Commodities move in cycles - it's always the nature of the business.
Agriculture is the shortest, about 18 months. The reason for that is if corn is highly priced one year, more farmers will plant the following spring and bring the price down.
Mining is the longest, because of the time and cost required to bring a mine onstream, then, once it is producing, the marginal cost for metal can be quite low, so shutting down supply also tends to take a long time. That is why we had a 12 year bull market, but also likely why we are now in a long-term bear.
At this time, gold is in oversupply. Billions have been invested in new mines and that is coming onstream. Additionally, we had "temporary" demand from ETF's which is now adding to supply as people reduce holdings. Oversupply means prices will drop.
Finally, we've got people looking to get out now (even my gold bug friends aren't buying), so any rally is sold and in a couple of months, we will have further pressure from tax loss selling.
Maybe you can time an oversold bounce, but lots of easier places and the bounce in metals may not come this year.
Take a look at hotel company AHT - down almost 20% in a week due to the market pullback and an ill-timed stock issue. Hotels are still in a good supply/demand situation, the stock has been in a solid uptrend, and the financing should drive future growth, so the price should recover quickly. Probably not my favourtie stock to buy here as I like to hold for more than a bounce (my ING purchase today has more long term upside), but the odds of a bounce sure look good.
I'm afraid we're guilty of overlooking the forest for the trees..... Why all the emphasis on PM's at near double pre-crisis? So you can pick up 2% on your portfoldio? See chart, add 2+2, it's not gonna add up to more than 4
Meanwhile, back at the ranch.......
SAN - H&S pattern on the 1yr SAN chart, now do you really believe this hook, line, and sinker Wall Street is trying to sell you?
Don't fact check my numbers cause I can't remember them exactly, but I heard something interesting on the radio the other day...Something like since 2009 the top 2% in the US has increased it's wealth by $1T and the student loan debt has increased by $1T over the same period.
My daughter just graduated from University with a 4-year degree in Health Sciences. Fortunately, she doesn't have any debt, but she got a better job than most of her friends at a laser eye clinic making $12 an hour (minimum wage in Ontario is $10.50). But, how could a student be expected to pay off a $40,000 student loan with that kind of a wage?
Because of her lack of funds, she got a job waitressing Saturday nights, and makes around $30 an hour doing this including tips.
But you do wonder about our system when everyone is being pushed to get more education and take on more debt, but the best money making opportunities are elsewhere. My wife also works for a homebuilder and they are desperate for guys to do simple siding and paying up for them now as well.
"how could a student be expected to pay off a $40,000 student loan with that kind of a wage?" "everyone is being pushed to get more education"
This is why I feel the educational emphasis is on the wrong areas, probably someone thinks an excess of degreed professionals will somehow reverse the trade deficit?
More like our economy doesn't operate on a fiat monetary system anymore, it's all credit based?
FMD - "This is why FMD earns my "Dangerous" rating"
"First Marblehead's GAAP net income was $1.1 billion in 2012, up substantially from a loss of $221 million in 2011. In fact, in terms of GAAP earnings, 2012 was FMD's best year by a wide margin. However, when this one-time non-operating gain was removed from FMD's income, its NOPAT showed a loss of $44 million, its fifth consecutive year of losses in my model. First Marblehead's deconsolidation of its holdings in its own trust may have boosted its accounting earnings in 2012, but the business still has a basic inability to turn a profit through its core operations and generate any consistent value for investors. This is why FMD earns my Dangerous rating."
cheapy's latest comment says it all, and he has a way with words.
As for me, 'Everyone's a genius in a bull market' has never rung more true, whether the market refers to stocks, miners, or gold. It's no coincidence the sister site orginated in 2004, just as gold began a meteoric rise through 2012.
FOLLOW THE MONEY LOSING NARRATIVE: The Fundamental Bull Case For Gold Has Not Changed | Yahoo! News http://news.yahoo.com/video/jim-rickards-fundamental-bull-case-194612028.html …
Got Random Thoughts? "The marked bounced on Tuesday but based on the magnitude of the recent slide, it appears to be just that-a bounce.
Bonds continued lower to close at multi-year lows
Gold also closed right at multi-year lows. As I have been saying, when you see gold go down with everything else it suggests a liquidation type market--see recent newsletters.
Most sectors remain in downtrends. What's concerning is that recently stronger areas like insurance have now begun to roll over. This is why it is dangerous to play the high relative strength game (i.e. buy stronger areas) when the overall market remains questionable. See yesterday's newsletter:
So, even with Tuesday's bounce, not much changes. So far, the indices, most sectors, bonds, gold, you name it, remains in downtrends or questionable at best. The longer the market remains below the 50 day moving average and below overhead supply (the recent consolidation), the more pressure will be put on those to exit. If the market comes right back, then the buy and hope crowd will be rewarded and will continue to sit on their hands. So, we (still) need a massive rally, and quick.
So what do we do? Keep an eye out for new shorts but you might want to wait for the market to bounce from oversold before establishing new positions. Avoid the long side for now unless you really like a setup and think it can trade contra to the overall market. Manage existing shorts. Take partial profits as offered and trail your stops lower. Honor your stops on existing longs. Yet again, letting the ebb and flow of money management and portfolio management can help to keep you on the right side of the market/in the right issues---especially in questionable conditions.
If prices are deemed unlikely to move appreciably higher, people will take their gains. So far, most times they've been wrong.
Im thinking sideways with bouts of delevering (China or eurobanks?) and more of the same profit taking along with a continuous flurry of misleading media stories?
LCRX - Isn't this the company that's going to be building INTC's 450mm plasma etcher? Interesting, INTC used to use TEL's etchers so that's quite a change.....
LCRX bought Varian's most excellent portfolio of plasma deposition patents.
I'm still rather glad I bought NLY for the dividend, otherwise all my work here at the command console would've been a complete waste of time up until now.
any of you guys follow KNDI? they had an offering today. i mentioned this one a week or two ago i think. I see that Stephen Stewart took a position on 6/24. i like this right at the offering price if you can get it. looks good risk-reward.
verniman @verniman6m $ES_F: Papers buying at highs adding volume for a potential shift of value. If buyers can hold LVN 1595 watch 1604 http://twitpic.com/czbrw4
Bigger picture I still see nothing wrong with the market's move. It broke out, came back and retested old highs and is moving higher. WTF is wrong with that?
That is what I suggested as well - June a consolidation month, followed by a renewal of the market rise in July. The worry time will be the traditional Sept. / Oct.
Not many people saying the correction has ended, but maybe that's why it has?
Okay, so that means we are testing resistance here and should know pretty soon for whom the bell tolls. Hmm, there has to be some association with an near-term economic datapoint of some sort, I just don't know what that catalyst might be.
Market-Profile traders still leaning positive. ES_F RTH Balanced Projection is still to ~1604
verniman @verniman $ES_F: RTH profile shows a D shape. Breakout mode. An open below value here would be bearish. Otherwise, we are now in bullish territory.
Check out his comments: https://twitter.com/verniman
I'm gonna predict that silver tests $18.20 soon, that fails and it slides on down through $17.80 on it's way to a $16 handle. Assuming panic ensues, $14 or less could mark a bottom.
Wouldn't surprise me to see silver back around $12 or lower. That's where it was before SLV got created I recall.
Plus, a lot of silver is a mining byproduct, so it gets sold on the market regardless of price. Same as Nat Gas which is also often a by-product and we saw what happened to pricing on that.
I'm long a few miners myself plus FCX. Most of them are small positions and now they look like call options. FCX - I have a bigger position there and of course this is an investment. I do a lousy job investing.
I certainly didn't intend for this to be a not for profit enterprise.
BC seems to have a good strategy of picking good companies and trading around these, selling puts when RSI hit 30, calls at 70.
Somewhere along the way, he fell victim to the gold bug illness.
Extreme Bull markets make people do strange things. I think back to some of the things people did in the Nasdaq bubble and it seems like the same thing, all over again.
"And lest you think anyone knows how it will — how a “free” market will react after being manipulated for almost five years, think again. In order to make an educated assessment, you must have experience in the matter and there isn’t a person on earth — in the history of earth — who has navigated this course before."
I pull up Buzz and Banter most days. The new job has me so busy that I haven't been able to read most of it over the last couple of weeks but I think I saw that Todd is mostly long SPY puts either today or yesterday.
Wonder when the last bear throws himself under the bus? Has it always been this way, these guys talking down every 5 year monster rally in history? Why shouldn't the SPY be approaching double, if we experienced a 2:1 split? Did that really happen, I thought corporate America was buying shares? Maybe I misread.....
I notice he forgot to mention the FED is paying interest on reserves, something that's never been done before as far as I know, this practice should buoy rates, not suppress them?
no need to read, just scroll thru and look at the headlines. Sometimes it pays to just be lucky. Maybe Dan Zanger was just lucky. He did the right thing at the right time?
Mark, you're right in that SLW is one of the stocks whose value goes down the least, but it would still trades at 120% of net asset value at current prices, so would probably go down in a weak market as it currently is at 83% of NAV.
There are still come stocks undervalued on a NAV basis at $1,200 gold - IAG, EGO, LSG, SMF.TO, CG.TO, but I haven't done work on these.
Cara favourite, NGD, is trading at 72% of NAV at $1,500 gold, but 130% of NAV at $1,200, so some serious downside there.
I like going thru Stewart's charts when I have time.
SPWR looks like a 2 year cup with a handle pattern to me. So maybe buy now with a stop just below the weekly low or wait for a breakout above the recent hi of $23.76? http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPWR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p37806640332
I like this 2 yr chart of the SPY. The last time we bowtied was Oct/Nov 2012. It took 2 months to trade above that level. The time before that we bowtied in May12 and it took about 3 months to trade above the bowtie.
We just bowtied.
Also, BB mentioned Bill's RSI system. The RSI and MACD look like better entry tools on this chart for a person with patience.
"http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-tries-to-teach-us-free-market-capitalism-2013-06-26?link=mw_story_kiosk" - why is it that every 3 to 8% pullback over the past 4 years has been followed by articles like these? this is the EXACT reason why it has paid to be bullish...because no one believes in it.
" And lest you think anyone knows how it will — how a “free” market will react after being manipulated for almost five years, think again. In order to make an educated assessment, you must have experience in the matter and there isn’t a person on earth — in the history of earth — who has navigated this course before. "
oh please dude. give me a friggin break. i take this as nothing more than a writer trying to stir up emotions for page views, current and future. no one knew how any "crisis" would shake out ahead of time over the past 150 years and yet after each time the market recovered and went to new highs.
I love driving in Texas, took me about 6 months to realize how much fun I could have cutting off the aggressive drivers. First time I've ever had a spare tire bounce over my vehicle too, thought it was gonna hit me square in the windshield, that thing was bouncing 20ft in the air.
Buy list for tomorrow, smaller positions using stops and first sell price targets
Stewart picks SCTY - enter around this level, below $38 which doesn't give me many shares with a stop around $32. SPWR - enter around this level, below $21 with a stop around $17.00.
It's becoming a bad joke:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Commodities move in cycles - it's always the nature of the business.
DeleteAgriculture is the shortest, about 18 months. The reason for that is if corn is highly priced one year, more farmers will plant the following spring and bring the price down.
Mining is the longest, because of the time and cost required to bring a mine onstream, then, once it is producing, the marginal cost for metal can be quite low, so shutting down supply also tends to take a long time. That is why we had a 12 year bull market, but also likely why we are now in a long-term bear.
At this time, gold is in oversupply. Billions have been invested in new mines and that is coming onstream. Additionally, we had "temporary" demand from ETF's which is now adding to supply as people reduce holdings. Oversupply means prices will drop.
Finally, we've got people looking to get out now (even my gold bug friends aren't buying), so any rally is sold and in a couple of months, we will have further pressure from tax loss selling.
Maybe you can time an oversold bounce, but lots of easier places and the bounce in metals may not come this year.
Take a look at hotel company AHT - down almost 20% in a week due to the market pullback and an ill-timed stock issue. Hotels are still in a good supply/demand situation, the stock has been in a solid uptrend, and the financing should drive future growth, so the price should recover quickly. Probably not my favourtie stock to buy here as I like to hold for more than a bounce (my ING purchase today has more long term upside), but the odds of a bounce sure look good.
Supporting chart:
Deletehttp://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2013/06/the-price-of-gold-adjusted-for-inflation.html
Very clean convincing argument bro.
DeleteI'm afraid we're guilty of overlooking the forest for the trees..... Why all the emphasis on PM's at near double pre-crisis? So you can pick up 2% on your portfoldio? See chart, add 2+2, it's not gonna add up to more than 4
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, back at the ranch.......
SAN - H&S pattern on the 1yr SAN chart, now do you really believe this hook, line, and sinker Wall Street is trying to sell you?
Don't fact check my numbers cause I can't remember them exactly, but I heard something interesting on the radio the other day...Something like since 2009 the top 2% in the US has increased it's wealth by $1T and the student loan debt has increased by $1T over the same period.
ReplyDeleteMy daughter just graduated from University with a 4-year degree in Health Sciences. Fortunately, she doesn't have any debt, but she got a better job than most of her friends at a laser eye clinic making $12 an hour (minimum wage in Ontario is $10.50). But, how could a student be expected to pay off a $40,000 student loan with that kind of a wage?
DeleteBecause of her lack of funds, she got a job waitressing Saturday nights, and makes around $30 an hour doing this including tips.
But you do wonder about our system when everyone is being pushed to get more education and take on more debt, but the best money making opportunities are elsewhere. My wife also works for a homebuilder and they are desperate for guys to do simple siding and paying up for them now as well.
"how could a student be expected to pay off a $40,000 student loan with that kind of a wage?" "everyone is being pushed to get more education"
DeleteThis is why I feel the educational emphasis is on the wrong areas, probably someone thinks an excess of degreed professionals will somehow reverse the trade deficit?
More like our economy doesn't operate on a fiat monetary system anymore, it's all credit based?
FMD - "This is why FMD earns my "Dangerous" rating"
ReplyDelete"First Marblehead's GAAP net income was $1.1 billion in 2012, up substantially from a loss of $221 million in 2011. In fact, in terms of GAAP earnings, 2012 was FMD's best year by a wide margin. However, when this one-time non-operating gain was removed from FMD's income, its NOPAT showed a loss of $44 million, its fifth consecutive year of losses in my model. First Marblehead's deconsolidation of its holdings in its own trust may have boosted its accounting earnings in 2012, but the business still has a basic inability to turn a profit through its core operations and generate any consistent value for investors. This is why FMD earns my Dangerous rating."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1517152-income-and-loss-from-discontinued-operations?source=yahoo
Gold down another $50 this morning - so hard to know when we will bottom.
ReplyDeletecheapy's latest comment says it all, and he has a way with words.
DeleteAs for me, 'Everyone's a genius in a bull market' has never rung more true, whether the market refers to stocks, miners, or gold. It's no coincidence the sister site orginated in 2004, just as gold began a meteoric rise through 2012.
Barry Ritholtz @ritholtz
DeleteFOLLOW THE MONEY LOSING NARRATIVE: The Fundamental Bull Case For Gold Has Not Changed | Yahoo! News http://news.yahoo.com/video/jim-rickards-fundamental-bull-case-194612028.html …
$1221 was the lower target, didn't quite get that low but nearly before a few buyers stepped in?
DeleteLooks dangerous, to me...
Got Random Thoughts?
ReplyDelete"The marked bounced on Tuesday but based on the magnitude of the recent slide, it appears to be just that-a bounce.
Bonds continued lower to close at multi-year lows
Gold also closed right at multi-year lows. As I have been saying, when you see gold go down with everything else it suggests a liquidation type market--see recent newsletters.
Most sectors remain in downtrends. What's concerning is that recently stronger areas like insurance have now begun to roll over. This is why it is dangerous to play the high relative strength game (i.e. buy stronger areas) when the overall market remains questionable. See yesterday's newsletter:
http://www.tradingcommentary.com/the-tide-is-falling-should-you-jump-ships/
So, even with Tuesday's bounce, not much changes. So far, the indices, most sectors, bonds, gold, you name it, remains in downtrends or questionable at best. The longer the market remains below the 50 day moving average and below overhead supply (the recent consolidation), the more pressure will be put on those to exit. If the market comes right back, then the buy and hope crowd will be rewarded and will continue to sit on their hands. So, we (still) need a massive rally, and quick.
So what do we do? Keep an eye out for new shorts but you might want to wait for the market to bounce from oversold before establishing new positions. Avoid the long side for now unless you really like a setup and think it can trade contra to the overall market. Manage existing shorts. Take partial profits as offered and trail your stops lower. Honor your stops on existing longs. Yet again, letting the ebb and flow of money management and portfolio management can help to keep you on the right side of the market/in the right issues---especially in questionable conditions.
Futures are strong pre-market"
If prices are deemed unlikely to move appreciably higher, people will take their gains. So far, most times they've been wrong.
ReplyDeleteIm thinking sideways with bouts of delevering (China or eurobanks?) and more of the same profit taking along with a continuous flurry of misleading media stories?
You sure got the very last part right!
DeleteUnfortunately, the last part casts a large net over the primary focus. :(
DeleteLCRX - Isn't this the company that's going to be building INTC's 450mm plasma etcher? Interesting, INTC used to use TEL's etchers so that's quite a change.....
ReplyDeleteLCRX bought Varian's most excellent portfolio of plasma deposition patents.
Jamie Lissette @jamielissette
ReplyDeleteIf you are a gay wedding planner who is short both silver and gold, today is your day.
Oh, stop trying to make me feel giddy!
DeleteNLY - Placed on BACML's US1 list but with a hold rating, something's not being updated, probably they upgraded to buy....
ReplyDeleteI'm still rather glad I bought NLY for the dividend, otherwise all my work here at the command console would've been a complete waste of time up until now.
Deleteany of you guys follow KNDI? they had an offering today. i mentioned this one a week or two ago i think. I see that Stephen Stewart took a position on 6/24. i like this right at the offering price if you can get it. looks good risk-reward.
ReplyDeleteUGA - Big ugly H&S, I just know it's fake.
ReplyDeleteRAS still well above its 200 DMA...yields 7%.
ReplyDeleteI like the way you're thinking, encore! MORL pays 33%......
DeleteES_f Balanced target projecting to 1604'ish ...
ReplyDeleteverniman @verniman6m
$ES_F: Papers buying at highs adding volume for a potential shift of value. If buyers can hold LVN 1595 watch 1604 http://twitpic.com/czbrw4
I mentioned when we were at 1,630 that we would close flat for the month. Can they possibly still do this?
ReplyDeleteSure. I'm showing 1630'ish as the next HVN after the lower-volume region 1605-1620'ish.
DeleteBigger picture I still see nothing wrong with the market's move. It broke out, came back and retested old highs and is moving higher. WTF is wrong with that?
DeleteThat is what I suggested as well - June a consolidation month, followed by a renewal of the market rise in July. The worry time will be the traditional Sept. / Oct.
DeleteNot many people saying the correction has ended, but maybe that's why it has?
"Not many people saying the correction has ended, but maybe that's why it has?" that's what i am gathering as well when i read the blogs...
Delete"WTF is wrong with that?"
DeleteYep, maybe the market is beginning to reconsider the FED's GDP forecast?
SPX -- look like it ran up against both the fib50 @ 1607.26 (post-FOMC down leg) and the downtrend line drawn from 1687.18 and 1648.69
DeleteOkay, so that means we are testing resistance here and should know pretty soon for whom the bell tolls. Hmm, there has to be some association with an near-term economic datapoint of some sort, I just don't know what that catalyst might be.
DeleteMarket-Profile traders still leaning positive. ES_F RTH Balanced Projection is still to ~1604
Deleteverniman @verniman
$ES_F: RTH profile shows a D shape. Breakout mode. An open below value here would be bearish. Otherwise, we are now in bullish territory.
Check out his comments:
https://twitter.com/verniman
key comment ..
Delete$ES_F: Watching The Big Picture. Here we are in the middle of #ValueTransition from the HVN 1584 to the HVN 1612. http://twitpic.com/czbyjt
$17.76 rings a bell, don't it? Just too funny, proof of how arbitrary market prices can become.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna predict that silver tests $18.20 soon, that fails and it slides on down through $17.80 on it's way to a $16 handle. Assuming panic ensues, $14 or less could mark a bottom.
DeleteWouldn't surprise me to see silver back around $12 or lower. That's where it was before SLV got created I recall.
DeletePlus, a lot of silver is a mining byproduct, so it gets sold on the market regardless of price. Same as Nat Gas which is also often a by-product and we saw what happened to pricing on that.
Sat on hands today
ReplyDeleteNOK still looks good. Still holding.
ReplyDeleteTrade of the month: Long DUST. Up 110%.
ReplyDeleteNice GDX:GLD (wkly)chart ...
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/message/14314559
Greg Harmon, CMT @harmongreg
$GDX miners lag on the way up and lead on the way down vs $GLD - follow price http://stks.co/ib2Z
Right, ABX's EPSttm make it look like they couldn't turn a profit despite the highest gold prices ever in history.
DeleteMakes me think there never was anything near shortage of physical supply, it was all a paper sham.
afternoon,
ReplyDeleteStewart shows he went long DWRE on 6/20/13 which would be somewhere between 35.48 and 37.41. The chart looks good.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DWRE&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p41021883652&a=307246073
whoops, got my "bull snorts" and "RSI muscle" mixed up.
Deletei bot a small position in GOOG on Monday. Closed it out today for a small gain because GOOG isn't moving like the rest of the market.
ReplyDeleteIt was quite busy today, and I dropped the ball in more ways than one. Long story short, SLW opened 18.1x, closed 17.8x.
ReplyDeleteI probably wouldn't have been able to sell, had I bought.
DeleteTypical 16:00-20:00 .01% rise in PM's to make longs feel all warm and fuzzy...
ReplyDeleteSome very nice market profile charts here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.charthub.com/browse-charts
SPY (for instance:
http://www.charthub.com/charts/2013/06/26/stock_master390_1306261517
showing Composite LVN/HVN regions
Let me express condolences for those of our friends who are long miners. It would have better had most of them never ventured onto Big Sis.
ReplyDelete"It's no coincidence the sister site originated in 2004, just as gold began a meteoric rise through 2012."
DeleteHave been thinking about this comment all day. Maybe -- 20/20 hind-sight reveals much.
I'm long a few miners myself plus FCX. Most of them are small positions and now they look like call options. FCX - I have a bigger position there and of course this is an investment. I do a lousy job investing.
DeleteI certainly didn't intend for this to be a not for profit enterprise.
BC seems to have a good strategy of picking good companies and trading around these, selling puts when RSI hit 30, calls at 70.
DeleteSomewhere along the way, he fell victim to the gold bug illness.
Extreme Bull markets make people do strange things. I think back to some of the things people did in the Nasdaq bubble and it seems like the same thing, all over again.
I agree with you on that. I did like his top 100 list.
DeleteWorth a read:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-tries-to-teach-us-free-market-capitalism-2013-06-26?link=mw_story_kiosk
Makes me want to reopen my TBT position.
DeleteI love this comment.
"And lest you think anyone knows how it will — how a “free” market will react after being manipulated for almost five years, think again. In order to make an educated assessment, you must have experience in the matter and there isn’t a person on earth — in the history of earth — who has navigated this course before."
I pull up Buzz and Banter most days. The new job has me so busy that I haven't been able to read most of it over the last couple of weeks but I think I saw that Todd is mostly long SPY puts either today or yesterday.
DeleteWonder when the last bear throws himself under the bus? Has it always been this way, these guys talking down every 5 year monster rally in history? Why shouldn't the SPY be approaching double, if we experienced a 2:1 split? Did that really happen, I thought corporate America was buying shares? Maybe I misread.....
DeleteI notice he forgot to mention the FED is paying interest on reserves, something that's never been done before as far as I know, this practice should buoy rates, not suppress them?
Courtesy 'milesquare:'
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/most-bullish-gold-price-targets-2013-6?op=1
no need to read, just scroll thru and look at the headlines. Sometimes it pays to just be lucky. Maybe Dan Zanger was just lucky. He did the right thing at the right time?
DeleteI just looked at the CC site. I'm assuming most of those guys didn't use stops either. My biggest regret? Not using stops.
ReplyDeletePIE - Definitely not AAPL....
ReplyDeleteHere's some PIE with a FALLING KNIFE pattern. It seemed appropriate. I suppose the buy trigger is now?
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PIE&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50247247455
Looked closer at the TD report BB sent me. 2 take aways...1- If your long a PM miners don't read it, and 2, I think SLW is a buy here.
ReplyDeleteAm I reading it right BB?
Mark, you're right in that SLW is one of the stocks whose value goes down the least, but it would still trades at 120% of net asset value at current prices, so would probably go down in a weak market as it currently is at 83% of NAV.
DeleteThere are still come stocks undervalued on a NAV basis at $1,200 gold - IAG, EGO, LSG, SMF.TO, CG.TO, but I haven't done work on these.
Cara favourite, NGD, is trading at 72% of NAV at $1,500 gold, but 130% of NAV at $1,200, so some serious downside there.
I like going thru Stewart's charts when I have time.
ReplyDeleteSPWR looks like a 2 year cup with a handle pattern to me. So maybe buy now with a stop just below the weekly low or wait for a breakout above the recent hi of $23.76?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPWR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p37806640332
http://comediansincarsgettingcoffee.com/sarah-silverman-i-m-going-to-change-your-life-forever
ReplyDeleteI like this 2 yr chart of the SPY. The last time we bowtied was Oct/Nov 2012. It took 2 months to trade above that level. The time before that we bowtied in May12 and it took about 3 months to trade above the bowtie.
ReplyDeleteWe just bowtied.
Also, BB mentioned Bill's RSI system. The RSI and MACD look like better entry tools on this chart for a person with patience.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p11211590706
SCTY - Looks like it may take off again...
ReplyDelete"http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-tries-to-teach-us-free-market-capitalism-2013-06-26?link=mw_story_kiosk" - why is it that every 3 to 8% pullback over the past 4 years has been followed by articles like these? this is the EXACT reason why it has paid to be bullish...because no one believes in it.
ReplyDelete" And lest you think anyone knows how it will — how a “free” market will react after being manipulated for almost five years, think again. In order to make an educated assessment, you must have experience in the matter and there isn’t a person on earth — in the history of earth — who has navigated this course before. "
Deleteoh please dude. give me a friggin break. i take this as nothing more than a writer trying to stir up emotions for page views, current and future. no one knew how any "crisis" would shake out ahead of time over the past 150 years and yet after each time the market recovered and went to new highs.
2nd believes in that crap too, notice everytime 2nd buys something he gets his ass handed to him? I think it's because he reads this crap too much.
Deletei feel the same way when someone cuts me off in traffic. none of these guys make me feel like that though.
Delete"when someone cuts me off in traffic"
DeleteI love driving in Texas, took me about 6 months to realize how much fun I could have cutting off the aggressive drivers. First time I've ever had a spare tire bounce over my vehicle too, thought it was gonna hit me square in the windshield, that thing was bouncing 20ft in the air.
You must have been in Austin then cuz ur still alive.
DeleteSEP - Barely flinched, then broke to the upside again.
ReplyDeleteBuy list for tomorrow, smaller positions using stops and first sell price targets
ReplyDeleteStewart picks
SCTY - enter around this level, below $38 which doesn't give me many shares with a stop around $32.
SPWR - enter around this level, below $21 with a stop around $17.00.
I hardly hear any mention of natural gas anymore.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNG&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p26197102512
I guess flat for 9 months causes traders to lose interest...
DeleteRobot - Flipped long yesterday, at 1601
ReplyDeleteI guess we need to hold this level, at least.
What is Robot's track record like? Seems like it would do well in trending markets, but give a lot back in markets like recently.
DeleteBB- Isn't SLV's NAV @ gold/1,200 17.04?
ReplyDeleteYes, but the stock price is $18.19.
DeleteThe mine royalty companies do get better valuations, but I don't think it will trade above NAV in a weak silver environment.
Thanks. I wanted to make sure I was reading it right.
DeleteFMD - 3k shares traded so far, nobody wants to sell here?
ReplyDeleteA little bad news would I'm sure cause someone to throw in the towel.
I keep trying to get in at 1.08. The MM never shows my bid.
DeleteFMAR - This puppy took a dive, looks like it trades based on nothing, just like S&P. hmm...
ReplyDelete