(a) The
Fed announces it will continue to taper, cutting an additional
$10b/month.
(b) Market
reaction is negative thus far, with the DJIA/SPX/NDQ all down >1%.
(c) EEM
(which initially spiked last night following a +425 basis point increase in
Turkish lending rates to 12%!), is now off -1.57%, as a loss in confidence in
the Turkish economy begins to outweigh the bold move by its central
bank.
(d) Bonds
continue to rip higher.
(e) NGas?
Up +10% to a 52-wk high. UGAZ + 30%!
(f) Gold
+ miners up.
This may a good time to review a few notes from Hussman et al:
(a) Market
rallies take place over extended periods, whereas corrections are events.
Prices that climb a wall of worry will take the elevator down.
(b) The
crowd will generally decide to sell at the same time. The exit door is narrow.
The market tends to move in the direction which punishes the majority of traders. 2014 may see both bonds + cash outperform stocks. Does that sound unlikely? So did a +40% gain in US small caps at the beginning of 2013.
The market tends to move in the direction which punishes the majority of traders. 2014 may see both bonds + cash outperform stocks. Does that sound unlikely? So did a +40% gain in US small caps at the beginning of 2013.
It's Obama's fault.
ReplyDeleteI thought we'd be calling him "Peoples Obama" by now?
DeleteLook at p. 21 on this chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://navios-mlp.irwebpage.com/NMM_Q4_2013_earnings_presentation.pdf
Clear as day: when demand > supply of ships, baltic dry index spikes higher.
P.22:
Baltic Dry Index average rate is over 3000 from 2002 to today
Baltic Dry Index avg rate is over 2000 from 1985 to today
I'm surprised there's no increase due to inflation.
NMM has a very interesting discussion in the Q&A section (if you can weed through the gibberish) about spot rates:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1977741-navios-maritime-partners-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=6&p=qanda&l=last
I'm not sure just yet I can place much faith into something that's consistently moving the wrong direction. Considering China's just beginning their new year holiday, can we assume they spooled up tons of orders today prior to heading off to the festival of lanterns?
DeleteIt's probably the strongest force in business - supply/demand and if you can identify an imbalance not recognized by the market, you will almost always make money.
DeleteTOF - take a look at slide 12 - it shows all the ships with charts expiring - there are 12 in 2014.
Also, the concall transcript is understandable, although there are a number of errors and the English is tough sometimes.. just search for "nine" and she talks about the 9 dry-ships coming up for renewal.
BSBR - Sheile Bair joined Santander's BOD, hmm.....
ReplyDeleteSeriously?
DeleteBSBR beats on earnings by 6%: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/30/santanderbrasil-results-idUKE5N0HZ01720140130
ReplyDeleteCan't find an earnings release, but found this earnings presentation.
http://www.santander.com/csgs/StaticBS?ssbinary=true&blobkey=id&blobcol=urldata&SSURIsscontext=Satellite+Server&blobheadervalue1=application%2Fpdf&blobwhere=1278698522697&SSURIsession=false&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3D569%5C455%5CBrazil_2013_EN.pdf&SSURIapptype=BlobServer&blobtable=MungoBlobs&SSURIcontainer=Default&blobheadername1=content-type&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition#satellitefragment
Will be interesting to see how the stock does today. It does seem to be trading with the market, but, in my opinion, the advantage of BSBR over EWZ is that's it's fundamentals are good and it's balance sheet strong, so can handle some bad things in the overall economy. It's earnings are also hopefully troughing, so we see earnings growth in 2014.
I think Brasil is getting tarnished with the whole "Emerging Markets are bad" thing going on now, but at some point, usually after the panic subsides, selectivity will return to the market.
Also:
DeleteSAO PAULO, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Local credit markets in Brazil are "returning to normal", with margins recovering from a decline in recent years and loan defaults receding, Jesús Zabalza, chief executive officer of Banco Santander Brasil SA said on Thursday.
Cool! I needed some good news! Interesting how this comes just as the 52wk low is tested, as if it's no coincidence.
DeleteSheila Bair, yes it's true, she joined Santander's BOD (SAN ticker), not sure if this impacts BSBR any?
2nd,
ReplyDeletein my view of the charts, most market indexes are right around support now, so I would think we should see a bottom and bounce over the next few days. If we don't get this, then we have to allow for an undercut bottom as these seem to happen frequently as well, but if we don't get the bounce by around the end of next week, I would think we are in a real correction that could last for another month or two.
But I doubt it is the start of a 20% bear market and I personally don't find it worthwhile to try and time 5% or 7% corrections as my timing is just not that good, so my plan, now anyhow, would be to add into that weakness as I still do think we get a good double-digit return year in the markets.
BDI - No update yet this morning, I see none yet,
ReplyDeleteCXO - $97.82 is today's price to beat.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index falls to 1,127 , down 21
BSBR - Okay, here comes $4.20............
ReplyDeleteExcuse me.... COME FUCKING ON!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteI guess we bought all that stock from TBTF they bought back in '09 using taxpayer money and the FED helped them pump it up, now for the big dump?
Deletewhat's that in relation to Mark?
DeleteBOIL - Oh what happened, we didn't really run out of natty gazz?
ReplyDeleteWhen international diplomacy is required, call Dennis Rodman! :)
ReplyDeleteTarget's vendor should've charged for your credit data instead of giving it away free! This is why these companies are non-profit, they don't understand they should charge for this data!
ReplyDelete1-800 Flowers (FLWS) up 5% this morning back up over my purchase price - I guess people panicked a bit yesterday between the weak markets and the headline earnings miss, but the results were actually pretty good.
ReplyDeleteNIHD - Shorts covering?
ReplyDeleteI have to wonder if this isn't playing out exactly like I mentioned a week ago (all I was doing was looking at how the January 1995 shakeout played out). Another parallel is the 1981 pullback which turned into a 25% peak to trough pullback. Both are good parallels in that they saw really strong gains over the period of a year or so.
ReplyDeleteI think today's close will say a lot. If gains hold then there's a good chance we have bottomed out.
PAL - Oh, man, -17%........
ReplyDeleteSilver - Looking tarnished again, a buy no doubt.
ReplyDeleteAGO - Head of iH&S here?
ReplyDeleteStill had a whopping 100 shs DECK left over that I sold at $79.5. Not really sure why it's up today so much...maybe because of UA?
ReplyDeleteChilean port strike is resolved, seems millions in fruit exports are lost.
ReplyDeleteBCA - CorpBanca Bank acquires a new investor:
Brazilian bank to buy Chilean lender
Brazilian mega-bank Itaú Unibank Holding S.A. — Latin America’s largest bank by market value — will expand operations in Chile after purchasing a 50.5 percent controlling stake in the country’s 5th largest bank, CorpBanca.
After the estimated US$2.5 billion deal goes through, the new company will become the 3rd largest bank in Chile. Itaú also said it would merge with CorpBanca’s operations in Colombia on Tuesday, as the latter has a significant presence in what was South America’s fastest growing economy last year.
JCP starting to show some positive divergences on the longer term charts. Bottom should play out over time...best to see what the RSI readings are after the next rally in the stock and to see it make double bottom or sharp spike lower on really low RSI readings or wait for 1st higher high on weekly chart. Nothing's perfect but generally speaking I've found your odds are higher when positive divergence + any of these is in place. This is what kept me away from BSBR last summer...still no clear bottom in place yet.
ReplyDeleteSeems like South American banks aren't considered TBTF quite like like US banks are.
DeleteOk fess up who bought UGAZ yesterday?
ReplyDeleteYou asking who bought yesterday's close?
DeleteBCA - So it looks like (on the surface), this bank agreed to cough up $2.5B in shares in return for $652M cash, they must've been desperate for cash.
ReplyDeleteBSBR has no cash either, seems like, and ttm earnings are $0.01, basically a rounding error.
ITUB seems to have stopped sliding, but the fire sale deal hasn't accomplished much more than that.
DeleteTOF- Basically everything!
ReplyDeleteCAT not exactly confirming China crash is it? maybe it needs to go over $93.50 to confirm?
ReplyDeleteAccounting for the rather minor 9% workforce reduction, they still have a large employee pool to draw from for their cost cutting program, too.
DeleteThey can't close the S&P flat this month can they?
ReplyDeleteTook the $300 clams on RH.
ReplyDeleteWe're are we going for drinks?
DeleteI'll order a throw rug.
Deletewhere
DeleteUp to you. I or we will be making a road trip your way this summer.
Deleteyou said that last year too...not holding my breath.
DeleteI might come down tomorrow.
DeleteNext time I'm near SD, I plan on a swing through Tijuana.
DeleteHDGE - Is this the active ETF 2nd was looking at?
ReplyDeleteYep.
DeleteThat's funny.
DeleteWell, we got a bounce today, so that is good. In the last year, we start a move upwards in the next day or two and start moving into the middle of the channel.
ReplyDeleteSZYM - •Solazyme Announces U.S. Commercial Production of Renewable™ Algal Oils at Iowa FacilitiesBusiness Wire(Thu 4:05PM EST)
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/solazyme-announces-u-commercial-production-210500894.html
October 28, 2013 1:18 PM As the FT notes, sell-side analysts have recently become increasingly bullish on Brazilian banks.
ReplyDeleteWorld Risks Deflationary Shock:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/10605957/World-risks-deflationary-shock-as-BRICS-puncture-credit-bubbles.html
Why do I feel like he's been dying to tell this story for a while? Oh wait, no, he's been telling this story for a while. Just different players. First it was Dubai, then Greece, then Italy and Spain, then Japan, then Cyprus, then Turkey, now the BRICs.
DeleteKeeping building that wall of worry
Yeah, I know! :) Even a stopped clock is right twice/day.
DeleteBest part for him is he's going to be right eventually and he will brag to the world that he was telling everyone all along. Gotta love the doomsayers.
Delete"Germany is the most important country in Europe", notes adviser to German Chancellor Merkel.
ReplyDeleteI just read CP's 1257 pm post. I opened a position in HDGE @ 13.23 around 1230 pm today, but was unable to post.
ReplyDeleteI also seriously considered a position in DGAZ @ yesterday's close, then got distracted with the Emerging Markets sell off. Bollocks.
ReplyDeleteI would've joined you in DGAZ, missed the opportunity. Not sure about HDGE, today's action was about econ data confirmation.
DeleteI'll stop in at the local JCP to buy socks this weekend. That should be good for a spike on Monday.
ReplyDeleteHave a look and see if they carry Joesph Abboud's line of men's apparel and tell me what you think (assuming they do have it).
DeleteGermany may have vowed to shut down their nuclear power plants but what about coal?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/researchers-alarmed-at-rise-in-german-brown-coal-power-output-a-942216.html
People making rash decisions without thinking about the consequences.
Delete"Let's get rid of clean nuclear because of a poorly situated Japanese reactor near an ocean and a major fault line and instead pollute our country with poor quality coal"
Silver - Gosh, it's getting closer, not further away. Should we be prepared to buy at $17 for the run to $150?
ReplyDeleteRobot's long at 1791, might get past 1812 resistance and back kiss 1827
ReplyDeleteA chart showing the channel off the recent bottom:
Deletehttp://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vZ0q2yF5mA4/Uuqdt7gY7MI/AAAAAAAANzQ/S18paWVxjns/s1600/spx+1-30+2-hour+jpeg.JPG
And another daily chart:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3zSs2hZpM30/UuqZ2c3JyBI/AAAAAAAANzE/-jUVjuRgydM/s1600/spx+1-30+jpeg.JPG
TXT - This one's been firing on all 8
ReplyDeleteBSBR - I see there was some buying in AH, not sure how much. So, this makes me wanna get back into BALT.
