In no particular order, here are comments that caught my eye:
(a) 'Volatility and short-term market swings are part of the nature of markets. When your investing timeline is measured in decades, you cannot afford to continually miss an ongoing rally because of day-to-day volatility.'
(b) 'This is why any prediction-based investment strategy is doomed to failure. The outcome is binary: Your guesses are either right or wrong. Consider instead a probability-based investment approach. The idea behind asset allocation is to allow mean reversion, rebalancing and diversification to work in your favor. No guesswork required.
(c) 'Most of the people I speak with who have missed this huge move have been consuming a diet of doom and gloom. If you think that it doesn’t affect you, you’re kidding yourself. Constantly reading about hyperinflation and the collapse of the dollar and the end of the United States as a world power and the student loan crisis and omigod Obamacare is going to crush America and the Chinese are taking over the world and . . . STOP! Right now.
'It is recession porn, a focus on the negative that is a leftover effect of the crash and great recession.
'Go through your bookmarks, and delete all of these sites: the goldbugs, the end-of-worlders, the doom-and-gloomers, the outraged Fed critics, the Obama haters. They all have agendas that typically have to do with selling you subscriptions or advertising. They are not at all concerned with your returns, your portfolio or your retirement.'
Kyle - I'm not sure the focus of your previous link, it was displayed as a single page with numerous links on my screen. ie: Not sure which link is the one you're directing me to.
And yeah, the inside of the capital beltway is a very special place, unfortunately.
Mine comes up with a document on the RHS that you can scroll down to p. 4, or you can click on Pages and then click on p.4 to get to Reductions. No big deal...
Just checking in. Meant to tell you guys I went all in on January calls on LSI on Friday. Needless to say I'm going to Vegas this weekend to blow all of my cash before the Feds catch on to me:
Let me take this opportunity to remind both of you that such trades NEED TO BE POSTED IN THE BLOG UPON EXECUTION! wtf do you expect the rest of us to do while you're partying!
For once, Rydex pricing of a leveraged fund worked in my favor. I'm usually at a loss to explain why RYWVX (a 2x booster fund) prices below (occasionally above) expectations. RYWVX closed the 1030 est window @ 13.46 (+1.58%), even though EEM was >+1% at the time. However, it closed the 345 pm window @ 13.30 (+0.38%) versus a +0.65% close for EEM?? Taking the 1030 am trade turned out to be the right move. (Had I known what the closing price would be, I might even have reopened a position!)
RYWVX isn't EEM though, right? Surely it's not structured exactly the same. My question on those is what if there are no buyers(or sellers), does the instrument itself track the index real time independent of the bid/ask or is there some corrective factor periodically applied (could be used for an arbitrage)?
Well, you're right in that the compositions of each asset differ to some degree (EEM has modest exposure to European companies, whereas RYWVX does not). So on day like this that would have made a significant difference (Shanghai finished in the red, Europe was strong). But in general there's been decent correlation between the two.
Thanks for pointing this out TOF. I looked at his stuff. He's a little too large-cap, mainstream stocks for me. I generally go for smaller, less well-known stocks with more upside potential. If I look at this returns, it looks like a get a little more than double his with the smaller stocks.
The other thing I've been thinking about is if the last couple of years the yield and dividend growth type stocks may have attracted too much attention as people hunt for income and stock prices have gotten high. It's just anecdotal, but there have been a few of the traditional value guys who are becoming dividend growth investors. I wonder if it means we are late in that cycle as too many people pile into that strategy. I worry about what happens to these stocks being valued on dividends if we get a rate increase.
He says the following. The thing that struck me is it almost exactly the same as another long-term value/cycle type investor wrote last year as he thought dividend growth investing was the new holy grail as well. Maybe it is a better way to invest, or maybe it is more people chasing what has been working.
"PS: I am really excited about dividend growth investing. In fact in 2011, I abandoned my Timing Outlook and other activities based on capital-gains or trading strategies, and I moved the money into the dividend growth strategy. That means that a large percentage of my wife's and my personal assets are now invested using dividend growth principles. I have come to understand that if I get the dividend growth part of my investing right, the portfolio value will take care of itself. I sincerely believe that for the average individual investor, this is the best form of stock investing for the long haul. And that includes me."
LOL no, I don't see it but that's probably not even accounting for a couple reverse splits. Wonder where all the natural resources are coming from these days, Africa/Mongolia?
So I guess their corporate description is no longer true, there should be some other trace metals too, like beryllium I think, in their particular deposit if I recall. Sheesh, guess not, eh, that's kinda disturbing!!!!
"The company produces molybdenum products, primarily molybdic oxide and ferromolybdenum, as well as soluble technical oxide, pure molybdenum tri-oxide, and high purity molybdenum disulfide."
MSFT - Thank you microsoft, for allowing any Tom, Dick, or Harry from the developing world to have more control over my P/C than I do myself........!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GSK - So is there any chance these guys might divert their bribe money for Phd endorsements into a focus on actual product R&D or if need be, technology acquisitions?
I suspect today is the typical low volatility, flatish morning into the fed meeting, followed by huge market swings.
The problem with a day like today is it is more about trying to figure out how the big guys are positioned relative to the news delivered by Bernanke rather than the effects of the Bernanke news.
My guess if is: no taper - we go up as lower rates longer yes taper - we go up as economy is improving
But I'm probably wrong more than right on days like today, so probably we get a drop today.
Those of you who follow EEM, be aware that it's trading ex-dividend today<> which explains the 40.49 'prior close.' In other words, it really is bidding up +0.65% at the moment.
Icky, doesn't look good long term. Wondering, how does one know which companies in that space will succeed absent first-hand knowledge(or knowing someone who has) of the product under development?
I can understand the bearishness but it's been the wrong side of the trade for quite some time and human population is expanding (exponentially, right?). Broad index topping? Maybe, watch Korea, and probably Japan to some extent(Japan has serious societal problems, IMO).
There will be poorly positioned sob stories and winners, I think the best opportunities lie in picking these individual stocks?
Dude, people need to eat and who's to say the emerging market isn't entering it's renaissance, what was Josh obsessing over when ADM was trading in the low $30's? True, buybacks only mean fewer shares to dliute earnings and make the company look more profitable, does Josh present this data normalized or simply hyperventilate over it? Not sure why corporations weren't buying back hand over fist at SPX 666, were there any? Those were the smart guys who knew what they were doing, they had good strategic planning and likely still do! What if emerging market growth does happen?
Believe it was the QE's that facilitated to borrowing @ 0 to do the buy backs and that didn't get really cranked up until Aug 2010? and beyond if I recall correctly.
Yeah, I just remember all the stories pointing out how cashed-up corporate America was, and wondering what they intended on doing with the cash. I guess some bought back stock while others were hunkering down like deer in the headlights, while others were acquiring strategic assets. There are some companies out there being run by individuals who know how to run and grow a corporate business, assuming they're not just in it to stuff their own pockets.
Wonder how many yak farmers will take out a loan in order to buy a whirlpool appliance over the next couple decades?
I think refr is setting up just like enph. Watch it close over next week for capitulation type selling (few big lots going thru at market way below bid price) and then it's a buy in my opinion.
Bb I think ur observation on van knapp (sensible stocks) about jumping on late to a trend (div growth stocks) that's working is very astute. I didn't realize he recently changed his strategy. Hats telling
I really think these types of assets have attracted a lot of attention and there's been too much yield chasing the last few years. You saw it in bonds, REIT's, large dividend payors and even leaking through into the broad large-cap indexes as these have a lot of these dividend stocks.
This year has seen a lot of these assets take hits as rates have started to rise, but I think we are at the start of multi-year underperformance for many of these. I'm mainly staying away from assets valued on income streams or are sensitive to higher rates and preferring stocks valued on assets, P/E, cash flow, growth, etc. or those that do better in higher rate environments.
Generally speaking yes and yes. It's more the rate spread between short and long term rates that helps banks I think than the actual rate level though.
But I think you have to be careful with companies like REIT's, utilities, telco's, etc. which have a lot of debt. Plus a lot of the consumer staples like stocks like MCD, JNJ, with slowish growth and high yields could be at risk.
(a) Emerging Markets spike +2%! (b) DJIA up +200 points! (c) Bonds initially spike, then sink on the news.
No position, and no interest in taking one here. I briefly considered a 1030 am est position in RYWVX, but opted to sit. Having already made two successful trades in Emerging Markets over the past two weeks, I have no regrets missing today’s rally (which I would be selling into at any rate).
Let’s not forget the miners (unless you’re an investor!). Gold/GDX also initially spike on the news, and now retreating to the day’s lows. I think we’re closing in on a tradeable low, but as Mark Hulbert pointed out recently> As long as traders buy on the slightest excuse for a rally, it’s still too early…
I was doing more math on the baltic dry index now that it has fallen the past few days and the average for the quarter is still rising. It's now up to 1834 which is 42% higher than last quarter. At this rate, BALT's EBITDA is most likely going to be around $0.11 this quarter. I believe BALT uses this to determine it's dividend payout rate; however, I think they will be conservative this quarter due to recent volatility, so perhaps an increase to $0.04 this quarter is what they will settle with.
I kind of hate EBITDA / non GAAP crap but this is one of the few times that I think it's not that bad only because they do a large chunk of their ship purchases via equity. Any EPS calculations take into account a hit from the dilution of an equity raise. So while for book purposes they need to account for depreciation in full, I think its possibly more accurate to use EBITDA, which backs out depreciation. Depreciation is a huge expense for these shippers...this quarter alone will account for about $0.10 to $0.11 in earnings.
Anyway, I sold the rest of my AA and bought more BALT today around $5.29 to $5.35.
Right...and the theory is they will be paying the majority of those out as dividends. So that too would imply about a 7.4% current yield.
The reason I like it is the leverage. Get avg dry index rates up to 3,000 then you have EPS of $0.35/Q and EBITDA of $0.45/Q. This assumes the new ships they bought are on board and all of the associated costs / dilution is factored in. Get the avg up to 4,000 then you have $0.60/Q EPS and $0.70/Q EBITDA. Hence why I think BALT *could* get to $30 to $40 by 12/31/15.
Spot rates are volatile but I predict they will be less volatile going forward b/c shippers (and banks financing those ships) are well aware of the impact of oversupply on spot rates and they won't be going crazy with ship purchases for a long, long time.
Actually my EBITDA estimates above are too low by about $0.05 in each scenario. I'm estimating Depreciation at $6,540 per quarter with the new ships on board (vs $3,850 last quarter)
I've noticed the comments have migrated from hatred of everything US to actually commenting on the merits of what the people are saying on these videos...if we have 3 phases of sentiment in bull markets then we're definitely out of phase 1 and probably toward the end of phase 2. Phase 3 is euphoria...probably still a good deal away from that...
ummm maybe i spoke too soon...not a bullish comment to be seen...but the volume of comments is down. there's probably a lot of money in tracking this things
Today's rally has finally prompted me to place inverse index ETFs on the watch list. Among the ones which generate the most volume:
(a) DXD (-2x DJIA) (b) SDS (-2x SPX) (c) QID (-2x Nasdaq 100) (d) TZA (-3x Russell 2000). Along with its cousin TNA (+3x Russell 2000), the only 3x funds I play due to the 'fast' nature of price movements in small caps (ie, it's usually easier to 'game' traders in the Russell 2000, as institutional traders are generally absent).
The US indexes may well end 2014 higher than where they are today, but I plan to have some fun on the short side along the way.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/missed-the-big-market-rally-heres-what-to-do-now/2013/06/14/b9b96894-d1e3-11e2-a73e-826d299ff459_story.html
ReplyDeleteRitholtz with a few searing comments for investors who sat out the 2009-13 rally.
In no particular order, here are comments that caught my eye:
Delete(a) 'Volatility and short-term market swings are part of the nature of markets. When your investing timeline is measured in decades, you cannot afford to continually miss an ongoing rally because of day-to-day volatility.'
(b) 'This is why any prediction-based investment strategy is doomed to failure. The outcome is binary: Your guesses are either right or wrong. Consider instead a probability-based investment approach. The idea behind asset allocation is to allow mean reversion, rebalancing and diversification to work in your favor. No guesswork required.
(c) 'Most of the people I speak with who have missed this huge move have been consuming a diet of doom and gloom. If you think that it doesn’t affect you, you’re kidding yourself. Constantly reading about hyperinflation and the collapse of the dollar and the end of the United States as a world power and the student loan crisis and omigod Obamacare is going to crush America and the Chinese are taking over the world and . . . STOP! Right now.
'It is recession porn, a focus on the negative that is a leftover effect of the crash and great recession.
'Go through your bookmarks, and delete all of these sites: the goldbugs, the end-of-worlders, the doom-and-gloomers, the outraged Fed critics, the Obama haters. They all have agendas that typically have to do with selling you subscriptions or advertising. They are not at all concerned with your returns, your portfolio or your retirement.'
Personally, I find the recession/goldbug porn useful indicators of sentiment.
DeleteI agree 2nd that it's important for the sentiment factor.
DeleteI dunno, kinda think that sentiment is too consistent to be of any use. We'll see, I guess.
DeletePretty logical article. Tough not to feel bad about missing this huge bull, but all you can do is move forward.
ReplyDeleteKyle - I'm not sure the focus of your previous link, it was displayed as a single page with numerous links on my screen. ie: Not sure which link is the one you're directing me to.
ReplyDeleteAnd yeah, the inside of the capital beltway is a very special place, unfortunately.
Mine comes up with a document on the RHS that you can scroll down to p. 4, or you can click on Pages and then click on p.4 to get to Reductions. No big deal...
Deletehttp://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/inside-the-2013-us-intelligence-black-budget/420/
Yeah, I've got it now, this link is the Snowden-released document. Still, I think we all were expecting reduced government spending, no?
Delete(U) Reductions
*(S) Workforce - continue to reduce our reliance on core contractors.
http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/781537-cbjb-fy13-v1-extract.html#document/p4
2nd-let me know when the ripetide is gone.
ReplyDeleteI know what you mean. I spent a restless night fighting the China PMI riptide.
DeleteEverything seems to be sunny this morning. Good European PMI's have the Dow futures up almost 100.
DeleteBlackrock now holds 10% of Telecom India, eh?
ReplyDeleteTA - Could be a decent entry near here?
ReplyDeleteEEM off @ 41.25...
ReplyDeleteAlways short on faith...
ReplyDeleteI can't imagine why....
DeleteRYWVX will be closed at the 1030 am trading window.
ReplyDeleteAVGO buys LSI - Wow, AVGO's been kickin' butt man.
ReplyDeleteEPI off @ 16.90...
ReplyDeleteReopening ZGNX @ 2.84...
ReplyDeleteOff 2.93...
ReplyDeleteUSU - Ouch, wonder if the creditors will leave any pickin's for common shareholders or if they're wiped out?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Can't track price quotes, price and volume differ depending on the source. Was this thing halted or something?
ReplyDeleteJust checking in. Meant to tell you guys I went all in on January calls on LSI on Friday. Needless to say I'm going to Vegas this weekend to blow all of my cash before the Feds catch on to me:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=LSI&m=2014-01
Great move! :)
DeleteI did the same thing with KFN today, thanks for the great strategy!
DeleteLet me take this opportunity to remind both of you that such trades NEED TO BE POSTED IN THE BLOG UPON EXECUTION! wtf do you expect the rest of us to do while you're partying!
DeleteRYWVX closed the 1030 am window up +1.6%. By now, I expect Rydex to carve out about 0.5% for themselves. I retain the right to say wtf.
ReplyDeleteJust go long Rydex instead!
ReplyDeleteFor once, Rydex pricing of a leveraged fund worked in my favor. I'm usually at a loss to explain why RYWVX (a 2x booster fund) prices below (occasionally above) expectations. RYWVX closed the 1030 est window @ 13.46 (+1.58%), even though EEM was >+1% at the time. However, it closed the 345 pm window @ 13.30 (+0.38%) versus a +0.65% close for EEM?? Taking the 1030 am trade turned out to be the right move. (Had I known what the closing price would be, I might even have reopened a position!)
ReplyDeleteRYWVX isn't EEM though, right? Surely it's not structured exactly the same. My question on those is what if there are no buyers(or sellers), does the instrument itself track the index real time independent of the bid/ask or is there some corrective factor periodically applied (could be used for an arbitrage)?
DeleteWell, you're right in that the compositions of each asset differ to some degree (EEM has modest exposure to European companies, whereas RYWVX does not). So on day like this that would have made a significant difference (Shanghai finished in the red, Europe was strong). But in general there's been decent correlation between the two.
DeleteHitting the sack early. Fighting that -1.6% Shanghai riptide last night didn't make for a good night's sleep.
DeleteThanks TOF. I'll take a look.
ReplyDeleteThanks for pointing this out TOF. I looked at his stuff. He's a little too large-cap, mainstream stocks for me. I generally go for smaller, less well-known stocks with more upside potential. If I look at this returns, it looks like a get a little more than double his with the smaller stocks.
ReplyDeleteThe other thing I've been thinking about is if the last couple of years the yield and dividend growth type stocks may have attracted too much attention as people hunt for income and stock prices have gotten high. It's just anecdotal, but there have been a few of the traditional value guys who are becoming dividend growth investors. I wonder if it means we are late in that cycle as too many people pile into that strategy. I worry about what happens to these stocks being valued on dividends if we get a rate increase.
He says the following. The thing that struck me is it almost exactly the same as another long-term value/cycle type investor wrote last year as he thought dividend growth investing was the new holy grail as well. Maybe it is a better way to invest, or maybe it is more people chasing what has been working.
"PS: I am really excited about dividend growth investing. In fact in 2011, I abandoned my
Timing Outlook and other activities based on capital-gains or trading strategies, and I
moved the money into the dividend growth strategy. That means that a large percentage
of my wife's and my personal assets are now invested using dividend growth principles. I
have come to understand that if I get the dividend growth part of my investing right, the
portfolio value will take care of itself. I sincerely believe that for the average individual
investor, this is the best form of stock investing for the long haul. And that includes me."
HLF - Given a clean bill of health, now how about NUAN?
ReplyDeleteXCO- Lots of info out today if one has the time to go through it.
ReplyDeleteAn attempt at painting a puuurrrrty picture, maybe?
DeleteMaybe. New CEO etc. Might be about as clean a look as one would get.
DeleteWell, it's red now whatever that means.......
DeleteAA - Oh AA, you magnificent slut!
ReplyDeleteIDX - Yesterday bought early then sold off, so far a repeat of groundhog day?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Dang near hit my stink bid to add and might still, rough seas ahead?
ReplyDeleteMissed it by a red cent! :( Maybe it comes back for a retest?
DeleteMore than likely two more months of winter for BALT......
DeleteHard to believe my position was green for a total of 3 consecutive days, a testament to how incredibly strong this stock is!
DeleteSWIR - One the fool has been pumping.
ReplyDeleteAre you referring to Motley, or one of the many that we follow?
DeleteSo eurotrash banks hold in some cases 99% of eurozone sovereign debt, will they be forced to raise capital?
ReplyDeleteTC - New lows, and down a considerable amount today.
ReplyDeleteDid you see that research note with a PT. of C.50?
DeleteLOL no, I don't see it but that's probably not even accounting for a couple reverse splits. Wonder where all the natural resources are coming from these days, Africa/Mongolia?
DeleteDid you see the interview with the CEO? He basically tried to say they weren't a Molly play and could be anything else you wanted! Pretty funny stuff.
DeleteSo I guess their corporate description is no longer true, there should be some other trace metals too, like beryllium I think, in their particular deposit if I recall. Sheesh, guess not, eh, that's kinda disturbing!!!!
Delete"The company produces molybdenum products, primarily molybdic oxide and ferromolybdenum, as well as soluble technical oxide, pure molybdenum tri-oxide, and high purity molybdenum disulfide."
That's what makes it so funny. Like listening to a politician.
DeleteOpened a small postion in ENPH @ 5.73.
ReplyDeleteMSFT - Thank you microsoft, for allowing any Tom, Dick, or Harry from the developing world to have more control over my P/C than I do myself........!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteGSK - So is there any chance these guys might divert their bribe money for Phd endorsements into a focus on actual product R&D or if need be, technology acquisitions?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=IMUC+Interactive#symbol=imuc;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
ReplyDeleteProof of concept. Take losses immediately and don't look back.
FIO- What a mess.
ReplyDeleteSo what's our trade tomorrow? Hope for tapper and buy any pull back?
ReplyDeleteI might do some nibbling, thought about it today but decided to wait for a confirmation the end of selling is done.
DeleteREFR- Smoke um if you got um.
ReplyDeleteJapan is kicking ass for some reason.
ReplyDeleteI suspect today is the typical low volatility, flatish morning into the fed meeting, followed by huge market swings.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with a day like today is it is more about trying to figure out how the big guys are positioned relative to the news delivered by Bernanke rather than the effects of the Bernanke news.
My guess if is:
no taper - we go up as lower rates longer
yes taper - we go up as economy is improving
But I'm probably wrong more than right on days like today, so probably we get a drop today.
Housing starts upside blowout, sounds like.
ReplyDeleteCW - How do ya like this chart?
GNK - This chart looks like a bull flag but man, talk about a bearish sentiment!
ReplyDeleteKeith Richards is still alive, really?
SCCO - No longer $25
ReplyDeleteThose of you who follow EEM, be aware that it's trading ex-dividend today<> which explains the 40.49 'prior close.' In other words, it really is bidding up +0.65% at the moment.
ReplyDeleteLong CIE @ 15.15 per MOG. More picks to follow.
ReplyDeleteOkay, I read that and thanks! :)
DeleteGot some, but paid $15.25, do we need more than just a little?
DeleteAngola, eh? Now that sounds exotic, if nothing else!
DeleteI'd be careful with it, so probably best to keep it small and try and trade it. Any size should go to. PXD/CXO.
DeleteOkay, out at $15.69, looking at CXO now, bid @ $100 but might've missed that.
DeleteHEI - Sell the pop?
ReplyDeleteOK, here they are...
ReplyDeleteCIE- Exploration sizzle and friends.
CXO/PXD- Shale oil
AR/VET- Flyers on gas rebound.
I like CXO, Midland is the Permian.
DeleteCheck out IMUC, as in IM*UC*ed...
ReplyDeleteIcky, doesn't look good long term. Wondering, how does one know which companies in that space will succeed absent first-hand knowledge(or knowing someone who has) of the product under development?
DeleteCIE- Wow, was that lucky so far.
ReplyDeleteI took it off, $15.69 for a nice trip to the grocery store. Thx, MOG (and Mark)! :)
DeleteAA - Just relentless, is all I can say..........
ReplyDeleteI guess yesterday was all about nervous traders preparing for today's unknown.
ReplyDeleteDowntown Josh Brown @ReformedBroker
ReplyDeleteThe S&P 500 has paid out $339 billion in dividends and bought back $700 billion in stock this year.
Shareholders are thrilled, why grow?
I can understand the bearishness but it's been the wrong side of the trade for quite some time and human population is expanding (exponentially, right?). Broad index topping? Maybe, watch Korea, and probably Japan to some extent(Japan has serious societal problems, IMO).
DeleteThere will be poorly positioned sob stories and winners, I think the best opportunities lie in picking these individual stocks?
Dude, people need to eat and who's to say the emerging market isn't entering it's renaissance, what was Josh obsessing over when ADM was trading in the low $30's? True, buybacks only mean fewer shares to dliute earnings and make the company look more profitable, does Josh present this data normalized or simply hyperventilate over it? Not sure why corporations weren't buying back hand over fist at SPX 666, were there any? Those were the smart guys who knew what they were doing, they had good strategic planning and likely still do! What if emerging market growth does happen?
DeleteBelieve it was the QE's that facilitated to borrowing @ 0 to do the buy backs and that didn't get really cranked up until Aug 2010? and beyond if I recall correctly.
DeleteYeah, I just remember all the stories pointing out how cashed-up corporate America was, and wondering what they intended on doing with the cash. I guess some bought back stock while others were hunkering down like deer in the headlights, while others were acquiring strategic assets. There are some companies out there being run by individuals who know how to run and grow a corporate business, assuming they're not just in it to stuff their own pockets.
DeleteWonder how many yak farmers will take out a loan in order to buy a whirlpool appliance over the next couple decades?
URG - Well, this one seems to be hanging onto gains.
ReplyDeleteSold another 1/4 of aa and picked up more enph (bot some test at $5.78). Also bought balt yesterday at 5.3.
ReplyDeleteI think refr is setting up just like enph. Watch it close over next week for capitulation type selling (few big lots going thru at market way below bid price) and then it's a buy in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteBb I think ur observation on van knapp (sensible stocks) about jumping on late to a trend (div growth stocks) that's working is very astute. I didn't realize he recently changed his strategy. Hats telling
ReplyDeleteI really think these types of assets have attracted a lot of attention and there's been too much yield chasing the last few years. You saw it in bonds, REIT's, large dividend payors and even leaking through into the broad large-cap indexes as these have a lot of these dividend stocks.
DeleteThis year has seen a lot of these assets take hits as rates have started to rise, but I think we are at the start of multi-year underperformance for many of these. I'm mainly staying away from assets valued on income streams or are sensitive to higher rates and preferring stocks valued on assets, P/E, cash flow, growth, etc. or those that do better in higher rate environments.
Higher rates would seem to help companies with large pension obligations, and squeeze those with too much debt, right?
DeleteAnd, wouldn't higher rates tend to improve revenues for the banking sector?
DeleteGenerally speaking yes and yes. It's more the rate spread between short and long term rates that helps banks I think than the actual rate level though.
DeleteBut I think you have to be careful with companies like REIT's, utilities, telco's, etc. which have a lot of debt. Plus a lot of the consumer staples like stocks like MCD, JNJ, with slowish growth and high yields could be at risk.
SGEN - This one kinda sucks since Krammer pumped it, only has come back to provide longs an out, once.
ReplyDeleteHave the privileged got ahold of the transcript yet?
ReplyDeleteGNK - Holy crap, I wasn't expecting that!
ReplyDeleteBSBR - $6.01 is the entry?
ReplyDeleteFinally in BALT @ 5.31.
ReplyDeleteNow coming to you in high-res three-part harmony: "Go BALT, Go!" :)
DeleteJust give it a couple days, anything that popped or crashed will resume it's previous trend.....
ReplyDeletePM's - Yes of course, silly, these also should be faded as well!
ReplyDeleteThe Fed decides to taper by 10b/month, and…
ReplyDelete(a) Emerging Markets spike +2%!
(b) DJIA up +200 points!
(c) Bonds initially spike, then sink on the news.
No position, and no interest in taking one here. I briefly considered a 1030 am est position in RYWVX, but opted to sit. Having already made two successful trades in Emerging Markets over the past two weeks, I have no regrets missing today’s rally (which I would be selling into at any rate).
EM's - Less taper than expected, good on EM's!
DeleteTepid Tapering, and three fingers of two-cents plain for the teetotalers!
Let’s not forget the miners (unless you’re an investor!). Gold/GDX also initially spike on the news, and now retreating to the day’s lows. I think we’re closing in on a tradeable low, but as Mark Hulbert pointed out recently> As long as traders buy on the slightest excuse for a rally, it’s still too early…
ReplyDeleteGLD kinda sank right away, naturally with some early speculation. Fade the gold!
Deletetradeable low? nah. that comes at $1,000, then $800, then $400.
DeleteI was doing more math on the baltic dry index now that it has fallen the past few days and the average for the quarter is still rising. It's now up to 1834 which is 42% higher than last quarter. At this rate, BALT's EBITDA is most likely going to be around $0.11 this quarter. I believe BALT uses this to determine it's dividend payout rate; however, I think they will be conservative this quarter due to recent volatility, so perhaps an increase to $0.04 this quarter is what they will settle with.
ReplyDeleteI kind of hate EBITDA / non GAAP crap but this is one of the few times that I think it's not that bad only because they do a large chunk of their ship purchases via equity. Any EPS calculations take into account a hit from the dilution of an equity raise. So while for book purposes they need to account for depreciation in full, I think its possibly more accurate to use EBITDA, which backs out depreciation. Depreciation is a huge expense for these shippers...this quarter alone will account for about $0.10 to $0.11 in earnings.
Anyway, I sold the rest of my AA and bought more BALT today around $5.29 to $5.35.
$0.11/Q would seem to imply a current P/E of about 12, then.
DeleteRight...and the theory is they will be paying the majority of those out as dividends. So that too would imply about a 7.4% current yield.
DeleteThe reason I like it is the leverage. Get avg dry index rates up to 3,000 then you have EPS of $0.35/Q and EBITDA of $0.45/Q. This assumes the new ships they bought are on board and all of the associated costs / dilution is factored in. Get the avg up to 4,000 then you have $0.60/Q EPS and $0.70/Q EBITDA. Hence why I think BALT *could* get to $30 to $40 by 12/31/15.
Spot rates are volatile but I predict they will be less volatile going forward b/c shippers (and banks financing those ships) are well aware of the impact of oversupply on spot rates and they won't be going crazy with ship purchases for a long, long time.
Actually my EBITDA estimates above are too low by about $0.05 in each scenario. I'm estimating Depreciation at $6,540 per quarter with the new ships on board (vs $3,850 last quarter)
DeleteDoes this guy {Romney, or for that matter, his political party) actually give a shit?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/02/opinion/mitt-romneys-search-for-simple-answers.html?_r=0
Ummm...Nikkei futures up 4%. Wow.
ReplyDeleteWow, 4% is huge..... Did they announce the restarting of reactors or something earth shattering like that?
DeleteI think it's just due to recoup its losses since 2007. It was a laggard for so many years and now its their time...
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/where-the-world-s-largest-asset-manager-is-bargain-shopping-right-now-154522669.html
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/where-the-world-s-largest-asset-manager-is-bargain-shopping-right-now-154522669.html
ReplyDeleteI've noticed the comments have migrated from hatred of everything US to actually commenting on the merits of what the people are saying on these videos...if we have 3 phases of sentiment in bull markets then we're definitely out of phase 1 and probably toward the end of phase 2. Phase 3 is euphoria...probably still a good deal away from that...
ummm maybe i spoke too soon...not a bullish comment to be seen...but the volume of comments is down. there's probably a lot of money in tracking this things
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/here-s-how-the-dow-gets-to-20-000-in-12-months-193317851.html
Today's rally has finally prompted me to place inverse index ETFs on the watch list. Among the ones which generate the most volume:
ReplyDelete(a) DXD (-2x DJIA)
(b) SDS (-2x SPX)
(c) QID (-2x Nasdaq 100)
(d) TZA (-3x Russell 2000). Along with its cousin TNA (+3x Russell 2000), the only 3x funds I play due to the 'fast' nature of price movements in small caps (ie, it's usually easier to 'game' traders in the Russell 2000, as institutional traders are generally absent).
The US indexes may well end 2014 higher than where they are today, but I plan to have some fun on the short side along the way.
You'll put an eye out with those things! (kidding!)
DeleteDUST - This one looks like it could break out?
ReplyDeleteCCL - Holy crud, that's not fair!
ReplyDeleteGNK - Looks as if we should own this one in our ports.
ReplyDelete