Friday, December 7, 2012
12/8/12 Multi State of Mind
It ain't easy. But neither is it impossible to make serious gains day in and day out. tof is correct in saying we need to multitask when it comes to managing our portfolios. Having at least one position 'in play' deters us from over-thinking/micromanaging the others (ie, killing them off before they begin to rip).
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Thought I'd pop in and say hello.
ReplyDeleteI've been just a tad busy giving birth to this ball of joy- jessestine.com
Hope everyone has been kicking ass and taking names! Hope all is well. -Jesse
Holy ----, bro. That was a good read, kind of like the opening minutes of a good film. Very well-written. It's not so much one's writing style that grabs me, but how 'true' a reflection it is of the author. We can usually tell when someone's being straight- or not. And if they're being straight, then it's always mesmerizing.
DeleteDude!!! GTFO! I'm so stoked for you. I'll read it as soon as I get back tonight.
DeleteAwesome Jesse! Paying it forward....
DeleteGlad u guys like it! It only took me a couple thousand hours and 700 pounds of coffee to throw together:) This evening, I decided to throw together my annual forecast 3 weeks early. What I'm finding is blowing my mind. Follow TOF. He's spot on...
DeleteWe'll give you a pass if you're inebriated.
ReplyDeleteSD - Mark, WTF I thought you had our backs covered in the oil patch? Sheesh!
ReplyDeleteas of right now, in addition to Z and my pos AMBS, here is my updated list of best setups:
ReplyDeleteIRE
WFR
MOTR
SID
XCO
PGH
BTU
ANR
by the way, david - AUMN is looking quite good. classic W pattern with RSI on weekly chart in a rising trend since march. MACD bottomed out before the bottom in the stock back late last year, creating a positive divergence.
Deleteafter learning the hard way with plenty of trades in the past, i try as best as i can to avoid trying to time a bottom. it's pretty evident that you can wait for a bottom and then a subsequent retest of that bottom or a nasty pullback to a higher low and then buy it there. the setup is much lower risk. there are only two exceptions to this rule: (1) if RSI(7) on daily chart is below 7 then it is EXTREMELY oversold and due for a hard bounce and (2) if i know the fundamental story well enough and can see a positive catalyst. this is what happened with Z.
the only caveats i have with AUMN and metals in general is the underlying PM Gold and Silver are not yet triggering buy signals. in a perverse way, though, that could be a good thing as most likely a lot of people are waiting for that to happen in order to go long the miners. as always the more left off the train the better.
DeleteNo FSLR? No ACI?
DeleteSo Jesse and I met up about two months ago here in San Diego while he was in town and he gave me the lowdown on his book and we caught up on investing tales. Good times. I was sworn to secrecy about what he was working on and I'm glad he has decided to share it with you guys since I was bursting at the seams! JK but anyway best of luck Jesse. I'll be buying the book and recommending it to friends.
ReplyDelete2nd - I re-read your opener and it made me think about the disparity between a lot of our own investing styles and BB, for example. In my opinion there is no way I could manage as many positions as him. I understand his style and think it works well: buying undervalued companies and waiting until they become fully valued. However, I've focused so much on trading patterns and the associated fundamentals with each company that I tend to focus intently on a few names and follow them closely, which would never allow me the opportunity to follow more than a handful of stocks at any given time with the amount of attention they deserve, in my opinion. But I understand that our styles are different and that both can work. That's the important thing, I guess: finding a style that works well and works with your personality.
by the way, the beauty of blogging like this is our thoughts come across unfiltered. We don't need an editor to control our correct our thoughts. It's a stream of consciousness.
DeleteI agree that finding the style that works for your personality is key.
DeleteWhen I play chess on chess.com, my rating in the top 5% when I play longterm games where you can up to 3 days to make a move and read books, etc. to research strategies (obviously no using of chess programs), but in the 2 hour games my rating drops and it is lower than average in bullet chess (under 2 minute games).
This tells me that my style of investing - research a stock, look for unusual undervaluations, but at (hopefully) lows works well with my personality. If I used short term trading, trying to make fast good decisions and jumping in and out, I would probably do worse than average as I do in chess, but making longer term decisions hopefully has me in the top 5% of investment returns.
One's personality is defintely the key, it must suit you or you will not be happy.
DeleteBB Chess.com is wonderful site. Funny when I moved to Hawaii I only played slow chess. I started hanging out clubs here they only play 5 min chess which I hated, now I dislike slow and feel I lack the patience needed. Your rating must be over 2000.
jessestine.com
ReplyDeleteOk, how come I can not find this on search using Bing, where did you guys find this?
At first I thought he had a baby, now it sounds like he wrote a book.
DeleteVery cool Jessse,
ReplyDeleteok, it never hurts to have an XTRA S for a rainy day.
DeleteTOF, i have 5000 shares of AMBS now at a cost of -69.55. Whats our next sell target?
ReplyDeleteJesse you’re a tease! I cannot wait for its release.
ReplyDeleteWhen I read what you write you remind me of Tony Robbins for his enthusiasm and optimism, a sincere compliment to you. I have always believed that a mind stretched even without complete comprehension is a better mind indeed.
I have truly enjoyed what I have read so far.
Kelly Criterion, agood book about this is "Fortune's Formula" by William Poundstone.
Read the preview. I'll be downloading the free copy when it's available plus I'll be ordering 3 books when they become available on amazon.
ReplyDeleteThanks Jesse
Not sure if this means anything or not.
ReplyDeleteBy Targeted News Service
ALEXANDRIA, Va., Dec. 9 -- Nanosphere, Northbrook, Ill., has been assigned a patent (8,323,888) developed by six co-inventors for "nanoparticles having oligonucleotides attached thereto and uses therefor." The co-inventors are Chad A. Mirkin, Wilmette, Ill., Robert L. Letsinger, Wilmette, Ill., Robert C. Mucic, Glendale, Calif., James J. Storhoff, Evanston, Ill., Robert Elghanian, Wilmette, Ill., and Thomas A. Taton, Little Canada, Minn. The abstract of the patent published by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office states: "The invention provides methods of detecting a nucleic acid. The methods comprise contacting the nucleic acid with one or more types of particles having oligonucleotides attached thereto. In one embodiment of the method, the oligonucleotides are attached to nanoparticles and have sequences complementary to portions of the sequence of the nucleic acid. A detectable change (preferably a color change) is brought about as a result of the hybridization of the oligonucleotides on the nanoparticles to the nucleic acid. The invention also provides compositions and kits comprising particles. The invention further provides methods of synthesizing unique nanoparticle-oligonucleotide conjugates, the conjugates produced by the methods, and methods of using the conjugates. In addition, the invention provides nanomaterials and nanostructures comprising nanoparticles and methods of nanofabrication utilizing nanoparticles. Finally, the invention provides a method of separating a selected nucleic acid from other nucleic acids.
YOKU- Wow, that one really tanked.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. So when you look at the monthly charts for ANR, FSLR, and NOK, you can see that they each formed a bottom within the last 6 months and have started to rise. ANR has the most recent bottom. You can also see that volume has increased around the bottom too.
ReplyDeleteIn the book "How To Trade In Stocks" Livermore says that volume increases at pivot points. He may have also used the word inflection points but I don't remember.
NSPH blowing up just now on heavy buying.
ReplyDelete$NSPH receives FDA 510(k) clearance for c.difficile toxin gene amplification assay. http://stks.co/oGPP
DeleteWe were told this, so I'm going to try and sell a little into it.
And CPHD rallies on the news!
Deletei think it's safe to say Z is volatile.
ReplyDeletelargish short position, makes it squeezy. That makes me queazy. But volatility makes $$$
DeleteUNG - Woof, woof!?!? Must be legislation issues?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Dang, can you believe they just couldn't wait to sell the pop again, knocking us right back into the downward channel? Just can't get benefit of doubt to join our side on this one.
Mark - Did you see where they dropped YOKU to? Almost exactly to the all time lows.
ReplyDeleteResidual GTC bids that have been sitting out there for years?
DeleteSNE is the mother of all buys at $9.60 as far as risk-reward goes. Look at how much RIMM and NOK moved recently. SNE is the next big cap tech stock to do so.
ReplyDeleteThis year has been all about big cap companies that have been crushed coming back to life and doubling or tripling in a matter of 3 to 6 months. Just look at NOK, RIMM, FSLR, WFR, etc. I think SNE is next.
DeleteWTF happened to Sony?
DeleteApple.
DeleteYahoo Finance lists one analyst following SNE. That just ain't right. If SNE symbolizes Japan, we're about to witness the fall of another great empire.
DeleteSNE - Don't get hung up on today's price, look at the chart(s).
DeleteUm, speaking of SNE, is AMD going to be their graphics chip vendor? I read one of AMD's tricks up their sleeve was graphics chips for game consoles but don't clearly recall the customer off hand.
NSPH - F'in negative territory now, this thing acts like a POS.....
ReplyDeleteThis blog is known for buying the latest and greatest POS, bro.
DeleteMark- It looks like you had all of 30 seconds to try selling the morning pop in NSPH?
ReplyDeleteAGO - $14.37 - I guess if today's open holds, we can conclude the breakout may be the real McCoy.
ReplyDeleteThe world just keeps turning and eventually rates are gonna shoot back up from these historic lows, right?
MET - Successful test of 20SMA, it appears.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Funkiest looking 5 day chart I've seen in a while.
ReplyDeleteThis is one indecisive market. I think it eventually pops on words of encouragement from Washington, but then ultimately dives on the reality of lower earnings. With the exception of certain pieces of ----, of course, where the worst has already been priced in.
ReplyDeleteSVNT looks like it's going to run again. Could see a 100% move quickly.
ReplyDeleteGood article at: http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-the-old-economy-renaissance-is-about-to-offer-opportunities-for-commodity-investors-not-seen-since-the-1990s-2012-12
ReplyDeleteGoldman thinks that non-gold commodities should do wellas pricing moves out of contango into backwardation on commodity pricing meaning that products like UNG may actually start making money over longer periods.
So ie: Goldman is preparing to short commodities?
DeleteOpening SNE @ 9.92 (long-term). I agree with tof. This sucker's coming back.
ReplyDeleteThe company has a book value of 23.75/share, and holds 15.49/share in cash.
DeleteI would give the position some room because it gets volatile down near the lows. I bought NOK at $1.87, stopped myself out at $1.8, watched it drop to $1.6ish, felt good...watched it spike up then completely retrace to $1.6ish all within a week or so...still felt good...then I entered a large position at a little above $2.00. Be prepared for some volatility. But I think the lows are just about in.
DeleteFollowed you...opened a position at $9.94.
DeleteOpening NSPH @ 2.79.
ReplyDeletePCP - This one sure kicked butt.
ReplyDeleteI haven't entertained the idea of PCP since the early 70's. Even then I decided against it.
DeleteYes, well either way PCP has a reputation for kicking butt.
DeleteWe've figured out you're a head in this area, thus we've pre-nicknamed you "Goof Butt". ;)
DeleteNat gas and UGAZ setting up for a nice buy.
ReplyDeleteIf only it was now 725 am Thursday morning.
Deleteha. my thoughts exactly.
DeleteWhy exactly is NGas selling off today?
Deletewho knows. i'm done trying to find explanations for short term moves in the market. is there really a fundamental reason for IRE being up 20% last month?
DeleteNG - The big rally for NG as I understand it comes with or in anticipation of legislation. With NG moving down it might pay to pull out the binoculars but long chart puts UNG at $30.
DeleteThe thing I don't like about long charts is my suspicion these commodity ETF vehicles tend to be rip-offs in a longer time horizon.
UGAZ small position opened @ 24.33...
ReplyDeleteOff @ 24.52...
Deleteabandon ship..i moved my Z into SNE....i just like the setup a lot better in that one and i feel like the run in Z ended in the short term. plus at a sub $10 Billion market cap i find SNE to be hard to ignore. AAPL generates that much cash in what like 5 months? are you kidding me?
ReplyDeletei know i'll be kicking myself for this move too.
Deletereally the smartest move to make is putting a piece in a few pots. but we're talking about dumb money here.
