Friday, January 27, 2012
1/28/12 After The Goldrush
I dreamed I saw the silver
Space ships flying
In the yellow haze of the sun
There were children crying
And colors flying
All around the chosen ones
All in a dream, all in a dream
The loading had begun
They were flying Mother Nature's
Silver seed to a new home in the sun
Flying Mother Nature's
Silver seed to a new home
Virtually no trades for the past four weeks. That's OK. We all have periods of quiescence, not least while asleep, during which the psyche repairs broken dreams, assimilates information, and prepares to take flight to new destinations.
Great trades these past several weeks, guys. I have no doubt I'll look back in eleven months and realize the seeds of the year's gains were planted while watching price movements of stocks being traded by TT blogmates in January.
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I always loved this song but had no freaking clue what it was about. But then just now reading the lyrics I realized I heard different words. Now it makes sense. Thanks for posting them.
ReplyDeleteSo while DANG made a 100% move in the past month, I wonder how many people bought the $5.00 calls for what was presumably a $0.10 ask and rode them to $3.30 today. Even a $2k bet on that can make a salary for someone.
Team i think you always focused on the. "I felt like getting high" line.
ReplyDeleteDang can't worry about the past. There could be a 100% move from today's prices. the two month cup formation with 7.50 as the lip is morphing into a bigger 5 month cup base with 10.50 ish as the lip. Of coarse i see a scar on my face when I chant "I killed your baby Mary Worth" 10 times into the mirror of my bathroom.
RB - Wilco was on Conan the other day...just watched a replay of it.
ReplyDeleteDang: As I look at the chart and where it came from, I think 10.50 or so is an easy target.
ReplyDeleteI've made enough to not worry about it and add on any pullbacks.
If it makes it through 10.50 to 15.00 it's an easy jaunt to 19.00 - 20.
At 19-20 there is some more serious resistance, but that would be a four bagger for those who got in around $5 and it would right around a 50% fib retracement.
Interestingly, the ranges of resistance correspond with a fib retracement figure.
11.47 is 23.60%
16.28 is the bottom of a large gap down, 20.00 is the 50% retrace, and 23.86 is the bottom of the top range of resistance at 61.80% retracement.
50% doesn't seem unreasonable to me, which would be $20.
I generally don't pay any attention to Fibonacci (I would just eyeball the resistance/support) but I know some technical traders do and it fits pretty nicely into the resistance and gap levels of DANG.
There is a 1 hour Dave Letterman sponsored show that has the same arrangement of songs as their current tour.( More avant garde then say kicking television). Also sound quality is great unlike many vids. They are just getting better and better.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbs.com/late_night/late_show/video/?pid=EzLvZGC_wLsXTCMfUDemFYK9lc8iVtbs
Enjoy on your large HD screen with the little one at 2:00 am. In many ways as good as being there live with the bonus of a 6er a couple steps away.
DANG! $16.28 is the price in the middle of the large gap down but it is also the 38.20 fib retracement.
ReplyDeleteIt just about exactly in the center of the gap. It is amazing how this stuff works out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjwI9Oz0yl0&feature=related
CC
ReplyDeleteI find Fibs are real useful on parabolic charts in trying to figure out stop placement and targets because really what else do you have as a point of reference? And yes it is amazing how often they are pivot areas. I fully expect Dang to retrace 50 % of today's move and if it does and holds might be a time to add more.
http://idc.api.edgar-online.com/efx_dll/edgarpro.dll?FetchFilingConvPDF1?SessionID=Muw7FooUg9047IS&ID=8081061
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000029496
For you guys that follow the Fast Money crowd...check out the links above. I remember that the Karen Finerman chick and her hedge fund took a 15% stake in the company NM back in the crash in August. Well, the stock hasn't really done much. But if you look at it closer you will see some very interesting stuff going on:
(1) the company is a dry bulk shipper (ugh, but at the same time stock prices are waaaaay down and the sector is picking up)
(2) the company is profitable and has been profitable every year for the past 5 years despite a rough environment
(3) they're trading at 1/3 x book
(4) the thing people don't realize: they have a logistics business that is growing pretty steadily now and there is a chance that this division gets spun off. In q3 2011, the logistics division did $68.8 Million in revenues (24% growth over last year) and $8.9 Million EBITDA (vs $8.4 Million last year). That division alone could be spun off and trade at 15 to 20 times earnings (ECHO is the only comparable and it trades at 30 times earnings). That would value that business at over double the current market cap.
(5) the best part: the company pays a 6.6% dividend and has done so for 6 years now.
I think this could easily double based on just current earnings and the logistics division growing over time. If they split off the logistics division this could triple and continue paying you a 6.6% dividend.
It's not as exciting as the other stocks we're trading here but I think it's a great income investment with significant upside potential.
LOL! I expect it too. I did lighten up some at the close and will add if it pulls back, which I suspect it will. If not I still have a position and will just wait. I think you are right, 10 seems doable and 20 isn't out of the question.
ReplyDeleteNNA: Pays .20 on a $3 stock, that's 6.67% I like the chart and will like it more as the base slides to the right and intercepts the 200 dma. It could be just as exciting and pay over 6% too.
Sometimes boring is good.
So wadda we lookin' at heah?
ReplyDeleteNM or NNA? They's twos of da same ting.
Yous showed us an Edga from NNA and gave us da ticka NM.
NM is $3.69 and pay .24 and NNA is 2.99 and pays .20
NNA is the acquisition company and NM is the holding company.
I smell a tax ploy. One company that leases to itself.
TOF, look at the chart of the Edgar you linked, NNA. Better chart, better div.
ReplyDeleteFREE: shipper. Best shipping chart out there. No doubt it will head North 125 % w/in 4 weeks. Does it matter? Not so much. Avg. volume is under $5,000 per day.
ReplyDeleteLooking at these solars. All of them. They're gonna double again. And maybe double AGAIN after that later this year.
Tier 1:HSOL, SOL, CSIQ
Tier 2: WFR, TSL, JASO
Big Daddy: FSLR
Pull up a 5 year chart of WFR. At the bottom of a cup. Gonna run right back up to 16 plus over the next 12 to 18 months. No doubt in my mind. 12-18 months? Who has time for that? DANG'll do that in 2.
Btw- Way to go CC. Awesome hold!
Starting to think that I'm wasting my time w/ plays like Coal. The risk/reward isn't quite there for this market. All stocks can get hammered by terrible news and go to zero in a heartbeat.
ReplyDeleteLet's say coals (best case) have 75% upside and 100% downside over 6 weeks.
There's just so many microcaps w/ long bases that have 3-800% upside and 100% downside in the same timeframe.
I should just buy a basket of FREE, TBSI, VALV, CLNT, DPTRQ, SMSI etc. and sit on my hands.
We are in the midst of a once or twice in a decade market. This is nothing like the '09 market. That was 100% mean reversion w/ huge downside risk after the pops. This is all about buying stocks coming out of strong long term bases which provide huge upside w/ very little risk due to the nature of the bases.
So,I really should be looking for better R/R setups.
Having said that, the indicators are telling me that we get a swift selloff sometime very soon so no matter what I enter would most likely stop out. When markets get this easy, its probably time to take a vacation and just wait 2 to 4 weeks for the next round of setups.
ReplyDeleteAnd I HATE the last 2 days of the month after a big monthly bar. There's always tons of volatility especially the last day depending on where they want to close it. I remember a string of 4 or 5 last day's of the month last year that all saw 50 plus Nasdaq declines:(
ReplyDeleteSMSI is a pick.
ReplyDeleteENER, HIMX, SOL, STP, HSOL
These are all essentially the same charts, transitions off of bases with minimal downside and a lot of upside. Because this pattern is watched for it will drag a lot of people in and allow us to set stops early so we limit the downside even more and then set it and forget it, trail and scale.
Sounds like a plan Jesse.
Agreed. Low VIX, hi RSI's, forging into overhead, overbought...as long as we stay above the Jan low I think we are good. Although judging by the action the last couple days we may just walk it off sideways. The nature of the correction is important.
ReplyDeleteThat was the pattern before the latest move, so chances are we go back to a range.
BTW, the solar etf TAN contains a lot of the names mentioned although it is weighted to FSLR.
Same chart...
The catalyst for Dangs move as well as sohu, sina, Bidu ren and pretty much the entire Internet space was made crazy stupid by the Facebook announcement. This could be just the start of crazy bubblicious valuations in the whole space. Remember the wake google caused? Facebook is bigger. I am looking at old friend Redf as a possible candidate for bubbliciousness.
ReplyDeleteHere is an excerpt from today's article about Solar (http://seekingalpha.com/article/322778-solar-panel-makers-see-demand-moving-east?source=yahoo):
ReplyDelete"Chinese panel makers like JA Solar (JASO), Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Solar (YGE) feel confident they will see a doubling of demand in their home market this year, to 4 Gwatts of capacity. That's out of a total global demand that could be as low as 30 Gwatts (according to Bloomberg) or as much as 35 Gwatts (according to Trina).
This will be good news for those who buy solar ETFs like KWT and TAN, which lost over half their value in the last year. The ETFs are dominated by big Chinese solar players, and last year's plunge in prices (as much as 47% by some estimates) resulted in many panels being "dumped" into other markets, which nearly killed the U.S. industry."
The charts of TAN and KWT show that any little push up at this point will imply a real upside breakout. So let's watch these charts closely on Monday...
And TAN also pays 8.5% dividends???
ReplyDeleteJust placed a buy stop limit for 2000 shares of TAN at $3.30/$3.33. If executed, will place a sell stop at $2.9.
ReplyDeleteI just took another look at the 2-year chart for MGIC and was struck by the symmetry of its peaks and valleys. It is making a huge cup now, with the top of the left side made in Feb 2011 and the right side being built now. The 1-month chart shows a small cup-and-handle being made now as well.
ReplyDeleteThe chart gives me the feeling that a run up to $7 should happen any time now, followed by a pullback to low 6's, a stabilization there, and then a run up to $8. So I just placed a buy stop limit for 1000 shares at $6.33/$6.35. If purchased, will place a stop at $6.
lots of insider selling in rld on friday. however piper jaffray issued a buy with $22 pt (yep 133% higher). earnings coming up. i say it gaps down into resistance and we buy
ReplyDeleteReally thinking that we get a large gap down Monday morning given the extremes. Definitely some time Monday-Wednesday given the size of the monthly bar for the indexes.
ReplyDeleteThe premise for the coal trade is a Gap and go at the open on Monday. Anything less, and I'm out as quickly as I can press "market".
Conversely, we could see a 35-40 point thrust in the Nasdaq on Monday setting up for a month-end sell-off on Tuesday. If this were to happen, AAPL would close 4 consecutive sessions outside its bolinger band which has never happened. Remember my previous post that every time this has happened in its history, it has sold off 10-25%+ w/in 5-8 sessions. This would not be pretty for the market.
jesse id be shocked to see a big gap down monday...im about 75% cash but my thinking is gap up if we gap. i think there are lots of people pressing shorts here and others waiting for pullbacks which is why i dont see much more than a few percent selloffs this year if any. last year we had so much crap thrown at this mkt yet it finished flat. if europe issues really go by the wayside (key is watching those italy spain bond spreads whcih still show series of higher lows and highs - if they take out the lows from last summer then game on) then thats a huge lift to this mkt.
ReplyDeleteim eyeing cedc on a european play should those yields show proof that top is in.
TOF-
ReplyDeleteYou're probably right. I keep getting nervous when I look at AAPL, NDX, and the VIX.
But when I look at SPX, DJIA, and EEM, they've more or less been basing for the past 7 sessions and the DOW has burned off some steam by slowly trading down 200 points the past 2 sessions.
OK, OK....Dow 12,900 by the close on Monday:)
But I reserve the right to change my mind by dinner time:)
Actually, a reasonable continuation for S&P going forward would be a drop to 1300 on Monday morning (which is a small drop, actually), shaking out all weak hands who placed stops at the lows of the past 7 sessions, and then a reversal to new highs, going straight up to 1350.
ReplyDeleteMost of the orders I placed for Monday are buy stop limit orders, so a gap down on Monday would actually work well for me (it the indices are still down by the time I wake up, then I might buy MGIC at a lower price).
Interesting read...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/stock-market-sock-market-history-stock/1/27/2012/id/39064
interesting article mark. makes you wonder what the big themes would be if that were to occur.
ReplyDeletethat got me to reading minyanville...get a load of this load of crap:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/jeff-cooper-jeff-cooper-market-report/1/4/2012/id/38666?page=2
Pure gibberish.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Well, he's sure got it all covered ;)
ReplyDeleteChina audit season opens:
ReplyDeletehttp://chinaaccountingblog.com/weblog/china-audit-season-opens.html
China - Keeping in mind the theme that revolves around the VIE structure, and since the validity of a business model ultimately lies in essence, on the ability of the company to return wealth in some form, to shareholders.
ReplyDeleteRecently, SVM (a Canadian company) reported a $43M dividend payment from the Hunan Found subsidiary, which was then promptly deposited into their Canadian bank account.
Wheel of price and time. Really love the tool, but does not take into consideration the declinations due to magnetic north depending on what market you play. In Tucson it is off by 9 degrees. Up in San fran I believe Declination is off by 12 degrees. Please take this into consideration before using the wheel to place your bets.
ReplyDeleteInteresting stuff....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wallstreetrant.com/2012/01/who-owns-worlds-financial-assets-and.html
From Barrons:
ReplyDeleteAs of Friday's close, the Standard & Poor's 500 was up 4.7% this year. Since 1953, nine prior years had a 4% or greater gain through Jan. 23. In each, the index finished positive, with further gains over the remaining 11 months, with one important exception: 1987, when stocks sprinted out of the gate by more than 11%, continued rallying into the summer, then crashed, though did limp to a full-year positive return.
In the eight other years when January's first weeks added 4% or more, the full-year market gains ranged from 11.5% to 45%.
What's magic about that 4% three-week threshold? Not a thing, but history is history.
The 10 Books that Screwed up the World:
ReplyDeletehttp://listverse.com/2008/05/14/10-books-that-screwed-up-the-world/
TOF- Pretty interesting. I guessed 3 of them.
ReplyDeleteThe write up on Dr. Spock is inaccurate, especially the final sentence or so.
ReplyDeleteThe part about moving away from discipline is true in that he did so, but in favor of what we now know to be true of classic conditioning which we use to teach autistic kids (and all animals) but conveniently forget when it comes to everyone else.
I also find it highly amusing how we used eugenics to develop animal agriculture, poultry, beef, egg, dairy, fruit and vegetable production, but if applied to humans it is somehow evil. Yet we now look to eugenics, genetic modification/engineering, stem cells and other similar tools to liberate humans from some pretty serious diseases. An example might be two parents having genes that produce a fatal illness in their child. Would this knowledge be good or bad? Eugenics it is. I use it frequently in dogs, yet used in another way it would be criminal.
I see no one signed on as author of this list. Most of the books obviously belong, a couple could be debated. I'm not sure about the Prince, I doubt Machiavelli gave Stalin or Hitler any ideas severe mental illness didn't.
Offed the TVIX premarket at 17.6x. I only had 520 shares at a basis of slightly under 17. So basically just a two-puff nicotine high.
ReplyDeleteDon Coxe, Chief strategist over at BMO, turning more positive on the market and recommending increasing exposure to equities by 9%, 6% - 8% in US equities.
ReplyDeleteThe key here is:
1. Markets are turning up
2. The economy is improving (Coxe identifies money supply growth, TED spread compression, Regional Bank Stocks - KRE - or real banks as he calls them and now increasing Copper prices)
3. Jobs are getting better
4. The top-down guys like Coxe and Hussman, who David talked about before, are becoming more bullish and directing more funds into equities.
These macro guys tend to miss turning points, but ride the long term trends, so if they now see a good longer term economy, they are going to be chasing prices higher and we will continue to see markets rise.
Coxe is one of the original commodity bulls from early 2000's and is still bullish on commodities for 2012 and sees PM stocks finally outperforming PM's this year.
nice call on the gap down Jesse...gotta say i don't mind seeing it.
ReplyDeleteAdded another DECK at $81.1. I'm thinking this will bounce hard soon. Plus the trade is low risk: stop out below $78.
ReplyDeletesorry added another 500...avg is now 82.1
ReplyDeleteAdded another 5 x DECK Feb $85 calls at $1.95
ReplyDeleteGo get-um TOF!!
ReplyDeleteMark - MITK hit that 200 DMA but I didn't bite just yet. Waiting for the close. Ideally I'd like to see a close right around it and then a bounce and I'll probably hop in.
ReplyDeleteWow what a turnaround for WWW. I think DECK follows suit.
ReplyDeleteWow NLS! Wish I had the nerve to buy at $1.5. That thing could go to $6 or higher.
ReplyDeletethis could get ugly for bears if this momentum gains.
ReplyDeleteMark - The $85 calls on DECK could be one of the better speculations I have seen in a while. I honestly think this thing could hit $100 very quickly. That would be a 7 bagger over current prices. I'm only sitting with a $4k position because of the risk of options but this stock just looks poised to run hard.
ReplyDeleteSimilar setup in the daily chart on DECK as MITK a couple of weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteAny of you guys follow AIS? That is one impressive rebound.
ReplyDeleteLOV is a nice chart...dating site...they own ChristianMingle.com. DATE (Chinese internet dating site) is starting to get pick up too.
ReplyDelete10 books: Surely one of them was written by Erma Bombeck?
ReplyDeleteis anyone here familiar with SIFY? i know REDF got a lot of play on a growing internet user base in India, but isn't SIFY kind of like the Verizon of India? they're laying down undersea cables to facilitate rapid growth in internet / video / etc...
ReplyDeletehttp://eon.businesswire.com/news/eon/20120111005609/en/Sify-Technologies-Limited/Mr.-Raju-Vegesna/Mr.-Ahmed-Mekky
Looks like "a reasonable continuation for S&P going forward" (as I suggested on Saturday morning) is taking place: a drop by S&P below 1300 on Monday morning followed by a reversal above 1300. Now we just need a straight surge to 1350 to complete that scenario. :)
ReplyDeleteDuring the morning drop, my buy limit for 500 shares of RLD was triggered at $8.9, and then after RLD reversed, the buy stop for 500 more shares was triggered at $9.15. Let's see if it turns into a multi-bagger...
TAN had a nice little "trend knockout" this morning, and so I have lowered my buy stop order to $3.2/$3.23, as I think if TAN rises above Friday's close, it will surely break $3.3 and then surge upwards.
My other two buy stops: on JRCC at $7.02 and MGIC at $6.33 did not get triggered yet. I'll think what to do about them...
Oh, and one more thing -- sorry for crashing MITK through its support by buying some calls on it on Friday...
10 books: Women are Venus, Men are from Mars. Worse than Mein Kampf.
ReplyDeleteReal money, Jim Cramer
Atlas Shrugged, Ayn Rand....lead to the largest single theft of wealth in history.
Could Merkel be Hitler's illegitimate child?
ReplyDelete"Men are from Mars, Women are from Venus" -- I actually liked that book a lot and learned a lot of it about the psychology of women...
ReplyDelete"Atlas Shrugged" -- enjoyed that one a lot too. What "largest single theft of wealth in history" are you talking about, Craig?
Haven't read "Real Money" yet...
RLD is set on shaking me out of my position...
ReplyDeleteCP- No, she's legitimate.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I read Atlas Shrugged also. I don't get the theft take also but didn't say anything cause I figured I was just too dumb!
ReplyDeleteThe Portuguese yields jumped 3bp today to 17.4%. That's not good. We have another Greece coming up...
ReplyDeletePer my rules, dumped coals at the open for a loss.
ReplyDeletePicking up PEIX
-Down 5 sessions in a row after hitting 200 day for the first time.
-$1.05 was pricing for secondary.
-Company stake in plant production increased from 20 to 34% in December.
-Signed a management agreement w/ Zeachem after the last q's close.
-EBITDA $3 million last quarter
TOF- You sent me an email a while back about their .12 eps last quarter. 100% of the earnings were attributed to a 1 time non-cash gain for the adjustment of fair market of warrants and notes. Am I missing something here?
that weekly chart in NLS looks fantastic. Series of higher lows throughout. It has officially broken out of its soft stage and with the fundamental news that came out last week I think this could really really run. i may have to get back in.
ReplyDeleteJesse - I think the fundy play on PEIX is their rapid growth in revs...you could totally be right about the EPS. there is some massive dilution going on with that which is why keeps me on the sidelines.
ReplyDeleteThe morning's low for MGIC was $6. So I suppose we already got our trend knockout today, and the next move should be higher...
ReplyDeleteDavid - I think you might be right on MGIC.
ReplyDeleteI think we're gonna get a gap up tomorrow in the markets if this rebound gains momentum.
I'm projecting NLS to do $0.10 to $0.14 EPS this past quarter and $0.08 to $0.12 for 2011. For turnaround stories that are taking hold, typically the first year that the company turns profitable again the stock trades at pretty crazy valuations relative to earnings. I've seen it all over the place but you usually see it in the 40's. That would peg it at around $4 or so for NLS, a nice gain over the current price.
ReplyDeleteQ4 is their best quarter of the year but it's a pretty impressive turnaround for this company. They have completely streamlined their business and now sales are finally starting to rebound on the back of improving consumer credit. Their new Treadclimber product seems to be doing well.
The balance sheet is pretty strong...I think they should be around $13 Million in Cash and about $5 Million in LT Debt.
If the company can continue growing and focusing on the cardio segment, which is doing much better, then this could return to the double digits over time. I'm hoping to get in around $2.20 but realize that this is just nitpicking if the stock gets to $6 or $10 in a couple of years.
The real issue is just being able to sit and hold the damn stock. NLS is so volatile its insane. And I always tend to rationalize that I've made much better returns trading in and out of stocks than buying and holding so what's the point? I'll probably end up doing the same on NLS and just pass..
ReplyDeletePEIX at low of monthly range in 3 month bull flag on declining monthly volume.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't surprise me if tomorrow they closed it at a mid-month value around 1.16.
Folks, watch MITK closely now. If it pushes up another 10c to $8.70, we'll have a classic situation of a break below support, shakeout of all weak hands and then a reversal back above the support level. Such moves almost always are followed by an upward surge...
ReplyDeleteThe downside to NLS is competition, though. From what I'm putting together, gross margins continue to get hurt:
ReplyDeleteHere are gross margins over the past 2 years by quarter; lots of variability but you can see the trend is down:
q3 2011 q2 2011 q1 2011 q4 2010 q32010 q2 2010 q1 2010
42.24% 41.88% 45.73% 44.13% 43.19% 43.96% 50.31%
David - I still want to see a close around the 200DMA on MITK and then a bounce.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 500 shares of MGIC at $6.26, so as to make sure that I have some in case it gaps up tomorrow above my buy stop limit order at $6.33/$6.35.
ReplyDeleteJust bought 10 July $2 calls on TAN at $1.17 (placed a buy limit at the ask of $1.25 by the execution price was $1.17 for some reason)...
ReplyDeleteMITK is back in range! Pile into it, folks!
ReplyDeleteGreenspan was an Ayn Rand disciple and thought people would control their own greed. This resulted in his lax oversight as Fed chair, deregulation of banks and reduction of interest rates too long lead to the severe leverage of too much cheap capital seeking returns in everything from $700 trillion in derivatives to real estate. This is what crashed the system.
ReplyDeleteIf the book list can blame 50,000 baby deaths on Dr. Spock for advising parents to place their babies on their stomachs to sleep (the best info at the time) then surely Ayn Rand and her book Atlas Shrugged and the resulting actions of her disciple and friend Alan Greenspan are to blame for "The Great Recession", world wide crash and the trillions in losses of jobs, real estate, capital and the resulting debt.
"Greenspan was an Ayn Rand disciple"
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting, Craig -- I didn't know about that. This is an interesting anecdote to pass around...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan
ReplyDelete"In the early 1950s, Greenspan began an association with famed novelist and philosopher Ayn Rand.[40] Greenspan was introduced to Rand by his first wife, Joan Mitchell. Rand nicknamed Greenspan "the undertaker" because of his penchant for dark clothing and reserved demeanor. Although Greenspan was initially a logical positivist,[47] he was converted to Rand's philosophy of Objectivism by her associate Nathaniel Branden. He became one of the members of Rand's inner circle, the Ayn Rand Collective, who read Atlas Shrugged while it was being written. During the 1950s and 1960s Greenspan was a proponent of Objectivism, writing articles for Objectivist newsletters and contributing several essays for Rand's 1966 book Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal including an essay supporting the gold standard.[48][49] Rand stood beside him at his 1974 swearing-in as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Greenspan and Rand remained friends until her death in 1982.[40]
He has come under criticism from Harry Binswanger,[50] who believes his actions while at work for the Federal Reserve and his publicly expressed opinions on other issues show abandonment of Objectivist and free market principles. However, when questioned in relation to this, he has said that in a democratic society individuals have to make compromises with each other over conflicting ideas of how money should be handled. He said he himself had to make such compromises, because he believes that "we did extremely well" without a central bank and with a gold standard.[51] In a Congressional hearing on October 23, 2008, Greenspan admitted that his free-market ideology shunning certain regulations was flawed.[52] However, when asked about free markets and Rand's ideas in an interview on April 4, 2010, Greenspan clarified his stance on laissez faire capitalism and asserted that in a democratic society there could be no better alternative. He stated that the errors that were made stemmed not from the principle, but from the application of competitive markets in "assuming what the nature of risks would be."[53]
And, BTW, his excuse is pure horse pucky. A better alternative would have been regulation and oversight of "competitive markets" to protect those who's capital was being played on red 11 on Wall Street.
ReplyDeleteI guess I should add his book to the list....
Neat info CC. I'll work that into a drinking game!! :)
ReplyDeleteYPF... http://www.thestreet.com/story/11390272/10/thestreet-ratings-top-10-rating-changes.html
ReplyDeleteInteresting.
My boyfriend, as Mark likes to call him, says a bottom is in on Nat Gas:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/investment-strategies-investing-tips-apple-citrix/1/30/2012/id/39098
Added another 500 DECK at $81.77
ReplyDeleteEvery which way one looks at natural gas, THE bottom is in for natural gas.
ReplyDeleteThe question right now is whether or not it retests the low before rocketing higher.
natty and UNG are being pushed down by their 20dma's.
KOLD the inverse is bouncing off its 10 week moving avg. which could thrust it higher this week which would not bode well for natty.
Gosh, I would just love to get back in if it were to re-test. Time will tell.
CSTR=Monster
ReplyDeleteFolks, I hope you were watching MITK closely today, as I suggested this morning, and hopped into it when it crossed $8.70...
ReplyDeleteI was buying DANG at 7.98 and INVN at 15.50
ReplyDeleteI loaded all I had into MITK at $8.2 and sold at $8.9.
ReplyDeleteThen I bought DELL at $0.40 in 1990!
David - honestly, I'm still on the fence with MITK. I still want to see a close around the 200 DMA with a bounce afterward.
