RYPMX closed near the same price I last dived in on the long side. Every sector has popped, except gold. I think we almost have to consider a trade. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
Hornitos for me. Have you tried the Costco marg mixer with Hornitos and orange liqueur? Not the Bols but cointreau or Grand Marnier.
I wanna try one of these:
Kerouac Cocktail Makes 1 drink From Kevin Diedrich of Burritt Room 1 3/4 ounces reposado Tequila 1/2 ounce Aperol 1/2 ounce Combier orange liqueur 1/2 ounce fresh lemon juice 3/4 ounce fresh grapefruit juice 1 dash agave syrup -- Grapefruit peel, for garnish Instructions: Combine all the ingredients, except the garnish, in a cocktail shaker. Fill with ice, shake and strain into a chilled cocktail glass. Garnish with a small piece of grapefruit peel.
Two of my last three trades (SNE and UGAZ) would have worked out had I been patient. On the other hand, VXX would have kicked my ---. And it's still ----ing with me this morning.
i didn't read the Marks essay but I did see a note about how he was saying the same thing in 2004. The market rallied about 40% over the next 3 years after that didn't it?
I read the essay(I think I did), and my take was simply his point is that prices run in cycles and that it often pays to be on the opposite side of the boat.
I thought to myself about Treasuries possibly falling into that category.
Internet Explorer - Yesterday my internet explorer stopped running and was sucking up 70% of processor time so I used Task Manager to stop the one process that was the culprit, each open tab is one process.
The problem went away and internet explorer began acting normally.
MLNX - Anyone notice the false moves up during sessions proceeding the huge smackdowns?
This appears to be a nasty habit.
NLY - This one may have topped, or it's consolidating. I'm not anticipating much of any upside from here, that's not why I'm holding it.
NSPH - Looks like it wants to pull back, only requires 20k shares to knock it down 2%.
AGO - Consolidating gains, I'd add trading shares if it fell near/below my entry at $13.83ish. Ultimate goal is upper $16's minimum. and $19's are entirely possible.
Is it possible 2013 will be the year where a single trade will do it? Wait for a correction, then buy in. I'm pretty sure that whatever worked for me in 2012 won't be the key to success in 2013.
AA - Interesting they're just now introducing lithium alloy, wonder how much longer we'll have to wait before transparent aluminum production comes online?
Wonder how it compares to the durability of magnesium alloy?
SNE is a multi-month/year trade. JUST BE PATIENT! Will it go lower? sure it can go lower. But the currency move + cost cutting will produce tremendous profits. Did you know that for every USD/JPY rise of 1 SNE generates an additional $25 Million in profits annually? Think of what it will do when USD/JPY rises to 120, especially when the market hasn't priced in the move from 75 to 88 which already has pushed $325 Million in additional profits to them. Toss in another $800 million in profits over the next two years from the currency move and you get a $1 Billion + profit boost just from currency. Add in another $1 Billion in cost cutting and an unforeseen amount in boosted demand for their products because of a reduced currency making them cheaper to a base line of business that does $85 Billion in revenues and probably will do $0.90 EPS in 2013 BEFORE those benefits and you get a business that could potentially do $3 EPS within a year or two. Think 15 X P/E and compare it to today's prices.
This is not a day trade or a week trade. Sit and hold it. Sleep well at night.
By the way, the market is setting up yet another bear trap. Gap up near YTD highs, drop it then continue the drop to 1,440. Get the media to talk about a failed break out, weak earnings, etc., then rip it to 1,500+.
FELE/TM/TTM/CYD/SWC/BC/TC(+40% in one month alone!)...... Recall the bearish garbage we were all subjected to daily as these were trading at 52wk lows?
Look at it this way, there may not be a shakeout of any magnitude if those stocks (and there are many) trading at new highs hold onto their gains then what little money does come out of them is gonna seek upside in companies like SNE.
SNE Risk is low even if there is a shakeout in those stocks currently trading at new highs as that capital needs somewhere to go.......
And apparently the FED's considering taking the punch bowl away, is that b/c they realize they'd better start?