DeleteActually, I agree with you. Closed my long-term position in Z at 27.01 (for a 0.2x loss, but offset with the quick 0.3x gain last week), and added to a long-term position in SNE.
Deletebtw, you really should title comments like the above 'ABANDON SHIP!' That way, no one misses it.
DeleteX at 20 lomn-term, maybe, but I have short-term itis.
ReplyDeletelong-term
DeleteCP, I think mentioned SID, this looks good too.
I don't recall that one(SID), maybe dug it up at some point when I was looking over Brazilian stuff. My strategy for Brazil primarily involves a lower Real and agricultural growth opportunity, not sure how that works while every country on Earth seems to desire a weaker currency.
DeleteUp is down and down is up, what goes down must come out.
Yes, reminds one of spinning wheel.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE
T3d - I mentioned SID over the weekend or on Friday I think. Absolutely love it and was contemplating buying today but it's too overbought in the short term for my taste. I'd rather buy on an weak momentum reading than a strong one even if it's higher.
DeleteI undestand what you mean, that's what i was thinking abount ANR around 7.30 and now three days later its 8.90ish plus 20%.
Deleteyeah its tough man. have to constantly be thinking about risk-reward on your entry points because you can easily get shaken out if you time it wrong and it dips hard only to rebound harder.
DeleteCompanies like Sony don't just roll over and die. It was the greatest of the consumer electronics giants in the eighties and nineties, and continues to innovate and develop product lines. For instance, we bought 'the next big thing' for the big guy, and his entire class expects their own this Christmas> a PS Vita. A 2012 version of the Playstation with built-in WiFi/3G network connectivity/front and rear cameras/motion sensors. I think Sony ends up beating Q4 estimates.
ReplyDeleteI won't be able to resist the moment Goldman downgrades SNE, tell me they haven't yet?
DeleteI don't think they have an analyst following the company! Which IMO is even better.
DeleteI like it also. Have been following it from afar...I'll play along also. 2K @9.92.
DeleteHere's an ode to TOF's trading skills.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi9sLkyhhlE
Took a flyer on NCQ at 1.93, very spec
ReplyDeleteHow would you classify this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SNE:$NIKK&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p68604128277
I'm gonna go with oversold and due for a bounce.
Also, have you looked at the Yen lately? Wouldn't a weak yen be good for SNE? Something is diverging here...
One would think...
DeleteI think today confirms my belief that the nat gas companies are ready to run. ANR, BTU and the coals are flying yet Nat Gas is down. People will say that the nat gas companies can't run because Nat Gas looks to have topped out. I disagree. I think XCO looks good.
ReplyDeleteNG topped out? No, I don't think so, not according to the chart readers. One might think NG has topped if they're believers in fundamentals but isn't that kinda rear-view mirror mentality?
DeleteCP - yeah but I think a lot of traders are believing it has topped out...
DeletePAL - LOL, the drubbing continues.
ReplyDeleteNSPH saying commercialization of gram negative test in 2013. That is new...kinda.
ReplyDeleteSD/DECK...ouchie.
ReplyDeleteBuying SNE right here is like buying RIMM at $7.00 in the beginning of August or NOK at $2 in late July. The momentum readings I use are almost identically set up like those two were. 100% gains within 3 to 4 months is what I'm predicting based purely on charts.
ReplyDeleteCould Z give you that kind of return? Possibly but it would probably take a buyout for that.
DeleteNot that it means anything, but the higher end SNE TV's still dominate the market for my clients. I have 3 of them.
DeleteTOSBF - It just occurred to me to look this one over, which I intend on doing. Throwing the idea out there for grins.
DeleteNice chart. Nice P/S ratio - lots of room for upside.
DeleteHaven't looked into it, but the thing that is unusual is "equity holdings" on balance sheet is 3 times the size of shareholder equity. I know they always talk about cross-holdings in Japanese industry, but never seen anything like that before. Seems it could provide leverage both to upside and downside.
Probably some tax loss selling going on now too, so wouldn't surprise me to get a good bounce soon.
TOSBF?
DeletePretty decent day considering the size of the bomb that imploded in Italy today.
ReplyDeleteDMND...Just can't get it's nuts off the mat.
ReplyDelete