I do believe Hedge Funds are the movers in the market due to their enormous positions. HFT has to be a player also but is that not just a short term wash? Hell, I don't know. That's why I remain in 50% cash and waiting for opportunities.
I was thinking that the $5 monthly fee that BAC is imposing on debit card users would generate enough revenue for them and decrease the odds of V going through with a fee increase as some analysts have speculated.
I contacted the broker from DA Davidson that reiterated a buy on CSTR despite what he thought would be an impact from the speculated debit fee increase from V. He said he thinks this is a good point and that there's a chance that might happen. I think they're still learning the details on it all...will pass on more info if I get it.
Note this will have an impact on the dollar stores as well...I think FDO is less impacted by a potential fee increase because their avg order size is larger.
Seeing some potential setups, but don't want to risk anything the last day of such a volatile month and quarter...especially w/ semis weak on the heels of MU's earnings.
We saw 2 of the highest put call imbalances on record the past 2 sessions. Could be a very bullish setup over the next week or so. As always, we'll see how things start shaping up. And yes, I survived the river of death lol.
Market is falling on the same euro worries? Yawn. How many times do we have to fall on the same bullshit? I'm bowing out early today gents. More important things than watching this stuff.
And yes, this market totally sucks. If you're going to crash, just f'ing crash. For the average Joe, its gap in, gap out, gap in, gap out, gap in, gap out, gap, gap, gap.....
The average investor is losing 4 times the indexes based on this utterly crappy trading.
jesse - catch some sleep bro. there's better things to do than watch this nonsense. i seriously don't understand the rationale behind everything being so correlated.
Mark - it was at 09:51 and exited at 10:04. What I should have done was WAIT (there's that patience thing again) for the pullback in the 09:56-09:58 region and entered after seeing that the initial low of 37.75 would hold.
kyle - that actually looks like a decent longer term hold spot right there....ie swing trade i guess is what they call it. the stop out would be below the lows from a month or so ago. if we rally from here you could get 8 pts. risk reward is pretty solid.
mark - you still have time to get in on CSTR before it explodes higher. some day soon people will realize that the euro slowdown/recession won't have an impact on people's decision to rent $1 DVDs.
tof - you might be right. LVS was hit hard yday based on some WYNN news, so not sure how much further it could go down. Looking at the options, the Nov 30 strike puts (~1.03)have a delta < .15 so might considering selling those
they were talking on 'fast' about some china numbers coming out on Sat?? (after we close today), so hard to tell how that's going to go re. MCP, FCX, CAT, LVS, etc...
kyle - yep they're selling everything china quite hard...so it looks like china will most likely have a pronounced slowdown in growth...probably from like 8% to 5%.
believe it was joe terranova saying that if the numbers come out better than expected then FCX, CAT, etc may reverse quite sharply. I'm short some FCX Feb 25 puts that'll probably be OK, but the short MCP Oct 32.5's may become next weeks problem.
Man, I just looked at about 100 charts. 99 of them have broken bear flags to the down side...about an additional 15% lower. The only one that is still in it's bear flag??? SPY.
Ok so maybe not. It's probably a foregone conclusion that we're going below 1,100 right? I miss the days when a move of 40 S&P pts was insane. Now it could happen by the close.
Mark - Here's my email exchange with John Kraft of DA Davidson:
Me "John,
Do you think the monthly debit card fees that Bank of America and other banks instituted will have an impact on the increase that you are speculating Visa / MasterCard are considering? That is, you mentioned that part of the reason they are considering instituting these fees is so that the banks get reimbursed for the costs of the Durbin Amendment…would this decrease the chance of V/MC doing this?"
John "Yes, I suspect it may reduce their motivation. You are right, it certainly doesn't make sense as it will likely drive some retailers to set up minimum purchase requirements to use cards- which would backfire for v/mc. I hope they don't do it....we'll see."
The two potential short term downside catalysts I see are: (1) debit fee increase from V/MC...which might be less likely now that the banks are instituting monthly fees (2) Warner Bros going to a 60 day delay on new movies...Warner Bros is saying the delay to 28 days resulted in a spike in revenues so they may extend the delay, which short term traders would take as a negative, but would have zero impact on Redbox in my opinion.
Probably dumb but I bought 10 calls on FXI expiring next Friday in the odd chance the selloff in China is overdone and we get a reflex rally. I bought the $30 calls at $1.67.
2nd - for what??? No, I need to apologize for my loud out-burst a day or two ago. I mowed the yard & had drinks but no food so I'm sorry for my crazy posts. Sincerely Sorry...
It's too much, man. All those 3-digit opening gaps squandered.
ReplyDelete'Makes me think it is hedge fund liquidation. Some hedge fund playing high flyers getting hit with redemptions and just having to dump stock.'
ReplyDeleteI agree BB. The questions is, when will be done, and how levered were they?
I do believe Hedge Funds are the movers in the market due to their enormous positions. HFT has to be a player also but is that not just a short term wash? Hell, I don't know. That's why I remain in 50% cash and waiting for opportunities.
ReplyDeleteI was thinking that the $5 monthly fee that BAC is imposing on debit card users would generate enough revenue for them and decrease the odds of V going through with a fee increase as some analysts have speculated.
ReplyDeleteI contacted the broker from DA Davidson that reiterated a buy on CSTR despite what he thought would be an impact from the speculated debit fee increase from V. He said he thinks this is a good point and that there's a chance that might happen. I think they're still learning the details on it all...will pass on more info if I get it.
Note this will have an impact on the dollar stores as well...I think FDO is less impacted by a potential fee increase because their avg order size is larger.
Alright. Negativity at the open is good.
ReplyDeleteUgh, I'm tired of the negativity... So is everything out there on the table so we can finally begin thinking positively?
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking the same thing, CP. How much negativity is too much? 'Been down so long it looks like up.'
ReplyDeleteSeeing some potential setups, but don't want to risk anything the last day of such a volatile month and quarter...especially w/ semis weak on the heels of MU's earnings.
ReplyDeleteWe saw 2 of the highest put call imbalances on record the past 2 sessions. Could be a very bullish setup over the next week or so. As always, we'll see how things start shaping up. And yes, I survived the river of death lol.
Market is falling on the same euro worries? Yawn. How many times do we have to fall on the same bullshit? I'm bowing out early today gents. More important things than watching this stuff.
ReplyDeleteThe river of death?
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, this market totally sucks. If you're going to crash, just f'ing crash. For the average Joe, its gap in, gap out, gap in, gap out, gap in, gap out, gap, gap, gap.....
ReplyDeleteThe average investor is losing 4 times the indexes based on this utterly crappy trading.
I thought you were having so much fun you had to eat cow dung to keep from grinning 24-7.
ReplyDeleteGotta watch the market a little here and there to bring me back to reality. Or is it reality? In any case, calling it an early night.
ReplyDeleteChicago PMI was actually pretty good, but I guess it doesn't matter if Europe says "BAD" overnight.
ReplyDeleteI also kind of like the high-fliers being trashed. Get hope out of the market and maybe get some capitulation here.
jesse - catch some sleep bro. there's better things to do than watch this nonsense. i seriously don't understand the rationale behind everything being so correlated.
ReplyDeleteLVS bounce trade worked...just can't stay too long
ReplyDeleteSame as 2008 - 2009. Fear = correlation
ReplyDeletejeez that NCT is now paying like a 15% dividend. anyone follow that closely?
ReplyDeleteHa! I was just looking at NCT. I've been kinda quite for obvious reasons.
ReplyDeleteAnother interesting way to use MITK. They are set up to take pictures of checks that can be instantly transfred to pre paid debit cards.
Kyle just curious. What time did you buy LVS?
ReplyDeleteGee...The FICO dude on CNBC is a downer.
ReplyDeleteSo, have we begun moving towards stimulus yet?
ReplyDeleteLooks like we need some.
Mark - it was at 09:51 and exited at 10:04. What I should have done was WAIT (there's that patience thing again) for the pullback in the 09:56-09:58 region and entered after seeing that the initial low of 37.75 would hold.
ReplyDeleteIncomes fell in August, first time in two years.
ReplyDeleteThanks Kyle.
ReplyDeletekyle - that actually looks like a decent longer term hold spot right there....ie swing trade i guess is what they call it. the stop out would be below the lows from a month or so ago. if we rally from here you could get 8 pts. risk reward is pretty solid.
ReplyDeleteNational Mall needs $700M of restoration done.
ReplyDeletemark - you still have time to get in on CSTR before it explodes higher. some day soon people will realize that the euro slowdown/recession won't have an impact on people's decision to rent $1 DVDs.
ReplyDeleteIt sure feels as if they're waiting to ramp this sucker at the close, no?
ReplyDeletetof - you might be right. LVS was hit hard yday based on some WYNN news, so not sure how much further it could go down. Looking at the options, the Nov 30 strike puts (~1.03)have a delta < .15 so might considering selling those
ReplyDeletethey were talking on 'fast' about some china numbers coming out on Sat?? (after we close today), so hard to tell how that's going to go re. MCP, FCX, CAT, LVS, etc...
ReplyDeletekyle - yep they're selling everything china quite hard...so it looks like china will most likely have a pronounced slowdown in growth...probably from like 8% to 5%.
ReplyDeletebelieve it was joe terranova saying that if the numbers come out better than expected then FCX, CAT, etc may reverse quite sharply. I'm short some FCX Feb 25 puts that'll probably be OK, but the short MCP Oct 32.5's may become next weeks problem.
ReplyDeleteAnyone catch David Stockman on cnbc this morn??
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000048484
Every time I listen to him I come away with the feeling that we are just so screwed.
for what its worth I am seeing some green on my list. probably wouldn't be surprised to see a rally into quarter end that reverses hard on monday
ReplyDeleteMan, I just looked at about 100 charts. 99 of them have broken bear flags to the down side...about an additional 15% lower. The only one that is still in it's bear flag??? SPY.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'll join you in CSTR. I like all of your arguments. I just feel we need a quick sharp down spike on some news.
ReplyDeleteKyle..I missed him. Did you catch the FICO CEO? Yikes.
ReplyDeleteTake a look at SLB. It's actually forming a second bear flag.
ReplyDeleteOk so maybe not. It's probably a foregone conclusion that we're going below 1,100 right? I miss the days when a move of 40 S&P pts was insane. Now it could happen by the close.
ReplyDeleteMark..I missed that one. believe this is the link
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000048266
FWIW, SPY monthly S2 ~ 100, so maybe we go there in Oct
Kyle- That's the one. Not so rosy.
ReplyDeleteMark - Here's my email exchange with John Kraft of DA Davidson:
ReplyDeleteMe "John,
Do you think the monthly debit card fees that Bank of America and other banks instituted will have an impact on the increase that you are speculating Visa / MasterCard are considering? That is, you mentioned that part of the reason they are considering instituting these fees is so that the banks get reimbursed for the costs of the Durbin Amendment…would this decrease the chance of V/MC doing this?"
John "Yes, I suspect it may reduce their motivation. You are right, it certainly doesn't make sense as it will likely drive some retailers to set up minimum purchase requirements to use cards- which would backfire for v/mc. I hope they don't do it....we'll see."
The two potential short term downside catalysts I see are:
(1) debit fee increase from V/MC...which might be less likely now that the banks are instituting monthly fees
(2) Warner Bros going to a 60 day delay on new movies...Warner Bros is saying the delay to 28 days resulted in a spike in revenues so they may extend the delay, which short term traders would take as a negative, but would have zero impact on Redbox in my opinion.
Yes, SPY 100 is an interesting level. Thanks for pointing it out.
ReplyDeleteguys, ARGN, CVV, TZOO and AIS are green so the odds of the market going green are high.
ReplyDeleteWTI selling into the floor close.
ReplyDeleteTZA has that on-the-runway look too...
ReplyDeletePretty much covers my life...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/09/social-security-reform-bill-encourages-americans-to-live-faster-die-younger/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Probably dumb but I bought 10 calls on FXI expiring next Friday in the odd chance the selloff in China is overdone and we get a reflex rally. I bought the $30 calls at $1.67.
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with TLT?
ReplyDeleteheard on cnbc that the fed was going to announce their buy schedule for the 'twist' operation. It may have had a twist in it???
ReplyDeleteAh...Thanks Kyle. That was really weird...but now back to your regular sell off :).
ReplyDeleteMan, I'd love a few beers right now.
Mark - not sure if that was it or not. Can't find the schedule on-line. just the announcement...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/opolicy/operating_policy_110921.html
here it is...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Bids in on CSTR/RES/MITK.
ReplyDeleteTZA - here's the EOQ moon-shot..my sell pt is 53.20
ReplyDeleteTZA - WOW still head higher
ReplyDeleteNo winners.
ReplyDeleteMissed CSTR by .11/.17
ReplyDeleteRES by .04
MITK by .10
Alright. Bad Q3.
ReplyDeleteHappy to say goodbye to that Q.
ReplyDeleteCan't believe how poorly energy stocks did with WTI still at $80 and brent over $100.
EK - Check out the AH price, looks like media rumors may have been concocted in some sort of an agenda...
ReplyDeleteEK - 19,000 employees
ReplyDeleteSome hope:
ReplyDeleteSince 1928, S&P has averaged a gain of 5.55% in the quarter after a 10%+ down quarter. $$ (avg. gain for all qtrs since 1928 is 1.8%)
Since 1928, S&P has averaged a gain of 5.55% in the quarter after a 10%+ down quarter. $$ (avg. gain for all qtrs since 1928 is 1.8%)
kyle- Congrats. You deserve it.
ReplyDelete2nd - for what??? No, I need to apologize for my loud out-burst a day or two ago. I mowed the yard & had drinks but no food so I'm sorry for my crazy posts. Sincerely Sorry...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteComment on another blog said this should be the theme song of the FED:
ReplyDeleteDarius Rucker - I Got Nothin
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBA6-1hNSfE&feature=related