Monday, December 2, 2013
12/2/13 Front Line Winner
Even though I made no trades, it feels that way!
(a) Remember the EEM/RYWVX positions I closed on Friday at 42.2x/ 14.27? They ended up at 41.46/ 13.74 today.
(b) GDX -6.2% to 20.90? We all saw that coming. Capitulation can't be far off. That's temporary capitulation, by the way. I don't think we see full capitulation until the reappearance of the 16-handle seen in '09.
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GGN - Sure has dropped....
ReplyDeleteCAMT - Holy crap, were we watching this one?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Looks like the upside breakout may have been false, as suspected.
ReplyDeleteRevShark's stock of the week. QTWW. Compressed natural gas.
ReplyDeleteOpening a small position in TASR @ 16.55...
ReplyDeleteBitcoin crashed over the weekend.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.sfgate.com/technology/businessinsider/article/I-m-Changing-My-Mind-About-Bitcoin-5026283.php
DeleteDidn't Bitcoin go parabolic just after Bernanke testified he believes virtual currencies are interesting and perhaps useful?
DeleteAnyone think TGT is a buy at these levels?
ReplyDeleteAs long as your willing to bail below 62.00
DeleteOkay, so the news today was about disappointing holiday shopping, apparently.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Wants to be bought, MUX too...
ReplyDeleteIR. Anyone have the energy to look into this one. I know their compressors suck.
ReplyDeleteSpinoff of a division into ALLE.
DeleteBy: westcoaster (1123 comments)
ReplyDeleteNovember 28, 2013 at 1:07 pm
Happy Thanksgiving to my American bretheren and Cdn invaders like Bill. Our blogging ranks have thinned, ironically in the midst of a huge rise in many Cara 100 stocks. Make money where you can.
Re gold which we all care about and are getting thumped on: Coxe and Kevin McLean, two Cdns who follow it closely, say that the liquidation of GLD will continue until it’s gone, as speculators can’t hold on. McLean only buying companies with free cash flow and able to replace and expand reserves out of that cash flow. SMF a poster boy for this.
Big picture:
China is exchanging treasuries for gold bars and this will continue for 5-6 years, and then the yuan will be armed and dangerous.
India, a consumer of about 40% of annual production stopped buying because tariffs placed by gov’t to discourage. They have an inflation problem and currency has been fleeing for something more durable.
Other than that, production and new mines will taper off due to these low prices, supply and demand will intersect somewhere and take off again.
This could go on for a long time, so don’t hold your breath. Don’t underestimate the wiles of the elite who run the money. They control the game and make the rules. As Kaimu posted yesterday, everyone who could rebel is getting a payoff. Hunger games.
Forget about it for today, turn on the tube and enjoy some NFL while the meal is cooking. Drink a lot. Have a great day and a great long weekend.
Makes about as much sense as anything else.
DeleteI own a small company that does drilling for mining companies called Cabo (CBE in Vancouver) and they released results today showing their revenues down by half "due to reduced demand for drilling in North America, as a result of projects being scaled back, delayed or terminated."
DeleteSo the miners are cutting backs, mainly on gold projects (their copper projects were hanging in pretty well). When this hits actual supply, who knows as gold output is projected to rise next year as projects come onstream, but in typical commodity fashion, their overinvested when times were good and now they are paying for that.
I always thought China bought UST's in order to maintain their currency peg.
DeleteSpin the platter for Paulson.
ReplyDeleteThere's a man who leads a life of danger
To everyone he meets, he stays a stranger
With every move he makes
Another chance he takes
Odds are he won't live to see tomorrow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo3Wqf86N4w
'The Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX -6.2%) plunges to a fresh five-year low thanks to the newest PMI manufacturing data, which climbed to the highest reading since 2011; BTIG analyst Dan Greenhaus calls the data "stunning,” and bad for precious metals.
'Comex gold dropped $28.50, or 2.3%, to settle at $1,221.90 for its lowest close since July; the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is down 2.5% to kick off December’s trading.'
Now we're back to WWI.
Deletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Birinyi, Sonders, & Rukeyser Celebrate The "Magical Stock Market Environment" In 1999
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-02/birinyi-sonders-rukeyser-celebrate-magical-stock-market-environment-1999
Ah yes it seems like yesterday.
Ruykeyser invited us all into his parlor every Friday night.
Deletehttp://www.nursery-songs.com/song_pages/song_17.htm
Talk about throwing stones at glass houses. What is zero hedges record on apocalypse calls?
DeleteTOF, I just posted because you are a Birinyi fan and a young Sonders is devilish.
DeleteBirinyi makes good calls but he generally goes over the falls and hangs on too long and as far as I'm concerned you can put Acampora in that camp. I watched these guys for thirty years and use to subscribe to Biriyni mini-institutional research.
Nobody can walk on water but Jesus. Again just thought you would enjoy the guys and girls when they were younger. Boy I wish I were younger again, but alas time waits for no one. What's this a liitle red on the SP?
T3d - Yeah I know...I just think it's funny that Zero Hedge plays holier than thou. Anyone that took their articles to heart is broke. At least with bulls eventually your calls are right. Might just take 14 years :)
DeleteCP - CAMT and every single other Israeli stock has been going sky high for a few weeks. Don't know why. Maybe just catchup?
ReplyDeleteCould be progress on the Iranian issues?
DeleteGood example of how people make the mistake of looking backwards at sentiment from the previous peak as opposed to forwards rfom the previous trough:
ReplyDeletehttp://covestor.tumblr.com/post/68783146637/does-frothy-bullish-sentiment-mean-a-market-pullback-is
Notice how they highlight all the peaks in sentiment since the peak in 2007, but ignore all of the peaks in the bull run in 2004 / 2005.
We need to see high sentiment levels over a period of time before we can say they are getting extreme.
Good point on that.
DeleteThis article pretty much summarizes how I think 2014 plays out as well:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/the-end-of-the-end-of-the-world-2013-11
or here if you want to read another view on the same thing:
http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-believes-2014-is-the-year-the-age-of-crisis-really-comes-to-an-end-2013-12
Anyone agree or disagree?
It seems to me that there is still enough skepticism in the air and in the public (again I use the Univ of Mich sentiment reports more than anything) that 2014 could potentially be a mini version of 2013. I think we'll get a 9.0 to 9.9% pullback at some point but the odds are decent we could finish up 15%+. I don't think everyone is convinced that the end of the world is off the table just yet. I still think people view the Fed taper, China's property bubble, and the bond bubble as things that could bring the market to its knees. When we pass through the 1st and third one's unscathed then I think we will have a meaningful pullback.
DeleteObviously things could change on a dime and our opinions aren't worth anything when it comes to the overall market.
The other thing is we haven't seen a sub 10 VIX print. I think that's coming.
DeleteI agree it's near the end of the end of the world, and emerging markets are entering a growth spurt as yak farmers discover refrigerators, televisions, toilets and all the other things the developed world is despised for?
DeletePersonally it is hard for me to see how they can remove QE w/o market faltering. Forecasts are nice but anything can come out of left field and certainly does in individual stocks. YRCW is a prime example of a WTF if you were on the wrong side.
ReplyDeleteMe, I try to take it day by day, but as we all know we need to find our own style along with its limitations, all styles have them. Certainly 2013 was a great year to hold SP. All we can do is place our bets and react to circumstances as we see fit.
Bitcoins - Wondering if this is the vehicle Chinese companies are utilizing to arrange shareholder dividend payments?
ReplyDeleteIsraeli Stocks - Could be progress on Iranian issues are a positive for Israeli stocks?
ReplyDeleteyeah good call. didn't think of that.
DeleteBrazil Economic Watch: GDP contracts 0.5% in 3Q
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index up again today...over 1,900.
ReplyDeleteYRCW- 30% dilution coming up.
ReplyDelete7.50 would have been a nice shot if you were quick. There's actually an interesting SA article the other day.
Delete3 Million shares would only be about 15% dilution from what I remember. I think diluted shares were 21 million including the convertibles.
DeleteHonestly I never count convertibles in these type of calculations. If they actually convert, then they convert. BTW, have you ever actually figured out a way to REALLY figure out how many converts sit out there on ANY stock? Same thing for warrants.
Deleteyeah you have to read through the 10q and 10k they usually spell it out, although it's not always that clear. there were some issues with doing a straight calc on the YRCW converts from what i remember. i know it took me a little while to understand what was going on because i kept looking at the changes in the footnotes on the financials and comparing it with the shares outstanding and it wasn't matching up exactly. that's when i realized there was something i was missing with up front payments i think...cant' remember exactly.
DeleteI added a little GNK at $2.50. Couldn't help myself. 3% position. I figure if all goes right it could be a 50% position in 2 years. If not then it's a zero.
ReplyDeleteThe World Until Yesterday (pre-QE taper)
ReplyDeleteOpening Goldcorp @ 21.07.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Okay, with 1000 shares traded today, I'm back to calling the recent move: "the knockout", LOL....
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Was yesterday the knockout, or is there more to come?
ReplyDeleteFBP - Also getting whacked, must be the coming taper.....
DeleteQE Taper - That's dollar positive, right? Wouldn't this event push EM currencies lower and that's where we want to load up?
ReplyDeleteBALT another pop and drop. Can't say I'm surprised
ReplyDeleteAdded more at $4.83.
DeleteStill in the triangle, any bottom side breach could be false...
Deleteselloff is getting pretty nasty.
ReplyDeleteI'm viewing it as another buying/reload opportunity, wish I knew how far it goes. What's the motivation, lackluster holiday sales?
DeleteAlright, going out for yard work, it's fairly decent here today, about 50*F(10*C) Hold her down for me, Luke
ReplyDeleteCORN - Has this one bottomed?
ReplyDelete"Symbol: CORN - "This security is currently blocked and unavailable for trading. For information, please contact us at 1.877.653"
DeleteWTF, why does this broker do this sh*t?
KB - Wonder if this one can retest $34? It's a lot to ask for but that would make for a comfortable entry. Kinda hard to believe considering Iran has capitulated then North Korea should be next, along with China FINALLY opening up maybe bitcoin dollars/cents days are numbered?
ReplyDeleteWho knows.....
World's biggest bridge being built between China and North Korea. Wonder how many North Koreans will be trying to escape?
DeleteI learn something everyday! Reminds me of Tijuana, but on a grander scale... Wonder if NK plans to invade?
DeleteLong SPY for a day trade. $179.2
ReplyDeleteSold $179.58
DeleteAtta Boy.
DeleteRBY is getting vertical.
ReplyDeleteRound trip to $0.7?
DeleteThat's the logical spot.
DeleteSounds like there's no hope GG might buy them out?
DeleteI'm a holder. I'm not a happy camper.
Delete2nd- GG..pretty interesting level all the way back 10 years.
ReplyDeleteNo doubt it is a good one if gold holds and even bounces a bit.
DeleteCP, don't know about other currencies, but the Canadian Dollar is getting crushed by the US$ the last few weeks.
ReplyDeleteI think it's more the situation that the C$ was, and still slightly is, overvalued relative to the US$ because people were worried about the US money printing. Now people see the US as moving away from easy money policy, so Canada's strong fiscal position is becoming less important.
Right, I was trying to make sense of this inclusive of EM dollar pegs, which throws a big monkey wrench into the works. Canadian Dollar is probably not pegged so the mechanism is more transparent.
DeleteUnbelievably hard road for PM miners considering gold remains over $1200 and they're bumping 10yr lows, where would miners be if gold never ran? None of this is linear of course but might this imply gold retraces half a decade or more of gains? Also consider the great UST bubble could potentially be over, rates that don't compensate inflation might be a reason to hold gold (disinflation?) and now disinflation has run it's course, bond buyers are demanding higher compensation, seems like it could suck the wind out of PM's sails.
Short SPY at $179.6 for a trade in case the 50% retracement failure holds. (i.e., the bounce from today's bottom didn't recover 50% of the drop)
ReplyDeleteMy thinking on the shipping stocks is there is a possibility that they go up even if the market falters. Initially they too will falter but I think there's a chance that the baltic dry index continues a longer term rally moreso because the supply of ships has contracted enough to bring it below demand for the first time in a while...and that alone will have a bigger impact on the index than a market pullback would. if you think of it in reverse...the index collapsed well after the market bottomed in October 2011 so even though the market rallied a lot, it had no impact on the baltic dry index. this tells me the index is all about supply.
