Friday, August 16, 2013
08/16/13 The Hardest Thing
The hardest thing to do? Wait. Every time I jump the gun (and I do it a lot) I end up underneath the train. The point, of course, is to board the train. The most recent examples would be buying Emerging Markets (RYWVX) and miners (RYPMX) a day or two early and getting shaken down just prior to liftoff.
It's difficult enough as it is to win. Patience is the strongest edge we have. I don't why I haven't learned to use it more effectively.
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A double-edged Wilkinson? ;)
ReplyDeleteI actually used a Wilkinson once back in the Seventies!
DeleteNow that takes some patience!
DeleteAnother NFLX recommendation: Unfinished Sky.
ReplyDeleteI agree. When you see a stock down on bad news, sometimes it pays to jump in like TOF did on CSCO a couple days ago, but I'd say 90% of the time, if you wait and are patient, you will get the chance to buy the stock at a cheaper price before the next quarter's earnings, with lower probability of loss.
ReplyDeleteTough to do, but being patient is definitely an individual investor advantage.
2nd - what are you being patient on?
ReplyDelete(a) In the longer-term, I think the market corrects significantly.
Delete(b) Each day, opportunities present themselves (as EEM, GDX, and UNG did recently). Some of these opportunities present themselves over and over again. There's no way (and no need) to predict ahead of time when they might occur.
I agree with you on both fronts. The longer term charts for the Russell look like a blowoff top is forming. the arc of the rise is getting steeper and steeper. it's basically the opposite of a crash...the arc gets steeper and steeper until it flushes out.
DeleteI'd recommend opening a TD Ameritrade account and using their ThinkorSwim platform. On the charts you can add studies to the charts and there is one in particular that is called RSI_EMA. It is a blend of relative strength and moving averages. It isnt foolproof (nothing is) but you can look at it on a 1 minute, 5m, 10m, 15m, 30m, 1hr, 1 day, 1 week and 1 month time frame to give you a sense of whether or not something is a buy or a sell. It's a great tool to use if you're daytrading or swing trading or buying and holding individual stocks / commodities. I've relied on it heavily to determine buy and sell points.
ORBC - One that escaped.
ReplyDeleteTITN - Maybe this thing has finally bottomed?
ReplyDeleteRalph Acampora CMT
ReplyDeleteOn CNBC "Closing Bell" I said that this decline will be much deeper; I believe the DJIA could drop to 13,333 equaling a 15% sell-off.
That pretty much wipes out YTD.
DeleteI'm all in cash and waiting. If we get an up day or a gap higher on Monday/Tues I will be looking to buy TZA toward the top of yesterday's prices.
DeleteIt's shorting season fellas. I would get shorting on your mind for the next year. Rallies will be made to be sold. I don't expect a big pullback but 15 to 25% isn't impossible.
ReplyDeleteAnd just when Bambi is becoming a teenager.
DeleteSID
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DeleteWasn't Bambi stepped on by a large creature at a young age?
DeleteSpeaking of that, I just woke up from an evening snooze and experienced the most wicked case of DT cenosilicaphobia I have experienced in years. Not just a normal half full or half empty kind of feeling, ya know.....
ReplyDeleteCool trailer...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.moneyfornothingthemovie.org/
I don't know about the broad market, but I still think there are good stocks to own:
ReplyDelete1. Life Insurers - even though they have had a great move, still cheap on an absolute and relative basis and earnings should improve with rates
2. Consumer discretionary - autos, hotels, cruises, etc. are all well positioned for growth and, while not cheap, still not expensive
3. Europe - seems to be improving and stocks are cheap on trough earnings
4. Infrastructure - many infrastructure type stocks are quite inexpensive and have long term demand behind them
5. Energy - oil still holding high and stocks seem to be starting to move - maybe this is the time
Plus, there are many small, unique situations out there that are still good to buy.
I'm taking my cautious cue from several voodoo things:
Delete(1) Leading momo stocks have either given up all recent gains or completely collapsed.
(2) Good news has become bad news of late.
(3) Head and shoulders patterns are actually working nowadays. I've noticed this on several charts.
The 2nd point is pretty simple. I used the opposite of this as my tell back in 2009 that we were in a new bull market. We had several days of negative news throughout March and April and yet the market just wasn't pulling in.
Good news has been sold so far.
DeleteThere is definitely more pressure on stock the last few weeks than there generally has been this year. But on the other side, I seem to be seeing a lot of the usual fall-off in sentiment and boldness from the bears that comes out every pullback this year, so perhaps this is just another of the short ones and away we go again.
DeleteFundamentally, it is hard to see why we should get a major pullback here (but it is the stuff you don't see which drives the larger pullbacks). Valuations have gotten ahead in quite a few places, but valuation doesn't usually drive big market pullbacks and usually just drives market rotation.
But, this also is the time of year for big corrections, so would not be a surprise to anyone if we did get one.
http://goldstocksforex.com/2013/08/18/sp-500-breaks-support/
ReplyDeleteRussell 2000 (futures) is attempting to complete a H&S top
ReplyDeleteDecisive close below 1035 is required. There is a history for small H&S tops at the termination of major trends. A close back above 1045 would completely negate this pattern. Remember, a possible top is not a top until it is completed. Intraday penetrations of important chart points no longer mean anything.
http://peterlbrandt.com/chart-of-the-day-aug-15-2013-russell-index/
He nailed it.
DeleteIt really is interesting how quickly people turn bearish in this market:
ReplyDeletehttp://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/8/19/bearish-sentiment-hits-highest-level-in-survey-history.html
http://tickersense.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c924353ef0154355bce5a970c-popup
So many people looking at sentiment these days, makes me wonder if its usefulness is going away, but these indicators show we should be more at a significant low than just a few percent off an all-time high.
BB - I can't quite figure out that bespoke chart below. If I'm correct, people were bearish in April 2012 (correct) and bullish in Nov 2012 (also correct), no?
DeleteI think we get a bounce in the early part of this week. The strength of it is a major tell.
I don't know if it's sentiment. Look at bonds. Look at the moving averages. Look at the gaps down and weakness in the former high fliers. Look at the double tops. I think they have a legitimate reason for being cautious. Especially because we are off of all time highs (except the Q's).
DeleteThat is a stronger reason for caution. Moving averages converging and threatening to cross over (bowtie) at all time highs is a powerful signal.
It's not a reason to short (yet) but if we retrace and then resume a down move I will be going short, with stops at the previous highs.
ARR - In at 4.04, is that div really $0.85?
ReplyDeleteLong starter TZA at $26.79. Please give me some more bounce...
ReplyDeleteWent full position at $26.83. Will cut bait at $26.3
DeleteShort SPY at $166.1
ReplyDeleteFMD - I can't even get $1 for this thing anymore! :(
ReplyDeleteLOL, I meant! Why didn't I off this pig day before earnings? Oh well.....
Deleteyou and me both CP. we all got way too greedy on this...live and learn.
DeleteOut, got 0.91 for it and good riddance....
DeleteFriggin sucks man. I went from having the best year I've ever had in the market to having a good year in the span of 18 hours. For me the mistake of not holding on to things long enough (SNE, OWW, YRCW, CECO) made me too complacent. I've always sold too early and that's how I've avoided big hits. Ignored my own personal rules on this one.
DeleteIt's time to move on though. We can't make money wallowing in our own sorry.
Yep, move on and learn to take gains. That's the reality.
Deletewallowing in our sorrow that is!
DeleteConnect the dots downward on SPX highs over the past 3 days. It hit it exactly this morning at 1,659 then pulled back. I'm using a little over the highs from Friday (1,663) as a mental stop.
ReplyDeleteI'm choosing TZA (short small caps) because the small caps have significantly outperformed...and if you look at the longer term chart it looks like a parabolic move higher. Additionally, valuations are very stretched with small caps (e.g. forward P/E now stands at almost 19 for the Russell 2000 vs 15 for the S&P 500) and lots of small cap momo stocks have reversed hard of late.
Deletehttp://stocktwits.com/message/15264338
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteThe Bespoke survey seems news oriented and may have more sophisticated investors. They went extremely bullish after the fiscal cliff was averted, which was correct, but they were bearish pretty much the entire first months of 2013 as many were looking for a correction then.
I figure it portends a big move one way or another now with big sentiment either going to be very right or very wrong..
BB - I'm just looking at the extremes on that chart and they seem to have nailed turning points over the past 16 months. I honestly don't put much weight in any of those. I do like the Univ of Michigan sentiment survey because it tells me what the public is feeling. This dropped quite a bit in the past month which from a contrarian standpoint is positive, but I worry if the peak we got up to 85 or so is the best we're doing to get. That big of a drop is a fairly bad sign in the face of what was all time highs in the market. You would think that would continue to trend higher. Makes me think the move up in interest rates had a bigger impact on peoples' psyches than we are led on to believe.
DeleteCall me whatever, naive or something, but isn't the normal correlation of market to rates such that higher rates bring the market down?
DeleteI'm wondering if this is the reason the market reached new highs as rates made record lows?
SRS - Up a scant 44% off the bottom.....
ReplyDeleteSID/GGB - WTF, did the world just order hundreds of tons of steel or WTF is going on?
ReplyDeleteCould be just a trading phenomenon, buying an oversold market but sheesh if that's the case then it could reverse any minute.
ARR - Crap, still nobody can find the exit fast enough....
ReplyDeletetake a look at all yield assets. getting annihilated. not good. look at the corporate bond index...there's no way to say recent action is good:
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BUSC:IND/chart
perhaps one reason why bonds can't rally despite a recent pullback is because problems in china are indeed worse than the public thinks? if they are truly in a liquidity crunch then what's the most liquid asset they can cash in?
DeleteYeah, that could be. Seems like a second wave down is kicking in.
DeleteI guess this is what happens when governments muddle with markets, the computer algos can sniff out the initial stages of a trend in any corner of the market far and wide and then clean up by creating their own self-fulfilling prophecy.
Oakland - Has alQaeda been hired to provide neighborhood security?
ReplyDeleteAPA - Thar' she blows.....
ReplyDeleteURA - Seems to be at an important support level.
ReplyDeleteURG - This one took a dive as well, didn't it?
Maybe Landry single handedly pumped life into the sector?
Re yield assets:
ReplyDeleteI think that the last couple of years, we've really just had a mo-mo market in yield stocks with too much money chasing high-yielders and bonds because it worked so well.
So now, rates are coming back up, so prices on all bonds and yield valued assets are coming down. But this is not a sign of bad news, but really an improving economy. I've looked at some of the pipelines for example and they really are quite expensive on an absolute basis and relative to their normal valuations - take a look at:
http://financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html?t=TRP®ion=USA&culture=en-US
There are risks now, of course, that things could go wrong, but the ideal scenario is money continues to come out of bonds/overvalued yield stocks and goes into economic sensitive stocks like energy/materials/industrials/home builders instead. Also, would be good to see China demand continue to grow and exports increase there.
To see this easily, look at the 10 year chart of TLT. We are still above the normal price range (ie. rates are still too low). We need to see another 10% downside in bond prices before rates become a concern.
Deletehow do you think the market would react to a 10% move down? that would correspond to a move to around 4% or so in the 10 year which would probably be 6% on the 30 year mortgage right? i think it would probably take a long time to digest.
DeleteAnd I am not disagreeing that we could correct now - it does make a lot of sense, but my read is that this is another dip to be bought and the markets are higher next year.
ReplyDeleteNot sure about higher but I think we trade sideways for a while...actually a sideways down market...pulling back maybe 15 to 25% over that time period. There will be massive rallies along the way but my i think they should be used to get short/sell. A 60% move since October 2011 (22 months) is massive and based on what I've seen it is almost always followed by a sideways to down trending market over a period of 1 to 2 years.
DeleteIn thinking about that, you could very well be right.
DeleteI think the issues with the U.S. market are:
1. Pretty yield oriented, so downward pressure due to rates
2. Big move up, as you describe
3. stocks more expensive that pretty much every other country
Probably the best thing to do now is start looking for stocks outside the U.S. For example, the UK market has only gone up about half the US since the October, 2011 lows. If Europe really is getting better, stocks over there would be better as expectation as so low.
The thing I will be doing is just looking for cheap stocks. I'd made money long stocks each year in the 2000 - 2002 bear market by avoiding tech and buying out of favour stocks. Perhaps the next 2 years should be spend avoiding the US Market and investing in cheaper markets? Unless we get a 2008 style crash, this seems to work, even in down markets.
Closed out all shorts for a 1.5% or so gain. Flipped to longs (TNA). I'm just playing a hopeful bounce going into the Fed meeting. Short term the markets are due for a mini bounce probably to $166.4 (SPY). Just day trading right now...but I think the market goes a good deal lower.
ReplyDeletemeant Fed minutes
DeleteJust going back through some notes and the "standard" strategy for the markets when rates are rising and liquidity decreases is to move out of stocks and into hard assets / commodities. This is usually where you get the last big lift before things end.
ReplyDeleteThere is a reasonable chance this is occurring now as gold and copper have stopped going down and oil is holding in strong. The risk this time is that we had that overinvestment in commodities due to the Commodity Supercycle, so hard to know how it will play out this time around.
This type of transition generally is a good time to move out of U.S. markets as they are underrepresented in a lot of these areas and move into Canada and some of the emerging markets.
I still think this really is more of a mid-cycle correction as rates normalize instead of an end-of-cycle increase, so US markets could do well again after this is completed.
Really, who knows? Like I said before, buying cheap stocks regardless of the market usually works, so I will continue that for now.
I actually realized that if small caps are underperforming then it's best to buy large caps if i'm going to day trade a potential bounce. Swapped TNA for SPXL. Will be looking to re-enter TZA though.
ReplyDeletestopped out and swapped out to TZA again...
Delete3.15% or so on 10yr isn't unthinkable to me, thanks for that historical account.
ReplyDeleteYeah. The 10-year was actually mostly between 3.50% and 3.75% from the summer of 2009 to until spring, 2011, other than when crisises drove them down, so that may the normal real rate.
DeleteI think there's a 25% chance IWM pulls back similarly to XOM...breakout then collapse.
ReplyDeleteTVIX - Surprised this one hasn't jumped 10% today.
ReplyDeleteHolding TZA overnight. The 50DMA was no support for the S&P. I think we have a date with the 200 DMA coming up soon.
ReplyDeleteShipper's looking to roll.
ReplyDeleteTVIX bought some today and some GLL in case everything wants to go down.
Seems like the selling got intense today. Will be interesting to see how tomorrow is. Best would be a big down open to flush out remaining sellers followed by a strong close.
ReplyDeleteI like to focus a lot on sentiment...it will be interesting to see how people react to this pullback. My suspicion is people will say the following:
Delete"interest rates are up big but let's keep it in the context of where they are"
"interest rates rising is usually a good thing for the markets"
"X is down Y% but let's keep it in context of how far up they are this year so it's not like they're doing THAT bad"
"shorter term with the Jackson Hole meeting and with Fed Minutes it's hard to be bearish here. plus, stocks are more oversold now than they have been at any point this year"
If this is the consensus take then I'm expecting at best a sideways move for a few days and then a big move lower.
the move in QQQ is very bearish in my opinion. it tried to break up into the gap down and was rejected pretty harshly. I think we have a good setup for a short there.
Delete"interest rates rising is usually a good thing for the markets"
DeleteIt is? Is that really true? Plenty of folks have been making the opposite case and so far they seem to be correct.
I like your take TOF.
DeleteInvariably we bounce. What happens next is key.
I suspect the bounce will be Fed minutes driven and then the news is sold.
FMD - Wasn't the only bull trap.
ReplyDeleteIs it possible that democratic supporters are anti-wall street and the concern is over changing of the guards at the FED?
ReplyDeleteThe Muslim brotherhood seems to be on the short end of the stick over there in Egypt, isn't the US being a little too supportive towards them considering our history?
ReplyDeleteSeems sorta like a policy reversal.
ZSL - What do you guys think????
ReplyDeleteRyan Detrick has been using the strong bull of 1954 - 1955 as a guide this year:
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/message/15287158
"Interesting, '54 and '95 bottomed in late Aug/early Sept. Some more weakness here could follow suit."
Remind me. ..were we right calling the last correction?
ReplyDeleteWho said the what now?
DeleteBB - Keep this in mind:
ReplyDeleteSmall caps are up 77% from the October 2011 lows and 214% (3.1X) from the March 2009 lows. Quite a long way to go up. A drop of 25% would still leave it waaaaay above lows. It would bring it down to around the peak from 2007 and 2011. Not completely unexpected after a parabolic move higher the past 9 and 22 months.
Day Tripper
ReplyDelete14.45 YRCW
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5N37Ngrco-k
Deletewicker warehouse at $20.7. Any takers?
ReplyDeleteSNE
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1z2aTcumlY
HD...That's not good.
ReplyDeleteNope.
DeleteRetail seems to be a crappy place to be these days. I wonder if it is because of Amazon taking market share and companies selling more over the web, higher taxes affecting purchasing power, or consumers getting more cautious?
TJX still up nicely, but they are a low-price seller of goods.
No brainer. HD is tied to home improvement and anything 'home' is getting killed by interest rates right now, or at least the fear of interest rates.
DeleteWE all know interest rates are historically very low but we are using logic.
Markets trade on something other than logic. Otherwise everyone could do it.
Random thoughts:
ReplyDeleteMonday was more of the same:
The Ps hit marginal new lows. They are on the verge of forming a Bowtie down from all-time highs. These can be very powerful sell signals. And, they obviously are still below their recent range. See recent columns (use the calendar on my website) for more on this. They also closed below their well-watched 50-day moving average. There's nothing magical about this moving average but it can help to keep you on the right side of the market-especially when combined with patterns such as "Daylight."
The Quack also hit marginal new lows. It is right at short-term support. Obviously, it is important for this support to hold.
Once again, while flipping through thousands of charts, I thought that the broader based market looked pretty weak. Of course, I then plotted the Rusty and saw that it ended down over 1%.
And once again, I have been concerned about the high fliers rolling over, worried that it could become a case of, "the bigger they are, the harder they fall." With previously strong areas such as Biotech, Retail, Health Services continuing to slide, it appears that this is playing out. We could see shorting opportunities in these types of stocks soon.
And yet again, Bonds banged out new lows. Stop me if you heard this before: it's not the absolute rate that bothers me, it is the delta in rates. They need to stabilize-and soon. The spike in interest rates is really taking its toll on areas like Real Estate.
About the only area that looks like it has potential at this juncture is the recently mentioned Metals and Mining. They too were a little soft on Monday. Wait for new setups here before looking to take new action.
It was a bit of deja vu all over again.
So what do we do? Well, in keeping with today's "cut and paste" theme: I just call 'em as I see 'em. And right now, I don't like what I see. Now's not the time to rush out and buy unless the area(s) appears to be bottoming like the aforementioned M&Ms. You certainly don't want to try to catch the falling knife on the previous high fliers with the hopes that they will resume their glory. They could actually provide shorting opportunities soon. So get ready to get ready here.
Futures are flat to firm pre-market.
Best of luck with your trading today!
Couple RT's on NUGT. Reverse 10-1 split. Going ape$hit.
ReplyDeleteHD example: Look at ITB. Draw your arrow.
DeleteIsn't 10:1 1000%? It's hoovering at yust 3 digits? Gimme a cup o' joe.....
DeleteIt was $8.77 in the service last night and this AM I woke up to $87.70.
DeleteI guess it's time to take the gains, don't look a gifthorse in the mouse! :)
DeleteTastes great, less filling!
ReplyDelete"Salt for LifeTM Sea Salt Blend, with 70% Less Sodium Than Regular Salt, Now Available for Consumers to Create Great-Tasting, Lower-Sodium Meals"
BBY- Wow, that's tripled off the lows.
ReplyDeleteYep, he can get the job but can he do the job?
DeleteBACML - "Dick's Sporting Goods: F2Q miss likely to create a particularly good entry point"
ReplyDelete"UK Fixed Telecoms: Regulator error in your favour: Collect £170m."
ReplyDeleteSo, we saw some panic selling overnight in a lot of overseas markets and now we are starting the bounce here in North America. If this continues for a couple of days, I'd say it was yet another 2013 shallow buying opportunity.
ReplyDeleteIndices will have to get through the overhead first. Anything can happen.
DeleteAdded TZA at $26.55.
ReplyDeleteAdded more at $26.42
DeleteGASS opened down about -44% today now only -10%. Is it safe yet?
ReplyDeletePACB, who found that one and hope they are still in it.
Shippers yesterday's roll, today's steam. It seems to be getting back to on/off.
Hope you got in around $5.50, Wish I'd seen it. This kind of action makes me think someone believes in the future of the company, unlike the FMD earnings response.
DeleteSorta like the NATI chart from last Q
By the time I saw it it was only down -17%, I'll generally pass on that type of action or give it the three day and wait test.
DeleteWorking on the first verse of a new song, gonna call it "Pair O' Dice" by The Dashboard Lights.
ReplyDeleteNote the catchy name for the band and there may even be opportunity for a clever circular reference in there somewhere...
So it appears the computers have locked horns again today in some kind of synchronization pattern, see the interesting coil building in the nikkei, as well.
SPX and IWM both small breaks below 50 ma and both have gaps above. A few more days of rally and fail would be best/safest short opp. Or like many do here forget the general mkt and focus on individual stocks, My thesis is when the mkt breaks, I'm not interested in the needle in the haystack.
ReplyDeleteCould go either way, with FED meeting tomorrow likely to be a catalyst.
One other thing, there are way to many large cap stocks which have set-up negative patterns which suggest to me the smart money is distributing.
DeleteWill be interesting to see if they can even close SPX above 1655.8 (Friday's close). I would have expected a bigger bounce there. Still looks bearish to me.
DeleteFollow through is key. Bulls will need to follow this up with another up close on SPX to make this seem like a bottom. I have serious doubts.
DeleteBigger picture is there does appear to be an inverted head and shoulders forming for SPX on the hourly chart. Would be nice to see a follow through day fairly soon that breaks above 1,660.
DeleteIt is hard not to think the shorts will cover going into FED meeting, so more strength here would not surprise, but still think we are going to resolve to the downside.
DeleteIsn't it just the Fed minutes from the last meeting? And Jackson Hole will not have Bernanke there right? Kind of think these are non events but who knows.
DeleteI'd love to get paid for thinking, bring back the good old days!
Delete"Mexican economy deep in the rough patch"
ReplyDeleteAnd
"Business Jet Update: Bizjet flight plan… for sale inventory 11.1% of fleet
22 minutes ago
As of mid-Aug AMSTAT data shows that bizjets for sale as a share of the total fleet slightly decreased sequentially by 5bps to 11.1%. This is the lowest secondary market inventory level in five years"
The First Marblehead Corporation : FMD SHAREHOLDER ALERT: The Law Firm of Wohl & Fruchter LLP Announces Investigation of The First Marblehead Corporation
ReplyDeleteThe law firm of Wohl & Fruchter LLP is investigating possible violations of federal securities laws by officers and directors of The First Marblehead Corporation (First Marblehead) (NYSE: FMD).
On August 15, 2013, after the market close, First Marblehead issued a press release announcing its financial and operating results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ended June 30, 2013.
In the release, the Company disclosed that, in connection with an ongoing IRS audit of its federal income tax returns, the Company expects to receive a Notice of Proposed Adjustment ("NOPA") pursuant to which the IRS would seek to disallow losses that generated tax refunds previously received by the Company, as well as require the Company to include in its tax returns any taxable income from the sale of a certain trust certificate.
The Company estimated that the disallowance of the loss, coupled with the additional taxable income, would create a proposed adjustment equal to approximately $300 million plus interest.
Upon the news, FMD shares declined over 36%, to close at $1.00/share on August 16, 2013.
Wohl & Fruchter's investigation concerns whether First Marblehead management improperly concealed from investors, among other things, the potential magnitude of the proposed adjustment that might result from the IRS audit.
TLT - Yeah, it gaped up so almost nobody who shorted yesterday is green. Nice..........
ReplyDeleteVELT
ReplyDeleteweird:
ReplyDelete"The S&P 500 posted its worst daily percentage decline since mid-November on Wednesday after minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve suggested the central bank may slow or stop buying assets sooner than expected."
from the home page of Yahoo Finance just now. Are they fortune tellers now?
BNNY looks like a cup and handle pattern is forming. This is one I'm keeping an eye on for a potential longer term buy and hold as a play on the organic foods...
ReplyDeleteBest Line on CNBC Fast Money tonight from Oakmark Funds manager, Bill Nygren:
ReplyDeleteQ: What do you do with a chart like this?
A: We don't look at charts.
Good stuff. Man that fund of his had one helluva violent swing in 2008/9. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=OAKLX+Interactive#symbol=oaklx;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Deletehas anyone ever seen this clown in person?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-20/18-signs-global-financial-markets-are-entering-vicious-circle
i wonder if he believes any of this or if he just keeps posting crap like this to keep readership high.
I read it and went outside to see if the sky was still up above me or if it already fell.
DeleteWell!!!??? Shit, it's dark here now and I can't tell. Crap!
DeleteVELT - And another one bites the banana, eh?
ReplyDeleteMM has puked as well, does this mean FB or someone has discovered a way to implement mobile marketing?
Delete“Spain Lenders’ Bad Loan Ratio Reached Record 11.61%.”
ReplyDeletePMT - Trading at 1/2 cash on hand, right?
ReplyDeleteAA - Underperform
ReplyDeleteNOR - Underperform
Looking at SPY, there's a gap up from March, then another from January, what are the chances....?
In addition to pretty much every thing I watch being bearish, I had two major "tells" in the past month:
ReplyDelete(1) A family member of mine that is probably the worst at managing his money I have ever seen told me a month ago he was disappointed with the 10% gain he got last year through his index funds and wanted to invest his money with me and double it over the next year because he heard I was doing well.
(2) I was talking to a friend of mine 2 weeks ago who is pretty much the biggest tin foil hat conspiracy theorist on this planet and we were talking about the market and he was telling me how he was doing really well and how buy and hold pretty much always works. This same guy was all in gold for a while (and is still holding it) and would send out emails every once in a while to all of our friends from 2008 to 2011 about how our economy was screwed because of the fed and the endless money printing.
All of these intraday rallies sure as hell remind me of the 2007-9 bear market. Massive short covering rallies because people got too bearish but the trend inevitably continued down. I don't know if we're in the beginning of a bear market or not but I'm thinking the odds are decent.
ReplyDeleteMy guess is if this is the start of something bad then the entry points on the short side will be very difficult. Most likely the slide would just continue without much in the way of a bounce...maybe a few sideways days like we're having right now but not a massive bounce. And then a huge bounce that sticks for a while and gives bulls hope and gets bears scared. You guys know the drill. Take a look at XOM's slide since July 23rd as an example of how it might start off...
DeleteStill definitely not a sure thing.
NEW POST
ReplyDelete