Bad timing, indeed! RYWVX off at the 1030 am est trading window. RYEUX will be taken off at the close. Unless the market crashes between now and then, I should escape with a fractional percentage loss.
The winds have changed, IMO. It’s a good time to decide which is more important: market exposure or capital preservation. If you decide to preserve capital, the next decision is at what point to cut losses. The market may continue to frustrate investors and simply bounce back to new highs. It’s just not a bet I’m willing to make.
I wanna try to catch the bottom in EM's, it's not there yet, I guess. Either that, or the screaming and yellen is just too loud for me to think clearly. Look fer Mexico to turn green first at some point going forward, I guess, an indicator the US demand is persisting. WHR builds refrigerators and brown goods in Mexico, and WHR is a reflection on the housing market. Very cold winter cost the US consumer more, less dinero for buying non-essentials, and now they're being forced to buy healthcare, so we'll just have to see how this all goes. Rocky at the moment, is my observation, but trying to keep in mind the market looks out much further than I can project myself.
Could be a bear or could be just a downturn....one guy I follow who gives damn good market timing signals is Eric Wish, who developed a pretty good timing model. I've been following him for years and when his model says go to cash, it's best to go to cash. Likewise, when the model says go long, you should do so. His indicators are pretty straightforward. I've learned (the hard way) to pay attention when the market starts getting dicey. Currently, the model is in cash:
here's a link to an explanation of his General Market Index. The current index is on the home page. http://wishingwealthblog.com/2005/04/the-wishing-wealth-general-market-index/
BALT - One thing this one really has as a tailwind, is coal consumption in EM's I think, including Japan (puff, puff!). From what I can find, everyone's burning more coal by a considerable amount, not less. This is why BTU upgraded all their equipment recently, I think unless some kind of miracle occurs, global coal consumption will be strong to maybe even off the charts.
India would love to use their iron ore to make steel, but they have to import coking coal to do it. And, their ports are shallow and clogged already. When they comment that the cargo can't move due to traffic jams on the roads, I guess that means their rail infrastructure sucks. They need rail, (never mind they've burned a ton of money on who knows what, not rail, I guess) so who's gonna build it out?
It really all comes down to supply vs demand in all of these cyclical sectors. I don't know why cyclicals don't manage their inventories better but I guess its human nature.
INT - These guys sell bunker fuel to refill ships. Not sure which ports they operate in, sounds like US mostly but it's unclear. Anyway, the chart seems to have rolled over for the time being?
URG - Even this one's sucking the big high hard one today, I guess we don't need any kind of energy? TTM - On the bright side, failed the 200sma and is still coming to my portfolio.
The DJIA just broke the 200 DMA. VIX up 70%. I don't know. I hear ya on the bear but let's look at the fundamentals...are they really bad? What if the earnings estimates do come in as they are right now: $120 EPS. That's a 14.5 multiple.
I don't think we should ignore the weather's impact on the economy. When it's 10 degrees with 20 MPH winds I know I prefer to sit inside and crank up the heater instead of going outside.
NIHD - Man, I kinda thought this morning this one was about to zoom, glad I resisted that juicy-looking plastic worm. There's more something about confiscating bandwidth from public use and giving it away to some other use but it sounds complicated and controversial.
FMAR - Looks like ~3 month C&H, bottom of cup mid Dec. Hickory Dickery Dock, I have this impression WS was avoiding taking gains before the new year, the weakness started as the clock struck 12
KB - Double bottom here? So DAMN tempting! I figure if the Yen has bottomed, so too is SKorea. This would be especially true if Japan restarted their reactors instead of switching to coal, which seems like a done deal (coal).
BSBR - Someone ran out of money, I don't think they nailed the bottom.
"create a right shoulder around 1800." Damn..... Yep, unless of course we happen to fall straight down through the anus and break our f'ing neck..... We all know this is total BS but it is what it is, I guess. Gimme my fake swan eggs sunny side up. :(
(a) Only two places to hide today> bonds and gold (kudos to Ed Dempsey/Michael Gayed of ATACX for making the transition into bonds in mid-January). (b) DJIA -2%. SPX -2.2%. NDQ -2.7% (GOOG has given up all of its recent post-earnings gains). IWM (Russell 2000) -3%. (c) RYWVX closed the 1030 am trading window down -1.77% (-0.20) @ 11.11 (I opened Friday @ 11.31). Under the circumstances (EEM currently down -2.81%, which translates into a -5.62% hit for RYWVX), I consider that dodging a bullet, and another example of taking losses quickly. (d) EZU (Europe) currently down -1.75%. So RYEUX likely to close off -2%.
(e) After 2013, investors have forgotten what a bear market feels like! Reaping gains in a rising market? That’s pretty easy to ‘manage.’ Managing risk in a down market takes more practice. Even if you’re ‘sure’ you’re able to withstand a major correction, it’s prudent to determine a ‘stop’ ahead of time. The alternative is the risk of an emotional decision at exactly the wrong time.
Gold - Other than perhaps as a temporary hiding place, why is it up (to lower highs)? Why isn't AUMN trading at $35, why is MUX red?
I think it's b/c the term "Gold Standard" is a marketing term, the reality is people don't view PM's as money, they view access to credit as money, they focus on their credit scores.
Crap - my internet was down all day today - think this bad weather got me. Just up in the last half hour.
Plus, it's my wife's birthday, so making her dinner and taking her out ot a show tonight, so not much time to look into things.
To me, it feels like the market is still mainly taking profits in the 2013 winners and there is a lot of profits to be taken there. But the selling seemed a bit more indiscriminate today, so maybe we are nearing the end.
Hard to know, but playing the odds, it is safer to buy now than a month ago. Probably not a bad time to make some small purchases in case we are getting close, but wouldn't go all in yet.
Value is always important obviously. I wouldn't want to be in any overpriced stocks right now even if we do head higher because I think the rotation into beaten down sectors will continue. Those sectors appear to be the ones like the steels, coals, and others we focus on. I think they will perform well over the intermediate term.
by the way, not sure you guys saw that Philip Seymour Hoffman passed away. Too bad. He was one of my favorite actors from this era, along with Edward Norton, Sean Penn, Paul Giamatti and DiCaprio.
Corn - How bad is the South American drought? Hot Chile has been receiving fire fighting assistance from Brazil, right? Will the real rodents please stand up? "Jan 8, 2014 ... Chile - President announces measures to combat poor air quality and curb spread of diseases transmitted by rodents fleeing the fires."
"The China VIX that measures volatility is approaching an elevated 30 level showing that traders are experiencing more fear in China than the US. The levels of fear are great at identifying bottoms so the data hints that perhaps China and/or the Asian stock markets may place a near-term bottom before the US markets.
French companies Total, Renault and others make plans to conduct business with Iran once sanctions are lifted. Human greed and the search for profits will always outweigh concerns over a shaky country developing nuclear weapons, worries over terrorism or human rights violations. Porsche, and Chairmen Wolfgang Porsche and Ferdinand Piech, are sued by seven hedge funds over the failed purchase of Volkswagen AG. Euro zone PMI’s are in line or better than expected with France at 49.3 fighting back towards the expansion level at 50."
They are in dire straits fundamentally, though. Need an agreement by their lenders before 3/31/14 to extend debt or do a massive dilution. Or they need the baltic dry index to skyrocket here. All look unlikely.
Vehicle to infrastructure positioning system for automatic crash avoidance? Each vehicle is connected via transponder to an infrastructure tracking system that automatically instructs the vehicle to brake or maneuver, for collision avoidance.
We got rain! (South America) Soybeans: "Traders are starting to circulate estimates for next week's USDA report, which should show a huge South American crop offset by slightly tighter U.S. supplies caused by strong demand. Carryout could drop 10 million bushels to 140 million.
Argentina is picking up good rains in its central soy belt today, though other parts of the country may get only spotty coverage this week. Parts of southern Brazil also received rain over the weekend, but more is needed after a January that was the hottest on record to the north in Sao Paulo."
Interesting. The weekly RSI_EMA reading from ThinkorSwim for the VIX is at 76, highest level since right before the 2013 rally began and 1st week of August, 2011. Other prior reading this high since bull market began: Week of May 17, 2010.
In prior bull markets this reading got as high as 80 several times and every time except for Oct 2008 it was a great time to buy. Looks like we're almost there if you go by this reading. I'll let you know if it gets there. I suspect if we get to 1710ish (200 DMA) without bouncing we will see this type of reading.
"Congress has passed few major deficit reduction bills or major bipartisan jobs bills in recent years. Tomorrow, the Senate can reduce the deficit and help farmers, ranchers and business owners create jobs by passing the 2014 Farm Bill," Stabenow said.
The bill increases support for fruits and vegetables and local food systems. It also protects food assistance for children, seniors and families while achieving savings in the program by addressing misuse. It is also the country's largest investment in land and water conservation in years, the Senate Agriculture Committee said.
The farm bill is supported by several key farm, food and conservation organizations. A few notable exceptions include the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and the National Pork Producers Council, both of which oppose the bill because it fails to eliminate Country of Origin Labeling."
LNN - This one that makes AG irrigation systems hasn't given back any gains. They also make highway barrier systems, so maybe Chris Christie handed them a great Q last?
KB - Several Korean credit card companies are disciplined over the security breach that affected one-half of the Korean population. KB Financial loses -3.6%. South Korea's Jan coal imports from Australia's Newcastle port double from Dec "South Korea bought 23.7% of the 9.2 million mt of coal loaded at PWCS' two terminals at Newcastle in January, up from a 10.25% share of December's total tonnage of 9.5 million mt, PWCS data showed. The surge comes after South Korea's parliament in January approved a new tax on thermal coal imports that will kick in July 1."
This is a really good article, it covers all the coal shipped from this port: http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=776eac35-bf80-43e2-bb0b-6eb2fdd6e75f
This is pretty interesting as well: http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=8865dba1-664e-41a9-ae2d-f7517a81bc45
The purchase market for dry bulkers is pretty active (this is the used ship market) with prices up 50% in a little over a year for the value of these ships.
True, even my Broker was saying all last year that Europe is dead, probably will continue saying this until the top is in. Now they're busily downgrading South America, I think. Except for AGCO, for some reason.
VE - Looks like a fake move out of the bottom of the pendant to me, these scam artists have increased their objective to $12.20, a few months back it was around $8~9, I think.
These guys(BACML) know what's going on in the world, they have a strong research team that understands economics, they're misleading on purpose
AGCO - "AGCO reported Q4 EPS of $1.40 compared to consensus ($1.35) and BofAMLe ($1.33). AGCO generated stronger than expected FCF. AGCO reiterated its $6.00 EPS guidance for 2014. The company is guiding to net sales of $10.8-11bn (vs consensus $10.5bn). We believe the main focus on the conference call will be the weak performance in South America. Call scheduled for 10:00 am."
BAP - Reports tomorrow after close. Since BSBR hasn't vaulted since earnings, maybe a similar result? ITUB - Up a mere 8%, well into recovery range from this week's plunge if the gain holds. Maybe it just rips higher from here? "04-Feb-14 09:46AM Profit at Itaú hits record as revenue jumps; shares soar Reuters +8.72%"
Mark - Two guys that were on the ADES message board when I was in that stock back around $3 (they're still in the stock) are heavy in ACI. I'll see what they're talking about with that one. I'm assuming they got interested after ADES did a clean coal license deal with ACI a few years ago. They seem to be really bullish on ADES
Any idea who the largest met coal players are? ACI said the met coal market is weak and they don't expect a rebound for a while; however they were pretty bullish on thermal coal. Do you know anyone that has a breakdown of met coal %'s by company?
I think BTU was touting their Powder River Basin production and if I recall, that was met coal? You have me wondering about that now, so I guess I have to re-read that. TCK is a met coal producer, they spent a ton on acquiring that a few years back. I agree, thermal coal should do well, especially probably needs restocking soon due to winter consumption and this summer I guess more coal fired stations are coming fast and furious.
The only real alternative is nuclear and that takes way more money and planning, so I don't see how coal can't be the real "transition" fuel that maybe sticks around a bit longer than anticipated, ot at least until the perpetual motion machine is perfected.
Maybe things get serious concerning fossil fuels when someone finally places solar cells on the roof of production automobiles while keeping a straight face, which might happen if crash avoidance systems infrastructure can be implemented, like at intersections, where the vehicle automatically is stopped without driver invervention. I think this one has HUGE potential, so keep your ears open..
Report from CIBC on TSX earnings: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/s_p_tsx_nov13.pdf
The key is that it is currently pretty much valued near it's longer term average, but is more levered to global growth, so could do better if the economy continues to pick up.
Hey, if met coal demand is weak, that probably means iron ore demand is as well, right? I kinda like the thermal coal idea too, it's the fast-track for getting power to the people(who want to adopt western ways yet still will riot)!
AGCO - These guys were awfully brief on their plans for Russia and the Ukrane, they only simply said they spent a pile of money. My understanding is, tons and tons of new land are being planted there, which is likely to place a squeeze on global prices for a few years.
BALT - Fly complained about BALT being up, he doesn't get it. I nearly bought till I saw that, he thinks another leg down is coming. I'm not so sure about that, myself.
Had a bid in to add to my position in Canadian Nursing Home Company Extendicare (EXE.TO, EXETF) get hit at $6.98.
They are in the process of trying to spin off their US homes, but the Canadian ones should be able to support the 7% dividend, so any sale from the US should add to the stock price.
I'm not sure if the markets are done going down or not, but I think this is a good price for this stock.
I bet they're right, natty is expensive and the old standard coal fired power is cranking back up to fill the void, people are rethinking the planned decommissions, asking questions about wht electric prices aren't dropping with the glut of natty, our transition fuel.
Coal Demand: As usual, I'm kinda lost, LOL, on why ANI over ANR or BTU, which is the best play! Thermal coal is obviously the current focus b/c it's used for electricity generation, it appears this type of coal comes from the Powder River Basin, right? ACI/ANR/BTU all operate in the PRB? Something gives one the advantage over another? BTU spent a butt-ton of money on new equipment globally everything was replaced, which grenaded their cap-ex, and that's done with now. BTU seems to be having some difficulty in Australia, though. Maybe we're looking for Australian coal play, or US? I'm confused of course, as usual. Or, are we looking for leverage thus interested in a small player rebound?
"Powder River Basin coal is of the sub-bituminous type and generally mined from the surface. Basin coal, while often lower in energy content, is known for its particularly low sulfur content. "
"Sub-bituminous coal - This is a medium soft coal that contains much less moisture than lignite and is not nearly as crumbly. Like lignite, its primary use is in the generation of electricity. The carbon content of sub-bituminous coal runs from 35%-45% and its heat value generally ranges from 8,000-13,000 Btu's per pound. It is produced primarily along the east side of the Rocky Mountains from eastern Montana to the four corners area where the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah join."
Well, I dunno for sure, I kinda like that BTU's cap-ex projection is CONSIDERABLY LESS than in previous years, Japan has said it wants to use more US/Canadian coal as a second source, and I did see an article a couple weeks back where Japan said they need the "cleaner US coal", you know how so much misleading BS gets circulated. Near 40% of Australian coal exports go to Japan, and Australia is just around the corner, so maybe the largest Aussie play is the ticket. BTU is kinda trying to come up to speed there, it sounds like from their cc, struggling to extract material due to geologic challanges, sounded like their experience is limited and they're going through a learning curve.
RIO is looking pretty strong, there may be a reason. TTM was up pretty nicely today as well. Whatever wasn't up is probably unpopular for good reason, most likely?
I think the play is the guys with the most exposure to US Thermal Coal given the explosion in Nat Gas prices in the US. These guys are so beaten down that a move from 0.25X book to 0.50X book isn't exactly crazy.
FBP - Earnings response didn't accomplish a change in sentiment for this Puerto Rico banker. BACML has been touting with their $9 objective. I do like that FBP is a buyer of PR gov debt, though. The chart looks like it's going over the cliff here with a series of new 52wk lows. JCP - Ouchie, yet another new 52wk low for the deluded bag holder!
Bad timing, indeed! RYWVX off at the 1030 am est trading window. RYEUX will be taken off at the close. Unless the market crashes between now and then, I should escape with a fractional percentage loss.
ReplyDeleteThe winds have changed, IMO. It’s a good time to decide which is more important: market exposure or capital preservation. If you decide to preserve capital, the next decision is at what point to cut losses. The market may continue to frustrate investors and simply bounce back to new highs. It’s just not a bet I’m willing to make.
I wanna try to catch the bottom in EM's, it's not there yet, I guess. Either that, or the screaming and yellen is just too loud for me to think clearly. Look fer Mexico to turn green first at some point going forward, I guess, an indicator the US demand is persisting. WHR builds refrigerators and brown goods in Mexico, and WHR is a reflection on the housing market.
ReplyDeleteVery cold winter cost the US consumer more, less dinero for buying non-essentials, and now they're being forced to buy healthcare, so we'll just have to see how this all goes. Rocky at the moment, is my observation, but trying to keep in mind the market looks out much further than I can project myself.
Could be a bear or could be just a downturn....one guy I follow who gives damn good market timing signals is Eric Wish, who developed a pretty good timing model. I've been following him for years and when his model says go to cash, it's best to go to cash. Likewise, when the model says go long, you should do so. His indicators are pretty straightforward. I've learned (the hard way) to pay attention when the market starts getting dicey. Currently, the model is in cash:
ReplyDeletehere's a link to an explanation of his General Market Index. The current index is on the home page. http://wishingwealthblog.com/2005/04/the-wishing-wealth-general-market-index/
Thanks for that confirmation, it's important for me to not be riding my entire portfolio into the ground.
DeleteGLDD - I'm liking this one b/c they won a contract to dredge Miami's port in preparation for the Panama Canal expansion.
BALT - One thing this one really has as a tailwind, is coal consumption in EM's I think, including Japan (puff, puff!). From what I can find, everyone's burning more coal by a considerable amount, not less. This is why BTU upgraded all their equipment recently, I think unless some kind of miracle occurs, global coal consumption will be strong to maybe even off the charts.
ReplyDeleteIndia would love to use their iron ore to make steel, but they have to import coking coal to do it. And, their ports are shallow and clogged already. When they comment that the cargo can't move due to traffic jams on the roads, I guess that means their rail infrastructure sucks. They need rail, (never mind they've burned a ton of money on who knows what, not rail, I guess) so who's gonna build it out?
It really all comes down to supply vs demand in all of these cyclical sectors. I don't know why cyclicals don't manage their inventories better but I guess its human nature.
DeleteINT - These guys sell bunker fuel to refill ships. Not sure which ports they operate in, sounds like US mostly but it's unclear. Anyway, the chart seems to have rolled over for the time being?
ReplyDeleteURG - Even this one's sucking the big high hard one today, I guess we don't need any kind of energy?
ReplyDeleteTTM - On the bright side, failed the 200sma and is still coming to my portfolio.
Let's see if we can get some cathartic selling here.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we could get a spike down here in the next day or so. Maybe turnaround tuesday?
DeleteThe DJIA just broke the 200 DMA. VIX up 70%. I don't know. I hear ya on the bear but let's look at the fundamentals...are they really bad? What if the earnings estimates do come in as they are right now: $120 EPS. That's a 14.5 multiple.
DeleteI don't think we should ignore the weather's impact on the economy. When it's 10 degrees with 20 MPH winds I know I prefer to sit inside and crank up the heater instead of going outside.
DeleteBSBR is acting in a bazaar fashion, waiting for another breakdown in 3,2,1....
DeleteBV - Speaking of bazaar, how's this one looking near here?
BV: Are they a VG competitor?
DeleteGoing a little nuts over here, I'm resisting buying into this with all my might! :)
DeleteBV - Hell, I dunno, I seem to recall we were looking at/considering it some months ago. As far as I know, they make loud speakers, LOL....
DeleteNIHD - Man, I kinda thought this morning this one was about to zoom, glad I resisted that juicy-looking plastic worm. There's more something about confiscating bandwidth from public use and giving it away to some other use but it sounds complicated and controversial.
ReplyDeleteWe're down 5% from the peak...Japan is down 5% from the peak last night. wow.
ReplyDeleteMaybe 5 can get us 10?
DeleteWonder if we test the 200 DMA this week possibly. That would be another 33 S&P pts down.
ReplyDeleteFMAR - Looks like ~3 month C&H, bottom of cup mid Dec.
ReplyDeleteHickory Dickery Dock, I have this impression WS was avoiding taking gains before the new year, the weakness started as the clock struck 12
Mark, is the differential equation tracking today?
ReplyDeleteWhat was that you were saying about NIHD?
ReplyDeleteYeah, bound to be volatile considering the girth of the short float. Too bad I'm absurdly ignorant and unable to determine what it's really worth.
DeleteI think Mark is right...they will let the bottom drop out soon enough. I think odds are high we will see sub $1
DeleteI'll go with that one, sounds good to me!
DeleteKB - Double bottom here? So DAMN tempting! I figure if the Yen has bottomed, so too is SKorea. This would be especially true if Japan restarted their reactors instead of switching to coal, which seems like a done deal (coal).
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Someone ran out of money, I don't think they nailed the bottom.
JBSAY - Volume is off the hook, does Asia want meat? I know they love meat, can't get enuff!
ReplyDeleteBoy UAL sure looks like an island reversal potential. Wouldn't be surprised to see it back below $40.
ReplyDeleteNIHD
ReplyDeleteZNGA
MY
GDXJ
only ones on my board that are up, not including the inverse ETFs
BALT - To me, no volume means there are no sellers. Not sure if that's a safe assumption, just my conclusion.
ReplyDeleteHey JO
DeleteShorted small position in UAL at $44.23. Probably just a day trade but taking a shot that the $43.7 level gets taken out.
ReplyDeleteCovered at $43.94
DeleteLong SPY for a trade $174.35
ReplyDeleteBasing this solely on heavy volume sell orders coming in on the heels of a heavy drop could be ST capitulation
DeleteSold $174.7
DeleteLong again $174.46.
DeleteGotta go out for a bit. Stop limit $174.33
Deletesold on fon app $174.85
DeleteRYWVX closes the 1030 am window down -1.77% (0.20) @ 11.11. Under the circumstances, I consider that dodging a bullet.
ReplyDeleteStick save (and a beauty) coming in the emerging markets. Mini currency crisis averted.
ReplyDeleteI just have a stick in my eye.
DeleteJDSU - Gap up is now closed.
ReplyDeleteOn oldie but a goodie!... NOT!
DeleteI'm glad you can keep track of this sh*t, cause I dang sure can't...
Deletelong spy again $175.53
ReplyDeletestop imit 174.4
DeleteSure looks like we should hold around here if nothing else but to create a right shoulder around 1800.
Deletedoh looks like i was stopped out. I know this is perma bullish but i still think we see 2,014 for 2014.
Delete"create a right shoulder around 1800."
DeleteDamn..... Yep, unless of course we happen to fall straight down through the anus and break our f'ing neck..... We all know this is total BS but it is what it is, I guess. Gimme my fake swan eggs sunny side up. :(
1768 - Robot flipped short
ReplyDelete(a) Only two places to hide today> bonds and gold (kudos to Ed Dempsey/Michael Gayed of ATACX for making the transition into bonds in mid-January).
ReplyDelete(b) DJIA -2%. SPX -2.2%. NDQ -2.7% (GOOG has given up all of its recent post-earnings gains). IWM (Russell 2000) -3%.
(c) RYWVX closed the 1030 am trading window down -1.77% (-0.20) @ 11.11 (I opened Friday @ 11.31). Under the circumstances (EEM currently down -2.81%, which translates into a -5.62% hit for RYWVX), I consider that dodging a bullet, and another example of taking losses quickly.
(d) EZU (Europe) currently down -1.75%. So RYEUX likely to close off -2%.
(e) After 2013, investors have forgotten what a bear market feels like! Reaping gains in a rising market? That’s pretty easy to ‘manage.’ Managing risk in a down market takes more practice. Even if you’re ‘sure’ you’re able to withstand a major correction, it’s prudent to determine a ‘stop’ ahead of time. The alternative is the risk of an emotional decision at exactly the wrong time.
Kinda makes me wonder if $US isn't off slightly today b/c capital is flowing into EM's?
DeleteJBSAY - What do cows and pigs eat? Soybeans! Brazil grows shit-tons of soybeans, so do Uruguay and Argentina.
ReplyDeleteWho thinks the selloff is over this week?
ReplyDeleteI think today was the washout, not willing to place my money on it though.
Deletewell i did! i bought SPY again after hours at $173.87. another day trade even though i probably should wait it out.
Deletesold $174.17.
DeleteGold - Other than perhaps as a temporary hiding place, why is it up (to lower highs)? Why isn't AUMN trading at $35, why is MUX red?
ReplyDeleteI think it's b/c the term "Gold Standard" is a marketing term, the reality is people don't view PM's as money, they view access to credit as money, they focus on their credit scores.
GDXJ - Look at all the volume in Jan, that's selling, IMO
DeleteDon't be caught on the wrong side by the gap up tomorrow, is all I have to say.
ReplyDeleteCrap - my internet was down all day today - think this bad weather got me. Just up in the last half hour.
ReplyDeletePlus, it's my wife's birthday, so making her dinner and taking her out ot a show tonight, so not much time to look into things.
To me, it feels like the market is still mainly taking profits in the 2013 winners and there is a lot of profits to be taken there. But the selling seemed a bit more indiscriminate today, so maybe we are nearing the end.
Hard to know, but playing the odds, it is safer to buy now than a month ago. Probably not a bad time to make some small purchases in case we are getting close, but wouldn't go all in yet.
Value is always important obviously. I wouldn't want to be in any overpriced stocks right now even if we do head higher because I think the rotation into beaten down sectors will continue. Those sectors appear to be the ones like the steels, coals, and others we focus on. I think they will perform well over the intermediate term.
Deleteby the way, not sure you guys saw that Philip Seymour Hoffman passed away. Too bad. He was one of my favorite actors from this era, along with Edward Norton, Sean Penn, Paul Giamatti and DiCaprio.
ReplyDeleteMan, I'm having trouble placing the person (Hoffman). So I'll goog him.
Deletewon an award for Capote (never saw that one). he was in some of my favorite movies including 25th hour, Big Lebowski and Boogie Nights.
DeleteTruman Capote - Oh yeah, I recall that one! Yep, he played that one well, I was intrigued, actually.
DeleteCorn - How bad is the South American drought? Hot Chile has been receiving fire fighting assistance from Brazil, right? Will the real rodents please stand up?
ReplyDelete"Jan 8, 2014 ... Chile - President announces measures to combat poor air quality and curb spread of diseases transmitted by rodents fleeing the fires."
Wow. talk about perfect inverse: high of year for SBUX was 11/6/13. Low of the year for JO was 11/6/13.
ReplyDeleteTLT - Capital still seeking shelter from the storm at a 45º incline, no less.
ReplyDeleteGLDD - Do ya like it?
ReplyDelete"The China VIX that measures volatility is approaching an elevated 30 level showing that traders are experiencing more fear in China than the US. The levels of fear are great at identifying bottoms so the data hints that perhaps China and/or the Asian stock markets may place a near-term bottom before the US markets.
ReplyDeleteFrench companies Total, Renault and others make plans to conduct business with Iran once sanctions are lifted. Human greed and the search for profits will always outweigh concerns over a shaky country developing nuclear weapons, worries over terrorism or human rights violations. Porsche, and Chairmen Wolfgang Porsche and Ferdinand Piech, are sued by seven hedge funds over the failed purchase of Volkswagen AG. Euro zone PMI’s are in line or better than expected with France at 49.3 fighting back towards the expansion level at 50."
I thought I saw really good numbers out of Europe this morning but I could be wrong.
DeleteYes you did see better than expected figures, hardly any mention of the European improvement.
DeleteGNK - Wonder if the lower trend line back to May '13 is the bottom for this cycle? Today's candle is the third test of this line.
ReplyDeleteThey are in dire straits fundamentally, though. Need an agreement by their lenders before 3/31/14 to extend debt or do a massive dilution. Or they need the baltic dry index to skyrocket here. All look unlikely.
DeleteBoth you and I know even though they're in dire straights doesn't mean it can't rally like a mo-fo just before the light switch gets flipped off.
DeleteDire straits not straights, that is, "Sultans Of Swing" trading.
DeleteOr "Southbound Again", who knows.
DeleteVehicle to infrastructure positioning system for automatic crash avoidance? Each vehicle is connected via transponder to an infrastructure tracking system that automatically instructs the vehicle to brake or maneuver, for collision avoidance.
ReplyDeleteAutomatic collision avoidance allows for extensive vehicle weight reduction, increasing fleet fuel efficiency.
We got rain! (South America) Soybeans: "Traders are starting to circulate estimates for next week's USDA report, which should show a huge South American crop offset by slightly tighter U.S. supplies caused by strong demand. Carryout could drop 10 million bushels to 140 million.
ReplyDeleteArgentina is picking up good rains in its central soy belt today, though other parts of the country may get only spotty coverage this week. Parts of southern Brazil also received rain over the weekend, but more is needed after a January that was the hottest on record to the north in Sao Paulo."
"Yes you did see better than expected figures, hardly any mention of the European improvement."
ReplyDeleteThey'll mention it after the correction is over and they need a reason for the rally
Interesting. The weekly RSI_EMA reading from ThinkorSwim for the VIX is at 76, highest level since right before the 2013 rally began and 1st week of August, 2011. Other prior reading this high since bull market began: Week of May 17, 2010.
ReplyDeleteIn prior bull markets this reading got as high as 80 several times and every time except for Oct 2008 it was a great time to buy. Looks like we're almost there if you go by this reading. I'll let you know if it gets there. I suspect if we get to 1710ish (200 DMA) without bouncing we will see this type of reading.
Amazingly the VIX never closed above the current level on a weekly basis from September 2003 thru July 2007 (S&P up 50% during that time period)
DeleteIt also never closed above the current level on a weekly basis from Feb 1991 thru July 1997 (S&P up 150% during that time period).
VIX was flat yesterday, right? Someone mentioned a flat VIX increases the probability selling isn't done.
DeleteJeez look at CLFD. Up 29% YTD
ReplyDeleteI wonder if Verizon is their customer?
DeleteLast time I saw a Bronco moving that slow, it was being driven through LA by OJ Simpson.
ReplyDelete"Congress has passed few major deficit reduction bills or major bipartisan jobs bills in recent years. Tomorrow, the Senate can reduce the deficit and help farmers, ranchers and business owners create jobs by passing the 2014 Farm Bill," Stabenow said.
ReplyDeleteThe bill increases support for fruits and vegetables and local food systems. It also protects food assistance for children, seniors and families while achieving savings in the program by addressing misuse. It is also the country's largest investment in land and water conservation in years, the Senate Agriculture Committee said.
The farm bill is supported by several key farm, food and conservation organizations. A few notable exceptions include the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and the National Pork Producers Council, both of which oppose the bill because it fails to eliminate Country of Origin Labeling."
I'm hunkered down upstairs. Every one here has gotten sick in the last 12 hours. Craziest chit I've ever seen.
ReplyDeleteBut I know I'm doomed.
DeleteWhat did you do to them to make them sick?
DeleteHLF is coming back
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Earnings in the morning!
LNN - This one that makes AG irrigation systems hasn't given back any gains. They also make highway barrier systems, so maybe Chris Christie handed them a great Q last?
DeleteThat's funny from my death bed
DeleteKB - Several Korean credit card companies are disciplined over the security breach that affected one-half of the Korean population. KB Financial loses -3.6%.
ReplyDeleteSouth Korea's Jan coal imports from Australia's Newcastle port double from Dec
"South Korea bought 23.7% of the 9.2 million mt of coal loaded at PWCS' two terminals at Newcastle in January, up from a 10.25% share of December's total tonnage of 9.5 million mt, PWCS data showed. The surge comes after South Korea's parliament in January approved a new tax on thermal coal imports that will kick in July 1."
This is a really good article, it covers all the coal shipped from this port:
Deletehttp://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=776eac35-bf80-43e2-bb0b-6eb2fdd6e75f
Interesting. India is definitely going to have to consume a helluva lot more coal/iron ore/grains if it is going to become the size of China.
DeleteThis is pretty interesting as well:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=8865dba1-664e-41a9-ae2d-f7517a81bc45
The purchase market for dry bulkers is pretty active (this is the used ship market) with prices up 50% in a little over a year for the value of these ships.
Baltic Dry Index falls to 1,084 , down 9
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Down a little in pre market, I have a downside target of $51.08, so we;ll see how close that comes.
ReplyDeleteRH and OSTK were on Fly's buy list last night "on a gap down".
ReplyDeleteANR @ 5.38
ReplyDeleteI think I like it. They're still generating positive free cash flow and trading at 1/4 book. I also like the positive divergences in the weekly chart.
DeleteVery interesting to me that the Eurostoxx 50, the CAC, the FTSE, and the DAX all haven't broken below their December lows.
ReplyDeleteOutperformance.
True, even my Broker was saying all last year that Europe is dead, probably will continue saying this until the top is in. Now they're busily downgrading South America, I think. Except for AGCO, for some reason.
DeleteVE - Looks like a fake move out of the bottom of the pendant to me, these scam artists have increased their objective to $12.20, a few months back it was around $8~9, I think.
These guys(BACML) know what's going on in the world, they have a strong research team that understands economics, they're misleading on purpose
AGCO - "AGCO reported Q4 EPS of $1.40 compared to consensus ($1.35) and BofAMLe ($1.33). AGCO generated stronger than expected FCF. AGCO reiterated its $6.00 EPS guidance for 2014. The company is guiding to net sales of $10.8-11bn (vs consensus $10.5bn). We believe the main focus on the conference call will be the weak performance in South America. Call scheduled for 10:00 am."
ReplyDeleteDOW - 15470 is resistance
ReplyDeleteCanada market also doing well. Underperformed last year, but still at November highs and down just 1% YTD.
ReplyDeletehmmm interesting. what's the multiple on the toronto exchange?
DeleteI'm gonna listen to that ACI call and let you guys know if anything interesting comes up.
ReplyDeleteBAP - Reports tomorrow after close. Since BSBR hasn't vaulted since earnings, maybe a similar result?
ReplyDeleteITUB - Up a mere 8%, well into recovery range from this week's plunge if the gain holds. Maybe it just rips higher from here?
"04-Feb-14 09:46AM Profit at Itaú hits record as revenue jumps; shares soar Reuters +8.72%"
Mark - Two guys that were on the ADES message board when I was in that stock back around $3 (they're still in the stock) are heavy in ACI. I'll see what they're talking about with that one. I'm assuming they got interested after ADES did a clean coal license deal with ACI a few years ago. They seem to be really bullish on ADES
ReplyDeleteShort SPY $175.49
ReplyDeleteDaytrade. Stop is $175.6
DeleteScrew it covered at $175.43. Covered commissions.
DeleteAny idea who the largest met coal players are? ACI said the met coal market is weak and they don't expect a rebound for a while; however they were pretty bullish on thermal coal. Do you know anyone that has a breakdown of met coal %'s by company?
ReplyDeleteI think BTU was touting their Powder River Basin production and if I recall, that was met coal? You have me wondering about that now, so I guess I have to re-read that.
DeleteTCK is a met coal producer, they spent a ton on acquiring that a few years back.
I agree, thermal coal should do well, especially probably needs restocking soon due to winter consumption and this summer I guess more coal fired stations are coming fast and furious.
The only real alternative is nuclear and that takes way more money and planning, so I don't see how coal can't be the real "transition" fuel that maybe sticks around a bit longer than anticipated, ot at least until the perpetual motion machine is perfected.
Maybe things get serious concerning fossil fuels when someone finally places solar cells on the roof of production automobiles while keeping a straight face, which might happen if crash avoidance systems infrastructure can be implemented, like at intersections, where the vehicle automatically is stopped without driver invervention. I think this one has HUGE potential, so keep your ears open..
Report from CIBC on TSX earnings: http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/s_p_tsx_nov13.pdf
ReplyDeleteThe key is that it is currently pretty much valued near it's longer term average, but is more levered to global growth, so could do better if the economy continues to pick up.
TOF- ACI and ANR are the two largest thermal plays in the US.
ReplyDeleteFrom sentimentrader, we should hit new highs in 2 months:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/If-History-Is-Our-Guide-the/2/4/2014/id/53641
Hey, if met coal demand is weak, that probably means iron ore demand is as well, right?
ReplyDeleteI kinda like the thermal coal idea too, it's the fast-track for getting power to the people(who want to adopt western ways yet still will riot)!
CP - the met coal market in the US is weak from what I gather.
DeleteAGCO - These guys were awfully brief on their plans for Russia and the Ukrane, they only simply said they spent a pile of money. My understanding is, tons and tons of new land are being planted there, which is likely to place a squeeze on global prices for a few years.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Fly complained about BALT being up, he doesn't get it. I nearly bought till I saw that, he thinks another leg down is coming. I'm not so sure about that, myself.
Had a bid in to add to my position in Canadian Nursing Home Company Extendicare (EXE.TO, EXETF) get hit at $6.98.
ReplyDeleteThey are in the process of trying to spin off their US homes, but the Canadian ones should be able to support the 7% dividend, so any sale from the US should add to the stock price.
I'm not sure if the markets are done going down or not, but I think this is a good price for this stock.
I love dividends. That's a fat one. I'd have to imagine the Affordable Care Act is causing some issues with the US division no?
DeleteThe baby boomers are getting to the point they can barely walk, is someone yanking the rug from under them?
DeleteCP - ACI mentioned that they suspect that stockpiles on thermal coal are going to be very low after this latest blast of cold weather.
ReplyDeleteI bet they're right, natty is expensive and the old standard coal fired power is cranking back up to fill the void, people are rethinking the planned decommissions, asking questions about wht electric prices aren't dropping with the glut of natty, our transition fuel.
DeleteEEM above the highs from yesterday
ReplyDeleteThis has moved sideways for 48 months now.
Delete8 years if you include the 08 crash.
DeleteSYT/MOO/BG - All beat to hell
ReplyDeleteRSX - How about this baby?
DeleteInteresting article on the sentimentrader thing Brent.
ReplyDeleteWow Peter Schiff came off looking like a total jackass here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/01/tds-wage-against-the-machine/
Doesn't he always??
ReplyDeleteBB- How did you do in Jan.?
ReplyDeleteCoal Demand: As usual, I'm kinda lost, LOL, on why ANI over ANR or BTU, which is the best play! Thermal coal is obviously the current focus b/c it's used for electricity generation, it appears this type of coal comes from the Powder River Basin, right? ACI/ANR/BTU all operate in the PRB? Something gives one the advantage over another? BTU spent a butt-ton of money on new equipment globally everything was replaced, which grenaded their cap-ex, and that's done with now. BTU seems to be having some difficulty in Australia, though. Maybe we're looking for Australian coal play, or US? I'm confused of course, as usual. Or, are we looking for leverage thus interested in a small player rebound?
ReplyDelete"Powder River Basin coal is of the sub-bituminous type and generally mined from the surface. Basin coal, while often lower in energy content, is known for its particularly low sulfur content. "
"Sub-bituminous coal - This is a medium soft coal that contains much less moisture than lignite and is not nearly as crumbly. Like lignite, its primary use is in the generation of electricity. The carbon content of sub-bituminous coal runs from 35%-45% and its heat value generally ranges from 8,000-13,000 Btu's per pound. It is produced primarily along the east side of the Rocky Mountains from eastern Montana to the four corners area where the states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah join."
http://www.rocksandminerals.com/coal.htm
For me I would have picked anyone of those 3. Change my mind!
DeleteI actually picked up ACI into the close. I think they will double within a week or two as soon as the stock moves.
DeleteWas actually thinking about tossing a few shekels into the options ring for shits and giggles. ACI looks ready to fly.
DeleteWell, I dunno for sure, I kinda like that BTU's cap-ex projection is CONSIDERABLY LESS than in previous years, Japan has said it wants to use more US/Canadian coal as a second source, and I did see an article a couple weeks back where Japan said they need the "cleaner US coal", you know how so much misleading BS gets circulated. Near 40% of Australian coal exports go to Japan, and Australia is just around the corner, so maybe the largest Aussie play is the ticket. BTU is kinda trying to come up to speed there, it sounds like from their cc, struggling to extract material due to geologic challanges, sounded like their experience is limited and they're going through a learning curve.
DeleteRIO is looking pretty strong, there may be a reason.
TTM was up pretty nicely today as well.
Whatever wasn't up is probably unpopular for good reason, most likely?
I think the play is the guys with the most exposure to US Thermal Coal given the explosion in Nat Gas prices in the US. These guys are so beaten down that a move from 0.25X book to 0.50X book isn't exactly crazy.
DeleteFBP - Earnings response didn't accomplish a change in sentiment for this Puerto Rico banker. BACML has been touting with their $9 objective. I do like that FBP is a buyer of PR gov debt, though. The chart looks like it's going over the cliff here with a series of new 52wk lows.
ReplyDeleteJCP - Ouchie, yet another new 52wk low for the deluded bag holder!