Sunday, September 15, 2013
09/15/13 The Big Picture
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1533818/plotsummary?ref_=tt_ov_pl
The above is my latest recommendation for downloading from NFLX. A successful lawyer loses everything, which ironically gives him the balls (an actual quote from the film) to live the life he's always wanted.
A lesson for us here? Sure. I'll let you figure it out for yourselves.
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holy sh*t anyone see the futures?
ReplyDeleteWhen the world's stock markets go up 1% in total value on the account of you withdrawing from consideration of a job that's gotta have an impact on you mentally right?
DeleteAndrew Busch @abusch
DeleteThis Summers news and Syrian send stocks to new highs http://bloom.bg/16aNDS8 via @BloombergNews
The impact could be experienced in many different ways on many different levels. For Summers, it probably further inflates his ego, knowing a decision he announced had repercussions around the globe.
DeleteI would remain alert for all kinds of cross currents. Gold/silver could spike either way on the news. Futures can easily reverse by morning. Bond prices might be the most reliable barometer.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I'm comfortably holding cash and hoping to take advantage of any favorable setups that catch my attention.
DeleteWhat...what??? Did Summers say something about GMO?
ReplyDeleteI've been there, bro. Aliens could be landing, and my only concern would be the effect on gold prices.
DeleteThat's funny man! For such a small position it's like water torture.
DeleteWell, the general consensus was that Summers would move to withdraw QE and so now he's withdrawn, the thought is it's less likely, right?
ReplyDeleteNot sure how that could necessarily be bad for equities market since it's generally thought monetary easing has been an elixir?
mREITs - Wonder why most of these rallied last week, and notice that the 10yr only reached 3% or so, my target was 3.15%
ReplyDeleteOkay, so rates are still low and it's really hard to argue they should stay this way, right?
I'm actually really glad Summers is out. What a joke he really is.
ReplyDeleteSummers would have been a bad, politicized appointment. Not sure why Obama doesn't seem to like Yellen though as she is very dovish.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see who the new alternative choice is. Obama doesn't want to have no options.
I think it's likely Yellen. Not sure where the Obama dislike comes from? Wasn't aware of that so you have me questioning myself again as usual.
DeleteIf not, then Donald Cohen?
DeleteIf anyone still has faith in Hussman as a market timer, this guy has a great chart showing when he started his "overvalued" thesis:
ReplyDeletehttp://oldprof.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451ddb269e2019aff5b2273970d-popup
CP,
ReplyDeleteYou were asking about rates. From Hulbert:
Yet there is no consistent historical relationship between interest rates and the stock market, says Javier Estrada, a professor of finance at the IESE Business School in Barcelona.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-interest-rates-rise-should-you-sell-stocks-2013-09-13?link=MW_story_investinginsight
I'm not sure I put much stock in much of anything that comes from Hulbert, my own DD indicates rates do have an effect.
DeleteI won't bother discussing why, unless you want to.
Birinyi says we’re heading to S&P 2000
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/birinyi-says-were-heading-to-sp-2000-2013-09-13?pagenumber=1
Makes a lot of sense to me
It looks that way, if you believe the IH&S plays out.
DeleteFLR & NuScale Power are building the scalable small nuclear reactors together, apparently. With backing from Rolls Royce as well.
ReplyDeleteMy only comment this morning is, 'Fools rush in where angels fear to tread.'
ReplyDeleteBeyond this point there be OGRes.
DeleteI guess if you are a breakout style trader, you would like today's action, but I really don't think there are many of those left anymore.
DeleteSeems that we will make a new high in the SPY over the next few weeks, but not sure how you trade that and get out before the next market drop.
I agree.
DeleteThe problem is breakouts tend to fail and the breakout is on top of a V shaped recovery that takes a lot of capital to keep going.
It would take a pretty good push into new highs and a decent pullback to get me interested, but even then it would be a chancy entry.
Yeah, I'm sorry but I have huge difficulty with trusting breakouts. My other problem is trusting breakdowns will reverse, so place me on the next to clueless list where I belong.
DeleteCP, probably shouldn't have said Obama dislikes Yellen. He wanted Summers and he seemed to be one of the few and most others seem to want Yellen, so it was probably more of a Obama wanting his guy than specifically disliking Yellen.
ReplyDelete"He wanted Summers and he seemed to be one of the few "
DeleteDang, WTF is wrong with that man, I'm real surprised to hear this...... Summers is pro-TBTF, so WTF! :(
Shades of AUMN - Anglo American is walking away from Northern Dynasty's (NAK) Pebble Beach project after investing $500 million. Pebble is supposed to be the richest undeveloped copper/gold deposit in the world, but it's in an environmentally sensitive part of Alaska, so tough to develop. AUMN has a huge silver deposit, but hard to develop for them due to low grade.
ReplyDeleteThis is tough for NAK shareholders (stock down 30%), but it's what we need to see to get excess supply out of the mining market so we can get a sustainable bottom.
You're hitting on at least 6 of 8 concerning PM's, and more, so I take notice.
DeleteMy ears just popped, are you guys thinking of shorting today's enthusiasm or is it too late?
ReplyDeleteA few hundy trading the bounce in GDX. Enough to justify my existence as a trader.
ReplyDelete"Enough to justify my existence as a trader."
DeleteThis is my problem when there is no trend.
Not shorting, but sold that CCL (carnival cruises that I bought back in April for $33.30 when they were getting all the bad PR. Getting things going seems to be taking longer and stock really isn't that cheap, even on next year's earnings. Made over 10%, so can't complain and raises cash for other opps.
ReplyDeleteI think they're tipping over that boat today.
DeleteYeah, I knew they were close - can't remember how much of that they are paying for versus the insurance company, but a lot of things could go wrong with that too I'd imagine.
DeleteJust as they're righting the ship and should be smooth sailing going forward, no better reason than that to sell.
DeleteSummers' withdrawal seems to have hit a nerve with NYer's considering they're already down here gunning down civil servants.
ReplyDeleteHad to do what I always do in situations like this..Transferred more cashola into the brokerage account. So there.
ReplyDeleteUmm, I thought the plan was to transfer cashola in the other direction perpetually?
DeleteI guess I must be missing out on some opportunity here.........?
I suppose that is good. But it is in some money market fund which could go bang. I prefer a credit union savings account. Not much return but then again I am not trading this year.
ReplyDeleteOUTR - Has this one hit the wall and didn't stick?
ReplyDeleteI still say that Carl Icahn should have sold all of his holdings in everything the day he went to Twitter. AAPL taking it on the chin.
ReplyDeleteI think AAPL is about to rally, it had a technical date with $450 and $447 was the support level that needed to hold. It's trading in a range, or so goes the chart theory.
DeleteBRKR - Also involved in the MANF analysis game.
ReplyDeleteJapan - Shut down it's last reactor yesterday, but some say it's a headfake and there have been 12 applying to restart.
ReplyDeleteThen there's the modular reactors, which are quite similar to those the US uses to power nuclear ships....
URG - What do you guys think, worth a shot?
ReplyDeleteBombardier - Seadoo division announced a new low cost jetski model today, seems to be quite a bit of excitement over it.
ReplyDeleteAfter Summers comes Fall in front end rates.
ReplyDeleteLooks like he never really had a chance, to me:
Delete"Earlier this weekend, reports circulated that a fourth Democratic member of the
Senate Banking Committee would not support Summers if nominated. This
Committee would have to affirm any Fed nominee by a simple majority vote; there
are 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans on the Committee."
This was put out by a fund company, so take it for what its worth (I always wonder when they get the grammar wrong in the first 10 sentences of an article!):
ReplyDelete"An study by several California and Chinese professors found that over a 15 year period only about 1% of traders are consistently profitable. Note that doesn’t mean they beat the market; it just means they actually made money."
http://us2.campaign-archive.com/?u=3734d874e292a28b94fc7f1ef&id=909cc7f9ed&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
Interesting article though on your competition as a short term trader these days.
Also shows the strong group of traders on this site too!
DeleteI believe that studies show 90% lose their butts rather quickly.
DeleteOpened AGQ at 20.43...
ReplyDeleteOff 20.58...
DeleteGGN - I see this chart's IH&S and can't help wonder if PM's are about to take off for the moon.
ReplyDelete'several California and Chinese professors'... that's just a couple of dudes at a bar.
ReplyDeleteTrue, but were they drawing on paper napkins?
DeleteHaha - probably and just asking the other guys in the bar if they've made any money on stocks.
DeleteARO - Taking half off here, preserving the 20% gain.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so now's there's a fresh infusion of disposable income, what's Mark buying today?
My hands are tied. I'm trying to find something TOF likes that I do too.
DeleteI'm busily tarring and feathering myself this morning.
DeleteLooks like you live in town.
DeletePOT - What are you smoking today?
ReplyDeleteJPM - 10yr rate will move up, to between 3.5 and 4% I didn't catch the time horizon, LOL....
ReplyDeleteWouldn't surprise me if it was quite soon, maybe even before year end. Now that QE is probably ending and the economy is improving and the bond bull is likely over, we should get bounce pretty quickly to a more "normal" level.
DeleteI'd consider the last 2 years of bond pricing a mo-mo top where people took bond prices far above where they should have been and now we are seeing the downside of that.
Take a look at long term charts to see how out of place the last 2 years of bond pricing has been.
I don't disagree, I'm not qualified to. Seems to me though, there's been quite a bit of buying at 3% though, and the commercials have been loading up, whoever they are:
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=d1
JO - Gimme a cup!
ReplyDeleteIn the 'seriously?' category... Kendra get's her second start in today's BB game. And Dad didn't think she's make the team!
ReplyDeleteCan someone that short actually shoot baskets?
DeleteJO - This is the knockout move today, right?
ReplyDeleteAA - Looks like it wants to move up almost, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteBeen thinking about AA. Fundamentally, I think it makes some sense as they are a reasonable cost producer, are building a lowest-cost plant in the middle east, expensive China aluminum seems to be cutting back, and demand should be increasing with the high auto and airplane sales.
DeleteBut, on the other hand, it is Alcoa...
Could be, I just have this idea in my head that China has been acquiring and begun exploiting natural resource reserves in Mongolia, for some reason.
DeleteDOO.TO - The new affordable jet ski is priced around $5k, considerably less than previous BOAT-sized jetskis, is around 90hp and I think will be a hot selling four stroke jetski.
ReplyDeleteOrder yours today!
All the Fast Money lunch guys seem pretty positive on the markets post tomorrow's fed meeting.
ReplyDeleteWill be a "buy the news event".
"May be be a short, fast pullback on the initial read, but people will see as positive and buy that"
Makes me wonder if the buying the last week into this wasn't the "buy the rumour" period.
Having said that, they did call the AAPL pullback correctly last week.
In that case, 1710 is the likely target.
DeleteUA - Removed from USA1 list.
ReplyDelete1705 - Bull territory
ReplyDeleteEPI - Could be IH&S formation, huh?
ReplyDeleteGMO - Really flies when Mark's buying all day!
ReplyDeleteCP- This is Wo, my 4th grader. She's a proud member of the 10% club... bottom 10% in height and weight. But she can kick Kendra's butt!!
ReplyDelete-2.45%...That's my total port return over the last 3 months. Crikes....It's felt like -22.45%!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAt least it was for a good cause, and you could make that up in just one day!
DeleteBALT - Lots of volume today.
ReplyDeleteAGEN - Island reversal play, done!
ReplyDeleteBERY - Somebody GTFO!
ReplyDeleteSDS - Sitting right at 52wk low again.
ReplyDeleteIt should. I just checked UKK which I bought 'near' the lows. It's up 540% right now. Not much decay there either.
DeleteI don't recall you buying that one, LOL!
Delete@RyanDetrick take a peak at a 10yr chart of listings on NYSE (number of companies) it's down significantly. Lots of $ chasing fewer shares
ReplyDeleteInteresting.
That would help explain the newest highs, I guess. So did they go BK or private?
DeleteI don't know, but my $'s would be the bulk went BK or were absorbed.
DeleteALDW - Wonder when the selling stops....
ReplyDeletehey guys i know you were worried about me i just wanted to check in from colorado and say everything is ok so far. can't post from the road but good luck today on taper day.
ReplyDeleteI was!
DeleteColorado, in a moving van?
Delete13G Filing from Deerfield's James Flynn Shows 7.16% Stake in NSPH.
ReplyDeleteThat ought to help, wish I understood the difference between gold spheres and plastic ones, but I'd tend to believe gold has specific optical properties.
DeleteAUMN- I know they're part of a 10B5-1, but sheesh...
ReplyDeleteSEEMS to be going the way of APEX Dunno what's an 10B5-1 but doesn't sound good.
DeleteWell at least I get a good laugh this AM....
ReplyDeleteThe Bull and the Tootsie Roll
"The Ps had a decent day, gaining nearly ½%. This action has them just shy of all-time highs. This, as Martha would say, is a good thing. Net net though, the index really hasn't made much forward progress in over 4 months. Plot the Ps and notice that they are just slightly above their May peak.
Ideally, you know me, I'd like to see them blast higher and not look back for a while. This would negate the potential top(s) and other things that I have been concerned about such as the "V" shaped recovery at high levels.
The Quack is a different story. It gained 3/4%. This action has it closing at multi-year highs. So far, its minor breakout remains intact.
Internally, things are a little mixed. Many areas, like the Ps, have formed "V" shaped recoveries. This doesn't mean that they can't continue higher, it just suggests that they are already overbought.
As you would imagine based on the Quack's performance, there are selected technology areas such as the Semis and Biotech that are making new highs/closing highs.
I suppose the elephant in the room is the Fed. I think I liked the old secretive Fed much better. The one where you would find out in a report what they did 6-months ago. I am a chart dude, so I don't want to digress too far. With that said, I think the Fed has painted themselves into a corner with the free and easy money. Now they have to figure out a way to back off without upsetting the financial markets-to avoid the proverbial "Tootsie Roll" in the punch bowl. Good luck with that.
When the market is in a rip roaring bull market you just go after most anything that's trending. Life is easy. Unfortunately, we are not in that type of market now. You have to choose your spots carefully. Take things on a setup-by-setup basis. At this juncture, I prefer stocks that can trade contra to the overall market and/or those that appear to be in developing trends vs. mature ones. With that said, I'm still seeing some setups in selected Industrial Metals.
Once again, I would be leery of stocks that are in extended trends. This sort of goes against my trend following mantra. My concern with these stocks is that if the market doesn't follow through, the bigger they are, the harder they could fall. And if the market does follow through, they could become a source of funds. Now, if we get into a rip roaring bull market, then bring 'em on-the stronger the better.
So what do we do? Again, continue to take things on a setup-by-setup basis. If you really like a setup, then take it. Just make sure you wait for entries. As I preach, that, in and of itself, can often keep you out of trouble. Markets are like life, it's a good idea to stay out of as much trouble as possible.
Futures are flat pre-market."
Wonder how regional banks come out? Considering Yellen is more of a peoples and end of Summers is a blow to TBTF
DeleteInvariably these things never turn out like we suspect, right? If it's Yellen then it "may" be more dovish but rates have to rise and sooner or later we get a turd in the ol' punch bowl.
DeleteI bet it's a Christmas gift.
Just think how quickly the party ends when that turd floats to the top if there's one in there, while everyone runs for the bathroom puking and gagging.
Delete1707 is the gap fill, 1705.5 is the resistance to get us there.
ReplyDeleteGLD, GDX and GDXJ all seem to have failed to take the June highs and heading down again. Plus with the US Government seeming to get their budgets back under control and the Fed tapering, seems like it was just a technical bounce.
ReplyDeletePlus, I was golfing yesterday with one of my gold bug friends and he just couldn't believe that stocks were going up and gold was going down - he was sure the pullback last month was the beginning of a crash into the fall. All good signs that the bull market in stocks and the bear in gold continues.
Yep, PM's actually bounced a bit higher that I expected. Recall the last debt limit increase reaction though, not likely to repeat again, is it? I have doubts concerning a repeat due to the point you made, and Summers was an advocate of infrastructure spending, which would have perhaps added to debt but that aspect becomes too murky for me to think through.
DeleteI don't quite understand how the debt is decreasing when it seems like spending is up and receipts haven't recovered fully, except perhaps due to the FED's enhanced level of monetization which if balanced correctly(seems to be) simply would offset disinflation.
Remember the increased payroll taxes at the start of the year. Plus the decrease in military spending and other things from the year end budget stuff.
DeleteYes, actually that does make sense, considering the withdrawals from middle east spending must've gone down. And true on the payroll tax increase as well.
DeleteI guess I was looking at the military contractor pps's thinking they would've taken big hits....
Okay, SVM resistance here needs to hold $3.20
ReplyDeleteVIX - Tension/anxiety rising?
ReplyDeleteMight be a good opportunity to get long, wish I had some clue....
ReplyDeleteReps move to block healthcare act, risk gov shutdown.
ReplyDeleteTime for a NEW POST!
ReplyDeleteKMP - Maintain BUY, target $91
ReplyDeleteNEW POST!
ReplyDelete