Recalling this exchange from the Cara blog December 13, 2010:
http://www.billcara.com/cara-community/bill-caras-blog-for-dec-13-2010-see-post-close-report/
2nd, I would suggest you look at Hussmans returns over the... [#75937]
By: pauldkk (92 comments) Go to top ↑
December 13, 2010 at 8:18 pm
2nd,
I would suggest you look at Hussmans returns over the last 10 years. Anyone can make money in fast moving upward markets. providing consistant returns and not losing money is even more difficult. Based on his past returns I would take heed with his warnings. I read him every week and found him to be spot on especially in his fixed income fund. “The market has and will continue to punish ‘intelligence,’ but it also has a way of rewarding intelligence in a big way when least expected.” Nice try, I may be able to beat tiger woods on one hole, But I would be foolish to think I can beat him through 18. You may have had a few good months or years but try putting together 10 with a sound performance record. I have seen funds like the CGM focus fund lose 5 years of great returns in 6 months. No offense but your [sic] no John Hussman.
No offense but you're no John Hussman. pauldkk- Agreed!... [#75940]
By: 2nd_ave (5605 comments) Go to top ↑
December 13, 2010 at 8:42 pm
No offense but you’re no John Hussman.
pauldkk- Agreed! Alright. I’ve offed the AA/BAC/CSCO/GE/(what’s up with)INTC/MSFT/XOM, and will be offing the OAKBX at the close.
‘Nuff said.
Closing numbers are out for OAKBX. The portfolio is up +4%... [#75952]
By: 2nd_ave (5605 comments) Go to top ↑
December 13, 2010 at 11:42 pm
Closing numbers are out for OAKBX. The portfolio is up +4% since mid-November, and +12% since the end of August 31 (respectively the last two times I was holding 100% cash). Not saying if either number is good or bad, but I’m happy with them. Nor am I saying it had more to do with skill than luck. My only goal is/(has always been) to navigate the portfolio to a total that will permit a comfortable retirement. So once again I’m switching off the auto-pilot and back to worrying about reentry points.
No way would I have compared myself to the great John Hussman in December 2010.
ReplyDeleteAnd no ----ing way would I compare myself to John Hussman today.
DeleteWhich probably means this post marks the bottom for HSGFX.
Deleteha. wow. great dialogue. this type of thinking is still prevalent in my opinion:
Delete"However, my bull disbelief is based on known fraud and corruption wildly prevalent in the markets. Bankers changing accounting rules and FED breaking the rules of the game keep me cautious."
I curious as to what jimddavis' thoughts are now. I think it would be a good litmus test.
IBN - A bank operating in India. "10-Jan-14 12:36AM India's economy is out of the woods: ICICI CEO
ReplyDeleteWonder if Hussman agrees?
JJC - Looks like the big volume Thursday got it right, followed up with Friday's ultra light volume.
ReplyDeleteLook what this chart did Friday, OMG???
http://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVY00&name=BLS%20Raw%20Industrials&domain=crb&display_ice=1&cancelstudy=&type=LINE&studies=SMA%2813%29;&a=W
DBC - Friday volume was up, risk takers stepping up?
ReplyDeleteNM - This chart reminds me of the gold top, and the AAPL top, for that matter. Except it's neither of these, is it?
ReplyDeleteAGCO - A kick in the pants in the volume department as well.
PCP - I think it's too early to say this chart has broken down, agreed?
Is the future that bright, are those rose colored shades you're wearing? Are we witnessing the pullback that never materialized?
My brother in law was laid off month before last and his former company survives to this day in his absence, wonder if his company found a cheaper alternative?
ReplyDelete"2014 CRISIS" SPECIAL REPORT" Jesse Stine
ReplyDeleteIs the dollar about to experience a Black Swan event?
Would US T' rates skyrocket or collapse?
DeleteThe thing is, what about the US reaching energy independence, wouldn't that tip the export deficit scales? Or, has all the world found their own energy reserves using the same technology?
Or all global currencies about to take a simultaneous swan(overstatement) dive?
wow interesting...i was actually looking at currency and gold/silver charts yesterday and noticing some of the same things Jesse is pointing out. it sure as shit looks like gold/silver may have bottomed shorter/medium term and i think the weak jobs report may be the catalyst to get this going. on the dollar chart i was noticing that things appear to be turning down for it again and this has coincided with fairly sharp moves up in equities in the short term.
Delete"on the dollar chart i was noticing that things appear to be turning down for it again"
DeleteNot sure if a falling dollar can be credited for pushing the markets higher since S&P 666 but regardless, we desperately need to crank up the bearish sentiment thumbscrews, right? I notice this same tactic has worked tremendously all the way from S&P 666:
"Treasury issue One Trillion Dollars in first 6 weeks of 2014 | Drudge ...
www.drudge.com/news/.../treasury-issue-one-trillion-dollars-first"
CP - Take a look at this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CSIQ+Interactive#symbol=csiq;range=20120521,20130520;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Looks parabolic right? Zoom it out to today.
I think NM looks similar.
CSIQ looks like a four year cup, "Zoom it out to today." I'm not sure if I'm following you, really.
DeleteNot sure what's going on with NM, a big cup? Notice DRYS volume has been killer high for 5 years running, in comparison to the previous historical record. NM's has been high for 7 years.
Does this sound bullish or bearish?:
"in an interview with CNBC television, World Trade Organization Director-General Roberto Azevedo outlined that the WTO would downgrade world trade growth estimates for 2013 from 3% to 2.5%. In addition, 2014 estimates would be cut from 5% to 4.5%."
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/01/10/protectionism-is-on-the-rise-and-coming-to-a-stock.aspx
Throw me a bone on this, I'm not getting what you're saying. Is your point that NM has defined the first peak of it's left shoulder and now needs to develop a head?
DeleteHey cp my main point is that while nm looks like it went parabolic much like gld or aapl did at one point I think you have to look at the bigger picture. It's still 50% off all time highs. I used csiq as an example because it went from $2 to $10 and looked parabolic in the chart I sent. It then pulled back to $8 before going to $37.
DeleteI just realized maybe the link didn't cut off the period I meant to show. I meant to show the 8 months or so of csiq from $2 to a near term high then a pullback and then to $10 because it really did look like a parabolic move that would end badly. And for a week or teo
Delete...and for a week or two it did end badly. In early June it went from 10.6 down to 8.2 and I bet a lot of people threw in the towel at 8 just before it went up almost 400% higher
DeleteSorry last thing. Take a look at the volume in the shippers. Massive volume is coming into these on a regular basis. Back in June I recall when I was watching these that BALT had days of 50k shares. Now it averages 30 times that. That's impressive and to me a huge sign that institutions are coming into it. That is typically a good sign (obviously nothing is foolproof). Look at there similarities in some of the bigger winners over the past year or so. Take a close look at their volume
DeleteOkay, that's what I thought you were pointing out. I think this is the same(similar?) argument Brandt has been making in the case of CPST and EXTR.
DeleteWay cool bro.
ReplyDeleteCSIQ - Connects 10MW solar complex to the state grid
ReplyDeleteCPST - Receives 6.4MW order for Marcellus Shale development.
Is it possible the EPA won't let them vent/flair their methane into the atmosphere so they may as well use it to spin generators, what are these guys thinking, where are GE and UTX on this?
CXO - Does this chart deserve a look, possibly an upside continuation chart formation that if gaps up soon, would confirm?
ReplyDeletePXD - A polar vortex phenon? We'll be basking in 50*F highs here this week, might have to break out my rose colored shades while venturing outdoors to bask in the sun.
What if these guys discover even more oil and are forced to increase their reserve estimates?
CSCO - Reports loss of sales due to governmental protectionism in emerging markets. Does this chart look like it's breaking down as a result? It does currently have that same old gap down followed by more of the same feeling we witnessed a few years back.
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteNM's chart could also be similar to gold in 2006 when it ran up to $700 (or around there). The real question is whether the real top is in for the shippers or if this is just a bump in the road. I think with the economy growing and supply being restricted, it is more like we are at $700 gold sufferring through a pullback than peaking at $1,900 gold.
BB, That would be consistent with what I think I see in the chart as well. I feel more comfortable when the fundamentals are in confirmation, charts always seem to have numerous possible interpretations, always at an inflection point.
DeleteAwesome thinking on global markets and currencies in 2014, jesse! You've given me plenty of food for thought. To begin with, I will be adding currencies as an alternative to 'stocks and bonds.'
ReplyDeleteVery interesting indeed. I was going to mention to you on Thursday I believe how it was indeed looking more and more like you did buy the bottom when you traded silver that one day. I just didn't want to open up that wound
DeleteNFLX flick of the week> Narc. Real downer, though. That's the Detroit I remember.
ReplyDeleteFrog J. Michigan, The Michigan Rag... Hello Ma' Baby!......
DeleteTTM - "China growth propels Jaguar Land Rover to record sales
ReplyDeleteJaguar Land Rover last year sold more vehicles than ever before, helped by strong growth in the crucial Chinese market and a string of new launches. The carmaker, which was bought by India's Tata Motors .."
CP- Your comment about the EPA and CPST is interesting.
ReplyDeleteSo, if emerging market currencies go on a tear, then what about all those PM shops dotting the landscape set up on every street corner of the developing world, will all that metal some flooding back out from it's hiding places and back into the market? I seem to recall that was Jesse's suspicion about a year ago?
ReplyDeleteBCH Hmm, wonder what happened.
ReplyDeleteCH - Has been kickin' butt.
How's it looking out there, I see Japan gave back some gains, could just be a fake move?
ReplyDeleteBDI - Down again?
ReplyDeleteInteresting spot for BLMN here on the 200ema. Lots of talk about the decline in casual dining lately.
ReplyDeleteRH- Couple of retail misses this am.
ReplyDeleteAn RH add just popped up on my screen!, LOL.
DeleteFord's new F150 coming with all-aluminum body in the US to meet fuel standards.
ReplyDeleteBodes well for AA if this does well as other cars would follow suit.
NOR is testing the 20 SMA, a TON of debt but they're using the natty process in their smelting.
DeleteCPST - I guess the oilfield production companies could become utilities and sell electricity (made using gas turbines) back to local towns and cities?
ReplyDeleteENPH - This one's might soon be testing $8.20
ReplyDeleteCXO - Morning buyers getting whacked again.
ReplyDelete09-Dec-13 Reiterated Deutsche Bank Buy $130 → $119
DeleteSilverado - Truck of the year at autoshow.
ReplyDeleteUgly action today...in both the market and in the baltic dry index. if this was easy we'd all be sipping martinis on our own island.
ReplyDeleteYep, quite right! :)
DeleteThis is the craziest party there could ever be, don't turn on the lights 'cause I don't wanna see. (Mama told me not to come!)
DeleteCXO - Accelerating toward destination of $83
ReplyDeleteNorth Korea - The positive slant might be the kid manages to cleanse out the old boy's club using the traditional tool set, then once gaining control negotiates an Iranian style negotiation? They want the kid out of there, why else would the old boy's club have attempted a coup?
ReplyDeleteMy buy limit order for SORL calls has not been triggered yet. But in the meantime, I noticed that GDX/GDXJ broke above December highs today, and the expected 10-year inflation broke out recently above the highs made last summer:
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=87988&category_id=0
Looks like something big is happening there.
Since I have very little money to play with, I cancelled my buy limit order for SORL calls and instead purchased just now 4 June 2014 $21 GDX calls at $2.90 each. Will sell them if GDX drops below the January low of $21.27.
CCL - So if we're really heading off a cliff then why is this one pushing $42?
ReplyDeleteThis chart doesn't seem to be indicative of inflation, although it's possible an upside reversal is in the cards at some point?:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$CRB,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
MNGA - Okay, is this puppy gonna pop again?
ReplyDeleteNice to see California's humane chicken act, finally!
ReplyDeleteBALT - Ouchie!
ReplyDelete(a) DJIA (-1%), SPX (-1.2%), NDQ (-1.6%) all selling off, with sales apparently accelerating in the afternoon session.
ReplyDelete(b) EEM (Emerging markets) -1.4%. Global markets are rarely spared when US indexes sell off (at least initially).
(c) GDX (miners) up nicely +2%.
(d) I opened a position in Goldcorp (GG) this morning @ 22.52 on an announcement they would make an unsolicited offer to acquire a Canadian mining company. The reflexive selling by investors presented an attractive entry point into what I consider ‘best of breed’ among gold miners.
(e) The $USD is down. The $CAD is up. The Yen is up +1%. No currency positions at this point.
(f) JCP is down -7% to 6.84 (the 52-low being 6.24). It may well retest the lows. I’ve made enough money on this stock, and reluctant to stop out just yet.
(a) Upon further reflection, having made enough money on dead cat bounces in JCP, I shouldn’t hesitate to clear the position. Off @ 6.74.
ReplyDelete(b) Goldcorp bouncing nicely, now @ 23.11.
MOG - I'm beginning to think this guy tried to bury us.
ReplyDeleteIBN - So far this week, the market seems to believe India's economy is emerging from the woods.
ReplyDeleteKGC - Remember when this one cratered immediately following the grand reviews published on the sister site?
ReplyDeleteRobot flipped short at 1827 from long at 1837
ReplyDelete$BDI - Fell 117, to 1395....... This number was out this morning, but I don't know where to find it early.
ReplyDelete