Tuesday, July 31, 2012

07/31/12 Hussman's approach/ The fly in the ointment

Re Hussman- here's the thing. His market comments are sound, and from a (very) long term perspective, the confidence he places in his approach is unassailable. He plays the averages. The 'average' historical return under current market conditions just hasn't been good. So what's the problem, mi amigo? Any gambler can answer that question. I answered that question on this blog the day I 'blew' $500 over 3 hours betting on reversion to the mean at the craps table. Three freaking hours of seven-outs? ----ing A, bro. Probably the best $500 I ever spent. Here's to another seven-out.
Posted by at

101 comments:

  1. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2012 at 4:54 PM

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/proof-positive-it-pays-to-trade-the-fed-2012-07-31?link=MW_TD

    Whoa!

    'The chart compiled by the New York Fed shows that about half of the S&P 500 return is related to the FOMC action.'

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2012 at 5:05 PM

    What we need in August is for Bernanke, Draghi, and Beijing to get their shit together and make a concerted once-and-for-all-don't------with-the-Fed/ECB/Beijing statement.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2012 at 5:07 PM

      The Nikkei is begging the audience, I mean the Fed, right now.

      Delete
  3. BB CanadaJuly 31, 2012 at 5:14 PM

    I don't know that it was the feds actions that cost market to rise. The fed only acts when things are bad, and the stock market is down. Perhaps the market was ready for a bounce and would have arisen regardless of what the fed did.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2012 at 5:28 PM

      So far the market's rise is unrelated to any Fed action- any actions they take will be announced tomorrow. Recent gains are in response to words from Draghi. Note also that the linked article references only gains recorded 24 hours pre-FOMC.

      Delete
    2. BB CanadaJuly 31, 2012 at 6:05 PM

      Plus, we were at the bottom of the up-channel which has been in place since June 4th. I've now heard that it's now coming out that Draghi wasn't really intending to say anything he hadn't already said before, but the market took it to be a big thing - the perception of news changes depending on where we are in the investment cycle.

      Delete
  4. AnonymousJuly 31, 2012 at 6:05 PM

    heavy duty insider purchases on YHOO stock. another fallen blue chip that will rise over time.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BB CanadaJuly 31, 2012 at 6:13 PM

      Some good value there - one of the best turnaround investors I know likes it a lot.

      Bought it in 2009, but fortunately didn't look like anything was going to happen soon, so I sold it for a small profit and did much better elsewhere.

      May be time for a revisit. Looks like the Alibaba buyback is coming.

      Delete
  5. BB CanadaJuly 31, 2012 at 6:16 PM

    Here's the question I would ask Hussman (and Bill Gross at Pimco who's on the same track).


    If your top down analysis shows things to be in the worst 0.6% environment for investing, why do so many successful, long term investors see so much good value in the market when looking at stocks bottom up? Also, even if your top down analysis is correct, why not buy these really cheap stocks as they very likely will do well regardless?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJuly 31, 2012 at 7:29 PM

      BB - One of the guys I follow (only because I used to work on their taxes and know that GMO's returns are solid) is Jeremy Grantham. He has held the view for a while now that blue chips will outperform all other asset classes in the S&P over the next 7 years. I tend to agree. Yahoo is one of those. I posted a few months ago about Yahoo and listed out all of their assets (assuming they were sold and valued on an after tax basis) and estimated their free cash flow using last year's free cash flow and calculated that they would have as much net cash on hand as their current market cap within less than 2 years.

      DELL was another in that boat.

      Delete
  6. 2nd_aveJuly 31, 2012 at 7:09 PM

    Shanghai lifting, +0.8%.

    ReplyDelete
  7. DavidJuly 31, 2012 at 9:28 PM

    "If your top down analysis shows things to be in the worst 0.6% environment for investing, why do so many successful, long term investors see so much good value in the market when looking at stocks bottom up? Also, even if your top down analysis is correct, why not buy these really cheap stocks as they very likely will do well regardless?"

    I guess Hussman has limited time and chooses to focus on S&P, which is clearly a handicap for him, since in May some sectors (say gold miners) had the lowest valuations in 30 years.

    ReplyDelete
  8. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2012 at 11:21 PM

    "the perception of news changes depending on where we are in the investment cycle."

    This is the key to daytrading!

    I wanna concentrate on TOF's comment here tonight, he made some good points.

    ReplyDelete
  9. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2012 at 11:28 PM

    Why is it China always rallies a bit when their PMI comes weak? Everyone in the world(99%?) is cheering for global QE, this is just too much to believe.

    ReplyDelete
  10. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2012 at 11:35 PM

    CSTR - I hope I don't lose track of this one.
    CMI - Kinda looks like it's ready to go for an upside ride.

    ReplyDelete
  11. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2012 at 11:47 PM

    MET - Earnings after close.

    ReplyDelete
  12. ChickenpookieJuly 31, 2012 at 11:50 PM

    Gold - I bet the poor Indian monsoon season will have an effect on disposable income spending.

    ReplyDelete
  13. DavidJuly 31, 2012 at 11:58 PM

    Just as a review, here is what Jeremy Grantham wrote in April 2011:

    You can assess on your own the probabilities of a [China] stumble in the next year or so. At the least, I would put it at 1 in 4, while some of my colleagues think the odds are much higher. If China stumbles or if the weather is better than expected, a probability I would put at, say, 80%, then commodity prices will decline a lot. But if both events occur together, it will very probably break the commodity markets en masse. Not unlike the fi nancial collapse. That was a once in a lifetime opportunity as most markets crashed by over 50%, some much more, and then roared back. Modesty should prevent me from quoting from my own July 2008 Quarterly Letter, which covered the first crash. “The prices of commodities are likely to crack short term (see first section of this letter) but this will be just a tease. In the next decade, the prices of all raw materials will be priced as just what they are, irreplaceable.” If the weather and China syndromes strike together, it will surely produce the second “once in a lifetime” event in three years. Institutional investors were too preoccupied staying afloat in early 2009 to have obsessed much about the first opportunity in commodities and, in any case, everything else was also down in price. A second commodity collapse in the next few years may also be psychologically hard to invest in for it will surely bring out the usual bullish argument: “There you are, its business as usual. There are plenty of raw materials, so don’t listen to the doomsayers.” Because it will have broad backing, this argument will be hard to resist, but should be.

    The China has indeed stumbled and we had a VERY warm winter, and just as Grantham had predicted, we got a second “once in a lifetime” commodity buying opportunity in three years. Who is taking advantage of it now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 12:14 AM

      great call. which commodities was grantham referring to?

      Delete
    2. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 12:58 AM

      He was talking about all commodities. I would recommend re-reading Part 1 of his 1Q2011 newsletter in its entirety.

      Speaking about his great calls, the Part 2 of his ~1Q2011 newsletter, published in May 2011, started as follows: "The Bottom Line: Lighten up on risk-taking now and don't wait for October 1 as previously recommended." He issued his warning at THE highest S&P point in 2011.

      Delete
    3. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 12:59 AM

      I wonder what he is going to say in his 2Q2012 newsletter, which is due any day now...

      Delete
  14. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 1:13 AM

    Looking at the 5-year chart of CAAS, it seems that NOW is a GREAT time to buy. The 5-year SORL chart also looks great for scaling in 1/3 now, 1/3 at $1.75 and 1/3 at $1.50, if we get there.

    ReplyDelete
  15. JBmaderaAugust 1, 2012 at 4:00 AM

    I'm going to ride out my FB trade: poker stars just acquired full tilt, with DOJ approval. I think this is a precursor to legalizing online gambling in the US and as I have posted earlier I believe online gambling will be the key to FB's mobile strategy.

    ReplyDelete
  16. BB CanadaAugust 1, 2012 at 4:58 AM

    Oakmark, whose long term track record is much better than Hussman's, was on CNBC yesterday http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000106333&play=1 - he is a bottoms up, value guy:

    "Stocks are really attractive right now," says Oakmark's Bill Nygren. Investors are significantly overpaying for safety and income, and that is giving us value where investors are willing to step up and take some risk. The companies he likes are focusing on investment to grow EPS faster than they grow earnings - largely through stock buybacks - rather than paying out cash flow through higher dividends. Some favorites of his: Capital One (COF), Comcast (CMCSA), Oracle (ORCL) and Ebay (EBAY).

    ReplyDelete
  17. BB CanadaAugust 1, 2012 at 5:32 AM

    From Zerohedge Tweet, Grantham agrees with David:

    Grantham is now long 20% resources in his personal foundation. Target: 30%.

    ReplyDelete
  18. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 5:58 AM

    added some nok premarket. stock was apparenly up overnight in europe on rumors of lenovo buyout which i highly doubt is reason it was up. lenovo has a market cap of less than nokia. this is what is called a shakeout. the big boys got in the stock heavy but not heavy enough and want cheaper shares. im still thinking stall for a couple of days then another rally to $3. absolutely love the stock here. think about this: mot was purchased for $12 billion by goog for only half of its patents. nok from what i read has a better patent portfolio than mot did. and theres proof because nok is getting $700 million a yr in royalties and this figure is growing. nok has a mrkt cap of $8 billion. i believe this rallies all year long.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 6:35 AM

      I don't get how a higher price is a shakeout, but I like the action. Looks like $3 is coming fast.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 6:36 AM

      For me, it's the gaps up that give me pause.

      Delete
    3. BB CanadaAugust 1, 2012 at 6:43 AM

      Wow - rocking this morning!

      Delete
    4. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 6:45 AM

      Oh I get it, you mean the shakeout is done and now it's rally time.

      Delete
    5. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 6:54 AM

      Okay, I'll bid on this one near today's low and then plan on adding if/as the gaps up close.

      This way, I won't feel like I'm chasing.

      Delete
  19. BB CanadaAugust 1, 2012 at 6:03 AM

    BofA: Our Contrarian Indicator Is Flashing The Biggest Stock Market Buy Signal We've Ever Seen - unofficially project S&P 10 over 1,800

    http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-our-contrarian-indicator-is-flashing-the-biggest-buy-signal-weve-ever-seen-2012-8

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 6:58 AM

      "we are encouraged by Wall Street’s lack of optimism"

      An 1800 target is simply ridiculous, though.

      Delete
  20. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 6:27 AM

    DBC - Commodities have certainly lifted.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Clear CutAugust 1, 2012 at 7:12 AM

    As per this AM's discussion.....I hope you all are following the breakout in NG. UNG/BOIL.
    Weather/commodities/technicals. Might be wise to wait for another pullback, but the chart looks good.
    FD: bought position after knockout at the gap up to 21.58, stupidly got scared out of BOIL when I should have held and added.

    Same for propane. (FGP). Look at the div.
    Thanks for the reminder on LINE 2nd.

    ReplyDelete
  22. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 7:16 AM

    CP - that's my thinking. NOK supposedly ran up on rumors of a Lenovo buyout. I call bullshit. The stock is extremely undervalued based on the value of its patents alone. Lenovo's market cap is $7 Billion. They're worth less than Nokias cash on hand. This stock ran up because the big boys are accumulating the crap out of it. They squashed the Lenovo rumor with some fabricated press release by a Lenovo "executive" that the rumor "is a joke". Yeah no shit it's a joke. The whole thing is a joke. The big boys want more shares at a cheaper price...plain and simple.

    Let's see: $8 Billion market cap, $7 of which is in net cash. That leaves $1 Billion for the value of the company which consists of a cell phone division, a huge patent portfolio (Nokia owns over 10,000 patent families, after investing more than 45 billion euros, which is generating $700 Million a year in royalties and growing), and navteq (purchased for $8 Billion but let's say it's worth 1/4 of that now). Lets assume the company operates at a loss of $1 Billion a year...they still have 7 years worth of cash. The cash drain is actually dwindling per their report last quarter in part because of rising royalties on their patents.

    Add in that Motorola's patent port was purchased by $12 Billion by Goog and it consisted of only half of the port (maybe it was the good half?) and NOK is rumored to have a better portfolio and you begin to realize why NOK is worth significantly more than $2.5. I just wish I loaded the boat when I first bought a small amount at $1.8.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 7:29 AM

      The other classic sign of a bottom: Goldman issued a neutral (basically a sell) on NOK with a $1.30 price target on the day the stock bottomed:

      http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/12/07/2754434/update-goldman-sachs-reiterates-neutral-1-30-pt-on-nokia

      I wonder who was buying them up.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 7:34 AM

      Oh crap, NOK's trading less than cash....

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 7:46 AM

      NOK - Okay, so what happens here when Lenovo refutes buyout plans? NOK should present a new buying op, I'd expect.

      Delete
  23. JBmaderaAugust 1, 2012 at 7:28 AM

    check out the 5 day chart of N, huge missed oppty this a.m. after someone bailed....fat finger or just a big time trading error???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 7:40 AM

      Looks kinda like running stops.

      Delete
    2. JBmaderaAugust 1, 2012 at 7:42 AM

      could be related to the KCG f*ck up, these guys are getting killed. expect more trouble for them in the near future.

      Delete
  24. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 7:31 AM

    Everyone's calling for a gold breakout, aside from Colonel Possum, I guess they all read David's SA article and agree! ;)

    ReplyDelete
  25. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 7:43 AM

    A vacant building in DC collapsed this morning, they think due to structural damage from last year's earth quake.

    ReplyDelete
  26. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 7:51 AM

    FB - I recall someone had said they expected FB would go to $18, I don't recall who, or where I read this anymore.

    ReplyDelete
  27. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 7:52 AM

    "NOK - Okay, so what happens here when Lenovo refutes buyout plans? NOK should present a new buying op, I'd expect."

    That happened this morning supposedly...selloff lasted for like 2 hours.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 8:27 AM

      I see an untested candle from yesterday morning, looks like just under $2.30, so I'm gonna try getting in there. I fully acknowledge this smacks of being too cute for my own good. ;)

      Delete
  28. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 7:54 AM

    $USD is green, now I feel better b/c this is what I'm expecting.

    ReplyDelete
  29. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 7:57 AM

    BAH - Gonna pay a special dividend?

    ReplyDelete
  30. MarkWAugust 1, 2012 at 8:04 AM

    Layering in 3 more sell orders for NSPH.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 8:36 AM

      of course you held you lucky SOB! there was a huge buy earlier this morning.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 9:07 AM

      Jaffray, NSPH's broker for handling the recent offering, is completely unbiased and not conflicted concerning yesterday's upgrade!

      TOF - There's a gap up from $2.64 remaining, so maybe once all the upgrade enthusiasm has worn off and there's not so much money remaining to burn holes through the sheeple's pockets we can get down and dirty?!?!?

      I could be completely wrong, that happens way more often than I like so just tell me if/when I am for my own good.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 9:59 AM

      CP - Yeah the Piper Jaffray upgrade and the other upgrades smell fishy to me and was one of the reasons I cashed in yesterday. You guys selling the spike was the other reason!

      Delete
    4. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 10:14 AM

      We only answer to ourselves, not each other. Just as it should be.

      Delete
  31. MarkWAugust 1, 2012 at 8:14 AM

    I had like 10 seconds to take F off at BE this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  32. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 8:50 AM

    RSH - Gap down closed and then they turned the lights off.

    ReplyDelete
  33. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 9:52 AM

    GMO - Old concerns that really should already be priced weighing heavy. Might get an entry here in a few days?

    ReplyDelete
  34. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 10:00 AM

    F - Beginning to wonder if my $9.04 bid isn't just about right, or too optimistic....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 10:27 AM

      I withdraw my bid till I have some time to review this one, my current observation is lower highs still occurring. $9.50 would've been the ST bullish breakout target I see on the chart and it's obviously not happening in the next few hours(Although minor, by not chasing yesterday I managed to dodge a bullet!).

      Ideal scenario for my taste now involves trading a range based on successfully retesting the recent low. Hate the idea of chasing!

      Delete
  35. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 10:33 AM

    ahhh there goes the euphoria in NOK. well a short term ceiling looks to have been hit. let's see how far they can drag it lower. i'm sitting with cash in hand waiting.

    ReplyDelete
  36. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

    TOF, which key stats page suggests a better investment opportunity to you:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CAAS+Key+Statistics

    or

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SORL+Key+Statistics

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

      can i say neither? i don't see any sustainable catalysts to investing in small cap china stocks at the moment.

      Delete
    2. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

      If you didn't know that they were small cap China stocks, which of them would look more attractive?

      Delete
    3. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 11:17 AM

      SORL

      Delete
  37. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 11:17 AM

    The market is puking -- Bernanke didn't do what he was supposed to do?

    ReplyDelete
  38. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM

    Alright what the &$@# was that, did the Beard just take a crap on the living room floor at 14:00?

    ReplyDelete
  39. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM

    Jeez I feel bad for people buying NOK at $2.7 if they're day trading it.

    ReplyDelete
  40. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM

    Yep, Bernanke didn't do shit.

    ReplyDelete
  41. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 11:25 AM

    Well, at least traders piled up into AUMN, after seeing a pike down in silver/gold. :)

    ReplyDelete
  42. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

    I suppose Bernanke didn't want to take the spotlight away from Draghi tomorrow...

    ReplyDelete
  43. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

    ahhh the patent wars continue:

    WASHINGTON-- InterDigital Inc. (IDCC) shares rose sharply Wednesday after a federal appeals court revived patent infringement claims the company made against Nokia Corp. (NOK) in 2007.
    The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit , on a 2-1 vote, reversed a U.S. International Trade Commission finding that Nokia did not infringe InterDigital patents on wireless technology.
    The appeals court said the ITC misconstrued two InterDigital patents and it sent the case back to the ITC for new proceedings.
    InterDigital's shares were up 12% on the news, trading recently at $30.63 .
    InterDigital had filed the ITC case in a bid to block the U.S. importation of Nokia 3G products that it believed infringed its patents. Its lawsuit came after the companies failed to reach a licensing agreement.

    ReplyDelete
  44. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

    Forests are absorbing most of the excess(manmade) CO2 but can't keep doing this?

    ReplyDelete
  45. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

    NOK - Today's gap up was just taken care of..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 11:42 AM

      As well as the 50% obligation on yesterday's untested closing bar.

      Delete
  46. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 11:50 AM

    Alrighty...added a little more NOK at $2.36.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 11:54 AM

      So close to my open bid by 0.02, maybe I shouldnt've been quite so stingy...

      Delete
    2. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 11:58 AM

      From a longer term perspective, today's huge topping tail is absolutely beautiful. Scares the crap out of traders and keeps them fearful of a drop to recent lows. If they can get this down another $0.15 or so I will be all in.

      I'm sure I'll be all in anyway over time but I'd like to see the $2.2 area.

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 12:06 PM

      Okay, I chased a little and dipped my toe in $2.34, set to flip it at $2.55, the first untested bar down from ~14:30 earlier today.

      Delete
    4. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 12:16 PM

      Well, there's still that open gap from $2.02, probably placed there to keep gap humpers at bay. Another untested bar ~$2.30 from yesterday and another ~$2.15 from Monday.

      Delete
  47. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 11:51 AM

    AMD - Ha, ha, doesn't look like bears are making much progress. I'm surprised, maybe I just don't know enough about current events specific to AMD's pipeline.

    ReplyDelete
  48. BB CanadaAugust 1, 2012 at 12:06 PM

    Granthams letter is out for who was interested in this yesterday:

    http://www.gurufocus.com/news/184366/jeremy-grantham-q2-letter--welcome-to-dystopia/affid/81000

    or you can read the summary at your own risk that the reporter knows what he is talking abuot:

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/market-blog/granthams-investing-theme-were-running-out-of-everything/article4454046/

    ReplyDelete
  49. 2nd_aveAugust 1, 2012 at 12:16 PM

    True to form, the market responded in unexpected fashion to the Fed’s decision to stand pat (but prepared to act should employment numbers continue to disappoint) by selling off for all of 5 minutes (thus shaking out weak hands), and then quickly recovering. This paves the way for continued gains for the month of August. JMO, of course.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 12:18 PM

      Man, you're forcing me to reconsider flipping my new NOK position!!! ;)

      Delete
  50. DavidAugust 1, 2012 at 12:16 PM

    So why exactly are GDXJ and slv/gld moving in the opposite directions after the FOMC announcement???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 12:22 PM

      How else would you suggest the market camouflage it's next move?

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

      Okay, so honest attempt at making sense of it, I guess GDXJ is anticipating that gold $1600 psychological support is holding>

      Delete
  51. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 12:42 PM

    NOK - Out at $2.39+ for a 0.05 gain (~tank of gas and this month's electric bill).

    ReplyDelete
  52. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 1:01 PM

    Tsunami Motors - Wow, impressive recovery...

    ReplyDelete
  53. JBmaderaAugust 1, 2012 at 1:16 PM

    FSLR is rocking after nice earnings....tof - did you jump in earlier this week?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 2:04 PM

      JB - Nope...too focused on NOK at the moment. My friends bought some though and they held, which is cool.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 2:14 PM

      JB - my guess is FSLR drops to $14 again.

      Delete
    3. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 2:24 PM

      If I had to make a call on the close tomorrow I say down $1.00 for FSLR despite it being up $2 after hours. Call me crazy.

      Delete
  54. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 2:57 PM

    Yelp!

    ReplyDelete
  55. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 3:03 PM

    wow FSLR continues higher after hours.

    ReplyDelete
  56. AnonymousAugust 1, 2012 at 3:11 PM

    One biotech stock I consider to be one of the best out there in terms of potential is ATRS. I don't know if you remember this but this is the same company as AIS which back in December I posted about after it dropped to like $1.80. They came up on a screen of mine of companies that had solid revenue growth and were trading below a certain market cap.

    Last night I was going through other biotechs and came back to this one and wrote a note that there is a gap at $4.25 that Needs to be filled. Guess what today's low was. Check it out when you get a chance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 4:19 PM

      Oh wonderful, a buck eighty! Okay, I'm gonna be looking at it. Superficial observation is it might be coming back into the 3 year chart channel assuming this current support area does fail. Rough picklefork intersects around the EMA34, @~$3.33

      Gaps are merely obligations, cannot safely be considered as former targets, only tentative. What else do you guys see?

      I've gotta go play with pooch-larookie here for a little while to keep him happy...

      Delete
  57. ChickenpookieAugust 1, 2012 at 3:15 PM

    Cyber security is the issue in the spotlight yet the electricity grid has been totally forgotten. Hmmm, you'd think at least the big problem in India would be reason enough to resume debate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. illiniAugust 1, 2012 at 4:14 PM

      Yeh, what ever happened to BO's campaign promise on the grid?

      Delete

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)