Sunday, August 25, 2013
08/25/13 The Gaming of the Mob
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investor-sentiment-sinks-teeing-up-rebound-2013-08-25
There's one paragraph in the above article that caught my eye:
'But J.J. Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago, says the data indicates retail investors are becoming more savvy. The AAII data, which is largely consistent with the brokerage firm’s own survey data, shows traders prudently taking some money off the table as equities trade near highs.'
We've had a good run in the US indexes, and once in awhile, the retail investor is right. If he's selling now, then I think he's selling high.
It's also possible ('human nature never changes' notwithstanding) that the crowd has 'learned' something after three market crashes in our generation. It's a pretty sophisticated crowd, after all.
The 'gaming' of the retail investor will never change, and majority will always enrich the few. It's just that the 'game' may be progressing (or may have already progressed) to another level, one we have yet to discern.
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A deep-seated belief in better times yet to come is needed to propel the bull market higher despite fundamentals being much weaker than in other economic recoveries. Once this veil of optimism is lifted and the crowd starts looking cautiously at the market, who is there to propel this overvalued/overbought market to new highs?
ReplyDeleteIf you were "the smart money" that bought in a long time, you wouldn't pull out your money as long as your clients are still very optimistic about stocks. But when you sense that your clients stop being very optimistic, that's when the time comes for the smart money to pull out.
I remember reading in the book "Come into my trading room" by Dr. Alexander Elder that an "easy trade" is the one where there is a well-defined entry and exit point. The chances of profitability are increased if one *waits* for the price direction to show itself, rather than jumps in early *hoping* that the desired price direction will transpire later. Also, the potential loss is limited due to the well-defined exit criterion.
ReplyDeleteNow take a loot at the 2-year chart of IWM. From Sept 2011 till November 2012 the lows were lying on the a reasonably sloped line, which was only slightly steeper than the line connecting the lows from 2004 to 2007. But since November 2012, the slope of the line connecting the lows became extreme. So a possible trading plan might be to short IWM once this line is broken to the downside (say if IWM breaks down next week below this week's lows) and then cover if IWM rises back above that level. If that happens to be a fake rebound and soon after that IWM dips below that level again -- all the better, because then many early-shorters will be stopped out and disheartened, so the southbound train will be more empty and thus will have more chances of traveling farther. What do you guys think about this plan? Have you seen it in any other blogs? If so, then it probably won't work...
Actually, I think many impatient shorters have jumped in on August 15, 16, and 19, and the bounce we had since then was a natural consequence. So if IWM starts going down next week and drops below Wednesday's close of 101.48, then I'll probably short it and put a stop at last Friday's high of 103.25.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Count me in as one of the "impatient shorters". I have TZA at about a $26.5 avg.
Delete2ne - One thing I always think of is how much the game has changed since people have had access to online trading. It broke down a ton of barriers.
Another thing that I never forget: in order to buy low you actually need to sell high. It's a simple concept in theory but hard in practice.
So what I mean is the rise in small caps indeed has been parabolic. And the valuations on pretty much any metric don't support long term success. And that stands for the overall market as well. Even Buffett's favorite metric (total market cap vs GDP) suggests prices are extremely high. Obviously I understand the way markets work and how things can go higher than you think they should be rationally.
DeleteTOF- I agree, and I've said it here before, if someone like me with margin can day trade with over $2m that has to change SOMETHING.
DeleteThere might be a quick trade in NES tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGood article from Calculated Risk on why the economy will get better:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/08/the-future-is-still-bright.html
I feel very confident that the economy does improve going forward. If it doesn't the fed can push rates back down again to help. There seems to be very little risk of inflation to stop this. But I really do believe rates are rising not because the fed will taper, but because the economy is improving which is pushing both the tape and the rise in rates.
The other thing I would still point out is that there are cheap stocks out there which you can own. Take a look at this chart of MET and it's P/B ratio. Lifeco's are generally valued on percentage of P/B ratio depending on their ROE. As rates rise, ROE should improve, yet MET is pretty much at it's lowest P/B in it's 13 year public history.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gurufocus.com/chart/met#&serie=,,id:pb,s:aeg
Can MET continue up in a general down market? Possibly, it depends on how far the market goes down and why, but I feel pretty good about continuing to hold. Not as good as I did when it was in the $30's of course, but feel my downside is probably reasonable still.
One stock I LOVE is OSTK. Check it out when you get a chance. $46 Million in free cash flow the past 12 months. Huge turnaround. Could have a massive parabolic move higher.
ReplyDeleteThis would be longer term of course because it's extremely volatile over shorter term periods.
DeleteNES down 20% this morning:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1653072-nuverra-environmental-a-sinking-ship-with-default-risk
Looks like they're still loosing money, I'm not sure at this point I want anything to do with companies in that habit.
DeleteI guess someone scalped a bounce but it's probably close to done now.
If this breaks LOD, all hell could break lose.
DeleteARR - Wishing I'd added in $3.70's Who knows, maybe this thing will move on back up?
ReplyDeleteJOY - Earnings in a couple days.
ReplyDeleteDE - Looks like this one's headed back to $92, doesn't it?
DeleteHow's it looking out there, any chance of a turnaround?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.yachtingmagazine.com/sites/all/files/_images/201211/turning.jpg
Is that yours?
DeleteNahhhhhh! No way man, I hate big boats. I'd go nutz with that one just trying to keep the decks scrubbed! :)
DeleteNice Chris Craft.
DeleteIt's actually a Hinkley jet boat pretending it's a jet ski.
DeleteGot a bit lucky there and sold my shares in L just before the market dropped. Had a good run and wasn't that cheap anymore and have some issue to work through. Plus, I find it better to sell some things to get me better focused on new purchases, so good to have the cash there and, if TOF is right about the pullback/bear, doesn't hurt either.
ReplyDeleteHow many analysts are calling for a bear market right now?
ReplyDeleteWhat's your estimate?
Delete25% down over the next 18 months is possible.
DeleteObviously, I'm a short/medium term trader so things could change.
DeleteIs that because no analysts, except Hussman, of course :), are calling for a bear market now?
Deleteno a variety of reasons:
Delete(1) how big cap stocks + emerging markets are trading
(2) technical deterioration (i.e., weakening RSI_EMA readings, sell signals on a variety of indicators like MACD, Stochastics, Advance Decline #'s)
(3) valuations > use Buffetts favorite metric (total market value / GDP) or use price to sales and market is quite expensive. Small caps are extremely expensive.
(4) parabolic rise in the russell over past 4 years and particularly last 8 months (+40%) + fewer and fewer stocks hitting new all time highs
Just a bunch of things all lining up for me that says its time to take caution. Of course, this could all change if the market recoups old highs etc. Just keep mental stops in place if you want to short or just sit in cash and wait for prices of the best stocks to come to you...when good stocks drop by 30-50% and youre in cash you can make a ton on the next upturn.
it could happen tomorrow for all we know!
DeleteBy the way, I do think it helps that almost all analysts are calling for estimates in the 1700 to 1800 with continuation to the 1800 to 2000 level for the S&P next year. Where were these guys just a year ago!?
DeleteOne other thing I think is interesting but I put no weight in it is the VIX seems to be putting in a rounded bottom over the course of the entire year, much like it did in late 2006 / early 2007. I don't see many people talking about it but the VIX low came in March, about 5 months before the market peaked. In the last bull the VIX low came in December 2006 but the market peak came in the following summer.
KINS - Here's an insurance company trading at less than sales.....
ReplyDeleteBSBR - A gap up that needs to fill and a 5 day IH&S that projects to ~$6.50
ReplyDeletei still don't see any support whatsoever for the stock but maybe i'm not seeing things right. I think the continued decline in dividend payouts is concerning as well. what is the potential for massive write downs that we don't know of? smart money is invested in it but they were invested in the us banks before 2008.
DeleteExactly. If it were a big US bank, I would be confident the FED would "do whatever it takes", but a US listed foreign bank? On my "iffy" list for sure.
DeleteSome Bears:
ReplyDeleteRalph Acampora is the most vocal technician about a bear market to Dow 12,000.
Doug Kass also calling for a bear (even though he's not tweeting).
Hussman, of course, but nothing new there.
Tim Melvin, who's a hard cord value investor, says it's the riskiest market he's ever invested in.
Jeff Saut at Raymond James calling for a 10% correction starting now.
Don Hays, thinks we are in a correction already.
I still believe that even if we get a major bear market, it will be a "normal" one where you can still make money with the right stocks on the long side like in the 2001 one and not a everything loses, margin-selling crushing market like 2008.
ReplyDeleteI did make money on the short side in 2001 bear market, but still made more on the long side, mainly because of how much harder it is to accurately time a short as opposed to a long.
I think you need an improving economy to keep the bull market going though and stocks should rise in conjunction with the improving economy.
ReplyDeleteI believe we get this, but if I am wrong, will be a big problem with my approach.
Regarding market cap to GDP:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.valuewalk.com/2013/06/market-cap-to-gdp-1989-2013/
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS
US is seen as overvalued at 120%, but Eurozone market cap to GDP is around 50%.
I'd say opportunities are out there, just in different places.
Again, we both could make money here - you, shorting the over-valued, yield-heavy DOW, and me buying undervalued Euro and EM stocks.
No right way to make money - they are all good.
The thing is, I'm not sure Europe has completed it's downside. And if something negative does happen in Europe, no doubt the US market will have a good spree to the downside.
DeleteIt's just so complex......
If its easy, its already priced into the markets.
Deletehttp://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/stock-market-us/obama%E2%80%99s-comments-concerning-for-stock-bulls/
ReplyDeleteHow much of this is already in stock prices though? Don't hear much talk about what could happen to the market if something good happens in the economy.
DeleteRyanDetrick Aug. 26 at 4:59 PM
ReplyDeletePast 20 yrs, if $SPX up >10% into Sept = up 4 of 5 times and avg. +2.83% during month versus otherwise loss of -1.28%.
http://stks.co/egOW
JO - Safe place to hide some bread?
ReplyDeleteIs this true?
ReplyDelete"Whiting's (WLL) Tarpon Federal wells are monsters, and at this point are the top five oil-producing wells."
Markets seemed a bit panicky this morning and the chart for the SPY hit the uptrend as I draw it going back to last November.
ReplyDeleteWould be good for the short term bull case if this held and we bounced from here. Also, into a generally strong time of the month.
I sent MOG another article about depletion rates for shale plays. I hope he doesn't shot me!
ReplyDeleteDidn't he already say those wells don't deplete as rapidly as portrayed by the media?
DeleteThat's what I recall from the last bit we heard from him, and that insiders were selling.
CPRX - Taking half off here.
ReplyDeletePII - This one kicked butt too, huh?
ReplyDeleteWill Lumpy close that gap up from Jan?
ReplyDeleteUCO - Wow....
ReplyDeleteDo you guys think this is a bull trap play here? I kinda think oil can't stay here/move too much higher but if it does it won't remain high for long.
DeleteI am getting more comfortable with increasing my investments in energy. Oil seems to be staying high and stocks are mostly cheap. I was previously concerned about the Balkan production, but even with that, prices stay up.
DeleteCould be a good opportunity to build positions.
PIE - How much further can this thing fall?
ReplyDeleteJust bought 6 January 14 $100 puts on IWM at $4.63. Will exit if IWM rises above yesterday's highs.
ReplyDeleteThis ain't about Syria. The writing was on the wall for the past 2 weeks. Let's see if the bears can get the S&P through recent lows first though.
ReplyDeleteS&P is already below last week's lows. So is CNI. Both are a great shorts right now, with a stop at recent highs...
Deleteif you're going to do that then give yourself a little more room than just getting stopped at the previous support.
DeleteSince I already have IWM puts and they are will-correlated with SPY puts, I just bought 4 January 14 $95 puts on CNI at $5.30. Will cover if CNI rises above last week's high of $96.5.
DeleteTOF, if the market is meant to go down now, then it should not rise above last week's high. If it does, then in the case of IWM that would make a higher low and a higher high since last week, which is not a pattern to short.
DeleteCNR.TO chart looks better than CNI (due to US/C$ exchange rates) - still hasn't broken June lows.
DeleteTough call though - I'm sure in 3 years I'll be happy I held it, but it sure is tempting to try and market time it here.
"TOF, if the market is meant to go down now, then it should not rise above last week's high. If it does, then in the case of IWM that would make a higher low and a higher high since last week, which is not a pattern to short."
DeleteDavid - I'd recommend study the price performance of the market heading into small and large bear markets to give you a sense of just how confusing it can be...just move the data range along to check out prior periods...there's no such thing as a definite:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#symbol=^gspc;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma%2850,200%29+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
*recommend studyING, that is...
DeleteIs it now time for Icahn to go through his own bear market? He's been on a helluva run. Hopefully his own experience tells him its time to bail. You never know when you will become the next Bill Ackman.
ReplyDeleteOne of the smart value guys I read says the high dividend safety type stock could be as much as double their real value. Plus momo's like tesla are crazy, and reit's are way too high as well. Is a big percentage of the market, and if it falls, could easily bring a lot of the rest of the market down, as TOF thinks.
ReplyDeleteBut he likes the Europeans, and thanks for the commodities are pretty much a no brainer down here.
Makes sense in a lot of ways.
BB - people were hiding in dividend stocks (including REITs), then small caps and momo stocks (like FSLR TSLA (now big cap) etc), then housing stocks, and finally all US stocks. This is going to come undone to a certain extent but it could take a while. I just don't see the good risk-reward setup like we had for the past 4 years. Could be wrong cuz you never know how much people are willing to pay for things (e.g., Gold at $1,900)...
DeleteWhat about the multi-year chart of a stock like SU? It is still back at 2005 levels, is the cheapest it's been on most metrics in more than a decade, oil is holding up, Buffet or one of his guys, is buying. Hard to see it doesn't do well if the economy hangs in and energy demand increases, even if the market tanks.
DeleteI think you could be right. Part of me wonders how much the whole alt energy / eletric / renewables thing will mix stuff up for these energy guys but I'm sure they have a big stake in it all. Its just very confusing to me as far as the longer term picture goes for oil consumption vs alternatives...
DeleteTransportation is still, by far, the largest user of oil, and even with the 25,000 Tesla's a year, the 250 million cars on the road are going to continue to use a lot.
DeleteBut it is a incremental supply /demand product and prices are set at the margin, so could be volitile.
You've got me a little confused on the "REIT's are overpriced" observation, the few I'm monitoring just put in some very low lows..... So I dunno where that was derived, it doesn't seem like that could be the case at this point.
Delete
ReplyDeleteNuverra Environmental (NES -6.6%) extends yesterday's losses sparked by a negative post on Seeking Alpha, which said "a liquidity crisis is looming" and shares could fall 80% over the next year.
Jefferies analyst Scott Graham is out defending NES, disputing claims that the company has a high probability of bankruptcy and saying the article ignores data on financial ratios "as seen by the banks."
Graham also points out that Dick Heckmann has not jumped ship and remains chairman with significant ownership.
The analyst is not positive on the stock, however, maintaining a Hold rating and cutting his price target to $2.75 from $3.25.
LOL, I'm not getting what I'd call an inspirational feeling......
DeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteyou are more of a chart guy, but CNI under $90 (to get your puts in the money) would mean the 2014 P/E would be under 13.
Going to have to see some pretty strong market selling or economic weakness before many people would let a best-in-class railway get away at that price(CNI and UNP are the best).
MOG of depletion rates...
ReplyDeleteSame old. Art Berman keeps beating this horse. Decline rates are high in first few years, everyone understands that. What makes the shale gas/oil different is the long asymptotic decline curve, i.e, wells produce at lower rates for tens of years as they drain thick shale sections. Our experience in Marcellus is decline rates avg. 27%, but steeper first 18 months, then level off. We have continued to increase our recoverable reserves/well .
In the Barnett of Central Texas (most mature shale play), been over 16,000 wells drilled in past ten years, producing 2Tcf a day now, will decline to 900 Bcf /day in 2020, and continue to produce well out to 2050. Berman is correct in that all of these plays require nearly continuous drilling to maintain production, name of the game. The reserves are there at $4.00 gas, 65-85$ oil, but have to keep drilling costs under control and shipping/transportation...need the pipes. Trucking/train is adding $7/bbl to the consumer, but the pipes will come over next few years. Not sure of Bakken decline rates, but expect first two years are 40-60%, not unusual....keep on drilling, keep wells producing longer. Permian Basin is the next big thing, but I do not think as economically lucrative as Bakken.
The European/Asian/Latin America shale gas/oil will follow but it will take decades to build out infrastructure, service industry, technology, etc. People forget how long we have been at it in a very mature petroleum market.
I wish I could figure out which way you're headed with this, what is it concerning this subject that's not making sense?
DeleteAt about mid-day traders have recalled that GDX and GDXJ have no business being up on a strong market down day, regardless of the fact that they were being sold for months BECAUSE the market was going up. What an unfortunate sector...
ReplyDeleteI wish I could understand it. Could just be profit taking, I guess but a pretty big smackdown on some of them.
DeleteDNDN - Pretty beat up....
ReplyDeleteBB -- do you recall what CNI's P/E was in 2010? 2011?
ReplyDeleteOK, I looked it up myself. They made $5.45/share in 2011 and in the middle of the 2011 correction (not at its bottom) the stock was trading at $70, which places its P/E at 12.8. This year, they are expected to make $6.15/share, so at a P/E of 13, this would place their stock at $80, which also corresponds to 2011 resistance and to support for mid-2012. So $80 is a reasonable downside target for CNI during a correction.
Deletemid 14's. Got down around 11 in 2007 / 2008. I really don't think we see that poor of a market, but it is economically sensitive, so if we get expectation of a poor economy, that would be the low-end of where we go.
DeleteMorningstar is great for that type of info (year-end data):
http://financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html?t=CNI®ion=USA&culture=en-US
I betcha tomorrow doesn't begin well.
ReplyDeleteOne thing on valuations: consider that in early 1973 the market traded at 19 times earnings. The market then went down about 50% and traded at a trough PE of 7.8 while earnings went UP 30% in the 18 month bear market. Can the earnings of our market go up 15% and the market trade at 12 times earnings vs 16 times in light of Obama switching to a new Fed president and the Fed pulling back on QE?
ReplyDeletei know interest rates were a factor but it's all about the rate of change not the absolutes or so they say, right? from late 1972 to the fall of 1974 the 10yr rate went from 6.4 to 8.2%. rates now are so much lower but they're trending up and the debt levels across countries throughout the world and across individuals is so much higher now than then so a move from 1.5 to 3ish could have potentially been a big deal. who knows? i still think with WFC significantly paring down their mortgage division is an ominous sign. those guys are the smartest guys in the biz.
DeleteMore just related to rising rates than reducing the mortgage business. People don't refinance with rising rates, so you don't need that group. I'm sure the originations group will stay very active.
Delete"Wells Fargo said refinancings comprised 56 percent of its mortgage originations in the second quarter of this year, compared with 62 percent a year ago. The bank’s mortgage applications totaled $146 billion in the second quarter, compared with $208 billion a year ago."
Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/08/21/4252906/wells-fargo-gives-60-day-notices.html#storylink=cpy
CP- Just still researching E&P guys. There's obviously a reason they have underperformed with high oil.
ReplyDeleteIt's my experience that the E&P companies don't trade with the near month oil contract (the one everyone quotes). That spikes and drops based on all sorts of factors like Syria which have little bearing on the long term supply-demand fundamentals. Plus it is more complex than that in that if we have a large price spike in oil, that can actually reduce future demand as people look for alternatives and drive longer term demand down.
DeleteBetter to look at the out month contracts to see what they can really expect from their sales. For example, the October, 2014 contract (randomly picked) has basically range traded from $87 to $94 over the last year and just got over $94 to hit $95.76 today - not a huge move.
WSJ has good commodity charts
:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3028.html?category=Energy&subcategory=Petroleum&contract=Crude%252520Light%252520Oil%252520Comp.%252520-%252520nymex&catandsubcat=Energy%257CPetroleum&contractset=Crude%252520Light%252520Oil%252520Comp.%252520-%252520nymex
I agree. Perhaps the hedges are also too low. Still, their is a divergence here beyond either of those factors it seems to me.
DeleteYeah, and some insight from someone in the industry definitely shines some light on that reason.
DeleteI think the current subtle message of MOG is that margins are still too thin(I'm having difficulty reading this clearly). In that case, oil goes up and the margins increase or they continue producing based on "fun for no profit" prophecy if oil stalls and moves back down?
I dunno how high oil can go, but I have a feeling the price is being driven by media hype at the moment and in the near future a shorting opportunity is coming. Maybe today?
I also don't know what the status of JPM/MS/GS's industrial metals position is, but the CFTC commissioner has been saying something needs to change due to the monopoly they have established. Some think these three stooges will be forced to sell some of their assets, who knows.....
If investors don't believe higher prices are here to stay, they won't pay up for the energy producers. We saw that with the gold miners not going up with the price of gold when it spiked over $1,800 and the miners stayed down. Perhaps it is as simple as that more investors expect the price of oil to come back down than stay up.
DeleteStudy about the effects of rising rates on the market from Globe and Mail. Could be different this time because debt levels are higher, but I tend to think we see this as well. Likely behind the paywall, so here it is:
ReplyDeleteU.S. bond yields are on the rise, offering a potential threat to the stock market. But if a 2.8 per cent yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is a source of concern, what about a noticeably higher yield?
Brian Belski, the chief investment strategist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, believes the yield could rise as high as 4.5 per cent over the next several quarters. However, he believes that higher interest rates aren’t necessarily a bad thing for stocks. In fact, they could be good.
“Stock market performance is dictated by the pace of economic growth or inflation and not necessarily the level or trajectory of interest rates, in our view,” he said in a note.
He argues that investors are underestimating the resiliency of economic growth, while worries about inflation are overblown. The same goes for rising rates.
In fact, he noted higher interest rates coincide with higher-than-average stock market returns, a lower probability of negative returns and less volatility.
“Furthermore, some of the best and most consistent average returns have occurred when both nominal and real interest rates have risen from very low levels – as is currently the case,” he said.
Mr. Belski’s assurances come at an uncertain time for the stock market. The S&P 500 hit a record high near the start of August, but has since slumped nearly 4 per cent – largely over worries that the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing or QE, will wind down later this year, removing a powerful source of stimulus for the stock market in recent years.
At the same time, bond yields have been rising sharply, albeit from exceptionally low levels. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose as high as 2.89 per cent last week, up from just 1.63 per cent as recently as May.
Mr. Belski acknowledges that markets have been rattled by a potential change in Fed policy – a reaction that underscores his cautious assessment this year. He has been sticking to a year-end target of 1,575 for the S&P 500, or about 4 per cent below the current level.
But he remains enthusiastic about the U.S. economy and the stock market over the longer-term, and sees the uptick in bond yields as “normalization.”
He analyzed the performance of the S&P 500 under various interest-rate scenarios, going back to 1953. Low interest rates aren’t necessarily ideal conditions, given that they often come with sluggish economic growth. When yields are less than 6 per cent, the S&P 500 averaged a gain of 7.4 per cent over rolling one-year periods.
On the other hand, rising interest rates aren’t necessarily bad if the market is anticipating future economic growth. When yields are between 6 per cent and 8 per cent, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 8 per cent. And when yields are above 8 per cent, the average return rises to 11.2 per cent.
The trajectory of interest rates makes today’s environment look even better. When bond yields are declining, after taking inflation into account, the average return for the S&P 500 is 6.2 per cent, versus 11.2 per cent when yields are rising. And when real yields are rising and the real rate is below average, which is the situation facing investors today, the average return is an impressive 12.1 per cent.
Could bem the rates simply bounced off 1.63% ?
DeleteSyria - Agreed this isn't about Syria, at least I'm not convinced it has anything to do with it aside from being a convenient excuse.
ReplyDeleteI really think Icahn is in for a rude awakening with Apple. First of all, he can't muscle around a company of that size. Second, the company's iphones are no longer the it item amongst teens. Annd lastly, I think people underestimate just how important the Verizon launch was to their business and how it pulled forward years of future growth.
ReplyDeleteI think this latest move up was an opportunity to sell / get short the stock.
EXPE looks dirt cheap. Trades at 7.6 times 3 year avg free cash flow. They have 1.3 Billion in net cash and the market cap is $6.4 Billion. They also pay a 1.2% dividend that has doubled in the past 3 years. Could be a very interesting longer term play with the potential for significantly higher dividends. Their current dividend payout is only about 1/7th of annual free cash flow. Annual FCF has grown 100% in the past 5 years so if this happens again in the next 5 and they step up their payout rate to 1/3rd you could see a yield of 6 to 8% on today's price.
ReplyDeleteCP, we got a fundamental situation here which is overriding the technicals. That being the end of QE and normalization of rates and also probably the end of the 30 year bull market in interest rates.
ReplyDeleteThe key here is that rates almost certainly only rise if the economy improves and an improving economy should drive above average stock market returns.
Interesting chart:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/MktOutperform/status/372494909762072577/photo/1
So, if commodities are really starting to outperform the SPY, would be good for Canada. Canada was great to own in the mid-2000's. Some are saying the commodity supercycle has the large last push coming (like Nasdaq 1999). I would be not, but if we do, there are an awful lot of very cheap commodity stocks which will make a lot of money.
And, what happens when the FED stops paying interest on reserves, wouldn't that move increase incentive for banks to reach for yield elsewhere and thus step up lending?
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteREFG - ??????
ReplyDelete