It starts not so much with doing it as talking about it. Then the market does some of their work because the sheer magnitude of their easing is going to require some serious action to reverse. So one of their primary tools will be talk.
GDXJ - Is a $20+ close possible? The first step in a beautiful day for PM longs and a long road to recovery always begins with that first step.
Kinda like how a mechanic rips your car apart only far enough until he discovers the real problem(root cause). Hopefully he's capable of putting it back together the way it came apart or else it'll never be the same again.
T3d - in my post above i was merely pointing out what i think is coming down the line for SNE. that is, the drop in the currency is the spark that starts the fire. but there is much more to this: (1) they're shedding all non core assets and in doing so they're raising cash and becoming a more focused company (2) they're cutting costs tremendously (3) a dropping currency will make their products cheaper AND increase their profits (4) this is my opinion but i believe investors' desire to own AAPL has already peaked...those dollars are moving downstream as people see the NOK's of the world rip higher. SNE will become a direct beneficiary of this sentiment sea change.
it's a mean reversion trade. look at the other electronics companies that were crushed by Apple. RIMM, HPQ, NOK, etc are all rallying hard over the past 7 months. SNE is next. it's a massive company that trades at a 50% discount to its book value and is currently going through a major restructuring. sentiment is extremely negative on them. Just read the comments to any positive article on the company. price to sales is less than 1/2 of the crappy beaten down companies i listed above. that alone is insane.
i don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that they generate a $3 EPS in a couple of years if my call on the currency + the restructuring come to fruition. What will the market pay for that? conservatively i'd say 15 times. we all know that if it happens there will be a moment where it spikes to 20 or 25 times which makes this a 6 bagger over a few years. i won't still be in the trade by then but the possibility exists. i'm just looking to bag a 50 to 100% gain on the initial thrust higher and call it a day. it should happen in a 6 month time span if i'm right.
i'm seeing this breakout pattern all over the place. TZOO has a similar pattern...actually their pattern is almost identical to Z's before the breakout. if TZOO busts above $20 the most goes to $23.
This VG is another potential breakout pattern that is a bit different. a move above $2.5 projects to $3 initially. Valuation is so cheap with this one.
4 P/FCF Awesome balance sheet Buying back 10% of stock Potential catalyst with CALL running into potential legal issues/financial issues could move that money into VG 20+ ROE
With a biz generating that much cash flow they have plenty of room to do both it seems. they're increasing cap ex pretty significantly this year per their recent investor conference. this one kind of seems like a no brainer to me.
ALSK - Looks like the dividend was changed last year to 0.0%, not 10%..... Even my broker who supposedly follows this stock(they issue a rating) hasn't updated this fact.
Anyway, the lack of dividend should make this stock considerably less risky I'd think.....
"Does Alaska Communications pay dividends?
No. On November 1, 2012, Alaska Communications announced its board of directors suspended the common dividend. "
VTG - Doesn't this oil patch driller chart sorta look like a bull flag???? I don't like the way it's run so far into the end of the flag but maybe I'm overlooking something more powerful?
Lot of calls recently for a top in the next few days, Kass saying the high for the year even. Demark is the latest: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/demark-sees-s-p-500-falling-5-5-after-peak-near-1-500.html
Does that seem too easy or maybe we are likely to continue higher for longer getting more people to the bull side before a more substantial pullback?
I am finding stocks mainly at in-between prices where they are more expensive than I want top pay, b ut cheaper than I want to sell, so mnot doing much.
Hi folks, checking in today after skiing moguls yesterday at Sierra-at-Tahoe. The muscles in my whole body are aching now, but I suppose that means that my muscles are getting stronger...
Can someone explain what happened to $USD today? Why is it crashing?
here's my question ON SNE - you've probably thought of it but wanted to put it out there.
If the yen drops by 50% (80 to 120), the value of SNE, assuming nothing else changes, also drops by 50% as Sony is mainly valued on the Japanese market and SNE is just an ADR. So if the earnings go to $3 billion ($3 EPS) as you suggest, it will work out great. But if I look back over the last 10 years, Sony typically made about 120 Yen per share in the early 2000's (other than 351 Yen in 2008 and losses since). So if they go back to 120 Yen per share profit, with the drop in the exchange that is $1 US per share, so a stock price of $10 - $15 is probably fair depending on perceived growth prospects. The Yen to US$ was also around 120 in 2002 - 2003 period.
You can avoid this by hedging the Yen and thereby catching the increase in Sony value in Japan, but I don't think you are.
BB - to a US investor with ADRs all that matters is what they're making in USD after converting everything and how that compares to their market cap. investors will trade based on that. i think they have significant room to pare down costs. with a $85 Billion per year business i have faith that they can find a billion or so in costs to cut. in the past they have never had the incentive to restructure their business because they never faced a challenge like they now do with Apple and Samsung. i could go into a long winded explanation for why i think they will generate $X in profits and why looking at profits in the past when the Yen was at 120 is irrelevant and explaining why profits will be $X when the USD/Yen hits 120 but really all it comes down to in the market is how they are doing relative to the most recent past. that's what investors focus on.
it will be a cinch for them to beat earnings from prior periods due to restructuring and the falling Yen. so investors will see the turnaround and completely ignore everything else. for example, let's look at PIR...PIR in 2008 did the same level of sales as they did in 2012. shares outstanding in 2012 were 30% higher than 2008. competition was much greater in 2012 from online retailers / amazon / etc. however, a new management team was able to pare down costs and extract far more profits out of their business and generate $1.50 EPS vs a loss of $1.09 in 2008. The stock is up 100 fold since then on the same exact level of sales.
I realize I'm 'paying up' here for RYPMX. However, (a) miners can move 5-10% in the blink of an eye, and (b) I could be waiting for a pullback that doesn't happen. In any case, all trades are a bet. I'm betting they move higher.
i'm going to layer into a EDZ/TZA position to play what i think will be a downdraft into late January/early Feb. Starter here at old highs and will add at 1,500. I've been thinking the market comes back down to 1,370's on a quick drop but then heads to new highs so i'm going to play it and see how it works.
another tell that we're nearing a short term top: nat gas may have bottomed out (looks like it might have put in a double bottom and it continues to put in higher lows and highs).
President B.H.O. has recently appointed a Golf Czar. Major rule changes in the game of golf became effective January 1, 2013. This is only a preview as the complete rule book (expect 2716 pages) is being rewritten as we speak. Here are a few of the changes:
Golfers with handicaps: - Below 10 will have their green fees increased by 35%. - Between 11 and 18 will see no increase in green fees. - Above 18 will get a $20 check each time they play. The term "gimmie" will be changed to "entitlement" and will be used as follows: - Handicaps below 10, no entitlements. - Handicaps from 11 to 17, entitlements for putter length putts. - Handicaps above 18, if your ball is on the green, no need to putt, just pick it up. These entitlements are intended to bring about fairness and, most importantly, equality in scoring. In addition, a Player will be limited to a maximum of one birdie or six pars in any given 18-hole round. Any excess must be given to those fellow players who have not yet scored a birdie or par. Only after all players have received a birdie or par from the player actually making the birdie or par, can that player begin to count his pars and birdies again.
The current USGA handicap system will be used for the above purposes, but the term "net score" will be available only for scoring those players with handicaps of 18 and above. This is intended to "re-distribute" the success of winning by making sure that in all competitions every Player above an 18 handicap will post only "net score" against every other player's "gross score".
These new Rules are intended to CHANGE the game of golf. Golf must be about Fairness. It should have nothing to do with ability, hard work, practice, and responsibility.
This is the "Right thing to do." So, please remember; if you shot a round of golf under par, you didn't shoot it yourself. Someone else built that course, and someone else cut the grass so that you could play on it. Someone else built the clubs and the cart. You need to share with everyone and anyone who made you a successful golfer.
Here is an excerpt: "Today's ramp was brough to you by the algos that needed to enable high volume exits in AAPL and a Draghi-driven 200pip run in EUR against the USD (as the ECB head basically shut the door on rate cuts anytime soon)."
Folks, check out the PNPFF chart, both using the intraday 1-month data and daily over 1 year. It seems like a break out above $1 is a given over the next week...
Actually, the chart currently suggests that the breakout should happen tomorrow. So I decided to place a sell limit order at $1.05 for 5K shares I purchased in December at $0.85, so as to book a $1K profit and still have 13K shares remaining (ETrade shows that the average cost basis of my 18K shares is $0.87).
Cold gold. That sounds like Cuervo Gold on the rocks. Think I'll have one.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who went long VXX at inception and hasn't sold is now down -98.36%.
ReplyDeleteAlright. Just opened a very small position at 27.08. Kind of a ---- you trade.
DeleteI'm in no mood to short gold, that's for sure. I figure if it runs to $3~$4k I would though.
DeleteAsk is down to 27.07, so it's already a ---- me trade.
Delete27.06. OK, time for the Cuervo.
DeleteHornitos for me. Have you tried the Costco marg mixer with Hornitos and orange liqueur?
DeleteNot the Bols but cointreau or Grand Marnier.
I wanna try one of these:
Kerouac Cocktail
Makes 1 drink
From Kevin Diedrich of Burritt Room
1 3/4 ounces reposado Tequila
1/2 ounce Aperol
1/2 ounce Combier orange liqueur
1/2 ounce fresh lemon juice
3/4 ounce fresh grapefruit juice
1 dash agave syrup
-- Grapefruit peel, for garnish
Instructions: Combine all the ingredients, except the garnish, in a cocktail shaker. Fill with ice, shake and strain into a chilled cocktail glass. Garnish with a small piece of grapefruit peel.
A total of 28 posts on CC. Only 3-4 re miners, and a titanium company at that. We must be closing in on a gold trade.
ReplyDeleteEven if it's just a +1% move.
Delete"Only 3-4 re miners, and a titanium company"
DeleteSounds like a group of investors, hope they don't get clobbered.
Man, I actually have been WORKING all day...sheesh...
ReplyDelete'Bout time you did something to earn your keep.
DeleteThe MUX guy was on Fast Money today. Still calling for 5,000 POG. What struck me was how small he looked. He's he like 5 foot nothing?
ReplyDelete"calling for 5,000 POG."
DeleteTime horizon infinity? Same old reasons (too much debt)?
It always seems to move lower when they do that.
Mostly inflation, and to read between the lines it seemed like he was talking in a few years.
DeleteFor you SNE guys:
ReplyDeleteSony's Impressive 2013 Lineup Proves The Company Is Far From Obsolete
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/sony-ces-2013-2013-1?op=1#ixzz2HX88j7Za
I'm interested in the phone and watch. Looks like they beat apple to the punch.
DeleteNote II.
DeleteNSPH - The morning spikes are no more, I guess whomever was doing that learned a hard lesson.
ReplyDeleteRAS...Damn.
ReplyDeleteMy solar panel guy's last name is Lightman.
ReplyDeleteTwo of my last three trades (SNE and UGAZ) would have worked out had I been patient. On the other hand, VXX would have kicked my ---. And it's still ----ing with me this morning.
ReplyDeleteWell, UGAZ would have disappointed unless I'd sold early this morning.
DeleteGold spiking like a rocket to 1671.
ReplyDeleteWhere's the post from Dr. S pointing out the launch?
DeleteWonder why that is?
DeleteIt's always fun to bounce traders around.
DeleteDid Buffett just remove some uncertainty concerning the status of US banks?
ReplyDeleteWhen Buffett speaks, people listen. He can talk it up or down.
DeleteThe Marks essay nails it. You can feel left out when you're not running with the herd.
DeleteI still have that sense that the broad indexes are about to roll over.
DeleteRobot is still long from 1/1, Chinese exports beat expectation, complacency reins supreme.
DeleteI bet there's a slew of 52wk highs......
Has Russell 2000 reached it's geometric target? I haven't checked recently.
Banks up, oil up, gold up.
ReplyDeleteThat's the basic sequence, right?
PAL - I'm regretting not having thrown some of this one in my shopping cart when it fell under $1.20
ReplyDeletei didn't read the Marks essay but I did see a note about how he was saying the same thing in 2004. The market rallied about 40% over the next 3 years after that didn't it?
ReplyDeleteI read the essay(I think I did), and my take was simply his point is that prices run in cycles and that it often pays to be on the opposite side of the boat.
DeleteI thought to myself about Treasuries possibly falling into that category.
Internet Explorer - Yesterday my internet explorer stopped running and was sucking up 70% of processor time so I used Task Manager to stop the one process that was the culprit, each open tab is one process.
ReplyDeleteThe problem went away and internet explorer began acting normally.
MLNX - Anyone notice the false moves up during sessions proceeding the huge smackdowns?
ReplyDeleteThis appears to be a nasty habit.
NLY - This one may have topped, or it's consolidating. I'm not anticipating much of any upside from here, that's not why I'm holding it.
NSPH - Looks like it wants to pull back, only requires 20k shares to knock it down 2%.
AGO - Consolidating gains, I'd add trading shares if it fell near/below my entry at $13.83ish. Ultimate goal is upper $16's minimum. and $19's are entirely possible.
Is it possible 2013 will be the year where a single trade will do it? Wait for a correction, then buy in. I'm pretty sure that whatever worked for me in 2012 won't be the key to success in 2013.
ReplyDeleteSold the SNE I bought at $10.60+/- the other day.
ReplyDeleteSitting is Fing hard.
Plenty of gap moves on that thing.
DeleteSQNM - Big volume on down day yesterday, probably not good?
ReplyDeleteGMO - Looks like no sellers today, so far.
ReplyDeleteThey're all over at club MCP.
DeleteHoly crap, that's an understatement! Someone let one lose in the minefield.......
DeleteMine delays, what a surprise!
DeleteNOK would have been a good one to be patient on. $4.37 this morning.
ReplyDelete1468 - Strong resistance level holding, 1472 is the next hurdle.
ReplyDeleteCopper likes Chinese export news.
In a few Jig a Boo's!!
ReplyDeleteDude, what's up with the racial slurs, man? ;)
DeleteI have to agree. I think this is the second time I've seen this.
DeleteIf you don't know what it is, find out and stop.
If you know what it is, WTF?
AA - Interesting they're just now introducing lithium alloy, wonder how much longer we'll have to wait before transparent aluminum production comes online?
ReplyDeleteWonder how it compares to the durability of magnesium alloy?
I ----ed the SNE trade. I ----ed up the UGAZ trade. What's this telling me? Sit, for more than a freaking minute.
ReplyDeleteFurthermore, I missed the gold trade by a day.
ReplyDeleteThe gold trade is over? Perhaps my issue with gold is catching an 1% trade just doesn't appeal to me anymore.....
DeleteNaturally, all of the above still beats losing money.
ReplyDeleteHAYN - Someone really woke up on the wrong side of the bed today, didn't they?
ReplyDeleteSNE is a multi-month/year trade. JUST BE PATIENT! Will it go lower? sure it can go lower. But the currency move + cost cutting will produce tremendous profits. Did you know that for every USD/JPY rise of 1 SNE generates an additional $25 Million in profits annually? Think of what it will do when USD/JPY rises to 120, especially when the market hasn't priced in the move from 75 to 88 which already has pushed $325 Million in additional profits to them. Toss in another $800 million in profits over the next two years from the currency move and you get a $1 Billion + profit boost just from currency. Add in another $1 Billion in cost cutting and an unforeseen amount in boosted demand for their products because of a reduced currency making them cheaper to a base line of business that does $85 Billion in revenues and probably will do $0.90 EPS in 2013 BEFORE those benefits and you get a business that could potentially do $3 EPS within a year or two. Think 15 X P/E and compare it to today's prices.
ReplyDeleteThis is not a day trade or a week trade. Sit and hold it. Sleep well at night.
By the way, the market is setting up yet another bear trap. Gap up near YTD highs, drop it then continue the drop to 1,440. Get the media to talk about a failed break out, weak earnings, etc., then rip it to 1,500+.
Make sure you hit me on the head if SNE happens to dip into low $10's please, I have a thang about buying dips only. ;)
Delete"Get the media to talk about a failed break out, weak earnings, etc., then rip it to 1,500+."
Yeah, I'll go along with that one for sure. PLEASE gimme that one last scary shakeout!!!!!!
If he's right the shakeout means nothing.
Delete15 X P/E could you expand on that for this fundamental less mind TOF?
SNE has no P/E, so are you saying that with earnings and say a P/E of 5 the SNE trades at $75? that would be my conclusion.
FELE/TM/TTM/CYD/SWC/BC/TC(+40% in one month alone!)...... Recall the bearish garbage we were all subjected to daily as these were trading at 52wk lows?
DeleteSOSDD, huh?!?!?
Look at it this way, there may not be a shakeout of any magnitude if those stocks (and there are many) trading at new highs hold onto their gains then what little money does come out of them is gonna seek upside in companies like SNE.
DeleteSNE Risk is low even if there is a shakeout in those stocks currently trading at new highs as that capital needs somewhere to go.......
And apparently the FED's considering taking the punch bowl away, is that b/c they realize they'd better start?
It starts not so much with doing it as talking about it. Then the market does some of their work because the sheer magnitude of their easing is going to require some serious action to reverse. So one of their primary tools will be talk.
DeleteGDXJ - Is a $20+ close possible? The first step in a beautiful day for PM longs and a long road to recovery always begins with that first step.
ReplyDeleteKinda like how a mechanic rips your car apart only far enough until he discovers the real problem(root cause). Hopefully he's capable of putting it back together the way it came apart or else it'll never be the same again.
My GGN C&H prophecy is coming true.
ReplyDeleteI bet gold's action is helping a little.
DeleteYa think? LOL!
Delete"Sell your stocks" Is the message I'm still hearing.
ReplyDeleteYou have to sell into the rallies and reduce risk.
DeleteThe name of this game is risk management.
"You have to sell into the rallies and reduce risk."
DeleteConsidering the unrealistic valuations in many cases, I'd say selling is riskier than holding.
T3d - in my post above i was merely pointing out what i think is coming down the line for SNE. that is, the drop in the currency is the spark that starts the fire. but there is much more to this:
ReplyDelete(1) they're shedding all non core assets and in doing so they're raising cash and becoming a more focused company
(2) they're cutting costs tremendously
(3) a dropping currency will make their products cheaper AND increase their profits
(4) this is my opinion but i believe investors' desire to own AAPL has already peaked...those dollars are moving downstream as people see the NOK's of the world rip higher. SNE will become a direct beneficiary of this sentiment sea change.
it's a mean reversion trade. look at the other electronics companies that were crushed by Apple. RIMM, HPQ, NOK, etc are all rallying hard over the past 7 months. SNE is next. it's a massive company that trades at a 50% discount to its book value and is currently going through a major restructuring. sentiment is extremely negative on them. Just read the comments to any positive article on the company. price to sales is less than 1/2 of the crappy beaten down companies i listed above. that alone is insane.
i don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that they generate a $3 EPS in a couple of years if my call on the currency + the restructuring come to fruition. What will the market pay for that? conservatively i'd say 15 times. we all know that if it happens there will be a moment where it spikes to 20 or 25 times which makes this a 6 bagger over a few years. i won't still be in the trade by then but the possibility exists. i'm just looking to bag a 50 to 100% gain on the initial thrust higher and call it a day. it should happen in a 6 month time span if i'm right.
Great, thanks
Deletehttp://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MY&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1
ReplyDeletei'm seeing this breakout pattern all over the place. TZOO has a similar pattern...actually their pattern is almost identical to Z's before the breakout. if TZOO busts above $20 the most goes to $23.
sorry "then most likely goes to $23"
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThis VG is another potential breakout pattern that is a bit different. a move above $2.5 projects to $3 initially. Valuation is so cheap with this one.
ReplyDelete4 P/FCF
Awesome balance sheet
Buying back 10% of stock
Potential catalyst with CALL running into potential legal issues/financial issues could move that money into VG
20+ ROE
Yeah well, that PE makes me think it's not likely to fail.
DeleteI'd rather they not buy back 10% of stock, they should be growing the business instead.
DeleteWith a biz generating that much cash flow they have plenty of room to do both it seems. they're increasing cap ex pretty significantly this year per their recent investor conference. this one kind of seems like a no brainer to me.
Delete"Plenty of room"
DeleteYeah, those goal posts might be wide enough to drive a train through.
ALSK - Looks like the dividend was changed last year to 0.0%, not 10%..... Even my broker who supposedly follows this stock(they issue a rating) hasn't updated this fact.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, the lack of dividend should make this stock considerably less risky I'd think.....
"Does Alaska Communications pay dividends?
No. On November 1, 2012, Alaska Communications announced its board of directors suspended the common dividend. "
www.alsk.com
VTG - Doesn't this oil patch driller chart sorta look like a bull flag???? I don't like the way it's run so far into the end of the flag but maybe I'm overlooking something more powerful?
ReplyDelete1468 - Well we're through now, moving onto 1472
ReplyDeleteSteady as she goes captain, check you chart coordinates and keep an eye-eye peeled....
Lot of calls recently for a top in the next few days, Kass saying the high for the year even. Demark is the latest: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-10/demark-sees-s-p-500-falling-5-5-after-peak-near-1-500.html
ReplyDeleteDoes that seem too easy or maybe we are likely to continue higher for longer getting more people to the bull side before a more substantial pullback?
I am finding stocks mainly at in-between prices where they are more expensive than I want top pay, b ut cheaper than I want to sell, so mnot doing much.
Hi folks, checking in today after skiing moguls yesterday at Sierra-at-Tahoe. The muscles in my whole body are aching now, but I suppose that means that my muscles are getting stronger...
ReplyDeleteCan someone explain what happened to $USD today? Why is it crashing?
I guess it's a combination of news from Europe, but a stronger euro might not be good for German exports?
DeleteThe currency tug o' wars progressing, apparently?
CNH - Kinda makes one wonder if South America isn't planted(ing) from fence post to fence post.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeletehere's my question ON SNE - you've probably thought of it but wanted to put it out there.
If the yen drops by 50% (80 to 120), the value of SNE, assuming nothing else changes, also drops by 50% as Sony is mainly valued on the Japanese market and SNE is just an ADR. So if the earnings go to $3 billion ($3 EPS) as you suggest, it will work out great. But if I look back over the last 10 years, Sony typically made about 120 Yen per share in the early 2000's (other than 351 Yen in 2008 and losses since). So if they go back to 120 Yen per share profit, with the drop in the exchange that is $1 US per share, so a stock price of $10 - $15 is probably fair depending on perceived growth prospects. The Yen to US$ was also around 120 in 2002 - 2003 period.
You can avoid this by hedging the Yen and thereby catching the increase in Sony value in Japan, but I don't think you are.
Not that I'm saying SNE doesn't make a great trade here - you are far better at that than I am, but just trying to think this through.
DeleteA currency hedge seems perfectly logical to me, it's a very normal part of conducting international business inclusive of manufacturers such as Sony.
DeleteBB - to a US investor with ADRs all that matters is what they're making in USD after converting everything and how that compares to their market cap. investors will trade based on that. i think they have significant room to pare down costs. with a $85 Billion per year business i have faith that they can find a billion or so in costs to cut. in the past they have never had the incentive to restructure their business because they never faced a challenge like they now do with Apple and Samsung. i could go into a long winded explanation for why i think they will generate $X in profits and why looking at profits in the past when the Yen was at 120 is irrelevant and explaining why profits will be $X when the USD/Yen hits 120 but really all it comes down to in the market is how they are doing relative to the most recent past. that's what investors focus on.
Deleteit will be a cinch for them to beat earnings from prior periods due to restructuring and the falling Yen. so investors will see the turnaround and completely ignore everything else. for example, let's look at PIR...PIR in 2008 did the same level of sales as they did in 2012. shares outstanding in 2012 were 30% higher than 2008. competition was much greater in 2012 from online retailers / amazon / etc. however, a new management team was able to pare down costs and extract far more profits out of their business and generate $1.50 EPS vs a loss of $1.09 in 2008. The stock is up 100 fold since then on the same exact level of sales.
This assumes $USD strengthens or remains the same, right? If $USD also weakens, then it's all a hedge.
DeleteWho knows what hedges SNE may have implemented themselves, it's not unreasonable to think they have.
DeleteBlow off top coming, or will shorts begin capitulating?
ReplyDeleteMiners/gold act like they want to head higher. Reopening RYPMX at the close.
ReplyDeleteI realize I'm 'paying up' here for RYPMX. However, (a) miners can move 5-10% in the blink of an eye, and (b) I could be waiting for a pullback that doesn't happen. In any case, all trades are a bet. I'm betting they move higher.
DeleteNSPH - Bow Tie or not, this thing feels like it's stalled out.
ReplyDeleteYes, I'm still holding my ---- you bet on VXX. Down about $200 at the moment.
ReplyDeleteLong EDZ at $8.67 for a trade.
ReplyDeleteI also closed my TZOO at breakeven. can't help but pay attention to what appears to be negative divergences for the market shorter term.
ReplyDeletei'm going to layer into a EDZ/TZA position to play what i think will be a downdraft into late January/early Feb. Starter here at old highs and will add at 1,500. I've been thinking the market comes back down to 1,370's on a quick drop but then heads to new highs so i'm going to play it and see how it works.
Deleteanother tell that we're nearing a short term top: nat gas may have bottomed out (looks like it might have put in a double bottom and it continues to put in higher lows and highs).
ReplyDeleteEntered TZA after hours at $11.98 for a starter position.
ReplyDeleteWFC - Okay, let's see those results!!!
ReplyDeletePresident B.H.O. has recently appointed a Golf Czar. Major rule changes in the game of golf became effective January 1, 2013. This is only a preview as the complete rule book (expect 2716 pages) is being rewritten as we speak. Here are a few of the changes:
ReplyDeleteGolfers with handicaps:
- Below 10 will have their green fees increased by 35%.
- Between 11 and 18 will see no increase in green fees.
- Above 18 will get a $20 check each time they play.
The term "gimmie" will be changed to "entitlement" and will be used as follows:
- Handicaps below 10, no entitlements.
- Handicaps from 11 to 17, entitlements for putter length putts.
- Handicaps above 18, if your ball is on the green, no need to putt, just pick it up.
These entitlements are intended to bring about fairness and, most importantly, equality in scoring. In addition, a Player will be limited to a maximum of one birdie or six pars in any given 18-hole round. Any excess must be given to those fellow players who have not yet scored a birdie or par. Only after all players have received a birdie or par from the player actually making the birdie or par, can that player begin to count his pars and birdies again.
The current USGA handicap system will be used for the above purposes, but the term "net score" will be available only for scoring those players with handicaps of 18 and above.
This is intended to "re-distribute" the success of winning by making sure that in all competitions every Player above an 18 handicap will post only "net score" against every other player's "gross score".
These new Rules are intended to CHANGE the game of golf. Golf must be about Fairness. It should have nothing to do with ability, hard work, practice, and responsibility.
This is the "Right thing to do." So, please remember; if you shot a round of golf under par, you didn't shoot it yourself. Someone else built that course, and someone else cut the grass so that you could play on it. Someone else built the clubs and the cart. You need to share with everyone and anyone who made you a successful golfer.
An explanation for today's drop in $USD from ZeroHedge:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-10/forget-rotation-2013-great-risk-recoupling-so-far
Here is an excerpt: "Today's ramp was brough to you by the algos that needed to enable high volume exits in AAPL and a Draghi-driven 200pip run in EUR against the USD (as the ECB head basically shut the door on rate cuts anytime soon)."
Folks, check out the PNPFF chart, both using the intraday 1-month data and daily over 1 year. It seems like a break out above $1 is a given over the next week...
ReplyDeleteActually, the chart currently suggests that the breakout should happen tomorrow. So I decided to place a sell limit order at $1.05 for 5K shares I purchased in December at $0.85, so as to book a $1K profit and still have 13K shares remaining (ETrade shows that the average cost basis of my 18K shares is $0.87).
Delete