ReplyDeleteWith all of this being said, though, I'm open to the possibility that the shippers do poorly in a market pullback. As such I don't want to be adding on strength. That's partly why I've been looking to add only on weakness because you never know what will happen with the overall market.
DeleteRight now I'm sticking with my position we need an overall market pull back to create a safer entry.
DeleteThen again, I'm unusually risk reverse right now.
DeleteYeah I think a 2.5 to 3.5% pullback is likely. Closed my SPY short but will look to open if we close near flat for a move down to 1770ish
DeleteIs risk reverse risk tolerant?
DeleteI think we have one more dump down day regardless...looking for a 1.5% down day for a short term bottom. I'll prolly be getting back into SPY short either way.
Deletethinking: 1814 > 1770ish > 1820 > 1745 over the next month.
DeleteThat's a pretty wide range for Dec.
DeleteOther than in really bad markets, there are always some stocks which go up, even in a down market.
DeleteIf the economy continues to grow which seems very likely, the fundamentals for shipping will improve with increased economic activity, so shipping stocks could go up, especially if markets tank because people fear rising rates due to an improving economy.
Mark - I think we get to 1820 in December or maybe 1st day or two of Jan, then sell off 4 to 5% in a week or so and that's possibly the bottom for 2014.
DeleteThis is all subject to revision over one or two cold beers.
DeleteI'd love to see PACB come in. Let's make a list...
ReplyDeletePACB
BSBR
BALT
GNK
RH...but wont happen
????
One of my favorites from a long term growth perspective is BNNY.
DeleteKWK has doubled over the past 4 months.
ReplyDeleteCheck out AKS. I think the coal stocks look really good too. What Saut said yesterday is a simple yet probably great insight.
DeleteI know, it makes me sick, too! I very nearly jumped on that one but was waiting for too long and lost interest, took it off the watch list.... I've acquired an aversion to companies that can't turn a profit.
DeleteReshorted SPY after hours. $179.7
ReplyDeletePick your targets.... Stab in the dark here....1770, or how about a quick retest of 1746, sound plausible or is 1700 more likely? Besides, Uncle Sam undoubtedly wants his cut of capital gains or not a part of the consideration?
ReplyDeleteOh, and since the website is functional, were we betting it would be delayed further or is there no correlation?
So many questions, not so many answers..... How about the rally resumes trajectory tomorrow morning and the opportunity to buy the dip was today?
How about a volume spike, will that indicate smart money jumping in?
its all possible! just find what works for you.
DeleteIDX - See yesterday's spike to $23, was that the move to try drawing sucker long in, or said another way, the breakout that shorts were looking for?
ReplyDeleteAs long as the yield curve isn't flattening, I think it's time to remain bullish. The UK yield curve has steepened recently, so has the US curve and numerous others like Australia, right?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Looks like someone dropped $640k on this one in the last 5 minutes today, bought 3000 shares.
ReplyDeleteI'll fess up. Long at $215 :)
DeleteYou can add ZGNX and HIMX to 'the list,' Mark.
ReplyDeleteI tried posting the following in real time at work, but Blogger wasn't working properly:
ReplyDelete(a) Closed TASR @ 16.14.
(b) Closed Goldcorp @ 20.92.
Both for minor losses. We're talking about a couple of chips on roulette spins while staying away from the string of sevens (out) at the craps table.
You know, it really pays to the stocks that are going up. I could have bought HIMX/ ZGNX on weakness today and made money. Instead of trying to catch a knife in the mining sector.
ReplyDeleteDitto for TASR. It was last week's story. Now it's a dead stock until the next bus comes along.
ReplyDelete1911.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
This could be a generational story. As in silver back under 15, gold under 1000. They'll refer to it as 'The CC's Last Stand,' or simply 'The Alamo.'
Maybe it's time to consider going long.
DeleteRemember when Cramer started referring to 2008/09 NDQ closes in terms of the Civil War, the War of 1812, the Revolutionary War, and the Magna Carta? It finally bottomed in the Dark Ages. The same applies to silver spot prices. It can get terrifying in the mining sector. As in $5 silver.
DeleteIt's really ironic that every 'agitator' (ie, every individual who dared think for himself and speak his mind) who got kicked off that blog ended up better off (as in 'dodged a fatal bullet').
DeleteThe word 'fatal' is not an overstatement. Many of the junior miners will never...I repeat, never...come back.
Delete1907.
DeleteZero comments. Not even an 'in your face' wisecrack from the peanut gallery.
DeleteI was taking a break....
DeleteGood one: "It finally bottomed in the Dark Ages."
I recall being told not to listen to Cramer and I didn't, which was probably a mistake.
Silver went from $50 to $5 in the 1980's. It's a by-product metal, so supply is not as sensitive to price as others like gold and copper or even zinc which are more the primary metals. It's kind of like natural gas which is often produced as a byproduct of other energy products and dumped onto the market regardless of price and you see how that has done the last few years.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteWhen's the next FED statement, we might find some strength near that day?
ReplyDeleteLook at these two charts:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.com/finance?q=SHA%3A000001&ei=o6WeUqCcAbHr0QG1vAE
https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXHANGSENG%3AHSI&ei=o6WeUqCcAbHr0QG1vAE
Looks very bullish to me.
Toss this one in:
https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXBOM%3ASENSEX&ei=o6WeUqCcAbHr0QG1vAE
These are the two largest emerging economies...on the verge of breaking out.
Okay, what are the shorts up to and what do they mean by "Perhaps the stock that have outperformed during the rally will underperform during the collapse."? Is this "outperformance" from a short or long perspective? I don't guess it's safe to say the strongest stocks will fall the most.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-hedge-fund-short-positions-2013-11?op=1
EXTR - Okay, so what's up with this one, I'm hearing it's a good one.
ReplyDeleteEWZ - Brazil raised rates, would have expected a positive reaction on the ETF.. hmm...
ReplyDeleteBDI up another 3.5% to 1,994.
ReplyDeleteSeems to be helping.
Deleteany higher than this and i think it's going to be hard for the market to ignore some of these highly levered shippers.
DeleteI just looked at that GNK chart the first time in a long time and WOW! It's really tempting.
DeleteFull disclosure...I sold the bounce in GNK at $2.59. I'm looking to add back under $2.5
Delete1,770ish is in sight. I'm looking for a bounce around there to marginal new highs, then a 4 to 5% drop.
ReplyDeletePEIX - Going to $25, maybe?
ReplyDeleteClassic shakeout on that one. Unreal.
DeleteThe pinball machine OCLS is back in play.
ReplyDeleteNatty Gas over $4 now. absolutely perfect example of traders getting bored and bailing before a mammoth move higher. Those guys are probably just starting to warm up to it, which means it goes to $5. We've seen it all before with so many other stocks. RAD, NOK, etc etc. If you have a firm belief that the stock/sector is going higher over the longer term all you have to do is keep these examples in mind and remember that patience will win out eventually. The big boys have lots of money but they have shareholders to answer to. We can use that to our advantage. This is all just a big game after all.
ReplyDeleteAdded BALT at $4.86
ReplyDeleteZGNX looks awesome. Hope you guys are all holding it still.
ReplyDeleteWhen I look at the market action this morning, the opening lines of Kipling's 'If' crosses my mind.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason, I'm just not seeing anything worth bidding on right now.
DeleteLooks like a classic short squeeze to me. VIX was nearing 15 which is not exactly incredibly low, especially when taking into account being near all time highs. Whatever those investor manager sentiment polls are saying, the Univ of Mich consumer sentiment report and the VIX suggest that the public isn't bullish and traders are hedging, respectively. Near term, yeah we probably will have some choppiness but the longer term sentiment pictures don't suggest euphoria.
DeleteCP - Another one in the same space as PEIX is REGI. Fundamentals are much stronger...probably less upside but also less downside. They both got beat downs from the EPA proposed rulings but those are probably buying opps instead of selling ones.
ReplyDeleteYeah, if they've hedged corn at these prices(bottom) they might make some money?
DeleteMEOH rolled over a couple weeks ago, wonder if it's indicative of rising natty prices?
ReplyDeleteBrazil Economic Watch: Upside surprise in October IP "Industrial production increases 0.6% mom and 0.9% yoy in October. Year-to-date growth at 1.6%. Capital goods production continues to surprise on the upside (18.8% yoy). Durable goods continue to disappoint (-3.2% yoy). With the upside surprise in October IP, we expect this quarter numbers to improve versus 3Q sluggish results."
ReplyDeletePLUG - An old worn-out horse?.
ReplyDeleteHoly shit. I almost posted about this two days ago. I was watching the trading in it because a guy I know has a big position in it and I check it from time to time. On Monday there was someone selling two blocks of 2M and 1M shares and there were gobbled up quickly. No wonder...
DeleteAnother one I've been following is BLDP. Same space.
DeleteThat guy you know is a great horse trader! :)
DeleteNice bull flag formation last month.
DeleteBSBR - Last chance for low $6 (jinx!)...
ReplyDeleteSame for IDX and EWZ, last chance to get in! (jinx!)
DeleteGGN - Look at that volume......
ReplyDeleteTwo separate runs from $11 to sub $9 in less than 6 months, a 22% swing in less than 6 months seems, well, nearly as insulting as 10yr lows for PM miners while the underlying remains double that of pre-crisis levels.
DeleteReminds me of oil selling at $35, and how ridiculous that price was, or $0.25 gasoline forecasts as if the sky had fallen (it hadn't).
Stinky rotten turkey sandwiches for the unemployed crowd at the expense of the savers, nobody actually goes to jail.
Great post on the perspective of longer term holdings. I think BB is one of the only ones to do this here...most of us are looking for the quick buck. Of course you never know how it will pan out. I think there are two interesting things about this:
ReplyDelete(1) Huge winners can lay dormant for a long period of time.
(2) Averaging down isn't always a losing strategy, despite what all of the traders say. Then again, I guess that's the difference between being a trader and a longer term investor.
http://thisisbigger.com/2013/09/19/left-20-million-table/
I would certainly average down if my conviction (based on real, not imaginary ghost story knowledge) was firm.
DeleteBack in GNK $2.49
ReplyDeletePRMW is another one I've been following for a while. Damn I can't believe I didn't hop in this one - I was close at $1.7 and at $2.4. Bummer. Valuation is good based on free cash flow (they're doing around $5 Million run rate and growing vs $70 Million mkt cap). I know they supply water to Lowe's customers which is a huge distribution network. Its a low margin business (25%ish gross margins) but lucrative if the distribution network is in place.
ReplyDeleteOh, this one looks like the vending machines that refill your water container at places like Wal-Mart.
DeleteYep that's the one. Good repeat business if you can make a profit in it.
DeleteCARA 100 - LOL, Such an accomplishment. Try naming 100 quality companies that haven't moved with the market.
ReplyDeleteShort squeeze indeed. Think I'll hold on to my SPY short for a bit longer. We need a capitulation day, down 1%+
ReplyDeleteMerely a tryptophan belch, sleep well and don't let it ruffle your tail feathers! :)
DeleteREFR is another one I've been watching closely. They do the smart glass included in the Mercedes Benz S-Class. Here's more info:
ReplyDelete"The all-new Mercedes-Benz S-Class is once again the benchmark in the premium luxury segment, offering the MAGIC SKY CONTROL panoramic glass roof as an option to customers during the second half of 2014. The MAGIC SKY CONTROL feature uses patented SPD-SmartGlass technology developed by Research Frontiers Inc. (Nasdaq:REFR) to turn the roof transparent by electrically aligning tiny particles within its glass. With the touch of a button, drivers and passengers can instantly change the tint of their roof to help keep out harsh sunlight and heat, and create an open-air feeling even when the sunroof is closed. Glass or plastic using Research Frontiers' patented SPD-SmartGlass technology effectively blocks UV and infrared rays in either mode, helping keep the cabin cooler, and protecting passengers and interiors.
The all-new Mercedes-Benz S-Class is the third large-scale serial production vehicle to offer MAGIC SKY CONTROL using SPD-Smart technology. In January 2011 , Daimler introduced the new Mercedes-Benz SLK as the first car ever to offer this innovative feature, and in December of 2011 Daimler followed up with MAGIC SKY CONTROL on the new Mercedes-Benz SL roadster. In addition to the all-new S-Class sedan, several variants of the S-Class are planned for release over the next few years."
Oh yeah, I agree, that is a cool technology. I bet Corning and PPG would like to have this technology (They don't already?), GM could install it in a spark for about $5 additional materials and labor cost then charge $2k, like Mercedes, for a car that shows rust-through rot within in two years if you ever drive your $50k+ vehicle in salt. Land Rovers are one of the worst examples, despite their aluminum body panels.
DeleteYeah I was wondering that too. Why wouldn't one of these big car companies just buy them out and offer it in their cars?
DeleteBALT - Here's the thing, it's my understanding China loads up on commodities like ore, grain, soy beans, corn, etc just prior to their new year shutdown and I'm not sure if those transportation contracts are making the dry-bulk container business shine temporarily or if the momentum will continue. I tend to want to believe it's bound for continuation but I'm unsure b/c for all I know China could be building their own fleet of vessels as we speak, they have the capability and projects like that create employment in an Asian country where the priority is everyone has employment, even if it's low payed cutting bait or shuffling paper..
ReplyDeleteThe BDI peaked in late October to mid Nov in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. The action this year seems different. This could be why the market isn't buying into the BDI move. We'll see.
DeleteGood point, and Europe is most likely on the mend as well as other developing nations should be entering growth mode, lots of stars appear to be lining up, throw Iran into the mix, what else can I add, Syria prhaps, Egypt, and we very well could be on the verge of an unprecedented growth spurt if just a few more cosmic factors were to align and actually prove out.
DeleteIt could happen, the possibility shouldn't be discounted IMO.
Notice gold rebounds (however feeble) on a day when disinflation threatens.
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteRe holding stock for longer terms:
1. Obviously fundamentals become more important
2. It's important to know where/why you want to sell, otherwise, you'll often be early or late
3. The best time to buy is when a stock is in a long base and basically being ignored. I find for stocks like this, the best approach is often to start buying small and then average down on weakness, giving you the chance to lower your overall cost. They often move up out of the base for no obvious reason, so getting is cheap and waiting is often my approach.
There is a some talk these days that, due to technology, people are less patient than they used to be and that too many traders are chasing the quick win these days, giving more opportunities to people who are willing to hold longer - makes sense to me.
I agree completely with everything you said. I have found more success in my own trading waiting until after a defined bottom and not trying to catch the bottom. There is almost always a sharp pullback after the bottom is in that will scare the crap out of 95% of the people in the stock. This is the exact setup I saw in the dry bulk shippers recently and am seeing in the coal stocks currently. I also see this setup in a lot of small cap China stocks.
DeleteSuch reasonable and clear thinking, my impulse is to attempt inserting a reference to Murphy's law in there somewhere. :)
DeleteLooking back, if I had it all over to do again, I would do two baskets.
DeleteLong-tern and Short-term
As we all know, trading generally will take us out before multi baggers have time to develop.
Anyone holding/buying ENPH? RSI_EMA daily readings are oversold and the weekly readings are almost at a buy.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Still not showing a defined bottomed in my opinion. I'd like to see one higher high on the weekly chart first.
DATE - this is one that I think will do well regardless of the overall market. 1 Billion people need to find love somehow. Why not through the most popular site in their country? It pays a 3 to 4% dividend as well and their policy is to maintain the annual dividend at around 50 to 65% non-GAAP EPS.
Good stuff on the public's investments:
ReplyDeletehttp://schaefferstradingfloor.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/401k-stats.png
http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Gallup-Poll-Stats1.png
Looks like today could be that 1.0 to 1.5% down day that I think clears out some longs and makes for a short term bottom. I think the setup is 1,770 > 1,820 > 1,740 still. We'll see.
ReplyDeleteI think we need to see a 15% or so one day move up in VIX. Could be today.
DeleteCertainly doesn't take long for indexes to shed weight, for sure. Noticed last night most global markets ended down and the only fundamental phenomenon I can hang my hat on is QE Taper, is that sad or what?
DeleteOr, could be lackluster sales figures, forgot about that one:
Delete"Target Corp.: Downgrade to Underperform on secular risks"
NUAN - Of course this pig would be green today, looks like a nice bear flag to me.
ReplyDeleteEXTR - Looks like bull flag, huh?
ReplyDeleteIs there anything we can put on our trading screen that follows the VIX?
ReplyDeletehuh? VIX works for me. are you still using that crap Schwab service?
DeleteI forgot. I need to use $VIX.
DeleteKOG, been watching this for years. I think it is safe to say the bottom is in and the chart point here looks decent for an entry off pullback.
ReplyDeletefwiw
TD Securities maintained a Reduce rating on Thompson Creek Metals (NYSE: TC) with a price target of C$0.50. Analyst Daniel Earle believes long-term solvency is a major issue.
ReplyDelete"We conclude that the company’s balance sheet would be strained in the event of a 'weak' ramp up and soft metal prices, approximately 10% lower on key parameters. With a 'bad' ramp up and even lower metal prices, we could see the company pressured to refinance next year," said Earle.
"Whatever the ramp up, we believe that the company’s long-term solvency is a major issue. Based on our forecasts, we expect that the company will not be able to generate sufficient cash to repay approximately $1bln in debt maturities between 2017 and 2019, assuming $1,300/oz Au and $3.00/lb Cu. We estimate that the company would need a copper price of approximately $4.00/lb beginning in F2014 to meet all of its debt obligations and avoid a funding deficit."
There was an Ruters interview with the TC CEO that is interesting yesterday, but I can't find the link.
DeleteCP- What was the latest Moly prices GMO was using in it's analysis?
I thought TC was a MOLY play? For some reason I seem to recall(can't remember for sure) GMO's cost of $7.50 in their forecast to produce, might be lower though like $5.50ish(big difference)...
Delete20-day MA is 1786.86
ReplyDeleteBEAT.
ReplyDeleteYikes...that's NOT a dip I'd like to buy, fundamentally and technically.
DeleteActually the impact on their biz doesn't seem too small. I like that they gave the #'s. I don't know this company well. Maybe it is a good dip to buy.
DeleteI've kinda looked at it before. Might try tonight.
DeletePCG at an interesting level.
ReplyDeleteAny of you guys catch the Warriors game last night?
ReplyDeleteno man. I can't get into the NBA at all anymore. Overpaid crybabies. March madness is cool.
DeleteI was the same way for the past 10-15 years, but started watching the Warriors last year mainly because Curry is so feaking good. They actually play 'real' basketball. Almost no isloation crap. Pretty amazing comeback last night.
DeleteDude, BEAT looks EXACTLY like MITK on it's run from 3-12. Take a look.
Yeah could be a good buy again for a move back up to $12. Did you get any GNK / BALT? GNK was nuts today.
DeleteI stopped watching when Jordan retired. That whole charade with Lebron choosing Miami several years ago was pathetic and epitomized to me what the guys in the NBA are like. Jordan / Bird / etc would have never done something like that.
DeleteI agree, but look how close the Warriors came to making the finals last year. All built through the draft and small trades. Only 'real' star is Curry and he's never made the all-star team. Dude might be the best pure shooter I've ever seem.
DeleteBTW, BEATS earnings and projections match MITK's back then at the same price levels. Spooky.
Nice recovery in the markets this afternoon. Looks like we will finish in the green. Who would have thought?
ReplyDeletePlease don't make me do a new post.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know what is wrong with GFI......wasn't this a... [#122114]
ReplyDeleteBy: Milesquare (237 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
December 4, 2013 at 3:56 pm
Anyone know what is wrong with GFI……wasn’t this a leader at one point?
Craig and I used to buy GFI (at least, I think it was GFI) on any premarket weakness, then sell for a profit during the normal session. It worked most of the time.
DeleteThe bottom may be in for precious metals and miners... [#122111]
ReplyDeleteBy: sps50trader (39 comments) Log in to Reply Go to top ↑
December 4, 2013 at 12:55 pm
The bottom may be in for precious metals and miners today… GLD, GDX, GDXJ, SLV, and CEF all formed major swing lows today and the outlook looks good.
But what happened to GGGG?
Deletenew post
ReplyDelete