CSTR will be off to new highs after the next earnings report, which I fully expect to blow the doors wide open. And then next quarter when they have a full quarter's worth of Netflix defections: all out surge higher. $100 is in the cards by February.
Check out this visual of TZOO local deal listings. Wow. And Benchmark downgraded the zoo today. Would love to get my hands on that report as local deals for September will be huge. Must be major cannibalization going on.
Latest from James K. I actually believe we will not only see new YTD highs on CSTR but I think the odds of new YTD highs on the indexes will also be coming our way in the next 6 months. The only reason being because its the least expected path investors have. Also, we have seen zero slowdown in our own furniture business and each time we have had slowdowns in the market we have noticed it in our own business, even though we're tiny.
I think most of the recent TZOO wreck is linked to GRPN.
-cut its revenue by 55% due to accounting "misteps".
-2nd COO leaves in past 6 months. "A COO leaving with all those shares? There's no question that this raises questions," says PrivCo analyst Sam Hamadeh.
-IPO roadshow halted.
-"The deals giant is also operating without cash. Groupon reported working capital of negative $305 million in the first half of 2011, SEC papers showed. Worse, company executives are cashing out from the $1.1 billion that venture firms invested. "You see insiders trying to dump the shares," Hamadeh says. So far, some $946 million has been extracted by insiders...."
100% retracement for TZOO since its breakout on earnings last October. I may have to add more. If local deals are sustainable at 400 (vs. 150 a couple of weeks ago), their should be significant money flow into the name- especially w/ 80% of the float short.
GRPN is not a long term business model. They have no sustainable competitive advantage.
Facebook keeps you because your friends are there. Linked does because the job network is there. Groupon, they do have a good mail list, but that's about it.
I think yipit (the daily deal consolidator) is probably best positioned for longer term survival.
Benchmark is reiterating its Buy rating on shares of Travelzoo (NASDAQ: TZOO), but is reducing its price target from $60 to $45.
The firm believes that management has the company back on track to beat its $11 million gross revenue estimate for September and its $32 million estimate for the third quarter. With shares down over 30 percent since September 7, while the Nasdaq has only fallen 3 percent, Benchmark reports that shares are well oversold.
Benchmark highlights that a market check indicates rapid revenue growth in this past week with repeat deals being a key driver. They are now forecasting September's Local Deals will top August's by at least 10 percent.
An analyst at Benchmark comments, "The recent re-acceleration of Local Deals has primarily been driven by a recovery in the US and the UK. Non-US/UK Local Deals growth is pacing up 35% sequentially in September and did not experience ongoing weakness in early September, according to our channel checks. Meanwhile, we see US and UK gross revenue pacing roughly flat m/m after being down roughly 10-20% earlier in the month."
For 2011 and 2012, Benchmark estimates EPS of $1.40 and $1.80 with $40 million and $51 million in EBITDA for the two years.
Heading to Vang Vieng today, where I kid you not, 8 tourists have died per day this month! A lethal mix of flooding, high rapids, opium, meth, mary jane, and a bar literally in the river every couple hundred meters.
I hope this isn't my last post lol. The markets will do just fine without me:)
i still think ppl not familiar with web sites dont understand the value of traffic...and therefore dont understand that tzoo has long term value. ppl think u can just start a site and compete and thatt theres no moat...i completelyy disagree
Illini, thanks for the article. WLL is one to keep and eye on as it has cheap assets. AREX is another but in TX. AREX WLL BEXP future money makers for us all. They have been moving around with incredible volatility and speed of late.
So do we sit here until something happens in Germany, like the vote on whether to bail or not to bail?
Wow, knowing how stubborn the Germans are, I'd bet they don't bail even though I think they should (the euro and the dollar are both too strong relative to debtload in the system).
Theoretically speaking, (and assuming economic growth is insufficient to generate enough wealth to overcome debtload):
Just as with any project, you first must assess the costs and decide whether or not you're willing to pay, it's just not acceptable to flush everything down the toilet based upon honorable principles that were violated from the inception (taking on unsustainable debt to begin with).
