I haven't been checking the blog lately, because as it turns out, without a *personal* interest in the markets, trading reduces to infrequent portfolio changes (based on how the market is evolving) and then not even looking at the market too often.
2nd_ave's previous post reflects exactly how I feel lately. I have failed as an investor, which seems to have been the last remaining part of my identity. Now I have no identity remaining, and as I look into the future, I don't see myself there. Correspondingly, there are no problems or worries about the future. Future will be exactly the same as the present moment -- some phenomena arising inside consciousness and actions being taken based on the NEED of the moment with the goal of increasing the harmony in the world. No personal projects in the future. Not being a particular person gives me the freedom to live as the whole world.
My wife is really happy with the recent changes in me -- she is saying that our family life, from her point of view, became much more harmonious without even a trace of conflicts (even though we are in a tight spot now, with 2 kids at school who need to be picked up at different time: at noon and 2:30pm, and a baby that is still feeding every 3 hours requiring my wife to stay home all the time, and no one here to help us). When there is no Self, there is no need to argue with anybody or with what is actually happening -- all that remains is to respond to events from the standpoint of love and care, since all events are just a manifestation of the same consciousness that is observing the events...
Since some of you are living off a crowd psychology, here is a note from Cumberland Advisors I received this morning:
ReplyDelete"The Fed fog seems to be lifting. Syrian smoke may be clearing, too. That calls for a strategy change.
...
As far as the stock market is concerned, the peak of urgency and risk was reached in August. As readers and clients know, we did some selling and raised some cash. As the Syria crisis has eased, the Fed outcome has become clearer, and the deficit numbers have continued to shrink, we have been redeploying that cash.
At this point we are nearly fully invested. We believe the stock market will end the year higher than its present level. We see the outlook for slow growth and low inflation as being very conducive to profitable stock market investing using exchange-traded funds."
Seems like buying the angst would've been the better move.
DeleteOil - Seems like breakout failed, anybody shorting?
ReplyDeleteFed news....no tapering yet. Move on, nothing to see here....
ReplyDeleteOh, and pm's up over 2.5% so far....
DeleteOh wow, I guess that means the economy isn't overheating, notice a couple days ago the inflation core was tame.
DeleteAnd wage inflation, where is it? Well, employment's a lagging indicator, right?
Umm, so even the bears who claimed no taper would bring the market down are summarily shown the door once again, nice....
Fed decision - No scaleback, waiting for more evidence of economic improvement.
Wow, whatever they said got a response, didn't it?
ReplyDeletePM's - Guess all of a sudden QE is good for PM's, same brand of QE, isn't it, so WTF?
ReplyDeleteMaybe this is a good short....
It will almost certainly be an intraday reversal. News events almost always are.
DeleteBut it has the potential of continuing since it is about easy money.
Reminds me of that Lowell George song... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWEUPB5XHjE
David -- Thanks so much for 'Turning the Page' -- All the Best Man
ReplyDeleteThe economy is so bad that the Fed cannot even reduce the QE by a tiny smidge?
ReplyDeleteOil - Could be the knockout before the move higher just happened?
ReplyDeleteUCO - Up 5%....
So now it seems clear those commercials loading up on T's were the smart money.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN&p=d1
Screw T's. Look at NUGT. Just shoot me.
DeleteYou and me both, with a single bullet. Line up!
DeleteThe Fed ‘surprises’ by delaying the ‘tapering’ of bond purchases, lifting gold/silver prices 4-5% + miners a whopping +10%. The vertical rally makes it all but impossible for traders to board, a signature move in markets. Even more typical was the overnight/early morning selloff in precious metals, which ensured maximum pain for bulls prior to liftoff.
ReplyDeleteIs it now safe to board? Probably, but as a rule I never chase prices. This week’s lows in the miners will likely mark another ‘higher low’ in the recovery process for miners, and if I spot an opportunity to buy moving forward I’ll take it. As Dave likes to say, trading is like catching a bus- if you miss one, just wait for the next one to come along.
We had almost 5 minutes to board the train, now it may be too late?
DeleteNot really. Here's my take:
Delete(a) GDX closes up another 1-2% Thursday.
(b) It may start to 'regress' from there.
(c) It may go on to rally another 10-15%. Then regress.
It doesn't really matter. If I don't find an attractive entry, I won't take it. But I'll be looking for one.
David- I've been in your shoes, and here's my advice. Coping mechanisms work, but at some point you will have coped. Then you need to move on. Even better would be picking up where you left off, becoming a great investor, and STILL retain most/all of your 'freedom from self' discoveries. It just takes time.
ReplyDeleteLet's face it. Money isn't everything. It isn't even close to the most important thing. Now you've discovered one of the more important things, and can 'return' to making money. After you make it all back, the journey will make sense. Money means nothing without the rest.
Delete2nd_ave -- I don't *need* or *want* to make money for myself now. If some time in the future, however, it will seem (from God's point of view, where God is something that loves and cares for the world) that the best thing for the world will be if David tries making money again, then I'll engage in it.
DeleteNow that I have seen that my previous identity (as an individual Self) was totally made up AND it necessarily implied suffering for that Self (since the Self, by definition, doesn't like something about the reality and is trying to change it, which rarely actually works) AND it necessarily implied suboptimal (not the most loving) behavior toward others (since the Self puts its priorities above everything else), why would I ever return to that identity?
I didn't say anything about returning to your previous identity.
DeleteWhen you're pushing 60, financial security will have more meaning. What if you or your wife develop health issues? What if you're disabled and unable to work? What if Medicare and Social Security become history? Your primary responsibility is to provide for your family. That means making money. You've learned quite a bit about the markets, and it wasn't a waste of time. You'll find ways to use what you've learned. It may come down to a Zen approach of observing the ebb and flow of prices, and taking from the markets what you need (rather than trading for ego).
DeleteLife and God work in mysterious ways. Seemingly random events often become meaningful later in life. I dropped out of college several times. I earned a BA in Psych. I considered both 'time wasted' when I finally began my career. However, in many ways they have contributed more to my successes in life and in the markets than the graduate degrees I earned later, and my regrets have been replaced with perspective.
DeleteYou're lamenting your years of gunfights and hanging up your six-shooter 'for good.' I think you'll strap it on again down the line to protect your family and your future.
I am not lamenting my past -- it was exactly what it was, and without the failure in the market I would not have been able to come to realizations that I made.
DeleteIf, as you have said, some time at a later point in life the situation will demand that I start making money in the markets again, then that's how the situation will evolve. From now on I'll just flow like water with whatever the situation demands.
You are young and have a family to grow. You have insights that I did not have until my mid 40's. I'm now 73. Thanks for your thoughts. (And I too am down on PM stocks not to mention NSPH}.
DeleteSecond is offering perspective that is part of realization and experience.
DeleteIt takes time to realize that "failure" is learning and that "The Source" didn't create you to be nothing, do nothing, have nothing, to "fail". Losing money in the markets is not failure. It is learning human nature and that being logical and cock-sure is folly. It may take still more time to see the flow of human emotion and energy that is the markets.
You are here to serve and that requires getting in touch with "The Source".
What was Buddha's lesson under the Bodhi Tree? What were the responses of his peers? Even the Buddha took time to become enlightened.
It is good to flow, but even in flowing there is purpose, family, service.
Well thank God Fed actions have next to no impact..
ReplyDeleteOne phenomenon of note is this occurred intraday, so the gap up/down crew now has some work on their plate as a result.
DeleteOnly 75 points to go till we get our fat pitch?
ReplyDeleteStill reeling over here, not sure if I've been enabled or disabled.....
DeleteMan, this is one of those posts where I go, damn...everyone's smarter than me.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure how you derived that, you were gone all day?
Delete"September 14, 2013: The equity markets have rallied past a few resistance levels clearly expecting the Federal Reserve to delay its monetary tightening. The Sensex and Nifty burst out of resistance and seems headed to the all time high. The same looks true for the S&P 500 and Dow."
ReplyDeleteARR - Dividend cut alert
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/embed/MDOrzF7B2Kg?rel=0
ReplyDeleteI bet you never new this happened on a tragic day in our history.
Well worth watching till the end.
Illini, what other insights did you have since your mid-40's? I would love to hear them, and maybe they'll speed up the process that has begun for me. Feel free to drop me an e-mail on my yahoo mailbox: dive1734
ReplyDeleteBSBR - IH&S target $7.50
ReplyDeleteHUN - Buy
ReplyDeleteSo, sentimentrader says odds are good for a pullback over the next couple of months after yesterday's rally. Probably true, but probably not really playable for someone like me.
ReplyDeleteJason Goepfert @sentimentrader 19h
Next 50 days when $SPY rallies 0.75% to a 52-week hi on Fed day: 0.1%, -2.7%, -8.0%, -5.6%, -4.3%
Also, why did the stocks I want to sell not ramp up on yesterday's news?
ReplyDeleteHave you been following my trades again BB?? :)
DeleteSD is in an interesting spot here.
ReplyDeleteRalph Acampora CMT @Ralph_Acampora 9m
ReplyDeleteTechnical Discipline: my negative stance made in early August was negated yesterday = "Never fight the primary trend"
My knee-jerk response is to short.
DeleteKMP - Might be continuing move up?
ReplyDeleteSRS - Further downside? Good hedge for mREIT's?
ReplyDeleteBC - Another $10 of upside?
ReplyDeleteANGO - Nano knife is latest exciting surgical device for cancer treatment.
ReplyDeleteI found another reason not to buy gold:
ReplyDeleteJim Rogers Forecasts a Drop to $900
Is the sugar rush wearing off?
ReplyDeleteRepeal of Obamacare - A really good reason for the next powerful market rally?
ReplyDeleteper cashin ubs
ReplyDeleteMike O'Rourke at Jones Trading succinctly summed up the view of many traders in this paragraph noted by Business Insider:
Right now, the FOMC has “a tiger by its tail” - it has lost control of monetary policy. The Fed can’t stop buying assets because interest rates will rise and choke the recovery. In short, today’s decision not to taper was driven by unimpressive economic data, the fear of a 3% yield on the 10 year Treasury and gridlock in Washington. If the economy cannot handle a 3% yield on the 10 year, then the S&P 500 should not be north of 1700. It is remarkable that the equity market continued to buy into easy money over economic growth. QE3 has been ongoing for nearly a year and the economy is not strong enough to ease off the accelerator (forget about applying the brake). Simultaneously, the S&P 500 is up 21% year to date and the average share gain in the index is over 25%. Maybe today’s action will turn out to be short covering, but if it was not then paying continually higher prices for equities in a potentially weakening economy is a very dangerous proposition.
Mike's concern about the follow-through to Wednesday's sharp FOMC response rally appears to have more than a few historical precedents. Here are some comments on the topic from ever-vigilant Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader:
Based on prior positive reactions to Fed statements, it looks like this breakout may have at least a bit more to go. Usually there is some shorter-term follow-through to these kinds of moves. It shouldn't take much to quickly shift sentiment into excessive optimism territory, though, and looking at the other recent post-FOMC reactions (see below), that may be enough to trigger another multi-week pullback. So for now risk isn't yet elevated, but that should change with another 1-3 days of rallying.
On again/off again is a purely BS monetary policy, IMO.
DeleteIn thinking about this, all of the swings from yesterday (rates down, dollar down, market up, gold up) are most likley temporary. The fact that they didn't cut bond buying by $10 or $20 billion really is irrelevant.
DeleteFrom a larger perspective, what is really happenning is the economy is getting better, jobs are improving, Europe is bottoming, China is improving, etc. This continues with or without the fed.
In 6 months, this will all be long forgotten and the effects of this as well.
And stocks will continue upwards, interest rates upwards, US$ upwards and gold probably downwards - but we may be getting to a point with gold where it can't go down much more as lower prices will drive lower supply, but this happens regardless of fed tapering.
There's a good possibility you are correct, I personally can't dispute the possibility with certainty.
DeleteHow could Anthrax vaccine manufacturing be a lucrative business, I don't get it?
ReplyDeleteMaybe just the Government?
DeleteExactly, I haven't had Anthrax disease in at least over a year.
DeleteFrom where can I obtain Auto Brewery Syndrome enzyme?
ReplyDeleteRH is interesting here.
ReplyDeleteMark, how do you pick your stocks? Is it purely chart based or do you like something specifically about stocks like RH and SD? Both are good companies I believe, but haven't looked into either in detail.
DeleteI like that idea.
DeleteTop hedgie David Tepper liking the no taper - bullish for stocks:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/101046745
FLR - Taking it all off.
ReplyDelete$800 trading GDX between 27.27 and 27.55.
ReplyDeleteDo I 'believe' in the gold/miners rally? Not yet.
DeleteMy take: If you own/owned miners, yesterday was a fine opportunity to take money off the table.
DeleteURG - Partial fill today.
ReplyDeleteLAX - Annual legless lizard stir fry festival?
ReplyDeleteHelium is in short supply. He stockpile remains accessible by Congressional vote.
ReplyDeleteARR - Not much response to a 40% cut in dividend....
ReplyDeleteNot the only mREIT to act this way recently.
PIR - Another fat pitch setup for the wicker warehouse?
ReplyDeleteTop of channel here 1746 coming, or perhaps even 1910?
ReplyDeleteBMY - Look at her go!!!!
ReplyDeleteRAD/WAG - Cherry soda! :)
ReplyDeleteJPM - False H&S?
ReplyDeleteBullard - "Stimulus could wind down from Oct."
ReplyDeleteLOL, SOSDD
BB- I try to pick stocks that have some underling value/miss pricing I can understand and a compelling entry based on the chart. RH is like a lot. They sell very high quality products at a 'reasonable' upscale price. They are also expanding into other areas, which of course could lead to trouble, thus the pending name change.
ReplyDeleteSo maybe we can get a $60 gap fill entry???
DeleteMakes sense. I'm similar, but with more focus on the value and less on the chart.
DeleteWhen I look at RH, it has doubled this year and is at a fwd p/e of 30. Tough for me to step into as I like better value and closer to lows.
But, sounds like you are doing very well with this approach, so keep up the good work and I'll keep taking looks at your stocks to see if there are any I'd buy!
GDX @ 26.56...
ReplyDeleteTraders who couldn't wait to buy GDX @ 28.55 are now tripping over themselves to sell @ 26.49? That's the kind of move I love to fade.
DeleteGDX has retraced almost 80% of its move on Wednesday. Another illustration of new buyers being tested.
Delete83% retrace.
DeleteMaybe it is still too early for Alcoa (from Seeking Alpha). We want to see supply cuts and bankruptcies to drive down supply and provide price support, not people increasing supply into a weak market:
ReplyDelete9:42 AM
AA
Rusal: World aluminum supply needs 40% cut
A senior executive of the world’s largest aluminum producer, Russia’s Rusal, says 40% of global aluminum production is unsustainable at current prices, which may not bode well for Alcoa's (AA -0.9%) Q3 results when they're announced early next month.Global aluminum supply exceeded demand in the first seven months of this year by 773K metric tons, while the surplus in all of 2012 was 506K; BHP, RIO and CENX all have increased production significantly YTD.Alcoa managed to lower its costs by $64/metric ton in Q2 but its realized price fell by $92/metric ton, and there's no reason to believe prices have gone anywhere but down in Q3, Paul Ausick writes.
NOR - Huge volume spike, I think it was yesterday. These guys are set up to use cheap natty and BAC owns all the debt.
DeleteI'm sure I'm going to jinx it, but there's some interest (volume) in GMO this morning. I can't find anything.
ReplyDeleteNo kidding, I was noticing that too! BANG!
Delete10% Morning discount on AUMN lottery tickets.
ReplyDeleteFRO - One volatile mo-FRO
ReplyDeleteSpeaking on Bloomberg TV, Fed's Bullard warns an October Taper is on the cards:
ReplyDelete•*BULLARD SAYS ECONOMY ISN'T THAT FRAGILE
•*BULLARD SAYS $10 BILLION TAPER VERSUS NO TAPER NOT `BIG THING'
•*BULLARD SAYS NO TAPER, SMALL TAPER WAS A `BORDERLINE' CALL
•*BULLARD SAYS `SMALL TAPER' POSSIBLE BY FOMC IN OCTOBER
Welcome to animal farm, so much for openness.
It's a rigged game, is what I suspect. FED jerking markets up and down to help TBTF and their HFT algo machine pick everybodies pockets.
DeleteCP- I recall you asking on Wednesday whether it was too late to board? Another mining bus just pulled up, bro.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I ask myself that same question probably 10 times every day. And when I sold SVM at $7, I promised myself I wouldn't buy back in till silver hit $12
DeleteSo yeah, it's tempting, what else can I add? Do I feel lucky, punk?
What I should've done was buy BAC at $7, simply b/c it's a TBTF welfare case, and put my entire port in it for an obvious sure-thing double.
DeleteWonder how much of that monthly $85B is allocated towards shorting PM's, may as well just stick my finger in a wall socket knowing full well the energy behind it leads directly back to what is, for all intensive purposes, an infinite source of power in comparison to my time horizon.
Damn,spot silver hit 21.9x before bouncing. I remember seeing 21.9x prints early Wednesday morning BEFORE the Fed announcement. That's one helluva retrace.
ReplyDeleteHaven't heard much about Germany lately, wondering what's going on over there, if they've voted concerning the constitutionality of their financial bailout.
ReplyDeleteGDX -- return to Weekly PP @ 26.30
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/I2rHfJi9KbB
TVIX - Got balls?
ReplyDeleteURG - Is that a big order sitting there?
ReplyDeleteCP, no question about you being right. It's rigged.
ReplyDeleteIt is just more blatant today than the past.
GOT MILK
LOL, yep. Auto Brewery Syndrome enzyme - Get in my belly.
DeleteOff to go ski around the lake 'cause nobodies out and it's smooth as a babies bottom.....
Later gater and gaterets!
Physical Gold retraced about 50% of move.
ReplyDeleteGold equities in an up/down elevator from another dimension.
0.9198 - The algo wants you to pay 0.92, so it can make .000000000e-2, LOL
ReplyDeleteI'm still not finding a ton of stuff that looks awesome anymore. i'm seeing a lot of rotation through the market where stuff gets beaten down, others go on runs, people sell those, then buy the same stuff that got beaten down and then other stuff sells off. also seeing lots of stuff running to kind of insane levels...particularly YELP Z FB GRPN TSLA etc.
ReplyDeletei do like OSTK a good deal because it's very cheap compared to others in their industry on a price to sales basis and I think they have a lot of leverage inherent in their business and trends have been excellent over the past 5 quarters, but I am not completely sold the recent trends will continue. i think they could continue to offer services etc like their Club O membership which is just gravy in terms of margins and this could really make the company dirt cheap...and i think they could be an acquisition target for COST, GRPN or TJX, but both of those remains to be seen.
I also still like MY but it's too risky for me to take a large position on. I also still like NLS but it's not crazy cheap. CECO looks solid but they're not close to being profitable and the industry faces big headwinds. I like HNSN's chart pattern and insider buying and buying from ISRG but I have no way of knowing for sure just how defensible their technology is. TZOO looks good but it's not cheap and i would be buying it on the hopes that other investors bid the stock up in anticipation of the hotel booking platform being launched...and that the platform juices profits (i think that's gonna happen but it's still a risk). I like YRCW but its still a huge risk until they turn operations around. the list goes on...
I've been listening to Big Dave about looking at stuff that is coming off long basing transitional patterns and leaving the former leaders alone. I think that is the rotation.
Deletenot sure. i see lots of momentum names that just keep going and going. new ones recently are NQ QIHU RAD BIDU...
Delete1742, then 1910 -------- I don't discount this possibility ----------
DeleteThe problem is when we see this churning and rotation, the former high flyers can become a source of cash to buy the transitioning basing pattern issues.
DeleteHoly ----. It's like Wednesday's rally in miners never happened!
ReplyDeleteI must've missed something while I was in the batroom for a short while......
DeleteYeah, while you were in the batroom the market made a bat turn!
DeleteGMO - Wow man, I bet shareholders are really happy to see Mark still buying up the entire float with that cashola he transferred to his trading account...... :)
ReplyDeleteGDX has now entirely retraced Wednesday’s rally (and then some)! The law of Maximum Pain is uncannily accurate when it comes to predicting price moves. Traders who chased the bus on Wednesday were not only tested, they are now in market purgatory! It’s emotionally impossible to endure a -10% move in 2 days after opening a position during what was likely a short squeeze-induced rally.
ReplyDeleteWhat’s the next move? I still think today’s selloff is the perfect scenario to fade. However, managing one’s own emotions is key. The most effective method I know for managing emotions is position size. I opened a modest position in GDX this morning @ 26.48. GDX is now trading @ 25.71. That’s a -3% pullback (following a -6.35% decline prior to opening the position). Do I double down? There are certainly instances when I do, but it’s usually when pullbacks fall within ‘expectations.’ Today’s selloff exceeds my expectations- ie, I don’t understand what’s going on! The selloff could easily trigger stops and result in a freefall to support levels another -5-10% lower. On the other hand, I don’t intend to sell, as fading panic almost always pays off. In this case, I would add to positions only when prices climb back above my original basis.
Speaking of buses, anyone who chased the DJIA Muni on Wednesday is now similarly affected, with today’s -124 point drop on the heels of yesterday’s decline.
Bonds At Bat.
ReplyDeleteTaking a position in RYGBX (Rydex Government Long Bond) at the close.
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/gallery/bonds/flash.htm
TNX or TLT have held up best from gyrations of no taper caper.
ReplyDeleteI have to agree that position size is the best way to deal with what is happening and allow one to sleep at the same time.
What is amazing is that the adjusted monetary base just keeps on growing well above 20% growth rate and metals are in free fall.
Here's the plan:
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/9.18_ES_v2_daily.jpg
Low print for GDX 25.55, now recovering somewhat to 25.91. My take is that 25.55 will remain the low print for this cycle, with GDX ultimately headed for 31 before another leg down. I plan to add to positions around 28.
ReplyDeleteMassive sell side imbalances on the close for the jr's. 1.1M for AUMN.
ReplyDelete1.7M for MUX
Delete4.5 on the BUY for ANV.
DeleteRemember thou its options expiration week so that could be it and perhaps what's moving GMO which had 10x's its 10 day vol.
DeleteI'm not thrilled technically about today.
ReplyDeleteThis looks like a failed triple top break out, selling below the last high and negating anything positive from Fed speak day.
A couple of points:
1. We had some dipshit from the Fed out blabbing about tapering again.
2. No to be out-dumbed, the House passed a resolution to hold the economy hostage with s shutdown threatened (and apparently some kicking and screaming) if their arch enemy, President Obama doesn't take them seriously and give them their lollipop back.
So back into the former range we go.
I think this negates Peter Brandt's thesis, at least for this weekend. Today was as much or more damage as Wednesday was positive.
I read something the other day that said, "our country was created by geniuses so it could be run by idiots."
DeleteTele- Yep.
DeleteIn support of 2nd_ave's believe in the miners, the expected 10-year inflation rose to 2.23% today:
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=87988&category_id=0
Countered by non-interested parties:
Deletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/09/succinct-summation-of-weeks-events-92013/?utm_source=The+Big+Picture+Updates&utm_campaign=587af0a0b9-big_picture_email&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_662cf1de86-587af0a0b9-39094585
UberFacts @UberFacts 45m
ReplyDeletePenis enlargement surgeries are free in Cuba.
Offered up for others of course.
Chihuahua's have small ones too.
DeleteGMO. The thing is I remember AUMN going form 1.57 to 1.86 in one day a few months back. No volume, but still.
ReplyDeleteIt was a task, not buying GMO today.
DeleteGMO - Umm, I just remembered that USEG had been talking recently about developing their moly deposit in Colorado, wonder if that plan was part of the flooded zone in Co.?
ReplyDeleteIf Finviz is correct, USEG only has $4M is cash. They did recently sell some assets, so maybe those aren't accounted for yet??
DeleteWell I don't know. I seriously doubt there's any chance in hell their moly deposit ever gets developed because of where it is, despite that it's pretty decent.
DeleteDOO.TO - Bain Capital holds a $1.4B position?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Big volume, good or bad?
ReplyDeleteDD - No sale, hmmm......
ReplyDeleteTKMR - C&H on weekly?
ReplyDeleteSLW - There sure has been plenty of volume the past few months.
ReplyDelete