By the way I got your email. Sorry it's been a busy week as I'm trying to pack for yet another move. I'll get back to you later after I have a chance to look at everything.
Mark - I'd say he's got a bright future ahead of him.
TOF - ok, I think you are kidding on the mad but just in case you aren't, I subscribe to The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's trade alert program. I think he calls it Macro Millionaires. He will post an alert on his website to buy or sell something, usually options and he tells you how much, usually 5-10% of your total portfolio.
Damn... I just noticed that over the past 2 days, S&P futures made a clear triple top at 1237 or so. Now the futures are on their way to testing the recent bottom at 1210, which I expect to happen tonight.
So Greece is jockeying for higher rates, huh? Well, I'm not sure if the referendum will count for much assuming Greece is still a part of and not apart from, the EU by the time a vote takes place but from what I can tell, the vote quite likely would've been "yes".
David, How could the premium be so high on a $2.50 stock? Basically you have a chance of a 1:1.5 risk reward on a option only if the underlying goes to zero. If you got your order filled it would worry me if I owned that stock.
'CANNES, France—Europe's leaders, making it plain that they've reached the end of their patience with Greece, demanded that the beleaguered nation declare whether it wants to stay in the euro currency union—or risk going it alone in a dramatic secession.
"Does Greece want to remain part of the euro zone or not," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. "That is the question the Greek people must now answer."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the Greeks would get no more euro-zone rescue aid—"no French taxpayer money, no German taxpayer money"—until the question is answered. Without aid, Greece would be bankrupt within weeks.'
I agree there. That's why we need an EW fanatic, one that eats and breathes EW. I used to ignore his post but I was just amazed at how accurate his calls were over the last 6 months or so. Sometimes he did speak a diff language.
I had an epiphany today. I finally realized what's going on in Europe, Greece in particular. I'm pretty sure the Nigerian warlords used to employ this same tactic.
After the big rally last week, Greece went out and shorted the S&P, then they caused a ruckus to get the market to drop, then they covered their shorts and went long and said "just kiddin, we'll play ball", then they shorted again today......
That's the lesson they learned from Wall Street. We had a theory that the Nigerian warlords would first go long crude and then blow up a pipe. It's easier than hijacking a ship.
Port, That scenario sure has a ring of truth to it.
Sarkozy's comment is funny. When the greeks flip them the bird all that german and french tax money will have to go straight to the banks instead of there via Greece. That is not going to look good politically. Occupy Paris this spring and summer sounds like the EVENT of the Decade. Bread, Cheese,Wine, unwashed leftie french chicks! Whats not to like. To prepare myself, I might take up smoking. Who's in?
I think you still have to have a big ass chart of the Euro (FXE) flashing at you all day. If it goes down, buy, if it goes up, sell.
I think Second has it just right. If you have profits, don't just sit there, cash em in. You can bet there will be more BS from across the pond any minute.
"You can bet there will be more BS from across the pond any minute."
Pretty soon the BS starts up on this side of the pond though, doesn't it?
I'm hearing the holiday shopping season looks good, not sure if that's really how it's gonna happen though... SNE took a hit on their earnings, TV sales in the crapper?
Yep, higher taxes can increase cost of living but where's the plan to enable employment (perhaps by virtue of defining the unknown and removing uncertainty)?
Bought some Manulife (MFC) on the gap down this morning.
They reported a huge loss, but this was under IFRS (international accounting standards). Under US GAAP, they had a large profit.
If I value MFC under US GAAP accounting, it is actually trading close to 50% of book and at a P/E of about 5.
Business is solid and their Asian division is up 20% year over year.
Don't see any reason why this wouldn't be a double in the next year.
Nice move on NLS on no news. Thought hard about buying it yesterday when it was under $2, but I have no edge in buying before earnings, so decided to wait. Seems to want to go here.
Also the liquidation of MF Global cause the market to drop 700 pts...the greece issue was a smokescreen. Word is MF had a huge position in CSTR and had to bail on it. Hence the big drop on relatively positive news..
Another microcap I follow reported earnings today and they were excellent. The company is XWES.
Check out their report from today and the market they are in...very interesting stuff.
Also look at this solid steady improved revenues /earnings over the years: http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=XWES®ion=USA&culture=en-US
As for AUMN, there is a saying in Russian that goes something like this: "Even on my street sometimes there is a celebration." :)
So far, it hit my sell limit order at $8.34 for 500 shares purchased at $7.54 (for a $400 gain) and also at $1.50 for 5 December $7.50 calls I purchased for $0.75. I still have 5 more of such calls (also purchased at $0.75), which are a "free ride" now. I have a sell limit order for them at $2.50. I fully expect AUMN to rise above $10 in the next few days, so as to catch up with GDXJ that is trading above the previous high it made post October 4. That previous high on GDXJ corresponded to $9.26 on AUMN (on October 11).
AUMN was underperforming GDXJ for a while, but then last week I noted that it started outperforming GDXJ and that THAT was the sign that it is time to get into AUMN (that's when I bought AUMN calls). Finally, when AUMN broke below $7 intraday on Tuesday (so as to take out all stops) but then reversed and closed above $7, that was the last straw. That's the same thing that S&P did on October 4 -- an intraday break below 1100 and a close above 1100. Such a move usually preceeds a loong rally (look at what S&P has been doing for 3 weeks after that move). So maybe AUMN will be surging higher for 3 weeks straight now? :)
Now I just need TBT to join the rally -- I have 20% of my port in TBT now, which is a temporary hold for me. So I need to sell ALL of it, hopefully soon. I have sell limit orders for 200 shares of TBT starting at $20.50 and going all the way to $23.50 in increments of $0.50...
I should be really thankful to Papandreou for what he did on Monday -- he gave me the chance to close my DB puts on Tuesday (more than doubling the puts I purchased on Thursday before that) AND also load up on AUMN calls (not only 10 December $7.50 ones at $0.75, but also 10 April $2.50 calls at $2.55) AND buy more TBT AND buy TLT puts. Now the market is surging, and I have no hedges detracting the growth of my port. Thank you, Papandreou! And thank you, 2nd_ave, for covering my ass on these trades! :)
The corruption runs deep... Submitted by yaba (44 comments) on Thu, 11/03/2011 - 14:12 #99120 Papandreou's friends stand to make billions from default insurance. Papandreou sold it off after they found out the level of Greek debt... but before they announced it to the world... guess who stands to benefit from a Greek default? It is a Greek tragedy indeed...
In a nutshell, they allege that Papandreou and members of his team presided over the sale of 1.3 billion dollars worth of credit default swap contracts (CDS on Greek sovereign debt) on or around December of 2009, shortly after coming to power. The $1.3 billion worth of insurance protecting against a Greek default was bought during the spring and summer of the same year, by the Hellenic Postbank, a public banking arm of the Greek government. (In other words, public funds to be used for public insurance against default).
Were it to be cashed in today, the policy would pay out in the region of $27 billion – a substantial amount to put against spiralling debt management. http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/papandreou-...
"the policy would pay out in the region of $27 billion"
Ha, so Papandreou thinks he's ahead of the curve on this one, Greece owns the CDS's! But isn't this a bit like taking out an earthquake policy after the earthquake's already knocked your house down? Smells like Goldman style fraud to me.
What a greasy slimeball, wonder if the US FED issued the policy, LOL!
2nd_ave -- did you just WALK AWAY from your computer after having reloaded TZA this morning??? It dangerous to take your eyes off that sucker even for a minute...
TZA - I'm thinking of lowering my stop bid, would hate to miss out on that spread but it needs room to breath, too.
After reading Kyle's article, one might conclude Europe has become one big leveraged train wreck while the US has been busily off-shoring most of it's GDP.
TBT is stuck in neutral today. That may be a good thing for me, however. Since today's rally most likely continues tomorrow, then TBT can gap up above $21 tomorrow, and so my sell limit at $20.50 will get executed at a much higher price...
Guys, if you want to hedge yourself against another European scare, just buy January puts on DB and wait. Italian and Portuguese yields are creeping up, and soon Greece will seem like small peanuts...
I sold some of my CVV at $17..moved it into XWES...I've been doing the math on this company and quite frankly it looks like a no brainer 4 bagger over the next year. I'll explain later.
2nd_ave, if you hadn't sold out of your positions, would you be selling them right now? If not, then you shouldn't be doubling down on TZA now...
Have we EVER seen the market go down after a G20 meeting? They ALWAYS issue some optimistic statement about repairing everything that is going wrong...
Alright I bought 30k shs of XWES at about a $3.55 avg. I also sold all of my CVV at $16.95 to $17.05.
XWES might be the best opportunity I have seen in years...I'm actually shocked at how cheap it is. You guys really need to listen to that investor presentation link I posted. I'm going to read through the 10k more tonight to confirm my thoughts but I think this might be one of those holy shit type stocks that you find once in a blue moon. The amount of leverage in their business is ridiculous. Essentially, they provide launched an online auction marketplace called World Green Exchange...from their 10k: "On the World Green Exchange®, bidders and listers negotiate for the purchase or sale of environmental commodities such as Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), Verified Emissions Reductions (VERs), Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) and Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) allowances.