ReplyDeleteThe concall transript for BSBR is out.
DeleteThey are positive on the upcoming year, but one of the analyst called them out on being positive for 2013 and not meeting their goals. I'm not sure how strong management is at BSBR - Morningstar gives them a good writeup saying they are using best practices from Santander Bank which is one of the better run European banks.
I still plan to hold as I think owning some EM stocks now will be very profitable in a year or two,and BSBR has good valuation, a safe balance sheet and good potential to increase earnings in an oligopolistic environment.
Looks like a big drop is coming tmrw
ReplyDeleteFutures are giving back all of yesterday's gains. Will be interesting to see, markets generally don't like to go down the last day of the month and hurt all those fund performance ratings.
DeleteNow, I know I'm picking stats to support my view of the market and it's not really tradeable, but while a down January is generally bad for the year, a big down January is actually generally followed by a positive for the rest of the year:
http://schaefferstradingfloor.com/another-look-at-the-january-barometer/id=7735
Doug Kass being awfully cocky about the market going down for a guy who was wrong all last year.
DeleteCould be part of his keep saying we'll go down until you get it right, then you can talk about it for years.
What is, is. MA's have crossed over. A few big up days could change everything, but bowties off of all time highs is a strong signal.
DeleteAnyone else having the problem with this Blog that whenever you hit reply, it takes you to the top of the page, then you have to scroll all the way down to enter text?
ReplyDeleteNo, I don't have that issue. I never have to scroll back to the bottom, it returns me there following the refresh.
DeleteNot really. But I do have some random issues sometimes.
DeleteIra seemed negative/skeptical on Europe to me, now he has published his back-of the envelope explanation for BRICS
ReplyDeletehttp://yragharris.com/2014/01/30/correlation/#comment-16812
interesting stuff. who is Ira?
DeleteIra hangs out with Santelli, I try to comprehend his logic
DeleteTLT - Remains on the very same trajectory from the beginning of the year.
ReplyDeleteWill be interesting to see if they can crash below the December lows. If so that would be bearish to me. If not then I would think bears would be getting frustrated.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index falls to 1,110 , down 17
ReplyDeleteCXO - I'd really like to pick up a few shares if it would just crash for me.
ReplyDeleteWhat is it today?
ReplyDeleteFriday!
DeleteTGIBF!!!!!!!
DeleteBALT - There are no sellers! (Seems like)
ReplyDeleteJust wait, their hidding around the corner ;)
DeleteThey must be dressed in $DOD$ camo, not showing up on my radar! Need to find out who makes that slick camo???????
DeleteBuying AAPL at the close might be worth a scalp into Monday's open.
ReplyDeleteSZYM - Can it hang onto it's gains? I dunno, oil from algae is probably possible but it's got to be pretty expensive. How expensive compared to drilling/fracking?
ReplyDeleteOil from anything other than the ground is expensive.
DeleteTrue, caster oil is $$mucho$$, not looking forward to my next bottle of olive oil, might not be extra virgin this time.
DeleteBALT - Don't these guys know BDI hasn't gone up for over a week, it's been moving down!!!!!!!????
ReplyDeleteNWLI - I hope this old codger is thinking in terms of a carry trade!
ReplyDeleteDoc likes SVLC.
ReplyDeleteI'd pay $500 if we could fast forward to 5:00.
ReplyDeleteActually make that 4:00. There's a game i want to watch.
DeleteCan someone tell me whether this Sunday's game is worth watching, and which team is the underdog?
ReplyDeleteI can tell you with a certainty what everyone in the NW will be doing. As for odds, this seems to be the prediction so far: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24414376/super-bowl-odds-and-line-broncos-a-pick-em-against-seasf
DeleteI'm as nervous as I was against the 9'ers, but the Hawks ride on the defense. Go Hawks!
Seahawks will be winning in a landslide the first half.
DeleteI mean I understand the concern but the dec lows in the s&p are still holding and why is cat and the dry bulkers which are so tied to china actually up?
ReplyDeleteI dunno, but if you're right then CYD and OINK should break to the upside soon too, I'd think.
DeleteMaybe add CADC to the list, I'm sure there are a host of others.
DeleteAMZN - Where have all the flowers gone?
ReplyDeleteBALT - There are a couple of open gaps down I forgot about that need to be closed, maybe that's gonna happen soon?
ReplyDeletedown Jan-24-2014 5.69 to 5.64
down Jan-23-2014 5.92 to 5.9
From your lips to the markets ears although I'm more focused on the gaps down from the low teens
DeleteRight, I intend on participating in those festivities as well.
DeleteITUB is roaring back as well, this is hard to ignore.
DeleteIMH - This puppy has broken to the upside.
ReplyDeleteTGIGF!
ReplyDeleteNWLI - I should've sold this one days ago as soon as it started rolling over.
ReplyDeleteSo, I just expressed my personal satisfaction by dumping this high risk low reward position.
I remember looking closely at GTAT when it was in the 3's. That's what happens with sector turnarounds huh? You forget about them because they dwindle for so long and when you check back they're up 200%
ReplyDeleteFunny how that works, but it's AAPL stuff and we just aren't interested in buying low priced junk nobody wants.
DeleteNot sure if any of you guys listened to this webinar yesterday:
ReplyDeletehttp://capitallink.com/
They had an analyst from Wells Fargo for the dry bulk industry host a panel of 3 CEOs to discuss trends going on. Each of the CEOs mentioned that they expect a rebound in rates for Capesize vessels but that they would be very volatile. One of the CEOs was extremely bullish sounding while another one was still cautious...cautiously optimistic I guess, most likely because current spot rates have crashed so hard (who could be optimistic in light of this???)
"expect a rebound in rates for Capesize vessels"
DeleteThis sounds optimistic to me, enough to cause a brief rally despite the BDI crash. I bet they were optimistic last time the BDI was 2000+, they were pissing away shareholder cash on new ships all the way to BDI 400?
BALT - There isn't exactly a ton of volume in this move........
ReplyDelete750k in half a day is pretty decent. avg is 1.1 Million I would think if these gains hold then you should get some more buying into the close.
DeleteBALT close at $6.44 today? that would make for a flat month. I just want a close above $5.4
ReplyDeleteSentiment is horrible for EM. Gotta love it as a contrarian. There's a rising trendline from the October 2011 lows through last summer's lows at the low $37 area. Could we have a fakeout breakdown below that which would trigger a huge buying opportunity? I don't know but if I was looking for a longer term trade I think going long here and setting a stop limit below $36 would be a very good risk/reward trade.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Lok at this one and tell me something hasn't changed, we need to be preparing for. That preparation might just be a rotation into EM's, I dunno, but it's a good possibility.
ReplyDeleteMaybe EM governments want this, by raising rates to try making it an attractive move. I thought six months ago they were complaining about FED easy money spilling into their countries?
A mad, mad, world. 1/3 is fake, another 1/3 is vacuum and the remainder is purposefully misleading.
SZYM - They pumped this one with a big press release too, see the leverage you can get from a cheap campaign, this holds true for political lobbyists as well, a $1000 stake dinner or a shiny Rorex watch for a greedy politician can cost taxpayers billing in lost opportunity and outsourced employment.
ReplyDeleteBALT is an easy pump and dump as well as anything can be, it's not following the BDI today, so this action is nothing more than hopium, not unlike SYZM.
GNK is today's reality play.
Don't get me wrong though, I was one of the idiots who was shook out of TCK by a stupid comment BC made, I'm sure he was trying to scare b/c he doesn't respect his readers.
DeletePump and dump baby! I love pump and dumps. I think the key story here is almost all of the major players are bullish on rates going up due to supply capping / scrapping and are trying to position themselves for higher rates but none of them have nearly the exposure that BALT does. I bet what happens is a lot of companies lock in rates the first chance they can do it at a profitable rate which means there will be a smaller supply of ships at spot rates...and BALT rakes it in as spot rates ratchet up. Ok back to sleep. I need to dream some more.
DeleteHDGE taken off around 13.30.
ReplyDeleteTurning positive on Emerging markets + Europe.
We could have bought CXO at any of the four lower trend line intersects this year and flipped the shares. Straight as an arrow.
DeleteEWM/EWW/EWZ - These aren't exactly blowing the roof off, granted, they're not losing ground.
ReplyDeleteI have to admit, I pulled over today to sell some BALT @ 5.80. Waited a few minutes and canceled the order. There's a reason it hasn't followed the BDI down the rabitt hole.
ReplyDeleteThe rate of BDI decay has slowed considerably.
DeleteTCK - Might end with a hammer?
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Off another 2%, still no relief.
ReplyDeleteOops, make that -3%, accelerating rate of decay bound to overshoot $4.20 target?
DeleteCXO - Couldn't muster a close better than the technical line in the sand of $97.82
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Why is it I can't get the price I want during the day while somebody can step in at close to move a couple thousand shares without so much as a $0.50 price movement?
ReplyDeleteClosed HDGE on the -200 point opening drop in the DJIA, and starting to turn bullish here. Even if the markets are destined for lower prices, they rarely arrive at the bottom via a straight line. Following an entire week of trash talk about emerging markets, weak hands have capitulated (at least for the short term).
ReplyDeleteI plan to open positions in RYWVX (Rydex Emerging Markets) and RYEUX (Rydex Europe) at the close.
ITUB - A $12.2m bar at close for this $61B bank.
ReplyDeleteNEWL - We can always catch this one, once the BDI returns to 4,000?
ReplyDeleteAGCO - This puppy sank, just when it looked like maybe EM's were madly placing orders for farm tractors, it bogged down in the mud stopped in it's tracks?
ReplyDeleteHa, maybe CAT's scooping up all the orders these days?
DE - Just finished just off low of day, Only CAT's farm tractors financed by booming EM banks and used to grow the crops that fill bulker ships globally, are flying off the show room floors!
DeleteJO - Nice pop there, eh?
ReplyDeleteCLF - This one looks ripe
ReplyDeleteCoal - I'm reading BTU's report released last night and it sounds like global coal consumption is definitely on a substantial increase, maybe some other folks happened to read it last night?
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1982611-peabody-energys-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo
Objective trader liking the same uptrend lows as I see. http://chinwagtraders.com/author/doc-barter
ReplyDeleteMakes sense to me.
looks like he's looking for only a small move higher before a move down of about 25 to 30%. Part of me definitely sees the similarities between this market and the one from 1980/81. there was a sharp move higher that year followed by a slow grind lower of 25% over a 18 to 20 month period or so. Actually it was more of a sideways pattern for 10 months or so before finally giving way to a sharp move lower in the fall of 1981. I could see a similar scenario setting up here...where bulls are heartened by the fact that the market kind of just holds in there while the Fed tapers and then when it's done and people think the market is ready to rally higher it just drops like a rock and we see a 25% correction peak to trough. Knowing how the market loves to make moves lower in the fall this kind of makes a lot of sense to me.
DeleteWould it be far fetched to think EM's might benefit from a US market sell off? I'm also still willing to consider a bulk shipping rally, as that would be one mechanism for EM's to grow, or at least rescue, their economies. Maybe it would be easier to just short the US market.......
DeleteYeah I also think there's a scenario where the US market stalls / consolidates gains for the next 18 months and EM rallies mainly due to valuations / central bank easing overseas.
DeleteEM's - If a country's debt is valued in a foreign currency, the depreciation of its domestic currency drives up the value of its loans, thus making it difficult to pay. A floating currency keeps the market abreast of any impending problems.
ReplyDeleteSo here on this chart, we can see the Brazilian Real has broken down to new lows. So the question is, is Brazil's debt payable interest and principle, in Reals, or in $US?
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BRL%3DX+Interactive#symbol=;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
So whomever sells credit default swaps for EM debt is probably doing a brisk business about right now, eh? Would that be AIG?
ReplyDeletewow interesting comments on that BTU call. thanks for sharing it CP. like this overview:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1982611-peabody-energys-ceo-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=4
EMB/ELD - Interesting the yield on EMB denominated in $US is greater than the yield on ELD, denominated in local currencies. It seems like the local currency yield should be higher, considering there's a currency volatility risk involved.
ReplyDeleteURA - How's this one look, like a bull flag? Noticing the recent low remains higher than earlier this month.
ReplyDeleteIndia's adding what, 100GW of coal to their grid, right? How many tons of coal will be needed annually, to supply this 100GW of electrical power?
I guess California can't do that. Solar can get the job, but can he do the job? Good luck California, I guess this might be one reason INTC finally shuttered their (greater than $1B) San Jose D2 fab a couple years ago. (INTC threatened to do this during the time Enron was playing their brownout games, and they followed through). Say hello to high as hell alternative energy electricity prices, good thing California doesn't have the heating season the rest of us do.
Speaking of high as hell electricity, there are almost 1.6GW of nuclear power sitting just around the corner here generated by 2 nuclear reactors, this will cost $10B to double capacity, Makes coal look better, huh?
So what'll it be America, burn wood while exporting refined hydrocarbons from Canadian oil sands to Saudi Arabia?
It does seem like a very reasonable scenario that the US underperforms his year, especially looking at the relative valuations and now the US$ being up and making overseas assets cheaper. The nice thing about being a US investor is you can buy stocks from pretty much anywhere through ADRs.
ReplyDeleteI was thnking of doing more trading this year to take advantange of market swings. But, while Timing a pullback would be great, it is really hard to do and many people missed the 30% year last year (look how poorly the "smart" hedge funds did last year) trying to do that.
"many people missed the 30% year last year"
DeleteSo true, and so did I ! Therefore, I'm especially sensitive about sidestepping the inverse.
BB - I think Brazil's debt is denominated in $US, therefore a soft Real makes for additional interest and principal expense, no? If the FED continues tapering (and tapering isn't already completely priced), the situation could worsen?
DeleteI'm really not sure what percent of their debt is in US$, but I would suspect the bulk is in Brasil Real's. It wouldn't make sense for an economy to do otherwise as it puts things too much at risk.
DeleteBut the Brasil Real is down 10% since October and the value of the currency definitely drives the stock price.
Pimco buying Brazil debt though:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-30/pimco-buys-mexico-brazil-debt-as-mather-says-selloff-too-broad.html
Looks like it's both, haven't found figures yet. Pimco says they bough theirt debt issued in the currencies of Mexico and Brazil. Dunno if BSBR has cash on hand to accomplish the same.
DeleteWNR - I'm still kicking myself for getting knocked out of this one in the single digits, should have known US refiners would become the transmission for US energy export.
ReplyDeleteALDW - "Throughput at the Big Spring Refinery for the first quarter of 2014 is currently expected to average 73,000 barrels per day."
ReplyDeleteHow many solar panels does it take to replace the equivalent of 73,000 barrels (if each barrel costs ~$90, that's $6.5M of feedstock/day)?
The 1999 Brazilian Crisis, guess who was Brazil's largest trading partner (hint: Argentina):
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research/swe/1999/swe9902c.pdf
This is how the Real came to be Brazil's currency:
Deletehttp://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2010/10/04/130329523/how-fake-money-saved-brazil
Last 3 months return -2.26%
ReplyDeleteLast Month return +1.83%
Fing A I put a lot of work into this for that.
Hey you're outperforming this yr already. Just switch to spy and you're guaranteed to outperform this yr
DeleteSo basically you're in line for a big bonus
DeleteThe bottom in the s&p from dec still wasn't broken. I think saut pays a decent amt of attention to this. Despite the super bearishness around the "crisis" in EMs and what I think is a lot of bearish traders this has to be viewed positively. Could change on Monday of course
DeleteAt least BALT is helping now. Still so heavily weighted to ENPH though. Amazingly, with dividends, ARR is probably flat!
DeleteDudes, check this out...
ReplyDeletehttps://cs.uwaterloo.ca/~yuying/papers/cvarBook.pdf
The lead author is a client I have for next year. Works for WFC as a currency derivatives trader.
Ugh I had to read this shit when I was studying for the CFA years ago. Brutal
DeleteI love it, A⌠S ds
DeleteBSBR - Trying to read this bone-dry transcript over, I was unable to sense a positive tone from the Q&A section, did I miss something?
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1982031-banco-santander-brasil-s-a-management-discusses-q4-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?source=yahoo
BALT could convert to the low end cruise line or slave transport business and get this rate!
ReplyDeleteRates for Capesizes transporting at least 150,000 metric tons of iron ore and coal slumped 2 percent to $8,263 a day,
Where do you find rates posted?
DeleteVarious places for me, considering my "budget subscription", then of course a paid subscription is arguably much better (maybe?)!
DeleteI read the current rate here, it's a source linked numerous times above! :)p
http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=75071728-fd51-440d-a8ec-57260e60da1e
Dryships.com as well go to market report
DeleteThanks guys.
DeleteReady for the game! pic.twitter.com/tJ8yLlHgd4
ReplyDeleteIs that Harlen?
DeleteMTW - Quite a move UP there, Friday
ReplyDeleteCrane rentals at all time high. Wonder where the cranes are, repairing bridges or building shipping ports?
DeleteFunny I was just looking at this on Friday. I was thinking about how this can happen along with CAT, the steel names, and the shippers all looking solid despite the market supposedly going through a crisis
DeleteThe O&G industry is using cranes, the east coast and gulf ports are dredging and improving (for the Panama Canal expansion), The Panama Canal construction is back in full swing (Giant CAT trucks!), and Australia just reopened coal shipment after shutdown from the large storm. India has been talking about the need to improve their ports, too shallow and bulk materials infrastructure is poor and lacking.
DeleteEverybody seems to be counting on the US and China for a restart of global trade..
Baltic Dry Index falls to 1,093 , down 17
ReplyDeleteEWS - Singapore is an important shipping hub, isn't it?
Wondering how much the nasty weather in the us impacted everything in dec and jan. It was cold as hell for a long time.
ReplyDeleteNeither way, everyone will blame everything on it!
DeleteThe Superbowl Indicator is in favor of the bears.
DeleteEWW - I think if any country doesn't deserve a drubbing, it would be Mexico.
ReplyDeleteInteresting notes on q4 earnings:
ReplyDeletehttp://fundamentalis.com/?p=3240
Good find, I'm wondering if the market got that part right and now is thinking out to EOY?
DeleteTVIX - Well, that's not complacency.
ReplyDeleteBALT - That last spike to $5.72 was interesting.
ReplyDeleteGLDD - Won their contract for improving Miami's port, this was announced several days ago, I think. Now testing that support from September.
ReplyDeleteSo basically I'm thinking that QE capital went to EM's to finance debt so they could buy our crap and get themselves in debt, which helped us to recover. Now they need us to keep rebounding in order for them to work off their QE hangover from the cheap capital.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Wow, nearly back to $11, this has been a strong move off the lows.
ReplyDeleteBACML still has an $8.50 objective on this one, I guess I need to sell it once they upgrade it to $15, same story as their recent $102 upgrade on HII
DeleteIt was nearly 70*F here yesterday, I guess you guys know. Potomac Phil the muskrat saw his shadow though, so six more weeks of winter. Today, it's cold and rainy, I'll probably break down and relight the wood stove to save on electricity.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteGNK - Oops!
ReplyDeleteBALT - Gotta say, people sure do seem to like this one, buying in spurts seems like. I guess it really is one of the better positioned ones for speculating on upside, unlike GNK, which could go tits-up in another few weeks?
ReplyDelete