteThe daily volume is < 150k...not my type of deal
Kyle - Yep they make equipment used for testing...profits and revenues are exploding. Client list is here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cvdequipment.com/company/customers/
As of right now it's the only "play" on graphene that I can find...
I agree that the volume isn't great but I've seen a pattern of higher highs and when it moves up it moves up on volume...Volume has been growing over time as well....
tof - OK, man Peace!!! My speculative deal is looking at shorting the Oct 25 ERX puts AFTER the O speech...
ReplyDeleteUmmm can someone please talk me off the ledge...I'm considering investing in RAS right now. They have paid a dividend of $0.15 already for the first half of this year...and there is pretty substantial insider buying...
ReplyDeleteTBT- Wow!
ReplyDelete2nd- We might be refinancing again soon. Looks like traders are thinking the fed goes out on the curve.
Wow.
tof - u have BALLS Bigger than hurricane Irene ...Good Luck Man...
ReplyDeleteTZA - I'm sure Vad has been on this 'Milk Train' since noon'ish...
ReplyDeleteKyle - From that Sandia graphine article: "Scientists are excited by its potential".
ReplyDeletePerhaps graphine is one of those rare materials necessary for the next generation space travel. It appears they may have stumbled on some unique materials with never before seen properties:
"The team uses unorthodox material science and investigative techniques to investigate a series of unexplained, often ghastly occurrences, which are related to mysteries surrounding a parallel universe."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/08/11/us-air-force-hypersonic-glider-_n_924445.html
I'm gonna hold off but RAS sure looks like a good divvy play at this point. They had over $200k in insider buying recently. I suspect that dividend is good and possibly going higher going forward. Right now it's a 6.8% div. Shit if the market can just stabilize you could get a double plus a 10%+ dividend. In fact that dividend could rise much higher over time if things improve...big if but who knows...
ReplyDeletecp - that's what we need my Star-Trek friend...
ReplyDeleteNow if they can only connect Graphine w/ ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calabi-Yau_manifold
rental properties are doing extremely well in this economy so that's why I'm thinking RAS could be a smart play now...especially after a 70% drop in the stock price, heavy insider buying, and a 7% dividend that was previously only 2.5%...
ReplyDeletePage down to applications in super-string theory, the belief is that at each point in normal 4-dimensional space (3 space + 1 time), there is a 6-dimensional space which permits all the diversification present in the elementary particles. So maybe w/ the introduction of graphine, we get WARP-Drive...OR maybe NOT... BUT WTFKnows
ReplyDeleteTOF- RAS leases MITK's office space who just put in a new gym with NLS equipment.
ReplyDeleteRAS is, however, a widow's maker. But Mark...you and I did score nicely in that stock earlier this year. Double dip?
ReplyDeleteOr wait for firmer market footing?
ReplyDeleteJeez the concept of a 7% dividend with the possibility of it rising significantly over time is pretty enticing...would be nice to sit back and collect cash.
Kyle - True, my investment in transparent aluminum took an eternity to pay off, but these new materials are nothing short of exciting. It's possible, with more research, to totally eliminate the need for transportation fuels:
ReplyDelete"Much of the development process involves a parallel universe that mostly mirrors the prime universe, but with numerous historical idiosyncrasies. The scientists were strongly interested in "world building", and the parallel universe allowed them to demonstrate a very similar world with a large amount of detail to fill in the texture of the world. A parallel universe would also allow them to show "how small choices that you make define you as a person and can change your life in large ways down the line", according to scientist Jeff Pinkner."
You know, a lot of individual charts I look at have tiny inverted H&S patterns.
ReplyDeleteRAS- I never really had some of the problems with it you did. I've continued to follow it.
ReplyDeletecp - What I want to Know is whether They have BETTER ALCOHOL than we do????
ReplyDeleteKyle - I never questioned the design of the Calabi–Yau manifold, I just never understood how it could be constructed using conventional materials.
ReplyDeleteWe might be closing in on the answer, I'd always knew eventually we would resolve a high tech solution for this low-tech problem.
Mark - Yep I totally agree with the I-H&S thing...this pattern has failed the market the last 3 times though...
