Wednesday, December 4, 2013

12/4/13 Every demon has to have its day

98 comments:

  1. December Mutual Fund Observer, targetted at average public mutual fund investor, quite negative on the markets (another Schiller CAPE believer). For the average non-market person, I think this would be pretty discouraging and make you want to keep your money on the sidelines for another year or two.

    Interestingly, our good friend, John Hussman, rated as one of the worst of the worst for the second year in a row:

    "Dr. Hussman is brilliant. Dr. Hussman has booked negative annual returns for the past 1, 3, 5 and 10 years. Both statements are true, you just need to decide which is relevant."

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    1. That's funny!...unless you invested in his fund of course.

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    2. I don't think GDX goes back 10 years, but it has booked negative annual returns for the past 1, 3 and 5 years.

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    3. Not to be confused with the annual returns of the CTA mining portfolio.

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    4. 2nd - that post from the old site is no different than all of us calling bottoms in October, November, December, January, February, and March of 2008/2009. Lots of people calling bottoms or looking for them means the bottom ain't in.

      The last two months of the bear market were the harshest. We saw -29%. The last month we saw -24%. When the bottom breaks in GDX etc you will most likely get the harshest period of the bear market. -30% in the last 2 months of the fall for GDX? That puts it at $14.X.

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    5. Which is correlated neither with the annual changes in comment count, nor the annual changes in viewership.

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    6. Well, we could say the bottom will be in when the site turns into a travelogue, but let's not get carried away.

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    7. TOF- I was thinking the same thing. There's got to be one ripping drop left. Do you guys remember about a year or 2 ago I posted a link to some dude on CNBC who said 1/2 of the juniors needed to go BK?

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    8. Gold bugs index - HUI, has been around a lot longer than GDX and actually is still up on a 10 year basis, but, more interestingly, still up 500% from it's 2000 low and was up 1500% at the 2011 peak - that was a helluva bull market! Kinda shows why this gold bear is such a grind.

      For fun, you run a chart comparing Hussman since inception to HUI (HUI bottomed around when Hussman started). Hussman still looks like he is in the starting gate.

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    9. Look at JCP. The fall from early 2012 to September 2013 was -66%. As if that wasn't bad enough, it was down 58% over the last month of its fall. That's just nasty.

      NOK? -66% from March 2010 to March 2012. The last 4 months? Down 70%.

      WLT, FSLR, SUNE, and so many others were the same way. Why would GDX and the miners be any different? I just don't see all out panic selling yet.

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    10. I recall posts to that effect (1/2 of juniors -> BK), as well as Sinclair saying by the time it's over with, there will be no margin players left standing. Not sure what all that means though, my guess it's not exactly bullish.
      Rugby is the word that comes to mind.

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    11. Rugby is the polite term for prison riot.

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    12. I have the same take on recent selling in GDX> no discernible panic.

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    13. I have this vision of the 'Wendy's' lady demanding, 'Where's the panic!'

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  2. Replies
    1. Kass blogged about buying blocks of BLOX?

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    2. He bought on the first day after earnings. Nothing since. I just tweeted him to see if he's adding. I'll get back to you.

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    3. I know he tweeted his TWTR transactions.

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    4. BLOX - That's a bull flag by definition, isn't it?

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    5. Damn, Kass can get blindsided as easily as the rest of us.

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    6. Would Landry call that a TKO, or just an old-fashioned 10-count KO?

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    7. 2nd - I have no basis for this other than what I've seen before, but Kass seems to not really have any methodology to his picks. Knife catching? That's a tough game. Unless you know the company inside and out and are very firm on the longer term prospects, knife catching from what I've found is a low probability game. Maybe for a day trade...

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  3. Two for the buy and hold list:
    BNNY
    NOW

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    1. JB loved NOW back at 25ish. Not sure now.

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    2. from everything i've heard and seen with portfolio managers at hedge funds is that NOW is a must have amongst corporate clients. i think it's gonna be one of those stocks that never gets cheap.

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  4. WTF is taking Kass so long to get back to me!

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  5. DMND - Showing improvement since employment has (workplace snack machines)

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  6. I'm tired of buying any random $1 ebook. Any suggestions? Fiction pls.

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  7. CP- Did you get back to me on GMO's projections based on Moly prices?

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    1. There's no copper in Mt. Hope to speak of, production of moly is estimated at ~ $7/lb Apparently there's plenty of moly supply coming from global copper mining projects.

      BACML - "While we forecast positive Mt Hope project economics (2nd quartile moly cash costs at ~$7/lb during first 5 years), we are concerned with the project’s ability to attract further financing amidst weak moly spot prices and outlook."

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  8. Dudes, either THE bottom is in....or Paulson ends up in the soup kitchen lines...

    Go figure: The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has now slid ~55% YTD to a five-year low, yet the fund has nearly doubled in size to $6.8B, as investors have added ~$2.5B despite the dismal performance.
    With stocks at record highs, miners may look relatively cheap vs. other sectors, and funds like GDX and GDXJ appeal to many institutional investors who turn to miner equities as their favorite proxy for gold; indeed, the SPDR Gold Trust has lost $23B-plus YTD in assets under management.
    But demand for gold miner funds isn’t always tied to value investors or long-term buy-and-hold types: Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NUGT) has attracted net asset inflows of more than $1.3B despite a difficult year for returns, while the bearish counterpart fund (DUST) has seen YTD net outflows despite gains of ~200%.

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    1. I was under the impression that Paulson only has like 5% of his assets in gold now

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  9. Speaking of waterfall declines at the end of bear markets...I think it might be time to revisit NIHD. They now have 2.8 to 3 billion in cash and 5.8 billion in debt. Cash burn has gone down the past two quarters and the subscriber churn from what I read was due mostly to Mexico issues at one carrier. Recent asset sales suggest that the rest of the business is worth around 4.5 to 5 billion based on sales priced divided by revenues for those assets. I suspect the company could get a bid from a major carrier given how much spectrum they have (there is only a finite amount of spectrum granted by each country).

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    1. So 4.5 billion + 2.8 billion - 5 billion = 2.3 billion. They have 170 million shares so 2.3 / 0.17 = $13 per share. Factor in cash burn for the next year and you can still come up with a valuation north of $8

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  10. Baltic Dry Index up 7.8% to match the 52 week high today. 2,145 today:
    http://www.dryships.com/pages/report.asp

    Avg is 36% higher than Q3. At 2145 it is up 66% from the Q3 average. To put this into context, here are my calculations for net profit for BALT:

    At Q4 average of 1,756 (current avg) BALT would earn $600,000 in net income for the quarter (about $0.0125 EPS based on fully diluted shares) after taking into account slightly higher capacity (10%) and depreciation and int exp (10%) and I also conservatively estimated higher vessel operation expenses at 25% higher than q3.

    At current spot rate of 2,145 (current avg) BALT would earn $3,600,000 in net income for the quarter (about $0.075 EPS based on fully diluted shares) after taking into account slightly higher capacity (10%) and depreciation and int exp (10%) and I also conservatively estimated higher vessel operation expenses at 25% higher than q3.

    If rates hold around here, I think BALT would up their quarterly dividend to $0.05 or $0.06 from $0.02.

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    1. One other thing I didn't mention, if you factor in the fact that they will have 70% more capacity by mid 2014 from the recent equity raises they did, based on the current spot rate BALT would earn $0.16 per quarter. The dividend would probably be $0.60 annually which is a 12% dividend. As you can see there is massive leverage in this business. The recent equity raises, albeit at below book, could be looked back upon as being brilliant because they got those ships at very depressed prices. We'll see how it plays out.

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  11. All right TOF, what does this mean?

    On a look forward basis, economics for General Moly’s 80% ownership in the Mt. Hope Project, at a $15.00 per pound flat long-term molybdenum price, anticipates an after-tax Net Present Value (NPV), discounted at 8%, to be $707 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 17.6%. General Moly’s 80% ownership in the Mt. Hope Project, which includes the impact of off-takes, other contractual agreements and specific working capital assumptions, equates to $7.72 per current outstanding share. For every $1 change in the molybdenum price between $10 and $20 per pound, the after-tax NPV of the Mt. Hope Project changes by approximately $190 million. The Mt. Hope Project is NPV breakeven at an approximate $11.15 per pound molybdenum price and undiscounted cash flow breakeven (going forward excluding sunk capital as of October 2013) at approximately $9.75 per pound molybdenum price.

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    1. Current Molly prices are about $10.

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    2. Sounds like you better know where Moly prices are headed huh? Why would they use a $15 moly price to determine NPV when it's at $10? What happens if Moly goes to $5?

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    3. net present value

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    4. OK, so are they saying at $11 they are at break even on earnings? Including debt service?

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    5. yep. and cash flow breakeven at 9.75. who came up with these estimates?

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    6. If moly is $10, that makes this is a money loser then right? Just making sure I understand.....

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  12. The new Mustang is pretty sweet.

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    1. ever since that charger came out maybe 5 or 7 years ago its been my favorite power car.

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    2. sorry, CHALLENGER, not charger:
      http://www.dodge.com/en/challenger/

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    3. that's just badass:

      http://www.moibibiki.com/files/images/images640_/dodge-challenger-13.jpg

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    4. That is nice. Too bad it's a Dodge!

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    5. I thought it was the Charger too..., not Challenger. And it's a pretty good looking car, I agree. I think they have another new one called the Dart, even. The name Dart is odd enough to interest me, I like cars with unusual names but they also have to look unique.
      I hear the Mustang gets super mileage, I like that a lot even though I don't drive much anymore.

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    6. Dodge - Sheesh, too bad it's not built just like the old dodge tanks that used to sruise the roads, at least it looks like one (almost), the 70's Super Bee brings a ton of money these days, highly sought after.

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  13. Replies
    1. Wow, what's the story here?

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    2. 11 yr base of "accumulation", up on expanding volume, Soros owns it, they just bought out another company and earnings are now estimated by some(not sure if they're right) at $1/share.

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    3. Took off the 1st half at $7.15, for a penny/share loss on that tranche, in case it falls back this afternoon.

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  14. Natty explosion. It's going to $5 in a heart beat. Traders still don't trust it. That's very positive.

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  15. Lots of demons having fun today.

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  16. Covered my SPY short at $179.2

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  17. "The Price Is Right" - Let's get this show on the road, time is money too!

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  18. BACML - "US Equity Strategy Year Ahead: 2014: Debunking the bear case 12/5/2013 3:52 PM

    We forecast the S&P 500 will climb to 2000 by year-end 2014 (+11%) driven by 7% EPS growth and a bit more multiple expansion. For those worried about what could go wrong in 2014, we address various arguments that we hear against equities. We recommend investors do the opposite of what worked in the last cycle, and buy large, cash-rich, high quality stocks.
    Download PDF Report (2086kb) »

    Chart Talk: S&P 500: 1775 n-t line in the sand; 60-min cloud overhang

    Umm, isn't this a grammatical error in Windows, shouldn't it be "an" instead of "a" document file?:
    "You have chosen to open: XXXXXX.XXX which is a: Adobe Acrobat Document"

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  19. Nice to see the market possibly weeding out the good shippers from the bad. BALT and NM up over 6% while GNK is down and EGLE is about flat.

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  20. Interesting the shippers and Baltic rates, which are economically and trade sensitive, doing so well today on a day the markets are down.

    Maybe we were right about shippers going up as markets go pullbac

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  21. Richard Berstein has a very logical list of predictions for 2014 including the continuation of the stock bull, gold dropping below $1,000 and Euro small-caps being the best performing group in 2014.

    http://rbadvisors.com/templates/dmd/images/pdfs/10for2014.pdf

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  22. Who needs gold when we barely need copper (for some reason), gold isn't an economical substitute for copper (not yet and probably not soon).

    Talk about stretching a penny, sheesh!

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  23. Gap up then run sideways for eternity until anither gap occurs, WTF is up with this shit?

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  24. (a) Miners spiked +2.4% on Wednesday! After several days of silence, all the gold bloggers I follow reappeared to pronounce major reversal patterns in GDX. GDXJ, and GLD!-- Today, GDX is indeed showing a reversal pattern, back down -2.5%!! Never trust a bottom call, especially in a Rodney Dangerfield sector! (Gold itself off -20/oz to 1227.)
    (b) The long bond (TLT) nearing its 52-wk low @ 102.41. This indicates yields are spiking, never a good thing for gold.
    (c) What about emerging markets? EEM off an additional -0.5%, and may slip below 41.
    (d) US indexes? All down.
    (e) JCP? Following a positive earnings announcement earlier this week, it promptly sold off -6%, followed by another -9% today.
    (f) Even a hedge-fund tracking ETF, QAI, is selling off.

    Nothing’s working. Tomorrow is the monthly ‘jobs report,’ which is usually a ‘catalyst’ (at least, in the eyes of the financial media) for a major move. So it’s probably best to stay out of the way, and out of trouble.

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  25. Wait a minute! BALT is working!!

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    1. Yeah, just got a notification that NM is up 10% for the day - crazy on a day like this!

      Hope TOF was fully loaded on his BALT.

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    2. Not fully but a 65% position in BALT. Barring a market meltdown, I think the BDI gets to at least the 2009/2010 highs, which translates into $2+ EPS for BALT and a $30 stock.

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  26. BLOX - Looks like Mark got his answer from Kass, maybe Kiss my ass?.

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  27. Replies
    1. Ford is rocking it these days. I am pretty much a solid Japanese buyer, but am thinking of flipping out getting a Ford.

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    2. I have a 2012 Ford Edge. It's a really nice car.

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    3. That's the one I'm leaning towards. I have a 2007 Acura RDX now, and would probably go try and negotiate on an Edge now, but my dog is 13 years old and has trashed the leather in this car and don't want him to on the next one.

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    4. I got the fabric upholstering because of my son. Its perfectly fine for me. The car is way better than I expected. Really nice car. The only issue I have is the touch screen freezes on us from time to time. It's not the end of the world but I think we need to get a tune up.

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  28. REDF - When will this thing ever hold onto gains?

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  29. Replies
    1. This is from existing share holders.

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    2. OK, this shelf only replaces the one they already had, so no news there.

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  30. NM now my best performing stock of the year. Bought it in 2012 at $3.83 and up 148% YTD (in Canadian $).

    YRCW also going to be one of my 4 stocks for the year as well up 114%.

    Thanks for the great ideas TOF!

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    1. BB - Congrats man. Its nice to finally have a huge up day after seeing so many stops and starts over the past several weeks. I'm sticking by my $30 call for BALT between now and 6/30/15.

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  31. Still thinking we see a bottom around 1770ish...not an arbitrary number, its just below the prior highs.

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