Wednesday, July 24, 2013
07/24/13 Plan B, Steve Ford, and the waning of responsible behavior in America
So Plan B has been approved for sale with no age restrictions:
http://www.npr.org/blogs/health/2013/07/24/205182187/plan-b-to-hit-shelves-protected-from-generics
I'm probably in the minority (and there's little doubt I'm politically incorrect), but I see it as a (bad) sign of the times. I can remember when fathering a child out of wedlock was reason enough to 'man up' and get married. The following story re Steve Ford's paternity suit in 1980 was very much a reflection of American expectations in a bygone era:
http://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=888&dat=19800229&id=HBsmAAAAIBAJ&sjid=dloDAAAAIBAJ&pg=2460,4816220
It's troubling to read about a $50 off-the-shelf solution to irresponsible behavior.
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"It's troubling to read about a $50 solution to irresponsible behavior. "
ReplyDeleteSo what do you think the purpose of those political campaign contributions is?
To me, it's more troubling to witness how black market forces have dictated the professional decision making process.
BALT - Will the strength continue going forward? Today's candle looks rather suspicious to me, but it could be profit takers here get left behind?
ReplyDeleteI'm sure there will be irresponsible behavior, there always has been, but there will also be failed birth control (broken condoms)and rapes where this product (or perhaps the less expensive alternatives) will be a big help. It isn't always irresponsibility.
ReplyDeleteI just wish the politics and backdoor deal making wasn't part of it.
FMD - Looking good, hope nobody got shaken out on yesterday's fake move.
ReplyDeleteDon't read anything into these tickers.
ReplyDeleteADHD
FST
"treatment of neurological disturbance."
DeleteSign me up, watching prices these past several years I firmly qualify!
DANG! oh my! New 52 week high. Same with a lot of Chinese internet stocks actually.
ReplyDeleteAnyone that has sold FMD has regretted it within a few days. So far...
"Anyone that has sold FMD has regretted it within a few days."
DeleteSOAB if that's not the truth, about to kick my own azz for letting those 2k shares go instead of adding more in a big way, LOL! Fortunately though, I kept my initial position...
FST - $4.45 entry perhaps? I do need an oil play....
ReplyDeleteWow. They stopped out a lot of people in RUTH today. Was an excellent entry.
ReplyDeleteCAKE taking it on the chin. That's one I would look closely at.
DeleteSo earnings are looking like they will be up 5% year on year. Now what would they be if Europe continues to improve???
ReplyDelete"what would they be if Europe continues to improve???"
DeleteMy guess is, umm... Even better? Also looks like maybe China has been sand-bagging lately, perhaps in retaliation over Japanese monetary policy or is it simply more of the same misleading Wall Street campaign of tripe?
One thing we can count on is most everything we read is misleading or blown out of proportion, I ain't betting against Europe, that's for sure.
IEV yields 3%. I like that one if you want to go the slow safer money route.
DeleteFMD - Watching today's price action is assisting my self-neurorehabilitation efforts (with a little help from my friends).
ReplyDelete"What would you think if I sang out of tune, would you stand up and walk out on me?"
CAKE - Sounds like a good idea maybe, I'll begin concentrating on an entry for this one...
ReplyDeleteI honestly don't follow the fundamentals but I know the restaurant very well. We love going there and so too does my wife's family. Every one I've ever gone to has been jam packed and the thing I've noticed is how much room they have to expand. The closest one from us (we're about 25 minutes north of downtown San Diego) is 30 minutes away. There are only 2 in all of San Diego county. They only have 160 or so in the entire US and I don't think they have a single international location.
DeleteLooks like EPS and income are almost equal, that seems kind of odd.
DeleteOh duh, those are the same thing... See, it's a neurological phenomenon...
DeleteSo let's see, income is around $643k/store/365 = $1760/day
I'll just shut up now instead of thinking out loud...
Based on sales, then each store daily sales would be $31.5k, that sounds really large, I wouldn't have anticipated nearly that much.
Delete"Based on sales, then each store daily sales would be $31.5k, that sounds really large, I wouldn't have anticipated nearly that much."
DeleteEvery time I go there there are huge lines out of the door. I'm sure you could estimate sales at each one but looking at avg party size, ticket size etc. I just read that they have 175 stores. That's still incredibly small. By comparison there were 2,010 Applebees stores as of Dec 2011, 1,168 Chili's, 915 TGI Fridays, 900 Buffalo Wild Wings....full list here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_casual_dining_restaurant_chains
Looking like some of today's sellers may have been hosed, need to see how it goes tomorrow but I think I have some idea if today's close is any indication, could be short covering too though.
DeleteSeems like a pretty strong stock. I dunno, maybe sellers will try closing the April gap up soon?
If that's an H&S there, we might get in for just under $36.....
DeleteFB - OMG +30%
ReplyDeleteBMY - A dud? TBD perhaps, but not compelling.
Wonder what's in store for the coming consumer discretionary figures?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-first-shall-be-last-even-in-markets-2013-07-24?link=MW_TD_latest
ReplyDeleteI just want to say that you heard the 'last shall be first/first shall be last' play here first, on July 20.
Everyone reads DT, apparently, LOL! FMD will visit $20 next week. (This is a closely held DT secret, BTW.)
Deleteinteresting stuff. although i must say i'm still seeing a lot of skepticism / hesitancy amongst traders...apparently the story is that the move down in the transportation stocks after making new highs a few days ago was a ominous sign.
DeleteTRP - I hadn't noticed this one recently was beat down to $42 No surprise, an ahead of earnings beatdown in traditional fashion, now where does it go?
ReplyDeleteFMD - 8-K should be announced soon, last announcement was April 29th I don't see an announced date for this Q for some reason.
VMW - Quite a bounce back, I stopped watching and BANG!
ReplyDeletefmd off @ 1.90
ReplyDeleteGreat stock TOF....well done bud!
Back in at 1.87
DeleteLBMH up big today.
ReplyDeletethat didnt last long
DeleteBack in CECO 3.65
ReplyDeleteIs FB going back to IPO list price? Yep, but it dips a bit first.
ReplyDeleteThe TVIX hedge sure is having a hard time getting traction today.
ReplyDeleteConsumer confidence reading of 85.1...we just passed above the middle line for the past 35 years...despite being at all time highs we are well below 100 which is where every other bull market has peaked. Consumers are in the acceptance phase of this bull market in my opinion. They realized that the bears are wrong and are accepting that things are getting better...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.financialsense.com/sites/default/files/users/u618/images/2012/0914/Michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.jpg
http://joefahmy.com/2013/07/25/the-main-reason-the-stock-market-keeps-going-higher/
ReplyDeleteNo one wants to be THAT guy. You know, the one that finally caves in and buys right at the top. So we sit and wait for that big pullback. That one that we will buy with both fists. Finally a minor pullback comes and everyone agrees that the top is finally in on this fake market. Sorry bulls it was fun while it lasted but now its your turn for pain. They're right after all...the Fed has supported everything. So perhaps its smart to wait for a bigger drop. Weird thing happens, though, the pullback is over before we know it. So we sit and wait some more. And the market goes higher still. So we just give up. Life's too short to care about this crap. Besides, the Fed is supporting everything and when they pull the rug out from under the market everything will collapse faster than anyone can imagine. A huge drop is coming. That's inevitable....Just wait until the property bubble in China collapses.
And yet the bull market lives on...
ASYS - This company looks like maybe it's done for, I bet the Aug 5th earnings suck a big high hard one.
ReplyDeleteBut, no short float?
boy that chart sure doesn't look like it's done for.
Deleteyour MM is doing well. i think they operate in a similar market to BCOV right? BCOV is absolutely on fire.
Have to admit, these charts DO look pretty good on all of these.
DeleteASYS - Volume is non-existent, seems typical for these "smaller" capital equipment mfrs. that "used to be". Now solar on silicon may provide a second wind but still I don't know how much market share silicon will have.
DeleteMaybe we can get a clue by doing some DD and watching the thin-film side....
URRE looks ready to rock.
ReplyDeleteFMD - Sure looks strong to me, anybody got an earnings crystal ball?
ReplyDeleteI'm just waiting for it to trade up to 4X book. That puts it around $7 to $8. Nothing magical about this # but it used to trade at 10X book and with the improvements in the securitization market for student loans (i.e., amount of $$ they have to put down has gone down from 22% to 13% in just 3 quarters) and with continued improvement into this market, this company should trade at a significant premium to book value.
DeleteConsider that if it goes to them only putting 5% down they earn 40-50% returns on invested capital. Not too shabby when you take into account that they have $1.30 a share in cash. 40% x $1.30 = $0.52 EPS. Back out the $0.30 or so they will lose on their traditional banking side in 2014 and you could see $0.20+ in EPS in 2014. This is all hypothetical, of course. They may choose to wait until they don't have to put anything down which means all of the fees they earn from a securitization deal are booked as income and they retain all of their cash. Either way, there is massive leverage in this business model as the securitization market continues to improve.
Selling now is selling yourself short in my opinion.
DeleteOf course, there are risks. If the economy craters then they will have to rely on their traditional banking business which is still losing money, albeit less and less each quarter. That side of their business generates lower returns and will break even around 2015 or so.
Also, if the govt decides to change bankruptcy laws on student loans back to the way they were in 2005 (i.e., debt can be discharged after showing X years of payment and other signs of trying to repay) the stock would drop until people realize they were making money back in 2005 under the old laws and it wouldn't really change things that much.
If you think the economy continues to gradually improve then the jobs market gradually improves and so too does the securitization market. The traditional banking side of their business will no longer be dragging EPS down $0.30 or so by 2015 so if the securitization mkt improves to the point I mentioned above then they could potentially do $0.40 to $0.60 EPS by 2015. Not sure what the odds are of this but I'd say they're decent. If that happens what do you think the market pays for it? 15 X Earnings?
Today's COT report showed that over the past week the Managed Money category has reduced its short position a little, with swap dealers taking the other side of the trade and becoming less long. The producer/merchant category still has its record small net short position, while the non-reportable category (small traders) still has a near record small net long position.
ReplyDeleteI was very tempted to close my GDX calls this morning, since the price stopped looking bullish over the past couple of days. Then I saw that GLD did a really nice fakeout this morning, briefly spiking below yesterday's low and then reversing. At the same time, GDX did not violate yesterday's low. The finish for the day was extremely bullish both for GDX and GLD -- just imagine how the weak hands felt after being stopped out this morning (those who placed stops at yesterday's low) and then seeing GLD shoot up at the close. So my updated exit strategy is to sell my GDX calls if GLD does violate yesterday's low.
I'm interested in the home builders now that everyone agrees that they're dead with higher rates. I'd keep an eye on these for at least a trade.
ReplyDeleteBarry Construction going public?
DeleteWith my margins! Ha !! :)))
DeleteMan, I never thought I'd be away from any real trading this long. Great job holding onto FMD. I was hoping for a nice little PB, but now I hope I don't get it for you. GMO gives me a freaking headache. Seriously.
FMD has been good. It's overbought so there's always that chance for a pullback. This year has been about regret...anyone that sells anything not in the mining sector has regretted it within a short period of time. I think it's most likely going to continue because people are still stuck in the 2000 to 2012 mind set of trading. It's been a long time since buying and holding for more than a few months has worked for traders.
Deleteholy volume in PEIX. something is up there...
ReplyDeleteFMD - Well, I intend on riding it out at least for a while longer and add if it does get hammered back to low $1 or under.
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'd move too if my town had a mayor like that. What a Wiener.
ReplyDeleteIs someone moving? There's just no telling what kind of demented acts politicians are capable of.
DeleteI'll bet if we look under the hood it won't be long before we all find a local politician a-hole doing demented acts of one kind or another. And I'm keeping my cynicism contained on this one because "I have a wide stance".
DeleteI'm pretty sure Weiner or someone of his ilk had a hand in the invention of twerking:
Deletehttp://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/07/11/twerking-to-classical-music_n_3579725.html
Alright you guys, time to wake up!
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=icnRMW6P9nc
Good links TOF.
ReplyDeleteI was golfing with my one buddy who is my anti-market tell. I had convinced him a couple of weeks ago to put some money into the market, but when he got to the bank, he got scared and went for one of those principal-protected investments where you give up a lot of the upside in return for guaranteeing your initial investment back in 5 years.
He was actually harassing me this week about how well the market was doing and that I should feel bad making money off people when the economy was doing so poorly. SO, from that perspective, we are nowhere near a top.
He usually buys in about 80% through a bull market, then thinks he is smart and averages up, then gets cocky and goes all in, just before things tank. He listens to CNBC and Bloomberg and thinks these guys will tell him when to buy. I feel bad for him and try to help, but, since he won't take any, I may as well use him to help with my market timing!
That's funny!
DeleteWOK-in-Take-Out?
ReplyDeleteThis is the first person quoted from an AP article about the declining financial security of white Americans...
ReplyDeleteHardship is particularly on the rise among whites, based on several measures. Pessimism among that racial group about their families' economic futures has climbed to the highest point since at least 1987. In the most recent AP-GfK poll, 63 percent of whites called the economy "poor."
"I think it's going to get worse," said Irene Salyers, 52, of Buchanan County, Va., a declining coal region in Appalachia. Married and divorced three times, Salyers now helps run a fruit and vegetable stand with her boyfriend, but it doesn't generate much income. They live mostly off government disability checks.
"If you do try to go apply for a job, they're not hiring people, and they're not paying that much to even go to work," she said. Children, she said, have "nothing better to do than to get on drugs."
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ReplyDelete