Just as a note, if you buy any of these overseas stocks, you should include the native listing (VIE.PA) in the stocks you follow as Yahoo Finance at least only links many of the news stories to the native stock and not the US-listed ADR.
When I said a couple of weeks ago that AAPL would be a drag on the market for a long time, I didn't think it would be so dramatic and so fast. But, other than playing for an oversold bounce here (which is not my style), I'd still avoid AAPL, probably for a very long time, like years.
Note how the market is ----ing with everyone. Broad indexes (ex-AAPL) up. Gold down. Volatility down.
If you don't like the positions you're holding, close them and move on to something else. Recall one of the most widely used quotes in this blog> 'I don't want to be a product of my environment. I want my environment to be a product of me.'
Got Random Thoughts? Well, the Ps didn't set the world on fire but they did manage to close at multi-year highs. As a trend follower, you can't argue with that. If B is higher than A and C is higher than B, then if a market is going from A to C, it has to make new highs by passing through B. It's not always that simple but you get the idea. New highs is a good thing and should not be ignored.
So, I should be happy, right? Well, I'm happy (but not "Happy, happy, happy" like Phil Robertson). I'm glad the market is making new highs. I remain concerned about the overbought nature of the market. With that said, I'd like to see it accelerate higher (vs. drifting) to become even more overbought and then have an orderly correction.
Like Mick once said, "You can't always get what you want." And it markets, you take what you get and you don't throw a fit. So overall, so far so good.
Internally the market was a little soft but not enough to worry about. Most sectors remain at or near new highs. Some, like Retail, which had been lagging, are now joining in the party.
So what do we do? Since the market only had a slight change, not much has changed in the game plan. Continue to enjoy the ride on your existing longs. As far as new positions, I hate buying into an overbought market. The good news is that since I'm a pullback trader, I'm not seeing many setups at this juncture and likely won't until the market corrects a bit. I still like the areas that can trade contra to the overall market, especially while it remains overbought. Selected commodities, speculative technology issues like the Solars, and selected IPOs are examples here. I haven't completely forgotten about the short side just yet. Here, I like the big cap issues that have lost steam as of late. As I preach, these previous high fliers could be a source of funds if the market continues to rally and if the market sells off, the bigger they are, the harder they will fall. Said alternatively, I think these issues can trade contra to the overall market too.
No matter what you do, continue to take things one day at a time and practice proper money and position management-honor your stops on existing positions and wait for entries on new ones. You'd be surprised how far those two things will go towards keeping you in the game for a long time.
Futures are weak pre-market.
If you're not saving lives, negotiating world peace treaties, or doing other great and wonderful things around 11:00 this morning, then come to the show.
How do these analysts simply go from a PT of 90 to 50 and just maintain a buy rating? Shouldn't they be forced to sit in the penalty box for a few weeks?
It's pretty obvious the company hired analysts to pump up the stock, gave copious amounts of shareholder wealth to the employees, then the employees rang the cash register.
mark - shorting here is suicide. i can attest to that! the best thing to do is wait for diverging momentum readings. i should have taken my own advice as i had a really good feeling last night that they would juice the market higher and set the ultimate bull trap as people say man this market is so strong even apple can't bring it down. i believe that's what's happening but the prudent thing is to wait for confirmation in the momentum readings. that's the same thing i do on the bottoms and it probably works about 80 to 90% of the time. the only times it doesn't work is when there are blowoff tops and bottoms. this might be one of the times.
i guess i can take solace in the fact that i'm not shorting stocks like NFLX. in the grand scheme of things TZA is down 2.3% today which is really not that big of a hit if I believe we're setting up for a 15% drop in the markets and up to 20% in the russell 2000. had i made a lateral move into SID which i was considering i would only be outperforming myself by 1%.
to me i still see a scenario where TZA gets to $16 in March. doesn't look bloody likely now but that's the beauty of markets...the unforeseen can and almost always does happen.
I question shorting the russell. It's the big caps that are priced for perfection and rolling over. The IWM has been out-performing the DJIA/S&P and certainly the Q's.
On the other side, I've been selling into this rally to lower my carried risk. Not shorting yet but I can see that light in the far end of the tunnel.
In the back of my mind cannot get out the idea of 1987 when the mkt ran from Jan to Oct without letting you in. I know its a low probability, but it would screw with the most people.
(1) IWM almost always outperforms on the downside (2) there is almost always a January effect where the Russell outperforms the overall market (3) The Russell 2000 has a p/e of over 18 whereas the overall market is around 15 times.
all of these factors went into my decision to short it.
I'm trading what I see, not history. So I chuck out #1 & 2. I only trade charts (technicals and prices) so I don't have any concept of p/e. Besides. P/E is as made up as beating by a penny.
here's a good example of something showing diverging momentum readings: EUR/USD (or FXE etf). the peak reading on this was on 9/14/12. since then the RSI_EMA reading has seen lower highs on 12/3/12, 12/20, and 1/14. the price has trended higher over that time period. to me it looks like it's set to fall and today would be an ideal time to start buying puts in it or shorting it.
In other words, short euro, correct? If so, I tend to agree. Else, I'm not sure I want to short dollar as the US economy remains most robust of all developed economies.
To this I add, governmental intervention can come at any moment, elelphants tend to trample all smaller animals once they decide to retreat from the water hole.
"On the other side, I've been selling into this rally to lower my carried risk. Not shorting yet but I can see that light in the far end of the tunnel."
T3d - Yeah that's always a possibility. But 1986 had a price to sales of 0.75, GDP growth of 5%+, and a div yield of 3.7%. Today? How about 1.4 p/s, 1.5% GDP growth, and 2.1% div yield. I still think we're in for big swings for the next several years. It will really f*ck with people.
sorry meant to quote you t3d: "In the back of my mind cannot get out the idea of 1987 when the mkt ran from Jan to Oct without letting you in. I know its a low probability, but it would screw with the most people"
TOF with respect to, "How about 1.4 p/s, 1.5% GDP growth, and 2.1% div yield" we may not pass that way again for a while. In my mind the driver of such an event would be the liquidity created by the central banks of the world.
The markets are wacked out by gov't intervention. At some point, the cash sitting on the sidelines and in banks coffers has to be released into the mkt.
CC, trading what you see is the purest form of trading, but many people out there make good money fading mkt's which is what TOF is trying to do here, but if you noticed from his comments yesterday he stated that waiting for a confirmation of a bottom and than go with th break with vol gives him some of his best results.
Yeah, I understand and I don't want to F with his confidence because he does take (from my POV) the chancier trade than I do, which is harder to do. My confirmation is later than TOF's because I don't use volume or derivative indicators.
"I'm trading what I see, not history. So I chuck out #1 & 2. I only trade charts (technicals and prices) so I don't have any concept of p/e. Besides. P/E is as made up as beating by a penny. "
isn't this the inverse sentiment of what bears had on June 4 of last year? i remember bringing up the idea of going all in long and getting so brushback.
I don't remember June 4th of last year! Usually I resist the idea of making predictions. I'm just going on technicals and perceived risk. I guess I could be guilty of a prediction in my earlier post (light in the tunnel) but I'm feeling that familiar frothy "I can do no wrong" feeling and I want to avoid getting slaughtered with the pigs.
Who was it that said the other day, 'it's easy to make money in the markets, it's harder to keep it'? That usually is my problem so I can appreciate the sentiment.
So I'm not bailing on all my longs but I'm lightening the load as they run up. I'll add if we have an orderly pullback. If it get's disorderly I'll stop out and look to get short.
Disclosure: I did sell all of my YRCW today when the gift horse visited.
Yeah CC, found myself spending way too long looking at my profits after the market closed a couple of days ago and started wondering the same thing. It seems like every sale lately has been bad and every buy good - usually a sign things are getting close to the end, but if I was betting, I'd still say we got at least a few more weeks before an intermediate level pullback. Still got all the 401K, RRSP (Canada) and year end bonuses going into the markets.
Is this a reverse "I told you so"? Hey, I can tell the future from the past too. Heck, I can read that every Sunday at CC.
It may well be the inverse sentiment, but you were going long at a panic bottom and now it's not a bottom. Now risk is elevated. Maybe not a top but who knows?
Once again, like in June, I hope you are right. My current longs will do well. In June my shorts were killing and I stopped out with good profits.
Good article from Santoli on how playing sentiment may be becoming less effective as more people do it.
Market has made a hard turn south now, so tempting to call the top, but I don't know. Don't recall the market doing this in a while, so suspect we'll see a bunch of anxious shorts jump on only to get trashed 1 last time. Maybe best to wait for the retest and fail as TOF has suggested.
VXX is like UGAZ...everyone looks at the massive moves and is tempted but no one has the balls to hold it for the big moves. i was looking at that last night and marveling at the moves it made in May 2010 and August 2011. Just insane man.
by the way, i'm just busting your ballz on the prior posts. my real point is what the hell do we all know? nothing really. we just use our trusty little indicators, whether its technicals, fundamentals or a bit of both and trade/invest based on them. that's the best we can do.
oh wait...i mean the TVIX. that is just one insane ride that very few people can hold on for long. if we dump to 1,350 over the coming 2 months (i think there's a 50/50 chance we do that or go to 1,440ish then higher) then holders of TVIX will have made their decade.
Just about every highly prospective junior explorer and miner on the planet are undervalued now and most have way more cash on hand than they did in 2008 when the CREDIT CRASH hit! Most have way more reserves and production than 2008 as well! Good time to buy-bad time to be bought!
"more cash on hand than they did in 2008 when the CREDIT CRASH hit!"
Cash is cool I guess, PM miners hoarding cash? Interesting phenomenon. Also may soon be in a position to begin paying dividends or perhaps corporate executive salary increases will become the chosen path? They could even follow PAL's example by throwing the cash away on worthless clapped-out mines.