In January 2010, we launched the World DR Exchange™ to create an efficient, transparent and liquid marketplace to maximize incentive payments available to customers and provide a ready source of curtailment ready customers for the industry’s curtailment service providers (CSPs). The World DR Exchange™ creates the industry’s first online marketplace for demand response (DR), enabling customers to source DR more efficiently and effectively bringing together CSPs and energy consumers in highly-structured auction events designed to yield price transparency, heighten competition, and maximize the energy consumers’ share of demand response revenues. "
The company just went through 3 separate purchases of competitors are what seems to be very cheap prices...they basically just took their clients and are scrapping the sales people etc associated with it. Their business is very fixed cost in nature and very high margin. They generate monthly recurring revenues and just today projected revenues in 2012 to increase 40 to 60% over 2011 numbers. If you do the math on that, assuming $21 Million in revenues, you arrive at Revenues of:
$29.4 to $33.6 Million
Gross margins last quarter were 83% but lets assume they are only 80%. Gross margins would be:
$23.5 to $26.9 Million
Their total operating expenses for the past 4 years were ($14.4MM in 2010, $13.2 MM in 2009, $14.7MM in 2008, and $14.5MM in 2007) while revenues doubled in this time period. As you can see it truly is a fixed cost business. Even if I assume a pop in operating expenses of about 20% to $17 Million, I arrive at operating income of $6.5 Million to $10 Million. That's pre tax income of $0.60 to $0.93 per share based on 10.8 Million shs outstanding.
Here are their operating income numbers for the past several years: 2007 - $(8.6 Mn) 2008 - $(6.8 Mn) 2009 - $(2.3 Mn) 2010 - $(0.1 Mn)
I think investors will see 50% growth and look at the pretax earnings of $.75 or so and assign a multiple of at least 20 times earnings at some point in 2012. That would be $15/share vs current price of $3.6.
I might just load the boat on this sucker, but want to make sure I have the risks accounted for.
TOF, XWES indeed looks like a good find. Especially because its 1-year chart strongly that it bottomed out on October 4 and today it broke out to a new post-October 4 high. If the market pulls back tomorrow, then I'll buy some XWES. Thanks, TOF!
hey guys - i put a call in with IR over at XWES just to pick their brain on the operating expenses for 2012. They just purchased 3 companies in the past 2 months so the main question I have is whether or not we should expect a big ramp up in op ex as a result of these acquisitions. That will obviously have an impact on how much upside this company has.
Having said that, the trends over the past 5 years in revenue growth and shrinking losses (and now income) is very impressive and is enough to warrant an investment in the company. Their business model is very high margin and includes recurring revenues and it saves customers money...all big bonuses in my mind. I could see this become a big company over time....mkt cap right now is about $40 Million.
All right, TOF -- just to help your cause, I placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares of XWES at $3.60. If this order does not get triggered tomorrow, then the 30K shares of XWES you bought today will do very well. :)
David - Good luck man...this company is really interesting. From what I've been reading the whole industry is very fragmented and their trying to offer a solution that will essentially get rid of energy brokers and lots of middlemen. Several of the guys are ex Enron and Johnson Control guys so for the former I want to make sure I dig a little further and make sure they're not crooks.
TOF, given that many market sectors have already made a higher low and a higher high after the October 4 low, today's breakout by XWES should take it to above $4 next week just because of hedge funds exploiting correlations between various stocks.
TOF -- if AUMN gets to $15 in the next month, it will barely rise above my cost basis... And since I am not planning to start selling my shares until AUMN rises above $50, $15 in the next month will just make me more anxious about holding it for 3 years until it starts producing 8M AgEqOz annually.
So I would rather have TBT rise to $25 in the next month, which will allow me to completely close my TBT position with profit and, more importantly, reduce almost to 0 my margin debt with ETrade.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, TBT closed below its opening price. Today, it closed pretty much flat. So tomorrow it should close above its opening price, which implies that at least a couple of my sell limit orders should be hit...
In case, however, AUMN zooms to $15 tomorrow :), I decided to place staggered sell limit orders for 10 April $5 calls, which I purchased on Tuesday at $2.55: 5 calls at $6 and 5 calls at $7.50. Since I cannot book long-term capital gain on options, I might as well sell them as soon as I have some decent profit in them. As for the shares, however, I will hold them at least for one year, so as to book long-term capital gains.
David - regarding Greece getting the boot...today is the first time I think I have read European leaders openly discuss the possibility that Greece should leave. I honestly think that THAT is the reason the markets were so giddy.
I know a lot of people say it's the referendum but in my mind the back and forth is just opening people up to the possibility of them getting the boot.
Oh, here's the after hour news relating to the next smackdown:
Insight: MF Global clients face day of reckoning as margins call
NEW YORK/CHICAGO | Thu Nov 3, 2011 4:37pm EDT
(Reuters) - Call it the mother of all margin calls: Up to 50,000 former customers of bankrupt broker MF Global must find some $1 billion in additional collateral almost overnight, or be forced out of their trades.
Sold my 5 Nov 19th 125 strike SPY calls for for $3.60. I need to sell the 123 strike puts for $1.45 now to breakeven.
Also sold my 2 JAN12 SPY 124 calls for $6.76 that I bot for $5.44 last week, or the week before, don't remember. I know I swing a little twig position size compared to you guys.
My next item to sell is JNPR that I bought via shorting 23 strike puts 2 months ago I think. Had also sold some calls against it that expired. The problem with that is I tend to forget what my cost basis is. I'm just hanging on to these as my long posistion because I do think the market goes higher by Dec, just not in a very straight line.
Now what to do with my 1000 shares of SVM? THat's worked out well so far.
Mark - He's a lady's man huh?
ReplyDeleteBy the way I got your email. Sorry it's been a busy week as I'm trying to pack for yet another move. I'll get back to you later after I have a chance to look at everything.
Mark - I'd say he's got a bright future ahead of him.
ReplyDeleteTOF - ok, I think you are kidding on the mad but just in case you aren't, I subscribe to The Mad Hedge Fund Trader's trade alert program. I think he calls it Macro Millionaires. He will post an alert on his website to buy or sell something, usually options and he tells you how much, usually 5-10% of your total portfolio.
Damn... I just noticed that over the past 2 days, S&P futures made a clear triple top at 1237 or so. Now the futures are on their way to testing the recent bottom at 1210, which I expect to happen tonight.
ReplyDeleteI guess I'll be buying more TLT puts tomorrow, when it gaps up above 120...
ReplyDeleteSo Greece is jockeying for higher rates, huh? Well, I'm not sure if the referendum will count for much assuming Greece is still a part of and not apart from, the EU by the time a vote takes place but from what I can tell, the vote quite likely would've been "yes".
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteHow could the premium be so high on a $2.50 stock? Basically you have a chance of a 1:1.5 risk reward on a option only if the underlying goes to zero. If you got your order filled it would worry me if I owned that stock.
RoBear -- NLS actually closed at $1.98 today...
ReplyDeleteWow 1:1
ReplyDeleteWell, there you have it. Pretty simple...
ReplyDelete'CANNES, France—Europe's leaders, making it plain that they've reached the end of their patience with Greece, demanded that the beleaguered nation declare whether it wants to stay in the euro currency union—or risk going it alone in a dramatic secession.
"Does Greece want to remain part of the euro zone or not," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. "That is the question the Greek people must now answer."
French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the Greeks would get no more euro-zone rescue aid—"no French taxpayer money, no German taxpayer money"—until the question is answered. Without aid, Greece would be bankrupt within weeks.'
PXD - Wow!
ReplyDeleteFST - Wow!
Wonder how MOG's been doing?
LOL, Brandt got stopped out on his short the same crazy day I missed my TZA entry by $0.20 cents!
ReplyDeleteCP- You got to love the way he writes/charts. No BS/BC at all!
ReplyDeleteI don't suppose anyone here subscribes to realmoney pro do they? I'm just curious what the Elliot Wave guy (Ken Goldberg) has been saying.
ReplyDeletePort- Nope, and EW is off limits for me. WAY to easy to re-lable everything.
ReplyDeleteYep, I like Brandt.
ReplyDeleteI agree there. That's why we need an EW fanatic, one that eats and breathes EW. I used to ignore his post but I was just amazed at how accurate his calls were over the last 6 months or so. Sometimes he did speak a diff language.
ReplyDeleteWhoopsie, it's Ken GOLDBERG, not Greenberg.
ReplyDeletePort- I'll ask the Harlanator if he has time to work on it for us. I'm guessing he has other things in mind :)
ReplyDeleteI had an epiphany today. I finally realized what's going on in Europe, Greece in particular. I'm pretty sure the Nigerian warlords used to employ this same tactic.
ReplyDeleteAfter the big rally last week, Greece went out and shorted the S&P, then they caused a ruckus to get the market to drop, then they covered their shorts and went long and said "just kiddin, we'll play ball", then they shorted again today......
That's the lesson they learned from Wall Street. We had a theory that the Nigerian warlords would first go long crude and then blow up a pipe. It's easier than hijacking a ship.
Port,
ReplyDeleteThat scenario sure has a ring of truth to it.
Sarkozy's comment is funny. When the greeks flip them the bird all that german and french tax money will have to go straight to the banks instead of there via Greece. That is not going to look good politically. Occupy Paris this spring and summer sounds like the EVENT of the Decade. Bread, Cheese,Wine, unwashed leftie french chicks! Whats not to like. To prepare myself, I might take up smoking. Who's in?
RB- I'm game as long as you get them to shave! Besides, nothing cooking here anyway ;)
ReplyDeleteAt our age can we set the bar that high?
ReplyDeleteport - looks like Stockcharts has some EW work in their 'Public Chartlist' section. Here's one,
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3287600
Always a bummer when I call a gap down, and it gaps up.
ReplyDelete2nd - Way Too Many moving parts here...
ReplyDeleteShorts getting burned in today's morning comedy and tragedy, but which way does the close go?
ReplyDeleteWell, I expect the gap up will close... But not today?
ReplyDeleteTZA @ 30.44
ReplyDeleteIf I'd bought TZA at $20.20 I would've had a better than 50% gain as of last night...
ReplyDeleteTZA off @ 31.06
ReplyDeleteLooks like this morning's gap was closed...
ReplyDelete"TZA @ 30.44"
ReplyDelete"TZA off @ 31.06"
He's BACK!
Interesting opening gap reversal this AM.
ReplyDeleteAh...now the nasquack is red.
Made some good money on platinum and gold.
Smoke em if you got em.
Yeah CC I agree its nice to see the TZA man back in action. Great trade by the way...too bad you didn't hold for longer.
ReplyDeleteSeems to me right about now is wheer we discover whether or not we break the 2007/2008 correlation.
ReplyDeleteI think we do and long side is the way to play.
SCCO - See, I missed my $25 entry...
ReplyDeleteI think you still have to have a big ass chart of the Euro (FXE) flashing at you all day. If it goes down, buy, if it goes up, sell.
ReplyDeleteI think Second has it just right. If you have profits, don't just sit there, cash em in.
You can bet there will be more BS from across the pond any minute.
"You can bet there will be more BS from across the pond any minute."
ReplyDeletePretty soon the BS starts up on this side of the pond though, doesn't it?
I'm hearing the holiday shopping season looks good, not sure if that's really how it's gonna happen though... SNE took a hit on their earnings, TV sales in the crapper?
Oh, and we still have that S&P gap up over the 50SMA that needs filling, so this will be our anchor...
ReplyDelete$34.48 - An important level for silver.
ReplyDelete"Pretty soon the BS starts up on this side of the pond though, doesn't it?"
ReplyDeleteSurely. But check this out...cracks in he concrete?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/house-republicans-back-higher-tax-revenue-in-supercommittee-plan.html
NLS getting a nice lift today. I wouldn't be shocked to see it at $3 post earnings.
ReplyDeleteYep, higher taxes can increase cost of living but where's the plan to enable employment (perhaps by virtue of defining the unknown and removing uncertainty)?
ReplyDeleteRLD - Falling off a cliff, head fake or 3D officially dead at last?
ReplyDeleteTZA @ 30.41
ReplyDeleteI guess I'll have to listen to the WLL con call. Earnings seemed good. Sell off might be going into winter. Tough sledding there.
ReplyDeleteEXK - Nice earnings response.
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Doing very nicely today as well.
WLL - Hit upper trend line.
ReplyDeleteWMB - Seems like same phenomenon.
I can't speak for the earnings, etc...
FSLR - We need Sharkie's little dogie commentary.
ReplyDeleteGap down from Nov. 1st is now closed, can we continue higher from here?
ReplyDeleteI see a gap down in SPY July 27th from $133, but I don't see a gap there in S$P...?
Bought some Manulife (MFC) on the gap down this morning.
ReplyDeleteThey reported a huge loss, but this was under IFRS (international accounting standards). Under US GAAP, they had a large profit.
If I value MFC under US GAAP accounting, it is actually trading close to 50% of book and at a P/E of about 5.
Business is solid and their Asian division is up 20% year over year.
Don't see any reason why this wouldn't be a double in the next year.
Nice move on NLS on no news. Thought hard about buying it yesterday when it was under $2, but I have no edge in buying before earnings, so decided to wait. Seems to want to go here.
I think the market may be anticipating Greece getting the boot. That would do wonders for the market.
ReplyDeleteI had a good feeling yesterday's dip on OPEN would get bought. Buying calls was the move on that.
