Deep six Plan B, move to Plan C. Low print on SPX futes was 1391.25 last night! Those of us unable to trade the ES were of course left on the sidelines.
I'm pretty sure we've been handed a buying opportunity. The only question is whether to buy sale prices offered at the open, or wait for better bargains down the road.
I'm thinking a ton of traders are rushing to buy the open.
ReplyDeleteI just turned to my scholarly tome, and there it is: 'The second mouse gets the cheese.'
DeleteI was reminded yesterday what it feels like to be first in the door.
DeleteTVIX - +1000%.......
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/i-hit-the-trifecta-on-market-calls-in-2012-2012-12-21?link=MW_story_investinginsight
ReplyDeleteTime to start fading this guy.
MLNX - Down another $1.32, -2.25%
ReplyDeleteTalk about a pump and dump, I went looking for articles and it was all "buy, buy, buy"....
Since stocks are sold and not bought, surely that advice is a marketing sales job?
NOK island reversal...time to get the eff out.
ReplyDeleteIsland reversal completion.
DeleteI guess next year absolutely zero IR's will work.
DeleteMLNX - Okay, let's see this one go now!!!!!
ReplyDeleteCan't believe it's not down another 10% already, just give it a minute or two.........
RIMM giving up gains for the month.
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is RIMM is in decline, not 100% sure about that though. I keep wondering why PALM bombed, someone must've come along and knocked them and their cute little stocking stuffer toy off the ledge as well.
DeleteSure wish I'd gone all-in on TVIX two days ago....
ReplyDeleteNot really getting much of a buying opportunity this morning. Perhaps the improving economy is outweighing the government stupidness or maybe people think it gets fixed in January.
ReplyDeleteCanada parliamentary politics are so much simpler - you vote for 1 person and the party with the most people gets to pretty much make all the rules - risky if a bad party is elected, but at least stuff gets done.
"If Sequestration occurs, tax rates go up 3%, return to 1999 levels, and about $500B out of 16 trillion economy gets cut over all of 2013.
ReplyDeleteLet’s see, 3% tax bump versus Martial Law: Yeah the Sequestration is exactly like TARP. (CC sez:'NOT')
The best part about the fiscal cliff is how revealing it is of the scaremongers, fools and charlatans, Make your list of fools now, and save it for a future date. You may find it productive."
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/12/sequestration-is-not-remotely-anything-like-tarp/
Added some AUMN. Added some SNE.
ReplyDeleteThis is worse than some schmuck yelling FIRE in a crowded theater.
It should be illegal, bad manners for sure.
DeleteMLNX - Will anyone who bought early Wednesday Dec. 19th ever break even?
ReplyDeleteThat's what I'm curious to know.... I have my doubts.
The market is setting up for a nice drop...but not until the last bears are squashed and we see new highs. I'm seeing some waning momentum readings but I think we still need to hit 1,500 first...1,425 to 1,500 to 1,300?
ReplyDeleteI still think the plan should be to focus on overseas investments particularly Japan. The yen run appears to be finished and this will have profound effects on the Japanese economy...at a time when people have completely written off everything related to it. I think the 23 year bear market for the Nikkei is over.
DeleteIf this is the case then it doesn't really matter what happens to the US markets.
DeleteThe US remains the largest importer of Japanese goods, so I think it matters. China and India might replace the US in that regard, but China in particular will be pushing domestic products.
DeleteA fall from 1,500 to 1,200 S&P isn't going to significantly reduce demand. A falling yen is much more important...it reverses the anti-competitive argument based on prices...it boosts profits etc etc.
Delete" I think the 23 year bear market for the Nikkei is over."
DeleteI'm not anticipating any spectacular climbs but yeah perhaps the descent has abated. These Japanese companies will still need janitorial and valet services for their corporate headquarters but my guess is in order to gain substantial positions in China they will be forced to build their R&D and manufacturing primarily in China. Perhaps this better explains my long standing tendency towards commodities.
Anyway, my thesis contends these are international corporations, yet they will maintain a token presence in their homeland for customary and honorary reasons. Perhaps this explains Toyota's immense popularity in Japan, they still maintain a out-sized presence?
I call this the Wal-Mart phenomenon, move to China or get cast aside.
I also think that there are good opportunities in Europe now, especially in the really beaten down markets. A lot of their stocks are international, but much cheaper than similar US ones.
DeleteThe hard part is that in the US, it is easy to buy smallcaps with large upside, whereas in Europe and Japan, you pretty much have to stick with the large caps or get a fund. You also have to be careful about withholding taxes on dividends.
I bet there are internet street cameras of Yodobashi Camera store at Shinjuku station in Tokyo(Kiyoto spelled backwards), I always used to gauge the Japanese economy judging by the traffic around that store.
DeleteAlso, they used to pack like sardines(quite literally, good morning Mr. Fish-breath!) into trains for the morning ride into Shinjuku, you literally cannot get into the station during this morning window due to the wall of people coming out. I should say, that's how it used to be.
Thus ends the morning selling opportunity for underwater longs.
ReplyDeleteThis market is nothing less than an ugly monster.
Delete630 am to 730 am PST is often referred to as amateur hour. If you're quick, you can make some money. We need to follow market action for a few hours longer, however, to really gauge reaction to Republicans tabling Plan B.
ReplyDeleteI prefer plan O anyway, b/c this is the plan that was elected by "the people". Not sure who this plan really belongs to, could be Corporate America for all I know.
DeleteThe Republican party desperately needs a comprehensive series of college level courses on what public service is all about.
MLNX - Ha, see where this POS stopped right in it's tracks? $61.87 on the nose.
ReplyDeleteI guess they hold it under this price for months trying to shake everyone out who bought during the day of 12/19
DeleteSeems like this is just a game for someone.
Looks like bull flag forming within today's session, hell I don't know......
DeleteHII - I still can't figure this chart out....
ReplyDeleteAGO - Man, I can't believe that was a new low. Maybe this thing really will come back to me after all?
ReplyDeleteSVM - I have yet to see this one drop under $5 and stay there for any length of time, as if someone dutifully comes to drag it back above.
ReplyDeleteDEER was once that way for quite a while.
My Browser - Man, there's a script running in my browser that causes it to suck up 100% of CPU time and hang about every 30 seconds.
ReplyDeleteThanks, software engineers, for making it so I can't stop an out of control script without having to shut down my browser........
I think we've all tried shorting here and generally without much success - I know I am in that boat. Saw this quote from Warren Buffet today about why it is actually so hard:
ReplyDelete“Charlie and I both have talked about it, we probably had a hundred ideas of things that would be good short sales. Probably 95 percent of them at least turned out to be, and I don’t think we would have made a dime out of it if we had been engaged in the activity. It’s too difficult,” he explained, suggesting that the timing of short investments is crucial. “The whole thing about ‘longs’ is, if you know you’re right, you can just keep buying, and the lower it goes, the better you like it, and you can’t do that with shorts.”
Shorting at resistance levels works pretty well if you're keenly aware of current events such as what Boehner had for lunch.
DeleteMLNX - Yeah bullsh*t, this operpriced POS's not going up, it's going down like a lead balloon.
ReplyDeleteJust admit the mistake, so we can move on.
"and concentrate on its core imaging, mobile handset and game segments."
ReplyDeleteYes. I suspect (suggest?) they combine the two into an iPod/Samsung killer. Lever the music, movie content and games into a killer mobile device.
Got shares in a small Canadian energy services company today called ENS on the TSX venture - someone is either panic selling or getting margin called or really wants a tax loss, but is down 23% today and 45% for the month on no news - unless it's not non-public bad news, should get a bounce into January.
ReplyDeleteThe 'wear down.' Keep prices propped up all day long, wear down the bears + wear out the bulls hoping for lower entry prices. Then drop the ---- out of prices.
ReplyDeleteI think it's the market calling BS on the fiscal curb.
DeleteI notice a lot of the div payers are taking a 5% haircut to offset the rise in taxes after 1/1.
I think no deal may be better than a deal with the fat cats.
Remember the Euro crisis? We have a deal, no deal, no deal, deal, no deal....
Now we have the trumped up fiscal curb...deal, no deal, deal...NONE of this BS solves the real problem.
Good article at FT on why it hedge funds are doing so poorly and the leading to why trends last so long and why it has become so difficult to market time.
ReplyDeleteRIMM @ 11.17...
ReplyDeleteRIMM!???! Yahoo!!!!
DeleteAdded @ 11.
DeleteGot get um bro!!
DeleteMITK- LOL!!! Look at the comment! http://www.miteksystems.com/blog/12/20/12/highlights-of-2012-and-a-look-ahead-to-2013
ReplyDeleteAUMN @ 4.58...
ReplyDeleteI don't know... I just sold 1K shares at $4.58, as the 3-month chart is showing a clear triple top after a large rally. A significant pullback can happen here. Placed a buy limit order for 1K shares at $4.00, so as to buy back cheaper the shares I just sold.
Delete1K shares? Don't you have like 50K?
DeleteIf you add up my call options, I have an exposure to 65K shares. :) Since I had no spare cash left, all I wanted to do with this sale is to free up a little cash so as to be able to make a trade (buy back at a lower price), so as not to feel that I have totally missed out on this opportunity.
DeleteBut honestly, I just wanted the market to prove me wrong with this sale -- it was my devious attempt to stop the decline in AUMN. :)
DeleteGot it.
Delete"So considering how the market has climbed and climbed the fiscal cliff wall of worry, what will be the final end result, will it be an astounding sell the news event?"
ReplyDeleteThat's assuming those jerks are able to get a deal before the New Year. Otherwise, we'll get a massive "sell the absence of news" event.
My guess is if it does result in a default, PM's will fly. Hearkening back to the debt ceiling limit f-up on this.
DeleteWashington isn't full of clowns, it's full of hubris and thievery.
GG @ 35.22...
ReplyDeleteSLW @ 34.38...
ReplyDeleteSNE @ 10.92...
ReplyDeleteme too bought back 1/2 same price
DeleteHLF- Damn. I've always wondered about this one.
ReplyDeleteLooking at prior support levels, I think there is a very good chance that the current pullback in AUMN stops at $4.2, and so I raised my current buy limit order from $4 to $4.2. If AUMN drops below $4, then I'll just buy more shares outright...
ReplyDeleteFrom Bruce Krasting:
ReplyDelete"Is it possible that the Mayans, in their infinite wisdom, somehow anticipated that Boehner would fail to bring any legislation that might patch the cliff? The Boehner “fail” happened last evening, it was already 12/21 in Asia. So far, the Mayans’ timing for the Beginning-of-the-End is spot on. The cracks in the system have been spreading ever since the fateful no-vote in Congress last night. At this point, we are faced with the very real prospect that those cracks will get longer and wider in the next few days. If this happens, people will start falling into the widening rifts.
I have watched, read and listened to almost all of the endless discussion on the topic of the cliff. I’m convinced that there is not a single commentator that has properly evaluated the economic consequences of failure to address the deadline that is now just days away.
All the analysis I’ve looked at considers the consequences to the 2013 economy of changing tax rates and reduced spending that will occur if no deal is reached. But this does not include the consequences of the retroactive tax increase for 2012 that will take place.
I wrote about this on November 14 (Link). To repeat, if we go off the cliff, as many as 60 million taxpayers will be forced to file a separate Alternative Minimum Tax form (unbelievably complicated). Of the 60 million, as many as 33 million will be faced with a higher 2012 tax bill. This will result in some folks digging into their pockets to pay Uncle Sam the extra $3,000 to $4,000 this will cost (a disaster for some). Others, will get a smaller refund that they think they are due (bye-bye to that trip to Disneyland). The numbers are big. The “surprise” 2012 tax that the cliff will bring comes to a very lumpy $100-120 Billion.
The drag from the 2012 AMT look-back will be felt in the first quarter. It will “feel” as if this is a 2.5% reduction in 1stQ GDP just from the AMT. By itself, the retroactive AMT tax will produce negative economic growth. ADD to this, the fiscal consequences that kick in on 1/1/13. If spending is adjusted by this much, it will translate into fall in economic activity in excess of 4% in the 1stQ. If the year gets off to such a dismal start, the US will face a technical recession in the first half of the year, the full year will be lucky to breakeven.
A very steep drop in activity in the USA for the next three-months is not in the market’s mind today. It’s as if investors have forgotten that Europe and Japan are already in recession and China is still a question mark. Now we face the prospect of a very hard landing for the US.
Maybe the Mayans had it right all along…"
This is JMO, but Krasting has lost it.
DeleteWhat don't you like above his piece above?
DeleteWe're not going off any cliff, bro. No way.
DeleteNKE powering higher.
ReplyDeleteMonster
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sk3sURDS4IA
I haven't heard that in years!!
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpoEmlxUPeQ&list=PLC7752BCB2F2A615A
DeleteIf NSPH doesn't close at 2.83 or higher, I'm canceling the caterer for Patricia's families Christmas party here Sunday.
ReplyDeleteWay to go, dude. Kick the in-laws.
DeleteBought more SNE at $10.92. Only a small add.
ReplyDeleteIve been adding 1K share lots on NSPH the past 3 days just to F with the tape.
Deleteadded NSPH TOO
DeleteOpening RYPMX at the close.
ReplyDeleteVELT is a monster.
ReplyDeleteIs it an ugly monster CP?
DeleteMaybe this one can gap up and we get another island reversal.
My bike ride today is going to be a pain train!!!
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteAckman's Pershing Square Launches Website Dedicated to Herbalife (HLF)
I read where the short float is like 24 mil shares and he has 20 mil of them. Let's all buy and give him a lesson.
DeleteIt really hard to believe it's all totally legal. Has to make up for JCP I guess.
Delete300K share buyside imbalance for AUMN.
ReplyDeleteNCQ bought back some at 1.87 that I sold at 2.01 small
ReplyDeleteAdded more SNE at $10.92 before close.
ReplyDelete"Ive been adding 1K share lots on NSPH the past 3 days just to F with the tape."
ReplyDeleteReally?
Offed RIMM after hours @ 10.82. I don't trade on hope. I'm OK with everything else.
ReplyDeleteUsed the proceeds to make a lateral move into AUMN, which for some reason filled @ 4.58/4.59.
DeleteActually, 2000 shares filled at 4.58, and another 2140 filled at 4.5856. The last 560 shares still displays as a pending bid.
DeleteSome pretty big adjustments into the close: upward for AUMN, downward for GMO.
ReplyDeleteWas I indeed able to put a floor under AUMN with my "sacrifice" of 1K shares at $4.58? If so, then I'll be a happy camper. :)
Thanks, bro. I just don't know how long I can hold onto the position (now approaching 10k shares).
DeleteIt appears I was right to exit RIMM as soon as I sensed 'hope' attached to the trade.
ReplyDeleteSome whacky trades went off into the close on a lot of stocks:
ReplyDeleteSTS
Z
AUMN
FB
DMND
MMYT
So I'm long and strong as of the close. Mainly due to a bet on 'selling exhaustion' on the part of traders- overnight on the ES, and especially in the mining sector. We'll find out next week, which is seasonally the strongest of the year.
ReplyDeleteRYPMX closes @ 59.93. If this turns out to be a 'low,' then technically it will be a higher low than the December 6 close of 59.58.
ReplyDeleteTime for Boehner to work out a surprise deal with Obama before Monday's open.
ReplyDeleteThat would be the ultimate market move. Global investors who dumped on Friday's Plan B bashing get screwed on Monday's 2% gap up across the board. Nikkei/Hang Seng/DAX all open at YTD highs.
Delete"We're not going off any cliff, bro. No way."
DeleteIf the Republicans did not agree to approve Boehner's plan B because he proposed to increase taxes for those making over $1M, and the most Obama could do was to relax his criterion from taxing everyone above $250K to taxing everyone above $400K, then to my untrained eye the mathematical intersection of these two sets is an Empty Set. I doubt that Obama will agree to no tax increases, and thus no compromise will probably be reached before January 1 and they will simply start focusing on attributing the blame for the upcoming recession.
No faith in human nature? These guys have brought us to the brink of disaster every time. They freaking love the drama.
Delete2nd_ave -- raising the debt ceiling was easy, and I did not doubt for a second that it will be done. The current issue, however, is much more complicated as it requires people to abandon their long-cherished identity (a Republican, by definition, must be opposed any tax increases, especially on the wealthy people who run businesses).
DeleteSo it is precisely my faith in the constancy of human nature and human psychology that leads me to doubt that a tax compromise will be reached before January 1.
DeleteTOF- Yes. I like to see if there are ADF bids out there we can't see. None of my buys the last few days went through them.
ReplyDeleteSAN FRANCISCO--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Glu Mobile Inc., a leading global developer and publisher of freemium games for smartphone and tablet devices, today reiterated that it has no current intention to raise additional capital through an offering of any kind. The prospectus supplement that the company filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission related solely to the sale of a warrant to purchase 216,494 shares of Glu’s common stock that was issued in Glu’s August 2010 private placement transaction by the original warrant holder. Glu fulfilled its contractual obligation under the private placement agreements to file a prospectus supplement to name the new holder of the transferred warrant.
ReplyDelete“As we stated during our last earnings conference call, we expect to reach sustained profitability without access the equity capital markets or incur any debt,” said Niccolo de Masi, Glu President and CEO. “We continue to anticipate achieving an improvement in adjusted EBITDA during Q1 2013 from Q4 2012 guidance levels and with over $24 million in cash and no debt as of September 30th, we have no need nor current intention to raise capital.”
I wonder if Ackman had a rough childhood. He's long and short Johnson at the same time.
ReplyDeleteSmart guy, but don't think I'd want to have a beer with him.
DeleteInteresting that YRCW and a lot of the other trucking stocks were up today. That's a sign of confidence in the economy, not fear of politicians.
ReplyDeleteYour buy may work out very well 2nd and get you to the +20% year.
Do any of you subscribe to Hulbert?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-gold-finally-a-contrarian-buy-2012-12-19
CPST- Is this a crazy stock or what. Other than 2 weird periods, it's basically been a buck for 6 years.
ReplyDeleteWell, finally restarted my browser, rebooted the entire shebang. Runs like new.....
ReplyDeleteNot sure what to anticipate going forward, absent an accurate mechanism for keeping track of days as they whiz by. Hate to pay for this convenience though and I misplaced my stone chisel somewhere, a complementary replacement would be nice.
I have to reboot my PC every couple of weeks. It usually gets messed up by big PDF's or the Flash keeps crashing for some reason. I figure some program must have a memory leak or is not cleaning up properly and memory is being locked up. Sometimes I can get lucky and have things speed up just by shutting a few windows and the memory seems to get released. The easiest way to get more time between reboots is to add memory. I tried but mine is already fully loaded, so the next things will be to get a new PC when this gets too frustrating.
DeleteOr buy an AAPL.
Deletenew post
ReplyDelete