THATS why you risk only a little in these stocks huh? Glad I sold 1/3 at $5.5. Sold the rest at $3.05. I ended up a whopping 3% on this. Every time you kick yourself for selling a YRCW too early, you can point to instances like these.
SNDK - This one also looks headed for the 200SMA(maybe?), this company actually makes and sells memory products, I have one of them plugged into my USB port sitting right in front of me.
Nice trade...I've gotta say, though, I think Nat Gas looks horrible. I've actually been thinking short Nat Gas for a while now...really since June 6th.
Sold about 20% of life insurer NWLI and added to Dutch Insurer AEG (AEGON). With the nice move NWLI has had this year, AEG is cheaper in a lot of ways and has a better dividend. NWLI still my largest holding, but the more I looked into AEG, the more I liked it and this was an easy way to buy without getting too heavy into lifeco's in case something wacky does happen with interest rates.
Trades at about the same forward P/E as the large US insurers, but at about 40% of book value instead of 80% the US ones are. AEG really is a US insurer as Transamerica is 70% of the business and the are in the process of restructuring things to get the ROE's and earnings up which will drive this back to a more comparable P/B.
I'm showing a yield of 3.1% on yahoo but if I look at the last 3 payments it looks like paid out $0.255 last year which equates to a 3.3% yield. It looks like they pay one in April/May and then August which is what they did in the past before the crash (not sure why). The 1st payment this year amounted to about a 11.4% increase over last year. If you extrapolate that for the full year you get a dividend yield of 3.7%. Pre crash they were paying $0.60 to $0.80 which would amount to a 8 to 11% yield on today's prices. Any indication if they will be able to return to those levels?
European company, so the dividends are in Euros and vary on the exchange rate.
Plus European companies are a bit different on dividends in that they usually pay twice per year, with the first one kind of an estimate on how things are going, then the second a final one based on full year results. Many don't follow the American way of trying to always increase or at least not reduce the dividend, and pay based on results - some even say, pay 30% of the year's profits out in dividends every year, so it can vary a lot.
AEG is a bit more American style in that it wants to increase it's dividends and has done so pretty consistently in the past and I would expect them to continue to do so as earnings improve. Assuming they can their profits up, I think a $0.60 or $0.80 dividend would be doable in the next few years.
Random thoughts: "The market failed to follow through. This is a bummer because it keeps the indices relatively unchanged for the last 2 weeks.
Most sectors were soft.
We can't completely forget that we are in the middle of summer. And, although the market can trend in any month, the doldrums often occur during summer.
As usual, follow through would be key. Ideally, I'd like to see this market break out to new highs, not look back for a while, and then have an orderly pullback. Rinse and repeat would be just fine with me. That's my wish.
Good call on the uranium, has Japan said more about restarting their reactors? Last I heard, this subject was proposed in a political campaign, not sure what the timeline might be.
What really amazes me is, all these companies earnings really fell off a cliff?
I'm not sure how that could've happened, a dip yes but my lifestyle didn't change, nor did that of most people I know. I still have to purchase insurance to drive my car despite that I drive lass than 3k miles/year still have to have it.
"I might consider buying some if it pulls back to recent lows."
Hmm, if only I had a dime for every time I said that. Although, in the case of REDF until now it has never failed to pull back. Seems like at some point, the likelihood of the customary REDF pullback becomes less.
My best guess is we get a nasty sharp 1 week pullback possibly to 1,550 fairly soon, then flatline for a couple of weeks and then grind higher for the rest of the year and finish at the high of the year…
i'm prepared for it but i still see a big move higher than people are expecting at some point over the next 6 months. we're at 1,685 and i can't find many people calling for 1,800 or higher.
i'm thinking Saut might be right on the money and heading into the supposed targeted tapering period of Sept / Oct would coincide perfectly with a sharp 7 to 10% pullback that is over within a week.
the market has just broken out to a new all time high over the past few months with europe still struggling and with china and brazil going through big slowdowns. with europe coming out of a recession, the housing market rebounding, and with china/brazil still in the midst of what look like really good long term growth markets its hard to see the S&P heading into a big fall anytime soon. i think the only two things that could cause a big hiccup is oil going above 115 or so or bonds ripping from here. if the change of pace is still slow and steady the market should be able to absorb these moves. my guess is we get one more big move up to perhaps as high as 1,800 and then bonds and oil hit the 3%+ and 115+ areas and then we go through a 12 to 24 month grind lower.
A couple of thoughts. 1. DJIA is up, Q's are at multi-year highs. 2. Small caps (mine anyway) are getting whacked 4-14% today. Not the end of the world, but it is worth noting the big caps are holding while small caps are correcting some.
3. This could mean one of two things. A. We're in for a correction and the big kids are heading for big caps. B. The small caps have had a big run up and are consolidating.
4. Bonds were down today and then reversed some. I took some profits on TBT before it reversed. 5. I'm keeping an eye on the transports.
Uraniums are down today. URRE down 14%. HIMX (tech)is down 7%.
I have a lot of smaller issues on my watchlist which is seeing a lot of red over the last couple of days. OTOH, IWM is up half a point. Maybe it's that rolling correction/rotation kind of deal.
FMD is a funny stock. It honors prior highs after breakouts almost to a T. Low today was $1.65...prior high on this run was $1.65. it has done this several times over the past few months vs old highs.
Pretty upbeat morning with good news from China, Europe and the U.S. on the manufacturing/outlook/economy side.
Seems like the economy is starting to drive job gains, which will be good for the public.
This should drive more money into the market as people have more to invest and feel more comfortable doing so as they see things as being better, even though from a stock perspective, they were much better 10,000 points ago.
I guess the key will be figuring out what parts of the economy and which stocks will benefit from this improved consumer.
Santoli had a good writeup warning about valuations longer term and pointing to larger stocks as being more undervalued:
Wowza!
ReplyDeleteAll right buddy. With ya @ 16.05.
DeleteOff @ 16.20. Thanks!!
Delete16.02
ReplyDeleteoff 16.26
DeleteNatty takes one in the posterior, so is uranium back on Japan's dinner table?
ReplyDeleteUNG - / URG +
DeleteDRAM ouch
ReplyDeleteYeah, that left a mark....
DeleteAre we taking a shot here? Looks like .45/share cash left? Or was that before.
DeleteSpread is wide enough to drive 2nd's Carola through it.
DeleteReading...looking for additional financing. DILUTION.
DeleteJust caught it dropping lke a rock. Sell or hold here? dilution could leave a bigger dent yet. Are you guys sellers here?
DeleteLoss of 4.6M compared to comparable quarter last year which was due to sales of patents.
DeleteNot a good situation if you are selling your patents to make the #'s, then lose 4.6M YOY.
Then again, a 40% haircut may be overdone.
Yeah, I saw the patent thing too. Wish I knew more about the business.
DeleteDo we know what happened on 5/9?
DeleteTHATS why you risk only a little in these stocks huh? Glad I sold 1/3 at $5.5. Sold the rest at $3.05. I ended up a whopping 3% on this. Every time you kick yourself for selling a YRCW too early, you can point to instances like these.
Deletesold a 5th at 5.30, gonna take a 1% overall hit on this, but still sucks
DeleteYeah we got greedy. Had a 50%+ gain and let it slip away.
Deletealthough I have to say I sold out of STS on the panic after earnings only to watch it go up almost 100% in 5 months.
DeleteBeeline for the 200SMA
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=dram&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Wow good point. This might actually be a great buying opp instead of selling. Either way, I'm out.
DeleteSNDK - This one also looks headed for the 200SMA(maybe?), this company actually makes and sells memory products, I have one of them plugged into my USB port sitting right in front of me.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ> Out. Up a few Franklins is all. Wish I'd been home and able to trade.
ReplyDeleteNice trade...I've gotta say, though, I think Nat Gas looks horrible. I've actually been thinking short Nat Gas for a while now...really since June 6th.
DeleteMelt up. I kinda think it's coming soon. 1,750
ReplyDeleteAckman's finished, IMO.
ReplyDeleteNo way out, except to cover. Which may drive HLF to three figures.
DeleteI'm pretty sure he was playing this short with options, so he can just let them expire.
DeleteHere's a situation of when profits should have been taken when he had them.
Sold about 20% of life insurer NWLI and added to Dutch Insurer AEG (AEGON). With the nice move NWLI has had this year, AEG is cheaper in a lot of ways and has a better dividend. NWLI still my largest holding, but the more I looked into AEG, the more I liked it and this was an easy way to buy without getting too heavy into lifeco's in case something wacky does happen with interest rates.
ReplyDeleteTrades at about the same forward P/E as the large US insurers, but at about 40% of book value instead of 80% the US ones are. AEG really is a US insurer as Transamerica is 70% of the business and the are in the process of restructuring things to get the ROE's and earnings up which will drive this back to a more comparable P/B.
Agreed, I should join you in this one.
DeleteI'm showing a yield of 3.1% on yahoo but if I look at the last 3 payments it looks like paid out $0.255 last year which equates to a 3.3% yield. It looks like they pay one in April/May and then August which is what they did in the past before the crash (not sure why). The 1st payment this year amounted to about a 11.4% increase over last year. If you extrapolate that for the full year you get a dividend yield of 3.7%. Pre crash they were paying $0.60 to $0.80 which would amount to a 8 to 11% yield on today's prices. Any indication if they will be able to return to those levels?
DeleteEuropean company, so the dividends are in Euros and vary on the exchange rate.
DeletePlus European companies are a bit different on dividends in that they usually pay twice per year, with the first one kind of an estimate on how things are going, then the second a final one based on full year results. Many don't follow the American way of trying to always increase or at least not reduce the dividend, and pay based on results - some even say, pay 30% of the year's profits out in dividends every year, so it can vary a lot.
AEG is a bit more American style in that it wants to increase it's dividends and has done so pretty consistently in the past and I would expect them to continue to do so as earnings improve. Assuming they can their profits up, I think a $0.60 or $0.80 dividend would be doable in the next few years.
Random thoughts:
ReplyDelete"The market failed to follow through. This is a bummer because it keeps the indices relatively unchanged for the last 2 weeks.
Most sectors were soft.
We can't completely forget that we are in the middle of summer. And, although the market can trend in any month, the doldrums often occur during summer.
As usual, follow through would be key. Ideally, I'd like to see this market break out to new highs, not look back for a while, and then have an orderly pullback. Rinse and repeat would be just fine with me. That's my wish.
So what do we do while waiting for our trend ship to come in? Although it's cliché, I think we're in a stock pickers market. As you know, I've been bullish on the metals, especially Uranium and the Rare Earths. With that said, Uranium blasted higher yesterday. You're welcome! You didn't have to wait a whole year to think me on that one! (http://www.tradingcommentary.com/you-will-thank-me-a-year-from-now-write-that-down/) No, I'm not always this right. If I were, you'd never see my fat ass again but I digress. Seriously, if you did miss the move, I still think it is possible that it is just getting started, so look to play pullbacks along the way. Oil the commodity also looks like it has potential. I'm seeing a few good looking setups in the stocks here too. Although they were soft on Monday, I still think Gold & Silver stocks have potential. Again, I think we've entered into a stock pickers market. Therefore, again, 1) Pick the best stocks, 2) Wait for entries, 3) Use protective stops just in case your wrong and trail/scale if you are right.
Futures are firm pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!"
Good call on the uranium, has Japan said more about restarting their reactors? Last I heard, this subject was proposed in a political campaign, not sure what the timeline might be.
DeleteDram popped back 10%. Set my stop at the 200 day.
ReplyDeleteIf they really are shipping quantity of product and can manage to turn a profit, $9M is a ridiculous market cap.
DeleteAMD's Flash technology was at one time a joint venture with Toshiba and one of the better performing ones, not sure of what's going on anymore though.
Frankly, the damage is done on me. I set the stop at the 200 day and will let it ride a bit.
DeleteYeah, quite a few of the device integration engineers went to BRCM
DeleteOh, speaking of BRCM, Oops!
What really amazes me is, all these companies earnings really fell off a cliff?
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how that could've happened, a dip yes but my lifestyle didn't change, nor did that of most people I know. I still have to purchase insurance to drive my car despite that I drive lass than 3k miles/year still have to have it.
You guys know what I'm thinking.
ReplyDeleteBeer time?
DeleteClose. Gun time.
Deletegood combo!
DeleteDangerous combo!
DeleteDetrick finally starting to read our posts here about at DT on sentiment:
ReplyDeletehttp://schaefferstradingfloor.com/why-we-wont-crash/id=5519
REDF results were actually encouraging. They continue to improve gradually. I might consider buying some if it pulls back to recent lows.
ReplyDelete"I might consider buying some if it pulls back to recent lows."
DeleteHmm, if only I had a dime for every time I said that. Although, in the case of REDF until now it has never failed to pull back. Seems like at some point, the likelihood of the customary REDF pullback becomes less.
Still holding a 1000 shares, so some skin in the game.
DeleteBRCM - Have you guys seen this one yet? Could be an island reversal for the gap fill?
ReplyDeleteMy best guess is we get a nasty sharp 1 week pullback possibly to 1,550 fairly soon, then flatline for a couple of weeks and then grind higher for the rest of the year and finish at the high of the year…
ReplyDeleteTime will tell ...
Deletehttp://www.thewavetrading.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/SPX-W-TZZ.png
i'm prepared for it but i still see a big move higher than people are expecting at some point over the next 6 months. we're at 1,685 and i can't find many people calling for 1,800 or higher.
Deletei'm thinking Saut might be right on the money and heading into the supposed targeted tapering period of Sept / Oct would coincide perfectly with a sharp 7 to 10% pullback that is over within a week.
here's one ...
Deletehttp://charts.61point8.com/20130722-spx-forecast.png
the market has just broken out to a new all time high over the past few months with europe still struggling and with china and brazil going through big slowdowns. with europe coming out of a recession, the housing market rebounding, and with china/brazil still in the midst of what look like really good long term growth markets its hard to see the S&P heading into a big fall anytime soon. i think the only two things that could cause a big hiccup is oil going above 115 or so or bonds ripping from here. if the change of pace is still slow and steady the market should be able to absorb these moves. my guess is we get one more big move up to perhaps as high as 1,800 and then bonds and oil hit the 3%+ and 115+ areas and then we go through a 12 to 24 month grind lower.
DeleteCAKE - Okay, the gap down is filled now....
ReplyDeleteLooks like Weiner is going to stick it out.
ReplyDeleteha.
Deleteholy shit did you see NQ?
VNET looks ready to bust higher
DeleteHe's such a tool....
DeleteNQ - Holy crap, Batman! I can't believe these Chinese stock P/E's, I'm just so used to seeing them trade at single digits.
DeleteFMD - Okay, I'm ready for the next wave up..... Let's get it going.
ReplyDeleteNQ- No, did we ever follow that one?
ReplyDeleteNew NES PT's... 4.00 and 5.00. 5.00 would obviously be worth it.
ReplyDeleteAnd FB does regain 38
ReplyDeleteOh of course it did, because it's the best thing that ever could have happened to/on/for the internet......
DeleteWe started advertising on Facebook recently and have found pretty decent returns on it. I'm not entirely sure it's worth it yet.
DeleteMe too, so unrealistic. Makes me think the skepticism is conspiratorial.
ReplyDeleteA couple of thoughts.
ReplyDelete1. DJIA is up, Q's are at multi-year highs.
2. Small caps (mine anyway) are getting whacked 4-14% today. Not the end of the world, but it is worth noting the big caps are holding while small caps are correcting some.
3. This could mean one of two things. A. We're in for a correction and the big kids are heading for big caps. B. The small caps have had a big run up and are consolidating.
4. Bonds were down today and then reversed some. I took some profits on TBT before it reversed.
5. I'm keeping an eye on the transports.
which small caps? i can't find any on my list down more than a couple percent.
ReplyDelete...yet that is...
ReplyDeleteUraniums are down today. URRE down 14%.
ReplyDeleteHIMX (tech)is down 7%.
I have a lot of smaller issues on my watchlist which is seeing a lot of red over the last couple of days. OTOH, IWM is up half a point. Maybe it's that rolling correction/rotation kind of deal.
"Student loan bill could spell TROUBLE!"
ReplyDeleteAh, just in the nick of time Businessweek strategically jumps into the fray:
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/editorial/xbizwk/SIG=13kp0u9oh/*http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-07-31/student-loan-deal-in-congress-may-spell-trouble-for-alumni-lenders?campaign_id=yhoo
"Uraniums are down today."
ReplyDeleteWell that figures, doesn't it? I guess Japan hasn't decided to restart their reactors after all?
Plutonium - Wonder if I could get an NRC permit under the pretense of "Religious Purposes"?
ReplyDeleteHmmm.....VXX just hit a 52 wk low.
ReplyDeleteBanks looking strong despite some profit taking in market.
ReplyDeleteFMD is a funny stock. It honors prior highs after breakouts almost to a T. Low today was $1.65...prior high on this run was $1.65. it has done this several times over the past few months vs old highs.
ReplyDeleteYeah, that's a good observation. I was just gonna look at that but you just saved me the trouble.
DeleteSo, my pessimistic voice is telling me tomorrow it goes lower while my Honey Badger side just shrugs and says "So what!".... he, he...
Marc Lasry from Avenue Capital just took a 5% stake in YRCW
ReplyDeletebased on fully diluted shares of 23 million.
Deleteha that was quick. it was a typo. he only took a 130k position, not 1.3 million. stock is down over $1 after hours.
DeleteI count that as a convenient oversight.
DeleteDropped 6% eh..... WTF, nice......
ReplyDeleteModerate was changed to modest, forward or backward?
ReplyDeleteSoros bought a 9% position in HLF
ReplyDeleteLOL, "•Credit Suisse Sees YRC Worldwide Stock Falling to $724/7 Wall St.(Mon, Jul 29)"
ReplyDeleteWeiner, Oscar Mayor?
NES- Pretty much has to test it's all time low, right?
ReplyDeleteWell, didn't the old man bolt already? That doesn't give me the warm fuzzies but hey, I'm the wrong guy to ask about who's running the show.
DeleteHeckmann is still the Chairman. Weee...
DeleteHXM - +30% today, how does one ever know what surprises tomorrow will deliver?
ReplyDeleteFigures...I just checked. Heckmann is the Chair on that sucker.
DeleteNatty - You guys still long this thing? I'm tempted, although I should know better.
ReplyDeleteNO. But you know that.
DeletePretty upbeat morning with good news from China, Europe and the U.S. on the manufacturing/outlook/economy side.
ReplyDeleteSeems like the economy is starting to drive job gains, which will be good for the public.
This should drive more money into the market as people have more to invest and feel more comfortable doing so as they see things as being better, even though from a stock perspective, they were much better 10,000 points ago.
I guess the key will be figuring out what parts of the economy and which stocks will benefit from this improved consumer.
Santoli had a good writeup warning about valuations longer term and pointing to larger stocks as being more undervalued:
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/michael-santoli/mom-pop-may-ready-jump-stocks-signs-flash-162025867.html
new post
ReplyDelete