Speaking of the Boomer generation, did we not have 'Nam in our face(s) every night.
There's a good chance miners fight for their lives today. Personally, I think gold bulls will win. If they fail, the 2013 mining disaster will finish with a bang.
Gold getting whacked this AM. stopped out of half position... [#122167] By: johnuk (553 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑ December 12, 2013 at 7:04 am Gold getting whacked this AM. stopped out of half position in Randgold, on the brink of being stopped out of the other half.
By the way, had dinner with my hard-core gold bug friend last night and he still has the faith. His recommended asset allocation is 50% gold, 20% cash, 20% stocks and 9% into alternative currencies with the Iran rial and, 1% into bitcoin if you are aggressive.
He thinks the US $ is toast and the economy is going to crash and is thinking of buying a house off the grid in the BC mountains, far from everyone, so he and his gold bars will safe.
brent - my brother is getting more and more into the libertarian movement and we talked about the market the other day. he said he's thinking about just taking his money out and paying down his house because the market has gotten way too frothy. He's been into gold and is skeptical about the government. I tried to convince him that the smarter move longer term (he's only a year older than me) is to keep making his payments and keep his money in the market. I told him that the index pays about 2% in dividends annually and that all he needs is about 2% from stocks over the longer term to earn more than the interest he's paying on his debt. I hope he took my advice to heart because when you look at it in those terms it's still the best option out there.
I also think Gold is not close to being done going down.
BDI up another 2% today to 2,337. We'll see if this is just a temporary spike. My suspicion is its not and it will stay above 2,000 for all of Q1.
BALT is on pace to break even on the quarter based on the average BDI rate of 1,802, up almost 40% vs Q3 avg. I believe the company bases its dividend on Earnings before Depreciation, which would amount to $0.10 EPS this quarter so far. This makes sense because depreciation, while certainly a real thing, doesn't apply as much to them because they paid for the bulk of these ships with equity, not debt. So earnings are already reduced by the increased shares.
I think they have plenty of room to boost their dividend from $0.02 this quarter. Possibly to $0.06 or so.
What if just around the corner an emerging market boom is about to unfold, does it seem likely or has it already happened and I'm a decade or more behind with my knowledge of current events?
I don't know about a boom but if India can get reforms passed that actually promote a cohesive plan for growth then it could be a huge boost to the market as they have the capacity to grow into another China.
REFR taking it on the chin. I don't know enough about the technology but this looks like a potential knockout type move...entry around low $5's could be enticing.
Mark - If you're right then it's a friggin steal and a half at 50% below recent highs. I'm trading a bounce but I got interested in this because of the solar tie in and the impressive top line revenue growth. Sales have almost quadrupled in 2 years while operating income is up 10 fold. You don't get that kind of growth very often. I don't know shit about the business so I'm keeping the position small.
Here is how Art Cashin commented on yesterday's action.
"Equity markets are soft on three continents. Selloff accelerated when S&P broke 1800. Traders think that may have triggered some algorithmic selling. Yield on the ten year still behaving. Still grappling with odd lot volume so today's guess is 640 to 720 million. (The final NYSE volume was about 660 million shares.) Stocks tried to bounce as the afternoon began. The initial rally attempt hit a wall shortly after 1:00. The wall was a ten year Treasury auction that needed a flea collar. Demand was well below estimates and most of the deal wound up "South of Canal Street" (in the hands of Wall Street dealers). The yield on the ten year rose above 2.84 and bids on the equity floor began to disappear. Luckily, no heavy selling arose and the post-auction stock dip stopped short of the level of the earlier lows. That brought the buyers back in. That rally hit another wall at 2:00. This wall related to market on close imbalances. Around two o'clock, you get a peek at some of the early postings of probable market on close orders. The data is imperfect – some of the orders may be canceled or even offset but later contra-side orders. Nonetheless, traders were stunned to see that at the close there might be $2 billion for sale on balance. Buyers began to pull back – cautiously at first. There was even buzz that a buyer (or buyers) were waiting in the weeds – ready to offset the big sellers at the last minute. At 3:00, there were no signs of any offsets and folks began to sell to prepare for the coming supply. Steadily, almost relentlessly, prices moved lower with the Dow going from 15,900 down to 15,830. They closed less than 20 points off the lows. The damage was uneven. If we convert to Dow equivalent points, the scorecard looks like this: Dow -129.92; S&P -175; Nasdaq -225 and the Russell 2000 -260. It was not just bond yields and taper fears."
I think it would be good to see a bit of indiscriminate selling and a bit of panickyness in the market with this sell off. Get some of the sentiment indicators down and set up some better buys for the next step up.
Milker Bills - Congressional tool used to threaten corporations into making political contributions. So corporations actually like participating (voluntarily and/or forced) in the political process?
NWLI - Here we are, back to the trend line with a $220 double top. Boehner - Maybe this guy isn't so bad after all, I don't see him getting teary-eyed so much anymore either......
Mazda leads fuel mileage race with 27MPG... Heck, where's the progress, my old Buick V6 gets that!
You're funny! You qualify as an extreme "hyper-miler" for throwing it in neutral, removing the inner door panels, rear seat and over-inflating the tires.
"It is open for debate as to how the stock market will respond, but it is not too difficult to predict where bond yields will be heading (up) since they are, after all, cyclical by nature. Within equities, this means caution on the rate-sensitives and the macro backdrop will augur for growth over value."
I mean this guy was consistently bearish for a while but I think he's right. I do think the markets are completely independent of the economy in the short term, though. Having said that, I can envision a scenario where Europe, the US, and Japan are growing at 3% and we haven't had that for years. I do think the longer term looks fine. That's kind of why I'm just sticking with my longs in BALT / AA because over the longer term they will be fine. The shorter term who the hell knows.
US growth estimates were recently reduced, maybe it was the WTO, can't recall, estimate was less than 3%. Underpromise overdeliver or someone jerking markets around to justify their existence?
(a) EEM continues to slide, although now (-0.5%) well off this morning’s lows. (b) Bonds also continue to slide, and currently nears day’s low (-0.4%) (c) GDX -1%, an improvement over an earlier -3% selloff which saw many mining stocks set new 52-wk lows. Spot gold now -31/oz to 1226. (d) The DJIA is off -85 points, but surprisingly the NDQ is green.
Was just looking back at my notes from a week or so ago and I can't remember the reason why, but I mapped out a 1812 > 1770 > marginal new highs > 1740 before bottoming for a meaningful rally. I probably should have traded this with options for the hell of it cuz it's almost exactly what's happening. Looks like 1740 would coincide with just above those Sept highs and right around the early Nov lows...and more importantly it would give the feel of having lost prior support from the 1770s level...
I sold 20% of my position in ENPH at $4.9 and $4.88 heading into the close because what was a tiny position turned into a decent sized position and I didn't want carry that into tomorrow.
Guys, hate to say it but Ole Martin Armstrong has been sooo... [#122170] By: jimddavis (95 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑ December 12, 2013 at 9:36 am
Guys, hate to say it but Ole Martin Armstrong has been sooo right on this downtrend in Gold and Silver for the past several years. I listened to him and He saved me $$$$$. He is still negative, but talks like a bounce may be coming after the first of the year. Good luck all
To add another read, I have much easier time seeing gold... [#122172] By: Vadym Graifer (4268 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑ December 12, 2013 at 1:39 pm
To add another read, I have much easier time seeing gold testing and most likely losing $1000 than reversing its downtrend here. Barring WW3 breaking out, this chart is indicating nothing even remotely resembling reversal to me. Breakdown and trend continuation is the only trade I would be placing.
The times they are a-changin'! It wasn't that long ago I was banned for simply suggesting that gold bugs make like the Silver Surfer rather than hold through every downdraft while insisting 5000/oz was around the corner.
CP - I went to Bill's 1st 2009 Bahamas conference. Before I left, a friend at work told me to go to the Bahamas & enjoy the conference and the sun but don't leave any money down there. Now I wasn't going to sign up for anything anyway, BUT it was good advice. There was this ~28yr old guy there from Oregon that I met over one of the lunches. He worked for NOAA ... a weather dude ... said he worked the night shift so as to trade the market during the day. Said he was managing his family's money after his dad passed and his mom needed help and that he had recently opened an account w/ Bill's whatever. I Hope he didn't ride it down to far. Nice Guy. ....
Gold is breaking down from the painful, debilitating double bottoms and is setting up to switch gears from sliding to plunging.
Over the next 9 months, gold will drop to the price target of $900; such a move will give gold stock investors a plethora of pain in the form of a likely wipeout.]
Mine took the same amount of time and half the amount of alcohol.
AH's and got hit after good earnings. Co-CEO quit but will stay on Board. I almost did AH's but will see how it trades in the morning. AH low was about 56.10 ish.
Seems they've decided not to include press releases in the portfolio view of stocks with the new version, so I've been missing out on a ton of news on stocks lately. What a huge pain!
Anyone have a better site to use? I've tried Google Finance previously and it was worse.
I don't understand why companies like Yahoo do this. Now, I have to go into every stock individually to check for news to make sure I don't miss something.
We note that Mr. Eric Sprott has been ousted from his position as the lead manager of the Sprott Fund following his long standing and very vocal bullish endorsement of gold in US dollar terms. His fund, which once was $3 billion, has fallen to only $300 million as redemptions have simply cascaded. Mr. Sprott is and always has been a gentleman and a very, very wise investor, but he like so many others fell in love with gold in dollar terms and that “affair” has obviously gone awry. The “divorce” decree was signed yesterday, apparently.
I think the last time he had this chart, stocks were undervalued on 14 of 15 metrics, but now, 12 of 15 metrics, so even though a pullback is very possible, stocks are generally still cheap.
I get it that investment advisors are bullish. I think a 4 or 5% correction would mitigate that. If we rally from here I still think we could get one in the short term to wash the excesses of their optimism away. However, when people suggest excessive bullishness I think they're referring to the nearer term...as in most people see us hitting say 1900. But I wonder if people are bullish enough.
Let's say we get expansion from the government sector + Europe growth of 2-3% + Japanese growth of 2-3% + China re accelerating + India growing into a powerhouse + Brazil growing steadily again all at the same time. Perhaps it would mean inflation...who knows. But it could also mean 2,500 on the S&P
I happened to reread a quote by Templeton last night. We may think we have the fortitude to buy at the point of maximum pessimism but when the time comes we often find out otherwise.
The only 'work around' is to have a limit order (mental or physical) in place. For me, the mental limit order on EEM earlier this week was right around here. I noticed yesterday I didn't have the balls during the morning selloff. Here we are again. So I'm hitting the bid.
2nd - I've found the best way for me personally to overcome this fear is to buy gradually. I also typically like to buy shit that is beaten to a pulp where there are even fears of bankruptcy in some cases so its essentially to take up this strategy for survival.
I picked up a few shares of EGLE at $3.14. I mentioned that I wanted some exposure to GNK/EGLE because if the BDI keeps rising then those with the worst balance sheet could have the biggest returns. Well, if you look at the chart of EGLE it still held the most recent lows even after the rumors of a debt restructuring brought it down last week. That's a positive I think. Not sure if it will hold and how long I'll hold for.
"We are pleased to bring our clients the latest installment of the Year Ahead for the Materials & Industrials team. Our top picks for the new year are AVY, CSX, EMN, ETN, FLR, F, FCX, GD, LOPE, NUE, RHI, SLW, LUV, TOL, and URI. Industrials sets up better than Materials heading into 2014. Pension and non-res construction should also provide tailwinds." BACML
I was looking at that chart a few days ago and the thought came to me that we were making a mistake not having $$ in it. Its probably dumb but I always refer to that FWLT chart from like 9 years ago whenever I look at YRCW. They also went through a near death experience / reverse split, massive convertibles etc.
Even after it's run, NM still at less than 80% of book value, so good valuation support for the stock. Plus a safe balance sheet and buying undervalued assets through this downturn so well positioned for a market rebound. Seem to be doing a lot of things right.
Yeah, funny how they can say we are at the start of a 2-year rally when stocks like NM have almost tripled this year!
But, the way I look at it is the first part of the rally, which we've had, is the bounce from being very undervalued, getting back to a more normal valuation. The next leg, which could last a few years, is the growth of the industry where the market grows, stocks earnings grow, and they get higher valuations. After that, we may or may not have a momentum, overvaluation stage.
I think MS missed the first part of the rally (that Wilbur Ross and the distressed investor types caught) and is now seeing the second part of the rally.
For some of these shippers I think they're still stuck in the first leg. The thing that had me interested initially is this is an essential industry that while it definitely has cyclicality to it, it is also a direct beneficiary of global growth. There are going to be periods of overgrowth of supply just like in 2008 which will kill the industry. But I think that was a once in a 10 to 20 year bubble, if not longer, and I think after coming out of this downturn all companies in the industry will be a lot more risk averse, which should set the stage for a very long bull market. The demand for the products they ship doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon.
I kind of look at it as a smaller version of the ground transportation industry, which goes through big cycles where you could either buy and hold and still make some money or you can buy near the troughs and sell during euphoria and make a lot more money.
(a) EEM currently bidding 41.04 (+0.4%). EPI flat (compared to this morning’s purchase price). (b) TLT (long bond) +0.44%. (c) GDX (miners) +0.9%.
My thinking is that divergence between emerging markets and US indexes will revert to mean over the next 12 months. I’m also expecting a year-end rally (most likely beginning in earnest around December 23, but could occur anytime). This week’s ‘taper tantrum’ may be over soon (selling the rumor + buying the news, if you will). Whether US averages spike hard or tread water, there is the potential for emerging markets to break out to new highs
From Caldaro's EOD write-up: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
The market opened higher today, then, simply put, traded within the OEW 1779 pivot range for the rest of the day. Today’s low, SPX 1772 could have ended the first part of a larger ABC structure from the SPX 1814 high. Thus far we can count an A: 1786-1800-1779, a B: 1796-1783-1812, and a potentially completed C: 1772-1783-1772. If so, we should see a decent rally next: possibly into the 1790′s. If not, once 1772 is broken the decline will continue on the downside.
About a month ago I spoke with the CEO of GNK to try to get a handle on the impact a bankruptcy filing would have on BALT since GNK owns a 20% of so economic (and 70% or so voting) interest in BALT. The CEO said "what makes you so sure GNK is going bankrupt?" in a way that suggested to me he already knew they were going to be working out a deal with their creditors. I knew the answer fairly well already as to the impact on BALT (ie none really just that control would shift to the creditors of GNK in such a scenario) but I wanted to hear it from the horses mouth. I remember thinking at the time that I wonder if they are going to pull off a restructuring of their debt. That's when I started looking into prior financial results of GNK and realized that if rates turn they could be highly profitable with an additional kicker from BALT they never had before. Now we also know that Centerbridge bought $600 million of GNKs debt at a 10% discount to par and they also own about 17% or so of equity in BALT. So in the scenario that GNK wasn't able to negotiate favorable terms with the other debt holders and goes bankrupt Centerbridge would own 30% or so of BALT as downside protection. The upside is they own about that much of BALT and a good chunk of GNK as well and if the other debt holders
(Cont) do agree to extend their debt then Centerbridge gets a nice one two shot from their equity position in BALT and debt position in GNK.
Anyway I bought back into GNK yesterday. Small position at 1.9x to go along with EGLE at 3.1x. Total is about 7% figuring it could be a 10 Bagger or bust. I also so some more AA to do this
Just wondering....... So perhaps if the debt refinancing with GNK goes well enough, Centerbridge might be enticed to roll their BALT position into GNK, maybe? That might mean selling their BALT position or GNK buying out BALT, or BALT buying out GNK?
I have a little fear the dealings between BALT and GNK might be a mechanism to unload deadwood into one or the other.
CP - I like this guy Caldaro ... mainly because it has been the 1st EW discussion I've been able to understand... :-) BUT there are other wave counts out there and many of them have structures that are also very plausible. I've been working through Ian Copsey's book 'Harmonic Elliott Wave' analysis. He has a $DJIA chart on p. 185 (I can post it if ur interested) that would imply that Super-Cycle 1 [SC1] was the 1929 high, SC2 was the 1932 low, SC3 was the long run up to the 2007 high, SC4 was the 666 low, and we're now on the FED-induced final SC5 push up to wherever??? before the BIG DOWN-ward correction after all this Central-Bank crap implodes.
Perhaps we can discuss further if you're interested
I'm in disagreement that Central-Bank crap might implode at this point though, I'm more inclined to believe the global economy is transitioning into a growth spurt mode. This is based on the theory we eventually seem to outgrow(operative term) these economic recessions and I think that phase has begun but this time it's a global synchronization with emerging markets inclusive of Mongolian Yak farmers tired of living in tents and ready to make their grand entry into the modern world, willing to allow colonialism to plunder their natural resources in exchange for such modern conveniences as comfy heated toilet seats, hot and cold running water, corn-fed pork and pork by-products, farm-raised fish from Viet Nam with unhealthy levels of heavy metals and otherwise fatty diets known to cause diabetes, etc.
CP -- you know this Twitter stuff is amazing. Just this wekk, I've been looking at this guy's analysis from Bulgaria ... https://twitter.com/elroytrader Some very interesting charts. There was a chart in his stream that caught my eye wrt different wave-count. Here's the link see if it works.... http://rt7.t.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/display_chartimage.phtml?name=tjb9bowk4howa69e1n40qy2uy&type=png&purpose=share_twitter
CP -- if you believe in the "global economy is transitioning into a growth spurt mode" view, then that would be consistent w/ Caldaro's labeling that SC2 ended w/ the 666 low and we're now on Cycle [1] of the BIG SC3 UP-Leg that will last beyond all of us.
"Cycle [1] of the BIG SC3 UP-Leg that will last beyond all of us. "
Now you're talkin', thanks for calling my attention to this, that's the scenario I'm envisioning. On that note, I'll be taking a closer at Caldero's work and these other links as well.
CP -- OK man ... Look this whole Super-Cycle wave deal is like WhoTF Knows and it has more to do with whether you think capitalism works and whether we will blow ourselves up type of thing IMHO. I'm more interested in the Intermediate/Fine-Structure wave counts and the feeling that 'I'm just not riding the wave structure correctly' in my trading.
Caldaro's charts end with his Short-Term 60min view. I usually go from there to the very fine-structure charts at http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/ It's an ongoing effort to anticipate WTF might unfold.
CP -- Glad we're discussing this. Who knows with these fractal structures whether the initial wave ended in 1929, etc BUT, BUT There is a wave-structure here. An interesting dance between stochastics and chaos.
Yeah, we might be about to witness some downside in the near future leading to yet another buying opportunity for long term investment, that's possible. What's your time horizon, how about the next decade or beyond, how's that looking?
Putting the charts aside for a moment, what are your observations and research telling you, are the big swinging dicks(corporate types possessing valuable insight) withdrawing from investment, dumping their positions into strength, or are they positioning themselves strategically for growth, where are their capital resources flowing, what are their strategic plans?
CP -- my views tend to be more 'Grym'-like (from the BC blog) to tell you the truth. All of the organizations that I have (or had) direct knowledge of are screwed-up, hosed-up and jacked-up!!!! But you can read about it yourself: over the summer, the washington post released some excerpts from one of the 'Snowden' documents: http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/inside-the-2013-us-intelligence-black-budget/420/
Flip on down to p.4 -- Reductions / Workforce ... "... continue to reduce our reliance on core contractors." pretty much captures it. I was able to weave-and-dodge until Dec '09 ... man what a zoo!!!!
Gold getting whacked this AM. stopped out of half position... [#122167]
ReplyDeleteBy: johnuk (553 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
December 12, 2013 at 7:04 am
Gold getting whacked this AM. stopped out of half position in Randgold, on the brink of being stopped out of the other half.
http://www.goldprice.org/live-gold-price.html
Yup stopped out of the other half.
hopefully it was a tight stop and not a capitulation stop.
DeleteBy the way, had dinner with my hard-core gold bug friend last night and he still has the faith. His recommended asset allocation is 50% gold, 20% cash, 20% stocks and 9% into alternative currencies with the Iran rial and, 1% into bitcoin if you are aggressive.
ReplyDeleteHe thinks the US $ is toast and the economy is going to crash and is thinking of buying a house off the grid in the BC mountains, far from everyone, so he and his gold bars will safe.
brent - my brother is getting more and more into the libertarian movement and we talked about the market the other day. he said he's thinking about just taking his money out and paying down his house because the market has gotten way too frothy. He's been into gold and is skeptical about the government. I tried to convince him that the smarter move longer term (he's only a year older than me) is to keep making his payments and keep his money in the market. I told him that the index pays about 2% in dividends annually and that all he needs is about 2% from stocks over the longer term to earn more than the interest he's paying on his debt. I hope he took my advice to heart because when you look at it in those terms it's still the best option out there.
DeleteI also think Gold is not close to being done going down.
BDI up another 2% today to 2,337. We'll see if this is just a temporary spike. My suspicion is its not and it will stay above 2,000 for all of Q1.
ReplyDeleteBALT is on pace to break even on the quarter based on the average BDI rate of 1,802, up almost 40% vs Q3 avg. I believe the company bases its dividend on Earnings before Depreciation, which would amount to $0.10 EPS this quarter so far. This makes sense because depreciation, while certainly a real thing, doesn't apply as much to them because they paid for the bulk of these ships with equity, not debt. So earnings are already reduced by the increased shares.
I think they have plenty of room to boost their dividend from $0.02 this quarter. Possibly to $0.06 or so.
I guess now we've gotta make it through $5.60....... Don't want to see a triple top on this one!!!!!!!!!
DeleteWhat if just around the corner an emerging market boom is about to unfold, does it seem likely or has it already happened and I'm a decade or more behind with my knowledge of current events?
ReplyDeleteI don't know about a boom but if India can get reforms passed that actually promote a cohesive plan for growth then it could be a huge boost to the market as they have the capacity to grow into another China.
DeleteAdded to ZGNX @ 2.83...
ReplyDeleteIMUC> Getting punished for opening a position last night @ 1.24. It even broke a buck to trade @ 0.98...
ReplyDeleteI sure am glad I immediately dumped the EXTR for BALT instead!
DeleteGoldcorp hits a new 52-wk low today.
ReplyDeleteOut of IMU @ 1.07...
ReplyDeleteGDX new 52-wk low...
ReplyDeleteThat was IMUC.
ReplyDeleteREFR taking it on the chin. I don't know enough about the technology but this looks like a potential knockout type move...entry around low $5's could be enticing.
ReplyDeleteENPH is also getting absolutely smoked.
Ok I started a small position in ENPH only because it's about as oversold as I've seen a stock. $5.01. I will look to double down lower if possible.
DeleteAdded a little more at $4.94
Deleteadded more at $4.99
DeleteThe problem with IMUC was taking a position in a company I know absolutely nothing about. Thus no conviction.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - I guess this puppy needs to hold $5.80, else still coming to us... FBP has been getting whacked well also,
ReplyDeleteBAP seems stronger, in comparison.
Fidelity now has a Bitcoin investment fund?
ReplyDeletenear term upside target on ENPH could be as high as $6.5 if it can just get a rally going.
ReplyDeleteJeez short interest in ENPH is over 30% of the float. Third Point owns 18% of the company. A heavyweight battleground?
DeleteI may be biased, but I STILL sense no panic in miners.
ReplyDeleteI was going to guess REFR was in the hemp business, but I guess not.
ReplyDeleteOut of ZGNX @ 2.91...
ReplyDeleteI don't like today's action at all. There seems to be a 'risk off' attitude that may end up taking everything down with it.
ReplyDeleteYep, my perception is there's selling into strength.
DeleteTOF- I was told ENPH will have earnings this Q.
ReplyDeleteMark - If you're right then it's a friggin steal and a half at 50% below recent highs. I'm trading a bounce but I got interested in this because of the solar tie in and the impressive top line revenue growth. Sales have almost quadrupled in 2 years while operating income is up 10 fold. You don't get that kind of growth very often. I don't know shit about the business so I'm keeping the position small.
DeleteRH - Getting some volume.
ReplyDeleteHere is how Art Cashin commented on yesterday's action.
ReplyDelete"Equity markets are soft on three continents. Selloff accelerated when S&P broke 1800. Traders think that may have triggered some algorithmic selling.
Yield on the ten year still behaving.
Still grappling with odd lot volume so today's guess is 640 to 720 million.
(The final NYSE volume was about 660 million shares.)
Stocks tried to bounce as the afternoon began.
The initial rally attempt hit a wall shortly after 1:00. The wall was a ten year Treasury auction that needed a flea collar.
Demand was well below estimates and most of the deal wound up "South of Canal Street" (in the hands of Wall Street dealers).
The yield on the ten year rose above 2.84 and bids on the equity floor began to disappear.
Luckily, no heavy selling arose and the post-auction stock dip stopped short of the level of the earlier lows. That brought the buyers back in.
That rally hit another wall at 2:00. This wall related to market on close imbalances.
Around two o'clock, you get a peek at some of the early postings of probable market on close orders. The data is imperfect – some of the orders may be canceled or even offset but later contra-side orders.
Nonetheless, traders were stunned to see that at the close there might be $2 billion for sale on balance.
Buyers began to pull back – cautiously at first. There was even buzz that a buyer (or buyers) were waiting in the weeds – ready to offset the big sellers at the last minute.
At 3:00, there were no signs of any offsets and folks began to sell to prepare for the coming supply.
Steadily, almost relentlessly, prices moved lower with the Dow going from 15,900 down to 15,830. They closed less than 20 points off the lows.
The damage was uneven. If we convert to Dow equivalent points, the scorecard looks like this: Dow -129.92; S&P -175; Nasdaq -225 and the Russell 2000 -260.
It was not just bond yields and taper fears."
Flea collar, good one! LOL! Man, I wished I'd been in the market for real estate while mortgage rates were/are so low.
DeleteOkay then, at least close BALT better than $5.52!!!
ReplyDeleteTA?????????
ReplyDeleteENPH - Getting pretty close to the lower trend line going back to June, what is it, about $4.7xish?
ReplyDeleteHow about the next 6 or 8 quarters, how much backlog demand remains?
DeleteA surge in Pentagon contracts (They have to spend it all or fight to justify their budget next cycle).
ReplyDelete1740 - Next stop just to prove December isn't always a good month?
ReplyDeleteAdded ENPH at 4.8
ReplyDeleteDefinitely capitulation in my opinion. Heavy volume at the bottom of a 50% down move. we'll see if it bounces..
DeleteAdded last bit at $4.7
DeleteMy stink bid is at $4.22, who knows. Wonder why it's getting flogged?
DeleteI think it would be good to see a bit of indiscriminate selling and a bit of panickyness in the market with this sell off. Get some of the sentiment indicators down and set up some better buys for the next step up.
ReplyDeleteTwo dozen US companies sighted for averting sanctions against Iran.
ReplyDeleteFSYS might be on this list, not sure.
Milker Bills - Congressional tool used to threaten corporations into making political contributions. So corporations actually like participating (voluntarily and/or forced) in the political process?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Here we are, back to the trend line with a $220 double top.
ReplyDeleteBoehner - Maybe this guy isn't so bad after all, I don't see him getting teary-eyed so much anymore either......
Mazda leads fuel mileage race with 27MPG... Heck, where's the progress, my old Buick V6 gets that!
My old Toyota Corolla got 40mph if I threw it in neutral on downhills.
DeleteYou're funny! You qualify as an extreme "hyper-miler" for throwing it in neutral, removing the inner door panels, rear seat and over-inflating the tires.
DeleteMUX - If you held from $3.90 then you've been handed a 50% haircut.
ReplyDeleteBAC is green now, so too is XLF, which has been bouncing g/r all day.
ReplyDeleteSo is the RUT
DeleteIt's been a long time since I've seen a daily RSI_EMA reading of sub 7 before. ENPH hit 6.65.
ReplyDelete6.55! wow. gonna snap back ferociously when it does, barring a bankruptcy!
DeleteI added more at $4.66...avg is $4.85.
DeleteGood summary. Definitely worth a read - David Rosenberg very positive on the US economy for 2014:
ReplyDeletehttp://business.financialpost.com/2013/12/11/david-rosenberg-why-the-u-s-economy-in-2014-has-more-upside-than-many-think/
"It is open for debate as to how the stock market will respond, but it is not too difficult to predict where bond yields will be heading (up) since they are, after all, cyclical by nature. Within equities, this means caution on the rate-sensitives and the macro backdrop will augur for growth over value."
I mean this guy was consistently bearish for a while but I think he's right. I do think the markets are completely independent of the economy in the short term, though. Having said that, I can envision a scenario where Europe, the US, and Japan are growing at 3% and we haven't had that for years. I do think the longer term looks fine. That's kind of why I'm just sticking with my longs in BALT / AA because over the longer term they will be fine. The shorter term who the hell knows.
DeleteUS growth estimates were recently reduced, maybe it was the WTO, can't recall, estimate was less than 3%. Underpromise overdeliver or someone jerking markets around to justify their existence?
DeleteSVM - Trend persistence, new 52wk low
ReplyDeleteNice bottoming tail hammer forming in ENPH. Let's see if it can stay here or even close up above $5.
ReplyDeleteYeah, just noticed the h&s neckline around $7.50 for an -$2 target of ~$5.50
DeleteAhh, warranty obligation growth?
Deletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1888141-enphase-anemic-revenue-growth-with-alarming-warranty-obligation-growth?source=yahoo
CCH - This one has fallen out the bottom of it's flag, seems deserved considering the PE h&s target looks like $22
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Last chance under $6!!!!!!!! There's even an gap down from $6.09 :)
ReplyDelete(a) EEM continues to slide, although now (-0.5%) well off this morning’s lows.
ReplyDelete(b) Bonds also continue to slide, and currently nears day’s low (-0.4%)
(c) GDX -1%, an improvement over an earlier -3% selloff which saw many mining stocks set new 52-wk lows. Spot gold now -31/oz to 1226.
(d) The DJIA is off -85 points, but surprisingly the NDQ is green.
I don't really see a good pitch right now.
I actually thought about making a small buy today for the first time in a while, but judging by how the market is closing, I'm glad I didn't.
DeleteDip buyers are getting smoked.
DeleteIt seems the close was sold for the stocks I've checked.so far. Wonder if it'll be a December to remember.......
DeleteNWLI - There's the $206 gap up, last one is at $200.73
ReplyDeleteRH- Tough spot here. Damn.
ReplyDeleteLooks like uncertainty is winning the day.
DeleteOkay, waiting for silver to shoot up $1 and fade back again........
ReplyDeleteSpringheel Jack @shjackcharts
ReplyDeleteHere is my bear scenario on the #SPX 60min: http://screencast.com/t/n5SvM5JF
Would be about a 10% pullback - certainly not out of the realm of possibilities.
DeleteWas just looking back at my notes from a week or so ago and I can't remember the reason why, but I mapped out a 1812 > 1770 > marginal new highs > 1740 before bottoming for a meaningful rally. I probably should have traded this with options for the hell of it cuz it's almost exactly what's happening. Looks like 1740 would coincide with just above those Sept highs and right around the early Nov lows...and more importantly it would give the feel of having lost prior support from the 1770s level...
ReplyDeleteI sold 20% of my position in ENPH at $4.9 and $4.88 heading into the close because what was a tiny position turned into a decent sized position and I didn't want carry that into tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteSmart.
DeleteRH - There's sub $60
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteGuys, hate to say it but Ole Martin Armstrong has been sooo... [#122170]
By: jimddavis (95 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
December 12, 2013 at 9:36 am
Guys, hate to say it but Ole Martin Armstrong has been sooo right on this downtrend in Gold and Silver for the past several years. I listened to him and He saved me $$$$$. He is still negative, but talks like a bounce may be coming after the first of the year. Good luck all
To add another read, I have much easier time seeing gold... [#122172]
By: Vadym Graifer (4268 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
December 12, 2013 at 1:39 pm
To add another read, I have much easier time seeing gold testing and most likely losing $1000 than reversing its downtrend here. Barring WW3 breaking out, this chart is indicating nothing even remotely resembling reversal to me. Breakdown and trend continuation is the only trade I would be placing.
The times they are a-changin'! It wasn't that long ago I was banned for simply suggesting that gold bugs make like the Silver Surfer rather than hold through every downdraft while insisting 5000/oz was around the corner.
DeleteVad suggests a target of 1100.
DeleteSome guy named 'Harp' swings by and pulls 1650 out of a hat.
At this point there may be a handful of followers who still give a ----. The rest have either moved on to real strategies or are scared ----less.
Here's a link I posted as well ...
Deletehttp://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=55664&mode=view
But Bill's headed back to Bahamas ... so that's good ...
Deletehttp://www.billcara.com/cara-community/preparing-to-cross-the-gulfstream/
I pity the penniless fools forced to swim the Atlantic just to see the whites of his eyes.
DeleteCP - I went to Bill's 1st 2009 Bahamas conference. Before I left, a friend at work told me to go to the Bahamas & enjoy the conference and the sun but don't leave any money down there. Now I wasn't going to sign up for anything anyway, BUT it was good advice. There was this ~28yr old guy there from Oregon that I met over one of the lunches. He worked for NOAA ... a weather dude ... said he worked the night shift so as to trade the market during the day. Said he was managing his family's money after his dad passed and his mom needed help and that he had recently opened an account w/ Bill's whatever. I Hope he didn't ride it down to far. Nice Guy. ....
DeleteI was thinking of posting the following:
Delete[Gold: Eyes on $900
Gold is breaking down from the painful, debilitating double bottoms and is setting up to switch gears from sliding to plunging.
Over the next 9 months, gold will drop to the price target of $900; such a move will give gold stock investors a plethora of pain in the form of a likely wipeout.]
Mine took the same amount of time and half the amount of alcohol.
...speaking of alcohol...
DeleteMaybe with alcohol we can get it down to $450 .... :-)
DeleteThat sounds good. Then I can afford to buy my wife the jewelry she wants.
DeleteMark- I know you mentioned that RH would announce today, but I don't think you opened a position.
DeleteAH's and got hit after good earnings. Co-CEO quit but will stay on Board. I almost did AH's but will see how it trades in the morning. AH low was about 56.10 ish.
DeleteMight even open above $60, wouldn't surprise me!
DeleteAnyone else use Yahoo Finance to get stock news?
ReplyDeleteSeems they've decided not to include press releases in the portfolio view of stocks with the new version, so I've been missing out on a ton of news on stocks lately. What a huge pain!
Anyone have a better site to use? I've tried Google Finance previously and it was worse.
I don't understand why companies like Yahoo do this. Now, I have to go into every stock individually to check for news to make sure I don't miss something.
I use thinkorswim from Td ameritrade for everything. Best platform I can find.
DeleteTGIBF13......!
ReplyDeleteWe note that Mr. Eric Sprott has been ousted from his
ReplyDeleteposition as the lead manager of the Sprott Fund following
his long standing and very vocal bullish endorsement of
gold in US dollar terms. His fund, which once was $3
billion, has fallen to only $300 million as redemptions
have simply cascaded. Mr. Sprott is and always has
been a gentleman and a very, very wise investor, but he
like so many others fell in love with gold in dollar terms
and that “affair” has obviously gone awry. The “divorce”
decree was signed yesterday, apparently.
Did you write that?! Funny. ..
DeleteMy bad, that's from Gartman's letter. The guy can't trade himself out of a wet bag.
DeleteGod, when I read the dollar terms part I though it was a joke and thought of gartman but would never have believed he wrote it in Yen terms!
DeleteDon't feel sorry for Sprott. He made something kike a billion dollars when he took his company public near the peak of the gold bull market.
DeleteI think the last time he had this chart, stocks were undervalued on 14 of 15 metrics, but now, 12 of 15 metrics, so even though a pullback is very possible, stocks are generally still cheap.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/12/12/us-stocks-cheap-on-12-of-15-historical-valuation-measures/
DeleteI get it that investment advisors are bullish. I think a 4 or 5% correction would mitigate that. If we rally from here I still think we could get one in the short term to wash the excesses of their optimism away. However, when people suggest excessive bullishness I think they're referring to the nearer term...as in most people see us hitting say 1900. But I wonder if people are bullish enough.
DeleteLet's say we get expansion from the government sector + Europe growth of 2-3% + Japanese growth of 2-3% + China re accelerating + India growing into a powerhouse + Brazil growing steadily again all at the same time. Perhaps it would mean inflation...who knows. But it could also mean 2,500 on the S&P
Great day in the morning! :)
ReplyDeleteSold ENPH at $5.20
ReplyDeleteI actually forgot that I still have 1500 shares in another account. I think I'll hold that for now.
DeleteAhhh screw it. Sold the rest at $5.4
DeleteEPI @ 16.65...
ReplyDeleteNM absolutely killing it right now.
ReplyDeleteReopening EEM @ 40.87.
ReplyDeleteRH - I'm guessing the departing CEO was the recent inside seller?
ReplyDeleteWill also reopen RYWVX @ the 1030 window.
ReplyDeleteI happened to reread a quote by Templeton last night. We may think we have the fortitude to buy at the point of maximum pessimism but when the time comes we often find out otherwise.
ReplyDeleteThe only 'work around' is to have a limit order (mental or physical) in place. For me, the mental limit order on EEM earlier this week was right around here. I noticed yesterday I didn't have the balls during the morning selloff. Here we are again. So I'm hitting the bid.
2nd - I've found the best way for me personally to overcome this fear is to buy gradually. I also typically like to buy shit that is beaten to a pulp where there are even fears of bankruptcy in some cases so its essentially to take up this strategy for survival.
DeleteMore on the above tonight.
ReplyDeleteAll dry bulkers killing it today...except GNK of course, which may be holding back BALT temporarily???
ReplyDeleteSB
SBLK
DSX
NM
All up huge.
REFR setting up for a capitulation type trade just like ENPH...
ReplyDeleteI picked up a few shares of EGLE at $3.14. I mentioned that I wanted some exposure to GNK/EGLE because if the BDI keeps rising then those with the worst balance sheet could have the biggest returns. Well, if you look at the chart of EGLE it still held the most recent lows even after the rumors of a debt restructuring brought it down last week. That's a positive I think. Not sure if it will hold and how long I'll hold for.
ReplyDeleteHippity-hoppity! :)
Delete"We are pleased to bring our clients the latest installment of the Year Ahead for the Materials & Industrials team. Our top picks for the new year are AVY, CSX, EMN, ETN, FLR, F, FCX, GD, LOPE, NUE, RHI, SLW, LUV, TOL, and URI. Industrials sets up better than Materials heading into 2014. Pension and non-res construction should also provide tailwinds."
ReplyDeleteBACML
YRCW
ReplyDeleteI was looking at that chart a few days ago and the thought came to me that we were making a mistake not having $$ in it. Its probably dumb but I always refer to that FWLT chart from like 9 years ago whenever I look at YRCW. They also went through a near death experience / reverse split, massive convertibles etc.
DeleteINT - Sure wish I'd jumped on this one! :) I guess it comes back to us as it always seems to do.
ReplyDelete1770 - A number we were contemplating some time ago, by my recollection.
ReplyDeleteLas Vegas Sands: LVS no longer pursuing Spanish resort
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteEven after it's run, NM still at less than 80% of book value, so good valuation support for the stock. Plus a safe balance sheet and buying undervalued assets through this downturn so well positioned for a market rebound. Seem to be doing a lot of things right.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-13/ship-industry-seen-by-morgan-stanley-at-start-of-two-year-rally.html?cmpid=yhoo
DeleteI hate it when big banks talk something up, makes me think they're actually selling.
DeleteYeah, funny how they can say we are at the start of a 2-year rally when stocks like NM have almost tripled this year!
DeleteBut, the way I look at it is the first part of the rally, which we've had, is the bounce from being very undervalued, getting back to a more normal valuation. The next leg, which could last a few years, is the growth of the industry where the market grows, stocks earnings grow, and they get higher valuations. After that, we may or may not have a momentum, overvaluation stage.
I think MS missed the first part of the rally (that Wilbur Ross and the distressed investor types caught) and is now seeing the second part of the rally.
For some of these shippers I think they're still stuck in the first leg. The thing that had me interested initially is this is an essential industry that while it definitely has cyclicality to it, it is also a direct beneficiary of global growth. There are going to be periods of overgrowth of supply just like in 2008 which will kill the industry. But I think that was a once in a 10 to 20 year bubble, if not longer, and I think after coming out of this downturn all companies in the industry will be a lot more risk averse, which should set the stage for a very long bull market. The demand for the products they ship doesn't appear to be going away anytime soon.
DeleteI kind of look at it as a smaller version of the ground transportation industry, which goes through big cycles where you could either buy and hold and still make some money or you can buy near the troughs and sell during euphoria and make a lot more money.
BALT - Needs to hang onto these gains, not drop under $5.52 Go BALT, Go!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteRH - Would've been a nice ride back up, damn! :)
ReplyDeleteI have no Fing idea why I'm sitting here.
ReplyDeleteSame here, certainly in my case it's dementia.
DeleteAt least you have an excuse.
Delete(a) EEM currently bidding 41.04 (+0.4%). EPI flat (compared to this morning’s purchase price).
ReplyDelete(b) TLT (long bond) +0.44%.
(c) GDX (miners) +0.9%.
My thinking is that divergence between emerging markets and US indexes will revert to mean over the next 12 months. I’m also expecting a year-end rally (most likely beginning in earnest around December 23, but could occur anytime). This week’s ‘taper tantrum’ may be over soon (selling the rumor + buying the news, if you will). Whether US averages spike hard or tread water, there is the potential for emerging markets to break out to new highs
I'm taken a grand out of the bank and heading to the new casino tonight. So there.
ReplyDeleteYou're buying a miner after hours?
DeleteBoth qualify as spending the entire amount in the same place!
DeleteFrom Caldaro's EOD write-up: http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
ReplyDeleteThe market opened higher today, then, simply put, traded within the OEW 1779 pivot range for the rest of the day. Today’s low, SPX 1772 could have ended the first part of a larger ABC structure from the SPX 1814 high. Thus far we can count an A: 1786-1800-1779, a B: 1796-1783-1812, and a potentially completed C: 1772-1783-1772. If so, we should see a decent rally next: possibly into the 1790′s. If not, once 1772 is broken the decline will continue on the downside.
ReplyDelete$YRCW. So they basically sold the common, hold only 200K, to buy $42.8M of 10% currently convertible notes. Those convert to 1.6M shares
About a month ago I spoke with the CEO of GNK to try to get a handle on the impact a bankruptcy filing would have on BALT since GNK owns a 20% of so economic (and 70% or so voting) interest in BALT. The CEO said "what makes you so sure GNK is going bankrupt?" in a way that suggested to me he already knew they were going to be working out a deal with their creditors. I knew the answer fairly well already as to the impact on BALT (ie none really just that control would shift to the creditors of GNK in such a scenario) but I wanted to hear it from the horses mouth. I remember thinking at the time that I wonder if they are going to pull off a restructuring of their debt. That's when I started looking into prior financial results of GNK and realized that if rates turn they could be highly profitable with an additional kicker from BALT they never had before. Now we also know that Centerbridge bought $600 million of GNKs debt at a 10% discount to par and they also own about 17% or so of equity in BALT. So in the scenario that GNK wasn't able to negotiate favorable terms with the other debt holders and goes bankrupt Centerbridge would own 30% or so of BALT as downside protection. The upside is they own about that much of BALT and a good chunk of GNK as well and if the other debt holders
ReplyDelete(Cont) do agree to extend their debt then Centerbridge gets a nice one two shot from their equity position in BALT and debt position in GNK.
DeleteAnyway I bought back into GNK yesterday. Small position at 1.9x to go along with EGLE at 3.1x. Total is about 7% figuring it could be a 10
Bagger or bust. I also so some more AA to do this
Just wondering....... So perhaps if the debt refinancing with GNK goes well enough, Centerbridge might be enticed to roll their BALT position into GNK, maybe? That might mean selling their BALT position or GNK buying out BALT, or BALT buying out GNK?
DeleteI have a little fear the dealings between BALT and GNK might be a mechanism to unload deadwood into one or the other.
If interested, Caldaro's EOW Wave-Structure write-up is posted @ http://caldaro.wordpress.com/
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link, I'll be looking that over for sure!
DeleteBudget agreement rally? I must've blinked, seriously can't trade that short of a time horizon.
DeleteCP - I like this guy Caldaro ... mainly because it has been the 1st EW discussion I've been able to understand... :-) BUT there are other wave counts out there and many of them have structures that are also very plausible. I've been working through Ian Copsey's book 'Harmonic Elliott Wave' analysis. He has a $DJIA chart on p. 185 (I can post it if ur interested) that would imply that Super-Cycle 1 [SC1] was the 1929 high, SC2 was the 1932 low, SC3 was the long run up to the 2007 high, SC4 was the 666 low, and we're now on the FED-induced final SC5 push up to wherever??? before the BIG DOWN-ward correction after all this Central-Bank crap implodes.
DeletePerhaps we can discuss further if you're interested
Yes, of course I'm interested.
DeleteI'm in disagreement that Central-Bank crap might implode at this point though, I'm more inclined to believe the global economy is transitioning into a growth spurt mode. This is based on the theory we eventually seem to outgrow(operative term) these economic recessions and I think that phase has begun but this time it's a global synchronization with emerging markets inclusive of Mongolian Yak farmers tired of living in tents and ready to make their grand entry into the modern world, willing to allow colonialism to plunder their natural resources in exchange for such modern conveniences as comfy heated toilet seats, hot and cold running water, corn-fed pork and pork by-products, farm-raised fish from Viet Nam with unhealthy levels of heavy metals and otherwise fatty diets known to cause diabetes, etc.
Take a look at who the folks are that are harping the doomsday scenario, who are they and what are their motives?
DeleteCP -- you know this Twitter stuff is amazing. Just this wekk, I've been looking at this guy's analysis from Bulgaria ...
Deletehttps://twitter.com/elroytrader Some very interesting charts. There was a chart in his stream that caught my eye wrt different wave-count. Here's the link see if it works....
http://rt7.t.prorealtime.com/ProRealTimeNew/display_chartimage.phtml?name=tjb9bowk4howa69e1n40qy2uy&type=png&purpose=share_twitter
$DJIA -- Here is Copsey's DJIA count ...
Deletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/FDggQDcFzsCj
CP -- if you believe in the "global economy is transitioning into a growth spurt mode" view, then that would be consistent w/ Caldaro's labeling that SC2 ended w/ the 666 low and we're now on Cycle [1] of the BIG SC3 UP-Leg that will last beyond all of us.
Delete"Cycle [1] of the BIG SC3 UP-Leg that will last beyond all of us. "
DeleteNow you're talkin', thanks for calling my attention to this, that's the scenario I'm envisioning. On that note, I'll be taking a closer at Caldero's work and these other links as well.
CP -- OK man ... Look this whole Super-Cycle wave deal is like WhoTF Knows and it has more to do with whether you think capitalism works and whether we will blow ourselves up type of thing IMHO. I'm more interested in the Intermediate/Fine-Structure wave counts and the feeling that 'I'm just not riding the wave structure correctly' in my trading.
DeleteCaldaro's charts end with his Short-Term 60min view. I usually go from there to the very fine-structure charts at http://waveprinciple.blogspot.com/ It's an ongoing effort to anticipate WTF might unfold.
CP -- Glad we're discussing this. Who knows with these fractal structures whether the initial wave ended in 1929, etc BUT, BUT There is a wave-structure here. An interesting dance between stochastics and chaos.
DeleteYeah, we might be about to witness some downside in the near future leading to yet another buying opportunity for long term investment, that's possible. What's your time horizon, how about the next decade or beyond, how's that looking?
DeletePutting the charts aside for a moment, what are your observations and research telling you, are the big swinging dicks(corporate types possessing valuable insight) withdrawing from investment, dumping their positions into strength, or are they positioning themselves strategically for growth, where are their capital resources flowing, what are their strategic plans?
http://managementinnovations.wordpress.com/2008/12/10/tactical-planning-vs-strategic-planning/
CP -- my views tend to be more 'Grym'-like (from the BC blog) to tell you the truth. All of the organizations that I have (or had) direct knowledge of are screwed-up, hosed-up and jacked-up!!!! But you can read about it yourself: over the summer, the washington post released some excerpts from one of the 'Snowden' documents:
Deletehttp://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/inside-the-2013-us-intelligence-black-budget/420/
Flip on down to p.4 -- Reductions / Workforce ... "... continue to reduce our reliance on core contractors." pretty much captures it. I was able to weave-and-dodge until Dec '09 ... man what a zoo!!!!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete