In 1974 I dropped out of college for the second time in as many years, and embarked on another road trip from Ann Arbor to San Francisco. The opening notes to three ballads have the ability to instantly beam me back to that time.
(a) Please Come To Boston. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjraHR9yeAI
(b) Long, Long Time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sN80LpUD8U
(c) Second Avenue. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Crvp8pxCt30
For some reason, 2014 feels a lot like 1974.
We hit new highs in the US indexes in March. Emerging Markets spike +10%. Then we retest recent lows.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKkZcgrec8A
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUu1MvnAecc
ReplyDeleteI wanna buy a pinball machine. Any good choices?....and no, OCLS is not an option :)
ReplyDeleteMy favourite was The Black Knight. I think it was the first multi-ball machine with 2 levels.
DeleteI've got a friend who collects them and they are surprisingly expensive for the popular old ones.
If you are looking for a new one, I have no idea.
Cool!! Thanks!
Deletehttp://m.ebay.com/itm/251442263782
DeleteBaltic dry index up to 1130 today per dryships website. Hopefully it's done crashing. It came down to prior highs from 2012/13 and looks like it's bouncing now
ReplyDeletePM's - Interesting the big boys haven't stepped in at 04:00am to spank the doomsday speculators, wonder when they plan on doing that?
ReplyDeletehave you seen the moves in China lately? definitely interesting in light of the excessive negativity lately on EMs
DeleteNah, haven't looked yet actually but plan to.
DeleteFound this today, George Harrison's last performance, three acoustic songs near the end. One he never sang before called "If you don't now where your going, any road will get you there."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjWTFlg2Er0
Great song! It's the first song on 'Brainwashed'.
Deletehttp://www.amazon.com/Brainwashed-George-Harrison/dp/B00006LSM3/ref=sr_1_20?ie=UTF8&qid=1392666760&sr=8-20&keywords=george+harrison
Thanks man, did not know about this album.
Deletejust bought it!!! you can feel the islands vibe.
DeleteWell first of all, I fail to see how one could actually become lost on an island, and don't most all the roads pretty much take you back to the same place you came from? :)
DeleteT3d - Love that interview. I remember feeling sad when I heard about George Harrison's death and I wasn't even alive when the Beatles were around.
DeleteAside from his incredible music, the guy was true to himself and his beliefs and never waivered. I really respect that.
DeleteWhen I think of how wise he was at such an early age. The interview kind of gives us a glimpse.
I still put on All Things Must Pass and take it in. Interesting it was produced by Phil Spector.
Brainwashed is a collection of songs he wanted to do before he died, some favorites that influenced him in his life (Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea) and then some things he felt he needed to say before he left.
You have time for pinball, Mark?
ReplyDeleteI've always liked the long term value potential of NILE and think the latest drop is another opportunity to add to it. I just think they will eventually start adding a lot more complimentary products to their diamonds core business like FLWS has started doing with non flowers categories.
ReplyDeleteshares outstanding have been shrinking rapidly:
Deletehttp://financials.morningstar.com/income-statement/is.html?t=NILE®ion=usa&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA
over 16 million down to 12.8 million as of last quarter in just 4 years. the company throws off $20 to $40 million per year in free cash flow vs a market cap of $420 Million. that's a very low multiple for a growing online only brand with significant potential to grow longer term. its a competitive industry but which one isn't?
It is an interesting stock and they are doing well. The hard part for me with stocks like this is that the valuation is still quite high. So, if the growth they are projecting isn't there, the stock will come down. But they do have a good niche, so I'm not suggesting this will happen, but for me, I'd like to see the stock down a lot further to help reduce risk.
DeleteI do think as a more general trend, people are getting more comfortable with on-line shopping and this will continue to grow and is a good are to be looking.
I turn 60 in about two months. I can remember a time when that seemed like time to hang it up. Now it feels more like I'm hitting my stride. Many of us (speaking mainly for myself) took a long time to grow up.
ReplyDelete60 now sure is different than it was even 25 years ago. People feel a lot better and can still do a lot with their lives.
DeleteThe way I figure it is, if I were 60, 25 years ago, that would make me about 85 today! Not much time remaining, guys:)
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJ8zIA14oNI
ReplyDeleteAmazing artist 2nd, man I'm glad I lived through this period. one more,
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A
Silver appears to be rocking tonight:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
Good value investor Tweedy Browne has BSBR as their 2nd largest holding at higher prices:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/money-managers-tweedy-browne-report-225243323.html
FLWS - Very tight BB's, suggesting a big move coming.
ReplyDeleteTWGP - Don't you guys think this one is overdone?
ReplyDeleteAm I crazy or is the move in the Baltic Dry Index over the past few years almost identical to the move in Facebook before it went nuts?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
vs
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FB+Interactive#symbol=fb;range=2y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
Take a look at a few things:
(1) FB: July 2012 peak then crater below $20 where it bottomed out and peaked a couple of times at $23ish. Similar to Late 2011 move in BDIY to 2200 then crater to 600ish where it bottomed and peaked a couple of times at 1100.
(2) FB: finally broke through $23 peak and ran up to the July 2012 peak again before fizzling out and retesting the prior resistance level in the $23 area. Similarly, BDIY finally broke through the 1100 peak and ran up to the late 2011 area (2,200ish) before fizzling out and retesting the prior resistance level in the 1,100 area.
I don't think it really means much but I find it interesting that a similar pattern developed in polar opposite areas of markets. I still think those 2009/2010 peaks in the 4,000 to 4,500 areas will be tested at some point this year or next.
Remember, a consistent spot rate in the 4,000s means $4ish EPS and $3.50ish annual dividends for BALT. I think the stock would trade up to $30 in that scenario.
DeleteTOF- Pick up line 3. Jenny on hold.
DeleteTof, glad you liked it. I'm a fish like George. If you ever have the time watch or listen to a Concert for George, really good.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9Dr1anRP9w
CP, right hard to get lost on an island, just walk opposite from the mountains (Hawaii). Most people here get in trouble when they wander from the trails or get lost in a rain forest hiking.
Nikkei 225 up big
Thank you so much for this link.
DeleteI think the idea is to get off the beaten path and get lost.
Now, for BBC Two's award-winning strand This World, Peston reveals what has actually happened inside China since the economic collapse in the west in 2008. It is a story of spending and investment on a scale never seen before in human history - 30 new airports, 26,000 miles of motorways and a new skyscraper every five days have been built in China in the last five years. But, in a situation eerily reminiscent of what has happened in the west, the vast majority of it has been built on credit.
ReplyDeleteRead more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/02/china-fooled-world-but-it-cannot-last.html#MF018bxi4H4my86Q.99
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/02/china-fooled-world-but-it-cannot-last.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29
If China is that bad off, maybe they have no choice but to burn coal and cannot afford clean power?
DeleteBDI 1146 +16
ReplyDeleteTWGP - Up, what are the chances this one goes back to $22?
ReplyDeletePinball - BALT qualifies! :)
ReplyDeleteHXM - Not sure what's been going on with this one lately but it's been lifting.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Hard to ignore this action.
ReplyDeleteThey executed poorly on V-day. Bad weather and high demand (probably due to bad weather) caused a lot of problems.
DeleteIf this is a 1-time issue which I think (hope) it is, then it is a buying opportunity. If it does tarnish the brand long term or is signs of true company issues, then it would be better to sell.
I am holding and think we are back up to $5.50 in a few weeks.
Yeah, I'm not the only one who read the negative articles, I guess. I wanna see how this plays out before jumping to conclusions.
DeleteENPH - "Q4 2013 Enphase Energy Inc Earnings Release - After Market Close"
ReplyDeleteDude - solar stocks. Exploding.
ReplyDeleteThere was new urgency to the discussion over rapid global warming this weekend.
DeleteGood one - lol!
DeleteIf any of you are interested in Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO), interesting read about the CEO and the projects at:
ReplyDeletehttp://ceo.ca/2014/02/17/on-an-african-dog-and-pony-show-with-billionaire-mining-mogul-robert-friedland/
I am, and I'll be looking that over, thanks!
DeletePNPFF hit my sell limits today at $0.46 and $0.50, for the shares I purchased at $0.36. So now I have some trading cash on my hands. Are there any good opportunities out there?
ReplyDeleteWell, I am simply amazed that BALT has rebounded to its previous high without a corresponding rise in BDI to its previous high. Looks like smart money is buying with the understanding that BALT has turned a corner, while the "crowd" is being left behind. BDI seems to have made a bottom after its recent pullback and is starting to perk up. I am afraid to make a guess how high BALT will go when BDI rebounds to its January highs. Probably to $10. So I just purchased 5 September $5 calls on BALT at $2.00, to make sure that I participate a little in its upcoming run to new highs.
Also, FSLR chart since mid-2012 has a clear upward-sloping line connecting the bottoms, and now FSLR seems to have put in yet another higher low and is on the way to making new highs. So I just purchased 1 September $50 call on FSLR at $12.75.
Now I have some diversification in my port away from the precious metals theme. It was the lack of diversification that killed me in 2012/2013...
I still plan on adding to BALT on weakness, myself. I think this week is op-ex, not sure what to expect....
DeletePlayers...
ReplyDeleteExpectations of an early spring are diminished, this weather from hell may last until August! :)
ReplyDeleteIt's been crazy - another 5 or 6 inches of snow last night. Some of the snow banks near the house are 7 feet high - usually they don't get over 4.
DeleteBooked a trip to Miami for the end of March.
Snowmagedden, LOL! Actually, it's mostly been colder and wetter than normal for us, back in the 60's we used to get up to a few feet of snow, light and powdery type, but anymore we get maybe 4" of heavy shaved-ice snowcone like stuff, by the time that melts then it repeats.
Delete(a) Adding to PBR (Petrobras) @ 11.15.
ReplyDelete(b) Scaling into EWZ (Brazil) @ 39.45.
(c) Scaling into BSBR (Banco Santander) @ 4.80.
(d) Scaling into ECH (Chile) @ 43.87.
DSX - " Shippers fall after Diana Shipping misses expectations at theflyonthewall.com"
ReplyDeleteI think DRYS has earnings today. Still haven't seen a confirmed date for BALT. I'm sure Mark has it on his bourgeois Schwab trading platform. Talk about insider info.
ReplyDeleteAnyone notice that EWI is skyrocketing lately? Up like 7% on the year.
Anyone listen to the DSX call? I know they've been debbie downers, rightfully so, for a long time.
GLUU didn't exactly come unglued huh?
By the way, how come none of us are playing the biotechs more aggressively? Shit 2nd's ZGNX is up over 50% since he mentioned it.
Let's back up and buy them, NVDA, CXO, BAS too........!?!?!? Hell, even I'll take even NRG with the startup of thermal solar and their deal with Branson to paste an island with solar panels
DeleteKB jumped today too.
TOF-
ReplyDelete1- Fourth Quarter Earnings Announcement Expected: Earnings will tentatively be announced Wednesday. The consensus earnings are $0.01, with a high and low of $0.06 and -$0.04, respectively. The mean has trended upward from the last estimate of -$0.01.
2- Yep.
3-No.
4-Nope
5- I'm lazy.
Icahn doesn't seem like such a putz to me.......
ReplyDelete12:35PM Actavis to buy Forest for $25 billion; windfall for investor Icahn Reuters
See TLM.
DeleteMaybe he's a putz when it comes to the oil/energy business.... Permian is the place to be.
DeleteCVI hasn't done well despite the refinery is back up running either, and Icahn owns most of it. I think inland refiners might be left out of the crude->refinery->export spread, gasoline gets trapped inland, just coastal refiners.
DeleteEPD is part of the coastal refiner play.
OINK - Something's building in this chart.....
ReplyDeleteENPH- All about as expected. I'll listen to the call.
ReplyDeleteI was expecting $20 in AH????
DeleteI've been on the call for 10 minutes and am ready to shot myself.
DeleteMan, I don't know how this will go tomorrow.
DeleteOkay, so why do you propose shooting yourself? BTW, that's a major violation of the rules without a majority vote first!
DeleteBACML had a $12 target on it as of close, maybe this kept me away....
DeleteBACML was on the call. Let me know if they change the PT!!! Hopefully they will update it tonight.
DeleteI don't know...are people really looking to short this market again? I'm still seeing skepticism which is great I guess. The nasdaq just broke to new highs, IEV (Europe) is at new highs for the past year, the Russell 2000 was up big today, the S&P is near all time highs.
ReplyDeleteThe same old gaggle of doom and gloomers are looking to short this market, SOSDD
DeleteBut I have to wonder if maybe it's time, considering BACML just came out with a huge BUY NOW message over the weekend.
DeleteToronto up for 10 days in a row today at a 3 year high (we are still working off the commodity bubble). But still, the market up here keeps rocking. Today it was health care care leading the way - surprisingly the PM's had a weak day.
DeleteDSX - Aside from book value, it's not readily apparent to me why DSX is any worse than BALT
ReplyDeleteBDI - I hope the BDI jumps 500pts overnight, so we can leave those a-holes that sold today in the dust.
ReplyDelete