The next big trade may be Brazil/Russia/India/China. Dave Folds nails current sentiment in the BRIC sector. Investors will be spinning a different tune Christmas 2014.
Baltic dry index up another 2.8% to 2,299. At this current rate over an entire quarter BALT would earn $0.08 EPS without the upcoming expansion of its fleet and taking into account the share dilution associated the recent expansion. Including the benefits of the expanded fleet in terms of revenues, they would earn $0.18 EPS at the current rate over an entire quarter. Revenues would be triple what they were in Q3.
The average BDI is now up to 1,792 for Q4 vs 1,293 for Q3.
The consensus is still that this is a seasonal thing and will revert back in Q1.
The chumps will line up around the block, you know they will. Hilton IPO by Blackstone to be priced today, does an IPO simply mean they're cashing out?
TLT giving up most of Tuesday's run-up. EEM giving it back and then some, down -1.33% (which translates into -2.7% for RYWVX). 2013 has been the year of dodging bullets. Hit-and-run has not been a bad strategy.
Its actually weak when you compare it to DRYS, EGLE, and NM. But I get your point. I think it's a bit of guilt by association with GNK??? Not really sure. I suspect if GNK gets a big dilution event there might be a chance of adding more at a discount. We'll see.
My thinking with the overall market is still that the public hasn't fully embraced stocks. I see the Univ of Mich sentiment report and it makes me think we have much more to go on the upside over the longer term. The short term is probably dicey and I think we still get a 4 to 5% pullback at some point fairly soon.
The other thing I like to look at is the VIX and that still tells me there is skepticism. I think we see single digit VIX readings before its all over.
Wild...goes completely counter what the rational response would be to a big up year: http://ryandetrick.tumblr.com/post/69093307393/why-the-spx-will-no-doubt-be-higher-12-months-from
Also, just saw that the RUT is down almost 4% from highs. Perhaps the 5% correction comes in this index since its the leader and typically you get a 5% correction from what I've found after a big year+ rally, which is used to reset the market so that it can rally even further.
BSBR as well, for that matter, FBP has already had several days of punishment so maybe FBP was a leading indicator?
US Dollar going to head up soon or where will the capital go, maybe commodities, considering global economies are strengthening? Hey, maybe all the capital will flow into BALT! :)
Remember to keep an eye on those sectors / stocks that are performing well on a day like today. I hope we get one more big down day tomorrow. That will add some fear into the market. There is already a nice 8% spike in the VIX today. Up 23% from the lows 2 weeks ago.
"If you're looking to play a rebound in small cap oil stocks, you may want to take a closer look at Vantage Drilling (NYSE: VTG), Halcon Resources (NYSE: HK), TransAtlantic Petroleum (NYSE: TAT), and Hercules Offshore (NASDAQ: HERO)."
Similar to the cash-flow positive miner I bought into as it was pumped by the sista, which mysteriously and promptly lost 15% the very next day, an unpleasant hit to my account from which I have yet to recover. Thanks, sista!
I really don't think that this is the top of the market. People have a lot of profits to protect and are using the budget / taper news as an excuse. Maybe this is part of a 5% or even 10% pullback, but no way I think this can be the end of the bull market. It just doesn't make sense as the economy will grow next year, inflation is weak (low rates), and there is a lot of slack in the economy.
We need to get some real excesses in the economy (or at least the market) before we are ready for a bear market.
Take a look at for reasons why the economy will be good in 2014:
I haven't said anything about this being a market top. I still think we end 2014 higher (significantly higher) than where we are now. I just think we're overdue for a correction.
Opened a small (1000 share) position in IMUC @ 1.24. I have no insight into the results of the clinical trial, nor any info beyond the fact that price dropped -50% to a 2-year low.
'You have a call.' 'I'm not here.' 'But John, it's the back line, the 'Bat' phone. It's been ringing off the hook.' 'I know!' 'What should I tell them?' 'Look, I don't have an answer right now!' 'John?' '----!'
1700 - Resistance at 1700 lasted for at least 2-1/2 months and we even dropped back through 1600 during the process, any reason to believe 1800 might pose any less of a challenge?
Gold is firming up from the painful, debilitating double bottoms and is setting up a move to switch its gear from sliding to climbing.
Over the next 9 months, gold will climb to the price target of $1650; such a move will give gold stock investors a plethora of happiness in the form of a likely double return.
Best Regards, Harp
Add your comment → 5 Comments
Based on... [#122154] By: Dave M (437 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑ December 9, 2013 at 3:29 pm
Based on what?
Hear hear... [#122155] By: c3wands (71 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑ December 9, 2013 at 3:33 pm
Actually, Jack was just reposting a comment from 'Harp.' He was introduced to the community last year, and due to his very limited input, I'm still not sure what to make of him.
Wait I thought old Jimmy said "Today, Mitek has a more diversified product and patent portfolio with momentum going into 2014." That guy gives me the heebie jeebies when he reads his written statements during earnings calls. I feel like I'm at a used car dealership.
Having said that, I still can't figure out if more people expect a Fed induced selloff or if they think it doesn't matter. That's the ultimate arbiter of the near term direction of the market most likely. Not that it really matters but it does to a lot of us schmucks that like to waste time speculating on the overall direction of the market.
This is one of the few financial blogs (if not the only) where music and trading are treated with equal respect (or disrespect, as the case may be- ha!). The vast majority of institutional trades are dictated by Boomers, and it's impossible to understand Boomers without understanding the environment during which they came of age.
Was watching a stock call-in show on BNN (Canada's CNBC) and surprising how many people calling in worried about the correction we've seen in the last couple of weeks. A lot of calls went like "my stock has pulled back horribly in the last 2 weeks (8% down - no mention of the up 100% in the last year). What's going on? Should I sell or buy more?"
Sure seems like people are anxious out there. A much better sign than if they were being all cocky. I think it means we could see some fast selling if the downturn gathers momentum as these people seemed ready to dump quickly, but probably it turns quickly when it does and gets back on track.
By the way, had dinner with my hard-core gold bug friend last night and he still has the faith. His recommended asset allocation is 50% gold, 20% cash, 20% stocks and 9% into alternative currencies with the Iran rial and, 1% into bitcoin if you are aggressive.
He thinks the US $ is toast and the economy is going to crash and is thinking of buying a house off the grid in the BC mountains, far from everyone, so he and his gold bars will safe.
EWZ. RSX. EPI. FXI.
ReplyDeleteECON.
ReplyDeleteEEB, BKF, BIK.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/uruguay-becomes-first-nation-to-legalize-marijuana-2013-12-10
ReplyDeleteThe first national blow to the drug cartels.
Now that expectations for a market drop have all but disappeared, let me put forth the idea that the US indexes begin a serious correction tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNot good enuff, I need a fundamental reason.
DeleteLet's remember the words of the great Jesse Livermore- 'fundamentals, schmundamentals.'
DeleteMaybe it was Sylvester Stallone. Or Mickey Rourke. Whatever.
DeleteYou'll find the miner fundies holding down the fort at The Alamo.
DeleteMan, that film traumatized a generation of young movie-goers who believed in happy endings.
DeleteBSBR - Back to $6, maybe you're right.
DeleteGoog glass on it's way.
ReplyDeleteThose wouldn't be rose colored, would they?
DeleteAre you really gonna wear that thing? Reminds me of the Optigrab.
DeleteYou had to apply to get it right?
Baltic dry index up another 2.8% to 2,299. At this current rate over an entire quarter BALT would earn $0.08 EPS without the upcoming expansion of its fleet and taking into account the share dilution associated the recent expansion. Including the benefits of the expanded fleet in terms of revenues, they would earn $0.18 EPS at the current rate over an entire quarter. Revenues would be triple what they were in Q3.
ReplyDeleteThe average BDI is now up to 1,792 for Q4 vs 1,293 for Q3.
The consensus is still that this is a seasonal thing and will revert back in Q1.
Your damn right you have to apply for these babies. You think they'll let just any chump wear these???
ReplyDeleteThe chumps will line up around the block, you know they will.
DeleteHilton IPO by Blackstone to be priced today, does an IPO simply mean they're cashing out?
Hard to believe we are already through S2 today. That's how tight a trading range we've been in.
ReplyDeleteGet out while the gettin's good, I guess.
DeleteStill want to buy a basket of china small caps? FU.
ReplyDeleteYep, the big high hard FU!
DeleteSOSDD, where are my glasses? :)
ReplyDeleteNew chemistry for GM......
ReplyDeleteScaling back into ZGNX @ 2.96...
ReplyDeletewow. nice work on that one. I'm impressed.
DeleteAA - That's some pretty awesome price action, takes guts to buy into moves like that.
ReplyDeleteRun of the mill 10:15am shake you out stop-sweeping lows?
ReplyDeleteTLT giving up most of Tuesday's run-up.
ReplyDeleteEEM giving it back and then some, down -1.33% (which translates into -2.7% for RYWVX). 2013 has been the year of dodging bullets. Hit-and-run has not been a bad strategy.
Spending cuts - The fundamental reason.
ReplyDeleteLong SPY on margin for a day trade at $179.7
ReplyDeleteRH earnings tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteOkay, thanks for the heads-up!
DeleteBALT - Seems strong, considering the current.
ReplyDeleteIts actually weak when you compare it to DRYS, EGLE, and NM. But I get your point. I think it's a bit of guilt by association with GNK??? Not really sure. I suspect if GNK gets a big dilution event there might be a chance of adding more at a discount. We'll see.
DeleteYes, good point, something like that might happen or they could merge the two?
DeleteBSBR - Looks like a potential entry here, I don't have the stomach.
ReplyDeletePEIX - Nope, not going to $25 this week.
ReplyDeleteThis guy has been spot on with his calls for a while...so I'll take his warning signal to heart...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.optionmillionaires.com/reaching-tipping-point/
Sold SPY at $179.9.
DeleteMy thinking with the overall market is still that the public hasn't fully embraced stocks. I see the Univ of Mich sentiment report and it makes me think we have much more to go on the upside over the longer term. The short term is probably dicey and I think we still get a 4 to 5% pullback at some point fairly soon.
The other thing I like to look at is the VIX and that still tells me there is skepticism. I think we see single digit VIX readings before its all over.
Seems that supports the theory of a negative tapering response.
DeleteTRLA looks quite bearish.
ReplyDeleteShorted SPY at $179.93. My target if this is the pullback would be $178.3 down to around $176.
ReplyDeleteENPH RSI_EMA reading on the daily chart is now 10. That's very low.
ReplyDeleteRobot flipped short at 1803
ReplyDeleteI hope we get a 1%+ pullback today and tomorrow...we need it.
DeleteIf we do I think buying puts on the VIX would be a helluva options trade.
DeleteEveryone thinks the FED is going to taper, what if they decide not to?
ReplyDeleteNQ - Down slightly today, too.
ReplyDeleteWild...goes completely counter what the rational response would be to a big up year:
ReplyDeletehttp://ryandetrick.tumblr.com/post/69093307393/why-the-spx-will-no-doubt-be-higher-12-months-from
Also, just saw that the RUT is down almost 4% from highs. Perhaps the 5% correction comes in this index since its the leader and typically you get a 5% correction from what I've found after a big year+ rally, which is used to reset the market so that it can rally even further.
Covered my SPY short at $179.48. Probably too early but still made like $400. Steaks?
ReplyDeletePay your utility bill!
DeleteCanada got rid our pennies last year, and this year, we're getting rid of door-to-door home mail delivery - we're such a practical country!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/canada-post-to-phase-out-urban-home-mail-delivery-1.2459618
Do you see have that wacko in office though?
DeleteWe don't need no stinkin' coins!
DeleteNRF - There ya' go!
ReplyDelete2nd nailed it, I don't get the sh*tty mood.
ReplyDeleteUgaz up another 6% or just a cool 65% from when I bought. Oh yeah, its also up 60% from when i sold!
ReplyDeleteThat's hot!
DeletePKX - I'm gonna have to pick this one us if it dips to $65 again, I kinda thought it might make $100 on this run.
ReplyDeleteAnd yeah, I regret not buying todays' weakness in BALT, for a flip. But who knew for sure which way it'd go?
ReplyDeleteIDX - Could be a good entry here if the negativity would just subside?
ReplyDeleteBSBR as well, for that matter, FBP has already had several days of punishment so maybe FBP was a leading indicator?
DeleteUS Dollar going to head up soon or where will the capital go, maybe commodities, considering global economies are strengthening? Hey, maybe all the capital will flow into BALT! :)
Pretty average/typical December so far. If the average holds, market should bottom this week and then start non-stop ascent the rest of the month.
ReplyDeletehttp://ryandetrick.tumblr.com/post/68884553471/what-to-expect-in-december-the-top-chart-above-is
Good to hear some negative chatter in the markets as well.
NWLI - I dunno man, triple tops are rare, right?
ReplyDeleteRemember to keep an eye on those sectors / stocks that are performing well on a day like today. I hope we get one more big down day tomorrow. That will add some fear into the market. There is already a nice 8% spike in the VIX today. Up 23% from the lows 2 weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteOnly POS stocks are up on my board:
ReplyDeleteBALT
ARTX
DRYS
NM
YRCW
TZOO
BAS
DeleteLong SPY at $178.56 for a quick trade
ReplyDeleteSold at $178.7
DeleteGASS pick up some at 10.33
ReplyDeleteBALT acten well
VLCCF too oil shipper not dry
DeleteOh yeahhhhhhhh! :)
ReplyDelete"If you're looking to play a rebound in small cap oil stocks, you may want to take a closer look at Vantage Drilling (NYSE: VTG), Halcon Resources (NYSE: HK), TransAtlantic Petroleum (NYSE: TAT), and Hercules Offshore (NASDAQ: HERO)."
ReplyDeleteRBY- Damn, man. cheapy needs to sell out immediately. It's one thing to lose -80%. It's another to lose -100%.
ReplyDeletewhy we have stops!
DeleteLots of volume on that one.
DeleteSimilar to the cash-flow positive miner I bought into as it was pumped by the sista, which mysteriously and promptly lost 15% the very next day, an unpleasant hit to my account from which I have yet to recover. Thanks, sista!
I really don't think that this is the top of the market. People have a lot of profits to protect and are using the budget / taper news as an excuse. Maybe this is part of a 5% or even 10% pullback, but no way I think this can be the end of the bull market. It just doesn't make sense as the economy will grow next year, inflation is weak (low rates), and there is a lot of slack in the economy.
ReplyDeleteWe need to get some real excesses in the economy (or at least the market) before we are ready for a bear market.
Take a look at for reasons why the economy will be good in 2014:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/12/update-looking-for-stronger-economic.html
I haven't said anything about this being a market top. I still think we end 2014 higher (significantly higher) than where we are now. I just think we're overdue for a correction.
DeleteOh JOY!
ReplyDeleteOpened a small (1000 share) position in IMUC @ 1.24. I have no insight into the results of the clinical trial, nor any info beyond the fact that price dropped -50% to a 2-year low.
ReplyDelete'BALT acten well.'
ReplyDeleteBALT? No ----. 'Actin' funny, but I don't know why. 'S'cuse me, while I kiss the sky!'
I think money is flowing into that sector, remember UPS/FDX a year or two ago?
DeleteDBC - Oh my, wonder why this one didn't follow the market lower?
ReplyDeleteJJC - Copper has risen this month, hasn't it, and SCCO remains above $25 as well.
So, commodities may have bottomed, eh?
On a day like this, Hussman Strategic Growth is...down -0.01! Say it ain't so, John.
ReplyDeleteMust be the miners in the fund.
Pal was down twice that at -0.02, a 3.8% drop. RBY lost just $0.05, they need a(nother?) reverse split!
Delete'You have a call.'
Delete'I'm not here.'
'But John, it's the back line, the 'Bat' phone. It's been ringing off the hook.'
'I know!'
'What should I tell them?'
'Look, I don't have an answer right now!'
'John?'
'----!'
'
Nobody's Piled higher and deeper than an Phd.
DeleteHadn't heard that one before!
Delete1700 - Resistance at 1700 lasted for at least 2-1/2 months and we even dropped back through 1600 during the process, any reason to believe 1800 might pose any less of a challenge?
ReplyDeleteI agree with BB. We bottom within 2 weeks, then rally the last week of December (after everyone's given up on Santa).
ReplyDeleteRYWVX -4.78%.
ReplyDeleteRYGBX -1.05%.
DeleteRYPMX -3.36%.
ReplyDeleteGold: Eyes on $1650
By Jack Senett | Harp's Roadmap | 5 Comments
Gold is firming up from the painful, debilitating double bottoms and is setting up a move to switch its gear from sliding to climbing.
Over the next 9 months, gold will climb to the price target of $1650; such a move will give gold stock investors a plethora of happiness in the form of a likely double return.
Best Regards,
Harp
Add your comment →
5 Comments
Based on... [#122154]
By: Dave M (437 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
December 9, 2013 at 3:29 pm
Based on what?
Hear hear... [#122155]
By: c3wands (71 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
December 9, 2013 at 3:33 pm
Hear hear. Hopium?
I think they're starting to catch on.
DeleteYeah I agree, did Jack pen that from a warm beachfront somewhere?
Deletehaha. year end selloff in gold coming me thinks.
DeleteActually, Jack was just reposting a comment from 'Harp.' He was introduced to the community last year, and due to his very limited input, I'm still not sure what to make of him.
Delete$MITK Quick, GTFO! Debello is selling again!! These are the options he was granted after selling ALL of his shares before!!
ReplyDeleteWait I thought old Jimmy said "Today, Mitek has a more diversified product and patent portfolio with momentum going into 2014." That guy gives me the heebie jeebies when he reads his written statements during earnings calls. I feel like I'm at a used car dealership.
DeleteOr.." In fact, according to a blah, blah, blah study..."
DeleteI actually checked out the Yahoo message board and nothing on it. When referring to channel partners they still say "our partner" Yikes.
Dec 15th is the date tagged for best year end returns
ReplyDeleteThis was from that Detrick guy we like.
DeleteTomorrow we get another 1% selloff and a VIX spike up to 17 then there's a decent chance we have a good rally point.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I still can't figure out if more people expect a Fed induced selloff or if they think it doesn't matter. That's the ultimate arbiter of the near term direction of the market most likely. Not that it really matters but it does to a lot of us schmucks that like to waste time speculating on the overall direction of the market.
DeleteBTW, way to hang tough in BALT when the market looks so extended.
DeleteI heard now that Congress has begun to get along, it gives the FED room to taper.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhI6EImeY_s
ReplyDeleteThis is one of the few financial blogs (if not the only) where music and trading are treated with equal respect (or disrespect, as the case may be- ha!). The vast majority of institutional trades are dictated by Boomers, and it's impossible to understand Boomers without understanding the environment during which they came of age.
DeleteRe miners, Dennis Gartman was on CNBC this week and he liked the metals and supporting infrastucture companies for 2014:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/101259219
Was watching a stock call-in show on BNN (Canada's CNBC) and surprising how many people calling in worried about the correction we've seen in the last couple of weeks. A lot of calls went like "my stock has pulled back horribly in the last 2 weeks (8% down - no mention of the up 100% in the last year). What's going on? Should I sell or buy more?"
ReplyDeleteSure seems like people are anxious out there. A much better sign than if they were being all cocky. I think it means we could see some fast selling if the downturn gathers momentum as these people seemed ready to dump quickly, but probably it turns quickly when it does and gets back on track.
By the way, had dinner with my hard-core gold bug friend last night and he still has the faith. His recommended asset allocation is 50% gold, 20% cash, 20% stocks and 9% into alternative currencies with the Iran rial and, 1% into bitcoin if you are aggressive.
ReplyDeleteHe thinks the US $ is toast and the economy is going to crash and is thinking of buying a house off the grid in the BC mountains, far from everyone, so he and his gold bars will safe.