ReplyDeleteHaving said that I did just go long C at $28.6 on that thesis (and the cheap perceived valuation and large drop in price).
RIMM - Doesn't Intel have sufficient cash to buy RIMM?
ReplyDelete"What I want to Know is whether They have BETTER ALCOHOL than we do???? "
ReplyDeleteIt must be, isn't there always a better perspective?
Long starter position in RAS at $3.53.
ReplyDeletetof - REDF...wasn't that the Indian stock from last year or have I drank too much alcohol from cp's alternate universe???? ... it was REDF wasn't it????
ReplyDeleteREDF- Yes.
ReplyDeleteKyle - Yep REDF...i'm still watching it but the rev growth hasn't quite materialized yet....the big broadband rollout in india should have an impact on them but its not having one yet....total broadband users in india is still extremely low relative to pop'n...which is why i'm so bullish on MMYT longer term....
ReplyDeleteREDF - But some of those sharp selloffs were due to some undisclosed acquisition by the CEO that came to light...weren't they or am I not recalling correctly???
ReplyDeleteKyle - well that's what got me scared out of the stock...the CEO started up a company called Vubites which has something to do with local TV advertising if I recall correctly..anyway, the company unanimously agreed to purchase the company from him despite it having no direct link to their core business and not being profitable. Having seen the mess at Satyam close up (I was short the stock before the scandal because they did some shady ass deal with their own CEO where they bought some unrelated biz) I was worried the same thing would happen at REDF...clearly that's not the case. I think they're just trying to put money in a bunch of areas and hope they stick...
ReplyDeletetof - OK man. You've clearly got the energy and experience to track these ins-and-outs of these companies much better than me. Play Through...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AmxcmpR1GQA
Pool and a pond... Pond be good for you.
ReplyDeletetof - Good. Glad we Understand Each other...
ReplyDeleteVad's Log Got a Facelift...
http://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/
Just curious: what's bullish about a sub 2% 10 year Treasury?
ReplyDeleteFED buying 10-year treasuries will impact mortgage rates ... or so the theory goes ... more pressure on lenders to refinance mortgages...
ReplyDeleteone of the things that encourages me about the recent trading the market is that there are still some risky high fliers were able to make new highs:
ReplyDeleteMITK, MAKO, CVV to name a few
also, the last few days when i was flipping through charts i didn't realize how well some stocks outperformed the market back in the 2000-2003 bear market. that gave me a bit of confidence to enter some longs today.
in particular, back then the blue chip defensive companies performed pretty well, as did REITs, and even some consumer companies. it makes it harder to pick the winners for sure, but i like the challenge.
ultimately, i think we have some more downside risk though so it's important to make sure that if you're long then your company can perform well in a tough environment. even if we don't it will probably take a little while to get out of this negative sentiment. no one knows for sure though so i suppose it doesn't hurt to start getting some exposure to equities at some point here.
for my personal furniture business, things continue to be pretty steady....neither great nor terrible...just steady. that's the same thing i hear from my friend in the semi industry.
granted, i've decided to celebrate a successful week of trading and ended the day early...i'm finishing up the first beer, fat tire, i have had in a while (ok, it's only been a week). so the buzz is kicking in a little bit and my thoughts are rambling.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm not completely convinced the market is cooked, as much as I think the US employment and hence housing situation, are.
ReplyDeleteMinority unemployment rates are running double that of the majority, indicative of a lack of demand for unskilled labor, I suppose.
Sure would've been nice if instead of moving next week's employment proposal to Thursday, it could've been moved to tonight, or maybe even last year. I'm pretty sure someone in some parallel universe somewhere has some ideas on how employment might be improved...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/291136-oil-exploration-mid-caps-find-promising-prospects?source=email_portfolio
ReplyDeleteThat's a confirmation for BEXP holders. I am not one now. Wish I was in my rush to 50% cash. My other oils are down more than BEXP.
Now I'm off for some Admirable Bird's Deep Fried Chicken Fingers...
ReplyDeleteSVM - Looks like the H&S neckline held to me, am I right?
ReplyDelete