ReplyDelete"I loaded all I had into MITK at $8.2 and sold at $8.9"
ReplyDeleteAwesome, TOF! How did you catch $8.2? You should have urged all of us to do the same!
MITK- There still Fing with it, that's for sure.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Hopefully it's not a picket fence.
Or was it a joke, TOF?
ReplyDeleteRDN, EXM, IRE, PEIX, PRGN, IPSU, CIS. CIS chart says it may move big. I think its book value is 100-150% of current price.
ReplyDeleteDavid- TOF was joking.
ReplyDeleteJesse - CIS is on my watchlist too. RDN: man I didn't realize that pulled all the way back to $2.4.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Trading in hindsight is always easy huh!
CSTR: is it having a run up into earnings, only to be sold on the news? Or do we think the expectations were set very low for it after the last earnings, and if it did not lose many customers after raising price to $1.20, then it should have awesome earnings -- is that correct, TOF?
ReplyDeleteIf TOF had not mentioned buying DELL in 1990, then I would have totally believed his post, as both him and you, Mark, are perfectly capable of doing such a trade...
ReplyDeleteAdded another 500 to DECK at $81.5..starting to press it but I think this sucker is going to fly
ReplyDeleteFAZ - Anybody wanna bet against financials here?
ReplyDeleteDavid - I have a good friend that has 30k (yes, 30k) shares of CSTR. He bought them when I did at $45 and has held on throughout. Anyway, we were talking about it the other day and I really do think that all of the negatives in the stock are known at this point, which is why it's going up. The Durbin fees are known, the extended windows for new releases is known. I think lots of people have thrown in the towel on it. However, I told him that even with that given, the risk of holding through earnings is very high because you just don't know how the market will react to any hint whatsoever of bad news because sentiment around DVD rentals is so negative and the assumption is it's a dead business. I personally think CSTR will beat earnings pretty big but the market will only be willing to pay a max of 12 to 14 times earnings because of the fears about DVDs going away. That's why I decided to just ignore the stock.
ReplyDeleteANR: It may be worth a shot here. The 89 dma has contained the downtrend for months. Currently the 50 and 89 dma are together, if the price breaks above the 89 it will confirm the bulls have the upper hand for now. I prefer to trade ahead of the break rather than wait.
ReplyDeleteI do not see these coal stock falling another 100% as Jesse suggested could happen, but in case he is right, a well placed mental stop takes care of that scenario.
ANR considering
ISPU sure have killed that sugar stock
LINE ex div 3 FEB for you yield takers
BHI have a bid in lower
Markets a mixed bag here.
CSTR- And if they announce a deal regarding the swipe fee's????
ReplyDeleteVALV chart still interesting.
ReplyDelete$63 million in cash
No short term or long term debt
$10 million in A/R
CEO says will be cash flow positive going forward.
Market cap $28 million.
Crazy
Yet another 500 DECK at $81.1.
ReplyDeleteT3D- MDW?
ReplyDeleteCoal - Yeah, looks like we decided we won't use any electricity until the new NG turbines are fully installed and up to speed.
ReplyDeleteMark - EXACTLY man...that's a nice upside. My friend thinks that a digital partnership will benefit them but I think that's a big question market because you don't know the business model surrounding it. How much will they have to give away to remain relevant long term in the digital biz?
ReplyDeleteMDW - Maybe this thing goes to $1.80 after all...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteLooks to me like panic selling in DECK. I like these situations because the CEO stated that the company's sales were unaffected by warm weather, which is what people are fearful of, and he said that other lines of biz have been doing very well. He also said that their growth in Asia over the nenxt few years will be very strong.
ReplyDeleteI just added my final lot at $80.78. Now have 3000 shs...yeesh!
Mark, MDW equals languish, needs some sort of news. It's a waiting game or stay away. Positive overall, but what have you done for me lately?
ReplyDeleteWow. Another day outside of bolinger band for AAPL.
ReplyDeletePBY - Taking it off here...
ReplyDelete