Wow, the sequence of events never amazes me: first the miners start underperforming the metals, and then inevitably the metals (and the market) often crashes. How do the miners know in advance that the market is going to crash??? They are a derivative product and are supposed to mimic the moves in the metals...
In any case, I am glad that I exited SIL yesterday for good. I am even more glad that I bought TVIX after hours yesterday at $4.88. :) The fact that 1500 on S&P was rejected right away suggests that the market momentum is very weak now...
And actually, I am kind of glad that AUMN issued a production delay, because it was a clear signal for me to sell a part of my position (at $4.40), which I would not have otherwise sold. Now I have an option to buy it much cheaper. But I think AUMN will get even cheaper as silver keeps pulling back.
As I said -- the bargain in AUMN will start under $3.50. The announced delay is not a "real" delay. The key activity they have going is digging the San Mateo ramp, and the increase in throughput they planned to achieve before the ramp is completed is by mining some other less efficient areas. Once the ramp is completed, they'll be able to quickly ramp up the production from their most efficient and highest-grade area. So in essence, there was NO delay in their key plan.
Major Drilling Group (MDI), the second largest mining drilling company in the world warned today. This is in addition to their announcement back on November 27th when the CEO said the "junior market is very dead" and that senior mining companies were still OK:
Major Drilling Group International Inc. (TSX: MDI) is updating its fourth quarter (February 1 to April 30) activity forecast from its second quarter press release dated November 26, 2012. At that time, the Company expected fourth quarter 2013 activity levels to be consistent with second quarter 2013 activity levels.
Subsequent to the holiday season, there have been increased delays in the decision making process on the part of many of the Company's senior customers in regards to their 2013 exploration drilling programs. The impact of these delays on the Company's third quarter was expected and has not changed management's views on third quarter results. However, given these increased delays, as well as general pricing pressures, fourth quarter revenue will be more significantly impacted than had been anticipated at the time of the November 26, 2012 press release.
Beyond the fourth quarter, and due to the ongoing volatility in the sector, it is too early to make an assessment. In the meantime, the Company continues to have a variable cost structure whereby most of its direct costs, including field staff, go up or down with contract revenue and a large part of the Company's other expenses relates to variable incentive compensation based on the Company's profitability.
Longer term, fundamentals remain positive, with continuing strong gold and copper prices, and an ongoing need for resource companies to replace depleting resources. The Company remains in an excellent financial position, being debt-free, net of cash.
Sounds double bullish, especially considering gold is poised to exceed historical highs by thousands, and the tons of horded cash waiting for deployment, just sitting in PM miners coffers.
I'm unconvinced any news coming from the industry can be relied upon to be realistic or accurate.
GGN - Rolling over right at the trend line, and PAL seems to be following. Huge volume in PAL lately, wonder what it means? Perhaps this is a case where volume precedes price?
Adding AAPL @ 452.55. That's it for my position, which I plan to ride for a few days. AAPL, imho, is a different animal than the average stock. It's so widely held, and been so widely touted, that a straight-down move is highly unlikely.
Oil keeps quietly moving to the upside and is up $10 in the last month or so. But the stocks really haven't reflected this, so I'd say there is a good chance here. In fact, if I didn't already own a lot of energy stocks, I'd probably look to pick one up here.
So we had a Bactrian S&P? And tomorrow we may get a real humping?
I don't know, we finished off the low (at a new closing high) and the VXX closed pretty much where it started.
The question during today's chart show was could the market move up with the dead Canary in the coal mine (AAPL). AAPL may be a source of funds for those who bought below today's low. I think SNE is one of the beneficiaries. Like life, so many questions and so few answers.
So I cancelled my after hours buy limit order on TVIX. In the past, whenever I would buy a second lot of shares right near the first one, I would ALWAYS feel sorry because within the next few days the price would always drop below the level of both purchases. Since TVIX is such a volatile beast, I would rather wait to add it at $4.50. So I have instead placed a GTC buy limit order for 500 shares of TVIX at $4.50.
Also, I just placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares of AUMN at $3.60 (so as to start replacing the 100 contracts of $2.50 calls I sold when AUMN was at $4.40). For every POS there is a bargain price, and at $3.60 we will be pretty close to the bargain price for AUMN. :)
i took my own advice and took the loss on my TZA with the hopes of entering when i see a clear divergence in momentum. otherwise we could be in a meltup period no different than the fall/winter of 2010/11, the march/april period of 2010, 2006, etc...
i'm still long tza, uup, and vxx, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
sold some feb 68 strike calls against my long term tbt position, i'll pick up more tbt if it drops closer to 60.
i'm seem to be struggling with vxx the most. For some reason i'm convinced this will trade much higher over the next two weeks which is total bs. I certainly don't consider it a long term hold like TBT or FCX. I see no sign on the chart of capitulation. I'm thinking I'm just going to have to look in the mirror, tell myself that I'm ok and just sell it no matter what. If I feel the urge to trade it in the future I can buy a call spread which would cap my losses.
FCX, i've decided to keep this one as a long term investment because I do want the copper exposure. Next pop to the upper 30's and I'll sell covered calls.
I don't look at this one much, although I should. Make sure you squawk if it does drop, okay? GGB looks weak to me, I guess the big boys are trying to make it look as though the H&S is gonna play out. That could change in a heartbeat when they throw THE SWITCH, or maybe there's really something going wrong.
AAPL, I'll be keeping a $385 ish bid out for this one just in case of a flash crash. I may start selling A PUT to buy it if it trades down to the low $400's
Veolia (VE) up nicely in Paris this morning - Bloomberg reporting they are doing what I think they should to get the stock up:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/veolia-targets-high-growth-china-mideast-to-boost-profit.html?cmpid=yhoo
Just as a note, if you buy any of these overseas stocks, you should include the native listing (VIE.PA) in the stocks you follow as Yahoo Finance at least only links many of the news stories to the native stock and not the US-listed ADR.
VE - Nice, I overlooked that tweezer bottom on the pullback, although the phenomenon is already played out.
DeleteFalling gold may support the bearish thesis?
When I said a couple of weeks ago that AAPL would be a drag on the market for a long time, I didn't think it would be so dramatic and so fast. But, other than playing for an oversold bounce here (which is not my style), I'd still avoid AAPL, probably for a very long time, like years.
ReplyDeleteNotice I am being like a market strategist and conveniently not mentioning when I bought AAPL puts last year at $450 on the way up and got smoked.
DeleteI'm not interested in AAPL until after it goes through the oversold cycle bottom. Slowest rate of growth in a decade......
DeleteThe ride down in aapl won't be easy if you're short, but it will go to $300.
DeleteThey have more PR tools and tricks than the fed, so if you are short, wear your seat belt and helmet.
Noble Corp - "Operational miss"
ReplyDeleteGMO - Will this one remain in the channel? Earnings ~Feb 6th
ReplyDeleteNorth Korea rattling the saber.
ReplyDeleteNote how the market is ----ing with everyone. Broad indexes (ex-AAPL) up. Gold down. Volatility down.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't like the positions you're holding, close them and move on to something else. Recall one of the most widely used quotes in this blog> 'I don't want to be a product of my environment. I want my environment to be a product of me.'
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGot Random Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteWell, the Ps didn't set the world on fire but they did manage to close at multi-year highs. As a trend follower, you can't argue with that. If B is higher than A and C is higher than B, then if a market is going from A to C, it has to make new highs by passing through B. It's not always that simple but you get the idea. New highs is a good thing and should not be ignored.
So, I should be happy, right? Well, I'm happy (but not "Happy, happy, happy" like Phil Robertson). I'm glad the market is making new highs. I remain concerned about the overbought nature of the market. With that said, I'd like to see it accelerate higher (vs. drifting) to become even more overbought and then have an orderly correction.
Like Mick once said, "You can't always get what you want." And it markets, you take what you get and you don't throw a fit. So overall, so far so good.
Internally the market was a little soft but not enough to worry about. Most sectors remain at or near new highs. Some, like Retail, which had been lagging, are now joining in the party.
So what do we do? Since the market only had a slight change, not much has changed in the game plan. Continue to enjoy the ride on your existing longs. As far as new positions, I hate buying into an overbought market. The good news is that since I'm a pullback trader, I'm not seeing many setups at this juncture and likely won't until the market corrects a bit. I still like the areas that can trade contra to the overall market, especially while it remains overbought. Selected commodities, speculative technology issues like the Solars, and selected IPOs are examples here. I haven't completely forgotten about the short side just yet. Here, I like the big cap issues that have lost steam as of late. As I preach, these previous high fliers could be a source of funds if the market continues to rally and if the market sells off, the bigger they are, the harder they will fall. Said alternatively, I think these issues can trade contra to the overall market too.
No matter what you do, continue to take things one day at a time and practice proper money and position management-honor your stops on existing positions and wait for entries on new ones. You'd be surprised how far those two things will go towards keeping you in the game for a long time.
Futures are weak pre-market.
If you're not saving lives, negotiating world peace treaties, or doing other great and wonderful things around 11:00 this morning, then come to the show.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Ps = Puppy slobber?
DeleteMLNX - Drops another 13% Of course as usually it does, the next day after experiencing a strong day.
ReplyDeleteWhat a great pick, LOL!
How do these analysts simply go from a PT of 90 to 50 and just maintain a buy rating? Shouldn't they be forced to sit in the penalty box for a few weeks?
DeleteDepends on who's paying the analyst(s) for their opinion.
DeleteIt's pretty obvious the company hired analysts to pump up the stock, gave copious amounts of shareholder wealth to the employees, then the employees rang the cash register.
DeleteClassic P&D
Guess so.
DeleteYou guess? Look at the price action and consider the story, I don't have to guess.
DeleteThe ZOO is rocking this morning.
ReplyDeleteAAPL could now easily become a tail wind.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, everyone seems to think it's going to drag the market down.
DeletePPMIQ - A $0.02 lottery ticket?
ReplyDeleteMax pain, across the board.
ReplyDeleteSPX 1500.
ReplyDelete1505 is target of focus now.
DeleteNo words of wisdom emanating from the sister blog.
ReplyDeleteThat's funny!
DeleteGo gold, go, rah, rah, rah!
DeleteMLNX - Closed the gap down, a major 1st for this stock.
ReplyDeleteI know I should short here, but I just can't get into it.
ReplyDeleteWait. I was all into shorting last night. Not this morning. Things change. Let's see how things play out today.
DeleteMLNX - Buyers at today's low are doing well with their trade. If this one closes green, I may have to reconsider my P&D argument.
ReplyDeleteSold 1/2 of YRCW at 7.15
ReplyDeleteLong AAPL @ 462.55...
ReplyDeletePalladium is still around $724, it hasn't fallen much. Still priced higher than gold, I should be investigating historic platinum/palladium ratio.
ReplyDeleteVE is trading at a newer high!!!!!
Added to AAPL @ 459.71...
ReplyDeleteStill no words of wisdom.
ReplyDeletemark - shorting here is suicide. i can attest to that! the best thing to do is wait for diverging momentum readings. i should have taken my own advice as i had a really good feeling last night that they would juice the market higher and set the ultimate bull trap as people say man this market is so strong even apple can't bring it down. i believe that's what's happening but the prudent thing is to wait for confirmation in the momentum readings. that's the same thing i do on the bottoms and it probably works about 80 to 90% of the time. the only times it doesn't work is when there are blowoff tops and bottoms. this might be one of the times.
ReplyDeletei guess i can take solace in the fact that i'm not shorting stocks like NFLX. in the grand scheme of things TZA is down 2.3% today which is really not that big of a hit if I believe we're setting up for a 15% drop in the markets and up to 20% in the russell 2000. had i made a lateral move into SID which i was considering i would only be outperforming myself by 1%.
ReplyDeleteto me i still see a scenario where TZA gets to $16 in March. doesn't look bloody likely now but that's the beauty of markets...the unforeseen can and almost always does happen.
DeleteI question shorting the russell. It's the big caps that are priced for perfection and rolling over. The IWM has been out-performing the DJIA/S&P and certainly the Q's.
DeleteOn the other side, I've been selling into this rally to lower my carried risk. Not shorting yet but I can see that light in the far end of the tunnel.
Speaking of SID its sitting on the 50 ema.
DeleteIn the back of my mind cannot get out the idea of 1987 when the mkt ran from Jan to Oct without letting you in. I know its a low probability, but it would screw with the most people.
CC - three things on the russell:
Delete(1) IWM almost always outperforms on the downside
(2) there is almost always a January effect where the Russell outperforms the overall market
(3) The Russell 2000 has a p/e of over 18 whereas the overall market is around 15 times.
all of these factors went into my decision to short it.
What's a p/e? :>)
DeleteI'm trading what I see, not history. So I chuck out #1 & 2. I only trade charts (technicals and prices) so I don't have any concept of p/e. Besides. P/E is as made up as beating by a penny.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3johxPXW7xA
here's a good example of something showing diverging momentum readings: EUR/USD (or FXE etf). the peak reading on this was on 9/14/12. since then the RSI_EMA reading has seen lower highs on 12/3/12, 12/20, and 1/14. the price has trended higher over that time period. to me it looks like it's set to fall and today would be an ideal time to start buying puts in it or shorting it.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, short euro, correct? If so, I tend to agree. Else, I'm not sure I want to short dollar as the US economy remains most robust of all developed economies.
DeleteTo this I add, governmental intervention can come at any moment, elelphants tend to trample all smaller animals once they decide to retreat from the water hole.
DeleteMother Mary come to me, let it be, or trade the one you love (for another?).
ReplyDeleteAnd for Mark; love the one your with, don't let the Schwarzenegger bug bite.
DeleteYeah! And BTW honey, the bathrooms need remodeling....
Delete"On the other side, I've been selling into this rally to lower my carried risk. Not shorting yet but I can see that light in the far end of the tunnel."
ReplyDeleteT3d - Yeah that's always a possibility. But 1986 had a price to sales of 0.75, GDP growth of 5%+, and a div yield of 3.7%. Today? How about 1.4 p/s, 1.5% GDP growth, and 2.1% div yield. I still think we're in for big swings for the next several years. It will really f*ck with people.
sorry meant to quote you t3d: "In the back of my mind cannot get out the idea of 1987 when the mkt ran from Jan to Oct without letting you in. I know its a low probability, but it would screw with the most people"
DeleteThere are still a lot of low level basing charts to look at.
DeletePLEASE let it be like 1987. I'm doing well enough in January to take the chance.
TOF with respect to, "How about 1.4 p/s, 1.5% GDP growth, and 2.1% div yield" we may not pass that way again for a while. In my mind the driver of such an event would be the liquidity created by the central banks of the world.
DeleteThe markets are wacked out by gov't intervention. At some point, the cash sitting on the sidelines and in banks coffers has to be released into the mkt.
CC, trading what you see is the purest form of trading, but many people out there make good money fading mkt's which is what TOF is trying to do here, but if you noticed from his comments yesterday he stated that waiting for a confirmation of a bottom and than go with th break with vol gives him some of his best results.
Never easy always interesting.
Yeah, I understand and I don't want to F with his confidence because he does take (from my POV) the chancier trade than I do, which is harder to do. My confirmation is later than TOF's because I don't use volume or derivative indicators.
DeleteLMT - Yep, it's about time special interest groups such as military contractors are placed front and center of the cutback axe.
ReplyDeleteAlthough the special interest group agenda has proved impossibly difficult to shake, I'd rather own LOCK vs Lockheed, at this point.
"I'm trading what I see, not history. So I chuck out #1 & 2. I only trade charts (technicals and prices) so I don't have any concept of p/e. Besides. P/E is as made up as beating by a penny. "
ReplyDeleteisn't this the inverse sentiment of what bears had on June 4 of last year? i remember bringing up the idea of going all in long and getting so brushback.
http://tradingtopics.blogspot.com/2012/06/060312-monday-open-even-call.html
Deletecheck out the blogs sentiment on 6/4/12. look at it now!
I don't remember June 4th of last year! Usually I resist the idea of making predictions. I'm just going on technicals and perceived risk. I guess I could be guilty of a prediction in my earlier post (light in the tunnel) but I'm feeling that familiar frothy "I can do no wrong" feeling and I want to avoid getting slaughtered with the pigs.
DeleteWho was it that said the other day, 'it's easy to make money in the markets, it's harder to keep it'? That usually is my problem so I can appreciate the sentiment.
So I'm not bailing on all my longs but I'm lightening the load as they run up. I'll add if we have an orderly pullback. If it get's disorderly I'll stop out and look to get short.
Disclosure: I did sell all of my YRCW today when the gift horse visited.
Yeah CC, found myself spending way too long looking at my profits after the market closed a couple of days ago and started wondering the same thing. It seems like every sale lately has been bad and every buy good - usually a sign things are getting close to the end, but if I was betting, I'd still say we got at least a few more weeks before an intermediate level pullback. Still got all the 401K, RRSP (Canada) and year end bonuses going into the markets.
DeleteIs this a reverse "I told you so"? Hey, I can tell the future from the past too. Heck, I can read that every Sunday at CC.
DeleteIt may well be the inverse sentiment, but you were going long at a panic bottom and now it's not a bottom. Now risk is elevated. Maybe not a top but who knows?
Once again, like in June, I hope you are right. My current longs will do well. In June my shorts were killing and I stopped out with good profits.
Ha, ha, here's a comment I found on that link:
Delete"ChickenpookieJune 4, 2012 at 6:38 AM
MET - Must be time to take a position..."
SVM - $4.01 low, AUMN - $4.01 high
ReplyDeleteCoincidence?
Good article from Santoli on how playing sentiment may be becoming less effective as more people do it.
ReplyDeleteMarket has made a hard turn south now, so tempting to call the top, but I don't know. Don't recall the market doing this in a while, so suspect we'll see a bunch of anxious shorts jump on only to get trashed 1 last time. Maybe best to wait for the retest and fail as TOF has suggested.
All I can say is all those buy and holders of gold equities are receiving a "celestial expeience."
ReplyDeleteOT:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyatlLeXwLE
Being basically in cash makes me want to listen to music while looking at/for magic lines.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bl9bvuAV-Ao
Anyone holding the VXX? 3.6% today.
ReplyDeleteVXX is like UGAZ...everyone looks at the massive moves and is tempted but no one has the balls to hold it for the big moves. i was looking at that last night and marveling at the moves it made in May 2010 and August 2011. Just insane man.
Deleteby the way, i'm just busting your ballz on the prior posts. my real point is what the hell do we all know? nothing really. we just use our trusty little indicators, whether its technicals, fundamentals or a bit of both and trade/invest based on them. that's the best we can do.
No worries man. I listen to you more than you know. Jesse too.
Deleteoh wait...i mean the TVIX. that is just one insane ride that very few people can hold on for long. if we dump to 1,350 over the coming 2 months (i think there's a 50/50 chance we do that or go to 1,440ish then higher) then holders of TVIX will have made their decade.
DeleteVXX up 5.5% just today. You had to fade it at 22.50 or so to endure the ride. TVIX would be insane. You stand better odds at the track.
DeleteVia Kaimu
ReplyDeleteJust about every highly prospective junior explorer and miner on the planet are undervalued now and most have way more cash on hand than they did in 2008 when the CREDIT CRASH hit! Most have way more reserves and production than 2008 as well! Good time to buy-bad time to be bought!
LOL! More Kaimu....
Delete"Still what can a fearless investor do these days??? Nowhere and nothing is safe! Welcome to the World of DEBT-O-MANIA!!!"
Actually I feel safe Uncle Bernancke told me I'm in his will and he is starting me now on a lifetime supply of HGH human growth hormone, wow!
Delete"more cash on hand than they did in 2008 when the CREDIT CRASH hit!"
DeleteCash is cool I guess, PM miners hoarding cash? Interesting phenomenon. Also may soon be in a position to begin paying dividends or perhaps corporate executive salary increases will become the chosen path? They could even follow PAL's example by throwing the cash away on worthless clapped-out mines.
And where'd they get their magnificent stash of cash, shareholder dilution?
DeleteAnd SPX dies.....
ReplyDeleteWow, the sequence of events never amazes me: first the miners start underperforming the metals, and then inevitably the metals (and the market) often crashes. How do the miners know in advance that the market is going to crash??? They are a derivative product and are supposed to mimic the moves in the metals...
ReplyDeleteIn any case, I am glad that I exited SIL yesterday for good. I am even more glad that I bought TVIX after hours yesterday at $4.88. :) The fact that 1500 on S&P was rejected right away suggests that the market momentum is very weak now...
And actually, I am kind of glad that AUMN issued a production delay, because it was a clear signal for me to sell a part of my position (at $4.40), which I would not have otherwise sold. Now I have an option to buy it much cheaper. But I think AUMN will get even cheaper as silver keeps pulling back.
DeleteAs I said -- the bargain in AUMN will start under $3.50. The announced delay is not a "real" delay. The key activity they have going is digging the San Mateo ramp, and the increase in throughput they planned to achieve before the ramp is completed is by mining some other less efficient areas. Once the ramp is completed, they'll be able to quickly ramp up the production from their most efficient and highest-grade area. So in essence, there was NO delay in their key plan.
Delete"the bargain in AUMN will start under $3.50."
DeleteI intend on being there watching, hopefully the cycle isn't eternally lengthy.
Nice work on the TVIX, by the way!
DeleteMNLX wonder if this is the blow-off low for a trade, big vol
ReplyDeleteApril gap up obligation was addressed. Jury is still out, going forward.
DeleteCP, the gap expert, SID has a gap of 5.37-5.45 wonder if we get there or was today close enough.
DeleteWho wants to buy the top? The AAPL scare factor working it's mystical charm?
ReplyDeleteNEOG - This company manufactures a device which is designed to rapidly identify presence of pathogens in the food production industry.
ReplyDeleteMajor Drilling Group (MDI), the second largest mining drilling company in the world warned today. This is in addition to their announcement back on November 27th when the CEO said the "junior market is very dead" and that senior mining companies were still OK:
ReplyDeleteMajor Drilling Group International Inc. (TSX: MDI) is updating its fourth quarter (February 1 to April 30) activity forecast from its second quarter press release dated November 26, 2012. At that time, the Company expected fourth quarter 2013 activity levels to be consistent with second quarter 2013 activity levels.
Subsequent to the holiday season, there have been increased delays in the decision making process on the part of many of the Company's senior customers in regards to their 2013 exploration drilling programs. The impact of these delays on the Company's third quarter was expected and has not changed management's views on third quarter results. However, given these increased delays, as well as general pricing pressures, fourth quarter revenue will be more significantly impacted than had been anticipated at the time of the November 26, 2012 press release.
Beyond the fourth quarter, and due to the ongoing volatility in the sector, it is too early to make an assessment. In the meantime, the Company continues to have a variable cost structure whereby most of its direct costs, including field staff, go up or down with contract revenue and a large part of the Company's other expenses relates to variable incentive compensation based on the Company's profitability.
Longer term, fundamentals remain positive, with continuing strong gold and copper prices, and an ongoing need for resource companies to replace depleting resources. The Company remains in an excellent financial position, being debt-free, net of cash.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Deletesmack dowm -15% ytd gains and then some
DeleteSounds double bullish, especially considering gold is poised to exceed historical highs by thousands, and the tons of horded cash waiting for deployment, just sitting in PM miners coffers.
DeleteI'm unconvinced any news coming from the industry can be relied upon to be realistic or accurate.
GGN - Rolling over right at the trend line, and PAL seems to be following. Huge volume in PAL lately, wonder what it means? Perhaps this is a case where volume precedes price?
ReplyDeleteI capitulated on the TZA at $11.23 and moved a bit into NIHD at $7.28.
ReplyDeletehopped back in TZA...$11.26. I think i might just need a trader's break.
Deletesold for a two cent gain...now THAT is what i'm talking about.
DeleteAdding AAPL @ 452.55. That's it for my position, which I plan to ride for a few days. AAPL, imho, is a different animal than the average stock. It's so widely held, and been so widely touted, that a straight-down move is highly unlikely.
ReplyDeleteIf anything, being short APPL would scare the ---- out of me here.
DeleteIt's close enough to blood in the streets as a stock like AAPL will get.
DeleteFido customers AAPL
Deletebuys 42,828
sells 18390
Are the natives getting restless?
ReplyDeleteGDXJ- Whoa.
ReplyDeleteStill no words of wisdom.
DeleteLet it be?
DeleteNot even a whisper.
DeleteHit the 50SMA and failed, more like a shout(to GTFO!).
DeleteTalk about the market being wrong long enough to force insolvency, one could go broke just waiting for the complex to bottom.
DeleteSee the volume spike 4 days ago: Shout, shout, GTFO, these are the things I
can do without. Come on, I'm talking to you, come on.
added some more NIHD at $7.19
ReplyDeleteVXX literally collapsed. Amazing.
ReplyDeleteNo amazement here.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCtQwXVipqo
DeleteInteresting AAPL play 2nd.
ReplyDeleteEnergy plays have to really be a leader here if this market is going higher.
Oil keeps quietly moving to the upside and is up $10 in the last month or so. But the stocks really haven't reflected this, so I'd say there is a good chance here. In fact, if I didn't already own a lot of energy stocks, I'd probably look to pick one up here.
DeleteNBR is moving already, CHK inching up.
DeleteNFLX - Video streaming seems to be giving the redbox machine a run for it's money?
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Back to testing the 50SMA, I think it's gonna fail.
ReplyDeletePlaced a buy limit order for 500 more shares of TVIX at $4.75 after hours.
ReplyDeleteThe double hump shape of S&P today, with the second hump being lower than the first suggests that tomorrow we may get a real drop.
DeleteSo we had a Bactrian S&P? And tomorrow we may get a real humping?
DeleteI don't know, we finished off the low (at a new closing high) and the VXX closed pretty much where it started.
The question during today's chart show was could the market move up with the dead Canary in the coal mine (AAPL). AAPL may be a source of funds for those who bought below today's low. I think SNE is one of the beneficiaries. Like life, so many questions and so few answers.
But then, looking at the 1H chart of S&P futures, I see a clear and unbroken sequence of higher lows:
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
So I cancelled my after hours buy limit order on TVIX. In the past, whenever I would buy a second lot of shares right near the first one, I would ALWAYS feel sorry because within the next few days the price would always drop below the level of both purchases. Since TVIX is such a volatile beast, I would rather wait to add it at $4.50. So I have instead placed a GTC buy limit order for 500 shares of TVIX at $4.50.
Also, I just placed a buy limit order for 1000 shares of AUMN at $3.60 (so as to start replacing the 100 contracts of $2.50 calls I sold when AUMN was at $4.40). For every POS there is a bargain price, and at $3.60 we will be pretty close to the bargain price for AUMN. :)
ReplyDeleteNVR - Unstoppable.
ReplyDeleteSID - It appears this one still has an obligation to back-fill the December 11 gap up from $5.39
ReplyDeletei took my own advice and took the loss on my TZA with the hopes of entering when i see a clear divergence in momentum. otherwise we could be in a meltup period no different than the fall/winter of 2010/11, the march/april period of 2010, 2006, etc...
ReplyDeleteBA - Refusing to fall....
ReplyDeleteevening gents,
ReplyDeletei'm still long tza, uup, and vxx, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
sold some feb 68 strike calls against my long term tbt position, i'll pick up more tbt if it drops closer to 60.
i'm seem to be struggling with vxx the most. For some reason i'm convinced this will trade much higher over the next two weeks which is total bs. I certainly don't consider it a long term hold like TBT or FCX. I see no sign on the chart of capitulation. I'm thinking I'm just going to have to look in the mirror, tell myself that I'm ok and just sell it no matter what. If I feel the urge to trade it in the future I can buy a call spread which would cap my losses.
the odds of there being a pullback tomorrow are quite high now that i'm out of TZA.
DeleteAGO - I bet this one retests $15.50 soon, b/c it can.
ReplyDeleteTBT - Looks like bull flag, will it fail?
TBT Actually looks pretty good here to me.
Deleteyeah, if we drop to the low 60's on a spooky market day I may just sell a couple of cash secured puts. Probably best to just buy it outright though.
DeleteFCX, i've decided to keep this one as a long term investment because I do want the copper exposure. Next pop to the upper 30's and I'll sell covered calls.
ReplyDeleteI don't look at this one much, although I should. Make sure you squawk if it does drop, okay? GGB looks weak to me, I guess the big boys are trying to make it look as though the H&S is gonna play out. That could change in a heartbeat when they throw THE SWITCH, or maybe there's really something going wrong.
DeleteAAPL, I'll be keeping a $385 ish bid out for this one just in case of a flash crash. I may start selling A PUT to buy it if it trades down to the low $400's
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete