Friday, September 2, 2011
09/02/11 Blue Skies
If the indexes sold off, then they needed to sell off.
How many times have I sounded off on making the most of a bad day? I had one yesterday- and used it as a launch pad to take care of all the crap I've been putting off. That's one way to turn a bad day inside out.
Today's sell off? I'm enjoying it- it's another launch pad. Markets climb a wall of worry- why not let traders stack as much anxiety as possible onto this one?
Side note- off the main post.
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Local politics. In the Bay Area, that means Chinese power brokers. A recent acquaintance is running for local office, and I offered to help. So I found myself in the boardroom of a local business this afternoon. 5 people around the table- the candidate, his Dad, the president of a Peninsula business association + one of his employees, and me. A great lesson in 'being connected.'
ReplyDeleteAlright, I'm joining tof. A bottle of Mission St. IPA. Not bad! You can find 6-packs at Bay Area TJs. Compares well to Sierra Nevada IPA.
ReplyDeleteTZOO is now below my basis. It's alright- I need the practice. It won't be easy holding when it hits 3 digits. But I see it as TASR 2.
ReplyDeleteI've done some informal research, and am happy to report to DT regulars that it's possible to consume substantial quantities of alcohol on a daily basis without suffering ill effects.
ReplyDeleteLet's begin with my favorite role model:
http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/addiction-in-society/200809/paul-newmans-beer-drinking
Beer seems to bloat me nowadays, more so than wine and spirits. Tonight am discovering Chivas Regal, a blend from Canada. Nice.
ReplyDeleteThe ultimate beer? It would have to be standing at the head of a crowded craps table at The Venetian in the midst of a winning streak, downing a cold one delivered by a cocktail waitress who is only too happy to bring a second round for another green chip.
ReplyDeleteOnly Mark would make it a black chip.
illini- I've never tried Chivas Regal. How does it compare to the Glenlivet?
ReplyDeletehttp://www2.potsdam.edu/hansondj/AlcoholAndHealth.html
ReplyDeleteModerate drinkers tend to live longer than those who either abstain or drink heavily.
The National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism has found that the lowest death rate from all causes occurs at the level of one to two drinks each day.10
Drinking alcohol in moderation (1-2 drinks per day for women and 2-4 for men) was found to reduce risk of mortality significantly according to meta-analysis of 34 studies of alcohol and total mortality among 1,015,835 men and women around the world.11
An exhaustive review of all major heart disease studies found that "Alcohol consumption is related to total mortality in a U-shaped manner, where moderate consumers have a reduced total mortality compared with total non-consumers and heavy consumers."12
A Harvard study found the risk of death from all causes to be 21% to 28% lower among men who drank alcohol moderately, compared with abstainers.13
(cont'd)
ReplyDeleteAlcohol vs. Lifestyle
Why drink to reduce the risk of heart disease? Wouldn't eating a good diet, exercising, and losing weight do the same thing?
No, it wouldn't. The moderate consumption of alcohol appears to be more effective than most other lifestyle changes that are used to lower the risk of heart and other diseases. For example, the average person would need to follow a very strict low-fat diet, exercise vigorously on a regular basis, eliminate salt from the diet, lose a substantial amount of weight, and probably begin medication in order to lower cholesterol by 30 points or blood pressure by 20 points.
But medical research suggests that alcohol can have a greater impact on heart disease than even these hard-won reductions in cholesterol levels or blood pressure. Only cessation of smoking is more effective. Additionally, other medical research suggests that adding alcohol to a healthful diet is more effective than just following the diet alone.9
Holy shit, man. Alcohol in moderation is more effective than a low-fat diet, vigourous exercise and weight reduction?
ReplyDeleteAlright, a token comment re next week's market direction.
ReplyDeleteWe rally on Tuesday. I guarantee it.
Back to DT:
ReplyDeleteAn Italian study of 1,536 men aged 45-65 found that about two years of life were gained by moderate drinkers (1-4 drinks per day) in comparison with occasional and heavy drinkers.21
A study of 2,487 adults aged 70-79 years, who were followed for an average period of over five and one-half years, found that all-cause mortality was significantly lower in light to moderate drinkers than in abstainers or occasional drinkers (those who drank less than one drink per week).22
A large prospective study found that older men consuming up to about three drinks per day and older women consuming over one drink per day had a dramatically lower risk of dying than did non-drinkers.23
A large study found that moderate drinkers, even after controlling for or adjusting for numerous factors, maintain their high longevity or life survival advantage over alcohol abstainers.24
A Danish study of about 12,000 men and women over a period of 20 years found that abstaining from moderate alcohol consumption is a health and longevity risk factor. Choosing not to drink alcohol increases the risk of illness, disease and death.25
A 14-year study of nearly 3,000 residents of an Australian community found that abstainers were twice as likely to enter a nursing home as people who were moderate drinkers. Drinkers also spent less time in hospitals and were less likely to die during the period of the study.26
A prospective study of middle-aged Chinese men found that the consumption of two drinks per day was associated with a 19% reduction in mortality risk. This protective effect was not restricted to a specific type of alcoholic drink.27
WTF, man. I'm going to reduce my risk of mortality by 19%. Isn't that better than increasing my portfolio this year by 19%?
ReplyDeletePopping my second bottle of IPA. Here's to Paul Newman.
ReplyDeleteAm I the only guy here who's able to drink and post at the same time?
ReplyDeleteNo, I am now.
ReplyDeleteBTW, with that outfit, shouldn't you be the one flipping the blackies?
How Alcohol Promotes Good Heart Health
ReplyDeleteThe moderate consumption of alcohol promotes good heart health in a number of ways, including the following:
Alcohol improves blood lipid profile73
It increases HDL ("good") cholesterol74
It decreases LDL ("bad") cholesterol75
It improves cholesterol (both HDL and LDL) particle size76
Alcohol decreases thrombosis (blood clotting)
It reduces platelet aggregation77
It reduces fibrinogen (a blood clotter)78
It increases fibrinolysis (the process by which clots dissolve)79
Alcohol acts in additional ways80
It reduces coronary artery spasm in response to stress
It increases coronary blood flow81
It reduces blood pressure82
It reduces blood insulin level83
It increases estrogen levels84
2-4 per day hun? Damn, I actually might be able to get it down to that if I really try!
ReplyDeleteI don't care how much I'm winning. I won't be flipping 'blackies' to any cocktail waitress. Maybe to the maid who cleans my room.
ReplyDeleteNo, not THAT maid.
ReplyDeleteAlzheimer's Disease and Other Dementia
ReplyDeleteA study in France found moderate drinkers to have a 75% lower risk for Alzheimer's Disease and an 80% lower risk for senile dementia.
Damn, man. WTF are we waiting for? Have a drink!
2nd - Damn You Talk a Lot ... Was conversing with Vad on the CC blog...That's one advantage of buy-n-hold...u just buy it and then drink....
ReplyDeleteThese damn smartphones...or this damn blog perhaps...can't just copy and paste that ppaul newman link...he was my favorite actor man.
ReplyDeleteHoly shit 2nd...great data on drinking. Fuels my desire for anotther one
Be prepared to get inundated with pictures of Hailey ( We call her Woo) this weekend!
ReplyDeleteMark- You're a big guy. I would say 'moderation' for you translates into 6-9 drinks a day.
ReplyDeleteWhat Is Moderation?
Medical researchers generally describe moderation as one to three drinks per day. It appears that consuming less than about half a drink per day is associated with only very small health benefits. Four or five drinks may be moderate for large individuals but excessive for small or light people. Because of their generally smaller size and other biological differences, the typical woman should generally consume 25 to 30 percent less than the average man. 114 And, of course, recovering alcoholics, those with any adverse reactions to alcohol, and those advised against drinking by their physicians should abstain.
Drinking in moderation has been described by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) as a man consuming four drinks on any day with an average of 14 drinks per week. For women, it is consuming three drinks in any one day and an average of seven drinks per week.
Standard Drinks.
A standard alcoholic drink is:
A 12-ounce can or bottle of regular beer
A 5-ounce glass of dinner wine
A shot (one and one-half ounces) of 80 proof liquor or spirits such as vodka, tequila, or rum either straight or in a mixed drink.
Kyle- You got it, man! How can you beat that combination?
ReplyDeleteNo trading, just drinking. End result? You make more money, and live longer!
Kyle- How many guys are in Vad's room now? I remember about 3? I always enjoyed chatting with him.
ReplyDeleteDrinking patterns appear to be as important as the amounts consumed. "The key to healthy, moderate consumption is a regular, one to three drinks per day pattern."117 However, drinking a "weeks worth" of alcohol over a period of a few hours would be unhealthful, even dangerous, and clearly to be avoided.
ReplyDeleteI read that as no binging on weekends, instead drink a few every ----ing day!
2nd - Both 80 proof. CR is cheaper. $23 vs $32 GL 12 yr. I will let you know in the AM which is best. Not a carefully controlled experiment. CR is taunted as the stuff brewed for Queen Liz in her visit in 39. There are a couple more expensive in the line.
ReplyDeleteCanadian whiskeys are a blend, meaning they have pure? alcohol added. American bourbons do not blend. Just charcoal filtered product. I never have liked the charcoal flavor.
Glenlivit scotch may be a winner.
No binging here....any more. That was a long time ago. Falling asleep on the couch @ 8:30 kinda eliminates that ;)
ReplyDeleteDavid still does though.
Mark - Looking at the log he posts @ EOD, it would seem about 8-12, of course I can't tell how many are silent listeners.
ReplyDelete8-12. Nice! Good for him.
ReplyDeleteWas WFC spared in the federal lawsuit? Is that possible, given they bought Wachovia?
ReplyDeleteWFC...It seems so. It seems to be more focused on the broker dealers. BAC's was about $5B while Merrill Lynch was like $30B.
ReplyDeleteJPM was $33B. No fing way in hell they have the provisions for these #'s.
ReplyDeleteThe balls to the walls move right now? Reduce loan principals by 15-20% for EVERY homeowner.
ReplyDeleteSure, a few people will get ticked off big time. Tough shit. Saving the US economy, Social Security and Medicare will be the payoff.
Look, who ----ed up? It was the banks. Let them take the hit.
ReplyDeleteHow would that save SS and Medicare?
ReplyDeleteSaving the economy will save SS/MC. Where's all that money coming from? Payroll deductions.
ReplyDelete2nd- Careful. That type of talk and Warren might wind up in your tub one day.
ReplyDeleteA few bankers who raked in bonuses during the housing boom will 'get away with it.' I can live with that.
ReplyDeleteIf he ends up in my tub, it's all over, man. NO one outside my family uses my tub.
ReplyDeleteArt reflecting today's sentiment:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ebay.com/itm/Chase-Burning-/190570913537?pt=Art_Paintings&hash=item2c5ee95f01
2nd - I know little about WFC now and I know little about Wachovia when they were merged. I do think that the A.G Edwards investment will prove to be a winner.
ReplyDelete2nd - what happened to that Jiffy-Lube picture instead of the I-Robot one???
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Rnafd8mvag
cp- They're asking $5k for that painting? Plus $50 shipping?
ReplyDeleteNot into robot killers, Kyle. The human ones are far more interesting. Here's a film I watched recently that succeeds well in riveting viewers without a single shot portraying a kill.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOym3GTG-tM
"Bershire owes about $1B of back taxes dating back to 2002."
ReplyDeleteChump change.
ReplyDeleteQuote of the day mark...almost spit up my 4 th beer of the day which puts me on the border of moderately binge drinking and 30% less likely to have alzheimers and forget this post later tonight if the scale 2nd posted is correct....
ReplyDeleteBeing -----faced is no excuse for bad grammar- ask Hemingway. No go back and rewrite that post.
ReplyDeleteWorking on Nat gas right now.
ReplyDeleteTomorrow is going to be one of those 'Dad' moments when Woo get's in the game. She's more excited than before Christmas.
Don't worry, you guys wont miss it!
First game tomorrow is at 7:30. I can link directions if anyone want to come!
ReplyDeleteJobs report = Goose egg; well let's see if the turkey lays us an $2000 golden egg by Thanksgiving...
ReplyDeleteS Korean FeMo plants start restocking for Q4
ReplyDeleteSouth Korean ferromolybdenum plants have started to seek spot moly oxide cargoes on expectations of demand from steelmakers picking up in the fourth quarter, market sources said Thursday. Earlier this week, spot trades into South Korea were scarce. But buying interest increased Thursday following the rebound in the London Metal Exchange metal prices, sources said. Korean buyers were mostly ferromoly plants, anticipating a price rise next week. Chinese traders, the major spot suppliers to South Korea, have offered $14.50/lb CIF Busan while buyers bid $14.30-14.40/lb. A 40 mt deal was heard done at $14.40/lb CIF Thursday, but Platts has not been able to confirm directly with the buyer. Most ferromoly plants in South Korea are operating at below 80% rates currently, plant sources said. They are hoping to lift their run rates as ferromoly orders from Europe may increase in the coming weeks for October-December consumption. Orders were thin, although contacts have become more frequent. “There were inquiries, but the Europeans were checking our numbers,” said one plant source. “The Europeans wanted to check our stock level. But no business done,” said a second source. Europeans had indicated buying ferromoly at $35.20/kg or below, in-warehouse Rotterdam basis, which they could not accept, the plant sources said. South Korean ferromoly imports into Europe have been duty-free since July 1. Meanwhile, three South Korean traders doing ferromoly tolling business have chosen to stay on the sidelines. “It is a bit shaky. There are positive signs today, but things may turn negative tomorrow,” said one trader.
Excellent posts guys!
ReplyDeleteI've been leaning heavy on the health benefits of beer (alcohol) but for some reason the wife ain't biting.
How sad is this: the wife is at a sisters weekend in Boise and the Bug is up at Shaver for a b-day weekend trip with her girlfriends so I have the house all to myself and I "celebrate" by falling asleep at 6:15....DOH!
http://stocktwits50.com/2011/09/03/stocktwits-50-september-3/
ReplyDelete"Something smells in Europe and it is not only the Roquefort cheese. A quick glance at the chart above reveals that central banks in Europe and other government agencies trust FED more with their money than their local banks. No wonder gold keeps surging despite margin requirements raise. No wonder treasuries continue to attract money. The return OF capital has become more important that the return ON capital."
The website then goes on to talk about some stocks that have performed well despite a falling market.
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=393546
ReplyDeletefor 2nd
So is there any relationship between horses and mules vs the tractor, and the dollar vs gold?
ReplyDeletehttp://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JOeqVgu56E4/TmKeZUMXjpI/AAAAAAAAAWU/HpDApQp9QfA/s1600/1.26.11%2BHorse%2BTractor.jpg
Great link on the health of alcohol, 2nd_ave! My wife's father in Russia has a tradition of drinking 100g of vodka with dinner at home, and I previously didn't fully understand why he was doing that. But now I know that his habit is based on solid scientific studies! :)
ReplyDelete2ND et all- Please pardon a mistake I made yesterday. I said Chivaz Regal when I meant Crown Royal. That is what I was drinking last night. Not scotch but a Canadian blend. I can recommend it but Glenlivet 12 yr might be smoother. No head ache from either.
ReplyDeleteCrown Royal - I recall Canadian Mist, I think it was, as a smooth, good tasting whiskey.
ReplyDeleteTwo dimes - Yes, you can still fill your car with gasoline for the amount of two dimes. Two dimes made of silver, of course.
ReplyDelete