Wednesday, October 9, 2013

10/9/13 Head to New Zealand for 4.6% bonds

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-countries-whose-bonds-are-safer-than-treasurys-2013-10-09?link=MW_popular Interesting read. I plan to check with Fidelity's Fixed Income department later this week. Excerpts: 'According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. government’s net debt is now 89% of gross domestic product. By contrast, Germany—often thought of as Europe’s most financially sound nation—has net debts of only 56% of GDP. 'But if you want really, really safe, you should look a little further north of there—or a long way south. Scandinavian countries, and the Antipodes, have the best financial picture of all. 'New Zealand’s net debt is just 29% of its economy, and Australia’s is just 13%, according to the IMF. 'Denmark’s debts run to a mere 10% of GDP. But compared with its neighbors it looks positively feckless. The governments of Sweden and Norway are actually sitting on net assets. In other words, their governments’ assets exceed their liabilities. 'Norway has by far the strongest finances on the block. Years ago the country made the remarkably sensible decision not to fritter away the money it made from its oil boom on tax cuts or more spending. Instead it banked the money in a sovereign wealth fund and invested it outside of the country. 'The Norwegian fund isn’t run by Wall Street sharks. It is run by a division of the national post office. They use a simple index approach and invest globally. A spokesman explained to me some time ago that the government is only allowed to spend the “real return” each year—in other words, the investment return minus inflation. 'A 10-year Treasury bond, backed by the full faith and credit of John Boehner, Harry Reid, Ted Cruz and Barack Obama, pays just 2.6% annual interest, or about the same as the predicted rate of inflation over the next 10 years. In other words, your portfolio manager is so impressed by the abilities of Boehner, Reid, Cruz & Co. to work together in a responsible fashion that he is willing to lend them money for 10 years in exchange for absolutely no real gain whatsoever. 'Meanwhile a 10-year bond issued by New Zealand pays 4.6% interest. Australia pays 3.9%, and even Norway pays 3%.'

135 comments:

  1. Panic? As the RevShark used to say, 'Sometimes it's better to panic first, and ask questions later.' I really believe we're at a market juncture where it will pay to hold cash.

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    1. Cash is opportunity. If you don't have cash, you won't be able to take advantage of any upcoming sell-off.

      The hard part is if we get a government settlement overnight, you'll miss that too.

      But, no doubt cash is not a bad place to be right now.

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  2. Hey, don't forget Canada - debt to GDP of 33%; fully funded Canada Pension Plan (unlike Social Security), AAA rated, strong economy and one of the only countries you can't trade Credit Default Swaps on because no-one seems to want to buy insurance against Canada defaulting.

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    1. I agree, and I would consider Canadian bonds at higher yields. Right now they aren't yielding much more than US Treasurys.

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  3. This issue is really startig to piss e off

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    Replies
    1. This is just a suggestion. Sell all of your positions, and see if that doesn't chill you out a little ;_

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  4. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shutdown-shows-strength-of-us-and-the-dollar-2013-10-09?link=mw_story_kiosk

    The view from a Brit. He has a point.

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    Replies
    1. Perhaps that explains why PM's aren't running, nobody's concerned over the US gov's finances. What are your personal observations of the world around you?

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  5. Yep, the FED also has to compete in terms of interest on excess reserves!

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  6. Yepmmmm, cash is good and you miss upside perhaps if an overnight CR is worked out but how low will she go before an CR is agreed upon?

    How about some TBF?

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  7. I'd rather focus on investments that will work over the near to intermediate term future. Time to go to cash? I've heard that for 4 years now quite frankly. This time could be different for sure. I'm curious how all of these CMT's can justify saying that a selloff of what...4.9%...is the proverbial dagger into the heart of the market. Really? Hmmm....

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    1. I wouldn't over complicate it. Below the 50 dma which is now starting to tilt downward, triple tops, some key sectors knocking out. I don't think it is written in stone but CMT's pay attention to little details and overall levels. Draw a line. The markets have made no forward progress since May. It starts to add up.

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    2. I mean can we at least first get and stay under the 200 DMA? Even if we have topped, the market sure as shit looks a helluva lot like late 1980 doesn't it? I've been mentioning this for a while. Back then we were in a multiyear trading range...it finally broke out to new highs above the 120 S&P level it was stuck under for a decade or so, then it reversed, bottomed out just below the 100 DMA with a big bottoming tail hammer, tried to retest the old highs and slowly faded away until the bottom gave out. Take a look at the similarities between Dec 1980 and now:

      Then:
      http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#symbol=^gspc;range=19800704,19810612;compare=;indicator=sma%2850,100,200%29+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

      Now:
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50251795936

      So if you look at back then we rallied right around here first, then it took another 7 months before it finally broke below the 200 DMA. The very same thing could possibly happen here. There's certainly a ton of bearishness out there...and if we do go lower I suspect it will take a while of sideways choppiness to work off that bearishness.

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    3. I have no idea what will happen. I take it you say the charts look similar but who knows what the geniuses in DC are doing emotionally to the markets/bonds. Probably nothing and then a big news day and then another sell off if I had to guess.

      MY is on the list with a trigger at 2.85, thought you would want to know that.
      lots of interest in foreign stuff. You were spot on a few weeks back on the negativity. I don't know if that has worked itself out yet or not.

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  8. Lot's of technical damage...triple top and sell offs.
    I suspect a CR will be much like the Fed rally. Here today, gone tomorrow. I like the AUNZ idea.
    I've been playing the short side by the day and will until close to the 17th, then I'll be in cash. I suspect the children toy with everyone's emotions well afterward and we may see a big down day to send a message. They always test the markets.

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  9. J.C. Penney (JCP), Wolverine World Wide (WWW) and Humana (HUM), for example, all warned this week of potential bottom-line consequences of federal furloughs and agency closures; corporate M&A plans also appear to be on hold as executives await a return to normal.


    Ah JCP you have eough to worry about o?

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    1. JCP needs an excuse, perhaps? I didn't realize they're a gov contractor.......

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  10. CC - I love MY around $2.25. I don't really care what happens in DC or the markets to be honest. I think the next 3 to 6 months are going to be listless in the US with many fgn markets playing a little catchup. I do think we could have some tough sledding after then though, but I'm going to pay more attention to the fgn ones right now. I have DATE (shoulda coulda woulda sold yesterday BEFORE the crash), GPRC, NBG (picked back up again today), AA, and PEIX. Almost bought VISN a few days ago...doh.

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  11. China - Sure would like to know why these turd stocks are now suddenly gold,must be some resolution to the ADR status........, possibly.

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  12. CRASH ALERT!

    When everyone knows something is it an unknown?

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    1. Really? I hope we don't get a crash, an CR of some sort hopefully won't mark a crash?

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    2. i'm just kidding. pretty much every trader's notes i read were bearish. no wonder today is up huge.

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  13. Note that DJIA futures spiked +150 overnight on news that Obama plans to meet with Republican leaders. The long bond (TLT) declines -0.75% on the news. Gold takes a -10/oz hit, and miners (GDX) drop -1.5%. An overdue relief rally (+/- a short squeeze) is in full swing, and while I’m not participating in any upside, the Un-Trade at least allows me to skirt the carnage in the ‘safe haven’ camp this morning.

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  14. BAC - Flirted with the bottom of it's channel for a few days, going higher now?

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  15. good morning guys. hope everyone has been doing well.

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    1. Good to see you putting in the one post per year we require for blog participation!

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    2. Hey JB - Hows everything going?

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    3. everything is good here, still trading /CL and /SI, at least enough so that mrs jb thinks I'm doing something other than play wgt.

      you know me 2nd, always doing the least amount of work possible.

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  16. I've often wondered> When Hussman drives to work each morning, it must get old watching the markets spring back time after time after time.

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    1. Was this guy around in the 80's and 90's? He's what...50? So maybe he was investing in the 90's? I'm curious to know if he was bearish during long bouts of those periods.

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    2. I kinda tuned Hussman out too, is he possibly insane and does he actually know how to drive a car? He may live in a small apartment somewhere, it may not be safe to make any assumptions?

      I had a job applicant one time who didn't have a driver's license, he didn't know how to drive a car.........

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  17. still iisg letters o the keyboard Looks like a ew laptop for e

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    1. http://www.tradingcomputers.com/

      this is where I get all my trading gear.

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    2. Sounds like a copper trace on the keyboard PCB is broken.

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  18. URG - Out flat, I guess this one's just a turd stock for hot dog trader gamblers and not actual investing.

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  19. GPRC - Looks like a cup has formed, now needs a matching handle?

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  20. Added some more DATE at $6.57

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  21. HII - Best I can assess, this company is in a position that's arguably infinitely valuable. So what is this persistent and seemingly conservative analyst estimate?

    "Huntington Ingalls Industries: $50 PO validates Underperform"

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    Replies
    1. Notice how this statement so oddly validates itself, LOL...... Is that weak or what?

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  22. "If ands and buts were candy and nuts, everyday would be Christmas........" Right, not a game.

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    Replies
    1. I hate it when this guy stoops to doing Grover Norquist's bidding, I wonder if he hates it himself?

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  23. Hoped back into PNRA much smaller position. $160.6X

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    1. Looking to gradually build a position in this one for the longer term with a stop below $155ish. I think that was a major low.

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  24. "GPRC - Looks like a cup has formed, now needs a matching handle?" - Yeah it looks phenomenal. A little volume comes in and this sucker could rocket higher. Valuation could justify higher prices but $3.8 is the first target for me. My position is small enough to just hold it and not give a rats ass.

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  25. I'm completely confused as to why the world didn't finally come to it's end this morning, looks like even the market came to it's senses in the nick of time, LOL..........

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  26. Not sure what the hell happened with PEIX but I added some at $3.66

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    1. added more at 3.63

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    2. Well I got stopped out at $3.53. Yeesh

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    3. New potential ethonal mandate.

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    4. i actually didn't get stopped out of it all of it which i guess is now a good thing because it is rallying.

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    5. Alright sold some at $3.62

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    6. Yeah, kinda like PM's, can't buy strength, only new(er) lows.

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    7. Mark - Yeah I read through it and it sounds like it might be some posturing by the oil and gas industry more than anything:

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-10/epa-considers-u-s-ethanol-mandate-cut-amid-complaints.html

      either way its got me a little jittery and i'll look to exit most likely the rest of my shares.

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  27. VMW - Closed the gap down from Jan, now looks like it must close the gap up from July. Oh, Joy!

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  28. "who knows what the geniuses in DC are doing"

    I think they're trying to reload their stocks at lower prices.

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  29. How many times this week is the World Bank going to cut China, and why do the Chinese stocks rise everyday they leave that completely free of charge and informative Reuters article that requires no obligatory subscription whatsoever to read, posted?

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-bank-cuts-china-east-031811028.html

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  30. Plenty of hammers out there from yesterday's close.

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    1. that's what i saw all over the place and got me thinking it was a low. didn't see this one coming though. jeez. let's see if it can rally much above today's highs.

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  31. Added some more PNRA at $159.5 today. Still holding some of the PEIX. Should have sold that last Friday.

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  32. Wondering if the US gov, does default, are PM's likely to rally? Wonder what the trading plan might be?

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  33. (a) RYGBX closed up +0.21%.
    (b) RYPMX closed down -0.23%.

    So I would have broken even on a 50/50 position taken at yesterday's close. I still think 'staying away' from the trade was the correct decision.

    (c) RYTNX closed up +4.37%.

    You could say, 'Score one for the crowd.' And I could say, 'I could have reopened a position at Wednesday's close.' However, I doubt most RYTNX traders caught the full brunt of today's gain. How do I know? I opened a position in RYTNX @ 47.35 at the 1030 am window 10/4, and closed it @ 47.19 at the 1030 am 10/7. Had I held until today's session, I would have taken an intervening hit of -4% (ouch!), and would most likely have closed this morning at 1030 for a breakeven trade. Even holding 'til end of day would only have netted me a +0.8% gain (RYTNX closed @ 47.74, versus my original basis of 47.35). Sure, there's no way of knowing that most traders would have traded using my entries- but the above prices are actual entries (or would-be entries), and so they represent best guesses. The percentage of players who actually waited until Wednesday's close to open RYTNX? Probably the same that opened positions before any +2% day for the indexes.

    (d) What about opening RYPMX at today's close? I thought about it. I even placed the trade, but then canceled it. I'll take another look tomorrow. For now, gold/silver spot prices continue to decline in the Sydney market, so I'll at least sleep better tonight.

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  34. "Had I held until today's session, I would have taken an intervening hit of -4% (ouch!)"

    Yeah, the computer algos are robust, they're deep into the psychology of ur head.

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  35. By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

    CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — What are the chances that a bear market will begin tomorrow?

    Mark Hulbert - 1/8/13 - "October 9 Crash? Why tomorrow in particular?

    Because that day is Oct. 9, and two of the most prominent stock market turning points of the last decade occurred on this day: The first was the beginning of the 2002-2007 bull market, which occurred on Oct. 9, 2002. The second was the ending of that bull market, in 2007. "

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    Replies
    1. I wonder if 10/9 was the start of the next leg up in the bull market??? It certainly wasn't the top because that occurred 3 weeks earlier.

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  36. TM - Remember when this one was $70 ?

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  37. Oh ohhh, JPM and WFC earnings crash alert!

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  38. BRCM - Alright guys, what about this one then?

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  39. INVN - Holy lost opportunity. A double, Batman!

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  40. CCL/RIG/CLMT - BB, are you sure you're not David Tepper? These three are David Tepper picks! :)

    CCL - Bidding at near $32 this morning! :)

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  41. I’m not saying I saw this coming, just that my ‘sixth sense’ stopped me from following through with a long trade in miners on Thursday:

    http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

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  42. FMAR - LOL, wouldn't have guessed yesterday would be a 20% day.

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  43. I sold my PNRA at $159.3 this morning and moved it into NBG at $4.86. Still holding AA, GPRC, DATE, and some PEIX.

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  44. Gold / Miners > It was already scripted long ago. Now you're just watching the main act being performed.

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    Replies
    1. The Greeks had it right. Tragicomedy. We've seen this play out so many times.

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  45. Let's see...what were the most recently hated themes? Oh thats right, Europe, China and India. Take a look around at what stocks have been performing best.

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    1. Yeah, I noticed that. I wish I'd been reading all the arguments, seemed like a lot of positive pumping going on with hedge funds. There are both bulls and bears hyperventilating over this subject, my feeling is the bears will be proven wrong.

      Just like JPM's H&S isn't fruiting, despite the right shoulder is abbreviated it refuses to drop below the neckline and seems to be morphing/stretching out in preparation for a leg up,

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  46. Wishing it weren't raining so I could go cut/stack firewood instead of watching while the market crashes.... TGIBF!

    Just recalled an old Friend, Jimmy Nystrom, he's one of the best experimental welder/inventor/fabricators I know(on left, 2nd photo):
    http://www.rdmag.com/award-winners/2011/08/uniform-aerogel-gets-salt-out

    Other notable technology awards for 2012:
    http://www.rdmag.com/articles/2012/06/2012-r-d-100-award-winners

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  47. Replies
    1. VAR - This is the other one I'm watching, and missing California. I worked/partied with J. Nystrom while at Varian, until Jimmy was arrested for illegal drugs......

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  48. This is an important subject, I believe:
    http://www.rdmag.com/award-winners/2012/08/corrosion-resistance-achieved-room-temperature

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    1. CW is the company involved. CW is another company that I think who's worth cannot be overestimated.

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  49. RE Europe, a lot of the Euro-country ETF's are at YTD high's? I don't see hate there?

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    1. How about love/hate? Like red/blue, retaining ingrained concepts/habits stretching back to the to the beginning of human history may be proof men are evolving in reverse while women are evolving forward?

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    2. BB - I know that's my point. A year ago it was the opposite. Recently the hated trades were China, India, EMs and Greece. Look at the performance of those markets.

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    3. JCP is currently receiving a fair amount of hate?

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    4. CP - I think JCP could be in the bottoming process. My issue is they have ruined their balance sheet.

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  50. DNKN - Weighs in on plastic waste, BERY drops?

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  51. CCL - Okay, I have to admit I was convinced this one was going to mid/upper $20's............ Looks like that ain't gonna happen.

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  52. Why do Reps hate Obamacare so much, it's unclear to me, just as unclear as the Tea-Parties charter... Reps are evolving in reverse.

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  53. Busy day today for me. Just trying to reposition my holdings to focus more on stuff that I think will do well longer term and on stuff that is cheap. I decided to just stick with the PNRA position. I re-entered earlier at $159.675. I also sold my NBG at breakeven. I added to GPRC at $2.29 and $2.31. Now holding PNRA, DATE, PEIX, GPRC, and AA.

    Not sure if you guys noticed the insider buying on AA. Usually a good sign and confirms the recent improved earnings. This company used to pay out a $0.68 dividend. Not saying that will happen again, but if they get back to 1/2 that then you're looking at a 4% yield on today's prices. Not terrible.

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  54. AGO - Seems to be quite a bit of volume lately, buying the pullback????....

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    Replies
    1. Now I remember this company, they used to own one of my mortgages!

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  55. Come on, put this goat rodeo in gear! :)

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  56. Sure is tempting to buy something here. Feels like this could be the start of the year-end stock run.

    Not doing anything so far today....

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  57. The Chinese small cap space has been on fire for a while now. It really all started with the solar companies and the larger internet companies (QIHU YY VIPS etc) then the smaller internet companies and now it's in the microcaps. This was one of the most hated groups I've ever followed. I reminded myself to stay away from it until there was either clarity in the form of SEC go aheads on investigations or investors were warming up to them. Well both has happened. I've seen several SEC notices sent to companies that have cleared them of investigations. The latest one I came across was CGA. While it's not the bottom, I think it's good to keep in mind what the valuations are and where they are relative to where they were at one time. So while a CGA for example it up big, it pales in comparison to the $18 price it traded at. A lot of these are trading at 2 to 3X earnings primarily because the average person is scared of them based on what has gone on in the recent past. They won't trade at the multiples US micro / small caps do because they're based out of China, but I'm thinking more and more people will come around to them and bid them up to 6 to 8X.

    I think there's still room to run in these over the longer term (i.e., 1 to 2 years).

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    Replies
    1. I see, an SEC upgrade.... So convenient!

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    2. I don't see any resulutions mentioned on the blog site I used to follow, it seems the balls are still in the air?

      http://www.chinaaccountingblog.com/weblog/solving-regulatory-battles.html

      Delete
  58. XCO, here is one the gang use to follow. It is starting to pick up here and getting a weekly buy off of weekly stochastic if you like that sort of thing. Just watching for now but may jump.

    GOLD, still hanging in there with initial purchases both down about -10%. 2nd's scenario happened much faster than I would have expected which is just another sign of its extreme weakness. Do I wish I would have waited? of course but I still think (dangerous I know) that we are within 10-15% of a bottom but I have known to be wrong. Still I think the thesis can play out and position size is such that I'm ok.

    If I looked at it as a pure ST trade I would have been gone.

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  59. OK, broke down and bought some KB.

    KB is the one of the largest banks in Korea, 9 times next years earnings, 60% of tangible book, strong earnings growth. If the world economy does well, Korea will also do well, but it is also a mature enough economy that it should be fine even without a strong global economy.

    Another half position for me. I think I will have to start calling this my new fullsize position as I don't seem to get the opportunity to get the other half lower.

    Buying the stock up 4.5% today is probably dumb, but, I'm looking to at least back to tangible book, so won't hurt if this plays out.

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    Replies
    1. IH&S Formation suggests $2 more upside, could be more after that........

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  60. Almost bought Societe Generale (SCGLY) today - it is also at very good valuation, but I still have ING which is similar region and KB gets Asia diversification.

    I am still thinking FIAT (FIATY) would be a good buy too as very cheap compared to most auto makers and have the Chrysler catalyst to drive the stock over the next few months.

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  61. BB - on the china small caps i bought MY a few weeks ago and sold too early in the $2.5 avg. I bought DATE at $6.7 (and watched it go up 15% then down 20% from there in two hours). I also bought GPRC at $1.9, $1.8 and a little more today at $2.3. Those are the only ones I've purchased. Oh I bought and sold CLNT for one day...I don't have much conviction on that. I like DATE longer term in part because it now pays an annual dividend (should amount to 3 to 4%) and is basically the eHarmony of China. If it runs up obviously I won't hold it longer term...

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  62. PEIX article

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ethanol-production-mandate-could-cut-134747091.html

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    1. yeah we were mentioning that yesterday. i don't understand the reaction to it because the news was known for a while. could be a technical gap fill / double bottom? bot ADM, GPRE, etc responded at the same time. I pared my position down but still hold it because the earnings picture looks very good for them for the first time in...well, ever. I can estimate north of $0.30 EPS by next quarter.

      Corn continues to go lower which means higher margins for ethanol producers. If this was known then why is this happening?

      http://www.turnto23.com/news/us-world/with-corn-price-drop-more-ethanol-profitable-once-again-100613

      I am wrong so far so that what I'm saying with a grain of salt.

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    2. "I am wrong so far so TAKE what I'm saying with a grain of salt."

      Delete
  63. This is the China blog I was following in hopes something would come of the entire drama:

    http://www.chinaaccountingblog.com/weblog/solving-regulatory-battles.html

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  64. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-trading-briefly-halted-early-friday-2013-10-11?dist=countdown

    In other words, outsized supply was dumped at the NY open. Even more unsettling is that gold prices extended their decline during the session, and are now bidding down -30/oz @ 1265. GDX off -2% to 23, a mere +3.5% above its YTD low of 22.21. From a contrarian standpoint, there is every reason to buy (including the fact that it’s an emotionally ‘difficult’ trade).

    However, something feels ‘off.’ After bouncing +37% from 22.21 in June to 30.41 in August, GDX has now virtually retraced the entire move! Furthermore, almost every investor in GDX since 2006 (when the ETF opened for trading) is underwater, which also includes every new investor since August. That can make for some interesting cross-currents. The kind I don’t like to swim in.

    Even so, I’m mentally very, very close to opening a position in RYPMX. I would even place of the odds of a ‘winning’ trade at 65%. But it’s kind of like starting down a dark alley at night. It’s usually not a good idea, especially on Friday. Anything can happen in Washington over the weekend, and whatever happens is unlikely to benefit my position on Monday.

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    1. The market is quite news driven these days, but gold does not seem to be responding. Makes me think there is something bigger at play here with respect to the gold markets. Could be India - supposedly the gold in the temples in India is equivalent to the production of all of the world's mines in a year and the India government is trying to catalogue all this to potential use it to defend it's currency.

      Delete
    2. IMF Selling maybe? If that's the case then buy once they're done unloading, all central banks are fronts for insider trader-thieves bilking taxpayers by trading gold in and out of public treasuries, insiders have visibility to both sides of the trade b/c they handle it personally.

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    3. Gold market is small, isn't it? Is the market large enuff for Indian government to rescue the currency? Even if they were to somehow fix their currency to gold backed bonds or something like that?

      I guess if they just sold the gold then they get hosed by the market and start a public uproar/riot?

      Delete
  65. AGO - Oh look what they did the last hour, the SOB's!

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    Replies
    1. Maybe some good news coming out this weekend re Detroit or Puerto Rico?

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    2. Could be, FBP had a decent day, too.

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  66. We got us a CONVOY! Sounds like a b-movie from the 70's, don't it, LOL!!!!!!!

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  67. Detroit Says Gets $350 Million Financing Commitment From BarclaysReuters

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  68. DC Redskins will play Dallas:
    http://www.theonion.com/articles/washington-redskins-change-their-name-to-the-dc-re,34161/

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  69. So, gold collapsed before market open, at a time when there's no volume, once again. Not that it matters but, wonder who it was that needed out so badly during the time of day when volume is so light and why do they pick this time of day so often?

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