I will go on record as being bullish on the general market for 2012. Sure we could have a pullback here and it would be healthy to get some of the optimism out of the market, but I find it hard to envisage a scenario where we do not end up with a good gain for the year.
Europe has issues, but they are well known, being worked on, and I don't see the Germans being so dogmatic as to allow a broad European recession (which would hurt their country and chances of getting re-elected due to their dependence on intra-European trade).
Companies are very profitable, valuations are good, money is cheap, business is growing, the economy is improving, jobs are increasing, the Fed and now the ECB are supportive - all good things.
Over longer periods (like a year), fundamentals almost always win out.
ok i have to ask: what the hell is the big deal about the floods in thailand? i have seen this blamed for pretty much everything, including Ford's quarterly report.
so i believe i'm going to take a long weekend and a break from trading today. however, i really like DECK for some reason (probably because everyone hates it) and if MITK can get to the 200DMA i like that as well.
wow wow wow. PATK crashing. this was one of Stephen Stewart's picks. I was thinking it would be a good buy at $4.4. I might have to put a stink bid in at that price.
My trade of the generation officially ended. I'm out of my 100% port stake in UNG Feb. $5 calls. I firmly believe/believed that it was a 700-1200% one month trade, but the stress of being "all-in" in options was driving me insane.
My port was probably up well over 200% since last week as of Wednesday's close (I couldn't get myself to look). I exited up exactly 100%. Sounds great, but I am quite disappointed as I took on a ton of risk thinking it would be a truly monster trade. In any event, natgas has seen its bottom and it could very well see $4 next month.
Exited BVSN -.20. Seeing a lot of the momos reversing past 2 days in a strong market. Setting up for a post expiration spill from overbought levels on Monday or Tuesday. Will position accordingly if we get a positive close for the Nasdaq, SOX, and RUT
Naz 1st time above rsi(14) 70 in past year. S+P bullish % at one year high. S+P hit upper bolinger band 2 sessions in a row. NASI summation of 90 matching high going back 2 years. AAPL 3 days above upper bolinger band and above long term trendline. Once AAPL disburses cash, the run is officially over (see CSCO after it started distributing dividends at max growth rate- MSFT too) VIX weekly hammer. U.S.dollar on 13 wma support @ 79.36 TVIX volume surging (500% above avg.) as it continues lower. I love this kind of action b4 a reversal
FXP looks good SKF PSQ QID
sentimentrader Jason Goepfert $AAPL has gapped +10% following earnings 4 times since '97. Over the next week, $NDX was positive 0/4 times.
jesse- Wow, bro. The only way I could survive a trade like that is hire Michael Jackson's doc to put me under with instructions to wake me at the target price.
TVIX all-time record weekly volume of 50 million as it has trended down all week. 3 and 4 weeks ago it was around 8 and 12 million. Something is up. Even if market doesn't outright crash, we could see a big push in fear.
Only closed above upper bolinger band one other occasion (9/21) this year (3 days in a row as well).
Went from $422 to $350 the next 10 sessions.
AAPL as peak eps growth rate and margins. Will distribute cash. Kiss of death for momentum investors. The "dividend investor" argument is 110% meaningless for a 9 year momo stock.
EPS is always LOWEST at the exact top and HIGHEST (or non-existent) at the exact bottom.
FSG - Perfect scenario for this one today, but I don't think Bernanke has declining stocks and rising PM's in mind. No, I think what I see looks more like profit taking and rotation, thus FSG won't benefit from declining equities if at all...
AAPL: I think you are onto something here. Too much talk of dividend and I keep hearing institutional holders saying "it's priced to perfection". I know the 'code' for sell, sell, sell.
SKUL - Another example of why it pays to ignore the market and just focus on stocks. I got scared out of it (and everything else yesterday) at $13.1, despite knowing how oversold it was, how strong the business has been, and how huge the short position is in the stock.
Thanks for the stats on AAPL - was looking for a way to short it and was thinking of selling longer term out of the money calls, but based on these, went with at the money puts at $7.20.
Jesse, you put 100% of your port into OUT-OF-THE-MONEY calls??? That's crazy, man! I am glad that it worked out for you. Doubling your port in a few days? That's great! How much are you up YTD?
CP, I would be *REALLY* surprised if SLV does not rise above its August 2011 highs of $42 this year... I would say there is a 50-50 chance of it breaking out to new all-time highs...
I am not counting AUMN, which is up even more than SVM so far today. AUMN is a $50 stock, so I won't even worry about its prices below $20, since I know they are just a "glitch in the system."
I just canceled my buy stop limit on MGIC at $6.33. The chart gave me a feeling that it will inevitably have a spike up above the previous high of $6.32 and will then inevitably pull back to shake everyone who jumps on board. I would rather enter it AFTER the pullback.
Filed this under no shit (but it is good for sentiment for IRE):
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)-- Fitch Ratings downgraded Italy , Spain , Belgium , Cyprus and Slovenia's sovereign debt ratings Friday as it wrapped up a review of the region. Fitch affirmed its rating on Ireland . All six countries ratings carry a negative outlook, which means there is a slightly greater than 50% chance they are downgraded in the next two years. The euro briefly tumbled on the news, which came mere moments after the common currency climbed above $1.32 for the first time since Dec. 31 , according to EBS via CQG. However, the euro clawed back all of those losses already. It was most recently trading at $1.3204 . The knee-jerk reaction in the currency market was likely short lived because Fitch's moves were not considered as severe as the ones taken by Standard & Poor's two weeks ago. At that time, S&P slashed ratings on nine euro -zone members, including stripping France of its triple-A rating. Fitch's review did not include any triple-A rated euro-zone nations so France's top-notch rating in the eyes of Fitch remains in tact. In downgrading the five nations, Fitch said it is concerned about the divergence of monetary and credit conditions across the euro zone. The ratings firm is also worried about the vulnerability of these countries to further monetary and financing shocks. Spain and Italy have seen yields on their sovereign debt fall sharply in recent weeks, thanks in large part to the European Central Bank's long-term lending program. However, Fitch said future shocks could plague the region until the euro zone secures greater economic and financial stability, including great fiscal integration. "The government is aware of the imbalances in the economy and that's why it's launched an ambitious program of structural reform that will be completed in the first quarter," said a spokeswoman at Spain's Finance ministry. Spain's rating was cut to single-A from double-A-minus. Fitch said without further convergence within the euro zone and a broad economic recovery, a break-up of the common currency bloc cannot be completely ruled out. The likelihood of such a scenario remains small, Fitch added. Fitch cut Belgium's rating to double-A from double-A-plus. Cyprus was cut to triple-B-minus from triple-B. Italy's rating was slashed to single-A-minus from single-A-plus. Slovenia saw its rating cut to single-A from double-A-minus.
Folks, if you want to enter SORL, now is not a bad time to take 1/2 position in it. SORL is a $5 stock, and if you take a 1/2 position now, you *might* be lucky to buy the other half on a pullback to $2.7. But I think the chance of SORL dropping temporarily to $2.7 is less than 50%.
dudes check out HDSN. apparently the EPA had some ruling on refrigerators that is significantly positively impacting their business. There could be a lot more momo in this one.
David- MGIC looks great. One of you posted an eps progression for it. Great co.. To answer your question, port up somewhere in that ballpark. I try not to monitor where I am ytd etc. as it can cause me to hesitate at times from a psychological perspective.
HDSN - It looks like the refrigerant recycling industry just got a booster shot:
"(EPA) has issued “No Action Assurance” letters to importers and producers of Hydrochlorofluorocarbon-22 (HCFC-22) that reduces the amount of HCFC-22 that can be manufactured and/or imported in 2012 by approximately 45% from the amount allowed to be produced and/or imported in 2011. "
Out TVIX -.20. Could waterfall into close. Not liking Facebook IPO.
Time for a pause?
"CAT Beats Estimates, Sees Robust 2012" "EMC earnings surge on strong storage demand" "There's No Reason Intel Won't Contine to Surge" "Intel Sweeps Record Earnings into Coffers, Anticipates Robust 2012" "AAPL Delivers Blowout Earnings on Back of Mammoth-Sized Iphone Sales"
BBH rsi 80 XAL rsi 76 SOX rolling under 70 BBH rsi 78 DJ chemicals rsi 75 DJ computer hardware rsi 75
Why is no one talking about it? And why is TED spread making new lows every day (including today) DESPITE the situation in Portugal deteriorating? Did the banks already sell their Portuguese bonds to ECB?
Since AUMN has a positive correlation with silver in 2012, I figured I have enough exposure to silver already, and so I just sold at $7.30 my remaining 3 April $26 calls on SLV that I purchased at $6.15 in December. Still keeping my SVM and GDXJ calls.
Now, for risk diversification purposes, I just bought 10 April $5 calls on MITK at $3.90. I am paying extra 20c relative to its spot price, but I am using twice less money (comparing to buying 1K shares outright), which is important since I am buying it on margin.
Per analyst reports I'm reading, the coal space is doomed due to the low natty price. Should natty continue upwards (u know my bias), coal names should be highly leveraged.
Jesse, I would separate BTU from the rest of the coal pack since more than half of its production goes outside of USA (at least this was the case a couple of years ago). How is Chinese demand for coal looking right now?
For those of you looking for long-term investments. I'm pretty sure that 3d printing stocks will make major parabolic moves over the next 1-2 years.
For those that are not too familiar w/ the space, 3d printers can
-"print" new teeth- like the 20-40 different aligners you might need w/ invisalign. -print moulds for prototypes for any industry -the military is already using them for spare parts in the field -bioprinting for spare organs in the body -print a new plate on demand if junior throws one against the wall. -print a new faucet head on demand should you be unable to turn off broken valve. -customize virtually any consumer product per your criteria - instant "Crox" etc. -car spare parts - dealers would need much smaller inventory. -edible customized treats using granulated sugar cartridges- lollipops etc.
This will be big. The investor hype will be much bigger.
Most will play the printer companies, but I'm not so sure. Printing companies come and go. Its a commodity. Me thinks it will be the software companies who design the code. I.E. The next Microsoft. I'll need to dig further, but the only 2 that I know of are SSYS and ADSK.
Folks, why not load up on AA now (or AA calls, for adventurous souls)? AA has already broken out above its late November peak, and the aluminum spot price is already trading at the best level since October 4. AA will definitely hit $12 in a couple of months, and $16 is not out of the question by the end of the year.
July $8 calls give you a lot of leverage (in case AA runs above $12) and are trading now with a minimal premium to the spot price (a few weeks ago I purchased 10 July $8 calls on AA at $2.10). If AA runs to $13 by the summer time, then the calls purchased today will double... So put a few grands into those calls and let them ride till July...
Forgot, I picked up another "long baser" b4 the close (just a few k)- VALV
This is REALLY funny.
I got both a call and an urgent email from my broker last week for "manipulating the market and taking on excessive risk" The voicemail stated that they would have to notify the SEC if it continued:)
"We encourage you to be diligent in learning the essential facts relative to the securities held in your account...... It's important that your investment strategy remain consistent with your investment objectives...On occasion, clients inadvertently adopt a strategy that may violate trading regulations...- Creating or inducing a false, misleading or artificial appearance of activity in a security. - Unduly or improperly influencing the market price of a security. - Making a price that does not reflect the true state of the market in a security. - Trades which result in no change in beneficial ownership. - Pre-arranged trading with other parties
- An aggressive investment strategy that is generally not appropriate for someone with a low risk tolerance, limited investing experience, or limited resources.
- Concentrating your positions in low-priced securities, which pose special risks for investors because they often experience wide price fluctuations, sometimes have unproven track records, and may have lower liquidity than other stocks. Investors who are concentrated in low-priced equities are susceptible to experiencing substantial loss over a short period of time.
- Investment portfolios that are concentrated in a single security are more volatile than those that are diversified among a set of securities. Consequently, clients with a concentrated position in a single security are susceptible to experiencing a substantial loss over a short period of time.
DJ Coal index bolinger bands are the tightest since April 2009.
The index went from 150 to 255 in 6 weeks.
Gun to head, I would guess ACI sees 23 and JRCC sees 11-12 w/in 6 weeks based solely on the tightening charts. I could dig up 200 "reports" suggesting they decline from here. I live and die by charts which far more often than not tell the real story.
Ultimately tells me that natty will truly soar and I will be leaving a ton of money on the table. All is fine as long as I can sleep at night....
TOF, the RLD chart indeed looks interesting. If one buys it now with a stop at $8.50, then one can get a HUGE upside for a minimal downside risk. I just placed a buy stop limit order for 500 shares at $9.15/$9.20 and a buy limit for 500 shares at $8.90. Let's see which one of them gets triggered on Monday. :)
All right, just placed a buy stop limit for 1000 shares of JRCC at $7.02/$7.05, just above the peaks it was making since Jan 17. If bought, will place a sell stop at $6.40, just below the lows it was making since Jan 17.
"Eileen Leveckis, a spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase, said the bank's QuickDeposit feature is extremely popular with customers and "figures prominently" in the bank's marketing strategy.
Badarinath said checks deposited by mobile devices have a 99 percent acceptance rate. Most rejections occur because of shadows on the image, wrinkled checks or duplicate deposits made when customers don't believe they did it correctly.
Badarinath predicts that mobile deposit technology will spread to tablets with cameras, such as iPads. Image-capturing technology will continue to take the place of paper-based payments. In the future, customers may be able to take a picture of a bill, then a check to pay that bill. People may also be able to pay taxes with mobile devices, Badarinath said." 1/27/2012.
Well, I would have to agree with the 'excessive risk' call- although it's kind of like someone warning Bruce Lee there's a rough crowd in that part of town. 'Manipulating the market?' How many freaking calls did you buy, bro?
I see I missed yet another opportunity in DANG. Can't say I'm wasting my time, though- watching stocks like DANG and IRE explode up the right side of bases has been a learning experience. Confidence comes with pattern recognition.
Here's a theory- jesse shares a personality trait with Jesse Livermore, one that allows both to sit tight under circumstances no ordinary man would be able to withstand.
Yikes, I read that wrong. From the same article but the paragraph above...
"Niti Badarinath, director of mobile banking at U.S. Bank, would not disclose the number of customers using the bank's mobile check deposit service, but he said he was surprised at the rapid growth in adoption among customers, and the dollar amounts of checks being deposited.
The bank rolled out mobile deposits in the first quarter of 2011, initially serving the iPhone, and eventually launching apps for BlackBerry and Android devices. Badarinath said that by December 2011, more deposits were being made by mobile devices than by desktop computers, and the amounts are as high as checks being deposited by desktop.
"We thought people would tend to use their phone camera for smaller checks," he said. "I think this points to a rising comfort level. Instead of $60 or $70 checks, they're using their phones to deposit checks for hundreds, even thousands of dollars."
You know, when it comes to trading, we're all handicapped. Whether by the 3-day settlement rule, the mutual funds only restriction for workplace retirement accounts, or by excessive trading violations. Not to mention the order flow/inside information advantages available to brokerages. It's just totally ----ed up.
"You know, when it comes to trading, we're all handicapped. Whether by the 3-day settlement rule, the mutual funds only restriction for workplace retirement accounts, or by excessive trading violations. Not to mention the order flow/inside information advantages available to brokerages. It's just totally ----ed up."
2nd - The amount of manipulation in the market is un freaking believable. I know because I worked on hedge funds and I saw this shit first hand. Those effers would all get together with other managers and share ideas and then secretly agree to drive stocks up or down (usually down so they could make money shorting and then going long). I had one client that was HUGE (as in trillions under management) that had 2 funds in part of a fund family: one was a bond fund and one was an equity fund. In 2007/8 the bond fund would buy the shit out of the CDSs of banks, making the stocks drop, while the equity fund would short their stock. It was unbelievable. I wrote the SEC, the president, congressman...it all fell on deaf ears.
So we have to think of our advantages: (1) We're small and nimble (2) We don't have to worry about quarterly returns or annual returns in fear if losing our jobs (3) If we don't use leverage we won't have to worry about clients calling us at the worst time to take money back. (4) If we research a story well enough, we can just wait until panic hits the street, ignore the rumors and when the stock price has gotten totally out of whack from reality just buy the shit out of it.
IRE should continue to do well. It has great fundys to support 10-15 easy.
2nd- Its really tough to hold a position like that. Really, really tough to just function.
When I have such conviction in a trade, the last thing I want to do is watch the market or be on this board. The more data I see, the more opinions I read, and the more "great setups" I see, the greater the chance that I dump a position that I have 100% conviction in.
Aside from being on the road, that's the reason why at times I don't watch the market or visit this board for long stretches of time.
As most here here can attest, by far and away the biggest gains for us have been those entries where you close your eyes, sit on your hands, and trust your judgement 100% even when the position has already moved substantially in your favor..... Given all the research I/we posted on this board regarding the chart and underlying fundys, I think we can all say DANG! to what I said above.
Thanks for sharing. It does appear that the end justifies the means. Buying the shit out of the end result is likely as close as we'll get to kicking the shit out of the means creators.
jesse- I hear you re blinding yourself to opinions. Holding a large position leaves you at the mercy of even stray sentences. You're right- take a position you believe in, and damn the torpedoes.
I meant to add earlier that I like to see highly volatile "shakouts" at tops and bottoms where the stock price goes all over the place for 5 sessions or so w/out going anywhere. This tends to shake everyone out long and short.
For example:
JRCC
Down 15% flat up 5% down 5% up 8% down 7% up 7% gigantic 1 day bar down 3% up 3% today
If you pull up a 10 day chart, its exactly where it was 10 days ago 15 minutes after the open w/ by far and away the majority of the trading over 10 days taking place within 10 cents of 6.75.
Repost
ReplyDeleteI will go on record as being bullish on the general market for 2012. Sure we could have a pullback here and it would be healthy to get some of the optimism out of the market, but I find it hard to envisage a scenario where we do not end up with a good gain for the year.
Europe has issues, but they are well known, being worked on, and I don't see the Germans being so dogmatic as to allow a broad European recession (which would hurt their country and chances of getting re-elected due to their dependence on intra-European trade).
Companies are very profitable, valuations are good, money is cheap, business is growing, the economy is improving, jobs are increasing, the Fed and now the ECB are supportive - all good things.
Over longer periods (like a year), fundamentals almost always win out.
ENER is certainly trading countertrend.
ReplyDeleteDip buyers already stepping up to the plate in the first three minutes.
ReplyDeleteWell, the correction did last almost 24 hours (lol)!
ReplyDeleteDMND - Did we ever decide anything on this one?
ReplyDeleteTTM - Still a nice rally, can we bet IFN does well too?
DMND- At least for me there are too many issues out there. One day could kill you. Love the nuts though ;)
ReplyDeleteMan, the ZOO's getting killed again.
ReplyDeleteKaas took his loss on TBT.
ReplyDeleteok i have to ask: what the hell is the big deal about the floods in thailand? i have seen this blamed for pretty much everything, including Ford's quarterly report.
ReplyDeleteMark- How do you follow Kass?
ReplyDeletehe's on twitter 2nd.
ReplyDeleteso i believe i'm going to take a long weekend and a break from trading today. however, i really like DECK for some reason (probably because everyone hates it) and if MITK can get to the 200DMA i like that as well.
2nd- On twitter.
ReplyDelete"what the hell is the big deal about the floods in thailand?"
ReplyDeleteMy kneejerk guess might be a justification, or excuse for something? There must be a message in there somewhere?
DECK - Thanks Mark, I needed something to watch...
ReplyDeleteDECK - Looks like a decent entry here, to me.
ReplyDeleteDECK - Hey, are these the guys who make those stylish "Herman Munster" shoes?
ReplyDeleteDV - This one hasn't done so well, glad I didn't take a position...
ReplyDeleteSilver - Wow, hope my 2012 forecast doesn't get blown out of the water....
ReplyDeleteAlright I bought back in the DECK options: 7 x Feb $85 calls at $2.5. Also bought DECK stock: 865 shs @ 82.75
ReplyDeleteSFD - Assuming hog prices are slaughtered as Brandt anticipates, we might get a super deal on SFD?!?!?
ReplyDeleteAnother reason DECK is good for a trade: The DEATH CROSS just occurred. Again, to me that's a contrarian indicator.
ReplyDeletewow wow wow. PATK crashing. this was one of Stephen Stewart's picks. I was thinking it would be a good buy at $4.4. I might have to put a stink bid in at that price.
ReplyDeleteThat DECK is going to fill the gap up to $95. This stock is cheap.
ReplyDeleteGreetings from Quito-
ReplyDeleteMy trade of the generation officially ended. I'm out of my 100% port stake in UNG Feb. $5 calls. I firmly believe/believed that it was a 700-1200% one month trade, but the stress of being "all-in" in options was driving me insane.
My port was probably up well over 200% since last week as of Wednesday's close (I couldn't get myself to look). I exited up exactly 100%. Sounds great, but I am quite disappointed as I took on a ton of risk thinking it would be a truly monster trade. In any event, natgas has seen its bottom and it could very well see $4 next month.
well done jesse. but 100% calls? jeez man.
ReplyDeletedudes - this DECK is gonna fly very soon. up pretty much all day on a bad day for the DOW...when we turn this is gonna be up $5.
Picked up a little BVSN 21.71. Jon Lebed #1 pick for 2012 given at $8. Hit 45 this week and has retraced. Gap at $20 SHOULD be support.
ReplyDeleteSKUL looks strong as well.
ReplyDeleteExited BVSN -.20. Seeing a lot of the momos reversing past 2 days in a strong market. Setting up for a post expiration spill from overbought levels on Monday or Tuesday. Will position accordingly if we get a positive close for the Nasdaq, SOX, and RUT
ReplyDeleteCSTR breaking 200 DMA...I think it's getting into the forgotten stage which means it will finally rise.
ReplyDeleteGo DECK!
CAR - Sheesh, another one that ran...
ReplyDeleteMark - Why was COOL in the 30's back in the day?
ReplyDeleteNaz 1st time above rsi(14) 70 in past year.
ReplyDeleteS+P bullish % at one year high.
S+P hit upper bolinger band 2 sessions in a row.
NASI summation of 90 matching high going back 2 years.
AAPL 3 days above upper bolinger band and above long term trendline. Once AAPL disburses cash, the run is officially over (see CSCO after it started distributing dividends at max growth rate- MSFT too)
VIX weekly hammer.
U.S.dollar on 13 wma support @ 79.36
TVIX volume surging (500% above avg.) as it continues lower. I love this kind of action b4 a reversal
FXP looks good
SKF
PSQ
QID
sentimentrader Jason Goepfert
$AAPL has gapped +10% following earnings 4 times since '97. Over the next week, $NDX was positive 0/4 times.
jesse- Wow, bro. The only way I could survive a trade like that is hire Michael Jackson's doc to put me under with instructions to wake me at the target price.
ReplyDeleteEEM/SLX - Identical charts...
ReplyDeleteTVIX all-time record weekly volume of 50 million as it has trended down all week. 3 and 4 weeks ago it was around 8 and 12 million. Something is up. Even if market doesn't outright crash, we could see a big push in fear.
ReplyDeleteAAPL 3, 3, 3, 3 days closing above upper bolinger band.
ReplyDeleteOnly closed above upper bolinger band one other occasion (9/21) this year (3 days in a row as well).
Went from $422 to $350 the next 10 sessions.
AAPL as peak eps growth rate and margins. Will distribute cash. Kiss of death for momentum investors. The "dividend investor" argument is 110% meaningless for a 9 year momo stock.
EPS is always LOWEST at the exact top and HIGHEST (or non-existent) at the exact bottom.
FSG - Perfect scenario for this one today, but I don't think Bernanke has declining stocks and rising PM's in mind. No, I think what I see looks more like profit taking and rotation, thus FSG won't benefit from declining equities if at all...
ReplyDeleteCOOL- Not sure man. It 'was' more of a tech. trade for me. BAS is pissing me off now.
ReplyDeleteAAPL - Well, the gap up is likely to close, I would expect.
ReplyDeleteHII - This one has surprised me...
ReplyDeleteAAPL will close well above upper bolinger band on weekly.
ReplyDeleteOnly other instances last 10 years:
11/07- $190 to $150 in 1 week!
10/19/09 $209 to $185 in 1 week!
4/19/10 $272 to $199 in 1 week!
10/11/10 $293 to $275 in 1 week
2/7/11 $360 to $337 in 2 weeks
7/25/11 $404 to $353 in 1 week!
9/21/11 $422 to $353 in 1 week!
HII - Actually, it's another IH&S pattern just like EEM/SLX, and the target is $40.
ReplyDeleteThus, I really shouldn't be surprised at all.
AAPL: I think you are onto something here. Too much talk of dividend and I keep hearing institutional holders saying "it's priced to perfection".
ReplyDeleteI know the 'code' for sell, sell, sell.
UNG and now thinking of shorting AAPL. Your Superman.
ReplyDeletedudes = check out the news on NLS...pretty freaking good man. i still think that one is a great turnaround story.
ReplyDeleteRemember, NLS was a $30 stock in 2005.
ReplyDeleteI still figure the sooner I fall behind, the more time there is to catch up.
ReplyDeleteNLS - "Nautilus CFO resigns"
ReplyDeleteLooks like both hiring and firing "trouble makers" can both, be good strategies.
GMO should hire some diamond valley farmers...
SKUL - Another example of why it pays to ignore the market and just focus on stocks. I got scared out of it (and everything else yesterday) at $13.1, despite knowing how oversold it was, how strong the business has been, and how huge the short position is in the stock.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the stats on AAPL - was looking for a way to short it and was thinking of selling longer term out of the money calls, but based on these, went with at the money puts at $7.20.
ReplyDeleteJesse, you put 100% of your port into OUT-OF-THE-MONEY calls??? That's crazy, man! I am glad that it worked out for you. Doubling your port in a few days? That's great! How much are you up YTD?
ReplyDeleteCP, I would be *REALLY* surprised if SLV does not rise above its August 2011 highs of $42 this year... I would say there is a 50-50 chance of it breaking out to new all-time highs...
ReplyDeleteSVM is rocking today. After all, it WAS the next stock (on my watch list) to break out...
ReplyDeleteI am not counting AUMN, which is up even more than SVM so far today. AUMN is a $50 stock, so I won't even worry about its prices below $20, since I know they are just a "glitch in the system."
ReplyDeleteI just canceled my buy stop limit on MGIC at $6.33. The chart gave me a feeling that it will inevitably have a spike up above the previous high of $6.32 and will then inevitably pull back to shake everyone who jumps on board. I would rather enter it AFTER the pullback.
ReplyDeleteDavid - I agree with your call on MGIC.
ReplyDeleteFiled this under no shit (but it is good for sentiment for IRE):
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)-- Fitch Ratings downgraded Italy , Spain , Belgium , Cyprus and Slovenia's sovereign debt ratings Friday as it wrapped up a review of the region.
Fitch affirmed its rating on Ireland . All six countries ratings carry a negative outlook, which means there is a slightly greater than 50% chance they are downgraded in the next two years.
The euro briefly tumbled on the news, which came mere moments after the common currency climbed above $1.32 for the first time since Dec. 31 , according to EBS via CQG. However, the euro clawed back all of those losses already. It was most recently trading at $1.3204 .
The knee-jerk reaction in the currency market was likely short lived because Fitch's moves were not considered as severe as the ones taken by Standard & Poor's two weeks ago. At that time, S&P slashed ratings on nine euro -zone members, including stripping France of its triple-A rating.
Fitch's review did not include any triple-A rated euro-zone nations so France's top-notch rating in the eyes of Fitch remains in tact.
In downgrading the five nations, Fitch said it is concerned about the divergence of monetary and credit conditions across the euro zone. The ratings firm is also worried about the vulnerability of these countries to further monetary and financing shocks.
Spain and Italy have seen yields on their sovereign debt fall sharply in recent weeks, thanks in large part to the European Central Bank's long-term lending program. However, Fitch said future shocks could plague the region until the euro zone secures greater economic and financial stability, including great fiscal integration.
"The government is aware of the imbalances in the economy and that's why it's launched an ambitious program of structural reform that will be completed in the first quarter," said a spokeswoman at Spain's Finance ministry. Spain's rating was cut to single-A from double-A-minus.
Fitch said without further convergence within the euro zone and a broad economic recovery, a break-up of the common currency bloc cannot be completely ruled out. The likelihood of such a scenario remains small, Fitch added.
Fitch cut Belgium's rating to double-A from double-A-plus. Cyprus was cut to triple-B-minus from triple-B. Italy's rating was slashed to single-A-minus from single-A-plus. Slovenia saw its rating cut to single-A from double-A-minus.
Folks, if you want to enter SORL, now is not a bad time to take 1/2 position in it. SORL is a $5 stock, and if you take a 1/2 position now, you *might* be lucky to buy the other half on a pullback to $2.7. But I think the chance of SORL dropping temporarily to $2.7 is less than 50%.
ReplyDeleteDamn, the shorts have their foot on HEK's throat.
ReplyDeleteWhat's wrong with UXG?
ReplyDeletedudes check out HDSN. apparently the EPA had some ruling on refrigerators that is significantly positively impacting their business. There could be a lot more momo in this one.
ReplyDeleteAs a "proof of concept", just bought 1000 more shares of SORL at $2.95.
ReplyDeleteRENN ripping higher and bringing all china internet stocks with it.
ReplyDeletePicked up TVIX 17.20's. HUGE volume as it declines. Something is up.
ReplyDeleteSimilar to ascending volume pick up in June and July before its 700% 2 month move.
Internet everything is spiking, probably on the back of the Facebook IPO...be careful Jesse
ReplyDeleteDavid- MGIC looks great. One of you posted an eps progression for it. Great co.. To answer your question, port up somewhere in that ballpark. I try not to monitor where I am ytd etc. as it can cause me to hesitate at times from a psychological perspective.
ReplyDeleteTOF- LNKD, GOOG, GRPN, P all look really good. Internet sector looking sweet.
ReplyDeleteHDSN - It looks like the refrigerant recycling industry just got a booster shot:
ReplyDelete"(EPA) has issued “No Action Assurance” letters to importers and producers of Hydrochlorofluorocarbon-22 (HCFC-22) that reduces the amount of HCFC-22 that can be manufactured and/or imported in 2012 by approximately 45% from the amount allowed to be produced and/or imported in 2011. "
Glad I bought 60lb of R-22 last year.....
ReplyDeleteMy rule of thumb has always been to buy big a heavily oversold market after the first round of earnings disappoint.
ReplyDeleteConversely, sell big a heavily overbought market after the first round of earnings are met w/ enthusiasm. We still have a ton of earnings to come.
long Dang Damn.
ReplyDeleteThe majority of my watch list is green by a decent amount...I think this market has more room to run
ReplyDeleteQPSA wow
ReplyDeleteJesse, your YTD results suck :). NOW its time to get them REALLY going! So don't hesitate! :)
ReplyDeleteDANG me again.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.paragonreport.com/dang
Out TVIX -.20. Could waterfall into close. Not liking Facebook IPO.
ReplyDeleteTime for a pause?
"CAT Beats Estimates, Sees Robust 2012"
"EMC earnings surge on strong storage demand"
"There's No Reason Intel Won't Contine to Surge"
"Intel Sweeps Record Earnings into Coffers, Anticipates Robust 2012"
"AAPL Delivers Blowout Earnings on Back of Mammoth-Sized Iphone Sales"
BBH rsi 80
XAL rsi 76
SOX rolling under 70
BBH rsi 78
DJ chemicals rsi 75
DJ computer hardware rsi 75
Coals look simply awesome as a group.
ReplyDeleteThe Portuguese 10-year bonds are making new highs every day, north of 15% already:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPT10YR:IND
Why is no one talking about it? And why is TED spread making new lows every day (including today) DESPITE the situation in Portugal deteriorating? Did the banks already sell their Portuguese bonds to ECB?
I suppose the markets are busy cheering the drop in French, Spanish and Italian yields...
ReplyDeleteSince AUMN has a positive correlation with silver in 2012, I figured I have enough exposure to silver already, and so I just sold at $7.30 my remaining 3 April $26 calls on SLV that I purchased at $6.15 in December. Still keeping my SVM and GDXJ calls.
ReplyDeleteNow, for risk diversification purposes, I just bought 10 April $5 calls on MITK at $3.90. I am paying extra 20c relative to its spot price, but I am using twice less money (comparing to buying 1K shares outright), which is important since I am buying it on margin.
Well CSTR finally broke out. Same with SKUL
ReplyDeletewhat a boring day.
ReplyDelete7 trading days right around the 1,315 level...this market is just building up strength for another move higher.
ReplyDeleteCheck this out gentlemen- very, very interesting:
ReplyDeleteThe 30 day sma has been the line in the sand for JRCC, ACI, and PCX in the coal space.
JRCC is the best example.
It continues to gap above and below it. When it doesn't gap, the 30 day has been very stiff resistance or support.
But here is the kicker per stockcharts.com-
JRCC 30 day sma: 6.88
ACI 30 day sma: 14.51
PCX 30 day sma: 8.54
Take a wild guess where every single one of them closed today. You can't make this stuff up.
Long some JRCC and a little ACI at the close (in light of AAPL and VIX)
Per analyst reports I'm reading, the coal space is doomed due to the low natty price. Should natty continue upwards (u know my bias), coal names should be highly leveraged.
ReplyDeleteJesse, I would separate BTU from the rest of the coal pack since more than half of its production goes outside of USA (at least this was the case a couple of years ago). How is Chinese demand for coal looking right now?
ReplyDeleteFor those of you looking for long-term investments. I'm pretty sure that 3d printing stocks will make major parabolic moves over the next 1-2 years.
ReplyDeleteFor those that are not too familiar w/ the space, 3d printers can
-"print" new teeth- like the 20-40 different aligners you might need w/ invisalign.
-print moulds for prototypes for any industry
-the military is already using them for spare parts in the field
-bioprinting for spare organs in the body
-print a new plate on demand if junior throws one against the wall.
-print a new faucet head on demand should you be unable to turn off broken valve.
-customize virtually any consumer product per your criteria - instant "Crox" etc.
-car spare parts - dealers would need much smaller inventory.
-edible customized treats using granulated sugar cartridges- lollipops etc.
This will be big. The investor hype will be much bigger.
Most will play the printer companies, but I'm not so sure. Printing companies come and go. Its a commodity. Me thinks it will be the software companies who design the code. I.E. The next Microsoft.
I'll need to dig further, but the only 2 that I know of are SSYS and ADSK.
Folks, why not load up on AA now (or AA calls, for adventurous souls)? AA has already broken out above its late November peak, and the aluminum spot price is already trading at the best level since October 4. AA will definitely hit $12 in a couple of months, and $16 is not out of the question by the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteJuly $8 calls give you a lot of leverage (in case AA runs above $12) and are trading now with a minimal premium to the spot price (a few weeks ago I purchased 10 July $8 calls on AA at $2.10). If AA runs to $13 by the summer time, then the calls purchased today will double... So put a few grands into those calls and let them ride till July...
ReplyDeleteHoly DANG! And to think I had a 250% position size in it lol.
ReplyDeleteIts all about long, low bases w/ ass pinching bolinger bands.
Me thinks DJUSCL could be next.
There are still many, many out there even in the face of a pullback.
Stuff like TBSI have 400% 1 month gains written all over them.
Forgot, I picked up another "long baser" b4 the close (just a few k)- VALV
ReplyDeleteThis is REALLY funny.
I got both a call and an urgent email from my broker last week for "manipulating the market and taking on excessive risk" The voicemail stated that they would have to notify the SEC if it continued:)
"We encourage you to be diligent in learning the essential facts relative to the securities held in your account...... It's important that your investment strategy remain consistent with your investment objectives...On occasion, clients inadvertently adopt a strategy that may violate trading regulations...- Creating or inducing a false, misleading or artificial appearance of activity in a security.
- Unduly or improperly influencing the market price of a security.
- Making a price that does not reflect the true state of the market in a security.
- Trades which result in no change in beneficial ownership.
- Pre-arranged trading with other parties
- An aggressive investment strategy that is generally not appropriate for someone with a low risk tolerance, limited investing experience, or limited resources.
- Concentrating your positions in low-priced securities, which pose special risks for investors because they often experience wide price fluctuations, sometimes have unproven track records, and may have lower liquidity than other stocks. Investors who are concentrated in low-priced equities are susceptible to experiencing substantial loss over a short period of time.
- Investment portfolios that are concentrated in a single security are more volatile than those that are diversified among a set of securities. Consequently, clients with a concentrated position in a single security are susceptible to experiencing a substantial loss over a short period of time.
WTF 3d printers?
ReplyDeleteFunny I was looking at VALV and JRCC last night. I also like RLD, MOTR, SQNS.
well I shouldn't say like but i like their charts: RLD, MOTR, SQNS
ReplyDeleteDJ Coal index bolinger bands are the tightest since April 2009.
ReplyDeleteThe index went from 150 to 255 in 6 weeks.
Gun to head, I would guess ACI sees 23 and JRCC sees 11-12 w/in 6 weeks based solely on the tightening charts. I could dig up 200 "reports" suggesting they decline from here. I live and die by charts which far more often than not tell the real story.
Ultimately tells me that natty will truly soar and I will be leaving a ton of money on the table. All is fine as long as I can sleep at night....
TOF, the RLD chart indeed looks interesting. If one buys it now with a stop at $8.50, then one can get a HUGE upside for a minimal downside risk. I just placed a buy stop limit order for 500 shares at $9.15/$9.20 and a buy limit for 500 shares at $8.90. Let's see which one of them gets triggered on Monday. :)
ReplyDeleteTOF-
ReplyDeleteRLD chart is best I've seen since DANG and IRE. Unfortunately, they report next week. Not sure if I want to bite quite yet. It'll probably pop though.
Just reading ACI CSFB report.
ReplyDeleteHas 75-80% coal priced for 2012. EPS of $2.90 w/ 3% divy. I could care less if WLT or BTU missed by a few cents and shut down a couple factories.
Based strictly on valuation, these suckers could soar.
The longer they frustrate us and remain in a base, the bigger the breakout will be.
Can't believe how cheap some of these coal stocks are.
ReplyDeleteJRCC
$6.88
Book value - $14
Enterprise value - $17
Cash - $6
Geez
All right, just placed a buy stop limit for 1000 shares of JRCC at $7.02/$7.05, just above the peaks it was making since Jan 17. If bought, will place a sell stop at $6.40, just below the lows it was making since Jan 17.
ReplyDeleteSince August 2012, JRCC shows a perfect descending wedge with a slightly rising base -- a textbook setup for a large upside breakout...
ReplyDeleteJesse - "I got both a call and an urgent email from my broker last week for "manipulating the market and taking on excessive risk" "
ReplyDeleteSurely they were attempting to contact JPM/GS and reached you by mistake!
Jesse- That is really funny bro!
ReplyDeleteTOF- Maybe it is Chase??
ReplyDelete"Eileen Leveckis, a spokesperson for JPMorgan Chase, said the bank's QuickDeposit feature is extremely popular with customers and "figures prominently" in the bank's marketing strategy.
Badarinath said checks deposited by mobile devices have a 99 percent acceptance rate. Most rejections occur because of shadows on the image, wrinkled checks or duplicate deposits made when customers don't believe they did it correctly.
Badarinath predicts that mobile deposit technology will spread to tablets with cameras, such as iPads. Image-capturing technology will continue to take the place of paper-based payments. In the future, customers may be able to take a picture of a bill, then a check to pay that bill. People may also be able to pay taxes with mobile devices, Badarinath said." 1/27/2012.
Well, I would have to agree with the 'excessive risk' call- although it's kind of like someone warning Bruce Lee there's a rough crowd in that part of town. 'Manipulating the market?' How many freaking calls did you buy, bro?
ReplyDeleteAlthough it seems strange to take a picture of a check also. Why can't it just be a transfer from your acct.?
ReplyDeleteI see I missed yet another opportunity in DANG. Can't say I'm wasting my time, though- watching stocks like DANG and IRE explode up the right side of bases has been a learning experience. Confidence comes with pattern recognition.
ReplyDelete2nd - I'm willing to bet that that is in lieu of the CLNT trade.
ReplyDeleteMark - Who is Badarinath? I believe its Chase as well.
Here's a theory- jesse shares a personality trait with Jesse Livermore, one that allows both to sit tight under circumstances no ordinary man would be able to withstand.
ReplyDeleteYikes, I read that wrong. From the same article but the paragraph above...
ReplyDelete"Niti Badarinath, director of mobile banking at U.S. Bank, would not disclose the number of customers using the bank's mobile check deposit service, but he said he was surprised at the rapid growth in adoption among customers, and the dollar amounts of checks being deposited.
The bank rolled out mobile deposits in the first quarter of 2011, initially serving the iPhone, and eventually launching apps for BlackBerry and Android devices. Badarinath said that by December 2011, more deposits were being made by mobile devices than by desktop computers, and the amounts are as high as checks being deposited by desktop.
"We thought people would tend to use their phone camera for smaller checks," he said. "I think this points to a rising comfort level. Instead of $60 or $70 checks, they're using their phones to deposit checks for hundreds, even thousands of dollars."
WTF, jesse. I bought 520 shares of TVIX based on your 1128 am post, and now I find out you bailed at 1221? ---- me! Or should I say DANG me!
ReplyDelete2nd - I think IRE has a lot more room to run...I bet it has another push to $8 in it.
ReplyDeleteI think the best CHARTS i can find with long bases are RLD, SQNS, JRCC, ANW, VALV, IRE
Just kidding, man. I read both posts, and still decided to take a flyer.
ReplyDeleteYou're right, tof. Had I simply bought 2-3k shares each of IRE and DANG two weeks ago and just left them alone, it would have made my month.
ReplyDeleteYou know, when it comes to trading, we're all handicapped. Whether by the 3-day settlement rule, the mutual funds only restriction for workplace retirement accounts, or by excessive trading violations. Not to mention the order flow/inside information advantages available to brokerages. It's just totally ----ed up.
ReplyDelete"You know, when it comes to trading, we're all handicapped. Whether by the 3-day settlement rule, the mutual funds only restriction for workplace retirement accounts, or by excessive trading violations. Not to mention the order flow/inside information advantages available to brokerages. It's just totally ----ed up."
ReplyDelete2nd - The amount of manipulation in the market is un freaking believable. I know because I worked on hedge funds and I saw this shit first hand. Those effers would all get together with other managers and share ideas and then secretly agree to drive stocks up or down (usually down so they could make money shorting and then going long). I had one client that was HUGE (as in trillions under management) that had 2 funds in part of a fund family: one was a bond fund and one was an equity fund. In 2007/8 the bond fund would buy the shit out of the CDSs of banks, making the stocks drop, while the equity fund would short their stock. It was unbelievable. I wrote the SEC, the president, congressman...it all fell on deaf ears.
So we have to think of our advantages:
(1) We're small and nimble
(2) We don't have to worry about quarterly returns or annual returns in fear if losing our jobs
(3) If we don't use leverage we won't have to worry about clients calling us at the worst time to take money back.
(4) If we research a story well enough, we can just wait until panic hits the street, ignore the rumors and when the stock price has gotten totally out of whack from reality just buy the shit out of it.
TOF-
ReplyDeleteIRE should continue to do well. It has great fundys to support 10-15 easy.
2nd- Its really tough to hold a position like that. Really, really tough to just function.
When I have such conviction in a trade, the last thing I want to do is watch the market or be on this board. The more data I see, the more opinions I read, and the more "great setups" I see, the greater the chance that I dump a position that I have 100% conviction in.
Aside from being on the road, that's the reason why at times I don't watch the market or visit this board for long stretches of time.
As most here here can attest, by far and away the biggest gains for us have been those entries where you close your eyes, sit on your hands, and trust your judgement 100% even when the position has already moved substantially in your favor..... Given all the research I/we posted on this board regarding the chart and underlying fundys, I think we can all say DANG! to what I said above.
Thanks for sharing. It does appear that the end justifies the means. Buying the shit out of the end result is likely as close as we'll get to kicking the shit out of the means creators.
ReplyDeletejesse- I hear you re blinding yourself to opinions. Holding a large position leaves you at the mercy of even stray sentences. You're right- take a position you believe in, and damn the torpedoes.
ReplyDeleteI meant to add earlier that I like to see highly volatile "shakouts" at tops and bottoms where the stock price goes all over the place for 5 sessions or so w/out going anywhere. This tends to shake everyone out long and short.
ReplyDeleteFor example:
JRCC
Down 15%
flat
up 5%
down 5%
up 8%
down 7%
up 7%
gigantic 1 day bar down 3%
up 3% today
If you pull up a 10 day chart, its exactly where it was 10 days ago 15 minutes after the open w/ by far and away the majority of the trading over 10 days taking place within 10 cents of 6.75.