My last two trades in Emerging Markets were clearly the exact opposite of what I should have done. In other words, my last two calls rank among the worst I've made. Had I held yesterday morning (better yet, bought in at that point), I'd be sitting in the catbird seat right now.
$RBY Reports Positive Results for New Preliminary Economic Assessment and a 111% Increase in Indicated Mineral Resou http://stks.co/bZ81
ReplyDeleteTD out with a report this morning showing the effects of long term gold prices at $1,200 instead of $1,500 and reduces Net Asset Value on average by 42%.
ReplyDeleteFor example, GG goes from $27.23 to $15.26. So with GG now around $24, still downside if prices stay down here.
Can you email that?
DeleteWill do Mark.
DeleteDo you realize that had I traded 'correctly' the past week, I would be up +12% for the year, rather than down -6%? Stuff like that can waste your soul if you dwell on it too long.
ReplyDeleteCan't worry about stuff like that - happens to everyone. Just gotta take from it what you can and move forward.
DeleteI try to counter thoughts like that with the realization that I was quite fortunate things went my way (often unexpectedly) several times as well.
DeleteSold my Union Pacific (UNP) and bought back CN Rail (CNI) this morning.
ReplyDeleteWorked out well as UNP was up over 8% and CNI down 4% since I made the switch into UNP back in March.
I believe the rails are a good long term buy and hold type stock due to their limited competition and energy usage advantages over trucking, so this was just a valuation call.
BB- When did you decide to become a buy-and-hold investor? Was it at some point following the 2009 Crash, or did you ride through the storm with hand-picked stocks?
DeleteI'm mainly a swing trader looking to buy stocks for half price that can go up 50% or 100% - it usually takes several months if I am lucky or more often several years.
DeleteI've really only got around 4 buy and hold stocks that I plan on keeping long term: CNI, WMT, UL, CNQ - and I would sell them if their valuations got crazy.
I actually did a lot of buying of stocks in the fall of 2008 as I thought we would bottom in October as usual, but when we crashed down again in March, 2009, I just held and did some small adds. I figured at those prices, I just had to be patient.
My approach is to average in as prices drop and average out as they get higher.
Not so much as a travel report the past two days.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why really, but I feel sorry for Geoff.
DeleteWe know why.
DeleteMust be, they're off celebrating their wildly successful PM's trade. Yet another well deserved refreshment holiday earned for remaining focused on a single blade of grass. ;)
DeleteKinder Morgan Energy Partners L.P.: Pullback offers good entry point; upgrade to Buy
ReplyDeleteKinder Morgan Energy Partners L.P.: Pullback offers good entry point; upgrade to Buy
ReplyDeleteIt's not over for the miners. GDX seems headed for a retest of Monday's lows.
ReplyDeleteThere it is. 23.38.
DeleteAdded to my position in ING at $8.81.
ReplyDeleteThey are doing a lot of things right, paying off the Dutch government, half of book value, low P/E, financially sound even with the new Basel laws and have stated that they want to reinstate a dividend next year.
I think if you can get a non-dividend paying stock at a cheap price, it will be revalued upwards once it starts paying, so good catalyst here.
Nice inverted H&S on the 3 day SPY.
ReplyDeleteTarget ~$167 ?
DeleteSo the scam was to try shaking everyone off ahead of good econ data?
ReplyDeleteSold the CECO @ 2.86. Rinse Repeat
ReplyDeleteGoing to try the MUX, 3000 @ 1.80
ReplyDeletesee if it reverse and follow the GDXJ
DeleteTCAP - IH&S on this chart...
ReplyDeleteMy mea culpa is YRCW. I'm sorry I influenced any of you guys to sell that one. F*cking a.
ReplyDeletedont fret, if it wasnt for you, I would have been left at the train station with a 10% gain or something, instead of hte near 100% we booked
Deletei had a feeling that it would continue to rise and not allow an entry point but after it was up from $6 to $15 in like 3 days I felt too compelled to take profits. It's up 67% since then. Wow.
DeleteTough to watch. Especially considering we have had several chances to get back in 17-20$ range. Then again, it was a huge win for the home team, and that is a fact Jack!
Delete"So the scam was to try shaking everyone off ahead of good econ data?"
ReplyDeleteI mentioned yesterday man...Wall Street wants YOUR money and MINE. Every single data point I'm following shows an improving economy and still people are skeptical. I just find it hard to be bearish...
I guess people will be watching bonds closely to make sure they don't crash. So that will instill fear in the markets for a little while. So too will the whole theory that the Fed is supporting everything. Both issues should pass, just like 100 different issues have passed over the past 4 years without interrupting this bull market.
Delete"fear the Fed is supporting everything."
DeleteI'm not ordinarily one for handing a drunk the keys to his car, a suicidal maniac a loaded weapon, or even encouraging opioid dependency as fun as that may sound, however, if the FED is keeping rates artificially low, then why are they paying interest on reserves in deposit and think of the effect when that highly unusual policy eventually is reversed?
Added some NOK here at $3.8
ReplyDeleteRe YRCW, my dream would be to have the worst thing I did in a year was to sell a stock after doubling.
ReplyDeleteyeah i hear what you're saying. i shouldn't complain. but saw this going to $30 and just thought it would take 12 to 18 months.
DeleteP&L wise buying WLT was my worst mistake. i was lucky to get out in the $17's and not go all in. i had a feeling there were too many dip buyers in the coal stocks.
by the way, i'm going out on a limb and saying that YRCW is going to be a bad investment for the next 6 months.
DeleteYRCW reached the price target today. Risk is now zero barring a massive gap down.
Deletewhat was the target?
Delete26.50
DeleteSomething is up with NOK man. There have been some big block orders going through the past couple of days and it's been sitting up above $3.78 for the past week ever since there was that buyout rumor. I think this thing is gearing up for another run.
ReplyDeleteURG - Crackle snap and oh what a nice pop! ;)
ReplyDeleteSPY - Speaking of IH&S, I see the potential for one on this chart as well, could be we're working on the head right now. If so, the target would be ~$175ish?:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=spy&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
i gotta be honest i really don't find much use in chart patterns and trendlines. they always seem to get violated and have little consistent reliability. i do like using support and resistance areas and those make sense from a practical standpoint: e.g., lots of volume at $7, then stock gaps down to $5.5 so naturally people will say "if it just gets back to even i'm out"...hence $7 resistance.
Delete175'ish compares well w/ an ending-diagonal draw ...
Deletehttp://www.thewavetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/SPX-WEEKLY-TZZ-EDZ.png
and we need some reversal pattern to get up there
actually one pattern i do look for is the ascending triangle. i've found that one to be pretty bullish. basically it's just a spike high followed by a move gradually higher with higher lows that keeps testing that spike high. eventually it breaks out above the spike high and results in a nice move higher.
DeleteSPY - right now it's stuck in the HVN (high volume node) 'attractor' region 157.50-159 going back to end-of-April / early-May
DeleteDude, we needed a new, inspirational pattern we all could follow and comprehend. Otherwise we'd all still be walking down a dark, directionless hallway to nowhere. ;)
DeleteCP - Here you go Bubba ... the Deep Crab ;-)
DeletePeter Ghostine @PeterGhostine
$SPY the last down leg that began at Friday's high and ended yesterday was retraced by 0.886. Now I'm looking for a 50% retracement.
$SPY... The harmonic pattern I'm anticipating is the Deep Crab. It requires a drop to 157.47 before rallying to 161.94.
what about the Nikkei Samurai Pattern (NSP)? Bubble move north followed by collapse, followed by slow bumpy grind higher.
Delete"Nikkei Samurai Pattern (NSP)? Bubble move north followed by collapse, followed by slow bumpy grind higher."
DeleteSounds pretty sexy, those moves can come fast and unexpectedly. I'd suggest a raincoat stop limit or diaphragm hedge, under such circumstances.
The Deep Crab - Mixed feelings on that, leaves me wondering if he meant anticipatory hormonal pattern as opposed to harmonic.....
DeleteDeep Crab - here is what he has in mind ...
Deletehttp://charts.61point8.com/20130626-SPX.png
Anyone interested in picking up miners for a bounce?
ReplyDeleteBought some MUX above...yet to be seen if I carry it overnight.
DeleteThey're all junk! I was having a beautiful day till seeing your post full of curse words! ;)
DeletePeach PIE, no AAPL.......?
ReplyDeleteTomorrow we give back how much? I say half maybe? chopfest higher...
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete