Friday, November 15, 2013
11/15/13 Paired Trade (RYPMX/ RYWYX)
Whaddup?
The paired trade wafted into consciousness during the noon hour. I tried tweaking it to include an inverse Dow, but the sixth sense rejected that idea.
I see now that RYPMX and RYWYX have a correlation coefficient of -0.38: http://www.invescopowershares.com/tools/correlation.aspx That's the kind of rather uncorrelated split trade I like.
I also like the timing option that RYWYX offers. There is a good chance Emerging Markets pull back early Monday morning, only to reverse to close in the green. Should that scenario unfold, I'm able to close the Rydex fund at the 1030 am est trading window, and immediately switch into RYWVX or EEM. Should I be wrong entirely, I have the flexibility of two trading windows to work with> for instance, I'm able to hedge a gap up in Emerging Markets with an additional position in EEV/EDZ (2x/3x inverse Emerging Markets) until the RYWYX position plays out.
btw, a low correlation with the broader indexes is one reason I'm comfortable holding ZGNX despite a bearish tilt: http://www.invescopowershares.com/tools/correlation.aspx
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Himax reported Q3 earnings last week, and plunged -10%. Note that it's now trading around where I exited my first trade (it went on to hit a high of 11.49!). I'm the kind of guy who will never chase prices, so it's been on the watch list for the past two months. Reopened a starter position today @ 9.20.
ReplyDeleteWhy would open a position where I initially exited? A lot can happen in two months. I now have additional information re institutional demand, earnings projections, and price movements.
I'm a believer in Google Glass.
I want a pair.
Deletehttp://www.google.com/glass/start/how-to-get-one/index.html
DeleteTry applying for one.
I will!!
DeleteIt's worth the 2 minutes on a Sat. night.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/embed/auSo1MyWf8g?rel=0
awesome video.
DeleteAgreed.
DeleteMy favorite quote Buffett:
ReplyDelete“Someone’s sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago. Hard work eventually pays off, so you must be patient and wait for your time to come."
"We are the people our parents warned us about." - Jimmy Buffet?
DeleteSCCO - Back to the lower trend line.
ReplyDeleteSNTA: holy insider buying.
ReplyDeleteLooks like they bought the secondary
DeleteYep, and a huge amount short.
DeleteThat paired trade now looks like a pair of scissors. We all know what scissors are for.
ReplyDeleteIt's all good. I will find an emotional vantage point from which to plan a risk-management stance.
DeleteSheering sheep? A very large pair is good for castrating them, too.
DeleteY'all remember the months we spent watching the markets fall session after session in 2008, and how I would need to come up each day with yet another approach (on the 'ista blog) to viewing the situation? One reader credited my persistence with saving him from despair (although I have to assume he ultimately lost his way).
DeleteMy point? If there's one 'talent' to which I attribute my 'success' in trading, it's the ability to view a bad situation from multiple vantage points, and eventually come up with one that's 'good.' It's that simple.
Good point 2nd.
DeleteSLW @ 21.71...
ReplyDeleteRYWYX on deck for termination @ the 1030 am trading window.
ReplyDeleteWow, look at the intraday for NSPH.
ReplyDeleteThat's JB and his market orders! :)
DeleteINTC - Now trading at 32% gain over it's 52wk low.
ReplyDeletePoor robot got sucker punched on his short 10/23 at 1746
ReplyDeleteThe market is up 12% annualized since May 2011 or 1.11% since 2000. There's always a different way of looking at this meltup in the light of the bigger picture.
ReplyDeleteThe funny part is, it feels more dangerous.
Deletehttp://funnyfilez.funnypart.com/pictures/FunnyPart-com-start_rowing_fast.jpg
I was able to confirm, large diesel engines are using Pd catalytic converters. Wonder how they get around poisoning the element with nasty diesel fuel and engine oil additives?
ReplyDeleteI meant, Pt converters.
DeleteIt's good to have an occasional bad day in the markets. I mean it in the same way it's good to have an occasional bad game. There's just no way around it, bro. Being right all the time just isn't 'real.'
ReplyDeleteSpot silver @ 20.36...
ReplyDeleteSLV @ 19.59...
ReplyDeleteLong UGAZ $14.81. /NG looks very similar to the setup of NOK right before it went from $3.9 to $8 now. My thinking is most bulls have probably moved on...bored with the trade.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking it gets one last shakeout then rips higher.
DeleteEither way I'm gonna go along for the ride and look to add some more if we do get that drop first.
DeleteHere's a shakeout. Added $14.2
Deleteand $14.1
DeleteDry bulk shippers:
ReplyDeletehttp://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2842131919001/big-opportunities-for-investors-in-shipping
Good place on chart to pick up some balt, I've got an GTC to try catching a fake downside breakout of coil.
DeleteGood luck and get ready for some frustration!
DeleteFMAR - Ouchie, damn, worse than slamming ur finger in the car door!
ReplyDeletehaha too funny (on FU (Fab Universal)):
ReplyDelete"i called the headquarters to get company updates, but the call got transferred to a chinese restaurant. so i just ordered kung pao chicken for delivery"
George likes spicy!
DeleteBy the way guys, not sure if you saw the action in China but it was pretty strong. I still think China small caps and anything tied to it are good places to be going forward. I'm biased because i have some positions tied to this theme (BALT, AA, GPRC, and DATE)
ReplyDeleteSLW closed @ 21.49. SLV closed @ 19.64. Will terminate RYPMX @ the close. Update y'all on the numbers later.
ReplyDeleteI had about 30% of the port invested in the split trade, which means I gave back the gains from my last bond trade (in TLT/RYGBX). Win some, lose some.
Delete
ReplyDeleteCNBC staple Maria Bartiromo is moving to Fox Business Network - Drudge Report
Thank God! So sick of her trying to make everything political on her show.
DeleteWell, Dubai submitted an purchase order for 200 777 aircraft, so that ought to be cause for at least some kind of celebration.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to try something different.
ReplyDeleteI think the markets are overvalued (in other words, at this point I agree with Hussman). So I'm going to walk away for awhile.
Back from vacation today. Think I lost a bit of money when I was gone as 2 of my Canadian smallcaps got hammered on bad earnings, but most of the rest of my stocks were flat to up a bit. Oh well, could at least watch along on Wifi - way better than the "old days" 10 years ago when you used to go to the Caribbean and come back and find your portfolio up or (usually) down a few percent.
ReplyDeleteToday was kind of a funny day in that they seemed to be selling off the big winners for the year, but still trying to get caught up, so not sure if there was another theme.
Plus I see our Toronto mayor is still doing us proud: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4siKr6qY8w
Toot, toot!
DeleteOh, and by the way Mark, I owned FONR back 8 or 9 years ago and lost a fair bit of money on it and was shocked to see the jump. But I looked at it after your comment and saw they did a 1 for 25 stock split back in 2007, so still good I sold.
ReplyDeleteIt sure seemed like they had a good concept with the stand-up MRI, but could never gain traction back then.
TAXI - Kicked butt, huh?
ReplyDeleteKB - Closed that gap up, I just noticed....
ReplyDeleteNatty explosion coming up fellas. I can feel it. Which means it dives south!
ReplyDeleteI'm looking at this chart:
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG&p=d1
CP - I don't know if it will actually explode higher but I think the chart setup is there...and I think lots of people have kind of written off an explosion higher after nat gas has traded sideways for 13 months. I think this is only building up pressure for a big move. whether it comes to fruition or not is a different story. i just think the chances are high it does. it really all comes down to sentiment in my opinion.
DeleteGood article debunking many of the "market is a bubble", "corporate profits are too high", etc. concerns, plus specifically addresses Hussman's concerns well I think:
ReplyDeletehttp://macro-man.blogspot.ca/2013/11/is-that-really-reason-to-be-bearish.html
CPB (Campbell's Soup) might be worth a shot on earnings weakness this morning.
ReplyDeleteSeems like the type of stock the dividend growth guys go for and will likely bounce back fairly quickly as these are in short supply.
Haven't decided yet...
Shrinking free cash flow...can it support a growing dividend?
Deletehttp://financials.morningstar.com/cash-flow/cf.html?t=CPB®ion=USA&culture=en-US
DKS - $65 price target
ReplyDeleteBALT - Damn, I knew that was a good entry!
ReplyDeleteDon't worry there will be more of them if recent history is any guide. Today is probably a good exit for all I know.
DeleteXCO- How nice.
ReplyDeleteLooks scary, are you looking for an entry?
DeleteA while ago MOG thought it would work if you believed higher gas prices were coming. Pretty scary looking though, your right.
DeleteLOL, more of the same buy the dip (seems like).
ReplyDeletePKX/KB - Both of these are doing fairly well, which to me indicates Asia is on track.
ReplyDeleteEM's - Wouldn't these ETF's advance if their currency has bottomed?
BB - The one chart that I can't get out of my head anytime I think the market has run up too much is this one:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.gif
anytime I read an article about how people are too bullish I just refer back to this chart. The market is in a new secular bull market and very few of the non-Wall Street crowd believe it or are bullish based on this chart. i like the CNBC indicator. Ratings at all time lows. Thats in part a function of how people consume media but whenever I fly I take notice of how many people on the flight are watching CNBC. no one is. when people are too bullish I guarantee you will see those ratings / anecdotal evidence ratchet up.
And I think we can just dumb it down to those three things to see if there is a market top coming. its easy to overthink it or back up your opinion for why the market is under/overvalued. in my opinion it all comes down to the public sentiment. any stat we want to use can lead us in the wrong direction. P/Es / profit margins / etc at market tops vary so widely.
DeleteEVOK has a 60pt today.
ReplyDeleteinsider buy on BALT on 11/15. Maybe that's why it's rallying today? should fizzle out soon enough.
ReplyDeleteAA doing well today. back to the top of the range though. i will probably try to sell some at $9.20 if it gets there.
Sold AA at $9.19. Let's see if my theory that it revisits sub $9 again comes true.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI agree with your comment on investor bullishness having a long way to go.
One of the things pretty much all the sentiment oriented trades do is look backwards from the current time instead of forward from the last bear market. What they should be doing is comparing sentiments to the last bull markets we had.
So your, Michigan chart could have people saying "sentiment is the highest in 5 years, so sell" (a couple of months ago), but that really means nothing.
A much better analysis is "sentiment is rising off the bottom like it did in 1980 and 1990, but still had a much longer way to go both times, so the bull will likely continue much longer".
Of course every cycle is different, but people so often make the mistake of being backwards looking instead of forwards looking from similar times.
I think the other thing to look at in timing a market top is how individual stocks look.
ReplyDeleteI hope I am smarter this cycle, but I remember in 2007 having a really hard time finding stocks to buy, but was still confident because my stocks (resource heavy) were still doing well. That was a mistake. But currently, it is not hard to find stocks to buy - certainly not as easy as a year ago, but not that hard. That also tells me the market still has room to grow.
When small cap Chinese stocks are trading at 10X earnings (as opposed to 2 to 4 in a lot of cases right now) then there probably won't be many more asset classes that are undervalued.
DeleteI am expecting that China is going to do some good things over the next few years like increasing the consumer economy and improving their banking system and the investibility of their stocks. Maybe a 10 P/E becomes reasonable over the next few years? Would be great for the world economy and stocks in general if it does occur. But wouldn't buy them yet.
DeleteAdded UGAZ at $13.9
ReplyDeleteSCTY - Okay, what's up with this one..... Maybe I should turn the page.
ReplyDeleteBernanke speaks tonight at 19:00, eh? I guess the market always sells off on his podium appearances so maybe tomorrow dip buyers will have something to keep them occupied?
ReplyDeleteOINK - a 45 degree channel looks established, too bad I can't trust anything Chinese, for various reasons.
ReplyDeleteSing it sister.
DeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteI saw Lazy Boy had good numbers today and made me wonder what you are seeing in the furniture business? I still think that there should be some good opportunities in these furniture companies as we come out of the housing recession.
I keep thinking about Italian furniture company Natuzzi (NTZ) as it is good value and there is the ability to reduce costs by moving manufacturing out of Italy, but I would like to see more signs of a turnaround before jumping in.
BB - I still think the furniture industry is undergoing a massive change, but it will take time. People are migrating slowly to the web. I think for retail/chain store specializing in Sofas, Loveseats, Armchairs/lounge chairs should be ok for the foreseeable future because a huge element of furniture buying is testing out the product in person. You can go online and shop for it after testing it out but its not like a lot of other industries where there are specific part numbers or SKU's that are carried by everyone...and if they are they are carried under different names.
DeleteTables, Lights, and Dining Chairs / Restaurant Furniture will continue to sell better online so I'd avoid retail/offline stores that rely on those as a large part of their sales.
The exceptions to all of this are Herman Miller (MLHR) and Knoll (KNL), which have patents on a variety of products and have been successful in enforcing them (they sued one of my suppliers and bankrupted them). They carry a lot of designer type furniture with specific names / SKUs that people look for and are able to charge premium pricing.
It's a very fragmented industry though. I think the key is finding companies that either have an awesome distribution network or popular site. Two privately held up and comers are Wayfair and Belnick. I wouldn't be surprised to see Wayfair go public. They are a huge online retailer.
I sold my DATE today at $6.1. not willing to sit through earnings but still like it for longer term appreciation / div growth.
ReplyDeleteFinally getting down to the nitty-gritty of writing a business plan. I downloaded a great template from Score (score.org). It will likely take weeks to put together, but the template forces you to think things through.
ReplyDeletewhat kind of business?
DeleteSorry I can't discuss online right now. I'll just say that it's related to recent (2013) legislative changes in my field that open up brand new opportunities.
DeleteInteresting...are you raising capital for it?
DeleteSolars decimated today. Let me take the opportunity to repeat one of tof's earlier questions. wtf is wrong with us? We all thought about buying TAN in the teens. Even after today's bloodbath, it closed at 38.
ReplyDeleteThe only sectors still a 'buy' in the same sense are UNG and GDX.
DeleteAt some point (in the case of miners, it may be some time before we get there), they will be buys.
Deletei really think we will look back at dry bulk shippers in a couple of years and say yeah well that one was obvious. i'm assuming there's a nasty wipeout coming first though given how pretty much every bottom works. kind of like buying buying SPF in June of 2011 then watching August-October and thinking it was over...only to see it a year later at 2-3X higher.
DeleteI think it is getting hard to find entire sectors which are good to buy and that it is much more stock specific these days. I could see it becoming more of a "stock-picker" market over the next couple of years.
DeleteBut I think TOF is right and you do want to own a shipping company. The nice thing about NM is they have dry bulk, containers and energy (LNG, oil) ships, and a logistics company, plus a smart manager to allocate capital for you, so you don't have to pick the right sub-segment. Plus a reasonable dividend and good valuation support.
Not as much upside leverage as some of the ones TOF is looking at if you get the subsector right, but I'm OK with that.
A lot of smart money and bottom fishers getting into shipping now with a 3 year view on supply-demand dynamics which should be turning favourable. Plus market leaders like Maersk this week talking about protecting margins and cutting costs and now going after unprofitable growth.
DeleteBB - I do like NM a lot but i like the fact that BALT was created after the crash in spot rates. It's basically like a private equity firm coming in now and buying up ships which is exactly what Wilbur Ross is doing. Plus, their upside leverage is ridiculously high should rates rise and they have a good balance sheet and a nice dividend policy that should grow a lot over the next future. It's not as reliable because spot rates are very volatile, but its nice to have some potential for a lot of income coming from it in big years.
DeleteAny hammers out there?
ReplyDeleteThanks for the furniture info TOF.
ReplyDeletelooks like Wayfair is actually gearing up for an IPO:
Deletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/katieroof/2013/10/21/wayfair-hires-cfo-to-ready-ipo/
they're able to get discounted pricing from my suppliers and skirt around Min Advertised Pricing (MAP) because of volume.
Any interest in a sweet 3 piece sectional Sir?
DeleteI'll admit it. I was nervous about holding my UGAZ after yesterday. Just go up to a +2% overnight move in Nat Gas though. I still think there's at least a small chance yesterday was a shakeout before a monoshot higher.
ReplyDeleteGNK - If you guys want a total and complete crapshoot stock in the baltic dry index then this one is it. They have a ton of debt on hand that is due in the next year but my guess is if the spot rates rise substantially then the lenders will extend maturities. And if this happens they're heavily levered to spot rates with their own ships plus they own a big chunk of BALT and will get large dividend payments from them. Assuming rates double from Q3 2013 rates which would be around 2,500 (vs 1,520 today but still just under half of the highs from 2009/2010) then BALT would do around $1.00 to $1.10 EPS and distributed the majority of that in dividends. GNK would get about a $10 Million dividend distribution on top of its own income (not sure what it would be in that scenario). GNK's market cap is $90 Million. Additionally, in this scenario GNK could sell some of its ships to delever because the price of ships would be higher.
ReplyDeleteIn some ways its like buying the shittiest (i.e., ones with the highest debt) of the casinos in March 2009...maybe LVS or MGM. If rates rise substantially in the near future they could be a 20 bagger.
I personally like BALT the best because the downside risk is manageable but it still has the chance of going up 6 to 10 fold should rates rise to the 2009/2010 levels and it could pay out a $2+ dividend.
Nice research, interesting that GNK took on debt to invest in BALT. I'm still planning on throwing some BALT in the buckboard if she comes back to me.
DeleteYou could definitely see a pullback. DSX dropped hard yesterday and EGLE and GNK have dropped significantly so there's a chance it could feed through to the others.
DeleteJapan's October 2013 trade data were announced on the morning of 20 November. October synthetic resin exports rose to 522,000t from 470,000t in September; positive for petrochemical companies. October steel export volume fell MoM, while import volume rose MoM; somewhat negative for the steel industry.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure why it's somewhat negative, seems like Japan is exporting less and importing more, steel. Why would that be negative?
Depends if the writers are long or short!
DeleteSold UGAZ at $14.18
ReplyDeleteHopped back in at $14.23.
DeleteCCL - I guess if $35.90 resistance is overcome then $36.20 is certain.
ReplyDelete$35.65 was the technical resistance. A, pretty low level, should've been obvious.
DeleteBALT - Needs to clear $4.75
It's trying to hang in there.... Doesn't look promising from a broad perspective, though.
DeleteYou might be right 2nd. Only one low left for GDX to break.
ReplyDeleteOH, new low for GDXJ already!
DeleteFED verbage hawkish in the minutes release...
ReplyDeleteGGN - Cracking like an Toronto governor.
ReplyDeleteThe Fed weighs a bond taper, and the capital markets aren’t happy. DJIA -80, TLT (the long bond) -1.64% (a large move for bond yields), GDX (miners) -4%, EEM (Emerging markets) -1.32%. Is it a buying opp, or a selling cue? I don’t know, and neither does anyone else.
ReplyDeleteLast time, it was a buying op......... :)
DeleteYou're right. It's Whack-A-Mole time again at the Sis.
DeleteI'll hazard a guess that today was not a buying op. It will be a buying op when GDX undercuts the June low and brokers start running stops 'til they've picked up every share on margin.
DeleteLast time we got a big negative reaction. I'd think a lot more of this is built into the market now, so we won't see so much this time.
DeleteThe one thing I don't get still is why the taper is negative. Taper means that the economy is getting better and can grow without Fed support - you'd think that would be a positive. Would not surprise me if we get an initial emotional pullback, followed by a long rise once people realize taper means good things ahead.
Plus if the economy weakens with taper, they could just restart the bond buying again.
I am talking about stocks, not Gold and GDX - they are much harder to figure out. Report out today showing miner supply of gold still increasing in 2014. That will weigh on prices.
DeleteNo worries. It will all be good when silver tops the 100/oz target before year-end.
DeleteBB- I don't think it has anything to do with the taper. Heck, they didn't even say they WOULD taper, they just talked about it. No, it's just another excuse for assets to sell off. Reminds me of a Landryism: Don't confuse the issue with the facts.
DeleteHaha 2nd - thought BC was chiming in there for a second!
DeleteDoes seem like people are anxious to sell by the way winners seem to be getting hit harder. Can't blame them as we've had a really good run since the start of October and people like to protect profits.
100oz/$ ? I thought I'd see BAC trade back to $3 but that hasn't happened either.
DeleteAnd today's winners include...JCP! +8.4!
ReplyDelete+8.4%, that is.
DeleteAccording to UPS tracking, my new bike is currently in South SF. It's status is On Time for an end of day delivery. That bike is going to be A LOT faster than I thought!!!!!
ReplyDeleteBought back DATE going into the close today for earnings. felt like enough was priced in given potential steady dividend growth longer term. They should do about $0.40 to $0.45 non-GAAP EPS this year so the dividend will be around $0.20 to $0.25 (based on up to 60% payout) which means 3.5% to 4% yield. They should grow the dividend to 6% within 2 to 3 years based on my rough estimates of 13% growth. Plus, 50% of the value is in cash. i kind of think this one gets taken out by one of the bigger players. It just fits better in a portfolio like Match.com does with IACI.
ReplyDeleteI like this one.
ReplyDeletehttp://chartupload.com/images/18161148893532817115.jpg
I think this is where to focus our investments for the foreseeable future. the new 10 year plan is definitely investor friendly in my opinion.
Delete"On Nov. 4, 2013, Chairman of Oaktree Capital Group LLC, Howard Marks , said in Shanghai that China's equities are "tremendous bargains" while U.S. stocks are "fairly to fully valued." He believes just as investors were too optimistic on China's market three years ago, now they are too pessimistic. Right now the Shanghai Composite's price-to-book ratio is about half of 2010's level and the P/E multiple is 42% lower. "We are investing in Chinese equities along with emerging markets," Marks said. "Investors have lost all confidence in China."
DeleteAlmost sold my UGAZ into the close as well but decided to see how it plays out.
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/11/20/1-million-in-gold-found-in-airplane-toilet/
ReplyDeleteDude, 50 pounds? I would have thrown it into a dirty bucket, then sent a text to my wife to meet me at the side gate with the trunk open.
Alright, alright. This is a family blog.
DeleteI would have thrown the bars into a dirty bucket, washed my hands, then sent a text to my wife to meet me at the side gate with the trunk open.
ha
DeleteI read this comment from a trader today regarding natty:
ReplyDelete"Did a little bit of historical research. With using the projected stock level that I have for the December 13th report I have us at 3431 BCF in stocks. That is using average weather for that last week so the number could even be lower.
Here is the comparison vs previous years:
2012: (304)
2011: (241)
2010: (42)
2009: (87)
2008: 285 (This inventory was pre shale gas revolution and all prior #s are similar)
5 Yr: (78)
4 Yr: (169)
This is at the start of winter with the smallest stocks since the shale gas revolution where supply and demand have both increased drastically and natural gas prices nearly a dollar less than they were at that time in December 2010 on January 2011 Natural gas despite having approximately 42 BCF less in the tank at that point.
Who wants to be short winter gas at this point?"
While it's always easy to find someone that agrees with your take, it's definitely an interesting one. I'm just looking at the chart man and trying to imagine the sentiment of traders. Everyone was excited about the nat gas rally last year. and it worked well. But the last 6.5 months have been a bitch. I think there's at least a small chance...and that's all that is needed in trading...that nat gas breaks out above 3.88 and if that happens all of the bored traders will rush back into this thing and send prices up to $5 lickety split. Big deal, a 38% move right? Well in the leveraged ETF world, should that happen in a straight line, then that equates to a double.
Keep 1000 shares of UGAZ in the closet. It's almost certain to trade near 20 within a few weeks, just on normal volatility.
DeleteFood for thought:
ReplyDelete'Several weeks ago I remarked: “It appears that capitulation is a lengthy process”… I added later: “In my view, however, we are witnessing the birthing of an elephant”.
We have, possibly, been watching the slaughter of that elephant. But we’ll see.
One must always see the full cycle before deciding on such important matters. The people who are now saying the Goldminers are only now in a Bear are idiots. Pre-schoolers, with one look at the chart today, can tell what’s going on in this market.
A week ago the Senior Goldminers ETF (GDX) was crushed -7.37% W/W. The close was 35.06. This week GDX plummeted -8.10% W/W to close at 32.22.
A week ago I reported: “The Junior Goldminers ETF (GDXJ -8.00% W/W) was even weaker, closing at 15.40.” This week the GDXJ plummeted -9.16% W/W to 13.99.
Four weeks ago I remarked: “I’m not so sure that precious metals are fully based and ready to soar. But I think we are very close.” One week ago I opined: “We are now within one week, I believe.”
That was some week!
We must now be ready! Do you think?'
Taken from WIR #16, published April 2013.
Deletehttps://www.billcara.com/cara-community/bill-caras-week-in-review-16-2013/
Yes, 'idiots' is a relative term, and I would agree that we must always see the full cycle before using such terminology.
Lest you think I'm being too hard, I'm just as hard on myself.
DeleteWas that the last WIR he wrote?
DeleteWhen Kaimu and his sound money bullshit hijacked that site I knew I was a goner. I can appreciate the distaste people have for money printing but I can't relate to that nonsensical, nonstop berating of the system and people that don't conform to that viewpoint. And look where it has gotten the majority of those gold bugs. There may yet be a crash of the financial system but are they any better prepared than the rest of us idiots that chose to ignore it and made money over the past 5 years? Who knows man...in due time I guess.
DeleteWas out for probably my last golf game of the season in 2 degree Celcius weather and my soft core gold bug friend is getting frustrated and starting to see that our hard core gold bug friend may be a 1 trick pony. He just says keep buying as it goes down and wait for the financial cataclysm that will drive gold to $10,000. All of that doomsday stuff plays well to my soft core friend who has completely missed this bull market and lost 30% of his money on gold in the meantime, but he can't give me one example of how the economy is tanking. In fact, when I call my hardcore gold friend on some of his stats, he can't back them up, and just fall back on "It's too complicated for me, but Jim Sinclair, etc. has been a truthteller for 20 years and I believe him".
DeleteSuch B.S. and the sad part is my hardcore friend will do fine because he got a $2 million inheritance a couple years ago, but my softcore friend will probably have to work until he is well over 70, because he got caught up in all this.
I took a big hit on that one too, thanks to you guys I got out when I did though.
DeleteNatty up another $0.03 overnight. Ahhh to hold thru the report or not...
ReplyDeleteEh...sold UGAZ at $14.9X. Bird in the hand.
DeleteYou made the right move. UGAZ is one game you don't play with balls.
ReplyDeleteBusiness as usual at the Sis. When the going gets tough, leave 'em hanging.
ReplyDeleteIt's b/c they're busy covering their short positions.
DeleteAdded to DATE at the open at $5.9
ReplyDeleteI seem to recall EM's traded down on the chance the FED would taper, but was the reversal was August, wasn't the decision(of not yet) in Sept?
ReplyDeleteGDX stopped 0.02 short of its June low.
ReplyDeletePAL - I half expected to see green on this one, guess not.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Okay, I have another GTC order placed, hopefully they smack it down a bit and let me add.
ReplyDeleteALDW - This refinery is sitting on top of the Permian Basin, my understanding is this is the largest oil field in the world. Midland, Tx. sports the highest per capita income in the US
BAS - Remember when I mentioned this one several months back, but couldn't understand why they were losing money?
DeleteI have seen another of the good value guys I follow move into a junior gold, so there is some value in some of these stocks at least, assuming the price of gold doesn't collapse. The value guys typically get in early, but a good price and then ride out the ups and downs and usually make money at the end, but aren't necessarily good timers of the market bottoms.
ReplyDeleteBut, and this is the big but, we could be in the midst of a multi-year bear in which everyone gets crushed, so still better to wait for more data, in my opinion.
An unprecidented slide in the miners, is it b/c China is developing their own ore mines and bypassing the "gougers"? So much housing capacity has already been built, as a very rough totally wild guess I'd say it's probably less than 50% done but the rate will slow some.....???
DeleteXIN - Speaking of housing, I see XIN has pulled back considerably.
RES - Holy Crap, I just looked at this chart......
ReplyDeleteMark - We f'd up by not buying the April smackdown!
DeleteYep, I've made a ton of mistakes the last few months. Luckily mostly small ones.
DeleteXCO- "I Ouit!"... too funny.
ReplyDeleteEEM @ 41.68.
ReplyDeleteWill open RYWVX @ the 1030 am est trading window.
What's RYWVX again?
DeleteCCL - So many gaps in this chart, it's fun looking them over and wondering which ones are likely to fill..
ReplyDeleteBALT - What a yo-yo this thing is, this has to be big boys trying to scare the small fish away from their schools......
ReplyDeleteIDX - Rising off the lower trend line again, despite the FED's going to eventually taper?
ReplyDeleteSLW @ 20.65...
ReplyDeleteRYWVX=Rydex 2x Emerging Markets.
ReplyDeleteFMAR - Still lifting..... Man, I wish I knew how to evaluate something this complex...
ReplyDeleteRLGY - Check out the gap up on earnings, kinda makes real estate look positive.
ReplyDeleteScaling into GDX @ 22.35...
ReplyDeleteYou've got ballz man. I still feel like this is a 2008/9 setup. June was October 2008.
DeleteTXT - Looks good, huh? There's so much stuff that kicks butt in my absence, it's sickening.
ReplyDeleteCADC - 45 degree channel on this one too, green eggs and ham.
ReplyDeleteChina needs airports, TXT makes airplanes and CADC builds concrete structures like runway aprons.
Delete"China eases restrictions on private aircraft travel Reuters"
DEER - Really, this one is paying a dividend? This must not be, a 333% dividend.....
ReplyDeleteARNA - Gap down is filled.
ReplyDeleteSLW/GDX off.
ReplyDeleteGDX - saw this domed-target draw a few minutes ago ... symmetry target of 15 ...
Deletehttp://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=55259&mode=view
Yeah, buy bitcoins instead, LOL....
DeletePACB -44% from 6.50 given back all the gains, tempted.
ReplyDeleteZGNX long at 2.74 jelly bean.
CAF is a way to play SSEC chart Mark posted yesterday.
If you had to pick a play on LT mobile would you pick GOOG or QCOM?
ReplyDeleteOr any other personal favorite?
Does NVDA count?
DeleteSince they operate in PC's and supercomputers, I will say no, looking for a more pure play, most likely QCOM.
DeleteNVIDIA Corporation, a visual computing company, develops graphics chips for use in personal computers (PC), mobile devices, and supercomputers. The company operates through two segments, GPU and Tegra Processors.
Okay, just an idea. I've seen a few articles about NVDA having bought an ARM architecture license. I also read Samsung is actually making the AAPL processor so maybe AAPL will switch to NVDA? Any of this true or of consequence, I dunno.
DeleteWho will actually make the next gen chips, TSMC/INTC, or wouldn't it be funny if it were AMD?
Man, your the best bird to make that call Chickie.
DeleteThe best cat.
DeletePACB- Wow, I hadn't looked at that one for a few days. Like it never happened.
ReplyDeleteDavid Tepper video worth watching:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/appaloosa-s-tepper-says-stock-markets-not-in-bubble-xsuYVJ46Qu6E52XtN0tX6w.html
Calling for a +20% year in 2014. Very logical arguments, unlike Hussman who has been saying we are in the worst 1% of all markets for the last year where we've gone up 30%. Or I could have said a guy who has averaged 30% a year for last 25 years as opposed to Hussman who is barely above his issue price 12 years ago.
I honestly think there's a chance we get +20% the more I've been thinking about it. It would take Europe and China doing well. And if that happens you know which group which perform the best.
DeleteThat Stephanie Ruhle is a good looking woman. She actually went to my college. I think she graduated a few years before me.
DeleteFMAR - Do you like that move?
ReplyDeleteFU - Hot damnie, Lupe!
ReplyDeleteJimmy Rodgers is buying!
DeleteThat's what I'm always afraid of with these.
DeleteBoy, it's really quite out there. Maybe just people closing up shop before next week.
ReplyDeleteMarket is pretty boring a lot these days. But it keeps grinding upwards, so no complaints.
DeleteWish I could say the same!
DeleteI hope they have one last drop in BALT to clear out longs. I'll be buying.
ReplyDelete