Good year to buy cheap and hold for a while like I do. Not too many pullbacks and the ones we've had have been small and hard to buy, so if you sold, it was almost always wrong.
One of my goals to improve my trading is to try and better identify where we are in the market cycle and buy stocks accordingly. So, for 2014, cheap stocks are getting harder to find, so I think for 2014, the trend will be to buy reasonably priced stocks that grow with the economy.
If you look at the very long term chart on AA, it is not like a miner, but more of an industrial with a steady rise from $0.90 in 1972 to over $40 in 2008. It seems to have completed it's bottoming since the crash, so my thinking is we get into another long, steady uptrend. They are one of the lowest cost producers, smart guys making smart investments, and the fundamentals for aluminum (low weight, no rusting) should provide growing demand in aerospace, automotive, etc. for many years.
Shipper NM also up on earnings this morning. From the press release:
"So far in 2013, we have raised over $2.3 billion and agreed to acquire 44 vessels at attractive prices."
Pretty aggressive for a company with less than a $800 million market cap, but they've also lowered operating expenses, so will have great upside leverage should rates move upwards.
Not the greatest earnings report...BALT had the best report in the entire sector in terms of top line growth. My take on the purchases we have seen with NM and BALT is they're taking advantage of low prices and they're the smart money. Wilbur Ross is right in there buying with them. The demand was never the issue with this industry. It was oversupply. There's no question that supply will be worked off...and in my opinion everyone will be hesitant to overbuild for many years because of what they just went through. It's no different than housing in my opinion.
With all this bubble talk, I was curious to see how the stock market has performed compared with the unemployment rate. Not surprisingly, stocks have done better when unemployment is higher.
I looked at all the data from 1948 though 2012. When the unemployment rate was below 6%, stocks delivered a real annualized return of 3.19%. Below 4%, stocks have been nearly flat.
But when the unemployment rate was over 6%, the real return jumped to 14.68%.
I think I mentioned DUST a couple of months ago as looking very similar to FAZ back in the 2008/9 crash. Sure looks like it's playing out that way. Sucks for the bulls. I do feel for them. Not easy to go through that crap even if you don't buy and hold.
ADES $53 today. Wow. I was in this at $5 and I just looked and the same guys that were on the message boards are still in it. Hopefully they know when to bail.
i've been looking into BSBR. Valuation looks good. BB knows more about it than I do but this is getting to a pretty logical entry point because there should be some support here.
Still holding BSBR. It is held hostage to the emerging markets sentiment in general, but it's still good value and they are doing things like the refinancing to improve shareholder returns, so will do well unless broader concerns trump.
Seems to be cold in a lot of areas early this year, so that should halp nat gas demand.
NWLI up over 2% to $212 today on no news. Maybe getting ready to start its next leg up. Could be bouncing off the bottom of the channel which has been in place for a year and a half and would target to around $260.
Other than since the financial crisis, still the cheapest on a P/B basis that lifeco's are generally valued on since 1994, earnings are good, investments are conservative, etc.
Hope CP did get his fill on this in the low $200's.
Yes, I was able to get my two orders filled in the very low $200's (one filled below the day's low print, wierd!) thanks for the idea on this one along with CCL! :)
I was actually hoping NWLI would revisit the low 200's (for a knockout lower) again so I could take advantage but alas that opportunity hasn't presented itself yet.
I guess I'm gonna have to do AA on a gap-up fill, still not sure about dry shipping but BALT is my target there. GS upgrade might be the cue for a beating? Doubtful, I know, considering it seems growth is upon us and the great entries were earlier this year.
I hear UPS (or was it FEDX?), said they're anticipating a 10% increase in sales over last year's holiday season.
Wonder if any of today's chasers will be facing the music this week?
I kinda agree we should be anticipating a buying op in EM's, taper talk might bang them down for us or at least keep them from taking off without us? That might be wishful thinking, always expect the unexpected, right?
The patient had both lungs drained, a liter of fluid from one and nearly a liter from the other, doing better but had some issues with atrial fibrillation, I'm thinking it may have been caused by an air bubble in the bloodstream? Two broken legs, all ribs broken, and now they found a sternal fracture.
The atrial fibrillation was probably caused by the accident. Broken ribs + sternal fracture indicate blunt trauma to the chest, which can inflame the lining of the heart and lead to afib.
(a) EEM -1% to 41.63. Not exactly unexpected, and justifies my current risk-averse stance. Reopening positions in EEM/ RYWVX is a consideration, but probably not today. (b) GDX did in fact plunge over -3% this morning to set a new YTD low of 21.52. Apparently miners found buyers at those levels, as GDX is now green @ 22.32. I don’t know if I would have bought at the lows, but I’m certainly not buying now.
NWLI - Dang, it sure did break out! These breakouts so far into the apex are supposed to be false in most instances, but I really have doubts this one is fake. I WILL add if it's proven false, or maybe I should not worry about playing the stupid game and just add before it rips even higher!?!?!?!
Glad you cleared that up. Was wondering if you were referring to a stock in deep trouble or something. As for me I have quit trading but still follow the market daily and my port and this blog and the other one.
URA - Pretty good volume today, not sure if this was good or not or if it has anything to do with the Iranian agreement, oversold speculation, momentum players? A couple of decent days for URG as well, I guess we see what/if something happens at $1.22
I was thinking just last night of looking for something in that sector, but more like a premises security firm. Started thinking about this just after watching a Samuel L. Jackson movie "The Cleaner", where he had his own business cleaning up residential death scenes.
2nd, seems like the market wants to go up in anticipation of the improving economy. Think about how good next year could be without the sequester which took 1.5% off GDP growth, with still low rates and the world normalizing.
Technically, from Ryan Detrick:
The SPX is up a very impressive seven straight weeks. What is even more surprising is this is actually bullish.
That’s right, after being up seven straight weeks, the returns going out anywhere from a week to 2-months are actually better than the anytime returns since 1980. In fact, 89% of the time the SPX is up two months from now. Not bad.
Sure this is rare and this is just 10th time it has happened since 1980, but be aware that this much strength usually resolves with higher prices.
There are two accounts over which I exercise no control (the decision is out of my hands for the former, and by mutual agreement with my wife for the latter):
(a) A 'notional' account managed by my employer, into which the company contributes 6% of my annual gross each year. The account was originally guaranteed to grow by 6% annually. Two years ago, due to the low rate environment, they changed it to a guaranteed 5% (keeping any balances prior to that at 6%/yr). I have no idea how they fund the plan, but it couldn't possibly be a simple bond fund. (The company also offers a 3% match in the 403b, so it's a decent retirement benefit> 9% of my gross each year entirely funded by them. Naturally, I also contribute the maximum allowable amount for my age bracket to the 403b.)
(b) A 529 for the big guy, which was intentionally placed into buy-and-hold mode years ago. It's doing quite well, now in 6 figures.
I trade everything else as best I can. Obviously, some years have been better than others. After all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to find that we all end up more or less in the same place.
And I do mean big...seen here on the right: http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://lolfed.com/wp-content/uploads/dan_meyers_sailing.jpg&imgrefurl=http://lolfed.com/2010/08/13/the-case-of-dan-meyers-v-sailing-anarchy-get-some-snacks/&h=276&w=480&sz=80&tbnid=nJCdE5tiZC__zM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=157&zoom=1&usg=__YUqCVbBxgnWvpp04boiprb0zGpw=&docid=Ln9roOsSGjm19M&sa=X&ei=QBCUUs3IDoevsQTMmoHwCg&ved=0CD0Q9QEwAg
I think this device is converting the solar cell DC to power-grid quality AC right at the solar cell, as opposed to collecting all the DC together for conversion by a single(or just a few), larger inverter.
ie: The DC is converted to grid-AC at the point of generation. That what it sounds like.
ENPH- All I know on my end is they make the best inverters. TOF- They make small inverters that work on a single panel. This way each panel has max out put. You also get much better data back as you can see each panels production. The Co. has also made some other small produts, but none that seem significant to me. Thermostats, etc.
"You also get much better data back as you can see each panels production." That's a good point, it allows vastly greater capability to monitor performance of the individual panels.
Insiders have $32m of their own money tied up in it (11.4% ownership), and institutional participation of 67% with 5% of that recently added (within the last three months?)looks pretty decent.
Wonder if they'll have to dilute in the near future and that's why it's traded off the highs?
Good deal. He also has Archive folders on the RHS if you scroll down which makes it easy to see the 60min wave-counts from months past. His current charts are at http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp with the color scheme.
cash flows are still negative...they jump around a lot but looks like they should have about 8 to 10 quarters of cash left. i think they probably will have to do a stock offering unless they grow quick enough. haven't looked at it closer. love the top line growth and the tie in with solar. also think they may have some potential with mobile / remote management stuff but i don't really know the business model well enough.
Converting DC to AC is not a new idea, nor should be attaching multiple small converters directly to solar panels as opposed to a few large ones somewhere in the basement.
Competitors would be the usual suspects, basically anyone capable of building a quality power supply.
A couple of obvious possibilities might be if a large solar wanted to absorb them, or possibly they quickly gain market share. Another nice feature about this approach is it's easily scalable, add additional solar cells with microconverters attached as you go.
I just saw a bullish article by All Star Charts on Nat Gas should it break above resistance at $3.87. As such, I'm now thinking it will take another month or two before a true breakout occurs. I want no one to be looking for it.
Blow your hair back? Not quite the way we all thought, but right on.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/jc-penney-to-leave-sp-500-after-stock-decline-2013-11-22?link=MW_latest_news
ReplyDeleteSpot silver back to one of favorite years, 1969.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Those of you with Netflix> you cannot afford to miss the British miniseries 'Hidden.' Awesome.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteGood year to buy cheap and hold for a while like I do. Not too many pullbacks and the ones we've had have been small and hard to buy, so if you sold, it was almost always wrong.
One of my goals to improve my trading is to try and better identify where we are in the market cycle and buy stocks accordingly. So, for 2014, cheap stocks are getting harder to find, so I think for 2014, the trend will be to buy reasonably priced stocks that grow with the economy.
AA upgraded by GS this morning - maybe we get some more interest in the stock.
ReplyDeleteNice uptick on premarket. I'm probably just going to buy and hold this sucker. Slow and steady wins this race on this one.
DeleteIf you look at the very long term chart on AA, it is not like a miner, but more of an industrial with a steady rise from $0.90 in 1972 to over $40 in 2008. It seems to have completed it's bottoming since the crash, so my thinking is we get into another long, steady uptrend. They are one of the lowest cost producers, smart guys making smart investments, and the fundamentals for aluminum (low weight, no rusting) should provide growing demand in aerospace, automotive, etc. for many years.
DeleteHere is a link to the Supramax index which has a larger impact on BALT's business right now:
ReplyDeletehttp://hudsonshipping.com/?q=node/63
As you can see, while the BDI has pulled back, the Supramax index hasn't pulled back at all.
JCP off @ 9.14.
ReplyDeleteShipper NM also up on earnings this morning. From the press release:
ReplyDelete"So far in 2013, we have raised over $2.3 billion and agreed to acquire 44 vessels at attractive prices."
Pretty aggressive for a company with less than a $800 million market cap, but they've also lowered operating expenses, so will have great upside leverage should rates move upwards.
Not the greatest earnings report...BALT had the best report in the entire sector in terms of top line growth. My take on the purchases we have seen with NM and BALT is they're taking advantage of low prices and they're the smart money. Wilbur Ross is right in there buying with them. The demand was never the issue with this industry. It was oversupply. There's no question that supply will be worked off...and in my opinion everyone will be hesitant to overbuild for many years because of what they just went through. It's no different than housing in my opinion.
DeleteGDX now well below the June lows.
ReplyDeleteWith all this bubble talk, I was curious to see how the stock market has performed compared with the unemployment rate. Not surprisingly, stocks have done better when unemployment is higher.
ReplyDeleteI looked at all the data from 1948 though 2012. When the unemployment rate was below 6%, stocks delivered a real annualized return of 3.19%. Below 4%, stocks have been nearly flat.
But when the unemployment rate was over 6%, the real return jumped to 14.68%.
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2013/11/buy-when-others-are-fearful.html
As previously noted, when the going gets tough> total silence is the standard support offered at the Sis.
ReplyDeleteI think I mentioned DUST a couple of months ago as looking very similar to FAZ back in the 2008/9 crash. Sure looks like it's playing out that way. Sucks for the bulls. I do feel for them. Not easy to go through that crap even if you don't buy and hold.
DeleteWell, what would you expect when "The blog currently reaches 300,000 readers worldwide."
DeleteBack in UGAZ at $15.77
ReplyDeleteSmall position. I like the gap fill and am looking for a short trade.
DeleteWow that was quick. Sold at $15.95
DeleteBack in at $15.86
DeleteADES $53 today. Wow. I was in this at $5 and I just looked and the same guys that were on the message boards are still in it. Hopefully they know when to bail.
ReplyDeleteI sense no panic in the gold sector. Anyone else?
ReplyDeleteI'm also considering a rerun on the EEM trade. Any opinions?
ReplyDeletei've been looking into BSBR. Valuation looks good. BB knows more about it than I do but this is getting to a pretty logical entry point because there should be some support here.
DeleteOr you could just buy UGAZ and sell it at $25.
Nat Gas chart looks ready to really rip higher. Doesn't mean it will but I think there's a growing chance of a moonshot higher.
DeleteStill holding BSBR. It is held hostage to the emerging markets sentiment in general, but it's still good value and they are doing things like the refinancing to improve shareholder returns, so will do well unless broader concerns trump.
DeleteSeems to be cold in a lot of areas early this year, so that should halp nat gas demand.
NWLI up over 2% to $212 today on no news. Maybe getting ready to start its next leg up. Could be bouncing off the bottom of the channel which has been in place for a year and a half and would target to around $260.
ReplyDeleteOther than since the financial crisis, still the cheapest on a P/B basis that lifeco's are generally valued on since 1994, earnings are good, investments are conservative, etc.
Hope CP did get his fill on this in the low $200's.
Yes, I was able to get my two orders filled in the very low $200's (one filled below the day's low print, wierd!) thanks for the idea on this one along with CCL! :)
DeleteI was actually hoping NWLI would revisit the low 200's (for a knockout lower) again so I could take advantage but alas that opportunity hasn't presented itself yet.
I guess I'm gonna have to do AA on a gap-up fill, still not sure about dry shipping but BALT is my target there. GS upgrade might be the cue for a beating? Doubtful, I know, considering it seems growth is upon us and the great entries were earlier this year.
I hear UPS (or was it FEDX?), said they're anticipating a 10% increase in sales over last year's holiday season.
Wonder if any of today's chasers will be facing the music this week?
I kinda agree we should be anticipating a buying op in EM's, taper talk might bang them down for us or at least keep them from taking off without us? That might be wishful thinking, always expect the unexpected, right?
The patient had both lungs drained, a liter of fluid from one and nearly a liter from the other, doing better but had some issues with atrial fibrillation, I'm thinking it may have been caused by an air bubble in the bloodstream? Two broken legs, all ribs broken, and now they found a sternal fracture.
The atrial fibrillation was probably caused by the accident. Broken ribs + sternal fracture indicate blunt trauma to the chest, which can inflame the lining of the heart and lead to afib.
Delete(a) EEM -1% to 41.63. Not exactly unexpected, and justifies my current risk-averse stance. Reopening positions in EEM/ RYWVX is a consideration, but probably not today.
ReplyDelete(b) GDX did in fact plunge over -3% this morning to set a new YTD low of 21.52. Apparently miners found buyers at those levels, as GDX is now green @ 22.32. I don’t know if I would have bought at the lows, but I’m certainly not buying now.
Opened TZA @ 19.20.
ReplyDeleteRobot refuses to flip long from his short at 1746..... I don't see nuthin' but blue sky.
DeleteMy puppy's favorite 3lb bag of frozen boneless chicken breasts has jumped a couple bucks to $9!
ReplyDelete(I eat 'em some, too).
CALM - We coulda bought that pullback to $46.......
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Sure looks like a bull flag to me.
NWLI - Dang, it sure did break out! These breakouts so far into the apex are supposed to be false in most instances, but I really have doubts this one is fake. I WILL add if it's proven false, or maybe I should not worry about playing the stupid game and just add before it rips even higher!?!?!?!
ReplyDeleteGood solid volume too, for one that trades so thin that's sayin' something so I think this one's gonna just keep ripping higher....
DeleteCP, what are you talking about with regards to the patient?
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, we had a family member involved in a car accident. Rear-ended a Jeep something, with a Toyota.
DeleteGlad you cleared that up. Was wondering if you were referring to a stock in deep trouble or something. As for me I have quit trading but still follow the market daily and my port and this blog and the other one.
DeleteHow's things going illini, hope ur doing fine! :)
DeleteDoing well now. After having 5 pints of blood dripped into my chest cavity earlier this year. One never knows .
Deletewtf. TZA closes @ 19.03. They can't keep this market down.
ReplyDeleteURA - Pretty good volume today, not sure if this was good or not or if it has anything to do with the Iranian agreement, oversold speculation, momentum players? A couple of decent days for URG as well, I guess we see what/if something happens at $1.22
ReplyDeleteBALT - Man, no volume....
ReplyDeleteRevShark's stock of the week? TASR. You all remember that dude, right?
ReplyDeleteNot sure, if it's our sharkie then yes, else not really. He'd picked NQ at some point I think is what I recall?
DeleteI was thinking just last night of looking for something in that sector, but more like a premises security firm. Started thinking about this just after watching a Samuel L. Jackson movie "The Cleaner", where he had his own business cleaning up residential death scenes.
DeleteI enjoyed The Cleaner.
DeleteRevShark is James DePorre: http://www.sharkinvesting.com
Sorry, my point was y'all remember TASR, right? That dude killed more shorts than KKD in its heyday.
Delete2nd, seems like the market wants to go up in anticipation of the improving economy. Think about how good next year could be without the sequester which took 1.5% off GDP growth, with still low rates and the world normalizing.
ReplyDeleteTechnically, from Ryan Detrick:
The SPX is up a very impressive seven straight weeks. What is even more surprising is this is actually bullish.
That’s right, after being up seven straight weeks, the returns going out anywhere from a week to 2-months are actually better than the anytime returns since 1980. In fact, 89% of the time the SPX is up two months from now. Not bad.
Sure this is rare and this is just 10th time it has happened since 1980, but be aware that this much strength usually resolves with higher prices.
Here are the results.
http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/study-of-the-week-dont-fear-the-number-seven/id=7236
I don't necessarily disagree. But I won't chase prices. If I get long (the US indexes), it will be on a pullback.
Delete2nd, do you have any long term money in the market (like in a retirement account) or are you a pure short term trader?
DeleteThere are two accounts over which I exercise no control (the decision is out of my hands for the former, and by mutual agreement with my wife for the latter):
Delete(a) A 'notional' account managed by my employer, into which the company contributes 6% of my annual gross each year. The account was originally guaranteed to grow by 6% annually. Two years ago, due to the low rate environment, they changed it to a guaranteed 5% (keeping any balances prior to that at 6%/yr). I have no idea how they fund the plan, but it couldn't possibly be a simple bond fund. (The company also offers a 3% match in the 403b, so it's a decent retirement benefit> 9% of my gross each year entirely funded by them. Naturally, I also contribute the maximum allowable amount for my age bracket to the 403b.)
(b) A 529 for the big guy, which was intentionally placed into buy-and-hold mode years ago. It's doing quite well, now in 6 figures.
I trade everything else as best I can. Obviously, some years have been better than others. After all is said and done, I wouldn't be surprised to find that we all end up more or less in the same place.
Value guy Tim Melvin and value fund Royce Funds liking BALT:
ReplyDeletehttp://timmelvin.blogspot.ca/2013/11/stealing-from-best-13f-review.html
Maybe it would be smart to spread the risk out in the shippers like they are.
DeleteBeware...FMD was in EJF's corner as well. We all got hoodwinked by big ole Danny Meyers.
DeleteAnd I do mean big...seen here on the right:
Deletehttp://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://lolfed.com/wp-content/uploads/dan_meyers_sailing.jpg&imgrefurl=http://lolfed.com/2010/08/13/the-case-of-dan-meyers-v-sailing-anarchy-get-some-snacks/&h=276&w=480&sz=80&tbnid=nJCdE5tiZC__zM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=157&zoom=1&usg=__YUqCVbBxgnWvpp04boiprb0zGpw=&docid=Ln9roOsSGjm19M&sa=X&ei=QBCUUs3IDoevsQTMmoHwCg&ved=0CD0Q9QEwAg
Long a chunk of UNG at $18.724 for a possible day trade or longer if the morning lows hold.
ReplyDeleteFRO - This one didn't move much on the Iranian news..... This one might be done-for?
ReplyDeleteOSTK - That was a successful test of the 200SMA
ReplyDeleteOverstock.com Named: Best Retail Mobile App PR Newswire
DeleteWonder if they developed it in-house?
GMO- Hard to believe I actually started this latest washout.
ReplyDeleteWhiting Petroleum Corp.: Highlighting the rate change: Reinstate at Buy
ReplyDeleteBALT - Something about $4.71 is key....
ReplyDeleteBDI was up nicely today. It seems like the pullback may be ending. Year end rally???
DeleteSolar converters - Mark, what was that ticker?
ReplyDeleteENPH. My buddy says they will have actual earnings next Q. Thier inverters are used on everything we install. (Small sample)
DeleteThanks, ENPH is testing the 200SMA here, too.
DeleteSo what's your take on the installs you've coordinated?
DeleteBSBR- I believe this is right about where I sold it.
ReplyDeleteOff TZA @ 19.06.
ReplyDeleteENPH - What is a microinverter?
ReplyDeleteI think this device is converting the solar cell DC to power-grid quality AC right at the solar cell, as opposed to collecting all the DC together for conversion by a single(or just a few), larger inverter.
Deleteie: The DC is converted to grid-AC at the point of generation. That what it sounds like.
NWLI - Noticing there's no rush towards the exit.
ReplyDeleteCCL - Climbed back over $36, $36.20 wold be nice to see.
NUAN - LOL, what a mess.
The US indexes won't stay down.
ReplyDeleteThe miners won't stay up.
ENPH- All I know on my end is they make the best inverters. TOF- They make small inverters that work on a single panel. This way each panel has max out put. You also get much better data back as you can see each panels production. The Co. has also made some other small produts, but none that seem significant to me. Thermostats, etc.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, CP is right. DC converted to AC.
Delete"You also get much better data back as you can see each panels production."
DeleteThat's a good point, it allows vastly greater capability to monitor performance of the individual panels.
CAT - Lots of upgrades on this bird.
ReplyDeleteBALT - This could be the shakeout that always precedes the rip higher.
ReplyDeleteENPH - BACML 12mo price objective is $12
ReplyDeleteInsiders have $32m of their own money tied up in it (11.4% ownership), and institutional participation of 67% with 5% of that recently added (within the last three months?)looks pretty decent.
DeleteWonder if they'll have to dilute in the near future and that's why it's traded off the highs?
NWLI - Okay, I want to add onto this one so I'll wait and see what the second half of the day looks like before making any moves.
ReplyDeleteLooks like someone has discovered it's trading at a discount.
Delete1608 - We need to see a close above this level soon, that might be a good place to try putting on a short hedge?
ReplyDelete1808, gimme 200 pts on that.
DeleteIf you're interested, this guy does a really good job on EW analysis, especially his weekend updates...
Deletehttp://caldaro.wordpress.com/
Yes, thanks! As the near future morphs into recent history.....
DeleteGood deal. He also has Archive folders on the RHS if you scroll down which makes it easy to see the 60min wave-counts from months past. His current charts are at
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp with the color scheme.
I like the ENPH idea a lot.
ReplyDeleteAlthough I don't know sh*t about what all of that stuff you guys said above means.
DeleteLook over the finances and see if you think they may need to raise capital?
DeleteDoubled down on UNG at $18.62
ReplyDeleteI think you were spoiled while living in SD, LOL! :) It's a cold drizzle down here today, thankfully not freezing sleet as earlier predicted.
DeleteThe action in natty lately is extremely bullish. I think the odds of a huge move higher (i.e., to $5ish) are growing by the minute.
DeleteSold the UNG at $18.8. When this was down a good deal this morning from the highs I was thinking it would be a flat day. I'm keeping the UGAZ though.
DeleteSold UGAZ at $16.42. hoping to get back in around $16.2 if not I will probably buy in by the end of the day
DeleteWhat is the competition for ENPH?
ReplyDeletecash flows are still negative...they jump around a lot but looks like they should have about 8 to 10 quarters of cash left. i think they probably will have to do a stock offering unless they grow quick enough. haven't looked at it closer. love the top line growth and the tie in with solar. also think they may have some potential with mobile / remote management stuff but i don't really know the business model well enough.
DeleteConverting DC to AC is not a new idea, nor should be attaching multiple small converters directly to solar panels as opposed to a few large ones somewhere in the basement.
DeleteCompetitors would be the usual suspects, basically anyone capable of building a quality power supply.
From a technical perspective, without knowledge of any particular patents that may exist.
DeleteA couple of obvious possibilities might be if a large solar wanted to absorb them, or possibly they quickly gain market share. Another nice feature about this approach is it's easily scalable, add additional solar cells with microconverters attached as you go.
DeleteI just saw a bullish article by All Star Charts on Nat Gas should it break above resistance at $3.87. As such, I'm now thinking it will take another month or two before a true breakout occurs. I want no one to be looking for it.
ReplyDeleteJust thought about Jessie and wondered how he was doing (I had to stop following him on Twitter as he tweeted too much for me).
ReplyDeleteBut, his book is now ranked the #15 book of books on Stocks on Amazon - pretty impressive!
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/books/2674/ref=pd_zg_hrsr_b_1_4_last
NWLI - This one is moving guys, next leg up is in progress.
ReplyDelete$242 is the ST target area, the flag coil sure was an extended one, perhaps due to normally thin volume? Gotta love these thin volume plays...
DeleteLove em when you're in but not when you want to get out!
DeleteI feel often volume comes at a premium.
DeleteSCCO - Now under $25, remember last time I was going to buy here a couple years back but neglected to then agonized over not buying?
ReplyDeleteIDX - Looks like a hammer formed/
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete