It's been five years since Obama's first inauguration. We were posting rapid-fire comments on Cara, helping each other through the worst bear market of our generation.
Well, I guess all the gold investors can be happy they didnt own the worst commodity of the year - corn down 40%.
Nat gas was the best commodity of 2013 and I wouldnt be surprised if it was the start of a longer term trend. On an energy equivilent basis to oil, nat gas should be over $15.
For 2014, my template would be the 1996 market. 2013 was very inline with 1995 as per Ryan Detrick and 1996 was up 22%, in line with my expectation for a 20% 2014. 1996 was another pretty steady year with a sellof in the summer which would be logical to me.
But reality is, I don't pay attention much to the broad markets and just let my view on individual stocks drive my investing. If a stock is cheap, I buy, expensive I sell.
I've been reading The Count of Monte Cristo at night for the past few nights on my iBooks app on my cell phone. I can't remember if I read it before but I don't think I did. What a great book. I am also really pleased with how easy it is to use this iBooks thing.
CKI.TO (CLKFF) - activist investor in Canada; stock is at $8.00, worth $11.00, in the process of realizing the value of a lot of investments, good yield. NWLI - stock is $223, book value is $391 and growing by $25 per year; every bull cycle it has gotten over book, so should again - hopefully soon, but who knows ORI - commercial insurer that is one of the highest yielding, non-utility, dividend aristocrats (25 years of dividend increases). got cheap as own a mortgage insurer, but wrote this off as it was separately incorporated, but GAAP forced inclusion of the numbers, so made results look worse. It's done well, but I think we get 30% of upside this year as it moves back in line with other high-yield insurers like CINF HLC.TO (HLLOF) - hotel chain mainly in the oil sands under $4.00 NAV is around $5.00 and should go above this as oil market gets more interesting AEG - owner of Transamerica Life, but at way less of a valuation than US listed insurers; for example AEG at 60% of book, MET at 100% AGO - municipal bond insurer under book value that should get revalued much higher as the US economy improves and municipal bankruptcies come off the table. IBDRY - Spanish utility, but over half assets outside Spain, that is undervalued due to issues with the Spain market that should get resolved BSBR - Brasil bank that is undervalued and overcapitalized and should do well with the focus on Brazil due to the World Cup and Olympics; plus improving Emerging markets would help AA - should recover as the economy improves and demand increases; low cost producer; now under $11, wouldn't surprise me to see $20 this year. If economy falters (which I don't think), would be a big problem
For #10, I'm tempted to say ING as it is a good play on the recovery in Europe. They have a strong banking position in Holland / Belgium, plus there is the catalyst of spinning off their insurance division, but it has had such a good run this year. My other choice would be an energy company like CNQ or SU, which should do well as energy demand increases with the economy and, hopefully, the Keystone Pipeline gets approved.
Another interesting ones are MRE.TO, probably the most undervalued Auto Parts company out there, but a fight with a previous board member is dragging it down.
And, of course, there is shipper, NM. It has had a great run, and is now valued at book value, so gains will be harder, but the supply/demand fundamentals are such that we could see a run way above book value. I'd just have a hard time buying it here after such a big run in 2013 without the valuation support we had in the past, but I haven't sold any yet.
In general, I'd say the themes I am looking at for 2014 are:
1. Revaluation of Financial Services stocks to normal metrics (again) 2. Consumer job growth and increased consumption 3. Europe coming out of recession 4. Increasing world wide trade and demand for emerging markets
My biggest question is:
Energy - is it a long term buy based on decreasing / more expensive supply or has technology increased supply to reduce long term prices?
I'm starting to fell like it is time to be buying again, so not sure if that is a good thing or not.
Still like LUN.TO, but also PEIX could be a good one and ABR looks interesting.
Would be nice to get a pullback, but sometimes you just have to shut your eyes and buy! I would start small without a pullback, but it has been the right thing to do all year and not sure a calendar change makes a big difference.
Be interesting to see where FIATY opens tomorrow. Looks like Fiat got a good price on their buyout of Chrysler. The combined FIAT will be a top 10 auto maker world-wide, with only a $10B market cap. They will combined sell more cars than Honda, but Honda's market cap is $70B. Not an apples to apples comparison as FIAT is losing money, but they have a lot of good brands like Maserati and Alpha Romeo and are #1 in market share in Brazil, so some good things to build on.
Bb one thing I've noticed with the shippers is not all book values are the same. A lot of the companies that were formed prior to 2008 have carrying values at higher than current market value for their ships because they don't have to mark to market.
(a) Opening a small position in (THD) Thailand @ 63.50 (off -7% from Tuesday’s close, and a 2-year low) on political turmoil. (b) Scaling back into EEM (Emerging Markets) @ 41.05 (a -1.8% discount from Tuesday’s close). Never chase. (c) India’s Sensex falls -2.2% overnight.
Nice. Not sure if I posted it because I was using my phone, but I added to ENPH the other day @ 6.14ish. Only reason I do now is I suspect it will be available again at that price before 7.
BSBR - Added another 1/4 position @ $5.84, what's up with this selling? THD, Hmm, looks like a good scalp if nuthin' else, I'd foolishly be keeping it though! :)
FYI- For our family Christmas party this year we used CMG catering. REALLY liked it. They set you up perfectly and we had tons of food left over. Very well done on their part.
Bought a starter position in Arbor Realty (ABR). Haven't done as much work on it as usual, so will continue to look into it and may add, but feel comfortable enough to buy some now, which helps increase my focus in doing more work on the stock.
It's a complicated company and you have to have faith in management, but seems like a good story, is under book value, has a catalyst to higher earnings as current contracts roll over, has a high yield and should do well as earnings improve. The main reason I bought it is because many of the value guys seem to like it, so I am assuming they've done some due diligence on this and Leon Cooperman is a big owner, so another good data point.
The Reminiscences of a Stock Blogger has a good writeup on it if you want more info: http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2013/09/28/leon-coopermans-roadmap-for-arbor-realty/
I have an mREIT already, might add if it reaches the lowball target assigned by my borker but doubt it does as my broker seems to mislead as often as possible.
>> This is a big money indicator in my opinion which shows the huge pension funds, etc. still are not getting aggressive in this market:
BAML's Sell Side Indicator is on the rise but remains in "extreme bearish" territory, thus continuing a contrarian buy signal for stocks.The latest read of 53.3% comes against the 15-year average of 60.3%. As long as it remains below 54.4%, the buy signal continues (it's spent about all of 2012 and 2013 there). As comparison, the indicator was in the same low-to-mid-50 area at the March 2009 bottom.The index tracks back to 1985, and until the last couple of years, sell-side consensus spent very little time in extreme bearish territory. Now it seems to be the norm.
Always one of the cheap stocks - probably a good buy, but not sure what the catalyst will be to get it going, especially with the new guy in charge of North Korea seeming to be more unstable than his father.
BALT - I think we see $7.15 to $7.35 pretty soon based on the current flag, not sure after that but expect another bull-flag with consolidation period would be my guess. The spotty performance amongst EM's is probably contributing to the resistance?
One stock I've liked for a while and prob should have bought and think its a top pick for this yr is YOKU which is up big today. It's the YouTube of china and has very strong tailwinds going for it. Video consumption will grow for years.
I have been listening to CNBC today they a lot of people are bullish on emerging markets I agree with them however I think the timing is wrong. I still think the bottom is coming in first-quarter
I agree that ALL EM's may have not bottomed yet but some have moved strongly out of their lows, such as EPI, and it's only a matter of time before the laggards follow? I think it's a currency-related phenomenon, which is impossible for me to comprehend. On top of this, the euro is probably due for a beating (how on God's green earth does an uber-strong euro help europe?), which will no doubt be exploited by the illustrious media in order to create further waves of volatility, fear and panic?
I'd be looking at a base metal miner over a gold miner - demand fundamentals are better with an improving economy and the overinvestment wasn't as huge as in golds.
