Also been thinking the last couple of days about buying India through Indian Bank IBN, but not sure when this sell-off stops. At some point, their financial issues have to be fully priced in.
I have also added a little to my IWM puts just now, since today's rebound in IWM seems to be flattening out after recouping about half of yesterday's OPEN-to-CLOSE range. This is a natural rebound target and it might very well stop right here.
Investors were reaching for yield like crazy, and now it is coming undone. Basically, investors were moving from Treasuries to more risky alternatives, which is exactly what Bernanke wanted in his warped logic of generating the wealth effect by increasing the prices of risky assets. The piling into small caps was yet another, more extreme manifestation of investors looking to take on more risk. Now that whole move is coming undone, and it is hard to believe that IWM will not collapse like JNJ.
HYG has put in a lower high in mid-July (relative to early May), so this move away from risky assets has started stealthily a while ago...
CP -- I learned the hard way not to enter positions without a confirmation from the chart of your bias. The price is moved by things we don't know, rather than by things we know. So the chart has to confirm your thinking. If USO drops below late-July low, then the chart would be a screaming short.
2nd_ave -- thank you for your recommendation "Unfinished sky." Very good director's work and acting. The plot itself was pretty straightforward, though. But the director's work made it enjoyable nevertheless...
I find shorting in general to be very hard. Even if you are right and a stock should go down, you need to get the timing right (because of costs, dividend payments, margin requirements, risk of unlimited losses) and this often takes much longer than you'd think. With a long stock, it is easier to wait as the risks and costs are less.
Shorting with PUT's is even harder as you have to get the timing right on the stock going down and fight the costs of the time decay of the option.
I used to play puts and put spreads but gave up after reviewing how poorly I actually did with them. The only time I made money was in the tech downtrend of 2001.
I agree with you about the danger of using puts. That's why I used puts that are 6 months out and have also defined a clear stop out point for myself. If I am wrong, then that point will be reached in the next few days, and so my puts will experience almost no time decay. So I am using puts only to get more price leverage, given the very small amounts of cash I have on hand...
IWM -- here we go. :) I had a sense that that's how the mid-day flattening out of IWM would end -- people's nerves would give up and they would panic out of it...
The FED - We will, we won't, we are, we aren't....
This practice of teasing and not remaining firm with commitments creates too much confusion, the subject of making investments shouldn't be handled like its a f'in game.
RLGY - This one has fallen below it's neck line, starting to look like the FED's plan wasn't robust enough to accomplish much aside from prolonging agony.
The miners couldn't hold their shit together again today. Market trends up -- miners trend down. Market sells off, miners sell off harder. Market rebounds, miners drop even lower. WTF???
The game is to figure out people have already priced into a stock and get ahead of it. GDXJ up over 50% in the last 2 months - going to be a lot of people looking to see and lock in profits.
You know the old "buy the rumour, sell the news". The smart money got in as people were panicking a couple of months ago and are now getting out into the bullion strength, maybe in advance of a bullion pullback. Would not be a surprise given all the India issues this fall.
2nd_ave -- your rationale for opening a position in India ETF was that it was vastly oversold on the daily chart and your feeling that it would do well in the coming weeks. So why did you close your positions the same day you opened it, when the uptrend has possibly just begun??? What happened to you "When in doubt tough it out" thinking that TOF quoted today???
(c) SCIF was a different play. I'm not as comfortable holding Indian small caps. In fact, I probably wouldn't recognize a single name in the portfolio.
I meant to post this earlier but I got tied up in stuff. I'm going to be very busy over the next couple of days so I bailed on 60% of my TZA position at $27.25ish today. I'm also finding some things a bit too interesting in the internet space that I want to keep money in cash in the event I can get a really good buying opp...
actually i just decided to bail on the rest after hours at $27.25 to $27.34. just too much crap going on and i am sick of watching this thing go all over the place. and like i mentioned i'm seeing a few things i really like longer term that i just want to wait on.
i don't know if i told you guys but we decided we're going to be moving to Boston in the middle of September. my brother lives about 40 minutes west of the city and he has 3 kids aged 2 to 6 and we want to live near them for a little while at least. my wife is from orange county and her family all live close to us here in san diego so it will be a tough adjustment for her. i used to live in boston for 5 years so it's not a big one for me...plus i have lots of friends out there still. our son is turning 2 in a few months and we plan on having another one soon so we really want to get a bigger place with a yard and room for him (them) to run around. right now we live in a 950 square foot condo with a 8 x 10 ft patio. not exactly spacious. anyway, there's so much stuff we need to take care of before the move that i just wont have the time to do any trading other than a quick trade here or there unless something falls far enough that i find to be very enticing.
probably a dumb move to sell this as the market looks horribly weak but another thing that concerns me from the short side is the inability of the market to crack the small caps or the nasdaq below recent lows. those are two areas of strength for the market and they haven't given up the ghost.
by the way, david, don't take my move as thinking that the market is going to bounce. i still think any bounces should be sold into or shorted. i don't think we're out of the woods by a long shot.
I own airplane leasing company FLY and AYR is similar (although I haven't looked at it in detail). The airplane leasing business is pretty solid in the current economy. The interesting thing about FLY is it trades substantially under book value and, when they do sell a plane, it is generally over book, so implies the discount is even higher. FLY is also a smaller compamny with more leverage, so probably more upside (or downside!).
FLY has had a large pullback from $17 to $12 as they issued shares at the highs after a major acquistion last year, but their %%+ dividend is safe. I've been thinking of adding recently, but am just a bit concerned if there is something not known that required the refinancing other than trying to worry about as this company has been a very astute capital manager buying shares and debt low and I wonder if they are selling high.
Either way, I think airplane leasing is a good business. AIG is trying to sell theirs but it is too big for any purchaser, but I suspect that they are also distracted now and giving more opps to companies like AYR and FLY.
Placed on order this morning to close RYWVX at the 1030 am est trading window. Based on 1030 am est prices for EEM, it should close with a +3% (+/- a fraction) gain.
CP, do you know why BACML thinks FLY is overvalued?
Seems undervalued to me, but maybe I'm missing something. ReplyDelete Replies
1. ChickenpookieMay 1, 2013 at 6:51 PM
Here's much of what they said:
"March 10,13 - Staying on sidelines, modest pressure on margins/revenues Despite seemingly inexpensive valuations, we remain on the sidelines regarding the aircraft leasing equities. Lease rates have generally trended lower over the past year, and we see little reason for upside over the next six months, but a protracted period of low rates tends to support long-lived assets like aircraft. We maintain a Buy rating for AerCap (AER), Neutral ratings for Aircastle (AYR) and Air Lease Corporation (AL), and an Underperform rating for Fly Leasing (FLY). Currently, there are too many planes The number of competitive parked planes has rarely been higher, aircraft hourly utilization is well below peak levels, airline profitability outside the US is below its anemic long-term average, and lease rate growth has been anemic – all indications that there are currently too many planes. With planned record deliveries over the next few years, excess supply may persist unless economic activity accelerates or jet fuel prices fall significantly.
Headline risks decrease as airlines move into peak season After several years of below average bankruptcies, the number of airlines ceasing service has returned to trend (25 a year). Airline cash flows are seasonally lowest in the fall and winter quarters when more than 60% of all airline shutdowns occur, and headline risk diminishes as we move into peak spring and summer months.
Debt capital markets remain friendly Fears about the availability of capital have proven unfounded as Asian and US banks replaced reduced funding from European financial institutions, and the US public markets (EETCs for airlines, unsecured debt for lessors) reopened. Managements return more cash to shareholders
AER accelerated its share buyback program, AL initiated a dividend, AYR raised its dividend and repurchased stock, and FLY further lifted its sector-high dividend yield (6%). Management actions show their confidence in the underlying value of their shares, yet financial sponsors are reducing their exposure to the sector."
VIX is slowly creeping up. I think it's interesting that the VIX readings of late have only gradually risen during this pullback. It is well over the 200 DMA now...not sure yet what to make of this...but I suspect it means this selloff isn't over yet.
Broke my own rule yesterday of adding to a position soon after opening at a *worse* price (I first shorted IWM at $101.90 and then added to my puts yesterday at $101.30). I am paying for that cockiness now, since I am out of cash and I cannot add to my position at a *better* price than the original bunch...
I am not panicking out of my IWM puts yet, because SPY has merely rebounded to the level of mid-August lows. I saw a chart of DOW during 1929, and after breaking each previous low, DOW has rebounded EVERY TIME to retest that low from the downside, then got rejected and then dropped to new lows. So there is a chance that SPY gets rejected right at the current level.
EBAY - LOL, wants me to upgrade my browser, I guess they need me to do that for them just so they can fill every corner of my screen with revenue-generating advertisements.
Well, if emerging markets printed to buy US debt and now they're selling to keep their currencies from crashing, then they're probably not quite out of the woods yet?
I have no idea if thie the phenomenon at work, but it's the only one I've picked up on and maybe the move is already done? It sucks when you live under an investment rock.
I picked up some OSTK at $29.15 avg...this is the one I was referring to in the internet space that I was saying looks very cheap despite a huge runup over the past year. They trade at around 16 times trailing twelve months free cash flow, revenues are growing pretty rapidly and the best part is they don't have even have operations up and running yet in Europe. I'd estimate that they generate 30% of their traffic to their site from people in Europe and for years they never took orders from those people. Well, they recently announced that they are going to be opening up European operations. I think this could be a $100 stock over time.
I think both should do well. CTCT is more beaten down and probably more apt to rally in the short term. It's basically a takeover candidate but it's pretty cheap as well for the internet space. Something changed fundamentally with OSTK a couple of quarters ago. Revenues started growing and gross margins started ramping up. If you extend the 22% top line growth from last quarter over the 2012 numbers and assume 20% gross margins (amt from last quarter and up from 18% a few quarters ago) and assume a 10% increase in SG&A over the trailing twelve months then you could arrive at almost $2.50 to $3 EPS. For a fast growing internet stock, what is the typical p/e ratio? 40?
Yahoo thinks I'm in Altoona PA, LOL... MSFT - Hey Ballmer - Why is it any error message in Windows doesn't tell you which application generated it and why?
I know we have discussed this one before, but GRVY is currently valued at $31 Million and has $45 Million in cash. Book value is $76 Million of which $19 million are intangible assets. I know they have a majority shareholder that is based in Japan I believe which may add to some issues with extracting value but jeez it's selling below cash by a good margin and in the last quarter it only lost $900k.
Japanese GungHo has also upped it's ownership of GRVY to almost 60%. They are larger than ZNGA, so could scoop up the rest of GRVY easily. I guess the real question is how good all the new Ragnarok and other games will do. It's the fact that I really have no way of judging this that keeps me away, but it certainly seems like it could be a good winner.
Interesting 2nd.
ReplyDeleteAlso been thinking the last couple of days about buying India through Indian Bank IBN, but not sure when this sell-off stops. At some point, their financial issues have to be fully priced in.
Good luck with today being the day!
Hmmm....
DeleteAdded EEM @ 37.25.
ReplyDeleteShooters on a roll...
DeleteChips on RYWVX @ the 1030 am trading window.
DeleteEPI - Nice work, I'm curious as to what prompted the urge(not saying it's wrong, saying it's working!).
ReplyDeleteI think India is vastly oversold here. Infosys, Tata Motors, large Indian banks> these are companies that will do well going forward.
DeleteI hadn't looked at TTM in a while, I like this idea.
DeleteARR - Out @ $4.12, hit my stop
ReplyDelete1639.43 is also last week's low, so that's the resistance, I guess.
ReplyDeleteShorting this market is not easy...
ReplyDeleteTOF -- are you still holding your TZA?
Notice that during today's rebound, IWM is lagging SPY so far, suggesting that the hot money is still very cautious...
David - What did 2nd say on 8/23/13?
DeleteSo I take it you are still in TZA, right? :)
DeleteI have also added a little to my IWM puts just now, since today's rebound in IWM seems to be flattening out after recouping about half of yesterday's OPEN-to-CLOSE range. This is a natural rebound target and it might very well stop right here.
WTF, what happened to the tremendous tug of war we were blind-sided by yesterday?
ReplyDeleteTake a look at the monthly chart of JNJ. Tell me that's not a parabolic blowoff top. At one point this year it was up 20 weeks in a row.
ReplyDeleteInvestors were reaching for yield like crazy, and now it is coming undone. Basically, investors were moving from Treasuries to more risky alternatives, which is exactly what Bernanke wanted in his warped logic of generating the wealth effect by increasing the prices of risky assets. The piling into small caps was yet another, more extreme manifestation of investors looking to take on more risk. Now that whole move is coming undone, and it is hard to believe that IWM will not collapse like JNJ.
DeleteHYG has put in a lower high in mid-July (relative to early May), so this move away from risky assets has started stealthily a while ago...
I'm kinda salivating over the idea of shorting WTIC, wouldn't that make sense at this point?
DeleteCP -- I learned the hard way not to enter positions without a confirmation from the chart of your bias. The price is moved by things we don't know, rather than by things we know. So the chart has to confirm your thinking. If USO drops below late-July low, then the chart would be a screaming short.
DeleteUnloaded half the EPI @ 13.575. Unloaded SCIF (India small caps, opened around 22.33) @ 23.15.
ReplyDeleteNice days work!
Delete2nd_ave -- thank you for your recommendation "Unfinished sky." Very good director's work and acting. The plot itself was pretty straightforward, though. But the director's work made it enjoyable nevertheless...
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteI find shorting in general to be very hard. Even if you are right and a stock should go down, you need to get the timing right (because of costs, dividend payments, margin requirements, risk of unlimited losses) and this often takes much longer than you'd think. With a long stock, it is easier to wait as the risks and costs are less.
Shorting with PUT's is even harder as you have to get the timing right on the stock going down and fight the costs of the time decay of the option.
I used to play puts and put spreads but gave up after reviewing how poorly I actually did with them. The only time I made money was in the tech downtrend of 2001.
I'm in complete agreement with BB. I stopped options trading for this very reason. I was wasting hard earned money.
DeleteI agree with you about the danger of using puts. That's why I used puts that are 6 months out and have also defined a clear stop out point for myself. If I am wrong, then that point will be reached in the next few days, and so my puts will experience almost no time decay. So I am using puts only to get more price leverage, given the very small amounts of cash I have on hand...
DeleteDavid - I've found that several 5 to 15% gains, when added up, will always outperform the occasional home run from options.
DeleteIWM -- here we go. :) I had a sense that that's how the mid-day flattening out of IWM would end -- people's nerves would give up and they would panic out of it...
ReplyDeleteBAC - Cash/share is $54, LOL...
ReplyDeleteThe FED - We will, we won't, we are, we aren't....
ReplyDeleteThis practice of teasing and not remaining firm with commitments creates too much confusion, the subject of making investments shouldn't be handled like its a f'in game.
Let freedom ring from Stone Mountain of Georgia.
ReplyDeleteCNBC Editors Pick: "Forget Syria, it's time to short gold: Trader"
ReplyDeleteI guess this means gold retests the all time high.
RLGY - This one has fallen below it's neck line, starting to look like the FED's plan wasn't robust enough to accomplish much aside from prolonging agony.
ReplyDeleteThe miners couldn't hold their shit together again today. Market trends up -- miners trend down. Market sells off, miners sell off harder. Market rebounds, miners drop even lower. WTF???
ReplyDeleteHell, maybe they're going to zero! Pass that vodka with pine needles in it, this BS show is driving me nutz.
DeleteThe game is to figure out people have already priced into a stock and get ahead of it. GDXJ up over 50% in the last 2 months - going to be a lot of people looking to see and lock in profits.
DeleteYou know the old "buy the rumour, sell the news". The smart money got in as people were panicking a couple of months ago and are now getting out into the bullion strength, maybe in advance of a bullion pullback. Would not be a surprise given all the India issues this fall.
A stock that I consider to be cheap and a definite takeover candidate is CTCT. It has held up very well.
ReplyDelete2nd_ave -- your rationale for opening a position in India ETF was that it was vastly oversold on the daily chart and your feeling that it would do well in the coming weeks. So why did you close your positions the same day you opened it, when the uptrend has possibly just begun??? What happened to you "When in doubt tough it out" thinking that TOF quoted today???
ReplyDelete(a) That's why I'm still long 50% of the original position.
Delete(b) I'm still long Emerging Markets.
(c) SCIF was a different play. I'm not as comfortable holding Indian small caps. In fact, I probably wouldn't recognize a single name in the portfolio.
DeleteI meant to post this earlier but I got tied up in stuff. I'm going to be very busy over the next couple of days so I bailed on 60% of my TZA position at $27.25ish today. I'm also finding some things a bit too interesting in the internet space that I want to keep money in cash in the event I can get a really good buying opp...
ReplyDeleteWhat was your basis on TZA, tof?
Deleteactually i just decided to bail on the rest after hours at $27.25 to $27.34. just too much crap going on and i am sick of watching this thing go all over the place. and like i mentioned i'm seeing a few things i really like longer term that i just want to wait on.
Deletei don't know if i told you guys but we decided we're going to be moving to Boston in the middle of September. my brother lives about 40 minutes west of the city and he has 3 kids aged 2 to 6 and we want to live near them for a little while at least. my wife is from orange county and her family all live close to us here in san diego so it will be a tough adjustment for her. i used to live in boston for 5 years so it's not a big one for me...plus i have lots of friends out there still. our son is turning 2 in a few months and we plan on having another one soon so we really want to get a bigger place with a yard and room for him (them) to run around. right now we live in a 950 square foot condo with a 8 x 10 ft patio. not exactly spacious. anyway, there's so much stuff we need to take care of before the move that i just wont have the time to do any trading other than a quick trade here or there unless something falls far enough that i find to be very enticing.
probably a dumb move to sell this as the market looks horribly weak but another thing that concerns me from the short side is the inability of the market to crack the small caps or the nasdaq below recent lows. those are two areas of strength for the market and they haven't given up the ghost.
my basis was $26.5.
DeleteBoston is a great place, about as different (culturally and geographically) as it gets compared to San Diego.
Deleteyeah i love it there and miss it a lot.
Deleteby the way, david, don't take my move as thinking that the market is going to bounce. i still think any bounces should be sold into or shorted. i don't think we're out of the woods by a long shot.
Opened GDX @ 28.45 after hours.
ReplyDeleteGood move TOF. A lot more work required to monitor shorts than longs in my experience. Plus, even if we have a bear, the right stocks will do well.
ReplyDeleteCVV - Interesting.
ReplyDeleteALDW - Is the beating done yet?
ReplyDeleteAYR - Director has been buying up shares, owns $200M now.
ReplyDeleteThat sounds pretty good, don't you think?
I own airplane leasing company FLY and AYR is similar (although I haven't looked at it in detail). The airplane leasing business is pretty solid in the current economy. The interesting thing about FLY is it trades substantially under book value and, when they do sell a plane, it is generally over book, so implies the discount is even higher. FLY is also a smaller compamny with more leverage, so probably more upside (or downside!).
DeleteFLY has had a large pullback from $17 to $12 as they issued shares at the highs after a major acquistion last year, but their %%+ dividend is safe. I've been thinking of adding recently, but am just a bit concerned if there is something not known that required the refinancing other than trying to worry about as this company has been a very astute capital manager buying shares and debt low and I wonder if they are selling high.
Either way, I think airplane leasing is a good business. AIG is trying to sell theirs but it is too big for any purchaser, but I suspect that they are also distracted now and giving more opps to companies like AYR and FLY.
Thanks for the feedback, BB!
DeleteTOF -- when are you expecting a second baby? Congratulations!
ReplyDeleteEEM off premarket @ 37.95 (+1.9%).
ReplyDeleteUS Rates have increased in large part due to foreign countries selling to support their currencies?
ReplyDeleteCKH - Wow, Shoulda, coulda....
ReplyDeleteBWEN - C&H Breakout?
ReplyDeleteRe-entered TZA at $26.64.
ReplyDeletePlaced on order this morning to close RYWVX at the 1030 am est trading window. Based on 1030 am est prices for EEM, it should close with a +3% (+/- a fraction) gain.
ReplyDeleteawesome!
Delete1641 - The line in the sand
ReplyDeleteJust for you CP.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.squirrelunderpants.com/
Great for those years when it's tough to find a place to hide your nuts!
DeleteKeep your eye on bonds. I think they crash this afternoon. Added to TZA at $26.3
ReplyDeleteSo much for the trading sabbatical.
DeleteThat means rates go up, and mREIT's get whacked.
DeleteI'll wait for it.
could be totally wrong on this. Why is the VIX only down 1%?
DeleteAER/FLY/AYE - Found a post while doing some DD:
ReplyDeleteBB CanadaMay 1, 2013 at 6:10 PM
CP, do you know why BACML thinks FLY is overvalued?
Seems undervalued to me, but maybe I'm missing something.
ReplyDelete
Replies
1.
ChickenpookieMay 1, 2013 at 6:51 PM
Here's much of what they said:
"March 10,13 - Staying on sidelines, modest pressure on margins/revenues Despite seemingly inexpensive valuations, we remain on the sidelines regarding the aircraft leasing equities. Lease rates have generally trended lower over the past year, and we see little reason for upside over the next six months, but a protracted period of low rates tends to support long-lived assets like aircraft. We maintain a Buy rating for AerCap (AER), Neutral ratings for Aircastle (AYR) and
Air Lease Corporation (AL), and an Underperform rating for Fly Leasing (FLY).
Currently, there are too many planes The number of competitive parked planes has rarely been higher, aircraft hourly utilization is well below peak levels, airline profitability outside the US is below its anemic long-term average, and lease rate growth has been anemic – all indications that there are currently too many planes. With planned record deliveries over the next few years, excess supply may persist unless economic activity accelerates or jet fuel prices fall significantly.
Headline risks decrease as airlines move into peak season
After several years of below average bankruptcies, the number of airlines ceasing service has returned to trend (25 a year). Airline cash flows are seasonally lowest in the fall and winter quarters when more than 60% of all airline shutdowns occur, and headline risk diminishes as we move into peak spring and summer months.
Debt capital markets remain friendly
Fears about the availability of capital have proven unfounded as Asian and US banks replaced reduced funding from European financial institutions, and the US public markets (EETCs for airlines, unsecured debt for lessors) reopened.
Managements return more cash to shareholders
AER accelerated its share buyback program, AL initiated a dividend, AYR raised its dividend and repurchased stock, and FLY further lifted its sector-high dividend yield (6%). Management actions show their confidence in the underlying value of their shares, yet financial sponsors are reducing their exposure to the sector."
Why is the VIX down 1% while the market is ripping? Something is fishy here. Short SPY at $164.80
ReplyDeleteThe fishy feeling you're detecting is, computer algos reaching into your pockets to play with your nuts.
DeleteClosed GDX @ 28.35. Wuss. Opened yesterday @ 28.45. Should have waited a few more minutes.
ReplyDeleteWhatever the big fu^^ing problem was, it seems to have abated. Or, there are too many trusting soles out there venturing back into the Piranha pool.
ReplyDeleteClosed EPI @ 13.68. Forget the 'core' position. Back to 100% cash.
ReplyDeleteVIX is slowly creeping up. I think it's interesting that the VIX readings of late have only gradually risen during this pullback. It is well over the 200 DMA now...not sure yet what to make of this...but I suspect it means this selloff isn't over yet.
ReplyDeleteBroke my own rule yesterday of adding to a position soon after opening at a *worse* price (I first shorted IWM at $101.90 and then added to my puts yesterday at $101.30). I am paying for that cockiness now, since I am out of cash and I cannot add to my position at a *better* price than the original bunch...
ReplyDeleteI am not panicking out of my IWM puts yet, because SPY has merely rebounded to the level of mid-August lows. I saw a chart of DOW during 1929, and after breaking each previous low, DOW has rebounded EVERY TIME to retest that low from the downside, then got rejected and then dropped to new lows. So there is a chance that SPY gets rejected right at the current level.
ReplyDeleteEBAY - LOL, wants me to upgrade my browser, I guess they need me to do that for them just so they can fill every corner of my screen with revenue-generating advertisements.
ReplyDeleteF-'em!
Well, if emerging markets printed to buy US debt and now they're selling to keep their currencies from crashing, then they're probably not quite out of the woods yet?
ReplyDeleteI have no idea if thie the phenomenon at work, but it's the only one I've picked up on and maybe the move is already done? It sucks when you live under an investment rock.
$WTIC - IH&S with head mid April has met it's target, seems like. Seriously, how much higher can oil go, I have doubts.
ReplyDeleteI cashed in all of the TZA and SPY short at about breakeven...
ReplyDeleteI picked up some OSTK at $29.15 avg...this is the one I was referring to in the internet space that I was saying looks very cheap despite a huge runup over the past year. They trade at around 16 times trailing twelve months free cash flow, revenues are growing pretty rapidly and the best part is they don't have even have operations up and running yet in Europe. I'd estimate that they generate 30% of their traffic to their site from people in Europe and for years they never took orders from those people. Well, they recently announced that they are going to be opening up European operations. I think this could be a $100 stock over time.
ReplyDeleteYou like that one better than CTCT? I was concentrating on watching CTCT.
DeleteI think both should do well. CTCT is more beaten down and probably more apt to rally in the short term. It's basically a takeover candidate but it's pretty cheap as well for the internet space. Something changed fundamentally with OSTK a couple of quarters ago. Revenues started growing and gross margins started ramping up. If you extend the 22% top line growth from last quarter over the 2012 numbers and assume 20% gross margins (amt from last quarter and up from 18% a few quarters ago) and assume a 10% increase in SG&A over the trailing twelve months then you could arrive at almost $2.50 to $3 EPS. For a fast growing internet stock, what is the typical p/e ratio? 40?
DeleteGood thing we didn't short CRM.
ReplyDeleteOh great, now ya tell me!!!!!!
Delete10yr - Looks like price just gaped down....
ReplyDeleteYahoo thinks I'm in Altoona PA, LOL...
ReplyDeleteMSFT - Hey Ballmer - Why is it any error message in Windows doesn't tell you which application generated it and why?
"Connection was reset, check internet connection"
Looks like CP was right about shorting WTIC. Now, however, I'm considering a position in USO.
ReplyDeleteI know we have discussed this one before, but GRVY is currently valued at $31 Million and has $45 Million in cash. Book value is $76 Million of which $19 million are intangible assets. I know they have a majority shareholder that is based in Japan I believe which may add to some issues with extracting value but jeez it's selling below cash by a good margin and in the last quarter it only lost $900k.
ReplyDeleteJapanese GungHo has also upped it's ownership of GRVY to almost 60%. They are larger than ZNGA, so could scoop up the rest of GRVY easily. I guess the real question is how good all the new Ragnarok and other games will do. It's the fact that I really have no way of judging this that keeps me away, but it certainly seems like it could be a good winner.
DeleteBulls need 1647
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Getting pretty low, how do we feel about this one lately?
ReplyDelete