I don't see how the banks, as a whole, can't win the war unless we return to asset-backed currencies. Either way, the currencies get adjusted downward or the economies won't recover due to debtload.
Someone's going to default, it's just a question of how, not if. The market seems to be saying the currencies of the high-debt nations need to be adjusted downward or else the merry-go-round stops completely.
Glad to see things moving the right way today: $USD down, gold/silver up, TLT down.
TBT hit my sell limit order at the open, selling 100 shares at $20.83 which I bought last week at $18.87. Still have 400 more shares left at the cost basis of $20.80, so any further progress in TBT from this point will create profit on those 400 shares. Too bad I didn't go big time into TLT puts last Thursday...
Just bought 1000 more shares of SORL at $3.52 -- if things are indeed looking up, then SORL should move up with all other stocks. It's P/E is preposterously low...
Some decent trades from yesterday into today. Took of my longer standing VZ position @37 looking to 36 or lower. SPXU @ 17.49 off WAY early @ 17.65 (shoulda used a trailing stop) but got lunch money for it. Pick up a tradeable block of UXG yesterday @4.33 took it off at 4.80 today.
Bought BAC @ 6.50 near the close. Holding it for trade into tomorrow's Gap Higher (hopefully).
Considering putting 25% of overall portfolio into the Permenent portfolio mutual fund on next pull back in metals.
1.) Greek with default + small cut to bonds...market rallies 2.) Eurotrash countries' CDS spreads tighten dramatically, euro fund set up to buy their bonds takes advantage of lower rates and locks in longer maturities for Eurotrash bonds...market rallies more 3.) Morons in DC announce corporate repatriation deal as well as cut in corporate tax rate....market rallies more
We will see 1,400 next year.
CSTR hits $150 next year after: (1) realization that blunders by Netflix really did hurt their business (2) that the 12 million subs NFLX had doing both the streaming and the DVD rentals were only signed up for streaming because it was a "throw-in" and really the market for streaming is a lot smaller than people think (3) CSTR signs up a streaming deal more so that people will think it's not going to go the way of the dodo bird and be willing to pay more than 9 times FCF for it, but also because it has 50 million email addresses of people using its Redboxes and 10 million people following them on Twitter and Facebook and the streaming partner sees a ton of value in those followers (4) People realize that the streaming/kiosk combo is the best business model out there in the home entertainment industry (5) EPS grows from $3.20 in 2011 to $5.50 in 2012 due to fallout from NFLX blunders, doubling of number of kiosks and significantly growth in market awareness of the Redbox brand.
PZ, you may want to take a look at some of the mining service companies here. They are reasonably priced and should have good business for the next few years as all those miners which raised money the last couple of years go out and spend it. These guys print money when demand is high and you don't have to make a call on the supply demand fundamentals for a particular metal or financial market influence on pricing.
My favourite one is Foraca (FAR in Toronto, FRACF on the pinks). They are the 3rd largest driller in the world based in France with global operations. They pay a $0.04 dividend as well.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look any of the mining drillers trade on the major US exchanges, even the really large ones like Boart Longyear (Australia) and Major Drilling (Canada).
Foraca has a good investor presentation on their web site.
hehe...yeah sorry kyle...i'm beginning to sound like 2nd with the gap and go calls, but we'll both be right...
i took a look at that screencast thing you linked to. i don't see any discernible pattern that you could trade off the fib fan lines. looks to me like it would have cost you a good penny to short any of those lines.
CSTR will be off to new highs after the next earnings report, which I fully expect to blow the doors wide open. And then next quarter when they have a full quarter's worth of Netflix defections: all out surge higher. $100 is in the cards by February.
ReplyDeleteMy vote is for TOF to take over the new post duties. He could post a short clip of his favorite CSTR movies.
ReplyDeleteThe result being a further ramp in CSTR earnings:)
Check out this visual of TZOO local deal listings. Wow. And Benchmark downgraded the zoo today. Would love to get my hands on that report as local deals for September will be huge. Must be major cannibalization going on.
ReplyDeletehttp://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2011/9/23/230573-131679963573816-Bill-Wolf.jpg
That's a great idea. Next best would be for jesse to post his favorite pics of the Vietnamese/Laotian/Thai underworld.
ReplyDeleteNikkei basically recoups yesterday's losses at the open. What a freaking rigged game it must seem like to day traders.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/295803-europe-plan-in-works-is-a-game-changer
ReplyDeleteLatest from James K. I actually believe we will not only see new YTD highs on CSTR but I think the odds of new YTD highs on the indexes will also be coming our way in the next 6 months. The only reason being because its the least expected path investors have. Also, we have seen zero slowdown in our own furniture business and each time we have had slowdowns in the market we have noticed it in our own business, even though we're tiny.
I think most of the recent TZOO wreck is linked to GRPN.
ReplyDelete-cut its revenue by 55% due to accounting "misteps".
-2nd COO leaves in past 6 months. "A COO leaving with all those shares? There's no question that this raises questions," says PrivCo analyst Sam Hamadeh.
-IPO roadshow halted.
-"The deals giant is also operating without cash. Groupon reported working capital of negative $305 million in the first half of 2011, SEC papers showed. Worse, company executives are cashing out from the $1.1 billion that venture firms invested.
"You see insiders trying to dump the shares," Hamadeh says.
So far, some $946 million has been extracted by insiders...."
GRPN is a total mess.
100% retracement for TZOO since its breakout on earnings last October. I may have to add more. If local deals are sustainable at 400 (vs. 150 a couple of weeks ago), their should be significant money flow into the name- especially w/ 80% of the float short.
ReplyDeleteGRPN is not a long term business model. They have no sustainable competitive advantage.
ReplyDeleteFacebook keeps you because your friends are there. Linked does because the job network is there. Groupon, they do have a good mail list, but that's about it.
I think yipit (the daily deal consolidator) is probably best positioned for longer term survival.
Today's TZOO analyst report!
ReplyDeleteBenchmark is reiterating its Buy rating on shares of Travelzoo (NASDAQ: TZOO), but is reducing its price target from $60 to $45.
The firm believes that management has the company back on track to beat its $11 million gross revenue estimate for September and its $32 million estimate for the third quarter. With shares down over 30 percent since September 7, while the Nasdaq has only fallen 3 percent, Benchmark reports that shares are well oversold.
Benchmark highlights that a market check indicates rapid revenue growth in this past week with repeat deals being a key driver. They are now forecasting September's Local Deals will top August's by at least 10 percent.
An analyst at Benchmark comments, "The recent re-acceleration of Local Deals has primarily been driven by a recovery in the US and the UK. Non-US/UK Local Deals growth is pacing up 35% sequentially in September and did not experience ongoing weakness in early September, according to our channel checks. Meanwhile, we see US and UK gross revenue pacing roughly flat m/m after being down roughly 10-20% earlier in the month."
For 2011 and 2012, Benchmark estimates EPS of $1.40 and $1.80 with $40 million and $51 million in EBITDA for the two years.
How funny is this...People were making fun of GRPN at the tourny this weekend!
ReplyDeleteThat's not funny, Mark.
ReplyDeleteGet names and addresses, and I'll forward them to GRPN Anti-Defamation. We're talking stock prices here.
ReplyDelete2nd- These are travel soccer parents, bro. It get's boring making fun of our kids for 2 straight days.
ReplyDeleteHUGE HUGE insider buying in NCT reported tonight. Probably good for RAS which looks awfully compelling from a chart perspective...
ReplyDeleteI'll let it pass this time- but only b/c I'm no longer dating TZOO.
ReplyDeleteHeading to Vang Vieng today, where I kid you not, 8 tourists have died per day this month! A lethal mix of flooding, high rapids, opium, meth, mary jane, and a bar literally in the river every couple hundred meters.
ReplyDeleteI hope this isn't my last post lol. The markets will do just fine without me:)
Hong Kong +2.4%. Man it doesn't take long to reverse declines.
ReplyDeletejesse- We should all be experiencing/reexperiencing Nam that way. Don't forget the lead posts.
ReplyDeleteNCT...Yeah, and GKK.
ReplyDeletei still think ppl not familiar with web sites dont understand the value of traffic...and therefore dont understand that tzoo has long term value. ppl think u can just start a site and compete and thatt theres no moat...i completelyy disagree
ReplyDeleteTLT - The target was $124, I guess nobody wanted to wait around for the target...
ReplyDeleteI like ras
ReplyDeleteMark - "People were making fun of GRPN at the tourny this weekend!"
ReplyDeleteMark, sometimes I really wonder about the fiber and caliber of people you associate with... ;)
I have liked nct for weeks
ReplyDeleteCP- I hear you man, and from what my wife says, they feel the same way :)
ReplyDeletePiper Jaffrey just put a value on the TripAdvisor spinout from Expedia at $4.2 billion. So TZOO at less than 1/10th of that could have good upside.
ReplyDeleteThe SPX +54 call jesse made last Sunday was right on. It just took a few hours longer than expected. Pass the pipe, bro...
ReplyDeleteMaybe time to celebrate with a Laos happy shake....
ReplyDeleteRAS still down in the dumps...I like that one. It currently has a 7% dividend, which should grow.
ReplyDeleteI think NLS could really run from here.
KBW sold out, a little early.
ReplyDeleteCRMB might be the crappiest IPO i've ever seen. (technically it wasn't an IPO but still...)
ReplyDeleteNYT on Bakken gas being flared in ND:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/27/business/energy-environment/in-north-dakota-wasted-natural-gas-flickers-against-the-sky.html?_r=1&hp
I have a feeling we're gonna zoom right out of this range we've been in.
ReplyDeleteIllini, thanks for the article. WLL is one to keep and eye on as it has cheap assets. AREX is another but in TX. AREX WLL BEXP future money makers for us all. They have been moving around with incredible volatility and speed of late.
ReplyDeleteLong WLL
Good call bulls.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see you dodged another SDS bullet.
ReplyDeleteSo do we sit here until something happens in Germany, like the vote on whether to bail or not to bail?
ReplyDeleteWow, knowing how stubborn the Germans are, I'd bet they don't bail even though I think they should (the euro and the dollar are both too strong relative to debtload in the system).
Theoretically speaking, (and assuming economic growth is insufficient to generate enough wealth to overcome debtload):
Just as with any project, you first must assess the costs and decide whether or not you're willing to pay, it's just not acceptable to flush everything down the toilet based upon honorable principles that were violated from the inception (taking on unsustainable debt to begin with).
I don't see how the banks, as a whole, can't win the war unless we return to asset-backed currencies. Either way, the currencies get adjusted downward or the economies won't recover due to debtload.
Someone's going to default, it's just a question of how, not if. The market seems to be saying the currencies of the high-debt nations need to be adjusted downward or else the merry-go-round stops completely.
First up month since April? Anyone betting on it? Gotta be what? 10:1 odds?
ReplyDeleteAre you talking the market or CSTR?
ReplyDeleteBB - I'm talking the market bro....need to get over 1,218 I think
ReplyDeleteI'll take those odds.
ReplyDelete2nd - looking at option premiums it's actually only like 2.3:1.
ReplyDeleteGlad to see things moving the right way today: $USD down, gold/silver up, TLT down.
ReplyDeleteTBT hit my sell limit order at the open, selling 100 shares at $20.83 which I bought last week at $18.87. Still have 400 more shares left at the cost basis of $20.80, so any further progress in TBT from this point will create profit on those 400 shares. Too bad I didn't go big time into TLT puts last Thursday...
TRX?
ReplyDeleteJust bought 1000 more shares of SORL at $3.52 -- if things are indeed looking up, then SORL should move up with all other stocks. It's P/E is preposterously low...
ReplyDeleteMark - would rather have TZA than TRX... :-)
ReplyDeletea pullback into the close? the perfect setup for more gains. get those doubters off the train.
ReplyDeleteWas actually thinking a strong close might get some of the bears to start giving up, but strong hands are better in the long run.
ReplyDelete~1200 - I see shorts are making their BS call...
ReplyDeletePlace your bets!
Be nice when the market doesn't rise and fall based on which Greek or German Minister says whatever.
ReplyDeletePeople seem ready to buy if we can just put this Greece thing to bed.
BB - it won't be put to rest anytime soon and these morons in DC will start to fire-up in Oct/Nov.
ReplyDeleteSome decent trades from yesterday into today.
ReplyDeleteTook of my longer standing VZ position @37 looking to 36 or lower.
SPXU @ 17.49 off WAY early @ 17.65 (shoulda used a trailing stop) but got lunch money for it. Pick up a tradeable block of UXG yesterday @4.33 took it off at 4.80 today.
Bought BAC @ 6.50 near the close. Holding it for trade into tomorrow's Gap Higher (hopefully).
Considering putting 25% of overall portfolio into the Permenent portfolio mutual fund on next pull back in metals.
Guys - This is what we will see:
ReplyDelete1.) Greek with default + small cut to bonds...market rallies
2.) Eurotrash countries' CDS spreads tighten dramatically, euro fund set up to buy their bonds takes advantage of lower rates and locks in longer maturities for Eurotrash bonds...market rallies more
3.) Morons in DC announce corporate repatriation deal as well as cut in corporate tax rate....market rallies more
We will see 1,400 next year.
CSTR hits $150 next year after:
(1) realization that blunders by Netflix really did hurt their business
(2) that the 12 million subs NFLX had doing both the streaming and the DVD rentals were only signed up for streaming because it was a "throw-in" and really the market for streaming is a lot smaller than people think
(3) CSTR signs up a streaming deal more so that people will think it's not going to go the way of the dodo bird and be willing to pay more than 9 times FCF for it, but also because it has 50 million email addresses of people using its Redboxes and 10 million people following them on Twitter and Facebook and the streaming partner sees a ton of value in those followers
(4) People realize that the streaming/kiosk combo is the best business model out there in the home entertainment industry
(5) EPS grows from $3.20 in 2011 to $5.50 in 2012 due to fallout from NFLX blunders, doubling of number of kiosks and significantly
growth in market awareness of the Redbox brand.
Euro tanks -> $USD rallies -> Commodities & Equities Crash
ReplyDeleteShould make for some nice Fib-Fans....
ReplyDeleteNo!!!! Not fan lines!!!
ReplyDeletetof - Fib-Fans r pretty good at catching the 'waves' of advance or decline. Quite neat actually.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/A5M2q33rXgWA
CSTR... is that something new or have u mentioned it before???
PZ, you may want to take a look at some of the mining service companies here. They are reasonably priced and should have good business for the next few years as all those miners which raised money the last couple of years go out and spend it. These guys print money when demand is high and you don't have to make a call on the supply demand fundamentals for a particular metal or financial market influence on pricing.
ReplyDeleteMy favourite one is Foraca (FAR in Toronto, FRACF on the pinks). They are the 3rd largest driller in the world based in France with global operations. They pay a $0.04 dividend as well.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look any of the mining drillers trade on the major US exchanges, even the really large ones like Boart Longyear (Australia) and Major Drilling (Canada).
Foraca has a good investor presentation on their web site.
hehe...yeah sorry kyle...i'm beginning to sound like 2nd with the gap and go calls, but we'll both be right...
ReplyDeletei took a look at that screencast thing you linked to. i don't see any discernible pattern that you could trade off the fib fan lines. looks to me like it would have cost you a good penny to short any of those lines.
tof -
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/RG97Ztzon