Tuesday, October 23, 2012

10/23/12 Bullish

No shit. Opened SMH + XLK early in the day, and SMH actually closed >1% higher. XLK closed lower. SLW was a dog> but position size is small. Opened RYSIX end-of-day.

54 comments:

  1. As I was thinking about my exit strategy from AUMN, I decided that the smartest thing to do would be to start selling premium, if possible. Thus, I cancelled my sell limit orders for AUMN shares and instead placed sell limit orders for $5 calls, of which I have way too much right now. I will try to sell: 10 January $5 calls at $1.00, 10 January $5 calls at $1.65 (I originally purchased 20 January $5 calls at $1.65), 20 April $5 calls at $1.10 (purchased them today at $0.55), 30 April $5 calls at $2.40 (I purchased them yesterday at $0.60). After that, I'll start selling covered January $7.50 calls against the shares I have.

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  2. HII - Recovered all of yesterday's loss. What the heck is an amphibious assault ship?

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    1. Although I've never driven a ship on land, the turning radius doesn't seem compatible with any city streets I'm familiar with: "844 feet long, 106 feet wide and will displace 44,971 long tons"

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  3. Lots of publicity for MITK from the Money2020 show in Vegas. Will be interesting to see if it moves the needle tomorrow.

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    1. mark - i still think in the bigger picture that there is a chance that MITK, just like all future tech winners, is just going through a normal nasty pullback and correction phase before moving higher. who is to say for sure that their technology isn't going to be used in lots of every day activities in the future? the ability to extract data from an image and translate that into text/data is a powerful technology. i know lots of other companies are in that area but MITK has some big name companies as customers. and bill pay is still potentially out there as a major catalyst.

      anyway, what was said about them in the money2020 show?

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    2. Mark - I'm assuming you saw this:
      http://m.cutimes.com/2012/10/23/miteks-debello-pictures-more-bill-payment-with-sma?ref=hp

      I may need to take up a position in MITK after reading this. I didn't realize they're in the Bluepoint offering. That is going to be a big player. Look at what it has done to GDOT, which by the way is probably an excellent short.

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  4. The Germans are checking on the status of their gold stash:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/german-auditor-office-urges-central-bank-to-control-gold-reserves-held-in-us-france-britain/2012/10/22/a986448c-1c63-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_story.html

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  5. Have you seen the silver chart tonight?

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

    Someone got effed big time, buying silver at $33.50...

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  6. Closed my (small) position in SLW pre-market @ 38.6x. A -2% loss that reminds me how 'fast' the mining sector trades.

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  7. TOF- Yeah, I saw the blue bird thing. Manily lots of talk about all the stuff we already know. Bill pay is no said to be coming in Nov.

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  8. They've been selling energy since the bell. I don't like it.

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    1. I don't like the selling either. I offed maybe 15-20% of my position in SMH due to the strong open, but now wish I had taken it all off.

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    2. I'll take a hit today, and the indexes will continue to churn lower. That's my take right now.

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  9. New home sales increase 5.7% in Sept.

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  10. Sure feels like a slope of hope right now, which is the only hope I have that it may rally later in the day.

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    1. Stiff upper lip. PPT saves the day just as the cliff appears imminent, shorts react by covering and we're off to the races?

      1100 would be a wonderful gift for B&H participants, IMO.

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  11. http://ycharts.com/analysis/story/goodbye_jobs_us_ceos_wont_waiver_in_laying_off_workers_as_global_economy_stalls

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  12. Trading has dried up in most of the tiny crap I follow.

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  13. Sup fellas. Not much going on today. Regret selling the FB calls. Still holding YRCW. I added some more puts on SHW...

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  14. $50 oil would be amazing, wouldn't it? I just don't believe it could happen, no way no how.

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  15. 1424 - I bet we move back above 1424 soon, on our way to 1475 where we pull back and once that's done rally on to 1500 by EOY?

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  16. AGO - Is there any chance this one might hit my $12.88 stink bid?

    I have serious doubts.

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  17. HII - This is the IPO resistance level.

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  18. AKAM - Will the July gap up from ~$30.50 be closed?

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  19. Closed those SHW options. Stupid trade because everything tied to housing is booming. Chart looks weak but I can't ignore the bullishness from housing/banks/housing related stuff (ETH, WHR, etc).

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  20. i like YOKU a lot. just picked up a starting position in it at $20.55.

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  21. Was the NFX Q really that bad? Maybe it was in the call.

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    1. i don't know man. i was looking at the stats and they appeared to be ok. could be missing something.

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  22. got a feeling that tomorrow is going to be a nice up day. just feels like we're swinging in 40 to 70 point moves right now and we're at the low end of that move.

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    1. this looks like very similar trading to what happened back in late 1999...however, every time i look at that i think that we are still in the same spot 13 years later and our earnings are WAY higher. that makes me think that there is just far less downside than people get all worked up about.

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    2. i guess i should just say that i expect the downside to continue to be limited.

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    3. "same spot 13 years later and our earnings are WAY higher."

      Good info, thanks.

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  23. During this pullback, make sure to keep your eyes on which stocks are holding in there. BAC comes to mind.

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  24. Re AGO, I don't think we get much more of a pullback unless we get a major market selloff.

    Pretty good news today from their lawsuit with Flagstar:

    http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/New_York/News/2012/10_-_October/Assured_trial__Loan_file_fraud_fireworks_mask_key_sampling_issue/

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    1. Yeah, something seems to be providing an extra bit of lift.

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  25. Alright. I was wrong. Offed my remaining SMH + XLK at current prices (not that great), for a reasonable loss, which is somewhat offset by the fact that SMH is even now trading above my entry price(s) + the gains on the 15-20% I sold early this morning.

    All that remains is selling RYSIX at the close, and anything could happen between now and the close. ----ing mutual fund rules.

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  26. Nothing personal, but every time there's been volatility in the CC blog, miners sell off hard. Just an observation, and one that didn't disappoint this time.

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  27. Another observation. When I'm wrong on ST direction, a quick exit usually pays off. In other words, since I was wrong to be bullish, I'm even more bearish now than I would be otherwise.

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  28. CSCO gap fill. Can't own it though. Can't figure out Chambers hair.

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  29. Not sure who was buying that last push down, contrarians?

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  30. I spent an hour yesterday talking to my old boss about selling his FIO shares (he owned roughly 70,000 shares). luckily he took my advice and sold at $28. Needless to say he owes me a free coffee...or bag of skittles.

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    1. Maybe now it's a buy?

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    2. $24 handle looks good, nice save! I'm waiting to see if gap up closes.

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    3. $25 is a 50% fib pullback, right?

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  31. I can't see any reason to hold something through earnings. None.

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