Sunday, October 9, 2011

10/09/11 Wicked Week



When investors look back on the calendar year, next week will be the one that bears will want to forget. The one that sparked the fourth quarter rally.

88 comments:

  1. I discovered a new beer this weekend- Duvel. A Belgian ale with a kick, 8.5% alcohol.

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  2. Opened a bottle after 4 hours in the back yard today. Between the little guy practicing soccer moves and a ground hog, the upper yard is basically shot. So I took a hoe/rake to 30% of the surface, added topsoil, and planted grass seeds. Scott's makes it sound easy: loosen the soil, add seeds/mulch, and water twice a day. But of course, the devil lies in the details. They leave out the fact that breaking up the soil, especially the hard clay we have here, can be a back breaker.

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  3. I have a feeling if you look in your backyard it may look like the movie birds! They love grass seed.

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  4. So far so good. Thanks for the heads up, though. I'll have to set up the 0.50 automatic to a movement sensor, and have it take down anything that moves in the yard.

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  5. I hear you 2nd. Just got back from a 25M ride, took a shower and settling in with my first beer. Budweiser. Shoot me, I like it.

    2 things of interest...

    1-It looks like the market likes the Merkel/Sarkozie make-out.
    2-The 49ers are 4-1.

    What's more unlikely?

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  6. And no, I don't care about the spelling!!

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  7. That's 25 miles, I hope. Not 25 meters.

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  8. Miles. Pretty flat ride but I try to keep up the speed. Trying like hell to lose a few more lbs.

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  9. Watching the news. The best looking chicks are at the San Diego 'OWS' protests. Not surprising, but they do seem to be blocking access to a Redbox.

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  10. Yeah they're making a big deal about the protest (and the girls) down here.

    Feeling a bit under the weather. Gonna try to watch "Your Highness", a comedy with the main character from Eastbound and Down, to help lighten the mood and hopefully make me feel better.

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  11. compliments of Redbox of course

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  12. OH shit I got to return my movie. Don't want to pay an extra buck.

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  13. There's even an Occupy in Springfield, Illinois. My closest and the State Capital. Things are moving and the weather is nice but when winter hits it will be bye-bye occupation up here and probably elsewhere.

    Budweiser - Still a great beer from St.Louis,my home for 43 years. Not sweet. However, Pabst took the Blue Ribbon back in 1904 with even a crisper beer. Not as good in marketing but a really great beer out of Milwaukee.

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  14. Redbox report: 10:30pm walked into Wal-Mart and witnessed someone renting a move, but there was no greeter there.

    Drove by another store on the way home and noticed a new Redbox machine just outside the store, I guess these machines are proliferating?

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  15. NFLX drops plan to split its business:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-abandons-qwikster-plan-shares-soar-2011-10-10?dist=beforebell

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  16. illini- 'Crisp.' That describes Duvel perfectly. It's almost like a dry champagne.

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  17. Added another $1k MELA at $5.67

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  18. Risk on fellas. I suspect the VIX cracks lower. Short VXX?

    btw - that news about NFLX in my mind validates the DVD business ain't going away anytime soon. And it doesn't ignore the fact that Redbox is significantly cheaper than anything out there.

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  19. Good to see the OGRe getting his ass kicked for once.

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  20. ESIC is a very interesting company and chart.

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  21. On a morning like this there are only six comments?

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  22. "When the Bond Market is Closed, the Stock Market acts like a bunch of school-kids with a substitute teacher." from a tweet mentioned on cnbc... :-)

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  23. SVM - Gapped up yet again, the fill would be $8.75.

    I'll just sit tight for now and watch, after having raised some cash late last week in case this week the fickle f'er's get bold again.

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  24. Added another 1k MELA at $5.45. Done with my position.

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  25. Wonder who bought into today's gaps up? Until these fill, and keeping in mind that prices could move yet higher, I can't help but feel gains should be harvested.

    Yep, the 99% rule keeps most of us off the train b/c we believe departure time still has not arrived.

    What's the real truth, have the fundies really turned toward the positive(that would be great!)? The charts look extremely bearish from my untrained and cautious point of view.

    Cheers to a H&S continuation rally and a fresh influx of employment opportunity.

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  26. Some excerpts from today's news:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Short-Selling-Rises-Most-bloomberg-3652051178.html;_ylt=Aldb3WZAUatu3ps6959Ykjq7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1bHZiNzkzBHBvcwM4BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNzaG9ydHNlbGxpbmc-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=5&asset=&ccode=

    "Borrowed shares, an indication of short selling, climbed to 11.6 percent of stock last month from 9.5 percent in July, the biggest increase since at least 2006, according to information compiled for Bloomberg by Data Explorers, a London-based research firm. Trades that profit when Chinese equities decline have reached a four-year high and bearish bets in the U.S. are the most since 2009, exchange data show."

    "Slowing economies are spurring short sellers after indexes in 37 out of 45 major countries tumbled 20 percent, the common definition of a bear market. Bulls say declines have gone too far, with the MSCI All-Country World Index’s valuation at about half the 16-year average, just above the level three years ago, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Losses since May exceed the combined gross domestic product of Brazil, Russia, India and China, data compiled by Bloomberg show."

    "Short selling, where traders borrow shares and sell them, hoping for a decline, is increasing even as equities approach the cheapest valuations on record. The MSCI All-Country World trades at 11.8 times reported profit, compared with 11.9 in the five months after Lehman’s collapse. The measure’s average price-earnings ratio since 1995 is 21, data tracked by Bloomberg show."

    Filippo Garbarino, who oversees $50 million as manager at Frontwave Capital Ltd. in Chiasso, Switzerland, said he has bet against shares of financial and publishing companies.

    “The market is so undervalued right now it’s kind of hard to take a short position,” Garbarino said. “But at the same time given the economy, it is hard to be long.”

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  27. With so much short selling out there, the world markets have a chance of having an amazing 4Q...

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  28. From another article today:

    "Emerging-market stocks are “cheap” and Pacific Investment Management Co. is buying in China after the nation’s shares tumbled this year, said Maria Gordon, an emerging-market equity-fund manager at Pimco.

    “We are definitely fishing in the more cyclically distressed areas of the market where valuations are very, very cheap,” London-based Gordon said in an interview with Sara Eisen on Bloomberg Television today. “We’re selectively accumulating positions” in China, Gordon said, adding that shares of Hong Kong-based insurer AIA Group Ltd. (1299) are poised for “a lot of capital appreciation.”

    THIS is the RIGHT approach to investing, the one also followed by Buffett and Hussman -- keep increasing your long positions as valuations improve REGARDLESS of the short-term news. On a 5-10 year horizon, the valuations make the news, not the other way around.

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  29. Just bought 1000 more shares of SORL at $2.99

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  30. Placed a sell limit at $3.50 for the 1000 shares of SORL I just bought, since my previous purchase of SORL was at $3.50, and so if SORL keeps going up, then I'll be happy that I'll start making money on my previous purchase as well.

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  31. MELA? Where did that one come from, or did I sleep through that lecture also?

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  32. Mark - Don't follow me into MELA...it was probably a dumb move. Its a biotech and I usually don't play them but they got an initial approval on their skin cancer detection device and are waiting on a final approval letter shortly. From what I've read it's in the bag. I'm playing a potential pop and only have about 4% of the port in it.

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  33. Shorting any NFLX pop is the right move. CSTR is eating their lunch!

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  34. Also, placed a GTC order to sell 10 February $5 puts on CAAS for $1.35 (current asking price).

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  35. Speaking about shorting VXX: the time to safely do so will be when VIX futures get back into the usual contango mode, which will start eating up VXX alive. For now the futures are in the backwardation mode, thus continually boosting up the price of VXX.

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  36. On a second thought, I just cancelled my sell to open order for CAAS puts. I have already made a purchase today in the Chinese auto sector (SORL), and since I am deep in the margin now, I should use my margin buying power very carefully. That is, I should wait until a further decline in the market before buying something else. And if we have just seen the bottom for the next year, then I have enough leverage to enjoy gains in the event of a steady advance in the world markets.

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  37. At the same time, I just looked at the 5-year SORL chart and saw that selling SORL at $3.50 is a silly thing to do. I cancelled my sell limit order with the determination to hold the shares purchased today at $2.99 for at least a year, to see how much long-term gain I can get from them.

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  38. The risk I am taking now with purchasing stuff on margin should be comparable to potential return. If equities have another leg down, then I'll start getting margin calls again, which is bad, as I don't have any more funds to cover those calls. In order to counter that risk, my potential return from current purchases should be HUGE, which is only achievable by doing buy-and-hold over the next year IF we have just seen the bottom for the next year.

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  39. People are quiet today, I see. Bears are in a state of shock, bulls are in a state of a disbelief. Except for 2nd_ave, of course, who predicted this course of events in his leading post...

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  40. Let's See how these weekly levels play out...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/lT9e6sp9r

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  41. David- Market moves (so they say) are concentrated in a relatively few trading days each year. Today's unexpected rally probably belongs in that category. If you weren't holding last Friday, then you missed it.

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  42. David - I'd like to think I was smart enough to be long going into this, but I suspect that my position in CSTR has little to do with the overall market. I also know that the odds of a big up day for CSTR are just as likely as a down one, so I'm never gonna gloat with this sucker.

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  43. MELA - I have tracked it for a couple years. It's up and down big time due to problems with FDA. Europe approval has been a recent plus as well as FDA limited OK. I still remember that it's a one product company. Not buying anymore but who is buying anything?

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  44. MELA - Correct last. I also played it to some measly advantage but will no longer. Still....If someone wants to buy them out?

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  45. Ca., Jerry Brown, WTF are we doing here!

    A 12 year old girl can get a shot for HPV which helps 'prevent' STD's, but a 17 year old girl can't use a tanning both?

    Market's going to crash under the weight of this stupidity.

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  46. Now the 17 year old girls will actually have to go outside for their tan?

    S&P - RSI(7) is now 1199/63.68, it last peeked at 1216/63.85

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  47. Mark- I actually agree with Brown. Tanning booths will one day be a relic of the past. Their only purpose is to enhance one's appearance (in the eye of the beholder), but at great cost- an increased risk of skin cancer.

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  48. Will today be a day for simultaneous treasury and equities selling?

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  49. Thanks for brightening our day, CP ;)

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  50. 2nd- I agree about the tanning booth's also. My point is parental control is played 2 different ways.

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  51. Little extra pressure for JPM ahead of earnings.

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  52. Yeah, I guess it's Big Brother Jerry Brown.

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  53. AA might be another clue. Couple of negative articles today and it opens lower but is now getting bought ahead of today's earnings. Perhaps a glance into expectations.

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  54. "Mark- I actually agree with Brown. Tanning booths will one day be a relic of the past. Their only purpose is to enhance one's appearance (in the eye of the beholder), but at great cost- an increased risk of skin cancer. "

    Yeah but one day they will be able to use MELA's skin cancer detection devices (pending FDA approval letter) to catch it ahead of time.

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  55. CSTR sitting right at the 200 DMA

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  56. What about treatment options? We now have HIV detection kits available, and drugs to ameliorate the condition, but I would still counsel a 17-year-old girl to abstain/use protection.

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  57. oh absolutely....i never quite understood the rationale behind tanning booths.

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  58. Sold my MELA at $5.54. Took a small loss on it. Decided to move that into a short position on FXI at $33.61.

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  59. FXI has filled a gap from 9/21/11...there is significant weakness and negativity surrounding china and i think the downside is not done. at the very least I see a retracement.

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  60. Be careful entering longs here. the market needs to put in a higher low first. I think the odds of retracing to 1,120 to 1,140 are high.

