There will definitely be a lot of money made out of this crisis. I've got 1,000 shares of NBG (national Bank of Greece) that I bought as a starter position for $2.81. Luckily, I haven't added to it yet, but i see it every day and plan on buying more at some point (probably).
LYG (Lloyd)'s chart is the 2nd European bank I bought and it's chart looks much more interesting and is actually outperforming the market since the August bottom.
The hard part is knowing when it will be right to step in and buy these in size, but, if you can time it right, you will do very well.
Sony Corp. (6758), Japan’s largest exporter of consumer electronics, said it expects a “huge impact” on earnings from the weaker euro, underscoring the company’s vulnerability to the European debt crisis.
While the company hedged risks against the U.S. currency by hiring Asian contract manufacturers that settle orders in dollars, Sony can’t use that tactic with the euro, Hiroshi Kurihara, corporate treasurer at Sony, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. The electronics maker also doesn’t purchase many components from the region, limiting its ability to benefit from a weaker European currency, he said.
“There is a huge impact on our earnings,” he said. “There are no countermeasures that we can take for the moment.”
The comments highlight the difficulties Japanese exporters face as concerns over Greece’s debt push the yen close to 10- year highs against the euro, presenting an opportunity for South Korean exporters including Samsung Electronics Co. who are benefiting from a weaker domestic currency. Europe was Tokyo- based Sony’s largest export market last fiscal year, accounting for 21 percent of the company’s overall sales.
Concern Greece will default on its debt is dragging global equities and commodities toward their biggest quarterly losses since 2008, when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy froze credit markets. German lawmakers will vote on changes to a European bailout fund and Italy is set to sell bonds. More than half the global investors surveyed by Bloomberg predict Chinese growth will slow to less than 5 percent annually by 2016, adding to concern the world economy will falter.
“The market is priced for some kind of Lehman-like event,” Brian Barish, the Denver-based president of Cambiar Investors LLC, which oversees about $8 billion, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “If for some reason, Greece goes into an uncontrolled default and it spreads to Italy, which is a $3 trillion bond market, I don’t know how you’re going to put Humpty Dumpty back together again in terms of the world economy.”
Man I'm scouring the stock blogs / news outlets and just about everyone and their guests are bearish or cautious. My spidey sense tells me we might just get one ridiculous rally. I think the odds are we get a break of 1,120, lots of stops get taken out, then we rip higher.
1. NBG is actually in good shape assuming, and this is a big assumption, that Greek government bonds are paid. They have one of the highest capital ratios in Europe and profitable businesses outside Greece (main one in Finansbank in Turkey). If Greece decides not to pay it's bonds, there will be a big problem, but I think something more reasonable will be worked out.
2. They are the largest bank in Greece and have been around over 100 years. They hold a high percentage of the countries deposits and run the government payroll. They have survived previous government bankruptcies and really are "too big to fail" for Greece.
3. The stock is very cheap based on tradition metrics and the underlying business is good. They made profits every year for the last 10 other than 2010.
LYG really is a good banking business with 20+% ROE's who made a very bad purchase of mortgage company HBOS during the financial crisis and got killed on mortgages. It is similar to BAC and Countrywide. They've had to issue a lot of shares and the government owns about 40% of it now, so I don't see it going back to $40 range, but I can sure see it going up to $6 or $10.
You could also pick individual European companies for investment and that may be a better route, but buying the banks is just an easy way to get some leverage to an economy which is turning around.
To be clear, these are both small positions for me, but I am watching to add if things do start getting better and, if not, the losses won't hurt that much.
Agree sentiment is very bad. Been bad for a while though and it hasn't seemed to matter. Wonder if a decent earnings season might be the trigger to get things going.
Could also be some hedge fund liquidations going on to meet quarter-end redemptions in addition to people like MAN Group in England.
"My spidey sense tells me we might just get one ridiculous rally."
Me too, the banksters want to sell this bailout stuff as a wonderful thing and any progress is reflected in the market. Not big and committed enough runs out of steam for yet another rinse and repeat?
Yes, we're likely headed up (Contrary to message from my broker):
"Today's Market Summary
Most stocks are lower today. Although the major averages are little changed, declining issues lead advancing issues on the NYSE. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond is lower, its yield rising to 2.00%"
" TOF- Does the NFLX news reaction, along with CSTR's trading today bother you?"
