Thursday, December 29, 2011
12/30/11 Patience
I made pocket change opening a small position in SLW this morning, closing after just 9 minutes (a +1% gain in 9 minutes). What's notable is the close-to-100% conviction I had that the trade would pay off.
Obviously, I left a lot of money on the table, as the stock closed another 5% higher.
I think patience pays off. A clear entry into the metals will present itself at some point. As will a clear entry into the SPX. In the meantime, the psychic benefits of holding cash should not be underestimated.
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Sorry guys- I still think we sell off hard soon.
ReplyDeleteI was surprised to find 21st Amendment 'Back in Black' IPA on the shelves this afternoon at Trader Joe's- so I picked up a 6-pack. My only complaint is they're only available in cans.
ReplyDeleteI think all this week is just noise because of low volume. Real trading starts 1/3/12. I think a gap and go that could finally break resistance is likely. I am going to sit on my hands. i don't mind missing 5% just want to wait for a confirmed trend. With Gold and silver I have no clue. They trade in their own world with too many moving parts. Give me stamps.com and a oilier with one operating well:).
ReplyDeleteOne added benefit to having the financial markets as one's 'hobby' or avocation has to be the invaluable lessons learned re human nature. Money is the one thing people take seriously- no one trades for the hell of it.
ReplyDeleterb- I think the only thing ready to 'gap and go' is gold and silver.
ReplyDeleteThere's an technical indicator that I kind of put together on my own...combines support levels with MACD and RSI...that shows some interesting buys on stocks we all follow:
ReplyDeleteBAC
TZOO
HIG
JPM
XLF
FAS
Not yet, but almost buys:
MITK
DMND
Borderline Buy; will become a buy if stock moves up soon; wait for confirmation:
REDF, BTU, AUMN
Not Yet/ Actually most likely a sell still:
SLW, MDW
The best looking setups based on this indicator would be:
ReplyDelete*JPM, XLF, FAS, TZOO, OPEN right now
*AUMN, REDF, BTU on a move up...a 5% move up should do the trick.
tof- I tend to agree re the banks. For instance, how much more negative can it get for BAC? Of course, I could have made that statement a zillion times in the past year.
ReplyDelete2nd = this is more a technical setup that i use...i don't really like technicals that much but i do pay attention to moving averages and support levels and RSI readings. BAC still needs to confirm this with a move higher but JPM has already confirmed a buy. this is a longer term indicator so it won't catch the tops or bottoms but it will catch nice moves from time to time.
ReplyDeleteMET is another buy
ReplyDeleteWhen I look at the GLD and SLV charts, I see a lot of people who are in at higher prices and who would be looking to sell on a bounce.
ReplyDeleteFrom a relative valuation perspective (because it is so hard to say what a commodity is really worth), Gold and Silver are still about 60% above most commodities (Copper, Nickel, Oil, Grains, Platinum) on a 2-year chart and over 100% above on a 4 year chart , so still relatively expensive.
I still think a lot of momentum type buyers are in the PM's as are those looking for safety and they should be shorted on strength. I made some money shorting gold over $1,800, and was looking for a retest to GLD $175 to short again, but it never got there and they dropped too fast.
Kass saying a 3-day rally is typical at after a reversal like today after a 3-month downtrend, so perhaps that will be the time.
so if i bought a $450,000 house and paid it off, my estimated taxes and insurance would be $11,388/yr. So if I had a dividend portfolio paying an average 3.5% annual dividend, I'd have to have $325,371 invested in divy stocks. That seems like a lot to have sitting there for passive income to pay the bills. We're not even talking about living expenses yet.
ReplyDeleteOn a $250,000 house, it goes down to $180,685 invested at 3.5%.
Of course that's for Houston Independent School District.
ReplyDeleteWhat about the decay problem with FAS? IS this still an issue or are you looking for a short term hold?
ReplyDeleteMET had good news this week - sold their bank to GE, so can get out from under the Fed and start returning cash to shareholders. Should see a good dividend increase and buyback in the next 6 months.
GE is another that seems to be turning. The industrial side is good and now GE Capital appears to be turning the corner and they look to be doing some serious dividend increases.
Port,
ReplyDeletethat's assuming a flat market. If you also include 6.5% capital appreciation, you get a total return of 10%, you'd only need $113,880.
I think it may be a good sign that expectation from the market are so low. Means it will be easier to move upwards.
And by the way - you have really high property taxes!
ReplyDeletewe do. I think our sales tax is around 8.25% but we don't have a state income tax, YET.
ReplyDeletehttp://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=1105&catid=15
ReplyDeleteI agree with Kass. We could easily see SPX 1500+ the second half of 2012.
Long, busy day. Oh, yeah, and the price action in MITK SUCKED!!!
ReplyDelete2nd- Could we see MITK, like maybe 10? Just asking.
ReplyDeleteThat would be about the same property/sales tax/insurance we pay here... AND income tax.
ReplyDeleteBTX..Looks like JB got a good entry. What price and how many shares Ding Dong?
ReplyDeleteWhy is Chavez surprised we gave him cancer? He's like the 4th one. Guy clearly can't take a hint.
ReplyDelete12/30/2011
ReplyDelete"German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says eurozone problems will be solved in 2012
Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says he's confident that Europe's politicians will manage to stabilize the eurozone in 2012 and keep the continent's common currency together. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8984061/German-finance-minister-Wolfgang-Schaeuble-says-eurozone-problems-will-be-solved-in-2012.html
Texas - Yes, property taxes are high, in general, b/c there's no state income tax. This tends to spread the public burden somewhat differently than other states.
ReplyDeleteThere are also no real estate sales taxes, which can becomes a bizarre problem when locating to another state, b/c the state you're relocating to will probably attempt to collect that fee.
NBG - Got Balls?
ReplyDeleteCCH - Coca Cola Greece?
ReplyDeleteGMO - Under $3 again, usually doesn't last long...
ReplyDeleteFSG - ???
ReplyDeleteSVM - Gaped up from $6.24 CRAP!
ReplyDeleteThey keep trying to demoralize the longs on MITK but the series of higher lows over the past 2 years remains intact...for now...
ReplyDeleteMITK - Agreed, there's always the obligatory and unrelenting demoralization period, such an incredible phenomenon to witness. Makes no sense to me except that it must somehow be profitable...
ReplyDeleteHFT, fine tuned and hard at work?
What a bummer. Did you guys see Art Cashins hands? That will be played over and over again on the internet.
ReplyDeleteSelling the HL @ 5.30 I bought at 5.04. Take the grand for the weekend.
ReplyDeleteArt Cashin - Did someone break all his fingers?
ReplyDeleteNah...His hands are just shaking really bad. Felt sorry for him.
ReplyDeleteThat's what happens when you're a booze hound.
ReplyDeleteFor those of you interested in MITK, check this out:
http://www.slideshare.net/pmcadam/mobile-banking-payments-consumer-behavior-in-2011
Go to page 24. Look at those stats:
Only 7% of users had access to mobile remote deposit. Of those 59% used it. That's staggering when you considering that BAC and C and WFC will be on board within 6 months and they make up over 50% of checking accounts in the US.
Booze hounds often have red noses as well. Tis the season?
ReplyDeleteI'm really tempted to just load the boat on JPM/BAC.
ReplyDeleteCatch you guys later.
ReplyDeleteSo what do we see here? $USD is down nicely, silver and gold are up (just like 2nd_ave said -- they were the only asset classes ready to gap and go), AUMN is up 4% for now (this can change in a second, but so far it hasn't :), and SVM...
ReplyDeleteSVM spiked above $6.50, sucked in all eager longs, then dropped down to shake out the weak ones. I think now is the time to enter it. So I just bought 10 March $7 calls on it at $0.53 each.
If AUMN ends the day right here, at 5.5% gain, I will be a happy camper for the New Year. :)
ReplyDeleteGold has been under the 200 day for more than two weeks now, but:
ReplyDelete"Bespoke Investment Group said that the six times gold closed below its 200 day moving average since 1976, gold has risen on average almost half a percent in the next week, 1.5% in the next month, almost 5% in the next three months and 9% in the next 6 months and over 21% in the next year. "
And I saw this:
"Lower gold prices are not deterring Japanese investors from selling off their gold due to an impending bullion tax law."
David - Another 5% up and AUMN should trigger a longer term buy signal for me.
ReplyDeleteAsset Returns in 2011:
ReplyDeletehttp://static8.businessinsider.com/image/4efdd728ecad04765200001d-616-475/chart.png
I forgot to mention another reason for optimism now: as of right now, the TED spread is down for the week. This has not happened since September...
ReplyDeleteOkay, so isn't it nice to discover we always get this news after the fact?:
ReplyDeletehttp://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/Japan-new-tax-law-prompts-rsg-2302454525.html?x=0
Inquiring minds: Are we at an extreme, does this thing ever flip the other way or should we anticipate more of the same for the time being?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.commodityonline.com/news/gold-and-dow-prepare-for-extremes-you-have-never-seen-in-your-life-44679-3-1.html
Wow, AUMN has an amazing intraday graph of a relentless sequence of higher lows. I think it will shoot up above $6 right about now. Of course, this ascending wedge can also break to the downside, but somehow I am getting the feeling that the upside breakout is more likely.
ReplyDeleteAUMN was supposed to announce an updated resource estimate for the El Quevar project by the end of 2011 -- whatever happened to that? Maybe insiders are already anticipating it?
Yep, just as I said -- the upside resistance at $5.92 was just broken by AUMN. I hope some of you guys bought into it...
ReplyDeleteOkay, back to just waiting...
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Nice, the opening gap up closed. Any other open gaps up to contend with?
AUMN - Nope, no open gaps aside from the ones down in Sept. from $11.80's
ReplyDeleteDang- Good thing I cashed out HL. I'd be left with a burger.
ReplyDeleteSVM-
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news-article/2115687-silvercorp-to-commence-work-on-resource-and-reserve-updates
I just came back from renting skis for my son (we are going to Tahoe for the New Years) and I see that SLV went into the red, dragging down AUMN from its daily highs. Oh well. But there is a new reason for optimism: AUMN is green despite SLV being red! And the same goes for SVM. I think the stock traders, who are concerned about the FUTURE of the company, believe the takedown in silver is a temporary phenomenon.
ReplyDeleteWake up Kyle.
ReplyDeleteMark - I'm here Bubba...there was your girl...:-)
ReplyDeleteI wonder how she'd read my chart? :)
ReplyDeleteI'm sure she likes Big Boys...
ReplyDeleteGod, just kill this year pls.
ReplyDeleteOn a more serious note, I saw your comment re Art Cashin. He has had those head shakes for many months. Hope it's not Parkinson's. That shaking in the hands looked really bad.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/45825567
ReplyDeleteYeah, makes me sad as hell. He seems like one of the few good guys.
ReplyDeleteNice! OptionsHouse shows that the closing bid on AUMN was $5.86 and the closing ask was $5.80. :) A fitting finale for a crazy year.
ReplyDeleteSo long, 2011!
Happy (upcoming) New Year to everyone!
I hope it brings a reversal of many crazy tendencies of 2011 and GDXJ (and AUMN) at least come back to where they were on Jan 1 2011. :)
OK, the ask on AUMN moved up to $6.29, while the bid is still at $5.86. So I'll assume that AUMN closed at $5.86 today, with a 4% gain. :)
ReplyDeleteS&P futures, on the other hand, finished at new lows for the day, which means that all the weak hands took profits for the year, and next week they will come back to chase the prices higher!
ReplyDeleteDavid - Just curious, are you interested in something like FSG, or is that too much like pushing luck?
ReplyDeleteWhat a complete waste of my time.
ReplyDeleteComplete waste of time - No shit, what did you expect?
ReplyDeleteOkay, so in 2012, silver is likely to trade between $22.50 to as high as $40...
ReplyDelete"David - Just curious, are you interested in something like FSG, or is that too much like pushing luck?"
ReplyDeleteCP, I would be interested in FSG if I had any money left. At this point, however, I *have* to go for securities that have the highest upside potential. IMO, these are junior mining stocks or call options on SLV/GLD.
David - Yeah, these exotic infiniteX ETF's decay like mad, enuff to keep me away...
ReplyDeleteWe are at what appears to be an extreme, which of course could get and has gotten, even more extreme.
Watching the $INDU:$GOLD chart we just poked through important? resistance yesterday and today looked like a POTENTIAL, TENTATIVE reversal...
Sigh.......
Here's the chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU:$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736
1. How dare you ridicule Art Cashin! I always drink champagne with two shaking hands. I steady out a bit when I've had a couple glasses. Just wait until you get to Art's age. We should all hope to be as sharp.
ReplyDelete2. Stocks that have decent volatility...for David.
You can make a boat load in MITK. I made two RT trades today (I bought 2000 yesterday at 7.27) sold those at 7.50, watched it go to 7.27 again where I bought 2000 again and sold those at 7.49. I bought another 1000 at the close at 7.28 (I don't want to be greedy).
MITK has been one of those trading stocks. Of course that only last so long and then you are either on the good side or the losing side.
I want to wait until we're above the 200 dma on gold/silver and the Euro is stable and the dollar falling before I commit anything there.
There is always a chance of decoupling, but the market will have to prove it to me, so I'll be a little late but safe. I did trade some UXG that I bought a few days back, but only as a trade which worked today. I closed out this sucky year pretty strongly.
Enjoy the weekend everyone and here's wishing all of you a very happy, safe, healthy and above all, prosperous new year! Be careful out there.
No wonder I'm frustrated. Finished the year +86% while the last quarter has been -2.3%. What a grind.
ReplyDelete"How dare you ridicule Art Cashin!"
ReplyDeleteGenerally speaking, I thought we were admiring him! ;)
Well done Mark! Yes the last quarter has been a pain in the ass man. Too many trading opportunities passed up for me personally because I tried to go buy and hold on too many things. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteMark, +86%! You need to start writing the lead posts, man. O/w we're just listening to +5% sounding off.
ReplyDeleteOn a bright note, looks like those 3 K-Mart employees up your way made the cut.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/florida-hit-hardest-sears-store-220653249.html
CP - Yep, Admiration and Concern for a Really Good Guy...
ReplyDeleteActually, with the kinds of gains you and tof are grinding out, you should both be CC superstars. It's unfortunate that only sub-par performances are rewarded there. Low tolerance for above par.
ReplyDelete-40% seems to warrant the most attention.
ReplyDeleteThanks, but 1/2 the credit goes to TOF. It really was only a few trades. BEXP/HEK/XCO/RAS/MITK...And you know damn well 2nd I'm taking WAY more risk than I should.
ReplyDeleteCC- I like the crowd/barkeep better here. I only have to be asked to leave once.
ReplyDelete2nd - I think given the way you are patient and reluctant to make a move is great...if you were willing to take a little more risk by holding your trades for a bit longer I think you would find that you could easily beat out your mortgage rate.
ReplyDeleteHow's this for shitty. Took Harlan to work with me today. Was asked at the auto shop if I was his grandfather. Wow.
ReplyDeletewtf...is it normal to pump out kids by the age of 15 where you live?
ReplyDeleteWell, I will be 50 in January, but still...
ReplyDeleteGota love twits...
ReplyDelete"Dangdang Leads Losses as U.S. Index Posts Annual Decline: China Overnight - Bloomberg http://t.co/tl1nCWQs $DANG the winning POS, down 84%."
POS...Why does that make me laugh so hard I'm crying sometimes??
ReplyDeleteDANG/China - There's not much doubt in my mind why we don't see more Asian listings, Japan has almost no presence in US markets... Gee, wonder why?
ReplyDeleteCP- I hear you, but then I think about HEK buying China Water and Drink. Shit, they had a contract with KO and HEK has been doing M&A his entire carrier and they still got it wrong with all of their accountants etc. After all the lawsuits and give backs, which HEK has now sold, it was worth about 10% of what they paid for it.
ReplyDeleteMark - Yeah I'm completely convinced China's economy is 1/2 the size they say it is.
ReplyDeleteMark, fantastic returns. My goal next year is 20%, we'll see.
ReplyDeletewe all left work early today for the holiday. I test drove a 2011 Tahoe with ventilated seats. It rode a little rougher than what I was expecting so I guess it's back to the car based SUV's.
any of you cats following CRYP? chart looks good but its a widow maker.
ReplyDeleteport > go with the Ford Edge man. it rides great.
Did a quick look at my account, I'm down 5% when I combine realized and unrealized gains. I didn't carry over much from last year so it's probably pretty close to the real performance. I can easily point to 4 other trades similar to my CF fiasco that did it. CF, AMR, TBT, OIH and GLD. I've made money on CF and GLD over the year but I can point to a couple of trades or trading time frames where I took some really big losses. I documented the CF here on the blog because it was recent.
ReplyDeletei need a 3 row, you add another kid and you will too. But i think the Edge is excellent. I only have 2 kids but mother in law travels around with us quite a bit and then the occasional friend.
ReplyDeletehighlanders have a 3rd row i think right? that's a really nice car
ReplyDeleteI may add another sappy sentimental post tomorrow but I think its gonna be busy. I start the day early taking the little one to a birthday party so I'll make it now.
ReplyDeleteIt really helps me to see what u guys are doing, listening to ideas and your thoughts on the market. It helps me think about what I'm doing when I'm committed to posting all my trades on the blog. For some reason, even if it's a lousy trade, it helps me to focus.
For 2012, I plan on being more of a technical trader for the short term stuff but i plan on adding a few long term stocks, like my T and EPM trades, to the portfolio.
Thanks guys Happy New Year and let's kick ass in 2012 from the LONG AND/OR the SHORT side, whichever presents itself.
team - I love the Highlander too and I would have bought one but there's something on the console that bugs my right knee and I just can't get comfortable. I've test drove it at least 5 times trying to get situated just right. I'll probably end up in a Honda Pilot or MDX.
ReplyDeleteI just can't get past the looks but the Ford Flex is the most comfortable car I've driven over the last year.
ReplyDeletethe mdx is nice but isn't that the same size as the edge? the only other nice car i've ever had was the land rover....that car was beautiful, but had TERRIBLE gas mileage. it did have 3 rows of seating.
ReplyDeletei agree about the writing your thoughts thing out man. i honestly think you would do well ditching options. i suspect they've killed the retirement plans of thousands of people. my dad used to work for toll bros before he retired and around 2000 he told me about a guy that signed for a new house and had to cancel because his options tanked...he called back a week later to re-up his deal because his options came back.
the week after that he backed out because his options flopped.
for some advice, i would say buy some financials. not only are they set up well technically, but no one likes them.
the MDX is a 7 seater but it takes premium fuel. and the reported average mpg is around 18
ReplyDeletei agree on the naked long options, I'll always have them in the portfolio but they will be 20% or less (most of the time less) of the total.
What I would like to do more of is sell cash secured puts for stuff I want to own long term. Other than JNJ I'm just not sure what that would be at the moment.