Monday, October 7, 2013
10/7/13
Talisman Energy +6.5% AH as Icahn discloses 61M-share stake
Talisman Energy (TLM) +6.5% AH after surging 4.6% in the final minutes of regular trading, as Carl Icahn discloses a 61M-share stake, or 5.97%, in the company.
Icahn tweets that he "may have conversations" with TLM's management regarding strategic alternatives and board seats.
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Some of my brilliant comments were getting deleted, so I crated a new post.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Only 3K shares. I'm no Icahn.
Here's one for all you home gamers out there!!
ReplyDeleteTWGP.
jeebus. what the heck happened there?
DeleteDon't know, but they are taking a huge charge.
DeleteMy wife was saying Kohl's is a great place to find some good deals on stuff. She just visited one for the first time this weekend. Makes me think that's where the JCP crowd went. KSS actually looks cheap but the market cap isn't that far from the M market cap so barring a move into other categories and taking on TGT / WMT I wonder how much room it has to grow.
ReplyDeleteI also heard that Amazon is getting into vitamins which may be having an impact on VSI. VSI has a tiny market share so I don't know how true this is. Perception could be reality but my suspicion is this is a buying opp.
JMBA tanked after hours. I was tempted several times to buy that over the past year but never did. With this move its up 5% or so on the year.
ReplyDeleteOk whomever finds the next NPSP I'll buy drinks all night.
ReplyDeleteHarlan's dilemma....
ReplyDeleteHe wants to get braces because his teeth are salty, but if he does he wont be the cute one anymore.
ha. tough call. i didn't get em and i was the prettiest belle at the ball.
Deletelook at the overseas markets. get out of your US stocks. the US markets are just grinding. Europe + China + India.
ReplyDeleteie: EPI? This one is an I&HS.......
DeleteJCP off @ 8.02 (basis was 7.85). I know, I know.
ReplyDeleteCCL - Jumping up and down, is this capitulation (whatever that is!)
ReplyDeletehttp://nypost.com/2013/10/07/cnbc-fires-two-american-greed-staffers-for-stealing/
ReplyDeleteTLM - Shouldn't we be buying this one?
ReplyDeleteGEO - An interesting hotel chain with a slight twist.
ReplyDeleteCrash alert! Just kidding but it is messy out there. I sold some DATE at $7.6 then bought it back at $7.05. I didn't realize but this one paid a dividend of $0.26 last year. That's an almost 4% yield.
ReplyDeleteContemplating picking up some NBG again...in piecemeal...
ReplyDeleteBusy, but opened starters in CCL/RH/DATE and add to YRCW right about current prices.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteClean Energy Fuels (CLNE -8.5%) is added to Piper Jaffray's Top Picks List as a Sell with a new $4.50 price target, cut from $9.50, saying trucking companies overwhelmingly prefer a type of natural gas CLNE doesn't sell.
The firm's channel checks indicate that more than 90% of engines emerging from the Cummins-Westport (CMI; WPRT) joint venture are opting for compressed natural gas, which fleets can obtain for $1.50/gallon, instead of liquefied natural gas, which CLNE sells for at least $2.75/gallon.
Also, the firm estimates CLNE will sell only 15M gallons of its Redeem fuel made from landfill gas next year; since CLNE will sell ~299M gallons of fuel in 2014, Redeem will not have a major impact on overall profit margins.
Compressed as opposed to liquified, eh? That argument doesn't make any sense to me without more info. Was CLNE really intending on refueling liquified NG vehicles? I don't think that's realistically feasible is it? This shouldn't be a new realization?
DeleteBALT - Might be a good entry here?
ReplyDeleteAren't they gonna vote today, or is that off the table?
ReplyDeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteHere's more info on DATE's div policy:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/jiayuan-announces-special-dividend-annual-110000902.html
I did some quick math on this. This upcoming quarter they're expecting to do 5.88% sequential growth which equates to roughly 25% annual growth. They have actually managed to keep their overhead costs in check as they have grown slower than revenues.
So if I assume 25% top line with 20% expense growth, I get $82.9 MM Revenues.
Using same margins as last year I get $53.9 Gross Profit.
Expenses were $34.5 MM so a 20% bump up makes them $41.4 MM next year.
That equates to $12.5 MM operating income.
They have a huge cash balance that they earn interest income on. Last year they had $79.9 MM cash at 12/31/12. They paid about a $7.8 MM dividend in June and as of 6/30/13 they had a $83.3 MM cash balance. That's a cash boost of about $11 MM in the first 2 quarters excluding the dividend. That's a little high but they should do about $14 MM in 2013. Anyway, Int Inc last year was $2.6 MM. I'm assuming another $2.8 MM. Tax rate was around 14%.
So....
$12.5 MM Op Inc
+$2.8 MM Int Inc
=$15.3 MM Net Income
After tax (14%)
=$13.13 MM
Shares = 29.9 MM
EPS = $0.44
They pay 60% of income out as a dividend. That's $0.26. Based on a price of $6.44 that equates to a 4.1% dividend. Not too shabby.
Bought back into JCP @ 7.85.
ReplyDeleteACAD?
ReplyDeleteOK, that's enough.
ReplyDeleteLong SPY at $165.74
ReplyDeleteclosed 165.92. huge gain.
Deletelong again at .72
Deletesold at 0.95
DeleteQuite a move in the VIX for a 4% drop in the market. Makes you wonder if people are over reacting huh?
ReplyDeletePeople starting to actually worry about the government mess.
DeleteWhen this gets resolved, market will quickly bounce and likely make back most of this pullback. Question is where does the bounce start from. Still 8 trading days till the drop dead date. Could see a lot of volatility till then.
I'm just watching to see if I can get any great deals on stocks, but not being aggressive as too much uncertainty for me.
The other thing which is surprising to me is that the stocks I own, which tend to be undervalued, smaller companies, not in any indexes/ETF's are actually doing pretty well this month. As of last night, they were up 0.5% for the month, so I'm not getting great opportunities to add to my positions.
ReplyDeleteinteresting that oil and copper were basically unchanged today.
DeleteLooks like good numbers out of Alcoa (AA) today.
ReplyDeleteThis could be a good buy and hold for a couple of years type stock. I'm reading the expensive aluminum smelters are starting to shut down, so if it can get to making over $2.00 like it did in 2006/2007 and people get excited about the stock and put a market multiple of 15 on it, it could be a $30 stock up from $8 now.
Haven't bought yet, but am watching. Maybe this q's numbers are the start.
Too funny. I bought some after hours at 8.03. looks like they're turning it around.
Deleteplus they're trading at a big discount to book. could be a nice long term entry point here.
DeleteAdded more at $8.07
Deletewill add more lower. bought these just in case this runs away. most likely it won't because no one wants to buy stocks right now.
DeleteThe GAZ sisters (U and D) don't ---- around.
ReplyDeleteYou may recall my warning about miners retesting YTD lows. We're getting pretty close to that point.
ReplyDeleteYUM - Half this company's earnings come from Chinese operations. So what's going on in China, competition squeezing them?
ReplyDeleteThe word from Sis:
ReplyDelete(a) “My advice remains the same: focus on long-term fundamentals, take advantage of discounts, and avoid the US Treasury bubble. While unfortunate timing may have cost some gold buyers short-term losses, the difference between $1300 and $1800 for gold will look less important when it is trading at $3000 or $5000.
This much is certain, when QE does unravel, the fallout will be devastating. In the meantime, opportunities abound for the precious metals investors.”
~ Peter Schiff
The above is a perfect example of guru-speak.
(b) By: johnuk (484 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
October 8, 2013 at 3:26 pm
Today been stopped out of nearly all PM miners I had left and SPY,will wait in cash , Pall doing ok though… as are PG and WMT.
DYODD.
The above takes us closer to a bottom. However, it's posted by one of the smarter dudes (ie, those who employ stops). When the panic low arrives, we'll start to hear from traders who talk stops but never use them.
Wonder what Peter Schiff will say if gold retests $1000 or $800 or even $500?
DeleteMy hard-core gold bug friend says you just buy more - the Fed or the Rothchild's are just manipulating the price down to buy cheaper. Now his average cost is $1,250, so will be interesting to see what his attitude is like if/when he is losing money.
DOes Schiff have a stop-loss
I'm thinking the only reason gold exists in the banking system is so central bankers can have a vehicle to steal from taxpayers by selling taxpayer gold to their personal trusts at low prices and then dumping it back on taxpayers AFTER it's moved up.
DeleteIt's amazing to look at some of these charts that look so compressed over a long time frame, only to realize the daily moves are well over 5%.
ReplyDeleteOK, here's the EOD.
ReplyDeleteYRCW -3.5%
RH +1.44%
CCL -.78%
DATE -.01%
Now about 33% long including GMO.
Talisman Energy (TLM) wound up tumbling 2.3% today despite Carl Icahn's disclosure of a 6% stake, suggesting skepticism that he can accelerate a corporate turnaround that may have stalled.
ReplyDeleteTLM has "been at it for a year, so the idea that an activist investor, no matter how aggressive, is going to surface value faster, I think it’s a bit of stretch,” says a portfolio manager at First Asset Investment.
An anticipated breakup or an outright sale is complicated by TLM's joint venture agreement with Sinopec (SNP) in the U.K. North Sea, RBC analyst Greg Pardy says; SNP last year bought a 49% interest in TLM’s U.K. division for $1.5B, and a sale of TLM’s remaining interest requires SNP’s consent.
Asset sales in western Canada have cooled considerably since last year’s frenzy, so potential sales of TLM's Duvernay and Montney holdings could be "a longer grind."
I hope my absence in taking a TLM position spoke for it's self. Ichan losses on this one. BTW, Icah's position is mostly Puts and calls. Very little stock.
DeleteThat is very true. Talisman has been trying to clean up their business for years. I remember when they sold their Sudan properties back in 2003 because their stock was suppressed due to the "Sudan" factor, but they are still having the same issues.
DeleteOn the upside for them, they are one of the few Canadian major oil companies that could be sold as they are not in the oil sands and a lot of their assets are outside Canada, but I think you'd do much better buying a CNQ or SU, both of which I own, plus there are many juniors selling at fractions of their NAV's in Canada now. Some of the European majors like Total and Royal Dutch also look interesting and I also haven't looked closely, but I wonder if XOM is getting buyable after the beating it has had.
TLM, I guess, is really more of a bet on Ichan.
Well, I did notice you didn't take a position but I've seen you pass on good stuff before... Not sayin' it's good stuff, I haven't heard or read much good on it.
DeleteAt least according to Twits, this rally is over. All the CMT's are cashing in.
ReplyDelete
ReplyDelete"Nestle reportedly looking to sell Jenny Craig"... I thought that sort of thing was illegal.
I get it. I bet it's a stink operation.
DeleteRalph Acampora CMT @Ralph_Acampora 16m
ReplyDeleteIf you believe as I do that there will be an eventual resolution to the debt ceiling, then the damage yesterday will eventually be reversed.
*****************
If your a TA guy how do you justify this?
Maybe because Ralphie boy was wrong on the last 2 moves????
DeleteJust in time for December tapering, too.
DeleteThe guy has deftly 'reversed' his opinion at least twice in the past week. If you're a trader, then it's all good> turning on a dime and all. But if you're a tits and ass guy, you're confusing the hell out of your followers.
Delete" Jim Cramer: Sell Carnival, But Buy Celgene and These 2 Stocks "
ReplyDeleteThis isn't helping. Why is it this guy always nails my moves?
Being on the the other side of Cramer is often a good thing.
DeleteBaltic Dry Index new rally high. Not really jiving with the selloff. Overseas markets were strong last night. More evidence of a move away from the US to europe/china/india.
ReplyDeleteOffed JCP premarket @ 7.93.
ReplyDelete'At least according to Twits, this rally is over. All the CMT's are cashing in.'
ReplyDeleteI need a translation.
Re Ralph Acampora, even the TA guys recognize it's limitations in times like these.
ReplyDeleteThe good thing about a news driven environment into earnings season, is that, if you really know a company, it's good results may not get recognized because of the overall environment giving the opportunity to buy some stocks cheaper than they should be. The key is that you have to really know a company and how it trades and be smarter than the market.
ReplyDeleteThat's right, and I'm terrible at it. :)
DeleteAA $8.20 premarket. Looks like it will be one of the times being in Canada and not being able to trade after hours hurt.
ReplyDeleteTCBI - Initiate -> Buy
ReplyDeleteFBP - Broker Price Objective is $9 on this one.
Delete2nd- A lot of the chart guys I follow on Stocktwits bailed yesterday or will today.
ReplyDeleteOK, thanks. What does 'CMT' refer to?
Deletechartered market technician
DeleteLRN getting killed.
ReplyDelete08-Oct-13 06:04PM K12 Plunges 14% After Hours on Lower Guidance at Barrons.com
Delete05:42PM K12 says product, services remains strong at theflyonthewall.com
MW - Beats JCP.......
ReplyDeleteSCCO - If copper is on a roll, you wouldn't know it by looking at this one.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - I see the gap up was closed.a couple days ago.
ReplyDeleteNLS - Are you guys long this one? Could be a good entry?
ReplyDeleteI sold it around $7.1-$7.2.
DeleteSID - This one really took off, along with GGB........
ReplyDeletetell me about it. i watched it go higher and higher with zero entries.
Deleteinteresting chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/message/16363947
SLW @ 21.71...
ReplyDeleteOff @ 21.85...
DeleteTTM - This chart isn't quite what I expected.
ReplyDeleteACAD- That investor presentation yesterday did the trick.
ReplyDeleteThinking about VLO.
ReplyDeleteI might follow you on that one, does look interesting. Especially considering I can't buy UGA!
DeleteThe thing about refiners is they tend to do well as the Brent/WTIC spread widens, or that's the correlation, I think.
DeleteCCL - It's green, HOLY CRAP! :)!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI mean did anyone read the AA earnings? I'd be shocked if that isn't in the teens within 6 months.
ReplyDeletemaybe a year to be conservative...but still. This trades at a huge discount to book and could be doing $0.60+ EPS next year. During turnarounds they value companies at larger multiples to earnings. 20X is certainly possible as the turnaround gains momo.
DeletePicked up some more GPRC at $1.86
ReplyDeleteIndustrial Machinery: Ag equip’t: Europe improves, Brazil remains strong
ReplyDelete13 minutes ago
Sounds of Silence @ the Sis.
ReplyDelete'Hello darkness my old friend I've come to talk with you again'
DeleteI'm gonna freak if silver goes triple digits. One of the pro silver arguments involves smart phones but there's no silver in integrated circuits and that's where they're headed, away from discrete components mounted on a CPB using silver solder and further down the road of high density single device integration. See Samsung's smart watch for proof. (Is that a battery and transceiver stuffed there in your backpack, LOL?)
DeleteZIP Car - Whatever happened to this one, can't locate ticker........
ReplyDeleteI believe they were bought out.
DeleteARR - Refusal to drop............
ReplyDeleteAGO - Coming to us guys, trouble in Puerto Rico is a blessing?????
Sure, I thought about RYTNX @ the 1030 window. Took a pass.
ReplyDelete"Baidu upgraded at Maxim
ReplyDeleteAs previously reported, Maxim upgraded Baidu to Hold from Sell. The firm upgraded shares due to solid core business growth. Price target is $95. "
WTF. Umm it's trading at $143 and it's a hold?
Probably was a sell in the $80's too, I'm still puking, coughing, hacking, choking!
DeleteSomeone forgot to tell VE that we're in a correction.
ReplyDeleteNot ARIA -71% in a day YUM!
Deletethat's a throwback. I remember trading that around $2 a few years ago.
DeleteShort SPY at $165.17
ReplyDeleteStop above $165.3. Not exactly a huge trade just day trading.
DeleteThat was quick
DeleteTLM - Wonder if Ichan's out yet?
ReplyDeleteUHS - New healthcare act requires mental care coveragne, right? UHS already offers mental healthcare.
ReplyDeleteARNA - Crashing fast, too.
ReplyDeleteEPI - Up 2% now, is it real? Looks like it.......
I will be totally shocked if EPI actually rises with India's economy, just like PM miners failed to rise with PM's.
DeleteWho's going to drill the Calif. shale, it's 4x larger than Bakken, right?
ReplyDeleteAfghanistan is world's top producer of opium....... Still, we haven't been able to cheaply synthesize this compound? Let's get busy!
ReplyDeleteWas out all morning and just got back, so decided to pay up for AA ($8.24). It's the type of stock I think could get away from you pretty quickly as it is so beaten down and people know you have to buy it before earnings really improve. With the starting signs of improvement on last night's earnings and concall, it could be time.
ReplyDeleteVE - My turd broker still has a low $11 under perform valuation on that rocketship, despite an 82% growth estimate.. What a rip-off.
ReplyDeleteBrokers are great for research on companies, but crap for buy/sell recomendations. Read the report to understand the business, but make your own call on the stock.
DeleteCCL - Maybe a USCG shut down is tugging this down, a little underwater on this as usual.
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty much just moving in line with the overall market since the big down day on earnings.
DeleteFor me, it is not really a concern as they have good valuation support, good upside and I don't mind being patient. I'm quite confident I will look back on this as a good purchase in the not too distant future.
My impatience has proved opportunity costs are real.
DeleteBitcoins and gold - partners in crime.
ReplyDeleteAnd Silk Road heroin
DeleteRight. I'll admit I'm no angel, but I know one guy who claims to be an angel and simultaneously points out how gold is easily smuggled, thus an attractive feature in his sales pitch.
DeleteUmm, I'm pretty sure smuggling gold is illegal and arguably doesn't seem socially equitable.
LRN - Buy -> Neutral AFTER the drubbing....
ReplyDeleteNotice insiders dumped already.......
DeleteMAN - 10/02/13 Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeleteSorta looks like a double top upgrade, to me.
I'm in complete agreement with Geoff's opening comments here (I've paraphrased his warning re large overnight positions in explaining why I'm not acting on my 'take' today).
ReplyDeleteGold/silver and miners sold off hard this morning, then slowly recovered during the trading session. GDX printed a low of 23.13> that’s pretty close to a ‘test’ of its YTD low of 22.21 (currently trading at 23.90).
What’s my take on the markets here?
(a) I like the miners here.
(b) I like bonds here.
‘Normally,’ I would take positions in RYPMX (miners) and RYGBX (the long bond) at the close. I plan on doing neither. Why? These are precarious times to be trading. With an historic stalemate in Washington, anything can happen. Whatever ‘happens’ is likely to occur overnight. Most importantly, what ‘happens’ is likely to move against you (because you’re trading logically, especially if you’re experienced enough to trade against the crowd).
I don’t have a good rationale with which to back up my take. But I’ve seen it happen too many times. Remember the Seventies 7-Up commercials? This is a time for the ‘Un-Trade.’ Cash is king.
Seems as a refuge, cash is more popular than PM's, recently?
DeleteJPM - Look at that right shoulder, it's not following through on the H&S formation.
ReplyDeletey key board wot let e type 2 letters
ReplyDeleteYou ca't spll ur ame! :)
DeleteDo you look like "The Great Pumpkin" when you're wearing an orange shirt? Does your pumpkin beer mug have a "thick bottom"?
DeletePretty heavy volume today on the futures which is a good thing. Like to see heavy vol as we move lower. Means panic selling. I'm finding some hard to resist prices in certain sectors. There is definitely a change going on away from us and toward Europe / Asia / India. I mentioned this before but I like Peix more and more. Just reminds me a helluva lot like yrcw. Reverse split, years of poor performance, manageable warrants exposure, ridiculous price to sales ratio, potential for massive eps numbers in near future, near term catalysts, and absolutely atrocious sentiment.
ReplyDeletePEIX - looks like a bull flag, maybe?
DeleteOINK - +29% today
ReplyDelete