Thursday, January 2, 2014

Learning to live, learning to trade

Hello my trader friends! Happy New Year to all of you! May this year bring you even more happiness than before and even more prosperity! :)

Over the past months I've been learning to live according to my *experience* of reality, rather than my *thoughts* about it: the experience of different phenomena (sensations, feeling, thoughts) arising and passing inside of Awareness. The phenomena keep changing, but the Awareness stays the same, and as far back as I can remember it was always like this. So I realized that the *real* Master, the real *ME* who is living this life is that Awareness. Interestingly, this awareness has no characteristics and it doesn't know anything about the past or the future. So it turns out that living according to my true nature, living *as* Awareness, implies a totally stress-free life, where all thoughts about potential difficulties in the past or in the future are just experienced as temporary phenomena that have nothing to do with the awareness itself that is observing them, and hence they do not create any negative emotional reactions. I really see no reason to resurrecting the belief that there is some ME separate from the rest of the world lurking in these constantly changing phenomena and starting to stress about how that ME should organize the life around it.

Explaining this idea slightly differently, everyone of us is always being somebody's servant. The vast majority of people are serving constantly changing masters -- thoughts and emotions that arise and pass within the field of awareness. That's why people cannot get lasting happiness -- the master they have pleased yesterday is gone, and a new master demands service and satisfaction every day, sometimes every minute. The alternative is to be the servant of Awareness, whose only motivation is to increase harmony among the phenomena it is whitnessing. It seems a bit strange – why would it have any motivation at all? In fact, initially, when all the phenomena are felt to be independent of the Awareness, no motivation arises. But then, upon a deeper examination, it becomes apparent that Awareness observes not some independent phenomena but only its own manifestations in the form of some phenomena, since if it were possible to separate some phenomena from the Awareness we would then be able to assign some (negative) characteristics to the Awareness. But we can’t do that because only Awareness can exist inside of Awareness, and this realization brings respect and love for all the phenomena experienced, equal to the love one would have for oneself. This is what all religions and mystical traditions have been talking about for thousands of years – ultimately God is everywhere and God is Love. So being a servant of Awareness implies gently applying the force of love to reality, shaping it in the direction of increased harmony. And “learning” how to live according to this new realization means learning not to get tricked into starting to serve some egocentric thoughts/emotions, which sometimes mask themselves very well as being a manifestation of Love for the world.

Using this learning in our family finances, I realized that the biggest mistake I made over the past several years is that I’ve been going long stocks/sectors whose 3-year chart was not in the form of an upward sloping line or a convex cup. This brought a lot of disharmony to our family finances, and it won’t happen again. Having realized this, over the past few months I’ve only been going long stocks that had either one of these two shapes. More specifically, on two separate occasions I bought some June $2.50 BALT calls (at $2.25 and $2.50), and then, when BALT was around $5, I bought some March $5 calls, which I have recently sold because they have doubled in price. Currently, I have sell limit orders for my BALT calls at double their purchase price. If both of those sell limit orders get triggered, I’ll just keep holding my original position in the BALT stock, which I opened at $4.00, until the long-term chart will stop trending up.

Since I still have not paid off my credit card debts, there is no motivation arising inside of Awareness to look for other investments (BALT just happened to be on the radar of Awareness, and so it was natural to buy some calls on it during a pullback).

Also, today Awareness had noticed that EEM dropped to a new 3-month low, and the tops it made over the past 1 year make a nice downward sloping line. This doesn’t fit the definition of a long-term chart in an uptrend, and so I sold today the part of my 401K that I put into LZEMX a few months ago (1/3 of my 401K). My cost basis was $18.40 and judging by EEM’s performance today, LZEMX will close at around $18.00. Better to be out with a minor dent than wait for a turnaround and end up with a complete portfolio destruction, as was the case with my PM sector investments.


Learning to live, learning to trade. :)

63 comments:

  1. Sorry that this is my first post of the year, but in my stream ... (not sure if it's true yet) ...
    verniman ‏@verniman
    Life is short. I take a break to dedicate this first trading day of 2014 in memory of @tlmontana She will be missed.. pic.twitter.com/BOfghSaoKF
    traderstewie ‏@traderstewie
    Hearing now it was from pneumonia and a heart condition.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't say I've come across that name, Kyle. Was she a well-known trader in the Twitter circle?

      Delete
    2. That gal looks pretty young, wonder if she sought medical assistance...

      Delete
    3. Not sure what's going on. Saw this post from Jeff Macke a day or so ago and thought WTF...
      Jeff Macke ‏@JeffMacke
      Maybe she's just hiding. Maybe she's happy. I'm grieving anyway. I miss my friend. @tlmontana
      then the post from verniman today (I follow his posts closely to view market/volume profile interpretations). I followed her as well. Yes, she seems young. Her last posts were from Dec 27th. https://twitter.com/tlmontana

      Delete
  2. At least you can say you weren't in a coma for 5 years.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's very true. We all know people who may as well have been in a coma for 5 years, having learned/given nothing in that period of time.

      Delete
  3. (a) RYWVX closed @ 13.14 (-5%). I ended up buying at a slightly higher price (13.25, off -4.2% from yesterday's close) because I opened at the 1030 am est window.
    (b) EEM closed @ 40.19 (-3.84%). After hours bid/ask 40.24/40.27.
    (c) THD (Thailand) closed @ 62.46 (-9.02%). After hours bid/ask 62.55/62.98.
    (d) EPI closed @ 16.72 (-4.13%). After hours too small for reasonable bid/ask range.

    I don't want to leave the impression that it's easy to buy into selloffs. Contrarian trading is an acquired skill. Most investors think they know why they're buying an asset. The bottom line? They buy because others are buying, and they sell because others are selling. It's how homo sapiens are wired.

    The only way to consistently generate profits, however, is to buy when others are selling, and to sell when others are buying. Most people will nod in agreement. When the time comes, however, they do the reverse.

    That's why trading comes with a steep learning curve.

    I won't try to predict how/where prices move from here. The sector may well continue to pull back, 'testing' the conviction of buyers. That's OK. My plan was to initiate positions in emerging markets this year (which I expect to outperform domestic equities by a wide margin). I opened on a pullback, and plan to trade around the positions-> selling (partial) positions on strength, and adding back on weakness. (In order to make money, I need to be in the game.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd, interestingly, this approach also fits very well into a value-oriented approach to trading, except that working to understand the value of company (or where it's value will be in the future) is the catalyst of when to buy into a sell-off.

      Delete
  4. I was thinking about you yesterday, David! Specifically, the last time we had dinner with vb in Menlo Park. I've always had faith in you. I suspect that by December, you may have it all back, bro. The 'key' is not to give up. (Sure, we all 'give up' temporarily. I've had my share of bad stretches. Then one day we wake up and return with a vengeance. Not sure why life is like that.)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I've alluded in the past to 1973-early '74 being a painful period. But that experience (actually, that string of experiences) gave me a degree of mental fortitude that has bailed me out countless times. Hey, anyone can handle the easy stretches of life. It's the guys who are able to 'come back' and win that really stand out. I guarantee your experiences in 2013 were 'essential preparation' for something you'll face later in life.

      Delete
    2. Actually, I should just stick to my own lessons. Each of us is way beyond anyone else in terms of his/her own path. It's all very personal.

      Delete
    3. Interesting Facts ‏@neverknownfacts
      Most people think happiness is about gaining something, but it's not. It's all about getting rid of the darkness you accumulate.

      Delete
  5. I was narrowly focused on EM today. Look at Europe> trashed as well. I may be (unintentionally) 'talking my book,' but today looks a lot like an across-the-board buying opp.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Good to hear from you David!

    I'm pleased to hear that your life is becoming so good for you and hope this new trading approach works out well.

    ReplyDelete
  7. "During the past two years there have been only two unfilled gaps in the U.S. stock — both were made on the opening trade of the year, posted on the evenings January 1."

    www,peterbrandt.com

    ReplyDelete
  8. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/let-the-three-ms-level-the-market-playing-field-2014-01-02?link=kiosk

    ReplyDelete
  9. http://news.investors.com/010214-684877-emerging-market-etfs-2014-sell-off.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. THD - I might be there with you, BUT I always remember Vad's admonition to always trade reversals from the RHS ...
      http://www.screencast.com/t/8Jw32Y1ZkGoP

      Delete
    2. Kyle - I agree although I do sometimes make exceptions when the RSI_EMA (Think or Swim indicator) is so oversold it's hard to ignore. Then you wait for a day when there is a panic drop on heavy volume and that's a great time to take a stab. That happened recently with ENPH.

      Delete
  10. BY the way David, I'm still holding that SORL that you recommended back in 2012. It is up 71% so far and I think this may be the year it gets to $8.00, which is where I am thinking of selling.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Congratulations on your investment in SORL, BB! A thought did cross my mind to load up on it under $2, but I got distracted by an "opportunity" I saw in junior miners at that time...

      Delete
    2. I bailed on SORL at $3.30 a while back. Now the SORL chart is another example of nice looking cup, where we are clearly on the right side of the V. Now is a good time to enter it, I think, since it just had a nice pullback after shooting above $5 in October. Just placed an order to buy 5 contracts of June $2.50 calls at $1.60.

      Delete
  11. Nice trades David. Have you given any consideration to giving up options? I think I mentioned to you my trading fiasco involving options trading for my furniture business right? I wiped out $50 or $75k in our account (can't remember exact amount) over a 6 month period, a gut check no doubt. As soon as I gave that up I was able to trade/invest much more clearly and with time the temptation of trading options faded. We're now well in the green after including that wipe out. At the time I have a rough time getting over it and am now very thankful for having gone through that mess. I no longer trade options / leverage (well, except for an occasional day trade on margin).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I totally agree with you, TOF. If I had enough cash to play with, I would only buy stocks and would disable my margin. Right now, however, I have so little cash available for investing that unless I get some leverage with options (I try to use deep in the money options with the longest possible expiration date), it wouldn't even be worth the effort to trade.

      Delete
    2. David - don't underestimate the power of picking good stocks. I've twice turned $4,000 into $40,000 in under 2 years through common stocks with zero leverage and options.

      Delete
  12. Fukushima is heating up again, new plumes of steam could indicate trouble brewing in the spent fuel cooling ponds?

    ReplyDelete
  13. "Most people think happiness is about gaining something, but it's not. It's all about getting rid of the darkness you accumulate."

    An even more direct path to happiness is to realize that this darkness has nothing to do with the REAL YOU, which is PURE AWARENESS. Once you choose this view of yourself, all the dark habits lose their grasp over you and slowly start to unwind by themselves, with no wood being added to the fire...

    ReplyDelete
  14. ENPH up again. Good move sticking with it Mark. That bad boy is up 50% in 2.5 weeks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks. TAN is reversing so it probably wont stick. I might peel a few K off. 7 was a short term target.

      Delete
  15. I bought back into BALT at $6.36 on that small piece I'm day trading out of boredom.

    The spot rates are down 10% in the past 2 days, not a great start. However, even at these rates over an entire quarter BALT is highly profitable. And I have faith they go much higher.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Jeez. JRJC up from $1 in July to $7 today. Another China small cap.

    I agree that SORL looks good on this recent pullback.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Replies
    1. Looks like its going to test that $6.05ish area again and put in another higher low. We'll see.

      Delete
  18. CYD - This one's taken quite a plunge too, has China slowed down to a baby crawl again? XIN has come off some too.
    Might be right, the pullback is a buying op. I really wasn't aware China had slipped into recession, my impression is they're still booming, filling apartments with reckless abandon and transforming/modernizing the entire country.

    Maybe a harbinger of a Chinese slowdown coming?

    ReplyDelete
  19. CXO - $102 !! Mark, Mark, Mark, WTF, $95????? Barked the hair-lipped dog! :)

    ReplyDelete
  20. I sold those daytrading shares of BALT at $6.32 and figured I try out ONP which I've been following for a while now. Unfortunately I only got filled on 2k shares at $2.7 before it ran up.

    ReplyDelete
  21. (a) Position in EEM cut in half on the morning spike @ 40.3x.
    (b) Position in THD cut in half on the morning spike aruond 63..
    (c) EPI closed entirely on the (unexpectedly strong) morning spike for a small gain.
    (d) I expected a stronger bounce, and we’re not getting one.
    (e) Absent the bounce, I need to rethink my short-term thesis. I have no problem making changes on a dime, of course.
    (f) The EEM/THD are ‘core’positions I intend to trade around. Whereas RYWVX (being a leveraged fund) is not.


    ReplyDelete
  22. Replies
    1. Now it can rip higher, SOSDD, right?

      Delete
    2. Nice trade. FD: I'm still holding 95% of my position. I have only been trading 5% because I'm bored.

      Delete
    3. It's another hot dog stock (maybe they all are), I hate constantly having my leg dry-humped.

      Delete
  23. CXO - Now green, what's up with this BS??????

    ReplyDelete
  24. Robot flipped short @ 1841 Yesterday.
    I see Bernanke conducted a press conference today at 14:30

    ReplyDelete
  25. AUMN - Now down 10%, nice round trip, must be short covering I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  26. (g) I should know within the next 3minutes whether to opt out of RYWVX (ie, whether to take off my chips off the 6 and 8!).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Alright. Off the 6 and 8. There’s something about today’s action that has me nervous. As in too many traders playing a bounce-> trade’s too crowded.

      Delete
    2. I agree 2nd. On the surface today's action isn't exactly bullish.

      Delete
  27. JMO, but there is zero chance the miners have suddenly moved into a multi-month bull. Even following Monday's panic drop/V recovery. I just don't believe it. Gold prices are headed lower.

    ReplyDelete
  28. "The rally in shares of dry bulk shipping companies could pause this month, Maxim Group wrote in a note to investors. However, if certain stocks in the sector pull back from their current levels, the firm recommends using the weakness as a buying opportunity. WHAT'S NEW: January can be a weak month for dry bulk shipping rates, partly due to the Chinese New Year, which falls on January 31 this year, Maxim Group analyst Noah Parquette wrote. Also, the stocks' strong performance in December could trigger a pause this month, Parquette warned. The shares may remain weak until there is more evidence of sustained shipping rate increases, decreased growth in the number of ships, higher asset values, and more clarity about the outlook for steel production in China, the analyst added. Still, Parquette recommended buying the certain dry bulk shipping stocks on any major pullbacks, naming Baltic Trading (BALT), Star Bulk (SBLK), and Diana Shipping (DSX) as top picks. PRICE ACTION: In mid-afternoon trading, Baltic Trading lost 2.5% to $6.30, Star Bulk fell 1.5% to $12.90, and Diana Shipping declined 0.5% to $13.25."

    ReplyDelete
  29. I guess what pizzes mehoff most is watching DBC tank Here's the shit they do: They rip it up for 30seconds and try to get people chasing then tank it and keep it there all day then bring it back up off the lows but make sure it closes at least some percentage lower than the previous day's close. This maximizes the number of longs that can be trapped the next day, assuming they don't sell once they've achieved a small gain.

    BMY - Nice lookin' bull flag?

    ReplyDelete
  30. GOLD - Caldaro posted an EW analysis comparing the 1980-1982 bear with this one. I've just skimmed it, but his conclusion is

    Notice both Primary A waves are quite similar, in time and price. Our Primary A wave count suggests Gold may have recently bottomed in December. We have a completed Major A @ $1524, a completed Major B @ $1798, and potentially a completed Major C @ $1181 at the December low. Should this be correct we could now witness a 38.2% retracement of the entire first decline, ($1924-$1179), into the $1460 area over the next 3-8 months. This would represent a $280 rise. Which is also similar to the $220+ rises of Primary B and Primary X during the last bear market. “History often repeats, but is never exactly the same.”

    It's at http://caldaro.wordpress.com/ ... 'GOLD: then and now' if you scroll down after the 'friday update'

    ReplyDelete
  31. Long Term Care - Elderly population is expected to double in the next 15 years?

    ReplyDelete
  32. So it's basically going to be 90 degrees colder Sunday for the 9er game than it was for my bike ride today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. -8 degrees here tonight. Jeez

      Delete
    2. We had a record minus 23. Minus 35 with wind chill. Not fun, but the dog still wants to go out and the driveway has to be shovelled.

      Looks like Boston got hammerred by he storm. We missed the big snow..

      Delete
    3. The coldest here I recall was about -12, I think it was, decades ago on a Superbowl Sunday. I remember it mostly b/c I almost burned the house down with the wood stove and my buddy's radiator in his pickup froze.

      Delete
  33. CP- You're about to get 'new posted' again!

    ReplyDelete