I just checked in after a long absence and saw that you guys are way overdue to start from a clean page. :) It is actually good to clean out your mind periodically and start from a clean page. This goes well with the saying "trade what you see, not what you think." Clean out all your previous beliefs, all the noise you heard/saw, and just SEE what is happening NOW. I'll be doing this more often now, trying not to look at blogs/news so as not to crowd my head with other people's opinions and instead learning to read the charts myself. This is what 2nd_ave figured out for himself many years ago, and this is what shark_attack figured out as well. Now I'll be joining their camp.
A couple of weeks ago I posted opening a position in BALT at $4.00, with a mental sell stop at $3.75 (previous low) on a closing basis. BALT has not closed below $3.75 since then, and I am still holding my position. Today I decided to set a hard stop/limit at $4.3/4.28 (most recent low), so as to make sure that I exit this trade with a profit.
ReplyDeleteInstead of moving my money from GDX calls (when GDX was $26.50) into BALT at $4.00, it would have been more profitable to keep money in GDX calls. But that's OK -- I am just responding to events as they come using a new discipline (not letting a profit turn into a loss and stopping out myself quickly out of positions that starting going against me right away) and not letting the emotion of greed to sway me. I have already realized that thoughts/emotions that appear inside consciousness are not MY thoughts and emotions -- they are just there by themselves. Only consciousness is permanent, but everything inside of it keeps changing from moment to moment. So there is no reason to worry about anything that arises in the consciousness...
DeleteMy consciousness tells me it's lunch time. Good to have you back David.
DeleteGood trade on BALT, excellent plan. We can all learn from that plan. Ultimately, it makes no difference if your fundamental or technical or quant or whatever, it has to fit your psychological nature.
DeleteThe most important element is to have an equity curve going from lower left to upper right.
XOM, what a chart TOF, something like 18 of 20 days down.
ReplyDeleteCAM which I dumped is similar.
TVIX gone early in the day.
GLL still on as hedge.
pretty important in my opinion that they close this strong today. this could add some sizable overhead resistance...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-signs-of-stock-market-complacency-2013-8
ReplyDeleteI agree with this. Let's see how they close this sucker today. But more importantly I'm interested in seeing how tomorrow transpires.
They have tried to rally this market twice in the past two days on good econ reports. That it still sells off is very negative in my opinion. Could obviously always be wrong but this is the flip side of what we saw in 2009.
ReplyDeleteThis one is for you TOF.
ReplyDeleteI got this yesterday from the Managing Director of the above link (ML)
Subject: SPX Weekly DeMark TD Sequential - 08192013
Take a look at the attached chart. With all the taper talk and downward corporate earnings revisions, I would be willing to bet the 1709 high the week of August 2 will be the high for the year. (For those unfamiliar with the DeMark Indicators, the red 13 on top of the price bar represents the Sell signal. It means that a 22 week, or longer, advance in the index is reversing). A Sell signal on the weekly chart is much more powerful than a similar Sell signal on the daily chart.
So best book your profits now, for as we all know, the market giveth and the market taketh away!
TZA, long let's see if it slices through the 200 ma in the next few days. The mkt is oversold, but does not seem to want to lift, that's what I see.
ReplyDeleteKeep an eye on how XOM traded. This is our guide in my opinion. We could see relentless selling unless there is a washout lower.
Delete"My consciousness tells me it's lunch time."
ReplyDeleteNo, that was just a thought that arose in the consciousness. Consciousness itself doesn't (and cannot!) want anything or need anything. It just perceives what is happening but does not label it or interpret it.
"Good to have you back David."
Thanks. :) But it is not the same David anymore -- the posts here will be made by thoughts that arise in the consciousness. Those thoughts will likely disappear soon after each post is made, and no author will remain...
What shall we call you then?
DeleteI can number the thoughts that arise and you can reply to "thought #173" :)
Deleteshit that means i have to create another spreadsheet to keep track of my thoughts?
DeleteIf we think about the market from a psychological standpoint of the everyday investor and trader this is what I think is going on:
ReplyDeleteTraders: they know the readings on the daily charts are very oversold so they won't short it. Too many people have been burnt for 4.5 years now doing that.
Investors: the ones watching the Dow are just starting to get antsy. They have seen the market pullback 6 days in a row now just after making new all time highs but buy and hold has worked. It worked through all of the pullbacks so they're not terribly concerned. Volume is light right now but it will pick up steam as they sell.
The market is very weak right now. I think the recipe is there for a major decline but the bulls are strong so who knows what will happen. My best guess is we get a 12 to 15% pullback and then rally but ultimately we stay in a big trading range for a while (til end of 2014) with 15 to 25% down from the 1709 high being the stopping point. We shall see.
hahaha:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.upworthy.com/there-is-something-so-satisfying-about-watching-the-daily-show-nail-this-outrageous-hypocrisy-6?g=2
Funny, pasty white w/o sunscreen
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePer Brandt:
ReplyDelete"Russell 2000 (futures) is attempting to complete a H&S top
Decisive close below 1035 is required. There is a history for small H&S tops at the termination of major trends. A close back above 1045 would completely negate this pattern. Remember, a possible top is not a top until it is completed. Intraday penetrations of important chart points no longer mean anything."
Ok, so today we closed at 1017.30 just under 50ema with the RUT cash on its 50sma. The set-up seems to be in play.
Lots of traders see this as a buying opp. Not usually a sign of a bottom.
DeleteTOF, no question a lot of traders will view it that way, but we had a chance to rally today and closed on lows. One indicator that bothers me here for going short is the McClellan Oscillator which is pretty oversold and usually not could short entry points.
DeleteWe are at an inflection point right here, regardless of outcome an aggressive trader should be willing to take the trade. In any regard I intend to be nimble and if we swoon on open tomorrow may cover.
I agree with your take here Tele. I did add 2K shares of BSBR though @ 5.58. I'll stop out at 5.40ish.
Delete"shit that means i have to create another spreadsheet to keep track of my thoughts?"
ReplyDeleteThat would actually be a very useful exercise! At least to keep a mental track of your desires, attitudes and moods. You will pretty quickly discover that regardless of what is present right now, the mind keeps generating new desires and judgements -- that's what it has evolved to do, after all! So when you are working to satisfy a desire that the mind has generated and that the consciousness has observed, you actually become a slave to that particular desire. But where will that desire be tomorrow or a year from now? This approach to life will make you a permanent slave to constantly changing masters. You probably have heard this before, but until you actually SEE it in your own life, until you realize that all your previous efforts to get a lasting happiness were wasted and that nothing you may do in the future will give you any lasting happiness and finally satisfy the mind to make it stop generating new desires, you won't generate enough courage to say ENOUGH and start identifying yourself with the unchanging consciousness instead.
The collapse of the PM sector was the last straw for me, after which I said to myself ENOUGH! No more slavery to desires, no more "personal projects", no more hopes about the future. Just living as a pure consciousness, doing what the current situation demands, and observing, with great interest, the constantly changing stream of forms that are arising in the consciousness...
David - with regards to the market, pay close attention to the way the markets traded in the 1970s / early 1980's. Go to Yahoo and study those charts to get a sense for the history of what it's like to be in those kinds of markets. The market isn't strong enough to have a big rally without giving most of it back just yet. The larger the rises in the market the harder the falls. I don't see sub 1,000 in the S&P by any means but we could easily see a painful 25% fall over the next 12 to 18 months.
DeleteCovered some of my SPY short at $164.02 just now. Will look to short around $164.7 tomorrow if possible. Also bought XOM at $86.26
ReplyDeleteI'll jinx you and say I like it. Understandable reaction considering they basically said they'd never achive current reserves.
DeleteEven though I'll be out before that issue is resolved, what does "never archive current reserves" mean?
DeleteGood to see you back, David!
ReplyDeleteApart from that, I don't really have much to say.
DeleteDon't miss 'Unfinished Sky' on NFLX, bro.
DeleteThanks! Both my wife and I liked the description (indie genre and the local specifics of other cultures), so we'll watch it in the next few days!
DeleteI saw that WFC laid off like 2,300 people in their mortgage unit due to slowing refinancings caused by rising rates. I was also looking through a list of companies in my screen and came across this with FMAR:
ReplyDelete"Mark A. Keidel, 1st Mariner's Interim Chief Executive Officer, said, "Our results this quarter were dampened by rising long term interest rates, which slowed refinancings and overall revenue from our mortgage banking operations as compared to the second quarter of 2012. Additionally, we experienced higher operating expenses for professional services and expenses associated with efforts to raise capital.""
TOF,
ReplyDeleteI really have a tough time seeing why we would have a bear market at this time:
1. Inflation - non-existent, so no requirement for much higher rates which would crush the market
2. Interest Rates - rates normalizing should improve market confidence and coincide with an improving economy, both of which will help the market
3. Valuations - valuations seem reasonable in the overall market. Some overvaluations exist (eg. high yielders), but undervaluations exist in other areas
4. Sentiment - To me market sentiment these days seems to go up and down very quickly with the market. I don't see stubborn bullishness that you expect at a major market top.
5. Momentum - We have had a few percent pullback over the last month, but in the context of a market with is still up around 15% this year, I'd still say broad market momentum is positive.
I just don't see any excesses that would justify a bear market. Plus, you've got US economy growing, US housing strengthening, Europe coming out of recession, China continuing to grow at 7% - all things which will generate more economic growth, not contraction.
Weak time of year for the markets - August/September, so we may just be seeing that right now and then continue upwards once we are through this. I think one thing to watch over the next few weeks to see if we could moving into a bear way will be for earnings warnings - many companies have back-end loaded their earnings forecasts, so if we see an unusual number of warnings, could be a sign that earnings estimates are too high and need to come down and pull share prices with it.
Will be an interesting couple of months either way for sure!
TZA, sold to you, all off.
ReplyDeleteSome traditional TA levels from Twiggs. http://goldstocksforex.com/2013/08/22/global-selling-pressure/
ReplyDeleteNowhere to run, nowhere to hide?
Landry: Transports/Food/drugs selling. Traditionally stronger in downtrends....yet....
Big picture tops off of all time highs have bowties. Stack your MA's and keep your eye on them.
Metals and mining showing strength off of major bottoms.
10yr rate has about doubled in three months... Markets don't like high rates, right?
ReplyDeleteGreece - "Will need another bailout."
ReplyDeleteSpain - "Bad loan rate increased to 11.61% from 9.65% in the last 12mo"
BALT - David's shipper is doing well again today....
ReplyDeleteCLF @ 22
ReplyDeleteoff @ 22.50
DeleteSDS 38.24
ReplyDeletePM's - If a flat yield curves place pressure on prices, then a steepening curve is positive?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDi64fShuS0
DeleteQCOR - Neu -> Buy
ReplyDeleteTOF- XOM, they said in their CC that proven reserves (oil, etc.) would be unsustainable. Ie, shrinky.
ReplyDeleteNLS - This puppy isn't going to break down, is it?
ReplyDeleteHPQ's problem...Not on the cover of Esquire.
ReplyDeleteUgh...my weekend is already ruined. 2 birthday parties here.
ReplyDeleteMmmmm. Margaritas in sippy cups.
DeleteYep, but for me!
DeleteThat was my thought. Don't waste perfectly good tequila on children.
DeleteWe have a birthday here as well, Margaritas sound like a great idea to me......
DeleteNUGT- This thing is a fricking wild ride.
ReplyDeleteBig showdown at the fiddy corral. If we close above the fiddy the next gun fight is the bottom of the gap.
ReplyDeleteWhere the heck is that gap, 1680 or 1685? I keep hearing about it but so far I haven't found it, LOL!
DeleteTop of gap on the SPY : 168.74 8/14
DeleteBottom of gap : 167.38 8/15
Yeah, hell, I see it now. Not sure what my malfunction was..... DUHooih, thx...
DeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteI think all big oil has that problem - how to grow reserves on such a large basis. People won't pay up without reserve growth. Better to look for smaller oil companies with better growth prospects.
CP,
ReplyDeleteEven though the 10 year has doubled it is still low in the grand scheme of things.
The real way to look at it is:
Rising rates to address inflation -> bad
Rising rates due to increased economic demand -> good
I don't think the average person is that savvy. They will see rising rates as negative and the cause won't matter.
DeleteSavers will love higher rates, those with capital will love it.
Those the relay on lower rates and that use credit won't.
As Landry has noted, it isn't so much rising rates, it's the rate or delta of the rise.
I agree with your point BB, rates are still uber-low. The FED hasn't actually changed their habits yet, and TOF argues ED actions have limited effect.
DeleteSo I dunno, I'll probably just go play in the water and hope, it's the best I can do.
After 6 consecutive days of doenside I would rather add some BSBR to my port considering the 7th day may spell reversal. $5.85 should be in the bag, at the least.
Sold XOM at $87.26. Reshorted SPY at $165.75.
ReplyDeleteBB - I completely agree with everything you're saying about the reasons to be bullish. However, I think the bull market is over. We could potentially get new highs but I don't think it lasts. I would be raising cash.
While I don't know if we will go into a bear market as it's defined (20% down) I do think all rallies for the next 12 to 18 months should be sold. I think it's very dangerous to assign optimism to any days like this which are bounces thus far. If the bounces takes over 60% of drop then I'll change my opinion in the short term.
DeleteOne other thing: Look at the weakness in the Dow.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55022260004
In my opinion this is going the way of XOM. This is the index that most retail investors pay attention to. Whether or not you agree the negative trading in the Dow definitely has an effect on people's psyches. I think the market is weak and I would be cautious.
Good point. I'm just watching absolute levels.
Delete50 DMA
Bottom of gap.
Top of gap.
New highs.
It would be hard to ignore a few big up days where we cross the 50, close the gap and start plowing through the overhead supply. If we do I would again be cautious at the top of the prior range.
I actually hope BB is right, but...well you know.
With weakness in mind I think there is a chance that any negative news coming out at any time and hurting the market. That's just what I'm thinking. Obviously a day like today flies in the face of this but if you look at the SPX we are still making lower highs and lower lows and we're putting in a bear flag.
DeleteI agree CC. I will stand aside from shorting if we take over more than 60% of the drop.
DeleteWell, we should see fairly soon one way or another as we get into September.
DeleteIt could be we are both right and the market becomes more of mixed one where some stocks go up and others go down. You tend to look more at the high fliers and I look at the beaten down ones.
I'm looking at stocks first, the sectors second and the indices overall, in that order.
DeleteBasically bottom up.
That's why I'm interested in metals and miners. They formed a bottom and are turning up while transports, interest sensitive stocks and sectors, former high fliers (including those sectors that traditionally do well or better in down markets like food and drugs) and indices are rolling over. We are getting to that 'show me' stage. Hopefully the markets have a few big up days and we can all breathe a sigh of relief.
CC, I think you and I are on the same page. Seeing some rotation here as interest rates rise and the economy improves. I also think energy should do well.
DeleteLarge cap indexes like the Dow have a lot of those stocks which could be under pressure, so the Dow may not be the best market proxy for a while.
I think the RSP (S&P 500 equal weighted) is the best ETF to represent the overall market and it's chart looks better than the Dow's.
BAC - Not long ago I saw an article that claimed BACML, and one other, (C possibly) were the aggressive lenders this past Q, and WFC had backed off.
ReplyDeleteOf course I don't recall which sectors the lending was taking place, probably wasn't included in the article so I just shrugged and wondered as usual, why the article seemed incomplete.
YRCW - Which way from here?
ReplyDeleteSomeone throw a bid in there to unlock the computers, please!
ReplyDeleteAnyone looked at India Bank ICICI (IBN)?
ReplyDeleteI know India is a mess, but they still seem to be running their business well and the stock is back to May, 2009 levels. Unless things completely fall apart (which is possible for India), seems like it should be a good time to buy.
Oh dang, good thinking. Also, I read lately that Mexico's economy is a basket case. I remember well what happened when they said the same thing about the US economy, the FED f__ed around just long enough for the market to crash, before taking any corrective actions.
DeleteThis proves prices go up AND down! :)
Love those trading halts, always an indicator of good news in the werks.
ReplyDeleteLet's please not close green, we need a trend indeed.
ReplyDeleteA thought just arose in my consciousness that I should check out the chart of the Baltic Dry Index and compare it with the price of BALT. Not surprisingly, I saw a very high correlation. While the present breakout in BALT seems nice, BDI has simply rose to the level at which it was rejected several times over the past year.
ReplyDeleteThen another thought arose and suggested that it might be a good idea to sell BALT now and then wait for BDI to break out, convincingly, above 1200. At that point, I can wait for a pullback in BALT and safely enter it, knowing that the fundamentals of the industry are finally moving in the right direction.
So I just sold my BALT position at $4.67.
Nice trade. My consciousness is saying I'm a tard for going short.
DeleteUnless we get a parabolic move higher in the market I think the run in small caps is over. Up 40% in 8 months and 77% in 22 months. Only period it did better in such a short time span was 1999/2000 during the largest bubble of modern history.
DeleteNot sure if it is an apples to apples comparison. A couple of years ago many many of those small caps were very cheap. Now not so cheap but certainly not expensive like in the late 1990s.
DeleteHave you seen the trailing P/E's on the Russell 2000? Even forward P/E's are at 19...and that's based on OPERATING income and not net income.
DeleteI know lots of people talk about margin debt but came across this one:
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/ddbf5bcd-78be-4da9-8fd2-c5d2e67104da/Thoughts1_20130820081031.jpg
Isn't it just amazing how a reversal just happens to occur as so many stocks and equities move back to test previous support levels?
ReplyDeletePIE is another slice.
I am preparing to exit a bunch of my PM positions tomorrow at a loss, while there is still some "resemblance" of money left in them.
ReplyDeleteThe recent rebound in expected inflation is over. Check out this chart:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=87988&category_id=0
Today, it has dropped to 2.11%. There is no reason for people to pile money into gold/silver if the rates are going up (providing a competition for non-interest bearing PMs) but inflation is going down.
The PM sector bottomed in late June, the exact day that the expected inflation had bottomed. So the connection between the two is not just logical -- it is there in the charts.
If GDX drops tomorrow below yesterday's spike low, then the lights are out for a while...
DeleteHow's the dumb money doing today?
ReplyDeleteFine, thanks!
DeleteBB- I agree with your take on the majors. Goes with MOG's plateau oil theme.
ReplyDeleteSo then the logical strategy involves exploration and associated equipment suppliers, right?
DeleteThat's the play birdie. I'm kinda waiting a little and doing some work on it. A few names seem interesting but nothing to share yet.
DeleteSLB, perhaps bull flag weekly, but high priced for this group. If right goes to 100.
DeleteScreen
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=141&f=ind_oilgasdrillingexploration&o=-perf4w
Oil Service companies in Canada are cheap, and seem to be getting some respect and are starting to move off very low valuations. Seems like a good time to buy and hold for a couple of years.
DeleteIf you believe the long term oil story, stocks like SU is cheaper than it's been in years, cheaper than it's peers, and has decades of oil (via oil sands) in the ground - no worry about reserves there.
People keep wondering if XOM might take out IMO (Imperial Oil Canada) just so they can consolidate their reserves on their books. They own about 75% already and IMO has huge oil sands reserves as well.
Someone help me shake this bearish feeling. DJX is, in my opinion, on the verge of a multi month decline.
ReplyDeleteChart of RUT, in agreement with Brandt, by Ghostine.
Deletehttp://charts.61point8.com/20130822-RUT.png
1045 close is Brandt's termination of set-up.
Your Twitter buddy, Ryan Detrick, is quite positive on the markets noting a lot of negative sentiment and the usual bottoming time of late Aug - early Sept.
DeleteHave you been looking at individual stocks much? I find one of the worst things to do is look at the "market", as it is not real like stocks, more just something to gamble on.
DeleteBetter to look at stocks and let them drive your overall view of things rather than top down market.
BB - I'm looking almost exclusively at individual stocks.
DeleteBB, I actually like your view and the older I get the less I enjoy trading. I look at both all the time. It is my view that if the general mkt rolls it will take most stocks with it and I'm not good finding the nuggets of gold that do not follow mkt.
DeleteInteresting while we have became fearful of the gold equities the last few months it has been one of the better sectors (good for David). Likewise your call on Life insurers and insurance was better than any analyst out by months.
Here are the stocks that make me concerned, in no particular order:
DeleteTGT
XOM
DIS
GE
TOL
WMT
JWN
M
GOOG
AMZN
Most of them made all time highs recently (or at least new bull market highs) and have pretty much rolled over and not had any ability to bounce.
Obviously if the market does get some strength for a few days and closes above these resistance points then I'll change my opinion. I'm cautious for now.
Those aren't small companies. They are the big dogs. Total market cap is $1.47 Trillion for these 10 companies. So if big caps aren't working then where are people hiding? Small caps? Well, those are "only" up 40% since November and 75% over the past 22 months.
DeleteAND
DeletePM
KO
T
MCD
SPG
NESN
SHW
WMT
IBM
ACN
NG
EBAY
I'm rooting for things to pick up again and get some strength because it's easier to trade up markets in my opinion. Would be nice to see new highs in the nasdaq, financials and small caps.
DeleteEWZ long, possible double bottom (PBR looking good). Nice add on BSBR Mark (BSR small Cap Brasil).
ReplyDeleteSP hang's in there. Later gators.
BRF NOT BSR
DeleteSince GLD, SLV, and GDXJ all broke out to multi-month highs today, I am holding off on selling my PM-related positions.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-23/sales-of-new-homes-in-u-s-plunged-more-than-forecast-in-july.html
ReplyDeleteI don't think sentiment is at work here guys, that's no longer the accurate metric.
ReplyDeleteResentment is the metric at work.
Not quite the same phenomenon, not even close!
I tend to think that the stocks you posted, other than a couple, our kind of out of favor now. A lot of charts for financial stocks are in solid uptrend. Plus energy seems to be making a bottom as well as many of the other commodities. And a lot of the consumer stocks that are not the high dividend payout is are also doing well.
ReplyDeletePlus you have a lot of non American markets doing well like many of the Europeans, and even the emerging markets. Lookout ING as a good example
I think that the correction we are going through now is really more about rotating into different sectors then the end of the bull market.
By the way, my personal view maybe jaded by the fact that my personal stocks are doing well and my portfolio is still at an all time high even as of yesterday.
DeleteI've been looking into your Brazil banks. I can't quite find a spot yet to buy them from a technical perspective. I worry that something funky is going to come down the pike that we're not looking at. Are we missing anything?
ReplyDeleteAlso, check out the dividend payouts on all of these Brazil banks:
BDORY:
2011 - $.4759
2012 - $.2119
BSBR:
2010 - $.528
2011 - $.497
2012 - $.348
ITUB:
2011 - $.7077
2012 - $.5512
What's up with the declines in payouts? Are these going to see a 2009 style financial crisis that wipes out these div payouts?
Probably just European style dividends, based on a percentage of earnings or cash flow. Plus you need to look at the exchange rates ineffect that the time of payment.
Deletei hear you but the total dividend payout continues to decline amongst all of these. What confidence do you have that they're not heading the way of the US banks in 2008?
DeleteNew plan for PMs: if GDXJ starts going down next week and retraces today's jump, then I am out.
ReplyDeleteEveryone's favorite 200 bagger wicker maker down a good deal from the highs. Fess up...who's buying new outdoor furniture and tchotchkes?
ReplyDeleteI'm impressed with your correct spelling of the word tchotchkes.
Delete