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  61. "Thanks for brightening our day, CP ;) "

    Sell in May and go away worked perfectly this year. ;)

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  62. CSTR looking nice...coming into resistance at $49.4

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  63. Here is an interesting article about the future of Asia:

    http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/john_mauldins_outside_the_box/archive/2011/10/10/where-are-we-compared-to-sept-15-2008.aspx

    Here is an excerpt from it, which should be relevant to those (e.g., TOF) who are trying to short FXI:

    "Among the growing concerns of a Chinese hard landing (not our core scenario), investors have shied away from what is conventionally believed to be the riskiest sectors—banks, property and (due to corruption and safety fears) rail. Ironically, however, in case of serious downturn in the Chinese economy, these are probably also the sectors that Beijing would feel the need to support aggressively—banks, real estate and property are sectors that have broad economic reach, and add to China's long-term structural growth story."

    Naturally, this article talks about a 2-year time horizon, so shorting FXI over the next few months might work out well. But at the same time, taking a long-term position in FXI might equally make sense.

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  64. Looks like China hasn't exactly been rushing to buy copper today...

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  65. CP- The best buy into the last panic was GMO under 2.

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  66. If we're going higher, WLL is forming a little flag here. I do agree with TOF though. We need to see a higher low overall.

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  67. Maybe a promise to print is food worthy of only a few days of rally?

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  68. GMO under #2 - Yep, and most of that happened all in one day if I recall. Someone panicked big time, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a retest before all's said and done.

    It's easy to panic out of a miner while the global economy looks poised to sail off the edge of the earth, there's a low probability of permits on near horizon, and insiders from China are under investigation for shady going's on?

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  69. GMO is like a time bomb for shorts -- regardless of what happens to Europe and China over the next year, once GMO receives all its permits next summer, its stock will jump above $10. And once it starts producing in 2014, its stock will jump above $50. How can one be short such a stock?

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  70. Actually, GMO expects to complete the 3M statement together with the county over the next week or two (maybe even this week), and this fact might move the stock up a bit.

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  71. HEK- No idea what's up with that one. Still a X+3B fav.

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  72. No one's perfect, of course. It's not taking anything away from X+3B to note not all of his favs have worked out. Wasn't there a Mountain View ad company he took a large position in that sold off, or was that someone else?

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  73. 2nd- No, that was him. I got hit for about 20K on that one.

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  74. 2nd - yeah man this market makes fools out of all of us given enough time. I know plenty of people that were investing (and are still invested) in BAC when it "bottomed" at $11. I contemplated taking a big long term position in it for many months at much higher prices.

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  75. Well, it looks like nothing for me into the close.

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  76. mark - nothing is better than the wrong thing.

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  77. my suspicion is we see a gap down in FXI and it ultimately retests the $30 area. That's why I'm short it. I think the negativity surrounding China will be around for a bit longer at least.

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  78. Negativity - I don't think much of this global negativity is going away too soon, there are way too many people who seem to be enjoying the heck out of it.

    HEK - Mark, you still like this one?

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  79. AA - I count no less than 5 gaps down in this chart, all the way from July 27th, $15.43

    Earnings response not looking particularly jovial in AH...

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  80. CP- Yes. They seem to be doing everything right in expanding the business. Might be missing a catalyst though. It's not a 'flashy' name.

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  81. Slovakia - That Iveta Radičová is one hot babe...

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  82. Steel - 'SBB Special Report: European integrated producers cut output
    Steel makers producing steel via the integrated route have cut back production sharply in the last six weeks, Steel Business Briefing notes.

    ArcelorMittal has led the way in adjusting its output to changing market conditions, idling crude production at a number of sites around Europe, including the second blast furnace at Liège, in Belgium, and the idling of the second BF at Florange, in France. In Eisenhüttenstadt, in Germany, the company had earlier idled a BF."

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  83. At least volume was low today, could indicate few people willing to sell?

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  84. I like this, hopefully it sticks and becomes convincing.

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