The bull is alive. But I wouldn't expect it to immediately spring back to life. We move higher in fits and starts. Those not already long will need to figure out when each burst of buying will occur- a feat not only implausible, but completely unnecessary.
2nd - is this 'Terra Nova' and WTF does it have to do w/ the Fib-Fan lines that tof likes so well?
ReplyDeletekyle - i still don't see any patterns in those charts...do u use them?
ReplyDeletelatest from Jeffrey Saut:
Meanwhile, the SPX’s 10.8% mauling from its July 21st intraday high into the August 9th intraday “climax low” has left ~52% of the S&P 500 stocks yielding more than the 10-year Treasury Bond and ~53% sporting P/E ratios of under 12x earnings. Moreover, consensus earnings estimates have not really come down all that much with this year’s estimate pretty sticky at $98 and next year’s hovering around $111. While I think those estimates are too high, even using my lower estimates produces a P/E ratio for the SPX of 11.8x in 2011 and 10.7x in 2012. If correct, such estimates render an earnings yield of ~9.3% for the SPX with an equity risk premium of ~7.5%. To be clear, my estimates assume no recession for the U.S. economy, a stance not shared by most. However, if we are entering a recession I have to ask why are Baltic freight rates rising, why are railroad shipments and intermodal loadings increasing, why is L.A. port traffic perky, why are RevPar (revenue per available room) numbers tacking at double digits, etc.? Additionally, why have tax collections in the 46 states that have reported them risen 11.4% (year-over-year) in 2Q11, the sixth consecutive quarter in which revenues were up. Tax revenues had declined significantly the five previous quarters. It has been the strongest showing since 2Q05. All states reported growth in personal income taxes. Both personal income and corporate tax revenues increased 16.5%; and, sales tax revenues rose 5.9% according to the Rockefeller Institute. Nope, I am still in the no recession camp because our economy has not built up any new excesses that need to be washed through the system.
tof - Yes and we must look at things from alternative universes...
ReplyDeleteLet me refer you to the panel member best suited to respond to that question. Mark?
ReplyDeleteBreak on through to the other side?
ReplyDeleteKyle - Yep, I personally solely rely on moon cycles. Full moon = 100% position in kiosk companies.
ReplyDeletecp- You just cemented your reputation as king of the one-liners.
ReplyDeletetof- I don't come across too many people making fun of Gann for relying on astrology. As long as one makes good calls (and you make a ton of them), I don't care what you base them on.
ReplyDeleteMust be an East-Coast / West-Coast Thing ...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NLS+Interactive#symbol=nls;range=20090206,20110927;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
ReplyDeleteNLS longer term chart from 2009 still shows higher lows after each intermediate low. After each intermediate low it went on to rally close to 200% within 6 months or so.
2nd - yeah it's bad taste for me to make fun of them...i just see these lines drawn all over the place that don't seem to work except for a few random times and then they point to those random times as proof that it works. i mean to each his own, but it seems crazy to me.
ReplyDeletetof - why should I listen to Jeffry Saut more than looking at the GD levels on the Mother-F...... charts....
ReplyDeleteyou guys watching baseball at all? i know you SF guys probably don't care anymore but it's pretty rare to see collapses like the Boston and Atlanta collapses.
ReplyDeletei like saut only because he has been right on quite often. he uses dow theory a lot but he also looks at stats on economic activity. i wonder if dow theory holds up better than GD levels...who knows man.
ReplyDeleteAlright. Let's all take a hit and relax.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to trading styles, to each his own. There must a million ways to approach the markekts. Find one that meshes with your personality.
haha...i meant to say better than fan lines.
ReplyDeletekyle - i guess the other thing is i'm personally not a big believer that people can make a living calling short term moves in the market. but i know there are people that do it successfully. if those fan lines work well for those types of traders then i'm all for people making $$ any way they legally can.
Personally, I know as much about Jeffrey Saut as I do about fib-fan lines. Which is to say, I've read blog comments about both at one time or another.
ReplyDeletekyle - my bad man...i didn't realize you follow the fan lines. i brought this on myself when i posted about them yesterday after seeing the slopeofhope post. if they work for you bro by all means...
ReplyDelete2nd - Cool Man - One of the points made over at CC on one of the EOD posts is that u should ALWAYS see the other (opposite) trades' point-of-view. There's this yin-yang thing going on.
ReplyDeletetof - For better or worse, my background is signal processing, so I do believe in understanding what SP algorithms may be basing their decisions on. These algorithms have been programmed by humans using what procedures have historically worked. These levels -- ALL these LEVELS -- from Floor pivot points, Demark PPs, everything, Fib-Fans, WTF whatever are in these algorithms and THESE LEVELS ARE IMPORTANT...
ReplyDeletekyle - regarding those fib fans...do they work? if so what are the points at which you're supposed to go short/long?
ReplyDeletei'm looking at the new post that is on slopeofhope...go to 5:34 and pause it. after it's clear that the trend is down (meaning after the august drop), i honestly don't see any pattern that someone could use consistently and make money off it. i see these things drawn all of the time and i always wonder what people see in them. is it something where they have to line up with multiple other things in order to make a buy/sell decision?
TOF, just spent an hour going through the CSTR investor presentation from Feb. 16, 2011.
ReplyDeleteI was impressed with their management who - they really understand the business and I thought they would be more techie guys, but they are really marketing and CPG type guys who are using good approaches to grow the business.
The projected valuation for next year is reasonable and they are buying back a good chunk of stock.
May have to revisit my DVD's are going the way or CD's. And their Coin business still has really good margins and they are working on enw concepts.
Have you seen their actual investor presentation? I could only find the transcript.
tof - I haven't looked at slopeofhope but OK I will. Regarding Fib-Fans -- NONE of these Technical Indicators provide that ABSOLUTE of ANYTHING. The Levels or Trends may provide a POSSIBLE support or when coupled w/ PP or Fib Lvls may signal a CHANGE.
ReplyDeletehey BB - yeah i've seen it...i saw it from July, though, I think. you can grab it right off the IR section of their site.
ReplyDeleteto be honest, i'm personally completely unsold as to the future direction of the market. it's another reason why i like CSTR so much: it helps people consume entertainment at a much cheaper cost than the alternatives and the cost is so cheap that it should actually thrive if we hit rough times in the economy.
BB - I think the odds of us eventually going higher are good, but the drop in copper and the series of lower lows in CAT / IYT / XLF / EWG / DOW / AA all have to give bulls pause. It is what it is and we have rallied from much worse, but the smartest game plan if you're trading the market still is to wait for the S&P to recoup the 200 DMA decisively (as in at least a couple of % above it).
ReplyDelete"Yep..in my mind the major fly in any bulls ointment is the massive drop in copper. that's confidence shattering."
ReplyDeleteTOF, all major liquid commodities (copper, gold, oil) as well as emerging market ETFs dropped hard over the past couple of weeks because of the rally in $USD. But they have all rebounded over the past couple of days, and if the markets have indeed bottomed, these commodities will be moving up. So they are all conincident indicators, but hardly the leading ones...
david - if copper was a coincident indicator then an argument could be made for it signaling more downside to equities. that was a helluva drop.
ReplyDeleteSPX - the 1200-lvl was rejected today (the top of the daily candlestick was 1196'ish) the close was 1175'ish. This Europe thing is going to get worse...
ReplyDeleteDavid - the range of the monthly bar for Copper in September was the largest it's been since October 2008 and the drop since 8/1 was as large as the drop from 9/1/08 to 10/31/08. Back then the market crashed...and copper was indeed a coincident indicator for the drop in the markets. Maybe the current drop is also a coincident indicator...but this time for the European markets
ReplyDeleteThere are 2 things about copper:
ReplyDelete1. It is still above last summer's low and it is bouncing back sharply.
2. I do wonder how much of the price drop was financial driven as opposed to price driven. If I compare the copper chart to the industrials sector (XLI), they've moved pretty much in synch the last couple of years. There are some valid reasons for that, but I also think it is partially due to the ETF-ization of the world.
I am about 85% invested here. I think fundamentals are cheap and would not be happy about selling stocks down here. For the 2008 / 2009 crash, I bought stocks all the way down and, while it was painful, it worked out fine in the end. The hard part was people who got out from that crash did not get back in.
Are you still 100% in CSTR here?
A little good macro news and I think we are off to the races.
ReplyDeleteBB - yep I'm all in on CSTR...I have a lot of conviction in the company. I think it's worth significantly more than $1.4 Billion.
ReplyDeleteWPRT - 9/7/11 "Westport Innovations rallies nearly 20% following agreement with Shell theflyonthewall.com"
ReplyDeleteCopper - The biggest negative I can think of, assuming you want to consider negatives, is the Chinese housing market, or potential lack thereof.
ReplyDeleteSome say silver will be the first metal on the periodic chart to become extinct, but I'm not so sure it won't be copper instead.
Personally, I like the copper chart very much.
I actually have found fib lines either way to be quite useful.
ReplyDelete'This Europe thing is going to get worse...'
ReplyDeleteMe thinks so bro. I'm not good to go with any size until Greece defaults.
I have been off the grid for an entire week hunting. Basically we are at the same spot as when i left. What a boring market! I like fib lines on parabolic moves where there is no definitive S/R lines. THey work often. A good point to buy a BO of all time highs is once it retraces 50% of a vertical spike. Technically 50 % is not a fib line, but it is usually in the fib charting software, so what the hell.
ReplyDeleteLove RB.
PS Copper decline is probably a China story as CP pointed out. It inflated on supposed China growth and deflates on a Chinese growth rate under 8%.
What is a better chart Copper or Gold?
ReplyDeleteCopper is clearly predicting worldwide slowdown. Mid 2010 lows to early 2011 highs has 50% retrace at 3.75ish and from 2009 lows the 50% is 3.08.
Is Kyle and TOF talking Fan Lines or Fib retracement lines?
RB, kisses! The market has been anything from boring, but you better be really nimble. Agilent is in a box with a 20% range, buy the bottom and sell the top, yum. Sold A today for a quick day and a half 7%. These types of set-ups are all over the place right now. So pick your poison.
RB, what's roasting on the barbie from your trip?
ReplyDeleteKyle, like your take on the algo's man.
ReplyDeleteAlso saw my first Redbox and the poor people here are definitely using it plus made my first five purchases on Travelzoo which I think is a much classier act than living social.com Massage and facial for wife's B day and drinks and pupus with brother's in Baltimore.
FWIW
WPRT CEO intreview if interested.
ReplyDeletehttp://watch.bnn.ca/#clip528818
Placing a buy limit order for 1500 shares of CADC at $1.65.
ReplyDeleteZSL - A buy here, or is Germany going for world war III this week?
ReplyDeleteDavid - CADC is your kryptonite.
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of kryptonite
http://216.105.249.165/Mobile/news?id=436725943
Piper Jaffray is out with a research report on Coinstar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSTR) and it has an Overweight rating and a $68 price target on shares.
In a note to clients, Piper Jaffray writes, "We are following up our Aug. survey of 350 Netflix subscribers with a new survey of 250 subscribers and we continue to view the results as a positive for Redbox. Our latest survey suggests that among all Netflix subscribers, 18% will use Redbox more following the price change (vs. 24% in our Aug. survey). While the 18% indication of increased Redbox usage is down from our August survey, we believe that is partially because many more Netflix subs had already traded down to streaming only or quit the service by the time we ran our second survey in late September, leaving fewer respondents within our sample that would potentially increase Redbox usage. We see these results as another positive for Redbox, showing that those Netflix subs quitting the service or switching to streaming view Redbox as a primary way to obtain new release movies."
Shares of CSTR gained 72 cents yesterday to close at $44.66, a gain of almost 2%.
Analyst: Groupon Now Risks ‘Self-Reinforcing Path to Insolvency’
ReplyDeletehttp://www.pehub.com/120125/analyst-groupon-now-risks-%E2%80%98self-reinforcing-path-to-insolvency%E2%80%99/
And to think, they could have sold to google for $5 billion a year ago.
BB - that's crazy man. I wonder if TZOO will benefit from this.
ReplyDeletePuzzle piece.
ReplyDeleteQuick Hitter#2: An important trade to look at is the PLATINUM-GOLD spread. This precious metals spread is trying to tell us something about the state of the world economy or else is providing a great opportunity to purchase a precious/industrial metal at a very attractive price. If the European BAILOUT is truly as significant as the equity rally this week has shown then that PLATINUM should outperform GOLD as platinum plays a role as a store of value and in the global economy in its role in automobile production.
Last year at this time platinum was trading at a $300 premium to GOLD while at present it is an $85 discount. Is this spread telling us how slow the global economy is projected to be as auto production slows? Is there somebody dumping stockpiled Platinum to raise cash? Has the dramatic weakening in the South African rand led to platinum miners selling production as the DOLLARS rise against the RAND means increased profits in terms of RAND and thus pushing stockpiles onto the world market? Not sure of the reason but it is certainly worth watching.
PS. I doubt Groupon will ever go public
T3d - I was shocked that Groupon turned down the Google offer. While it could be a big blunder for Andrew Mason, I doubt he didn't cash out a good chunk of his stock.
ReplyDeleteGroupon...I can see that happening in a blink of an eye.
ReplyDeleteWTI/ANR etc. would have me nervous as a bull.
holy shit what happened to ANR? I remember when it was in the 50's.
ReplyDeleteT3d,
ReplyDeletethe Gold to Copper ratio is at the highest it has been since the March, 2009 crisis. This implies people are chasing gold for safety and dumping copper due to it's economic sensitivity.
Perhaps it could exceed this ratio, but that was the highest it had been since at least 1999.
If the ratio does start declining, that has correlated pretty well with a rising stock market.
Yeah, read an interview with Mason around that time about how his office has images from all the huge internet flameouts like theglobe.com and how he was determined not to become the next one - guess he was wrong.
Energy...Wow.
ReplyDeleteDo any of you guys feel under pressure when your in cash? I do.
ReplyDeleteMy buy limit order for 1500 shares of CADC was executed at $1.65 this morning. The worse the global economy looks, the higher is the chance that the CADC board agrees to sell the company to the CEO at $2.65 per share.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe how correlated everything is....just gross.
ReplyDeleteJust bought a couple more November $37.50 puts on DB, this time at $5.50 each. Just to give my port some extra protection against European mess...
ReplyDeleteCopper - Ugh, not doing very well here...
ReplyDeleteDB just broke below its 2-day low, S&P futures just made a lower high and a lower low on a 10-minute chart over the past 2 days. So some extra portfolio protection is indeed in order now.
ReplyDeleteThere is an optimistic scenario for the U.S. economy: Europe gets its act together. The pace of world growth quickens, igniting demand for U.S. exports. American politicians agree to a credible compromise that gives the economy a fiscal boost now and restrains deficits later. The housing market turns up. Relieved businesses hire. Relieved consumers spend.
ReplyDeleteBut there are at least two unpleasant scenarios: One is that Europe becomes the epicenter of a financial earthquake on the scale of the crash of 1929 or Lehman Brothers 2008. The other is that Europe muddles through, but the U.S. stagnates for another five years, mired in slow growth, high unemployment and ugly politics.
No one would intentionally choose the second or third, yet policymakers look more likely to stumble into one of those holes than find a path to the happier ending.
Why? Liaquat Ahamed has been pondering that question. He's the money manager turned historian and author of "Lords of Finance," the penetrating book on mistakes central bankers made in the 1920s. "Is it because people don't know what to do (or there's disagreement about what to do)," he wonders, "or is it the politics, particularly the reluctance to ask some people to pay for the mistakes of others?"
"In the '20s," he says, "there was much more ignorance" -- the disastrous fealty to the gold stand, the Federal Reserve's failure to understand its role as lender of last resort. Today? Mr. Ahamed can't decide if it's ignorance or insurmountable political barriers that keep governments from doing what needs to be done.
In the 1920s, two crises fed on each other: a banking crisis in the U.S. and a sovereign-debt crisis in Europe. (Sound familiar?)
In our time, the U.S. handled its banking crisis better than it did back then. (Yes, much better, despite missteps and criticism.)
But Europe? The problems go well beyond the inevitable Greek default on its debts. "We are discussing a broken ankle in the presence of organ failure," Lawrence Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, quipped last week about the fixation on Greece.
ReplyDelete(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal website, WSJ.com.)
The big issue now is whether a Greek default will be disorderly (bad) or orderly (better), and if European politicians can move quickly enough to build a wall around the much larger economies of Spain and Italy.
If they don't (bad), markets will demand such high interest rates from Spain and Italy that their economies will be crushed (worse) -- and so will big banks of Germany and France that hold so much European sovereign debt (even worse.) The resulting financial tsunami will quickly wash up on the shores of the U.S. economy.
Mr. Ahamed sees another, largely unappreciated lesson from the '20s. The few moves in the right direction then were too small for the scale of the economic disaster. After 1929, the Fed did open the credit spigot a bit. And Herbert Hoover did push through an increase in public-works spending and an income-tax cut, but they were small.
I also lowered my sell to open price for 20 November $2.50 ONP puts from $0.5 to $0.4. I really want to be short these puts...
ReplyDeleteIn our time, says Mr. Ahamed, "I don't think Keynesians or even monetarists ever realized that the numbers to make their policies work are so gigantic. Everyone had sticker shock." The Obama stimulus seemed huge and the Fed's quantitative easing-printing money to buy bonds-looked massive, but in retrospect perhaps they weren't large enough.
ReplyDeleteToday, political stalemates in Europe and the U.S. block both the short-term policies these economies need to avoid a return to recession and -- importantly -- also block the long-term course corrections required to get the economies growing faster in the future.
Europe needs to avoid financial calamity now and to decide whether and how it will move toward economic and fiscal integration or less integration. It cannot stay where it is.
In the U.S., it's hard to see what will power the economy over the next couple of years: It won't be consumers, still laden with debt. It won't be housing. Exports are up, but overseas economies are slowing. Local, state and federal governments are retrenching. Small businesses can't get credit, and big businesses look at all the above and won't hire.
One lesson from Japan's past couple of decades: A prolonged bout of short-term economic sickness can produce long-term malaise, a decade or more of little or no growth. "The Japan scenario has not been definitively removed for the U.S.," Mr. Summers warned last week.
A senior U.S. policymaker, a fan of Mr. Ahamed's book, called me the other day. "Promise me," he said, "that if you write a sequel about the Great Depression of 2012 that you'll note that I was one of the guys really trying to head it off."
It was, in a way, one of the few encouraging things I've heard lately. It conveyed a welcome appreciation of how large the stakes are. We'd be better off if more policymakers realized that.
However, in case Treasury yields keep going down, I just placed sell limit orders for 100 shares of TBT at $22 and $23.
ReplyDeleteAre we having fun yet?
ReplyDeleteGermany must've said: "FU, No Way"
I feel unemployment ticking up at a rapid pace now, meaning more jingle mail from underwater homes resulting in a new wave of bank defaults in the pipeline?
"Do any of you guys feel under pressure when your in cash? I do."
ReplyDeleteMark - Just from looking at past selloffs, it seems like if you're looking for confirmation that the lows are in and that at the very least you can make a trade, typically what I've seen is there is this massive selloff with tons of volume, then a rally that slowly fades away...then a break of the prior lows. If the prior lows are broken but within a few days after that it quickly rallies back then it's probably a great point for a trade to the long side.
Otherwise, if you're looking to go long for a longer period of time then it makes sense to just wait for the market to break back up above it's 200 DMA.
New low for UXG.
ReplyDeleteS&P - Gap up is closed now, resume trading.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Got to admit, CSTR has held in there.
ReplyDeleteUXG - They are majority silver player(maybe I'm wrong?), right?
ReplyDeleteYep, shorts are taking that one to the cleaners for some reason. I think we could see sub $20 gold soon if Peter Brandt's prediction keeps working.
http://peterlbrandt.com/silver-bulls-dont-worry-just-draw-a-lower-trendline/
Gold needs to hold over $1600 else we take cold bath, me thinks.
CSTR - I was going to buy that one 2 years ago, nobody was interested.
ReplyDeleteCP- You mean 20 silver, right?
ReplyDeleteNFLX's boom is what makes CSTR interesting to me. I remember seeing those on site boxes and thinking who the hell would use these things. Now I'm thinking the exact opposite.
ReplyDeleteQuick poll...What was worse:
NFLX dropping DVD's/raising pricing
OR
New Coke?
Mark - You know my take on CSTR man...eventually people will realize that not only does it not matter what the economy is doing but that should we have a worsening economy, it will benefit as people move toward it's $1 DVDs as a cheap source of entertainment. It's mind boggling to me that it's so cheap.
ReplyDeleteMark - I bet CSTR does a higher EPS next year than NFLX....yet people are paying 3 x the price for CSTR. When CSTR offers a streaming service, streaming + $1 kiosk DVD rentals will be the best option out there.
ReplyDeleteTOF said "I can't believe how correlated everything is....just gross."
ReplyDeleteYeah never in my life could I ever imagined the current environment. I was talking with a friend last night and we were discussing as there is basically no safe choice available. From my perch it either long bonds (no thank you) or short the market or names everything else has been a trap door. Gross indeed.
BB said, "the Gold to Copper ratio" thanks for that info. BB do you track the spreads yourself or have a source/link that tracks the spreads?
Brandt's negative on gold, he says it busted, but my weekly trendline and his do not match even remotely. That should not be.
Short term here gold is wrong position here. later gators
Took a 20Cent hit on my shares of BAC from yesterday, traded them in for a block of UXG tradeable shares @ 4.09.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, if you're looking to go long for a longer period of time then it makes sense to just wait for the market to break back up above it's 200 DMA.
ReplyDelete=> Unless fundamentally you understand the business and believe that the current price is substantially below the value as you've done with CSTR.
T3d, I just use Stockcharts for looking at ratios between stocks - just enter GLD:JJC and it charts this out for you.
ReplyDeleteMark - Yes, sub $20 silver, I should proofread more closely....
ReplyDeleteBB - Exactly man. It looks like we're most likely going to the 1,000s so my hope is that people stop just blindly selling everything and realize the power of the Red Box!
ReplyDeleteInteresting that on a day when Grece seems to be the center of problems that National Bank of Greece (NBG) was actually up.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/38451750
ReplyDeleteItaly and Spain still too high
Copper - Higher low?
ReplyDeleteCopper - Maybe no go there, the lower trend line appears to be $3.30, and the close was $3.18 based on my chart.
ReplyDeleteIn the "You can't believe anything you read" category - Goldman was calling for $5 copper a couple of months ago:
ReplyDeleteWednesday, June 15, 2011
Goldman Calls for a Subtantial Rally in Copper Prices in 2nd Half 2011, as Chinese Stockpiles Have Potentially Fallen 50%
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/06/goldman-calls-for-subtantial-rally-in.html
Glencore said essentially the same thing, with a condition:
ReplyDelete"25 Aug 2011 17:27 CEDT DJ UPDATE: Glencore Bullish On Prices; No Drop Off In Demand -CEO
- Expects commodity prices to remain buoyant due to robust demand, tight supplies
- Robust demand due to China, India and Asia; US,Europe flat but Germany pickin up
- Even if Chinese GDP growth slows to 8%, global commodities demand will still rise 4%
(Adds further details about Chinese demand in the 6th graph.)
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The chief executive of the Swiss commodities giant Glencore International PLC (GLEN.LN) said Thursday that commodities demand remains robust even amid current market volatility and said he remains bullish about commodity prices due to a combination of continued strong Asian demand and tight global supplies.
"Unless there is a break-up of the financial [system which we don't expect]--provided that doesn't occur, we still see robust demand in the commodity markets," Ivan Glasenberg told reporters on a call.
"We still see demand very strong in Asia, and the Chinese see this as buying opportunities. America has been flat [but is] showing signs of improvement," while Europe remains flat although Germany is showing slight demand pick up, he said.
He pointed to a combination of tight commodity supplies globally and strong demand from China, India, and Asia keeping commodity prices buoyant even if demand in the rest of the world remains flat.
He also said prices have been supported by the fact that "most of the mining companies are struggling to ramp up supply," keeping commodity supplies tight.
Asked for his views on China's monetary policy tightening, Glasenberg responded that even if China's economy were to grow at a slower rate of 8% this year, global commodities demand would still grow 4% because China consumes about half of the world's commodities.
Glasenberg said he is hopeful the company will deliver good results in the second half after posting a 57% on year rise in first-half adjusted net income to $2.45 billion.
He noted that the industrial division should benefit from commodity prices which should maintain their current levels. He wasn't able to say how the marketing division would perform but he said that the oil marketing division has had a strong first quarter performance, a poor second quarter, and noted that the start to the third quarter was "not bad" although he didn't expect it to recover to first-quarter levels.
-By Alex MacDonald, Dow Jones Newswires; +44 (0)20 7842 9328; alex.macdonald@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 25, 2011 11:27 ET (15:27 GMT) "
SVM - Mine preliminary trip report by Casey Research:
ReplyDelete"By Jeff Clark, BIG GOLD
The tour has been more thorough and transparent than even I expected. We've been privy to internal company documents, one of which is a daily tonnage report - something Rui sees every morning. It's abundantly clear that if operations were exaggerated, it would have to be quite an elaborate hoax. We met with officials from two smelters the company uses, easily seeing that the grades they report match what SVM has documented. We met with the company's principal accountant in China; a random review of one day's tax receipts and the SVM's internal spreadsheet show the numbers match. We also met with four officials from the National Tax Bureau, who informed us in no uncertain terms that SVM's subsidiaries have generated substantial revenue to the local county. "We welcome any scrutiny," they added."
More here, lower on the page:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/peering-silvercorp
Chart of SPX vs two Vanguard European stock indices, YTD. Who says Greece does not matter since it is small? It matters because of the really bad vibes which could spread to the rest of Europe and across the ocean. The chart shows the already bad vibes but not the really bad after shocks.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VGK#chart5:symbol=vgk;range=ytd;compare=^gspc+veu;indicator=rsi(7);charttype=candlestick;crosshair=off;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
"Who says Greece does not matter since it is small?"
ReplyDeleteThe Eurozone's handling of this matter sets a precedent, thus the concern over a domino effect with a potential of bringing world trade to a complete standstill.
Netflix/RedBox/Blockbuster - FWIW, my son with four kids 12 or under here in Peoria, Illlnois (..."how does it play in Peoria?") did the following today while I was at his home:
ReplyDelete1) Disengaged Netflix for DVD's but kept them for streaming.
2) Signed up with Block Buster for DVD's.
3) Asked me to drop him off at a Walgreen's (about 1 & 1/2 miles away) on my way home so that he could go to Red Box and jog back home with a video.
Myself, of the older generation (not quite a boomer), I have subscribed to NetFlix for a good many years but am tiring of watching any movies at all lately and have suspended my measly 2 per month subscription for the time being. I can see what I want to see on the internet, not movies but clips and then there are the new informative dot TV sites. Also,I have little interest in most of the modern movies coming out of Hollywood. Slam,Bang,Pyrotechnics and other forms of violence.