I am always leery of these complex products when they are new and would definitely read the prospectus to see how it really works and what the fees are before buying. Often, the products are more about generating commissions than investor returns. Because regardless of what they promise, we still take all the risk.
You think these types of things would work, but in my experience they don't. By the time they identify something as working, the outperformance is pretty much gone.
If it were this easy, we'd all just copy warren buffett's picks and be worth $60 billion.
BB, you posted a link on interest rates the other day and I can't find it. Would you post that again?
Look at the volatility of TBT, and me short the NOV 65 calls against my shares. This one has been moving around a lot. I bet buddy Ben is drinking a lot of pepto.
Yeah, that's the downside of trading the way I do.
But I've had quite a few stocks that go down 50%, then up 1000%, so it works out more often than not. I'm usually buying stocks when they are on their way down, so I am often early.
But I've also had a few recently like Nat Gas stocks recently where I am down 80% and I had 2 of my stocks go bankrupt this year which is the first time I've had that happen, so perhaps I am being a little too aggressive with some of my purchases.
So let's see, the good news is the school project is due tomorrow and we're all done. I don't think I'm going to survive middle school next year.
Got longer than usual over the last few days and started selling it today. I was probably longer than I've been in awhile yesterday and I'm amazed at how little I've made considering how well the market has done.
Closed out some long qqq calls that I bot 2 days ago for +.44 gain, IBM really took the steam out of that one today.
Sold half of my long SSo position that I bot a week ago for a 2.42 gain, moving the stop up to breakeven plus 1.20 on the remaining shares. I love SSO and SDS because I have zero emotional attachment to those.
I was trying to sell a third of my GLD longs, only 50 shares cuz its pricey for me, but I had a Good Till Cancel stop loss order in on Ameritrade and it looks like if you try to cancel after the close it won't reset till the next day. I called them about that because on Think Or Swim, when you cancel an order it's immediate. Hopefully it will be up tomorrow and I'll put a trailing stop on 50 shares and raise my stop loss on the rest.
I had planned on buying more ACI below $8 and selling the Nov 8 strike calls so I did that today. I only wanted 700 shares but I fat fingered it and bot 7700 shares and sold 77 calls. It took me a bit to figure out why my account was showing a big negative margin balance. Fortunately I was able to trade out of the extra 7000 shares for a $140 profit, RIGHT BEFORE ACI rallied over $.30. I was just happey it didn't cost anything.
I would think we would get another dip shortly in natty and coal. Cash prices for natty are about $.20 below November.
Still have my RIMM and DSX shares with stops in place. Both of these are just going sideways.
so look at XHB - at the top of the consolidation channel. It looks like a breakout above $26.25 but look at how perfect that 26.17 ish resistance is. I don't like the candle stick wicks on top of the highs either.
Following TOF into YRCW at $7.00 - small position as it's already up from the low $5's earlier this year, so may get chance to add lower, but I think risk/reward is good for a large win if the economy holds and they continue to work on getting costs down.
Yesterday someone posted an article I think it was from Business Insider about the markets / economy. Anyway, I read the comments below the article and every comment was negative and cynical. It blows my mind how much people hate this market. I think there is little doubt we will see new all time highs on the S&P 500.
Also, I tuned into the Lost Money Fast Halftime Show and they were all negative on GOOG heading into earnings. I think it gaps up 10% and those $800 calls go up 10 fold. I'm not in them though but will be fun to watch.
Very strange GOO today - release the numbers early with no warning, then halt the stock 15 minutes later after a few million shares have been traded - bad.
Not surprised we are getting a pullback - it was up almost 40% in the last 2 months. I thought I should wait for a better entry , but the S&P rerating yesterday and the better economic news got me thinking we might not get a solid pullback, so got a starter position.
Best for me would be a pullback to $5 tomorrow on no bad news at which time I would get a full-size position.
But I agree, it's almost certainly going to be a lot of these types of actions in a stock like this. Important to know what your plan is, so don't get panicked out either on the way down or up.
You guys see the news out of ETH today? Direct beneficiary of housing improvement. FBN could be a nice related play. Kind of reminds me of SPF last summer. I wouldn't be surprised to see $4 again relatively soon.
probably nothing but i drew a trend line lower from the highs on 4/30 through the highs in June and September...in early trading today the stock broke above that trend line. May just be a technical reaction to that break. just like the fundamental signs of a turnaround that are showing up. i'd recommend listening to their early sept investor presentation. at 0.01 times sales i just think there is potentially a ton of upside if they're able to somehow break even.
Plus I thought S&P was fairly positive in their outlook upgrade. Saying all the stuff we know, but if S&P is recognizing it, adds some credibility other than management who have a vested interest.
AUMN has been moving sideways for the past 7 trading days, which gives me a feeling that the post-FOMC decline is over. So I just purchased 10 more April $2.50 calls at $2.15.
NSPH - My suspicion is shorts are betting on the eventual failure of yet another startup company.
What do you suppose the probability of failure might be, would big pharma prefer poking through the dumpster as opposed to buying technology at fair market value?
Didn't know Larry Page had issues with his voice. Found an interesting article from someone about this: http://dilbert.com/blog/entry/larry_pages_voice_problem/
"The Fed clearly has QE3 underway with this week's report. For the October 17 week, total assets gained $35.3 billion after an advance of $3.1 billion the prior week. The rise was led by mortgage-backed securities which jumped $27.3 billion. Also, "other assets" (largely those denominated in foreign currencies) which increased $3.0 billion."
This should calm the worries of many small traders as to why the Fed balance sheet has not been expanding since FOMC, and thus create a new wave of PM buying.
BB - I agree that the note from S&P about YRCW was actually somewhat positive. If they are acknowledging that the company is showing progress in turning things around and the nearest debt deadlines aren't until late 2014, it gives them enough time to become profitable or at least break-even. And if that happens I would have to imagine their lenders would be willing to extend maturities on their debt and the stock would really take off. Their business is a lot more streamlined than it has been in a while and from the sounds of interviews with the new CEO they're completely focused on turning this around and stripping out any excess costs.
Here are a couple of notes I jotted down when I was initially researching YRC:
*Gross Margins historically were around 64 - 65%. 2011 margins were 65.3%. Q2 2012 margins were 67%. Margins appear to be increasing slightly.
*"Operating expenses and supplies" were 24.5% of sales in 2011 vs 21.8% in 2010 and 23.2% in 2009. If this were to return to the 2010/09 average of 22.5% it would result in $98 Million in additional operating income. Of the components that make this up, about $170 of the $250 Million increase was related to increased diesel prices. Diesel prices in 2012 are about the same as 2011 so there may not be much room for improvement here. However, the remainder came from higher vehicle and facility maintenance, higher bad debt expense, and higher professional services expense related to an increase in restructuring professional fees (they had a huge corp restructuring that brought in new mgmt team in July 2011). These $70 or $80 Million in increases might go away.
I am always leery of these complex products when they are new and would definitely read the prospectus to see how it really works and what the fees are before buying. Often, the products are more about generating commissions than investor returns. Because regardless of what they promise, we still take all the risk.
ReplyDeletehttp://alphaclone.com/
DeleteYou think these types of things would work, but in my experience they don't. By the time they identify something as working, the outperformance is pretty much gone.
DeleteIf it were this easy, we'd all just copy warren buffett's picks and be worth $60 billion.
Evening gents
ReplyDeleteBB, you posted a link on interest rates the other day and I can't find it. Would you post that again?
Look at the volatility of TBT, and me short the NOV 65 calls against my shares. This one has been moving around a lot. I bet buddy Ben is drinking a lot of pepto.
http://media.swissre.com/documents/sigma4_2012_en.pdf
Deletepage 5
BB- 50%...That's steep bro.
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's the downside of trading the way I do.
DeleteBut I've had quite a few stocks that go down 50%, then up 1000%, so it works out more often than not. I'm usually buying stocks when they are on their way down, so I am often early.
But I've also had a few recently like Nat Gas stocks recently where I am down 80% and I had 2 of my stocks go bankrupt this year which is the first time I've had that happen, so perhaps I am being a little too aggressive with some of my purchases.
So let's see, the good news is the school project is due tomorrow and we're all done. I don't think I'm going to survive middle school next year.
ReplyDeleteGot longer than usual over the last few days and started selling it today. I was probably longer than I've been in awhile yesterday and I'm amazed at how little I've made considering how well the market has done.
Closed out some long qqq calls that I bot 2 days ago for +.44 gain, IBM really took the steam out of that one today.
Sold half of my long SSo position that I bot a week ago for a 2.42 gain, moving the stop up to breakeven plus 1.20 on the remaining shares. I love SSO and SDS because I have zero emotional attachment to those.
I was trying to sell a third of my GLD longs, only 50 shares cuz its pricey for me, but I had a Good Till Cancel stop loss order in on Ameritrade and it looks like if you try to cancel after the close it won't reset till the next day. I called them about that because on Think Or Swim, when you cancel an order it's immediate. Hopefully it will be up tomorrow and I'll put a trailing stop on 50 shares and raise my stop loss on the rest.
I had planned on buying more ACI below $8 and selling the Nov 8 strike calls so I did that today. I only wanted 700 shares but I fat fingered it and bot 7700 shares and sold 77 calls. It took me a bit to figure out why my account was showing a big negative margin balance. Fortunately I was able to trade out of the extra 7000 shares for a $140 profit, RIGHT BEFORE ACI rallied over $.30. I was just happey it didn't cost anything.
ReplyDeleteI would think we would get another dip shortly in natty and coal. Cash prices for natty are about $.20 below November.
Still have my RIMM and DSX shares with stops in place. Both of these are just going sideways.
ReplyDeleteso look at XHB - at the top of the consolidation channel. It looks like a breakout above $26.25 but look at how perfect that 26.17 ish resistance is. I don't like the candle stick wicks on top of the highs either.
I know tof is going to be doing something fancy with GOOG options tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteha. yeah i was actually looking at just naked $800 calls. buy $500 worth just for chits and giggles.
DeleteNSPH - I haven't seen the big seller this morning, have you guys?
ReplyDeleteKinda. Whatching 3.14 level. Also looking at VALE.
DeleteGGN - Looks like same pattern setting up as did in Aug.
ReplyDeleteTakes no time at all for PM bugs to desert ship in rough seas.
GGB - Seems like a good opportunity to buy into a pullback.
ReplyDeleteBears getting spanked. ;)
ReplyDeleteFollowing TOF into YRCW at $7.00 - small position as it's already up from the low $5's earlier this year, so may get chance to add lower, but I think risk/reward is good for a large win if the economy holds and they continue to work on getting costs down.
ReplyDeleteNice good luck BB.
DeleteYesterday someone posted an article I think it was from Business Insider about the markets / economy. Anyway, I read the comments below the article and every comment was negative and cynical. It blows my mind how much people hate this market. I think there is little doubt we will see new all time highs on the S&P 500.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I tuned into the Lost Money Fast Halftime Show and they were all negative on GOOG heading into earnings. I think it gaps up 10% and those $800 calls go up 10 fold. I'm not in them though but will be fun to watch.
something just happened with GOOG
ReplyDeletepre released earnings big hit. wow. didn't see that one coming.
DeleteGood thing you stayed out.
DeleteI think GOOG is a good stock to own long term if you can get it at the right price (maybe under $500?).
Very strange GOO today - release the numbers early with no warning, then halt the stock 15 minutes later after a few million shares have been traded - bad.
DeleteGood, maybe now we can finally determine direction for a time horizon greater than 20sec.
DeleteI think someone will be getting fired today - from WSJ:
DeleteThe not-quite-complete report came with a space reserved for a canned quip from CEO Larry Page that read only “Pending Larry Quote.”
QID - Now you can sell if it you didn't buy it.
ReplyDeleteThe full moon is calling
The fever is high
And the wicked wind whispers
And moans.
I bought it yesterday on the weak close in aapl. Now what?
DeleteHey, they managed to finagle GOOG, APPL, and INTC lower, nice work if you can get it. So what's not to be happy about concerning QID?
DeleteBy all rights I'd keep it and see where it goes, but today's gain might evaporate into the evening breeze as the sun sets.
That's my thought too. If I keep it it will almost certainly give it back and if I sell it the Q's will tank like nobody's business.
DeleteBB - I didn't want to go there but you had to jinx YRCW huh?
ReplyDelete9% swing from the high to low. Wow. My guess is its a shakeout. Gonna be and have been a lot of these along the way.
DeleteWhen the market decides it does not like things, bids evaporate and price swings are unreal, new new world.
DeleteBailed on NOG earlier. I'll take specalist's and 1/8's over this anyday at least I know it's a person ripping me versus a machine.
Not surprised we are getting a pullback - it was up almost 40% in the last 2 months. I thought I should wait for a better entry , but the S&P rerating yesterday and the better economic news got me thinking we might not get a solid pullback, so got a starter position.
DeleteBest for me would be a pullback to $5 tomorrow on no bad news at which time I would get a full-size position.
But I agree, it's almost certainly going to be a lot of these types of actions in a stock like this. Important to know what your plan is, so don't get panicked out either on the way down or up.
CSTR - Anybody selling this one today?
ReplyDeleteHave you, folks, seen the recent drop in Spanish bond yields?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND
This should translate into an increased risk appetite in the markets...
Whatever happened to the COT report theory, have commercials been covering today?
DeleteSome think the bond market is completely distorted and is unsustainable.
You guys see the news out of ETH today? Direct beneficiary of housing improvement. FBN could be a nice related play. Kind of reminds me of SPF last summer. I wouldn't be surprised to see $4 again relatively soon.
ReplyDeleteETH - Crap, this is one I was going to follow but forgot about! :O
ReplyDeleteNSPH- Looks to me like retail is now on the ask side. Large visible orders. We might get a shot here soon.
ReplyDeleteNice move/volume for MDW.
ReplyDeleteTZOO- I guess this sucker is dead.
ReplyDeleteHigh growth stock without growth = dead.
DeleteYeah, looks like they might bail on how their rates work.
DeleteBought more YRCW at $6.76/$6.80.
ReplyDeleteYou got coconuts man.
Deleteprobably nothing but i drew a trend line lower from the highs on 4/30 through the highs in June and September...in early trading today the stock broke above that trend line. May just be a technical reaction to that break. just like the fundamental signs of a turnaround that are showing up. i'd recommend listening to their early sept investor presentation. at 0.01 times sales i just think there is potentially a ton of upside if they're able to somehow break even.
DeletePlus I thought S&P was fairly positive in their outlook upgrade. Saying all the stuff we know, but if S&P is recognizing it, adds some credibility other than management who have a vested interest.
DeleteAUMN has been moving sideways for the past 7 trading days, which gives me a feeling that the post-FOMC decline is over. So I just purchased 10 more April $2.50 calls at $2.15.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Looks like those who confused this one with MCP are beginning to realize their mistake?
ReplyDeleteHey, give a shout if you guys see a presidential candidate loitering around the Thompson Creek window factory in the next few weeks...
NSPH - My suspicion is shorts are betting on the eventual failure of yet another startup company.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you suppose the probability of failure might be, would big pharma prefer poking through the dumpster as opposed to buying technology at fair market value?
Didn't know Larry Page had issues with his voice. Found an interesting article from someone about this:
ReplyDeletehttp://dilbert.com/blog/entry/larry_pages_voice_problem/
From Econoday this afternoon:
ReplyDelete"The Fed clearly has QE3 underway with this week's report. For the October 17 week, total assets gained $35.3 billion after an advance of $3.1 billion the prior week. The rise was led by mortgage-backed securities which jumped $27.3 billion. Also, "other assets" (largely those denominated in foreign currencies) which increased $3.0 billion."
This should calm the worries of many small traders as to why the Fed balance sheet has not been expanding since FOMC, and thus create a new wave of PM buying.
BB - I agree that the note from S&P about YRCW was actually somewhat positive. If they are acknowledging that the company is showing progress in turning things around and the nearest debt deadlines aren't until late 2014, it gives them enough time to become profitable or at least break-even. And if that happens I would have to imagine their lenders would be willing to extend maturities on their debt and the stock would really take off. Their business is a lot more streamlined than it has been in a while and from the sounds of interviews with the new CEO they're completely focused on turning this around and stripping out any excess costs.
ReplyDeleteHere are a couple of notes I jotted down when I was initially researching YRC:
*Gross Margins historically were around 64 - 65%. 2011 margins were 65.3%. Q2 2012 margins were 67%. Margins appear to be increasing slightly.
*"Operating expenses and supplies" were 24.5% of sales in 2011 vs 21.8% in 2010 and 23.2% in 2009. If this were to return to the 2010/09 average of 22.5% it would result in $98 Million in additional operating income. Of the components that make this up, about $170 of the $250 Million increase was related to increased diesel prices. Diesel prices in 2012 are about the same as 2011 so there may not be much room for improvement here. However, the remainder came from higher vehicle and facility maintenance, higher bad debt expense, and higher professional services expense related to an increase in restructuring professional fees (they had a huge corp restructuring that brought in new mgmt team in July 2011). These $70 or $80 Million in increases might go away.
new post
ReplyDelete