Medical care facilities should do well, I'd think, considering boomers have past their prime and are prone to all the ailments and inflictions that aging entails.
I'm not an expert on GAAP Accounting and I tried doing more digging, but it got pretty deep.
It's my understanding though that if an asset is worth less than it is on the balance sheet and it is not a temporary factor, an impairment charge would be taken to reduce this. NM looked at doing this in the 2008 / 2009 period, but it doesn't look like it was actually done as the market recovered enough.
The trick here is how you figure out the value of an asset and generally it is done on the recoverable value of selling the asset (like in real estate), but for ships, they appear to be judging the value on future expected cash flows.
So, you are right that the ships could be on the books for higher than the actual sale price, but the value must be supported by expected cash flows, so they would be written down if these got way out of line. I'm really not sure how you delve into this as I don't think any company lists the depreciated book value of their individual ships on their financial statements.
I guess the one good indicator for NM is that they have sold a few ships over the last few years and generated profits on these, which says they are on the balance sheet for less than their sale price, but this could be misleading as they might just be selling these to create these profits.
Based on their conservative management style I would say you don't have to worry about this with NM. With others you might. The other thing to consider is avg age of fleet...and again, BALT scores highest on this one. I'm obviously biased, but I think if rates continue to trend higher than the best play is going to be BALT in terms of risk/reward. Others might have more upside, like GNK / EGLE, but you still have to rely on rates to shoot up rather than gradually climb up to avoid any negative dilutive capital events.
I really think the tide has turned for these guys regardless, though. Remember how bearish people were on solars...now look at them. Look at CSIQ - from $2 to $33 today in one year. SPWR, SUNE etc. When that tide turns its hard to stop it. A year ago no one was bullish on these. Sentiment has changed but there is still plenty of skepticism. I think MS came out with a report recently that said there is a small 2 year window of opportunity to trade them before they drop again. I can't find a single analyst calling for BDI rates of 6,000 anytime soon. What if that happens? And what if it is sustainable because all of the shippers / banks refuse to add a lot of supply for fear of going through what they just go through? I still don't think anyone is factoring in this mentality fully. Obviously, if the market falls apart then this trade gets put off another 18 months or so.
What's the sentiment of stock bulls? My guess is be quick to take profits because the Fed stimulus is coming to an end. I really think the majority of people doubt we can power up after through and this event passes.
My understanding is the proposed pipeline, if approved, would amount to a fart in a windstorm in comparison to the total quantity of oil that needs transportation, rail is the real primary solution and I guess that explains why ARII is kicking butt?
ie: I want me some CXO too! Oh crap, it traded to $101 ???????? I missed that...
(a) EEM currently bidding 40.18 (-3.86%) on high volume. EPI @16.67 (-4.4%). THD 62.31 (-9.24%). (b) DJIA -134 (-0.8%). SPX -0.94%. (c) All of the above is slightly reminiscent of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. (d) I like the atmosphere of panic. Is it time to buy? No one really knows until after the fact. Wanting to establish a position in Emerging Markets, I took advantage of this morning’s selloff. I try to manage volatility via position size + timing as best I can.
It's been five years since Obama's first inauguration. We were posting rapid-fire comments on Cara, helping each other through the worst bear market of our generation.
ReplyDeleteHas anyone heard from vb?
DeleteWell, I guess all the gold investors can be happy they didnt own the worst commodity of the year - corn down 40%.
ReplyDeleteNat gas was the best commodity of 2013 and I wouldnt be surprised if it was the start of a longer term trend. On an energy equivilent basis to oil, nat gas should be over $15.
For 2014, my template would be the 1996 market. 2013 was very inline with 1995 as per Ryan Detrick and 1996 was up 22%, in line with my expectation for a 20% 2014. 1996 was another pretty steady year with a sellof in the summer which would be logical to me.
ReplyDeleteBut reality is, I don't pay attention much to the broad markets and just let my view on individual stocks drive my investing. If a stock is cheap, I buy, expensive I sell.
BB- What are you top 10 picks for 2014?
DeleteI've been reading The Count of Monte Cristo at night for the past few nights on my iBooks app on my cell phone. I can't remember if I read it before but I don't think I did. What a great book. I am also really pleased with how easy it is to use this iBooks thing.
ReplyDeleteThe great thing about iBooks is you can get most of the classics for free.
DeleteMark, my top 10 stocks would probably be:
ReplyDeleteCKI.TO (CLKFF) - activist investor in Canada; stock is at $8.00, worth $11.00, in the process of realizing the value of a lot of investments, good yield.
NWLI - stock is $223, book value is $391 and growing by $25 per year; every bull cycle it has gotten over book, so should again - hopefully soon, but who knows
ORI - commercial insurer that is one of the highest yielding, non-utility, dividend aristocrats (25 years of dividend increases). got cheap as own a mortgage insurer, but wrote this off as it was separately incorporated, but GAAP forced inclusion of the numbers, so made results look worse. It's done well, but I think we get 30% of upside this year as it moves back in line with other high-yield insurers like CINF
HLC.TO (HLLOF) - hotel chain mainly in the oil sands under $4.00 NAV is around $5.00 and should go above this as oil market gets more interesting
AEG - owner of Transamerica Life, but at way less of a valuation than US listed insurers; for example AEG at 60% of book, MET at 100%
AGO - municipal bond insurer under book value that should get revalued much higher as the US economy improves and municipal bankruptcies come off the table.
IBDRY - Spanish utility, but over half assets outside Spain, that is undervalued due to issues with the Spain market that should get resolved
BSBR - Brasil bank that is undervalued and overcapitalized and should do well with the focus on Brazil due to the World Cup and Olympics; plus improving Emerging markets would help
AA - should recover as the economy improves and demand increases; low cost producer; now under $11, wouldn't surprise me to see $20 this year. If economy falters (which I don't think), would be a big problem
For #10, I'm tempted to say ING as it is a good play on the recovery in Europe. They have a strong banking position in Holland / Belgium, plus there is the catalyst of spinning off their insurance division, but it has had such a good run this year.
My other choice would be an energy company like CNQ or SU, which should do well as energy demand increases with the economy and, hopefully, the Keystone Pipeline gets approved.
Another interesting ones are MRE.TO, probably the most undervalued Auto Parts company out there, but a fight with a previous board member is dragging it down.
And, of course, there is shipper, NM. It has had a great run, and is now valued at book value, so gains will be harder, but the supply/demand fundamentals are such that we could see a run way above book value. I'd just have a hard time buying it here after such a big run in 2013 without the valuation support we had in the past, but I haven't sold any yet.
In general, I'd say the themes I am looking at for 2014 are:
Delete1. Revaluation of Financial Services stocks to normal metrics (again)
2. Consumer job growth and increased consumption
3. Europe coming out of recession
4. Increasing world wide trade and demand for emerging markets
My biggest question is:
Energy - is it a long term buy based on decreasing / more expensive supply or has technology increased supply to reduce long term prices?
Thanks Buddy. I took a screen shot so I wont lose it. Looks like I have some homework.
DeleteNo problem.
DeleteI'm starting to fell like it is time to be buying again, so not sure if that is a good thing or not.
Still like LUN.TO, but also PEIX could be a good one and ABR looks interesting.
Would be nice to get a pullback, but sometimes you just have to shut your eyes and buy! I would start small without a pullback, but it has been the right thing to do all year and not sure a calendar change makes a big difference.
Be interesting to see where FIATY opens tomorrow. Looks like Fiat got a good price on their buyout of Chrysler. The combined FIAT will be a top 10 auto maker world-wide, with only a $10B market cap. They will combined sell more cars than Honda, but Honda's market cap is $70B. Not an apples to apples comparison as FIAT is losing money, but they have a lot of good brands like Maserati and Alpha Romeo and are #1 in market share in Brazil, so some good things to build on.
ReplyDeleteBb one thing I've noticed with the shippers is not all book values are the same. A lot of the companies that were formed prior to 2008 have carrying values at higher than current market value for their ships because they don't have to mark to market.
ReplyDeleteThanks TOF, I will look into that.
DeleteIt's another reason I like balt. They have carrying values that are now at or below market values
Delete(a) Opening a small position in (THD) Thailand @ 63.50 (off -7% from Tuesday’s close, and a 2-year low) on political turmoil.
ReplyDelete(b) Scaling back into EEM (Emerging Markets) @ 41.05 (a -1.8% discount from Tuesday’s close). Never chase.
(c) India’s Sensex falls -2.2% overnight.
Thd went from 18 to 96. Wouldn't be surprised to see more giveback
DeleteThat's over 5 years. My time horizon doesn't stretch that far.
DeleteI knew I should have take a flyer on UNG/UGAZ at Tuesday's close.
ReplyDeletePLUG- None of you guys could have figured this one out 6 months ago when it was .15?
ReplyDeleteSD was trading @ $6.30 PM
ReplyDeleteAdded to EEM @ 40.79.
ReplyDeleteOpening EPI @ 16.95.
ReplyDeleteAdded last bit of Balt at 6.12
ReplyDeleteDude! Where the F are you putting it??
DeleteSold the same shares at 6.26. I thinking this consolidates sideways for another week.
DeleteMy guess is if Balt runs higher soon then it makes slightly higher lows the next week. I'm looking to add back at 6.12 to 6.15
DeleteNice. Not sure if I posted it because I was using my phone, but I added to ENPH the other day @ 6.14ish. Only reason I do now is I suspect it will be available again at that price before 7.
DeleteYour post reminded me to look at the chart, which looked surprisingly good.
DeleteAdded to THD @ 62.74.
ReplyDeleteDamn bro. .02 off the bottom! GL!
DeleteSPY- Wow, it's moving fast.
ReplyDeleteIn the WRONG direction!!!!!!!!!
DeleteBSBR - Added another 1/4 position @ $5.84, what's up with this selling? THD, Hmm, looks like a good scalp if nuthin' else, I'd foolishly be keeping it though! :)
ReplyDeleteFYI- For our family Christmas party this year we used CMG catering. REALLY liked it. They set you up perfectly and we had tons of food left over. Very well done on their part.
ReplyDelete(a) Last of EEM allocation @ 40.65.
ReplyDelete(b) Will reopen RYWVX @ the 1030 am window.
(c) Happy New Year to fund managers!
Mark good move on enph. I like it. I just think Balt goes parabolic in next 6 months so long as the market doesn't shit the bed
ReplyDeleteBALT - Sheesh, yes, I chickened out on low $6 again....
ReplyDeleteTHD - Really tempting, even though I hate ETF's
ReplyDeleteSCCO is up pretty strongly, that must mean copper is too.
I really think Emerging Markets will outperform in 2014.
DeleteURG - Hard to ignore this chart.
ReplyDeleteEUO - Up too.
ReplyDeleteBought a starter position in Arbor Realty (ABR). Haven't done as much work on it as usual, so will continue to look into it and may add, but feel comfortable enough to buy some now, which helps increase my focus in doing more work on the stock.
ReplyDeleteIt's a complicated company and you have to have faith in management, but seems like a good story, is under book value, has a catalyst to higher earnings as current contracts roll over, has a high yield and should do well as earnings improve. The main reason I bought it is because many of the value guys seem to like it, so I am assuming they've done some due diligence on this and Leon Cooperman is a big owner, so another good data point.
The Reminiscences of a Stock Blogger has a good writeup on it if you want more info:
http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2013/09/28/leon-coopermans-roadmap-for-arbor-realty/
I have an mREIT already, might add if it reaches the lowball target assigned by my borker but doubt it does as my broker seems to mislead as often as possible.
DeleteFMAR - Looks like this one isn't trading anymore.
ReplyDeletevb- Was thinking of her the other day, hope she's doing okay!!!!!
ReplyDelete>> This is a big money indicator in my opinion which shows the huge pension funds, etc. still are not getting aggressive in this market:
ReplyDeleteBAML's Sell Side Indicator is on the rise but remains in "extreme bearish" territory, thus continuing a contrarian buy signal for stocks.The latest read of 53.3% comes against the 15-year average of 60.3%. As long as it remains below 54.4%, the buy signal continues (it's spent about all of 2012 and 2013 there). As comparison, the indicator was in the same low-to-mid-50 area at the March 2009 bottom.The index tracks back to 1985, and until the last couple of years, sell-side consensus spent very little time in extreme bearish territory. Now it seems to be the norm.
http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_18602805.jpg?1388676117
I wish I could find that report on my broker's site, it's a jumbled mess.
DeleteKorea Electric Power Corp.: Nuclear utilization concerns are behind us; retain Buy
ReplyDeleteAlways one of the cheap stocks - probably a good buy, but not sure what the catalyst will be to get it going, especially with the new guy in charge of North Korea seeming to be more unstable than his father.
DeleteI wonder if that new guy will make it past his 16th birthday?
DeletePLUG - That was a bull flag formation, wasn't it? Target looks like ~$3.47 ???
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Only up 16%, LOL, as if it really helps anyone.
ReplyDeleteBALT - I think we see $7.15 to $7.35 pretty soon based on the current flag, not sure after that but expect another bull-flag with consolidation period would be my guess. The spotty performance amongst EM's is probably contributing to the resistance?
ReplyDeleteOne stock I've liked for a while and prob should have bought and think its a top pick for this yr is YOKU which is up big today. It's the YouTube of china and has very strong tailwinds going for it. Video consumption will grow for years.
ReplyDeleteI have been listening to CNBC today they a lot of people are bullish on emerging markets I agree with them however I think the timing is wrong. I still think the bottom is coming in first-quarter
ReplyDeleteEveryone is bearish/skeptical gold/silver/miners....
DeleteI agree that ALL EM's may have not bottomed yet but some have moved strongly out of their lows, such as EPI, and it's only a matter of time before the laggards follow? I think it's a currency-related phenomenon, which is impossible for me to comprehend.
DeleteOn top of this, the euro is probably due for a beating (how on God's green earth does an uber-strong euro help europe?), which will no doubt be exploited by the illustrious media in order to create further waves of volatility, fear and panic?
I'd be looking at a base metal miner over a gold miner - demand fundamentals are better with an improving economy and the overinvestment wasn't as huge as in golds.
DeleteAnd, it's dangerous to be positive PM's just b/c everyone else is negative on them, IMO.
DeleteMedical care facilities should do well, I'd think, considering boomers have past their prime and are prone to all the ailments and inflictions that aging entails.
ReplyDeleteREFR: Smoke em if you got em. Beautiful chart too.
ReplyDeleteWell I bought those shares of BALT back at $6.31. Looking to trade a small amount since I have nothing else that interests me...
ReplyDeleteSold em at $6.4
DeleteI wish they'd knock if back to mid $5's again but I know it's not gonna happen.
DeleteYRCW from $17 to $21 intraday. Wow. If only we went balls to the wall at $8 just a few weeks ago.
ReplyDeleteSPY - Gotta love Tuesday's bull trap, no doubt a stunt devised to instill fear.
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Now up +28%, the market just can't price this one apparently, it's priceless........
ReplyDeleteOh, maybe today all these turds are running under the assumption tax selling season has ended?
DeleteBALT - We had a hammer formation Tuesday on the weekly, maybe we can at least get a retrace to test $5.80ish?
ReplyDeleteTOF, re NM,
ReplyDeleteI'm not an expert on GAAP Accounting and I tried doing more digging, but it got pretty deep.
It's my understanding though that if an asset is worth less than it is on the balance sheet and it is not a temporary factor, an impairment charge would be taken to reduce this. NM looked at doing this in the 2008 / 2009 period, but it doesn't look like it was actually done as the market recovered enough.
The trick here is how you figure out the value of an asset and generally it is done on the recoverable value of selling the asset (like in real estate), but for ships, they appear to be judging the value on future expected cash flows.
So, you are right that the ships could be on the books for higher than the actual sale price, but the value must be supported by expected cash flows, so they would be written down if these got way out of line. I'm really not sure how you delve into this as I don't think any company lists the depreciated book value of their individual ships on their financial statements.
I guess the one good indicator for NM is that they have sold a few ships over the last few years and generated profits on these, which says they are on the balance sheet for less than their sale price, but this could be misleading as they might just be selling these to create these profits.
Based on their conservative management style I would say you don't have to worry about this with NM. With others you might. The other thing to consider is avg age of fleet...and again, BALT scores highest on this one. I'm obviously biased, but I think if rates continue to trend higher than the best play is going to be BALT in terms of risk/reward. Others might have more upside, like GNK / EGLE, but you still have to rely on rates to shoot up rather than gradually climb up to avoid any negative dilutive capital events.
DeleteI really think the tide has turned for these guys regardless, though. Remember how bearish people were on solars...now look at them. Look at CSIQ - from $2 to $33 today in one year. SPWR, SUNE etc. When that tide turns its hard to stop it. A year ago no one was bullish on these. Sentiment has changed but there is still plenty of skepticism. I think MS came out with a report recently that said there is a small 2 year window of opportunity to trade them before they drop again. I can't find a single analyst calling for BDI rates of 6,000 anytime soon. What if that happens? And what if it is sustainable because all of the shippers / banks refuse to add a lot of supply for fear of going through what they just go through? I still don't think anyone is factoring in this mentality fully. Obviously, if the market falls apart then this trade gets put off another 18 months or so.
What's the sentiment of stock bulls? My guess is be quick to take profits because the Fed stimulus is coming to an end. I really think the majority of people doubt we can power up after through and this event passes.
ReplyDeletesorry...meant to say power up through and after this event passes.
ReplyDeleteI'm getting paid today for at least having tinker balls the other day.
ReplyDeleteDude on CNBC said this will probably be the only buying opp. we get this year.
ReplyDelete1 down day and its a huge buying opportunity - where do they find these guys?
DeleteYeah, it was actually pretty funny. He was a NYSE MM.
DeleteCXO?? Pretty wild. Might be part of the train mess. Take off 2 bucks and I'm, buying.
My understanding is the proposed pipeline, if approved, would amount to a fart in a windstorm in comparison to the total quantity of oil that needs transportation, rail is the real primary solution and I guess that explains why ARII is kicking butt?
Deleteie: I want me some CXO too! Oh crap, it traded to $101 ???????? I missed that...
(a) EEM currently bidding 40.18 (-3.86%) on high volume. EPI @16.67 (-4.4%). THD 62.31 (-9.24%).
ReplyDelete(b) DJIA -134 (-0.8%). SPX -0.94%.
(c) All of the above is slightly reminiscent of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.
(d) I like the atmosphere of panic. Is it time to buy? No one really knows until after the fact. Wanting to establish a position in Emerging Markets, I took advantage of this morning’s selloff. I try to manage volatility via position size + timing as best I can.
Of course!!! HLF is green... and the beat (down) goes on.
ReplyDeleteSTSI dang sure isn't green!
DeleteFlip the calendar:
ReplyDeleteChinese small caps outperforming
Gold outperforming
TZA outperforming.
It's 2008 all over again.
I'm pretty sure you're kidding!!!
Deletehey look on the bright side: dry bulk shippers were up huge in the 1st half of that year!
DeleteI'm having difficulty buying into that bulk shipping up everything else down theory.
DeleteHII has said they will be concentrating on more than just military vessels in their Louisiana yard, maybe oil rigs, I dunno the details.
NQ bidding $16.2. Up 50% in a couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteBCH - I love this ticker
ReplyDeleteSilver - Any day is a good day to short this one.
ReplyDeleteNEW POST
ReplyDeleteWMT - Wal Mart China recalls donkey meat b/c it was found to contain meat from other animals, like fox.
ReplyDeleteWhat's wrong with fox???????