Chinese mills may cut rebar production, rebar prices rise. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-14/rebar-rises-amid-expectation-chinese-mills-will-cut-production.html
Sugar producers - Sugar output in India’s top producer Maharashtra fell 19% to 2.92m tons vs 3.62m the previous year. (BBG) Energy / Infrastructure India to increase nuclear power by almost six-fold in 10-yrs to 27 GW of nuclear generation capacity, compared with 4.8GW now, according to Prime Minister Singh. (BBG)
CXO - Morning buyers step up to the plate again, just like they always do. BALT - I guess buyers are catching onto the fact BDI is no longer around 2000
From what I have read the drop in rates is common this time of year. Seems like the market is banking on that for now. I'd say BALT is holding in just fine actually. Still above prior highs despite a 40% drop in BDI rates.
Yep, with emerging markets looking like they're on the upswing, are bunker fuel suppliers like INT a leading indicator in the charge? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/altor-eyes-possible-listing-ship-104437572.html
yeah i got home sunday afternoon and just spent yesterday relaxing. trying to get some work done today.
are you holding ENPH still? BALT? You see NLS? I contemplated selling some BALT last week around $6.60 so I could buy around $5.80 but I couldn't quite justify doing that for fear of missing what I think will ultimately be a move to the mid teens to $20 this year. I didn't quite expect the drop in BDI that we've seen, though, but I do still think it's just a seasonal thing as Chinese New Year means little activity.
LQMT - In my brief search for a manufacturer of ferro-fluids last summer I'd come across this one but of course was distracted by other subjects. I dunno any detail at all about this company, was just looking for ferro-fluid manufacturers and this one popped up.
CP - I can make quite a list of potential big catalysts for a much larger boom in dry bulk rates than people expect:
(1) European recovery (2) India growth re-accelerating (3) Japan returning to growth & switching away from nuclear to coal use (4) continued 5%+ growth in China (5) supply < demand (6) risk aversion by shippers and banks which should keep supply in check for a while
Back in 2007/8 when the spot rates hit 11,000+ we had a sniff of all of these factors but it seems in hindsight like the world economy was on less firm footing than it is now. What happens if we return to those spot rates or even half of them? I definitely don't think people are pricing anything remotely close to this into any of these stocks, especially the one we are invested in. Baby steps first, of course. We need to continue building a new support above old highs. The building needs a solid foundation from which to go up another story.
Consider this crazy assumption: spot rates get to 5500 (half of all time high). At this level for an entire quarter, with all of the ships on board that they currently have under agreement (and not including the 2 extra ships they just snagged yesterday), BALT would earn approximately $1.46 per quarter. At the peak these stocks trade at 7 or 8 times earnings. $1.50 x 4 x 8 = $48.
On the flip side, at current spot rates with all ships on board, they will earn $0.08 per quarter ($0.21 before depreciation, which is what they base their dividends off of). I'm not rates will return to 5,500 but there's at least a chance and that's good enough for me. And the downside seems very manageable to me.
I sure hope 5% isn't the Chinese growth rate, A higher number of ~7% (from my recollection) was called the line in the sand and anything less, "hard times" a couple years ago.
See the bump up on the open, we could've dumped some and picked it up lower. But who knew, right, the BDI only dropped 25 so today is bound to be flat to up?
I don't quite get why 5% means hard times but I was just generalizing that it looks like they should show 5%+ growth for a while. As the base gets bigger it gets harder to move it but 5% on a base of the 2nd largest economy in the world is nothing to sneeze at.
The bigger trend is toward a large swath of people in this world moving into middle class and consuming more grains, coal etc. All of which bodes very well for the dry bulk trade in the longer term. Maybe 2007 was just an appetizer for the main course.
If you like eating grains, tractors might do well also. AGCO looks like it's near an inflection point. Surely South America will grow a percentage of the crop in places like Argentina and Uruguay, I guess Southern Brazil is the farming area? Kenya is too close to the equator I guess, South Africa? The 7% figure came from a government big guy, his reason was to keep poverty in check(whatever that entails).
China reports on Jan 20th, if I understand correctly, so we maybe we rally into that and as usual, the big money gets the info the day prior, on the 19th?
I decided to buy some PEIX just to stow it away. Long at $6.16. Horrible entry point but I'm thinking it's going to go parabolic eventually. The comments from the company yesterday suggest that they're going to show a really good quarter.
Prolly going -> $25, analyst target price is $0.95, can you say lowball snowjob, the sky is falling and Europe is doomed, everyone better stick their damn heads in the sand, crawl into their bomb shelters?
It's amazing, but so many people are talking about how 2014 should be an up year as that usually happens after a great year like 2013, but in the next sentence they talk about how we should expect a good correction as we haven't had one for so long.
Makes me think something else has to happen - either a flat market for months and months, a grind higher or a fast market crash. Probably a flat market makes the most sense as people are positioned either for a correction or a strong market, so the 2 forces could kind of offset each other.
I don't think it really matters as there will be good stocks to buy regardless, but something to think about.
Today’s action is the exact reverse of Monday’s. Almost all of this week’s decisions have worked against me, and in the past it’s signaled a good time to break from trading. GG closed at 22.30. 100% cash.
(a) Recency bias. I’ve had a good run. It’s natural to think I will continue to trade well. But that’s a dangerous assumption. All traders will eventually hit a rough patch. Trading works differently for each individual, and I’ve learned when to walk away. (b) Unattractive asset prices. To be honest, there’s really nothing I see as a compelling buy right now.
There will be a hiatus in the daily trades. It may even turn out to be more of a sabbatical. There’s a time for capital gains. And there’s a time for capital preservation!
Sold the PEIX shares at $6.27. 2% in a few hours...screw it. I know its going to $20 eventually but I had these shares on margin which is something I really don't like doing.
This article argues Chinese growth will not be as robust as anticipated, from an arguably more plausible point of view than I've heard in other articles, such as "Ghost Cities = real estate crash". http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/10/23/report-aging-population-will-trim-3-off-chinas-gdp/
Whipsaw - Remembering the whipsaw action we endured in 2011, that left me sitting in the dust? It just seems more likely now that run is complete and it's the time to be short instead of long. Is it possible the market has far outperformed the economy to the upside, just as it did on the downside?
I was looking at the move in the nasdaq and man it sure does look scary in terms of parabolic...up from 3300 to 4200 over the past 7 months. That's quite a move. 27% or 49% annualized.
Think they'll be able to buy this dip with enough conviction?
ReplyDeleteFWLT- Strange hun?
ReplyDeleteTZOO- I guess that was a buying op.
ReplyDeleteShanghai Composite about to test 2000.
ReplyDeleteinteresting that the small cap index has fared pretty well in this nasty 1.64% "correction".
ReplyDeleteWhere do you follow the bdi?
DeleteSame for companies like INT, INT refuels ships.
DeleteChinese mills may cut rebar production, rebar prices rise.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-14/rebar-rises-amid-expectation-chinese-mills-will-cut-production.html
Sugar producers
ReplyDelete- Sugar output in India’s top producer Maharashtra fell 19% to 2.92m tons vs 3.62m the previous year. (BBG)
Energy / Infrastructure
India to increase nuclear power by almost six-fold in 10-yrs to 27 GW of nuclear generation capacity, compared with 4.8GW now, according to Prime Minister Singh. (BBG)
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/ten-stocks-in-focus-in-monday-morning-trade/articleshow/28775654.cms
CXO - Morning buyers step up to the plate again, just like they always do.
ReplyDeleteBALT - I guess buyers are catching onto the fact BDI is no longer around 2000
From what I have read the drop in rates is common this time of year. Seems like the market is banking on that for now. I'd say BALT is holding in just fine actually. Still above prior highs despite a 40% drop in BDI rates.
DeleteYep, with emerging markets looking like they're on the upswing, are bunker fuel suppliers like INT a leading indicator in the charge?
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/altor-eyes-possible-listing-ship-104437572.html
URG - I guess the news traveled fast.
ReplyDeleteNews on 2 POS stocks I follow. TC/ANV
ReplyDeleteSame for ISRG!!!!!!, totally missed looking at this one the past few days.
DeleteAction like this in these beaten down stocks sure makes it hard to sell anything lying around in the portfolio.
DeleteAdded to Goldcorp @ 22.75.
ReplyDeleteTOF- Home yet?
ReplyDeleteyeah i got home sunday afternoon and just spent yesterday relaxing. trying to get some work done today.
Deleteare you holding ENPH still? BALT? You see NLS? I contemplated selling some BALT last week around $6.60 so I could buy around $5.80 but I couldn't quite justify doing that for fear of missing what I think will ultimately be a move to the mid teens to $20 this year. I didn't quite expect the drop in BDI that we've seen, though, but I do still think it's just a seasonal thing as Chinese New Year means little activity.
THD - Total Harmonic Distortion - Nice move, huh?
ReplyDeleteLQMT - In my brief search for a manufacturer of ferro-fluids last summer I'd come across this one but of course was distracted by other subjects. I dunno any detail at all about this company, was just looking for ferro-fluid manufacturers and this one popped up.
ReplyDeleteCP - I can make quite a list of potential big catalysts for a much larger boom in dry bulk rates than people expect:
ReplyDelete(1) European recovery
(2) India growth re-accelerating
(3) Japan returning to growth & switching away from nuclear to coal use
(4) continued 5%+ growth in China
(5) supply < demand
(6) risk aversion by shippers and banks which should keep supply in check for a while
Back in 2007/8 when the spot rates hit 11,000+ we had a sniff of all of these factors but it seems in hindsight like the world economy was on less firm footing than it is now. What happens if we return to those spot rates or even half of them? I definitely don't think people are pricing anything remotely close to this into any of these stocks, especially the one we are invested in. Baby steps first, of course. We need to continue building a new support above old highs. The building needs a solid foundation from which to go up another story.
Consider this crazy assumption:
Deletespot rates get to 5500 (half of all time high). At this level for an entire quarter, with all of the ships on board that they currently have under agreement (and not including the 2 extra ships they just snagged yesterday), BALT would earn approximately $1.46 per quarter. At the peak these stocks trade at 7 or 8 times earnings. $1.50 x 4 x 8 = $48.
On the flip side, at current spot rates with all ships on board, they will earn $0.08 per quarter ($0.21 before depreciation, which is what they base their dividends off of). I'm not rates will return to 5,500 but there's at least a chance and that's good enough for me. And the downside seems very manageable to me.
I sure hope 5% isn't the Chinese growth rate, A higher number of ~7% (from my recollection) was called the line in the sand and anything less, "hard times" a couple years ago.
DeleteSee the bump up on the open, we could've dumped some and picked it up lower. But who knew, right, the BDI only dropped 25 so today is bound to be flat to up?
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-01/08/c_133029288.htm
DeleteI don't quite get why 5% means hard times but I was just generalizing that it looks like they should show 5%+ growth for a while. As the base gets bigger it gets harder to move it but 5% on a base of the 2nd largest economy in the world is nothing to sneeze at.
DeleteThe bigger trend is toward a large swath of people in this world moving into middle class and consuming more grains, coal etc. All of which bodes very well for the dry bulk trade in the longer term. Maybe 2007 was just an appetizer for the main course.
If you like eating grains, tractors might do well also. AGCO looks like it's near an inflection point. Surely South America will grow a percentage of the crop in places like Argentina and Uruguay, I guess Southern Brazil is the farming area? Kenya is too close to the equator I guess, South Africa?
DeleteThe 7% figure came from a government big guy, his reason was to keep poverty in check(whatever that entails).
dude - JCP!?
ReplyDeleteHigh on 11/29/13: 1,813
ReplyDeleteLow yesterday: 1,815
1395 yesterday?
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$BDI,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
sorry i was referring to the S&P
DeleteYeah BDI has been in a free fall. But at 1,400 BALT is still profitable as I mentioned above.
I sold my NM shares at $9.21 and switched them over to BALT at $5.97
ReplyDeleteChina reports on Jan 20th, if I understand correctly, so we maybe we rally into that and as usual, the big money gets the info the day prior, on the 19th?
ReplyDeletePRMW still looks awesome.
ReplyDeletePEIX is now up 160% from its lows. Wow. Anyone that had the balls of steel required to hold through that drop to $2.3 is worthy of much higher prices.
ReplyDeleteTSLA - that's one helluva turnaround.
holy shit look at IRE.
ReplyDeleteObviously Europe is collapsing, buy GOLD!!!!! :)
DeleteI decided to buy some PEIX just to stow it away. Long at $6.16. Horrible entry point but I'm thinking it's going to go parabolic eventually. The comments from the company yesterday suggest that they're going to show a really good quarter.
ReplyDeleteProlly going -> $25, analyst target price is $0.95, can you say lowball snowjob, the sky is falling and Europe is doomed, everyone better stick their damn heads in the sand, crawl into their bomb shelters?
DeleteI believe that target price is an old, pre-split target. I remember this from previously being in the stock.
DeleteREDF - Perhaps this one's worth looking at here, I dunno if it's a nova or a no-go, could be both or neither?
ReplyDeleteFMAR - This is nuts, how does this bank possibly get into so much trouble it can't recover?
ReplyDeleteIt's amazing, but so many people are talking about how 2014 should be an up year as that usually happens after a great year like 2013, but in the next sentence they talk about how we should expect a good correction as we haven't had one for so long.
ReplyDeleteMakes me think something else has to happen - either a flat market for months and months, a grind higher or a fast market crash. Probably a flat market makes the most sense as people are positioned either for a correction or a strong market, so the 2 forces could kind of offset each other.
I don't think it really matters as there will be good stocks to buy regardless, but something to think about.
Today’s action is the exact reverse of Monday’s. Almost all of this week’s decisions have worked against me, and in the past it’s signaled a good time to break from trading. GG closed at 22.30. 100% cash.
ReplyDelete(a) Recency bias. I’ve had a good run. It’s natural to think I will continue to trade well. But that’s a dangerous assumption. All traders will eventually hit a rough patch. Trading works differently for each individual, and I’ve learned when to walk away.
(b) Unattractive asset prices. To be honest, there’s really nothing I see as a compelling buy right now.
There will be a hiatus in the daily trades. It may even turn out to be more of a sabbatical. There’s a time for capital gains. And there’s a time for capital preservation!
" To be honest, there’s really nothing I see as a compelling buy right now. "
DeleteWhat assets/sectors are you looking at?
Good point, mirror image. As if it was a bear trap?
DeleteSold the PEIX shares at $6.27. 2% in a few hours...screw it. I know its going to $20 eventually but I had these shares on margin which is something I really don't like doing.
ReplyDeleteThis article argues Chinese growth will not be as robust as anticipated, from an arguably more plausible point of view than I've heard in other articles, such as "Ghost Cities = real estate crash".
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/10/23/report-aging-population-will-trim-3-off-chinas-gdp/
perhaps that's why they changed the 1 child policy?
Deletehttp://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/12/28/china-one-child-policy/4230785/
Whipsaw - Remembering the whipsaw action we endured in 2011, that left me sitting in the dust? It just seems more likely now that run is complete and it's the time to be short instead of long. Is it possible the market has far outperformed the economy to the upside, just as it did on the downside?
ReplyDeleteI was looking at the move in the nasdaq and man it sure does look scary in terms of parabolic...up from 3300 to 4200 over the past 7 months. That's quite a move. 27% or 49% annualized.
DeleteRussell 2000 is up 53% from the November 2012 lows.
DeleteOn the other hand lets look at the returns on a longer time frame:
Nasdaq since 2007 highs: 7.0% annualized
Nasdaq since 2000 highs: -1.4% annualized
Russell 2000 since 2011 highs: 11.0% annualized
Russell 2000 since 2007 highs: 4.6% annualized
ICPT has basically retraced 50% already.
ReplyDeleteActually remove "basically".
Delete