http://www.evernote.com/evernote/
Check out Evernote. I was sitting in a waiting room at the tire shop last week, picked up a copy of 'Inc.,' and came across a story about the founder of Evernote. I think you may find the concept interesting, and the service valuable. A basic no-frills account appears to be available at no charge. I haven't had time to check it out.
As I recall, the idea is memory enhancement using software that mimics the way the human brain remembers things. Something like that.
Can someone explain to me the 'Status: Bull confirmed on 07-Dec-2011' annotation to this P&F chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$BPNYA,P&pref=G
evening folks,
ReplyDeleteI 2nd 2nd's intro on the previous opening post. I've talked to the wife about paying off our cracker box house but we will probably buy a bigger box next year. Not a whole lot bigger. Hopefully we'll just upgrade from 2000 sq ft to about 2500 sq ft. I'm raising a toddler and facing the golden years at the same time so we don't want to get carried away. I would like to be selective though because I think my primary residence will be a nice gift for the kids to inherit.
no trades today, probably none tomorrow. I just don't have much interest and I think having more PATIENCE will help my returns.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-money-moves-one-china-bubble-buster-is-making-2011-12-27?pagenumber=1
ReplyDeleteHold on a second, port. If you're going to second one of 2nd's posts second-hand on a succeeding post during the evening hours, the least you can do is reference the comment. After all, the average TT reader has his BAC up against the wall around this time of day.
ReplyDeleteBB- I had an 'interesting' conversation with a guy I've worked with for 20 years. He's in the door hardware side of things. Their Co. has 4 locations and are closing the local one. He's been offered a job in another store about 50 miles away. Both he and his top sales person are trying to do short sales on their homes. Bought about 280K and worth about 125K right now. We were talking about how hard it's been the last few years, and tried to guess when we might come out of this. His comment was one I've brought up here with little feedback.
ReplyDeleteHe thinks it will take an entire generation to get out of this. Based on peoples spending habits having been forever changed...And I agree, as mine certainly has.
So my question is, how would you argue against that?
2nd- Thanks. I wasn't going to let him get away with that either.
ReplyDeleteMark It is hard to see a nationwide construction phase happening anytime soon. Home as an investment/ retirement vehicle has been a myth to many. What happens when interest rates rise? Will that not cap home values?
ReplyDeleteDo your buddies realize that if they complete the short sale they will be on the hook to uncle sam for capitol gains. If they get 150 Gs forgiven that has to be listed as capital gains. I think a foreclosure makes more since as a coldblooded business decision.
RB- I thought there was a temp law that dealt with the cap gains in these issues, but I'll sure as hell let them know. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteI just returned from a meeting at work and saw that I did get stopped out of my GDXJ position today, just like I predicted yesterday. The sad part about it is that I held GDXJ puts as hedges last week but closed them on Thursday...
ReplyDeleteIt looks like the TED spread data I was looking at this morning was from yesterday, and today we got another drop in the TED spread, which is now 1.5bp down from its high of 58bp. If we get another drop tomorrow, then I say we have a change in the trend and we are out of the woods.
ReplyDelete$BPNYSA
ReplyDeleteI have no idea what that means other than the P&F was bullish as of 12/7.
Now that we've had a rally that got us to even for 2011 I suspect to see a sell off within three days of 2012 when those positions would settle leaving the profits on traders books for 2011. Window dressing on and then off.
Whenever I feel like I've done well and I should hold I always look overhead for the sole of a large shoe (Vibram?), but that's just me.
A Vibram boot is a good way to put it. Every time, and I mean every freaking time, I've said to myself 'It's been a great run,' AND I opt to continue trading, I've gotten stomped.
ReplyDeletePigs get killed, as they say.
ReplyDeleteMark your right if the home was their primary Residence and not a refi.
ReplyDeleteRB, when I bought the house I'm in now interest rates were over 9% and a lot of sellers were carrying their own paper. I have a friend in the RE line and he recently sold a piece of raw property with a decent down payment and 7% interest on the balance. Not bad work if you can get it. Screw the banks. If they keep this up no one will need them.
ReplyDeleteMark, They should definitely talk to their accountants. It might be better to drop the keys in an envelope and walk. It will all be over in seven years but the crying by the bank.
2nd- Over staying your welcome...Yep, same here. Every freaking time.
ReplyDeleteSHLD - 320,000 employees and 3600 stores, ~90/store I guess that includes K-Mart and Sears store employee head count?
ReplyDeleteSo we're talking about maybe 1200 direct employees, right?
"His comment was one I've brought up here with little feedback."
ReplyDeleteWhat, once or maybe twice?
He thinks it will take an entire generation to get out of this.
Yeah, probably at least a decade if ever. It all depends on emerging market growth, I think, and on if the dollar is valued fairly. Already, it seems the Yen isn't valued fairly for some reason, I guess Japan will have to force the issue somehow, I'm just not sure how they can go about doing that other than defaulting on their debt, or printing like mad men. Personally, I think printing has it's virtues, and I condone it. In fact, I think printing, if done correctly, is the best way out for countries that have amassed unsustainable debt levels. The problem so far it seems is that none of the money printed has really made it into the economy, it's only been used to increase public debt for repayment another day, which only benefits banks. The printing should go directly towards paying off the debt.
CP- Do you think investors are considering how many 'me's' there are out there? FWIW, Patricia, of course is not a 'me'.
ReplyDeleteA lot of that printed money has been soaked up by the bank losses. That's like a black hole. I think it would have been much better to give it to the people instead of the banks or to the banks on behalf of the people.
ReplyDeleteAfterall, it was going to go there anyway. Screw the moral hazard argument, it's moral hazard anyway you do it, but the economy would have recovered much faster if everyone was deleveraged (or for those without debt/savers, provided an offset for their currency loss)all at once.
This incremental slow bleed is what drains confidence. Public debt for actual productive infrastructure would then have been appropriate and a better kind of debt and it would have cost less and with private debt eliminated would have been affordable via taxation from employment. So much for the geniuses at the Fed.
It's interesting how people think of the current situation. The debt in Europe for example is more private than public debt, yet all we hear about is government debt. It seems to be a common meme here too.
And I agree with CP. All the countries should get together and forgive the debt they can and devalue/print to eliminate the rest.
ReplyDeletethe problem is, of course, that some won't give up on getting paid and they fail to see the downside to their own economies by holding out. For example, who is going to buy expensive German cars if they are tied up paying debt? You can see why in the past there were wars waged over this kind of thing.
Then again I just got of the phone with a friend who's daughter plays for the same club as my girls..I'm doing a 300K remodel for them and just found out they leave for Maui for 3 weeks with 3 young kids in 5 days...What the hell do I know.
ReplyDeleteDo they have a club you can join, or are they interested in adopting a contractor?
ReplyDeleteMark, I don't understand what a "me" is, you're referring to. My concern is that it appears banks are being compensated for their losses at the expense of increasing the public debt.
ReplyDeleteCP- Sorry, me is me. Mark. This whole mess has totally changed the way I think about money/savings/debit..etc. I have a singular mind to NEVER be in any debit again. I consider myself crazy lucky to have been able to build/work through thus whole mess, but seriously, my family could be in the same situations an my hardware friend.
ReplyDeleteCC- I asked. I'm not cute enough..but they are willing to consider Haralan :)
Mark - There's a big difference in my mind between leveraging debt and being unsustainably in debt. It's the responsibility of the lender to make sure his debtor is capable of repaying. Banks should be held responsible, their losses shouldn't be socialized.
ReplyDeleteI agree with CP, but since we don't seem to live in a fair society....yet, I choose to live much like Mark. I do have some debt, but nothing out of whack or that I can't pay off if I need or choose to. The BASTARDS at Chase gave me the use of their(?) MY/OUR tarp money WE gave them for .05% for FREE and I decided since i had the cash to pay it back that I would use it while I used my own money to make more money, which only seemed fair, since it was OUR/MY money to begin with. But the only reason they even offered me my own money for free was because I have a flawless FICO score and I wasn't in any debt throughout this whole debacle de jour. I mean I used their money ST for 30 days but always paid it off each month. Of course they kept raising my credit limit(s) on all sorts of cards to the point I considered running the things to the max on precious metals and then skipping out to central America, but you know....if you have a low to mid 800 FICO score it's because you aren't the type that skips town on a hundred grand plus of debt. Not that they don't deserve it....
ReplyDeleteSo credit is short term and for making cash, but it isn't for longer than 18 mos in this case.
Their money was useful for building my new deck and a few new kitchen appliances, but that is the limit of my risk taking in this iffy semi-depression. Mark likely has a contractor line of credit that provides some discount he can make pay with his clients or to squeeze into a bid, but I think everyone should STARVE the beast and finance in the customer to customer free market outside of banks. Let them eat cake.
If we thought like a banker we should leverage to the hilt right here. 30 year notes. Put it in a bank and then buy t notes when they are 7.5%. in a couple years. Reverse engineer 2nds mortgage plan.
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your post.
There is a lot of change going on in the world right now and you have winners and losers. It's crappy for your friend that he lost his job and a lot of money on his house. The problem really is that the whole home-building industry got overbuilt the last decade and people who got into that are now getting hurt. I think nowadays, more than ever, you have to manage your career, watch for trends and stay ahead of the game. It's hard to do, but I think we all have to do that now.
I would think when a Sears shuts down, if the location is reasonable, it will be taken over by a Wal-mart / Target / Macy's who will hire people to fix up the store and hire new workers to sell there. They may be paid less than the previous Sears employees, but that is part of the creative destruction process and it is better to have lower paid, value creating jobs than higher paid value destroying ones = just look at the auto industry, tough transition for them as well, but that least the business is now sustainable.
The thing that is not really fair is that the government or banks or people in general enabled this real estate bubble and all the houses in your friend's area were probably $280, so they didn't really have much choice on what they paid and now everyone is getting screwed. It is easy to say that he should have waited to buy until now, but that is not very realistic (not if you have a wife like mine).
But there is a lot of good going on in the economy and it is starting to turn. Consumer Confidence up, PMI up, unemployment starting to come down, IT industry doing really well, etc.
Hopefully it will translate into more jobs in your area for people like your friend.
SDOW - Buy stop bid at $26.70
ReplyDeleteI believe today will be the last selloff before we power higher. We need one last one to give the bulls a scare.
ReplyDeleteWhy is the dollar bolting, something blow up in Euroland?
ReplyDeleteEuro - This thing took a big dump...
ReplyDeleteZSL - This thing's flying, maybe I should bid on it instead of SDOW?
ReplyDelete$INDU:$GOLD just broke up through resistance.
Careful TOF. Your starting to sound like your buy Kaas...
ReplyDelete"I expect one quick but short lived swoosh lower this week, as I have been writing on RealMoneyPRO."
CP- Did you get filled?
ReplyDeleteBB- Thanks buddy. Let's hope your right.
ReplyDeleteOne of MCP's biggest bulls has flipped. Looks a little over done..but their in a mood to sell today.
ReplyDeletePeople don't trade to scare people, they trade to either buy on weakness or sell into strength.
ReplyDeleteWe had a good rally into the end of the year and now traders are booking profits off a flat to down year. That should be expected after a decent run up.
Technically we ran up to the 200 DMA and that LT overhead and at the same time we get Euro weakness this AM so dollar is up, stocks, oil, etc. down.
This isn't bull/bear stuff, it just is the market being the market.
Add the holiday week and thin trading.
MCP - Interesting, the day after China announces reduced RE exports.
ReplyDeleteMDW coming back into the buy zone.
ReplyDeleteSDOW - Nowhere near a fill, that trade is based on $INDU:$GOLD failing resistance around 7.75
ReplyDeleteSLW - Looks headed to $25ish
ReplyDeleteI guess there are plenty of PM bulls upset this morning. My question to them is if they manipulated PM's up this past year?
$INDU - RSI(7) is now back under 70, at 60.3
ReplyDeleteHL is interesting here too.
ReplyDeleteUXG - Pretty close to a double bottom (if that's how it plays out, there's just no telling for sure).
ReplyDeleteUXG vs HL - I prefer the UXG chart, it has a nice open gap down at $5.30ish
ReplyDeleteSome think UXG is headed to ~$0.70...
MITK looking ugly. Gonna take a little more strength to get above the 200 DMA.
ReplyDeleteAmazing they now have almost 3 Million shares short. Insiders + institutions own over 50% of shares which means the float is about 14 Million. That equates to a short interest of 20%.
Short interest has risen as the stock has fallen, which I think is a positive sign if you believe in the company. If the stock should fall below the $7 recent support area or the really strong $6.5 area, I think it will trap a lot of people and do an about face.
HL- Guess not. Just ticked a new low.
ReplyDeleteScrew this bidding 3K HL @ 5.04.
ReplyDeleteHere's an interesting chart I'm pondering lately:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.commodityonline.com/uploads/z13.JPG
Somebody help me! (Stayin' Alive)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=7&ved=0CE0QtwIwBg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DmJM5cCWZLb0&ei=n2f7TpOkM8W30AHYtMGeAg&usg=AFQjCNFUFHIc-vZdpAKnClXtI_3t6phpaQ&sig2=oJHu1V_S7LQOm4u9TDTH-g
Now that's funny!!! Love the oxygen tank.
ReplyDeleteI guess the only good thing about today is my cash pile.
mark - my track record on individual stocks hasn't been so hot lately but i think my "feel" on the market has been good. with that, i think today seems like a bear trap setup. maybe we get a little bit lower but i think we're nearing the end of the debacle in europe...and it clearly hasn't had an impact on our economy, which is beginning to gain strength. I still think FAS/BGU will do well in 2012.
ReplyDeleteBidding 4K MITK @ 7.11. I originally had in orders at 7.00 but with the high % of cash I have and this lame low volume sell of just seems to me an opportunity.
ReplyDeleteTOF- That's ridiculous. Your the best stock picker I know. Now go find another one!!
Do you guys know where you can find a list of all the ECN's/brokers?..Like UBSS is UBS.
ReplyDeleteBidding 1,700 SSO @ 45.80.
ReplyDeleteSanta Claus rally my ass... SLV is at a 1-year low...
ReplyDeleteCanceled...Damn, looks like I missed it. And if it goes back down again, I don't think it will hold.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree with TOF (for now, unless there's something more going on than meets the eye) concerning the bear trap, it's just too odd that the $USD took off 15 minutes before open this morning.
ReplyDeleteI feel good:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB0QtwIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DycfxDaNgZhw&ei=K2_7TsOpAaP00gGnnYGsAg&usg=AFQjCNEk_q97v747DxyaAD5KFOwdrpKdpw&sig2=bqmAwKST0j6aU6IJXkwfmA
The closing low for SLV during the January 2011 dip was $26.23, reached on January 25. Right now SLV is trading at $26.24. Do we make a double bottom here?
ReplyDeleteStrangely enough, AUMN is outperforming both SLV and GDXJ today. Even more interesting, GDXJ is outperforming SLV! This means that the stock traders feel that the drop in SLV is overdone and will be reversed in the near future...
ReplyDeleteJust bought 5 April $26 calls on SLV for $2.65 each...
ReplyDeleteSLV dropped as low as $26.10 in the last few minutes, thus violating the January 2011 low. Who is left holding silver at this point? Only stubborn long-term investors, who will not be shaken out at any price...
ReplyDelete"Last week, the ECB lent 523 banks a record 489 billion euros for three years to keep credit flowing to the 17-nation euro zone during the sovereign debt crisis. The money was lent at a benchmark rate of 1 percent. Banks are depositing excess cash back with the ECB at the overnight rate of 0.25 percent, incurring a loss rather than lending it for more elsewhere."
ReplyDeleteThat's weird. Why would somebody borrow at 1% in the first place if their intention was to deposit it back at 0.25%???
Ah, I know -- they borrowed it "just in case," because the next borrowing opportunity will not come until Feb 29. For now, however, they do not see good uses for that money, and they are just keeping it safe...
ReplyDeleteGold needs to hold $1550...
ReplyDeletePredictions from Bruce Krasting about 2012:
ReplyDeletehttp://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/12/2012-things-that-will-happen.html
Well, at least I bought my SLV calls today BELOW the lowest asking price observed today... There is still a chance that it all ends well (for my PM-related investments), if today was THE low in SLV.
ReplyDeleteWell, SLV closed at $26.27, above the January 25 close of $26.23 -- is it encouraging or what? :)
ReplyDeleteSLV was going up pretty much in a straight line between October 2008 and QE2. If we connect the lows of that rising channel and extrapolate to the present, then we'll get something around $24. So I guess even if SLV drops to $24 (but not too much below it), then it will simply return to its long-term trend. It would be a case of an amazingly large departure from the trend and an amazing return back to it, but overall a departure from the long-term trend is almost always followed by a return back to it, so there would be nothing unexpected here...
ReplyDeleteGLD had a nice tight upward sloping channel between mid-2005 and mid-2007. Then it took off like crazy in 2H 2007 and afterwards dropped BELOW the lower trendline in 2H 2008. Did it stop the trend? No. I think the current spike up above the trend line in August 2011 and today's drop below the trend line will not stop the trend either. If anything, it will shake out the non-believers and will start another LONG leg up, just like the one started in 2H 2008.
ReplyDeleteDV - Anyone like this one? I watched the other night an interview of the Apple product adviser guru, don't recall his name but he's one of the guys behind the product development curtain at AAPL. He was saying that social media will be big going forward, and mentioned his work with DV to help develop an "excellent" educational program...
ReplyDeleteDV- Holly cow. that's about the only space more crazy than jr. miners.
ReplyDeletedudes - that DMND looks very interesting at these levels. anyone have any insight to share? all I know is i love all of their brands.
ReplyDeleteThe primary evil in today's markets are dishonest rock excavators who have no debt, and produce useless products of no intrinsic value:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/whistleblower-documents-illuminate-case-against-151014413.html
DMND - Good point, something happened recently that caused them to get brutalized, like they had some unanticipated charges or something, I forget the detail.... Almonds man, I love 'em and they're darn near impossible to find sometimes.
ReplyDeleteYeah, something about payments to growers and a deal to buy something fell through that was based on that.
ReplyDeleteYou guys don't suppose Bernanke listens to Cramer's show on CNBC, do you?
ReplyDeleteyeah DMND's Kettle Chips and the Emerald Almonds and mixed nuts are popular in my family.
ReplyDeletethe SEC is investigating them regarding the acctg treatment of payments to farmers, then I think the CEO committed suicide, and then I believe the deal they signed to buy Pringles fell through.
it's very interesting at this price. only issue i have is they have excessive debt and little cash. cash flow is good but their balance sheet is not. and the deal to buy pringles seems a bit too much for them to swallow. so i'd say 5 stars on valuation and demand for their products and 1 star on financials and management. i think demand for their products wins out.
actually the Pringles deal is still out there but there are serious doubts about it.
ReplyDeleteJerrome Powell of Carlyle group nominated for a seat on the Federal Reserve Board?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-28/obama-plans-nominations-of-powell-stein-for-fed-board.html
Cool blog piece on MITK:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mobilepaymentstoday.com/blog/7155/Picture-Perfect-processing-images-in-Generation-M
SLV is making a new low after hours... When will I learn to wait for the RIGHT side of the V before buying call options???
ReplyDeleteWow, that was due to $USD jumping to from 80.45 to 80.70 in a blink of an eye! I thought that the $USD market is so huge that even during holidays there are a few trillion dollars turning over every day, so why such a jump in $USD???
ReplyDeleteDespite that jump in $USD, gold did not make a new low after hours, which is encouraging...
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteWhen there is these jumps there may be a upcoming news event that people are front running. In addition USD is near a breakout.Why is TLT still at a lofty level. In fact TLT has a nice C+H pattern. If it were a small cap stock I would anticipate a major breakout. For the past year TlT and gold were blood brothers, but if USD$ stays strong there could be a divergence.
http://www.kegerator.com/Krups-Beertender-Mini-Kegerator-B100/B100,default,pd.html?mtcpromotion=cj
ReplyDeleteWent to my friends house last night for dinner and he had this mini kegerator. Had a Newcastle....the taste was excellent!
PM Selloff - Well, it could be a mass exodus from COMEX trading in the wake of MF Global, not many buyers, only sellers?
ReplyDeleteSomehow I think there's more to it than that, like advance preparation for tomorrow's Italian debt auction?
Why not just blame it on a few bad raw oysters?
ReplyDeleteCP- OK, but that's a double edge sword. What's the rate tomorrow and how will that impact the POG?
ReplyDeleteMark - I expect if nobody shows up to buy Italian debt tomorrow, the dollar will shoot up and of course that would be negative for gold.
ReplyDelete"Somehow I think there's more to it than that, like advance preparation for tomorrow's Italian debt auction?"
ReplyDeleteThat's probably the event that people are frontrunning today...
So let's just say that tomorrow's successful Italian debt auction should give us a nice lift across the board?
ReplyDeleteYes, but front running a successful Italiano debt auction, would be dollar positive?
ReplyDeleteCP- I thought today's auction went well..them blamo!
ReplyDeleteI don't know man.
new post
ReplyDeleteThe blamo part came when nervous nellies lost their nerve?
ReplyDeleteI didn't like much of what I saw today, which looked like a rush to safety...