Absolutely not. The past 16 months of trading for CSTR looks to me like nothing more than people trying to figure out if Redbox is legit. I consider this sideways trading period no different than that of GMCR from fall 07 to spring 09. People had doubts about their business (coffee? really? that's not exactly a growing business and Starbucks is killing everyone. plus there's so much competition - the same exact arguments people are making about Redbox).
About 80% of the time I drive by the kiosk near me I see people in line. I read multiple analyst notes saying they've done surveys of people and a large chunk of old NFLX customers have defected to Redbox. I spoke with a friend of mine in Boston and he said he remembers having a conversation with a Blockbuster manager a year ago that went something like this: "Hows biz? Not great. Really, is Netflix hurting you guys? No, Netflix hasn't really hurt us that bad...its those Redbox kiosks."
Again, I'm thinking longer term on this because I know the business is booming. I believe this quarter but more so next quarter, will be huge quarters for CSTR.
BB - Thanks for your thoughts on the Greece Bank. I guess it all depends on whether there is default and the aftermath of such. I am in the camp expecting default(s) with big trouble as a result, including recession. Kyle Bass made the case for all that in a video linked days ago at CC and his hedge fund was almost all short the SPX via puts as of June 30.
"(4) Do you think DVDs are going away any time soon?"
I doubt it, but keep an eye on TRID, b/c their acquisition of Phillips' digital TV design house means TRID likely owns the lion share of digital TV chipsets and smart TV's are the new hot thing in the pipeline?
The reasons I haven't jumped in are quite obvious(terrible balance sheet and can't understand why manufacturers like samsung/sony wouldn't design/manufacture their own, but the upside potential could be humongous for TRID, and it seems they do have big customers buying...
FD: I probably don't have the tools to do proper DD on TRID.
Chinese listings - US Department of Justice investigating possible accounting irregularities:
""There are parts of the Justice Department that are actively engaged in this area," said Robert Khuzami, director of enforcement at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
In an interview with Reuters this week, Khuzami revealed that a number of federal prosecutors around the country are looking into the issue, but declined to name them."
S&P futures made a second lower high since Tuesday and just made a second lower low, DESPITE the positive vote to extend the EFSF... It's the market's reaction to the news that matters...
Actually, judging from the chart, I wasn't expecting anything more than some talking heads to say their sugar pill isn't large enough.
Of course I can only guess what the talking heads must be saying, but I don't have to guess too much about what the charts look like. What I'd like to have are charts of Talking head correlation indicators. These are probably inverse to WTIC:gold, copper:gold, silver:gold. ;)
Bulls are running from the markets and my holdings? Yawn. I see a time when this euro trash passes, when China growth at 6% and India growth at 6% still provides ample boost to the global economy, and when housing actually provides a nice boost to our own economy. WHen? Who the hell knows. But I bet the majority of people won't be able to accurately time it.
Found a footnote concerning European Steel forecast:
"Although European stainless steel consumption is steadily improving from its trough following the 2008 financial crisis, there is still no real growth in demand when measured against pre-recession figures.
Even as far forward as 2015, consumption in the EU will show no growth on 2007 levels, Outokumpu executive Mark Perrins, told the 4th International Stainless Steel Symposium in Birmingham yesterday (28 September). (SBB, 9/29/2011)"
I'll be out in Yosemite tomorrow. So I am placing a buy limit order for 100 shares of TBT at $19.50, just to keep the money pump going. I can't imagine that long-term Treasury yields can decline substantially from here -- they will either oscillate in place for a while (thus the money pump) or will start a sustained rally.
Looks like I missed another crazy day. I want to re-enter MTL, TEX, BAS, TZOO, and perhaps AKS.
However, we have another big monthly bar, so I would expect big moves tomorrow and Monday (new month) as they close the month where they want to.
Of note, I see a potential weekly topping pattern in AAPL and a weekly breakout of a triangle pattern for VXN. Not particularly bullish for tech or semis imo.
what in the hell happened today. if you looked at the charts of WYNN, PCLN, AMZN, NFLX, AAPL you would think we had an absolute bloodbath today.
but it looks like everything other than the high fliers did well. shit even banks did well. i still think there is a major sector rotation going on and it's too early to get cute with those high fliers of 6 months ago.
Don't hear much about "the cloud" these days - seems to have gone out of favour, but it is a long term trend.
MGIC is still quite cheap at 12 times earnings with good growth. Their CEO is calling for big growth:
"The company forecasts revenue of $115 million this year, up from last year’s $89 million and $55 million in 2009. Bernstein said he expects sales to reach $165 million in 2012 and he’d be “happy” if the company could reach $300 million revenue, declining to give a time frame. "
I think in a good market, this could easily be a $10 stock.
As an aside, did you see marc andreesen at box.net predict that oracle is a thing of the past - all the startups he works with use other technologies now.
Let me put it another way. ---- Greece, and ---- the Grecian formula that's driving the markets down.
ReplyDeleteThere will definitely be a lot of money made out of this crisis. I've got 1,000 shares of NBG (national Bank of Greece) that I bought as a starter position for $2.81. Luckily, I haven't added to it yet, but i see it every day and plan on buying more at some point (probably).
ReplyDeleteLYG (Lloyd)'s chart is the 2nd European bank I bought and it's chart looks much more interesting and is actually outperforming the market since the August bottom.
The hard part is knowing when it will be right to step in and buy these in size, but, if you can time it right, you will do very well.
BB - I'm puzzled re your hopes for NBG (and in banks in general right now?). What do you think will happen in case of default?
ReplyDeleteLet's blitz a few resistance levels tomorrow. Rally mode.
ReplyDeleteGo long. Here comes a Hail Mary.
ReplyDeleteSony Corp. (6758), Japan’s largest exporter of consumer electronics, said it expects a “huge impact” on earnings from the weaker euro, underscoring the company’s vulnerability to the European debt crisis.
ReplyDeleteWhile the company hedged risks against the U.S. currency by hiring Asian contract manufacturers that settle orders in dollars, Sony can’t use that tactic with the euro, Hiroshi Kurihara, corporate treasurer at Sony, said in an interview in Tokyo yesterday. The electronics maker also doesn’t purchase many components from the region, limiting its ability to benefit from a weaker European currency, he said.
“There is a huge impact on our earnings,” he said. “There are no countermeasures that we can take for the moment.”
The comments highlight the difficulties Japanese exporters face as concerns over Greece’s debt push the yen close to 10- year highs against the euro, presenting an opportunity for South Korean exporters including Samsung Electronics Co. who are benefiting from a weaker domestic currency. Europe was Tokyo- based Sony’s largest export market last fiscal year, accounting for 21 percent of the company’s overall sales.
2nd the mkts could give a rats ass about greece. its italy and spain.
ReplyDeletei talked to my buddy that works for a major semi co with boots on the ground ppersppective of semi induustry. no tail off whatsoever.
Now I know why I never liked cantaloupe.
ReplyDeleteCover your eyes children...
ReplyDeleteConcern Greece will default on its debt is dragging global equities and commodities toward their biggest quarterly losses since 2008, when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy froze credit markets. German lawmakers will vote on changes to a European bailout fund and Italy is set to sell bonds. More than half the global investors surveyed by Bloomberg predict Chinese growth will slow to less than 5 percent annually by 2016, adding to concern the world economy will falter.
“The market is priced for some kind of Lehman-like event,” Brian Barish, the Denver-based president of Cambiar Investors LLC, which oversees about $8 billion, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “If for some reason, Greece goes into an uncontrolled default and it spreads to Italy, which is a $3 trillion bond market, I don’t know how you’re going to put Humpty Dumpty back together again in terms of the world economy.”
Holy crap what a finish to the baseball season. Just awesome.
ReplyDeleteMan I'm scouring the stock blogs / news outlets and just about everyone and their guests are bearish or cautious. My spidey sense tells me we might just get one ridiculous rally. I think the odds are we get a break of 1,120, lots of stops get taken out, then we rip higher.
ReplyDeleteIllini,
ReplyDeleteI like NBG for a few reasons:
1. NBG is actually in good shape assuming, and this is a big assumption, that Greek government bonds are paid. They have one of the highest capital ratios in Europe and profitable businesses outside Greece (main one in Finansbank in Turkey). If Greece decides not to pay it's bonds, there will be a big problem, but I think something more reasonable will be worked out.
2. They are the largest bank in Greece and have been around over 100 years. They hold a high percentage of the countries deposits and run the government payroll. They have survived previous government bankruptcies and really are "too big to fail" for Greece.
3. The stock is very cheap based on tradition metrics and the underlying business is good. They made profits every year for the last 10 other than 2010.
LYG really is a good banking business with 20+% ROE's who made a very bad purchase of mortgage company HBOS during the financial crisis and got killed on mortgages. It is similar to BAC and Countrywide. They've had to issue a lot of shares and the government owns about 40% of it now, so I don't see it going back to $40 range, but I can sure see it going up to $6 or $10.
You could also pick individual European companies for investment and that may be a better route, but buying the banks is just an easy way to get some leverage to an economy which is turning around.
To be clear, these are both small positions for me, but I am watching to add if things do start getting better and, if not, the losses won't hurt that much.
TOF,
ReplyDeleteAgree sentiment is very bad. Been bad for a while though and it hasn't seemed to matter. Wonder if a decent earnings season might be the trigger to get things going.
Could also be some hedge fund liquidations going on to meet quarter-end redemptions in addition to people like MAN Group in England.
Great charts on the Eurozone crisis over at http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/F/09/EUROZONE_REPORT2.html (thanks to cc for pointing this out)
ReplyDeleteWe see a huge rally today in the (gulp!) ongoing bull.
ReplyDeleteYes, if this is the start of a bull run, we w/out a single doubt, see a GIGANTIC rally today. If not, set tight stops.
ReplyDeleteLaos- If you could only see what my eyes see. I went to a cow dung eating contest this evening. I have nothing to add.
"My spidey sense tells me we might just get one ridiculous rally."
ReplyDeleteMe too, the banksters want to sell this bailout stuff as a wonderful thing and any progress is reflected in the market. Not big and committed enough runs out of steam for yet another rinse and repeat?
Jesse - How was the food? (LOLROFL)
ReplyDelete"Could also be some hedge fund liquidations"
ReplyDeleteYes, I've heard Paulson's fund may be involved there (customers unhappy?).
Yes, we're likely headed up (Contrary to message from my broker):
ReplyDelete"Today's Market Summary
Most stocks are lower today. Although the major averages are little changed, declining issues lead advancing issues on the NYSE. The benchmark 10-year Treasury Bond is lower, its yield rising to 2.00%"
Semi's/ momo's underperforming. Sold my stuff for a profit finally. Watching.....
ReplyDeleteVery overbought according to ST. 1-2 more weeks of sideways/downside action, and we are in for a bull run....
ReplyDeleteX/FCX...That makes sense.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Does the NFLX news reaction, along with CSTR's trading today bother you?
ReplyDeleteSndk, my indicator way overbought.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction: Media/Movie stocks will trade at a 10PE at best regardless of market conditions.
Tough market. Definitely not one for the smart money...not quite yet.
NFLX...God, what a fucking disaster.
ReplyDeleteLet's try to keep posts from straying too far off-topic.
ReplyDeleteHow much alcohol does one need to wash down cow dung?
2nd- Sorry man. What was I thinking?
ReplyDeleteJesse?
Market up BIG: Here is a list of the momo stocks on my screener-site. Not good guys:(
ReplyDeleteMomo Stocks:
GMCR -2%
MAKO -1%
TZOO -1%
PPO even
BIDU -4%
LULU even
MA +.73%
PANL +.18%
SIMO -.7%
STMP even
LNKD even
CVV +6%
MITK +2%
I think it's just the long-awaited rotation into blue-chip value stocks, jesse.
ReplyDelete2nd_
ReplyDeleteCow dung-
10% alcohol, 90% other...:)
If I'm still here tomorrow, I will bring my camera if I can get a waterproof container.
Dung fights, dung snacks, Guns firing, breasts exposed, and all sorts of crazy stuff.
The days are never the same out here lol!
Jesse, but did you win?
ReplyDelete" TOF- Does the NFLX news reaction, along with CSTR's trading today bother you?"
ReplyDeleteAbsolutely not. The past 16 months of trading for CSTR looks to me like nothing more than people trying to figure out if Redbox is legit. I consider this sideways trading period no different than that of GMCR from fall 07 to spring 09. People had doubts about their business (coffee? really? that's not exactly a growing business and Starbucks is killing everyone. plus there's so much competition - the same exact arguments people are making about Redbox).
About 80% of the time I drive by the kiosk near me I see people in line. I read multiple analyst notes saying they've done surveys of people and a large chunk of old NFLX customers have defected to Redbox. I spoke with a friend of mine in Boston and he said he remembers having a conversation with a Blockbuster manager a year ago that went something like this: "Hows biz? Not great. Really, is Netflix hurting you guys? No, Netflix hasn't really hurt us that bad...its those Redbox kiosks."
Again, I'm thinking longer term on this because I know the business is booming. I believe this quarter but more so next quarter, will be huge quarters for CSTR.
BB - Thanks for your thoughts on the Greece Bank. I guess it all depends on whether there is default and the aftermath of such. I am in the camp expecting default(s) with big trouble as a result, including recession. Kyle Bass made the case for all that in a video linked days ago at CC and his hedge fund was almost all short the SPX via puts as of June 30.
ReplyDeleteMCP having a particularly bad day...
ReplyDeleteAre you tubing Jesse?
ReplyDeleteMark - The questions you have to ask yourself about CSTR are:
ReplyDelete(1) Do you really think a fee increase of $0.15 per movie to cover the speculated increase in debit fees will hurt their business?
(2) Do you think people have defected to them as a result of the NFLX fiasco?
(3) Do you think their brand awareness has grown after Blockbuster went out of business and after the NFLX stuff?
(4) Do you think DVDs are going away any time soon?
UXG - Sure looks like low risk entry here...
ReplyDeleteMDW - Is getting there as well, not quite there. This one has really been resilient for reasons unknown to me...
ReplyDeleteMDW - This may explain the weakness:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Midway-Establishes-bw-1563910701.html?x=0&.v=1
"(4) Do you think DVDs are going away any time soon?"
ReplyDeleteI doubt it, but keep an eye on TRID, b/c their acquisition of Phillips' digital TV design house means TRID likely owns the lion share of digital TV chipsets and smart TV's are the new hot thing in the pipeline?
The reasons I haven't jumped in are quite obvious(terrible balance sheet and can't understand why manufacturers like samsung/sony wouldn't design/manufacture their own, but the upside potential could be humongous for TRID, and it seems they do have big customers buying...
FD: I probably don't have the tools to do proper DD on TRID.
TRID - "•Trident and LG CNS Announce Commercial Android STB Deployment"
ReplyDeleteWelcome news for me:
ReplyDeleteChinese listings - US Department of Justice investigating possible accounting irregularities:
""There are parts of the Justice Department that are actively engaged in this area," said Robert Khuzami, director of enforcement at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
In an interview with Reuters this week, Khuzami revealed that a number of federal prosecutors around the country are looking into the issue, but declined to name them."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/29/us-china-usa-accounting-idUSTRE78S3QM20110929
PKX - Haven't seen it this low in quite a while.
ReplyDeleteCP- Thanks for the MDW link.
ReplyDeleteTOF- That was easy!
ReplyDelete1-no
2-yes
3-not sure
4-no
S&P futures made a second lower high since Tuesday and just made a second lower low, DESPITE the positive vote to extend the EFSF... It's the market's reaction to the news that matters...
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised we weren't able to hold green so far today. Nasdaq getting killed. Have to see how we close.
ReplyDeleteTZOO spanking.
ReplyDeleteNot a good day for the high-fliers.
ReplyDeleteInsurance companies doing well today on the HGIC buyout - they are pretty much all really cheap here. Nationwide paying a huge premium.
BB- Still like MGIC here?
ReplyDeleteI'm probably the only one sick of El-Erian, I'm sure.
ReplyDeleteEl-Erian - Not sure, perhaps, he's flapping his yap again?
ReplyDeleteUsually that's when you run the other way, no?
Bulls! Can you guys for once hang on to the freaking ball!
ReplyDeleteThis is ----ing pathetic.
ReplyDelete"Have to see how we close. "
ReplyDeleteActually, judging from the chart, I wasn't expecting anything more than some talking heads to say their sugar pill isn't large enough.
Of course I can only guess what the talking heads must be saying, but I don't have to guess too much about what the charts look like. What I'd like to have are charts of Talking head correlation indicators. These are probably inverse to WTIC:gold, copper:gold, silver:gold. ;)
Put Staubach in.
ReplyDeleteSPX - Yearly Fib-S2 = 1021.51 ... roughly the 1020 target she's talking about
ReplyDeleteBulls are running from the markets and my holdings? Yawn. I see a time when this euro trash passes, when China growth at 6% and India growth at 6% still provides ample boost to the global economy, and when housing actually provides a nice boost to our own economy. WHen? Who the hell knows. But I bet the majority of people won't be able to accurately time it.
ReplyDeletesigned,
ReplyDelete2nd_ave
Try the onside kick.
ReplyDeleteThat's more like it. We need two more TDs in the next 19 minutes.
ReplyDeleteGD it! NDQ cornerback- pull your head out of your --- and get the freaking ball back!
ReplyDeleteNever have I seen such a sorry-ass bunch of bulls try to rally the indexes.
ReplyDeleteTNA - making its way back up to the daily Demark PP = 35.83
ReplyDeleteAlright, alright, nice. Let's go for a 2-pt conversion.
ReplyDeleteNDQ! Play like you mean it!
ReplyDeleteFYI...nemo's update on SPY levels (on of Vad's traders) from yday..
ReplyDeletehttp://tradinglog.realitytrader.com/2011/09/nemos-findings-mid-week-update_28.html
NDQ! Out! Put Jack Tatum in! NOW!!
ReplyDelete----, ----, ----. Even Tatum can't save this team.
ReplyDeleteTwo minute warning.
ReplyDeleteAs Steve Grasso would say...
ReplyDelete'pencils down as well as all sharp objects!!!!!'
Just win, baby. NDQ- get the ---- out of my sight and don't come back in the morning unless you're in the green.
ReplyDeleteWill the storm clouds expand from Europe to the US? I wonder, but have no conclusive evidence.
ReplyDeleteAnway, I like Copper at $3.25 as opposed to less than $3.18, any day.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$copper&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
Found a footnote concerning European Steel forecast:
"Although European stainless steel consumption is steadily improving from its trough following the 2008 financial crisis, there is still no real growth in demand when measured against pre-recession figures.
Even as far forward as 2015, consumption in the EU will show no growth on 2007 levels, Outokumpu executive Mark Perrins, told the 4th International Stainless Steel Symposium in Birmingham yesterday (28 September). (SBB, 9/29/2011)"
I'll be out in Yosemite tomorrow. So I am placing a buy limit order for 100 shares of TBT at $19.50, just to keep the money pump going. I can't imagine that long-term Treasury yields can decline substantially from here -- they will either oscillate in place for a while (thus the money pump) or will start a sustained rally.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I missed another crazy day. I want to re-enter MTL, TEX, BAS, TZOO, and perhaps AKS.
ReplyDeleteHowever, we have another big monthly bar, so I would expect big moves tomorrow and Monday (new month) as they close the month where they want to.
Of note, I see a potential weekly topping pattern in AAPL and a weekly breakout of a triangle pattern for VXN. Not particularly bullish for tech or semis imo.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VXN&p=W&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&i=p49504615724&a=113274686&r=658
TYP weekly interesting.
ReplyDeletewhat in the hell happened today. if you looked at the charts of WYNN, PCLN, AMZN, NFLX, AAPL you would think we had an absolute bloodbath today.
ReplyDeletebut it looks like everything other than the high fliers did well. shit even banks did well. i still think there is a major sector rotation going on and it's too early to get cute with those high fliers of 6 months ago.
Yeah Mark, still have MGIC.
ReplyDeleteDon't hear much about "the cloud" these days - seems to have gone out of favour, but it is a long term trend.
MGIC is still quite cheap at 12 times earnings with good growth. Their CEO is calling for big growth:
"The company forecasts revenue of $115 million this year, up from last year’s $89 million and $55 million in 2009. Bernstein said he expects sales to reach $165 million in 2012 and he’d be “happy” if the company could reach $300 million revenue, declining to give a time frame. "
I think in a good market, this could easily be a $10 stock.
As an aside, did you see marc andreesen at box.net predict that oracle is a thing of the past - all the startups he works with use other technologies now.
"what in the hell happened today. if you looked at the charts of WYNN, PCLN, AMZN, NFLX, AAPL you would think we had an absolute bloodbath today."
ReplyDeleteMakes me think it is hedge fund liquidation. Some hedge fund playing high flyers getting hit with redemptions and just having to dump stock.
No trades today. I will leverage my UXG position if we get below 3.75.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete