After browsing the various commentators and blogs I follow, my take this evening is bullish. Not a raging bull. But any investors who bought higher and sell now are likely to regret it.
You all know my 'takes' have short expirations.
re COWN, there is good value there in that they trade at a substantial discount to BV and most of their book is invested in their funds, so it is real value. In a good market, you get good upside leverage in that their BV will grow with their funds, their earnings should grow and their valuation should improve.
I sold it last year, mainly because (a) it got to be a relatively small position for me as it didn't go up with everything else (b) I got tired of waiting for them to actually turn a profit, even as markets improved and (c) I became concerned about the long term viability of these full service money managers with ETF's growing so much and so much competition reducing alpha opportunities (maybe we need more industry consolidation).
I haven't looked at it since, so not sure how things have progressed, but I do see they now have a fwd p/e of 7, so people must be expecting profits.
TD reducing target on AUMN to $0.35 (value of cash on balance sheet) due to mine suspension and don't see a restart for quite a while unless metals prices improve.
David, will send to you.
Seems extreme as there is obviously value in the mine, but that's their call.
At this juncture in the global markets, you really need to have conviction to be playing. You're either (a) 'certain' the bull is intact, and buy/hold, or (b) bearish, and sell/short, or (c) uncertain, and in cash.
That didn't really come across correctly. My point is if you're uncertain about market direction, you should clear the table and remain in cash. Only diehard bulls and bears should have skin in the game when a 'flash flood' either way could send you reeling.
Got Random Thoughts? I try to avoid all news but I usually get some via osmosis. My fratello italiano Emilio Tomasini (http://www.emiliotomasini.it/) was visiting last week. He asked me what does "taper" mean? I asked him to use it in a sentence and he said "The Fed will taper off..."
So, the fed is going to take away the punch bowl. The fear of this is that this is the only thing that has been propping up the market. And, it might just be. However, you can't act on the news in and of itself. And, besides, if the market overreacts, the Fed will likely say, "just kidding"-but I digress. It's the reaction to the news and not the news in and of itself.
And, so far, the reaction has been oxymoronic: pretty ugly. The Ps and the Quack are now well below their 50-day moving average. There's nothing magical about that average but it is well watched and worth watching. Also, in general, it will help to keep you on the right side of the market.
Forget about the Fed. Plot your charts and trade accordingly.
All the recent ugliness mentioned has come to fruition. Foreign shares, especially emerging markets imploding. Ditto for bonds and anything interest rate sensitive. On a net net basis, stock prices are unchanged for weeks. And, most sectors have rolled over or, at the least, have lost momentum. See the newsletter archives. What's concerning is that there seems to be no place to run, no place to hide. Even gold, which often gets a flight to safety reaction, has been imploding. This suggests a liquidation type of market where cash needs to be raised-and fast.
If you have been reading this newsletter, you should have some shorts on, based on the aforementioned weakness. I'm not saying this to be smug but as a lesson on paying attention to market action. I did not know that we would definitely sell off. I did not know that the Fed would do some jawboning. I DID see some deterioration and think they I better pull in my horns a bit and think about the short side. I actually hoped that I was wrong and that the market would turn right back up. You can't trade on hope though. You have to trade what you see. You also don't have to be 100% correct on direction. If things weaken (as they did) you honor your stops on existing longs, avoid new ones, and look to fire off a short or two.
So what do we do? It's too late in the current short-term cycle to establish new shorts. Manage existing shorts. Take partial profits as offered and trail your stops lower. Honor your stops on existing longs. Yet again, letting the ebb and flow of money management and portfolio management can help to keep you on the right side of the market/in the right issues---especially in questionable conditions.
Continued panicky action grips the mortgage REIT sector (REM -3.5%) at the open as the global stock selloff as yet offers no relief on interest rates. Adding to the fear is an opening print of -25% on the Market Vectors Mortgage REIT ETF (MORT -3.7%).
Looks like I get to take the summer off along with everyone else, not planning on sitting here watching the market sell all summer long.
Will I receive a page when it's time to go long even if I don't have a pager anymore? Whatever happened to pagers, are there still such devices, kinda doubt it...
I'm still confident that the bull market in stock is continuing. I think we are just see a asset reallocation phase due to the move up in rates. I think that there is way too much money in bonds / high yielders and these need to be sold, so that will pressure the overall market.
But the reality is, rates are going up because the economy is improving. And once this reallocation is complete, stocks will resume their uptrend.
CP- Could not track down a time stamp on FMD purchase with the 1.04 purchase. That account is a 401K account with Hewitt. Not the most trader friendly one I have.
Thinking of off loading my shit today and sitting back. Contemplating. Mainly Cash but holding 20% OAKBX, FMD, CECO, DRAM and REDF still.
I was up in Duluth,MN on Friday getting ready to run Grandmas marathon so I did not actively trade that day. I'm guessing my purchase went through with edgx when that 124K blockof FMD went through.
Be nice if we could recruit a just a few more active traders here. Sister site is pretty worthless now. Haven't looked at it in a long time. The 4 pillars sent me an email this weekend, but didnt get a chance to review it yet in detail, but looks like they were calling for a correction to extend on and how to pick a bottom using the 4 pillars.
Sorry not so active, I'm just trying to accumulate at "decent" levels in preparation for "set and forget" till the fear fades and prices return to reasonable valuations.
hey 2nd - well we certainly got the direction call wrong in the short term. doesn't mean we're wrong in the longer term but it's obviously weak out there. I'd personally like to see a really high volume spike on SPY that coincides with a big spike in the VIX. I'd also like to see /ZB put a floor in. I think we're closing in on that. It looks like the market wants to go down a big round number of 10%. that brings us to 1518, which looks like it would line up with the 200 DMA. the 1540ish level looks to me more likely though.
I keep using the 1966 to 1982 time period as a parallel just because the market does seem to have traded similarly. the more i look at it the more it sure seems like we're around that period in 1980/81 when the market ripped 40% into late Nov 1980. it immediately gave back all of the last spurt of gains quickly (about 10% or so), then bounced up and down between those lows and highs for 8 months or so before finally giving way to lows in 1982 that sparked a massive multi year bull market.
for me personally, its almost comical how after i cash in on a big winner (YRCW) i am almost always apt to give back about 10 to 20% or so. i felt confident after buying NOK and CECO immediately after that and tacking on more gains, but in hindsight i think i got caught up in the bull a little too much. i still like the market a lot longer term but it seems like we're going to be at least trading sideways for a long time similarly to 1981. i'm holding on to my FMD and NOK as i see those as being longer term winners but for now am not committing anything more to the market until i see the signs i mentioned above.
sidenote: stephen stewart freaking nailed it with his DUST call. what a move.
Of the stocks i follow, the strongest are GRPN and NOK.
if we do fall down to the 200 DMA and bottom i think it's logical that we would see a massive short covering rally which will be used by a lot of people as a chance to exit positions. i think down there the sentiment would be horrible. in looking at the 1980/81 market i can actually visualize people's emotions as it bounced up and down.
I will say I'm very tempted to buy some more FMD. I pulled my bid on $1.09 but I keep looking at their improving cash flows relative to cash balance and there is no risk of them having a cash crunch for several years. If we do get a market bottom and then a continued uptrend this is one stock that could really take off.
last thing, everything i mentioned this weekend on why i'm bullish longer term still clearly stands. we still have a cheap market, low interest rates, lots of slack in the labor market, a skeptical (i.e., the fed is behind the entire move up) / pessimistic public, lack of retail participation, etc. with the market selling off on what i think are short term issues, it only makes me more bullish longer term. i know the bears are having a field day on this 8% correction but lets keep those things in mind for the longer term.
Funny thing is with FMD if I would have just stock with original breakout purchase I'd be down almost 10%. Still have that, but the dozen plus trades have worked out great.
$1277, $10 remaining for $1266 gold target. $1192 is next downside target from there should it keep going, which I think it will since fiat is the old monetary system which has been replaced...
Boy that TIP chart sure looks like a panic bottom. The monthly chart is actually as oversold as it was in October 2008. That has to tell you something no?
verniman @verniman 20m $ES_F: Key level 1565 LVN-ONL Make or Break. Buyers need to go through that level to avoid a major selloff to 1548 http://twitpic.com/cyza55 verniman @verniman 18m @Ch2Christo The profile says we probably go lower, (doesn't have to be today), but note the poor low (High Volume) http://twitpic.com/cyzagc
Asia Gaming and Lodging Weekly: June GGR is accelerating 34 minutes ago
Buy on dips. June GGR is accelerating and there is no sign of impact on revenue so far despite the surge of SHIBOR recently. June GGR is on track to grow 18% to 22% YoY, implying MOP27.6-28.4bn (vs. our June GGR expectation of MOP27.0bn, +15.7% YoY). Macau total visitation in May: 2.34mn, +9.1% YoY. Visitors from China: 1.43mn, +17.3% YoY, account for 64% of total visitors.
What do I see going forward? I don’t like to ‘predict’ what will happen, but I believe it will take time to repair the damage to global stock indexes. If we remember that stock markets are comprised of homo sapiens setting prices in the market, then the occasional short squeeze notwithstanding, it’s unlikely the bull returns anytime soon.
Today’s hit takes the port back to December 2012 levels, and has me in capital preservation mode. I don’t ‘mind’ giving up YTD performance, but I intend to protect 2012 gains! (The decline over the past week should have you thinking hard about your own exit strategies. It’s easy to dismiss a -5-6% pullback, but should prices continue to gap down the losses begin to take an emotional toll.)
I have some longs holding up and I have some shorts. I'm just going to let position size, money management and stops take care of whatever happens. I had a bit of a squeeze today on my CELG position which I covered and re-entered on a five minute SPY chart. So I took some profits and then shorted it again when the SPY started selling again. URG did well today and I traded it enough to not worry if I get stopped out. I'm still holding a profitable TBT position but it isn't life or death sized. I have no idea what will happen, so I'm positioned to profit either way. It's looking like it could get more serious but all it takes is a couple of good days to get back to new highs. So far we are flat for a few months now, so I'm just trying to hang onto what I've done so far.
i've mentioned this several times but if the Chinese economy and energy is going down the shitter, then why the eff is the Baltic Dry Index breaking out?
Oil certainly wasn't going down the shitter today, what will you be saying if it rises to $140's? I'd be buying the shit out of it if it were in the mid $80's
Something's buoying(A word directly from technical shipping terminology handbook!) the BDI....
I would say the market is pulling back hard in certain area, but not in others.
Obviously Precious Metals are in a hard pullback, and I would avoid completely. At this point, people will be looking to sell any bounce and I would expect significant tax-loss selling in the fall, so would not even consider until late in the year when you may get some great buys.
Bonds, interest rate sensitive stocks and safety stocks like utilities and consumer staples are also having a tough time. Because the S&P 500 is full of these, the broad market indexes are also falling.
BUT, outside of these areas, the damage has been far less. I've tried to avoid those areas and my personal stocks are down less than 2% this month.
For your trading, I think you have done very well making good money, especially considering your seem to be mainly in the metals and they have been in an overall downtrend for the last 2 years. I guess the one thought would be to move to parts of the market which are in uptrends - easier to win with a tailwind at your back instead of fighting the incoming storms.
Well, that makes me feel a little better. So would it, if Asia closes green.
ReplyDeleteI was beginning to believe we're headed for another round of elephant deleverage.
MORL - Ha, so if the NAV falls below $5, the ETN could be called. Current div is 33% so it would take just 3 years to double, ay-chihuhua!
ReplyDeleteThat's some story with MORL, huh?
TOF,
ReplyDeletere COWN, there is good value there in that they trade at a substantial discount to BV and most of their book is invested in their funds, so it is real value. In a good market, you get good upside leverage in that their BV will grow with their funds, their earnings should grow and their valuation should improve.
I sold it last year, mainly because (a) it got to be a relatively small position for me as it didn't go up with everything else (b) I got tired of waiting for them to actually turn a profit, even as markets improved and (c) I became concerned about the long term viability of these full service money managers with ETF's growing so much and so much competition reducing alpha opportunities (maybe we need more industry consolidation).
I haven't looked at it since, so not sure how things have progressed, but I do see they now have a fwd p/e of 7, so people must be expecting profits.
TD reducing target on AUMN to $0.35 (value of cash on balance sheet) due to mine suspension and don't see a restart for quite a while unless metals prices improve.
ReplyDeleteDavid, will send to you.
Seems extreme as there is obviously value in the mine, but that's their call.
Obviously, I was wrong!
ReplyDeleteAt this juncture in the global markets, you really need to have conviction to be playing. You're either (a) 'certain' the bull is intact, and buy/hold, or (b) bearish, and sell/short, or (c) uncertain, and in cash.
DeleteThat didn't really come across correctly. My point is if you're uncertain about market direction, you should clear the table and remain in cash. Only diehard bulls and bears should have skin in the game when a 'flash flood' either way could send you reeling.
DeleteWhat's Landry looking for this morning?
ReplyDeleteGot Random Thoughts?
DeleteI try to avoid all news but I usually get some via osmosis. My fratello italiano Emilio Tomasini (http://www.emiliotomasini.it/) was visiting last week. He asked me what does "taper" mean? I asked him to use it in a sentence and he said "The Fed will taper off..."
So, the fed is going to take away the punch bowl. The fear of this is that this is the only thing that has been propping up the market. And, it might just be. However, you can't act on the news in and of itself. And, besides, if the market overreacts, the Fed will likely say, "just kidding"-but I digress. It's the reaction to the news and not the news in and of itself.
And, so far, the reaction has been oxymoronic: pretty ugly. The Ps and the Quack are now well below their 50-day moving average. There's nothing magical about that average but it is well watched and worth watching. Also, in general, it will help to keep you on the right side of the market.
Forget about the Fed. Plot your charts and trade accordingly.
All the recent ugliness mentioned has come to fruition. Foreign shares, especially emerging markets imploding. Ditto for bonds and anything interest rate sensitive. On a net net basis, stock prices are unchanged for weeks. And, most sectors have rolled over or, at the least, have lost momentum. See the newsletter archives. What's concerning is that there seems to be no place to run, no place to hide. Even gold, which often gets a flight to safety reaction, has been imploding. This suggests a liquidation type of market where cash needs to be raised-and fast.
If you have been reading this newsletter, you should have some shorts on, based on the aforementioned weakness. I'm not saying this to be smug but as a lesson on paying attention to market action. I did not know that we would definitely sell off. I did not know that the Fed would do some jawboning. I DID see some deterioration and think they I better pull in my horns a bit and think about the short side. I actually hoped that I was wrong and that the market would turn right back up. You can't trade on hope though. You have to trade what you see. You also don't have to be 100% correct on direction. If things weaken (as they did) you honor your stops on existing longs, avoid new ones, and look to fire off a short or two.
So what do we do? It's too late in the current short-term cycle to establish new shorts. Manage existing shorts. Take partial profits as offered and trail your stops lower. Honor your stops on existing longs. Yet again, letting the ebb and flow of money management and portfolio management can help to keep you on the right side of the market/in the right issues---especially in questionable conditions.
Futures are weak pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!
NOTICE: The above is NOT an opinion or prediction of market direction, it is trading what is actually happening.
DeleteFD: Short CELG from 115.
Could we not make the case that the FED is actually propping up rates by paying interest on reserves?
DeleteThanks, Craig.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the 'Community' saying now?
As for me, I have no choice but to close RYWVX at the 1030 am est trading window. Ouch...
ReplyDeleteWhat is the reported GDP of China these days?
ReplyDeleteRe trouble with the ETF's (from seekingalpha):
ReplyDeleteContinued panicky action grips the mortgage REIT sector (REM -3.5%) at the open as the global stock selloff as yet offers no relief on interest rates. Adding to the fear is an opening print of -25% on the Market Vectors Mortgage REIT ETF (MORT -3.7%).
Trouble in paradise!
DeleteJB just emailed me that!
DeleteLooks like I get to take the summer off along with everyone else, not planning on sitting here watching the market sell all summer long.
ReplyDeleteWill I receive a page when it's time to go long even if I don't have a pager anymore? Whatever happened to pagers, are there still such devices, kinda doubt it...
2nd,
ReplyDeleteI'm still confident that the bull market in stock is continuing. I think we are just see a asset reallocation phase due to the move up in rates. I think that there is way too much money in bonds / high yielders and these need to be sold, so that will pressure the overall market.
But the reality is, rates are going up because the economy is improving. And once this reallocation is complete, stocks will resume their uptrend.
I hope so.
DeleteCP-
ReplyDeleteCould not track down a time stamp on FMD purchase with the 1.04 purchase. That account is a 401K account with Hewitt. Not the most trader friendly one I have.
Thinking of off loading my shit today and sitting back. Contemplating. Mainly Cash but holding 20% OAKBX, FMD, CECO, DRAM and REDF still.
I was up in Duluth,MN on Friday getting ready to run Grandmas marathon so I did not actively trade that day. I'm guessing my purchase went through with edgx when that 124K blockof FMD went through.
DeleteREDF is most concerning.
DeleteOkay thanks, looks like that $1.04 trade occurred at about that time, best I can tell. Nice.
DeleteThe FMD PNF targetI'm looking at is currently $1.03, so maybe we are actually looking at an IH&S on weekly... or not.
That's what I thought. 4 comments, none of which qualify as a real 'comment.'
ReplyDeleteBe nice if we could recruit a just a few more active traders here. Sister site is pretty worthless now. Haven't looked at it in a long time. The 4 pillars sent me an email this weekend, but didnt get a chance to review it yet in detail, but looks like they were calling for a correction to extend on and how to pick a bottom using the 4 pillars.
ReplyDeleteSorry not so active, I'm just trying to accumulate at "decent" levels in preparation for "set and forget" till the fear fades and prices return to reasonable valuations.
DeleteActive posters are good too. :)
DeleteBelly fat? Switch to coconut oil.
ReplyDeletehey 2nd - well we certainly got the direction call wrong in the short term. doesn't mean we're wrong in the longer term but it's obviously weak out there. I'd personally like to see a really high volume spike on SPY that coincides with a big spike in the VIX. I'd also like to see /ZB put a floor in. I think we're closing in on that. It looks like the market wants to go down a big round number of 10%. that brings us to 1518, which looks like it would line up with the 200 DMA. the 1540ish level looks to me more likely though.
ReplyDeleteI keep using the 1966 to 1982 time period as a parallel just because the market does seem to have traded similarly. the more i look at it the more it sure seems like we're around that period in 1980/81 when the market ripped 40% into late Nov 1980. it immediately gave back all of the last spurt of gains quickly (about 10% or so), then bounced up and down between those lows and highs for 8 months or so before finally giving way to lows in 1982 that sparked a massive multi year bull market.
for me personally, its almost comical how after i cash in on a big winner (YRCW) i am almost always apt to give back about 10 to 20% or so. i felt confident after buying NOK and CECO immediately after that and tacking on more gains, but in hindsight i think i got caught up in the bull a little too much. i still like the market a lot longer term but it seems like we're going to be at least trading sideways for a long time similarly to 1981. i'm holding on to my FMD and NOK as i see those as being longer term winners but for now am not committing anything more to the market until i see the signs i mentioned above.
sidenote: stephen stewart freaking nailed it with his DUST call. what a move.
Of the stocks i follow, the strongest are GRPN and NOK.
if we do fall down to the 200 DMA and bottom i think it's logical that we would see a massive short covering rally which will be used by a lot of people as a chance to exit positions. i think down there the sentiment would be horrible. in looking at the 1980/81 market i can actually visualize people's emotions as it bounced up and down.
DeleteI will say I'm very tempted to buy some more FMD. I pulled my bid on $1.09 but I keep looking at their improving cash flows relative to cash balance and there is no risk of them having a cash crunch for several years. If we do get a market bottom and then a continued uptrend this is one stock that could really take off.
Deletelast thing, everything i mentioned this weekend on why i'm bullish longer term still clearly stands. we still have a cheap market, low interest rates, lots of slack in the labor market, a skeptical (i.e., the fed is behind the entire move up) / pessimistic public, lack of retail participation, etc. with the market selling off on what i think are short term issues, it only makes me more bullish longer term. i know the bears are having a field day on this 8% correction but lets keep those things in mind for the longer term.
Delete"I pulled my bid on $1.09"
DeleteChickensh*t! ;)
ha! i prefer chicken little, however, it might just reappear!
Deletesold some of the 1.04 at 1.10.
DeleteShit I think I bought some from you!
DeleteJust trading in some of the trading portion....thanks for the pickup. Still need about 1000 shares from you...buy some more
DeleteYou guys are funny, buying and selling to one another! ;)
DeleteI tend to think it is a buy here too, but I made a buck and off loading a little risk here in this market is a bad thing.
Deletenot a bad thing
DeleteI actually think it IS a bad thing!
DeleteBias of a different time frame. :)
DeleteFunny thing is with FMD if I would have just stock with original breakout purchase I'd be down almost 10%. Still have that, but the dozen plus trades have worked out great.
Delete$1277, $10 remaining for $1266 gold target. $1192 is next downside target from there should it keep going, which I think it will since fiat is the old monetary system which has been replaced...
ReplyDeleteTakes forever, huh?
PIE - Looking more delicious everyday....
ReplyDeletewow. another one showing a lot of panic. massive volume on a sharp move lower.
DeleteWhat a gift, come to Papa Smurf!
DeleteBoy that TIP chart sure looks like a panic bottom. The monthly chart is actually as oversold as it was in October 2008. That has to tell you something no?
ReplyDeleteThat looks like a great long term trade right now for sure. Maybe a stop around par
DeleteAUMN....ouch.
ReplyDeletepicked up a some for a rebound trade at 1.33 stop at the days low
DeleteI like that trade, good luck with it.
DeleteI'm wondering if $1.20 will hold if silver moves to the $16.15 target area... Tempting, hmm...
DeleteNOK and GRPN continue to hold in ok. NOK around $3.8 and GRPN is green.
ReplyDeleteES_F:
ReplyDeleteverniman @verniman 20m
$ES_F: Key level 1565 LVN-ONL Make or Break. Buyers need to go through that level to avoid a major selloff to 1548 http://twitpic.com/cyza55
verniman @verniman 18m
@Ch2Christo The profile says we probably go lower, (doesn't have to be today), but note the poor low (High Volume) http://twitpic.com/cyzagc
I know my broker is busy as hell when I can't get the site pages to load reliably.
ReplyDeleteCrime rings pocketing PELL grants....
ReplyDeleteHell of rebound in CECO
ReplyDeleteAn insulting rebound, IMO.
Delete7% of the bottom tick was pretty good, thought about buying it...another trade missed
Deletetake a look at MBI dude. that's a helluva rebound. percentage wise same with FMD.
DeleteFMD is going to be a BIG winner
DeleteComputers trying to provoke human panic, it has to be.
DeleteDamn, that weekly IH&S is working....
DeleteAsia Gaming and Lodging Weekly: June GGR is accelerating
ReplyDelete34 minutes ago
Buy on dips. June GGR is accelerating and there is no sign of impact on revenue so far despite the surge of SHIBOR recently. June GGR is on track to grow 18% to 22% YoY, implying MOP27.6-28.4bn (vs. our June GGR expectation of MOP27.0bn, +15.7% YoY). Macau total visitation in May: 2.34mn, +9.1% YoY. Visitors from China: 1.43mn, +17.3% YoY, account for 64% of total visitors.
wall street wants YOUR money!
DeleteMM and BCOV have held in well.
ReplyDeletesame with PCLN and OWW.
DeleteWhat do I see going forward? I don’t like to ‘predict’ what will happen, but I believe it will take time to repair the damage to global stock indexes. If we remember that stock markets are comprised of homo sapiens setting prices in the market, then the occasional short squeeze notwithstanding, it’s unlikely the bull returns anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteToday’s hit takes the port back to December 2012 levels, and has me in capital preservation mode. I don’t ‘mind’ giving up YTD performance, but I intend to protect 2012 gains! (The decline over the past week should have you thinking hard about your own exit strategies. It’s easy to dismiss a -5-6% pullback, but should prices continue to gap down the losses begin to take an emotional toll.)
2nd - I still think we're in bull mode until:
Delete(1) we stay below the 200 DMA and
(2) we take back all of 2013 gains (i.e., below 1425)
Until then I view this as the flip side of the 2007-9 fall: general trend is up with nasty spikes lower from time to time.
Right now my trading is aligned with wave structure presented here:
Deletehttp://www.thewavetrading.com/2013/06/23/weekly-analysis-0623-2/
w/ Fib-Draws to ~1508-level. Will see how to plays out...
I mixed feeling with both of you. Going to set stops. Day trade mainly.
Delete1508 - May as well, lower BB on weekly.
DeleteI have some longs holding up and I have some shorts. I'm just going to let position size, money management and stops take care of whatever happens. I had a bit of a squeeze today on my CELG position which I covered and re-entered on a five minute SPY chart. So I took some profits and then shorted it again when the SPY started selling again.
DeleteURG did well today and I traded it enough to not worry if I get stopped out.
I'm still holding a profitable TBT position but it isn't life or death sized.
I have no idea what will happen, so I'm positioned to profit either way. It's looking like it could get more serious but all it takes is a couple of good days to get back to new highs. So far we are flat for a few months now, so I'm just trying to hang onto what I've done so far.
AAPL & PIE?
ReplyDeletemmm. ok that's the signal for lunch.
DeleteOff the AUMN for 1.345 for 75$ ....joy joy.
ReplyDeleteWhy you dirty money-making dog!!!!
Deleteanyone buying NOAH?
ReplyDelete7.3 is 50% off the recent high. I remember researching this one a few months ago and really liking it. I believe it was around $7.
DeleteNo news? Other than the EOTW?
DeleteMITK- Of course your selling shares. Can't make any money.
ReplyDeletesmart move. keeps the bubble going.
DeleteExactly.
DeleteDeBello is greasy and grimy...perfect man for the job.
DeleteI'm laying it down 2nd style. We rally hard tomorrow.
ReplyDeletebig bottoming tail hammer on /zb (30 year treasurys)
Deletei've mentioned this several times but if the Chinese economy and energy is going down the shitter, then why the eff is the Baltic Dry Index breaking out?
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
Oil certainly wasn't going down the shitter today, what will you be saying if it rises to $140's? I'd be buying the shit out of it if it were in the mid $80's
DeleteSomething's buoying(A word directly from technical shipping terminology handbook!) the BDI....
if oil goes to 140 i'm hiding in a bunker and going full chicksh*t mode!
DeleteRight, $140's probably would be cause for concern. Hadn't thought of it that way but you're probably right... Sigh...
DeletePAL - The mine that only briefly was.
ReplyDeleteMM - I dunno man, that chart kinda gives me shivers and screams "stay away, I'm about to go menstrual!"
ReplyDeleteUGA - The only way you're gonna get this one any cheaper is if they're about to roll the contract.
ReplyDeleteNATI - What do you think of the April bar? There's something about this stock that intrigues me.
ReplyDeleteThis back and forth shit is getting really fucking boring. Am I clear?
ReplyDeleteLike wrestling a pig in a mud pit and realizing the pig actually likes it.
DeleteThat's it! Or trying to have a logical conversation with my wife without her bringing up some random thing that occurred 15 years ago.
DeleteNOR - Really bad day on this one, wonder what BAC is thinking about their corporate loan now?
ReplyDeleteHere's something besides oil that went up, commodities related:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVY00&name=BLS%20Raw%20Industrials&domain=crb&display_ice=1&cancelstudy=&type=LINE&studies=SMA%2813%29;&a=W
This could be the last time stones play DC.
ReplyDeleteIt's time to get stronger, guys:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sanitaryum.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/mouse-trap-lift.gif
are we the mouse or the trap?
Delete2nd,
ReplyDeleteI would say the market is pulling back hard in certain area, but not in others.
Obviously Precious Metals are in a hard pullback, and I would avoid completely. At this point, people will be looking to sell any bounce and I would expect significant tax-loss selling in the fall, so would not even consider until late in the year when you may get some great buys.
Bonds, interest rate sensitive stocks and safety stocks like utilities and consumer staples are also having a tough time. Because the S&P 500 is full of these, the broad market indexes are also falling.
BUT, outside of these areas, the damage has been far less. I've tried to avoid those areas and my personal stocks are down less than 2% this month.
For your trading, I think you have done very well making good money, especially considering your seem to be mainly in the metals and they have been in an overall downtrend for the last 2 years. I guess the one thought would be to move to parts of the market which are in uptrends - easier to win with a tailwind at your back instead of fighting the incoming storms.
Love to trade metals....took me way to long to realize being long gold and gold stocks was a losing strategy.
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