Also the liquidation of MF Global cause the market to drop 700 pts...the greece issue was a smokescreen. Word is MF had a huge position in CSTR and had to bail on it. Hence the big drop on relatively positive news..
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to David for sticking to his guns with AUMN! Nice move today.
ReplyDeleteTZA - Stop bid at today's high, I'll keep moving this down as S&P clears the 200 or I lose my nerve, whichever comes first.
ReplyDeletefrom steve grasso...
ReplyDeleteWe examine the hottest question of the day... The Lindsay Lohan Indicator: Do Stocks Really Surge When She's In Jail?
"I think the market may be anticipating Greece getting the boot. That would do wonders for the market."
ReplyDeleteC'mon, TOF -- the market is obviously cheering the fact that the referendum was called off.
Another microcap I follow reported earnings today and they were excellent. The company is XWES.
ReplyDeleteCheck out their report from today and the market they are in...very interesting stuff.
Also look at this solid steady improved revenues /earnings over the years:
http://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=XWES®ion=USA&culture=en-US
Wouldn't a Greek "default" grease the CDS 3rd party liability downhill skids?
ReplyDeletePerhaps they want the market higher (1330?) before they deal the default card?
As for AUMN, there is a saying in Russian that goes something like this: "Even on my street sometimes there is a celebration." :)
ReplyDeleteSo far, it hit my sell limit order at $8.34 for 500 shares purchased at $7.54 (for a $400 gain) and also at $1.50 for 5 December $7.50 calls I purchased for $0.75. I still have 5 more of such calls (also purchased at $0.75), which are a "free ride" now. I have a sell limit order for them at $2.50. I fully expect AUMN to rise above $10 in the next few days, so as to catch up with GDXJ that is trading above the previous high it made post October 4. That previous high on GDXJ corresponded to $9.26 on AUMN (on October 11).
AUMN was underperforming GDXJ for a while, but then last week I noted that it started outperforming GDXJ and that THAT was the sign that it is time to get into AUMN (that's when I bought AUMN calls). Finally, when AUMN broke below $7 intraday on Tuesday (so as to take out all stops) but then reversed and closed above $7, that was the last straw. That's the same thing that S&P did on October 4 -- an intraday break below 1100 and a close above 1100. Such a move usually preceeds a loong rally (look at what S&P has been doing for 3 weeks after that move). So maybe AUMN will be surging higher for 3 weeks straight now? :)
Now I just need TBT to join the rally -- I have 20% of my port in TBT now, which is a temporary hold for me. So I need to sell ALL of it, hopefully soon. I have sell limit orders for 200 shares of TBT starting at $20.50 and going all the way to $23.50 in increments of $0.50...
ReplyDeleteI should be really thankful to Papandreou for what he did on Monday -- he gave me the chance to close my DB puts on Tuesday (more than doubling the puts I purchased on Thursday before that) AND also load up on AUMN calls (not only 10 December $7.50 ones at $0.75, but also 10 April $2.50 calls at $2.55) AND buy more TBT AND buy TLT puts. Now the market is surging, and I have no hedges detracting the growth of my port. Thank you, Papandreou! And thank you, 2nd_ave, for covering my ass on these trades! :)
ReplyDelete"I should be really thankful to Papandreou"
ReplyDeleteI want to kick him in the nutz... But at least he helped you so now I won't!
Even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in a while. ;)
FWIW...
ReplyDeleteThe corruption runs deep...
Submitted by yaba (44 comments) on Thu, 11/03/2011 - 14:12 #99120
Papandreou's friends stand to make billions from default insurance. Papandreou sold it off after they found out the level of Greek debt... but before they announced it to the world... guess who stands to benefit from a Greek default?
It is a Greek tragedy indeed...
In a nutshell, they allege that Papandreou and members of his team presided over the sale of 1.3 billion dollars worth of credit default swap contracts (CDS on Greek sovereign debt) on or around December of 2009, shortly after coming to power. The $1.3 billion worth of insurance protecting against a Greek default was bought during the spring and summer of the same year, by the Hellenic Postbank, a public banking arm of the Greek government. (In other words, public funds to be used for public insurance against default).
Were it to be cashed in today, the policy would pay out in the region of $27 billion – a substantial amount to put against spiralling debt management.
http://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/papandreou-...
"the policy would pay out in the region of $27 billion"
ReplyDeleteHa, so Papandreou thinks he's ahead of the curve on this one, Greece owns the CDS's! But isn't this a bit like taking out an earthquake policy after the earthquake's already knocked your house down? Smells like Goldman style fraud to me.
What a greasy slimeball, wonder if the US FED issued the policy, LOL!
well played David.
ReplyDeletei'm listening to an investor presentation by XWES from a little while ago...you guys should check this company out. very solid business model.
http://wsw.com/webcast/wedbush18/xwes/
Hey, maybe MF global sold Greece the CDS policy?
ReplyDeleteTRX is back to it's usual tricks.
ReplyDelete----, ----, ----. I really am back. Getting ----ed up by the residents of TZA alley.
ReplyDeleteAm I getting ----ed up with the residents, or by the residents? I don't even know. Definitely a dysfunctional existence, TZA.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- did you just WALK AWAY from your computer after having reloaded TZA this morning??? It dangerous to take your eyes off that sucker even for a minute...
ReplyDeleteTZA - I'm thinking of lowering my stop bid, would hate to miss out on that spread but it needs room to breath, too.
ReplyDeleteAfter reading Kyle's article, one might conclude Europe has become one big leveraged train wreck while the US has been busily off-shoring most of it's GDP.
TBT is stuck in neutral today. That may be a good thing for me, however. Since today's rally most likely continues tomorrow, then TBT can gap up above $21 tomorrow, and so my sell limit at $20.50 will get executed at a much higher price...
ReplyDeleteNLS- That's strange action. That large bid a short?
ReplyDeleteGuys, if you want to hedge yourself against another European scare, just buy January puts on DB and wait. Italian and Portuguese yields are creeping up, and soon Greece will seem like small peanuts...
ReplyDeleteI sold some of my CVV at $17..moved it into XWES...I've been doing the math on this company and quite frankly it looks like a no brainer 4 bagger over the next year. I'll explain later.
ReplyDeleteAlright, doubling down on TZA @ 28.81.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave, if you hadn't sold out of your positions, would you be selling them right now? If not, then you shouldn't be doubling down on TZA now...
ReplyDeleteHave we EVER seen the market go down after a G20 meeting? They ALWAYS issue some optimistic statement about repairing everything that is going wrong...
"I sold some of my CVV at $17"
ReplyDeleteTraitor! :>)
Alright I bought 30k shs of XWES at about a $3.55 avg. I also sold all of my CVV at $16.95 to $17.05.
ReplyDeleteXWES might be the best opportunity I have seen in years...I'm actually shocked at how cheap it is. You guys really need to listen to that investor presentation link I posted. I'm going to read through the 10k more tonight to confirm my thoughts but I think this might be one of those holy shit type stocks that you find once in a blue moon. The amount of leverage in their business is ridiculous. Essentially, they provide launched an online auction marketplace called World Green Exchange...from their 10k: "On the World Green Exchange®, bidders and listers negotiate for the purchase or sale of environmental commodities such as Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), Verified Emissions Reductions (VERs), Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) and Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) allowances.
In January 2010, we launched the World DR Exchange™ to create an efficient, transparent and liquid marketplace to maximize incentive payments available to customers and provide a ready source of curtailment ready customers for the industry’s curtailment service providers (CSPs). The World DR Exchange™ creates the industry’s first online marketplace for demand response (DR), enabling customers to source DR more efficiently and effectively bringing together CSPs and energy consumers in highly-structured auction events designed to yield price transparency, heighten competition, and maximize the energy consumers’ share of demand response revenues. "
The company just went through 3 separate purchases of competitors are what seems to be very cheap prices...they basically just took their clients and are scrapping the sales people etc associated with it. Their business is very fixed cost in nature and very high margin. They generate monthly recurring revenues and just today projected revenues in 2012 to increase 40 to 60% over 2011 numbers. If you do the math on that, assuming $21 Million in revenues, you arrive at Revenues of:
$29.4 to $33.6 Million
Gross margins last quarter were 83% but lets assume they are only 80%. Gross margins would be:
$23.5 to $26.9 Million
Their total operating expenses for the past 4 years were ($14.4MM in 2010, $13.2 MM in 2009, $14.7MM in 2008, and $14.5MM in 2007) while revenues doubled in this time period. As you can see it truly is a fixed cost business. Even if I assume a pop in operating expenses of about 20% to $17 Million, I arrive at operating income of $6.5 Million to $10 Million. That's pre tax income of $0.60 to $0.93 per share based on 10.8 Million shs outstanding.
Here are their operating income numbers for the past several years:
2007 - $(8.6 Mn)
2008 - $(6.8 Mn)
2009 - $(2.3 Mn)
2010 - $(0.1 Mn)
I think investors will see 50% growth and look at the pretax earnings of $.75 or so and assign a multiple of at least 20 times earnings at some point in 2012. That would be $15/share vs current price of $3.6.
I might just load the boat on this sucker, but want to make sure I have the risks accounted for.
TRID - Oops, earnings must've sucked the big high hard one!
ReplyDeleteTOF, XWES indeed looks like a good find. Especially because its 1-year chart strongly that it bottomed out on October 4 and today it broke out to a new post-October 4 high. If the market pulls back tomorrow, then I'll buy some XWES. Thanks, TOF!
ReplyDeletehey guys - i put a call in with IR over at XWES just to pick their brain on the operating expenses for 2012. They just purchased 3 companies in the past 2 months so the main question I have is whether or not we should expect a big ramp up in op ex as a result of these acquisitions. That will obviously have an impact on how much upside this company has.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, the trends over the past 5 years in revenue growth and shrinking losses (and now income) is very impressive and is enough to warrant an investment in the company. Their business model is very high margin and includes recurring revenues and it saves customers money...all big bonuses in my mind. I could see this become a big company over time....mkt cap right now is about $40 Million.
All right, TOF -- just to help your cause, I placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares of XWES at $3.60. If this order does not get triggered tomorrow, then the 30K shares of XWES you bought today will do very well. :)
ReplyDeleteDavid - Good luck man...this company is really interesting. From what I've been reading the whole industry is very fragmented and their trying to offer a solution that will essentially get rid of energy brokers and lots of middlemen. Several of the guys are ex Enron and Johnson Control guys so for the former I want to make sure I dig a little further and make sure they're not crooks.
ReplyDeleteTOF, given that many market sectors have already made a higher low and a higher high after the October 4 low, today's breakout by XWES should take it to above $4 next week just because of hedge funds exploiting correlations between various stocks.
ReplyDeleteHave they arrested Papandreou yet? Just wondering... I'm sure there's some kind of announcement or rumor they front-ran for release in after hours...
ReplyDeleteDavid - I hope for your sake that AUMN gets to $15 in the next month. that would be an awesome return.
ReplyDeleteTOF -- if AUMN gets to $15 in the next month, it will barely rise above my cost basis... And since I am not planning to start selling my shares until AUMN rises above $50, $15 in the next month will just make me more anxious about holding it for 3 years until it starts producing 8M AgEqOz annually.
ReplyDeleteSo I would rather have TBT rise to $25 in the next month, which will allow me to completely close my TBT position with profit and, more importantly, reduce almost to 0 my margin debt with ETrade.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, TBT closed below its opening price. Today, it closed pretty much flat. So tomorrow it should close above its opening price, which implies that at least a couple of my sell limit orders should be hit...
ReplyDeleteIn case, however, AUMN zooms to $15 tomorrow :), I decided to place staggered sell limit orders for 10 April $5 calls, which I purchased on Tuesday at $2.55: 5 calls at $6 and 5 calls at $7.50. Since I cannot book long-term capital gain on options, I might as well sell them as soon as I have some decent profit in them. As for the shares, however, I will hold them at least for one year, so as to book long-term capital gains.
ReplyDeleteDavid - regarding Greece getting the boot...today is the first time I think I have read European leaders openly discuss the possibility that Greece should leave. I honestly think that THAT is the reason the markets were so giddy.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Greek-PM-ready-to-go-dump-rb-146028151.html?x=0
I know a lot of people say it's the referendum but in my mind the back and forth is just opening people up to the possibility of them getting the boot.
Oh, here's the after hour news relating to the next smackdown:
ReplyDeleteInsight: MF Global clients face day of reckoning as margins call
NEW YORK/CHICAGO | Thu Nov 3, 2011 4:37pm EDT
(Reuters) - Call it the mother of all margin calls: Up to 50,000 former customers of bankrupt broker MF Global must find some $1 billion in additional collateral almost overnight, or be forced out of their trades.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/us-mfglobal-margin-idUSTRE7A27Y020111103
Sold my 5 Nov 19th 125 strike SPY calls for for $3.60. I need to sell the 123 strike puts for $1.45 now to breakeven.
ReplyDeleteAlso sold my 2 JAN12 SPY 124 calls for $6.76 that I bot for $5.44 last week, or the week before, don't remember. I know I swing a little twig position size compared to you guys.
My next item to sell is JNPR that I bought via shorting 23 strike puts 2 months ago I think. Had also sold some calls against it that expired. The problem with that is I tend to forget what my cost basis is. I'm just hanging on to these as my long posistion because I do think the market goes higher by Dec, just not in a very straight line.
Now what to do with my 1000 shares of SVM? THat's worked out well so far.
Man CP, that sux. That really pisses me off too. We use a clearing broker and it already seems like a racket to me.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete