Friday, December 9, 2011

12/9/11 A gin soaked, bar-room queen



Listen up, yo. Obviously I called it- the DJIA closed below 12000 yesterday, y'all caught that?

Now I knew it would bounce too, which is why I went all-in at Thursday's close. But I was all ----ed up on this reefer and ----, unable to give y'all the 911 (y'all know I don't ---- around with 411s on the blog yo).

So I still got cred, right?

Yeah, ---- that.

So I called it wrong- I don't shy away from no wrong calls, it all part of the game, cuz. But I did pick up TZA at the corner after hours at 26.60- not even a nickel bag, bro- a deuce bag, haha. ----ing douche bag is right, y'all.
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61 comments:

  1. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 4:29 PM

    Silver - Hmm, nothing pops out at me on the 100 year silver chart aside from the obvious date of 1963 when the one dollar silver certificate was dumped and the dollar/silver divergence became meaningful.

    One interesting fact is, two silver dimes ($4.66 today) bought a loaf of bread in 1961, and still buys that same loaf today, gasoline was $0.31/gal, but now those two silver dimes easily buy that same gallon of gasoline.

    I wonder if gasoline will rise to the value of those two dimes?

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  2. AnonymousDecember 9, 2011 at 4:35 PM

    2nd - I would dump that TZA dog right quick. We gap and go on Monday. 1,300 or bust.

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  3. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 5:08 PM

    SLR vs UXG - Wow, finally something besides "Fly halfway around the earth and drink with me and I might tell you something worth knowing".

    BC sure can be an ass, that's all I've got to say about someone who would suggest what I think I hear him suggesting. I still recall him recommending withdrawing our capital from the likes of BAC in a panic when we should've been buying the shares up @ $3. Now he's suggesting everyone come to the rescue by throwing themselves in front of McEwen's burning bus? Same thing happened with SVM and it's still not clear if he stuck with it or pumped and dumped as he offers nothing, or perhaps can't admit for some inexplicable reason. A whole bunch of just nothing, LOL!

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  4. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 5:17 PM

    TZA - Yeah, I'm not sure why 2nd thinks we're gonna sell off, at least wait for RSI(7) to move up into the clouds, it only just skimmed 70. I kinda don't think the big boys are quite done sucking in the next load of sheering victims unless someone comes to a realization while reading the fine print this weekend.

    Should get interesting early next year when Italy starts trying to roll over their E300B of debt...

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  5. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    Gap & Go - Speaking of gaps, there's an open one in SPY around 1175...

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  6. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 5:24 PM

    $26.60 that's a pretty good price though, I'm just not convinced we're heading down 1st thing next week.

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  7. illiniDecember 9, 2011 at 5:38 PM

    TOF - "I'm willing to bet that most "technical" traders have gotten their asses handed to them this year."

    Probably right for all except intraday traders like Vad. He recently commented that this is a news driven market, per Europe. Chart patterns still work during the day but not as good for other time frames.

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  8. MarkWDecember 9, 2011 at 5:39 PM

    BC- That's just the booze talking. But seriously, how did Dr. S let that position move so far against him. 40%? Isn't the point of following all of this so closely to avoid that?

    KOG was 3.50 during the panic.

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  9. MarkWDecember 9, 2011 at 6:12 PM

    GMCR was at COST also the last time I was there.

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  10. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 6:53 PM

    FSLR - Not much of a response to Buffett's $2B purchase of the FSLR TOPAZ project, even though FSLR will supply the hardware?

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  11. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 7:06 PM

    "how did Dr. S let that position move so far against him. 40%? "

    Not sure I know what you're referring to, but that's kinda my point too, BC keeps on pumping the lower the miners go, it seems like. ie: He bought, or said he bought, but never mentions anything about selling, just mum.

    So, what the heck's up with that and where's the analysis of what went wrong? No post-mortem of a trade or nuthin, just a black hole void of explanation.

    Straight off the cliff again...

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  12. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 7:14 PM

    Silver - If credible, this story is bearish for silver solar demand, time for a rally?:

    "Approximately half of China’s PV manufacturing firms have ceased production, according to a report on the Chinese newspaper Guangzhou Daily and as cited by Digitimes. Chronic oversupply and massive price drops would appear to have nudged the lower-performing China-based manufacturers over the edge, with the solar energy division of CSG Holding’s research suggesting that half have stopped production, around 30% are at half their production capability and 20% are at pains to maintain their current levels of production.

    Data collected by Digitimes Research imply that tier-1 solar companies are the only ones that are able to claim capacity utilization rates above 80% for the first half of 2011. "

    http://www.pv-tech.org/news/report_claims_50_of_chinese_solar_firms_have_ceased_production?utm_source=pvtech-feeds&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=news-rss-feed

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  13. 2nd_aveDecember 9, 2011 at 7:21 PM

    Re: SLR VS UXG
    Submitted by Dr. Strangelove (1517 comments) on Fri, 12/09/2011 - 19:43 #101679 (in reply to #101677)
    Bill -

    Like I said, I'm holding my UXG and down 37% to 44% with some big positions. I certainly believe Rob will deliver but also believe the boys are treating him to a personalized beatdown to flush the weak and capitalize on it. How that plays out won't matter because Rob will protect my interests better than a cash position in a FUBAR securities market.

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  14. 2nd_aveDecember 9, 2011 at 7:22 PM

    Jonestown.

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  15. DavidDecember 9, 2011 at 7:25 PM

    "But seriously, how did Dr. S let that position move so far against him. 40%? Isn't the point of following all of this so closely to avoid that?"

    I wish I were down only 40% in all the stocks I am holding: AUMN since $20, SORL since $7, WATG since $8, etc...

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  16. 2nd_aveDecember 9, 2011 at 7:30 PM

    David- WTF happened! No stops?

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  17. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 7:39 PM

    UK Solar installation for 2011 are 60% higher than reported:

    http://www.pv-tech.org/news/incredible_uk_solar_installation_figures_revealed_5478?utm_source=pvtech-feeds&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=news-rss-feed

    I kinda read this same thing months ago, not sure of where but it was a post on a tiny silicon wafer blog somewhere an installer was saying the numbers were wrong and they were bustng out the installations. It was so long ago that's all I remember but I wasn't thinking of the UK at the time.

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  18. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 7:43 PM

    Jonestown, perfect description! I see, the Dr's post now, hadn't refreshed the tab...

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  19. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 7:56 PM

    Okay, who was it that claimed ECB was going to perform QE? They've been refusing to do this for months now...

    "Soundbites continue coming
    Submitted by Vadym Graifer (2806 comments) on Fri, 12/09/2011 - 20:57 #101686

    (EU) ECB's Nowotny: There are risks involved in the implementation of the summit principles; it must be quickly implemented
    - Bond buying is limited in scope and longevity.
    - Rumors about ECB considering expanded bond buying program is wrong. No possibility of greatly expanding ECB bond purchases.

    If this part in bold is what transpires, I'll call it Seinfield rally..."

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  20. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 8:10 PM

    TOF - "I'm willing to bet that most "technical" traders have gotten their asses handed to them this year."

    I seem to recall technical traders warning of the H&S the ended in a double top just before the shtf.

    Which brings up the question, why all the cheerleading for "gap and go", show me an open gap in the chart and you'll be showing me an exception to the rule, something at the far edge of the bell curve that looms and begs for closure, keeps traders up at night, etc...

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  21. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 8:25 PM

    David - Not sure how, but I think PM miners were somehow late to the sell-off party... How about you?

    To add insult to the injury, I would expect metals miners to bottom out before equities, and that doesn't seem to be the way it's playing out this time around.

    Thus, this observation might lead someone with and open mind to consider the possibility that our recent equity rally may be just an arranged transfer of risk from smart money to dumb money?

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  22. MarkWDecember 9, 2011 at 8:59 PM

    "A fractured Europe, inward-looking and navel-gazing," says Grant. "Unable to be a world player, staggering from crisis summit to crisis summit." The Guardian

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  23. MarkWDecember 9, 2011 at 9:14 PM

    Why do old farts have to wear those lame powder blue wind breakers? I mean seriously, will I think that looks cool when I'm that age? Is that all there is left then?

    I'm asking you 2nd.

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  24. MarkWDecember 9, 2011 at 9:27 PM

    Or really, JB.

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  25. ChickenpookieDecember 9, 2011 at 11:35 PM

    So Europe's plan is for governments to loan money to banks so that banks can turn around and loan money to the governments?

    Anyway,

    Robert Rubin - EU will take at least a year to make necessary changes, could bring global financial system to it's knees.

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  26. DavidDecember 9, 2011 at 11:52 PM

    "David- WTF happened! No stops?"

    Nope. I decided to become a part-owner of a company, ECU+AUMN, and as the fate was allowing me to increase my ownership more and more at smaller and smaller prices, I took that opportunity. I don't doubt that their business will succeed.

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  27. DavidDecember 9, 2011 at 11:56 PM

    "Thus, this observation might lead someone with and open mind to consider the possibility that our recent equity rally may be just an arranged transfer of risk from smart money to dumb money?"

    Could be, CP. But this pattern of constant rallies after sell-offs for a few months now gives me the feeling that we aren't going to get a one big market decline. And if so, then we are just facing an extreme swing of the mood pendulum about the gold mining sector. I've seen a few complete cycles by now, and I know that no cycle continues forever. I might become insolvent before the market stops being irrational, but that's another story. :)

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  28. 2nd_aveDecember 10, 2011 at 6:16 AM

    David- I'd rather see you own a house in Campbell.

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  29. 2nd_aveDecember 10, 2011 at 6:20 AM

    Mark- Not me, man. If it's cold and windy, you'll find me inside with a good book.

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  30. AnonymousDecember 10, 2011 at 7:52 AM

    Any of you crazy kooks follow AVAV? it's a drone maker and those fast money guys covered it on Friday. Consensus says that is the only part of military spending that will grow. Excellent balance sheet and solid revenue growth. The whole Iran thing may shed light on drones, good and bad.

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  31. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 8:16 AM

    Drones - I agree, this will be a huge money maker. At some point I might even begin making some engineering design suggestions, such as installing self-destruction mechanisms in case of capture.

    First though, we've got to improve the communications system to make it impervious to commandeering, and remove the virus code from the software.

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  32. BB CanadaDecember 10, 2011 at 8:27 AM

    David, interesting that market cap of AUMN now is less than that of ECU prior to the merger. If you buy now, you are basically getting old AUMN for free.

    I agree that it is a cheap stock, good management. I personally am avoiding the PM stocks though until we see a big pullback in the price of Gold.

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  33. BB CanadaDecember 10, 2011 at 8:29 AM

    Assuming the pullback in Gold comes...

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  34. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 8:29 AM

    TOF - Did Fast Money mention any of the components/systems vendors involved? If only we knew which stocks Congress is holding....

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  35. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 9:02 AM

    OVTI - How about this one?

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  36. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 9:10 AM

    I'm not sure but there could be better short term opportunities out there than PM miners. I'd like to find something to make a few bucks on, for a change, while "they"'re holding miners down... ;)

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  37. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 9:14 AM

    RIMM - Is this thing going to zero?

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  38. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 9:22 AM

    BB - The way I see it, either copper moves up, or gold moves down. Unless of course, the correlation falls apart... ie: I suppose it's possible everything could crash while gold takes off, but that premise would be a strange phenomenon.

    Considering that gold is so deep into it's triangle formation (>75%), the TA expectation is the initial breakout, be it up or down, will be a false move.

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  39. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 9:29 AM

    I see copper did in fact move up yesterday, while gold moved down, an encouraging sign if the trend in this chart is to the downside(away from recessionary pressure) towards 400:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD:$COPPER&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7 736

    My understanding is this would be good for zinc, lead, silver miners in terms of industrial demand, amongst a broad host of others.

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  40. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    Then I look at the $SPX, and see RSI(7) bounced off 70 but didn't really penetrate, so maybe it just moves sideways a while and works off some strength for another attempt at moving up through 70?

    I'm not convinced by what I think I see in the charts, that we're headed down next week.

    Maybe I'm wrong...

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  41. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 9:41 AM

    Mark - "Why do old farts have to wear those lame powder blue wind breakers?"

    Is it this particular color, or would my dark green "Members Only" jacket qualify?

    I may have to hunt up a blue MO jacket from somewhere, depending on your response... ;)

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  42. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 10:05 AM

    My MO jacket is a size 40 and still fits just fine, there's a lot of 7 for sale on EBay one of which is powder blue, but this auction ends in 45 minutes....

    http://www.ebay.com/itm/AWESOME-Members-Only-Jacket-LOT-7-Jackets-/320809166422?pt=US_CSA_MC_Outerwear&hash=item4ab1b76656

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  43. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 10:10 AM

    $USD - We've still got to punch through the double top (of ~80) on this chart in order to get a sell off, I think, if this serves as a double top then the formation target would be $USD 70:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$usd&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&i=p99295968853&a=217994610&r=7736

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  44. MarkWDecember 10, 2011 at 10:27 AM

    CP- Too funny man!!

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  45. MarkWDecember 10, 2011 at 10:29 AM

    MOG speaks!

    I just returned from a week in Seattle and Calgary, all three boards and nothing too encouraging in sight. Truck market is recovering but Europe will hammer us in 2012, wish our policymakers would get their act together. Cash is not a bad position, I have taken several "protection" bets on S & P, some fancy hedges that give up the upside for downside protection, making a little money on the end of year bounce. Private equity is good if you stick with assets and financing for those still in distress.

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  46. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 10:44 AM

    TBT - Might be time? LOL, how many time have you heard that one?

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  47. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 10:46 AM

    Thanks for the MOG feedback! Digesting....

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  48. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 10:51 AM

    "Too funny man!!"

    You haven't witnessed nothin' till you take a walk with me on the wild side of fogie attire...

    I'll admit to not owning any bell-bottoms though, so don't expect too much....

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  49. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 10:54 AM

    "financing for those still in distress."

    Hmm, running with this one... Euro government financial distress?

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  50. DavidDecember 10, 2011 at 11:29 AM

    An interesting article from John Mauldin about the recent European treaty:

    http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/thoughts_from_the_frontline/archive/2011/12/10/a-player-to-be-named-later.aspx

    This doesn't look good to me. We know that weak European countries are in a bind: if they make budget cuts, then their economy declines and they won't get rid of their deficits. Greece and Ireland have already demonstrated that. So the current rule of not being given any help from ECB unless their deficit is smaller than 3% of the GDP. For comparison, the US is now running deficits of 10% of the GDP and it simply cannot reduce them without going back into a recession. And if a country with large deficits is not getting any help from the ECB, then how is it different from the recent Greek crisis except that there would be NO option of getting help in the first place?

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  51. KyleDecember 10, 2011 at 11:52 AM

    I like this guys work/analysis...

    http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/World-Market-Snapshot.php

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  52. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 12:19 PM

    I like his analysis as well...

    Hmmmm, As Grym might be tempted to note...

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  53. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 12:24 PM

    "if they make budget cuts, then their economy declines and they won't get rid of their deficits."

    Time to "Man Up"? This experiment could go either way, the right thing to do would be in favor of rebalancing trade.

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  54. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 1:07 PM

    Okay, so I just popped open a new bottle of Cognac from the new liquor store right next to the new grocery store.

    One thing you can count on, wait long enough and civilization comes to you!

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  55. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 1:28 PM

    You guys did see that article on UK solar installations, right?

    http://www.pv-tech.org/news/incredible_uk_solar_installation_figures_revealed_5478?utm_source=pvtech-feeds&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=news-rss-feed

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  56. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 1:44 PM

    WFR - Oh-oh, is something afeet? So tough to pick a bottom when these charts look like bottomless pits but the volume seems to have spiked here...

    I'm really not sure, just poking around today...

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  57. DavidDecember 10, 2011 at 1:51 PM

    On the other hand, the weaker European nations that cannot get out of deficit can just come to EU/ECB ahead of time and tell them: "YOU create a budget for us for the next year, and then don't blame us if we still run large deficits under this budget." If they do this (or at least make sure that EU/ECB ratifies their budgets for the next year and will thus take the responsibility for the results), then it seems like large debt monetizations of the weaker nations are inevitable by ECB. Maybe that's what the market is looking forward to...

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  58. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 3:07 PM

    Yes, it's quite ironic that Europe remains the center of barbarism on behalf of yes, (what a freakin' gift!) Germanic culture!

    Who would've thought the historical currency periodic constant so short?

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  59. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 3:10 PM

    Internet expolorer: What a disgrace to the world of software engineering...

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  60. 2nd_aveDecember 10, 2011 at 4:59 PM

    new post

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  61. ChickenpookieDecember 10, 2011 at 5:02 PM

    Systemic analysis:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laplace_transform

    ReplyDelete

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